Repeated Games and Reputations
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Repeated Games and Reputations Long-Run Relations...

Repeated Games and Reputations

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Repeated Games and Reputations Long-Run Relationships George J. Mailath and Larry Samuelson

1 2006

1 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With ofﬁces in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam

Copyright © 2006 by Oxford University Press Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mailath, George Joseph. Repeated games and reputations : long-run relationships / George J. Mailath, Larry Samuelson. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13 978-0-19-530079-6 ISBN 0-19-530079-3 1. Game theory. 2. Economics, Mathematical. I. Samuelson, Larry, 1953– II. Title. HB144.M32 2006 519.3—dc22 2005049518

1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper

To Loretta G JM

To Mark, Brian, and Samantha LS

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Acknowledgments

We thank the many colleagues who have encouraged us throughout this project. In particular, we thank Martin Cripps, Jeffrey Ely, Eduardo Faingold, Drew Fudenberg, Qingmin Liu, Stephen Morris, Georg Nöldeke, Ichiro Obara, Wojciech Olszewski, Andrew Postlewaite, Patrick Rey, Andrzej Skrzypacz, and Ennio Stacchetti for comments on various chapters; Roberto Pinheiro for exceptionally close proofreading; Bo Chen, Emin Dokumaci, Ratul Lahkar, and José Rodrigues-Neto for research assistance; and a large collection of anonymous referees for detailed and helpful reports. We thank Terry Vaughn and Lisa Stallings at Oxford University Press for their help throughout this project. We also thank our coauthors, who have played an important role in shaping our thinking for so many years. Their direct and indirect contributions to this work are signiﬁcant. We thank the University of Copenhagen and University College London for their hospitality in the ﬁnal stages of the book. We thank the National Science Foundation for supporting our research that is described in various chapters.

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Contents

1 Introduction 1.1 Intertemporal Incentives 1.2 The Prisoners’ Dilemma 1.3 Oligopoly 1.4 The Prisoner’s Dilemma under Imperfect Monitoring 1.5 The Product-Choice Game 1.6 Discussion 1.7 A Reader’s Guide 1.8 The Scope of the Book

Part I

1 1 3 4 5 7 8 10 10

Games with Perfect Monitoring 2 The Basic Structure of Repeated Games with Perfect Monitoring 2.1

2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5

2.6

2.7

The Canonical Repeated Game 2.1.1 The Stage Game 2.1.2 Public Correlation 2.1.3 The Repeated Game 2.1.4 Subgame-Perfect Equilibrium of the Repeated Game The One-Shot Deviation Principle Automaton Representations of Strategy Proﬁles Credible Continuation Promises Generating Equilibria 2.5.1 Constructing Equilibria: Self-Generation 2.5.2 Example: Mutual Effort 2.5.3 Example: The Folk Theorem 2.5.4 Example: Constructing Equilibria for Low δ 2.5.5 Example: Failure of Monotonicity 2.5.6 Example: Public Correlation Constructing Equilibria: Simple Strategies and Penal Codes 2.6.1 Simple Strategies and Penal Codes 2.6.2 Example: Oligopoly Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players 2.7.1 Minmax Payoffs 2.7.2 Constraints on Payoffs

15 15 15 17 19 22 24 29 32 37 37 40 41 44 46 49 51 51 54 61 63 66

x

Contents

3 The Folk Theorem with Perfect Monitoring 3.1 3.2

3.3 3.4

3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8

Examples Interpreting the Folk Theorem 3.2.1 Implications 3.2.2 Patient Players 3.2.3 Patience and Incentives 3.2.4 Observable Mixtures The Pure-Action Folk Theorem for Two Players The Folk Theorem with More than Two Players 3.4.1 A Counterexample 3.4.2 Player-Speciﬁc Punishments Non-Equivalent Utilities Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players Convexifying the Equilibrium Payoff Set Without Public Correlation Mixed-Action Individual Rationality

4 How Long Is Forever? 4.1 Is the Horizon Ever Inﬁnite? 4.2 Uncertain Horizons 4.3 Declining Discount Factors 4.4 Finitely Repeated Games 4.5 Approximate Equilibria 4.6 Renegotiation 4.6.1 Finitely Repeated Games 4.6.2 Inﬁnitely Repeated Games

5 Variations on the Game Random Matching 5.1.1 Public Histories 5.1.2 Personal Histories 5.2 Relationships in Context 5.2.1 A Frictionless Market 5.2.2 Future Beneﬁts 5.2.3 Adverse Selection 5.2.4 Starting Small 5.3 Multimarket Interactions 5.4 Repeated Extensive Forms 5.4.1 Repeated Extensive-Form Games Have More Subgames 5.4.2 Player-Speciﬁc Punishments in Repeated Extensive-Form Games 5.4.3 Extensive-Form Games and Imperfect Monitoring 5.4.4 Extensive-Form Games and Weak Individual Rationality 5.4.5 Asynchronous Moves 5.4.6 Simple Strategies 5.1

69 70 72 72 73 75 76 76 80 80 82 87 91 96 101 105 105 106 107 112 118 120 122 134 145 145 146 147 152 153 154 155 158 161 162 163 165 167 168 169 172

xi

Contents

Dynamic Games: Introduction 5.5.1 The Game 5.5.2 Markov Equilibrium 5.5.3 Examples 5.6 Dynamic Games: Foundations 5.6.1 Consistent Partitions 5.6.2 Coherent Consistency 5.6.3 Markov Equilibrium 5.7 Dynamic Games: Equilibrium 5.7.1 The Structure of Equilibria 5.7.2 A Folk Theorem 5.5

6 Applications Price Wars 6.1.1 Independent Price Shocks 6.1.2 Correlated Price Shocks 6.2 Time Consistency 6.2.1 The Stage Game 6.2.2 Equilibrium, Commitment, and Time Consistency 6.2.3 The Inﬁnitely Repeated Game 6.3 Risk Sharing 6.3.1 The Economy 6.3.2 Full Insurance Allocations 6.3.3 Partial Insurance 6.3.4 Consumption Dynamics 6.3.5 Intertemporal Consumption Sensitivity 6.1

Part II

174 175 177 178 186 187 188 190 192 192 195 201 201 201 203 204 204 206 207 208 209 210 212 213 219

Games with (Imperfect) Public Monitoring 7 The Basic Structure of Repeated Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring 7.1

7.2

7.3 7.4 7.5

The Canonical Repeated Game 7.1.1 The Stage Game 7.1.2 The Repeated Game 7.1.3 Recovering a Recursive Structure: Public Strategies and Perfect Public Equilibria A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example 7.2.1 Punishments Happen 7.2.2 Forgiving Strategies 7.2.3 Strongly Symmetric Behavior Implies Inefﬁciency Decomposability and Self-Generation The Impact of Increased Precision The Bang-Bang Result

225 225 225 226 228 232 233 235 239 241 249 251

xii

Contents 7.6 An Example with Short-Lived Players 7.6.1 Perfect Monitoring 7.6.2 Imperfect Public Monitoring of the Long-Lived Player 7.7 The Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Redux 7.7.1 Symmetric Inefﬁciency Revisited 7.7.2 Enforcing a Mixed-Action Proﬁle 7.8 Anonymous Players

8 Bounding Perfect Public Equilibrium Payoffs Decomposing on Half-Spaces The Inefﬁciency of Strongly Symmetric Equilibria Short-Lived Players 8.3.1 The Upper Bound on Payoffs 8.3.2 Binding Moral Hazard 8.4 The Prisoners’ Dilemma 8.4.1 Bounds on Efﬁciency: Pure Actions 8.4.2 Bounds on Efﬁciency: Mixed Actions 8.4.3 A Characterization with Two Signals 8.4.4 Efﬁciency with Three Signals 8.4.5 Efﬁcient Asymmetry 8.1 8.2 8.3

9 The Folk Theorem with Imperfect Public Monitoring 9.1 9.2 9.3

9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7

9.8

Characterizing the Limit Set of PPE Payoffs The Rank Conditions and a Public Monitoring Folk Theorem Perfect Monitoring Characterizations 9.3.1 The Folk Theorem with Long-Lived Players 9.3.2 Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players Enforceability and Identiﬁability Games with a Product Structure Repeated Extensive-Form Games Games of Symmetric Incomplete Information 9.7.1 Equilibrium 9.7.2 A Folk Theorem Short Period Length

255 256 260 264 264 267 269 273 273 278 280 280 281 282 282 284 287 289 291 293 293 298 303 303 303 305 309 311 316 318 320 326

10 Private Strategies in Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring

329

10.1 Sequential Equilibrium 10.2 A Reduced-Form Example 10.2.1 Pure Strategies 10.2.2 Public Correlation 10.2.3 Mixed Public Strategies 10.2.4 Private Strategies 10.3 Two-Period Examples 10.3.1 Equilibrium Punishments Need Not Be Equilibria 10.3.2 Payoffs by Correlation 10.3.3 Inconsistent Beliefs

329 331 331 332 332 333 334 334 337 338

xiii

Contents 10.4 An Inﬁnitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma 10.4.1 Public Transitions 10.4.2 An Inﬁnitely Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma: Indifference

11 Applications 11.1 Oligopoly with Imperfect Monitoring 11.1.1 The Game 11.1.2 Optimal Collusion 11.1.3 Which News Is Bad News? 11.1.4 Imperfect Collusion 11.2 Repeated Adverse Selection 11.2.1 General Structure 11.2.2 An Oligopoly with Private Costs: The Game 11.2.3 A Uniform-Price Equilibrium 11.2.4 A Stationary-Outcome Separating Equilibrium 11.2.5 Efﬁciency 11.2.6 Nonstationary-Outcome Equilibria 11.3 Risk Sharing 11.4 Principal-Agent Problems 11.4.1 Hidden Actions 11.4.2 Incomplete Contracts: The Stage Game 11.4.3 Incomplete Contracts: The Repeated Game 11.4.4 Risk Aversion: The Stage Game 11.4.5 Risk Aversion: Review Strategies in the Repeated Game

Part III

340 340 343 347 347 347 348 350 352 354 354 355 356 357 359 360 365 370 370 371 372 374 375

Games with Private Monitoring 12 Private Monitoring 12.1 A Two-Period Example 12.1.1 Almost Public Monitoring 12.1.2 Conditionally Independent Monitoring 12.1.3 Intertemporal Incentives from Second-Period 12.2 12.3

12.4 12.5

Randomization Private Monitoring Games: Basic Structure Almost Public Monitoring: Robustness in the Inﬁnitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma 12.3.1 The Forgiving Proﬁle 12.3.2 Grim Trigger Independent Monitoring: A Belief-Based Equilibrium for the Inﬁnitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma A Belief-Free Example

13 Almost Public Monitoring Games 13.1 When Is Monitoring Almost Public? 13.2 Nearby Games with Almost Public Monitoring

385 385 387 389 392 394 397 398 400 404 410 415 415 418

xiv

Contents 13.2.1 Payoffs 13.2.2 Continuation Values 13.2.3 Best Responses 13.2.4 Equilibrium 13.3 Public Proﬁles with Bounded Recall 13.4 Failure of Coordination under Unbounded Recall 13.4.1 Examples 13.4.2 Incentives to Deviate 13.4.3 Separating Proﬁles 13.4.4 Rich Monitoring 13.4.5 Coordination Failure 13.5 Patient Players 13.5.1 Patient Strictness 13.5.2 Equilibria in Nearby Games 13.6 A Folk Theorem

14 Belief-Free Equilibria in Private Monitoring Games 14.1 Deﬁnition and Examples 14.1.1 Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma with Perfect Monitoring 14.1.2 Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma with Private Monitoring 14.2 Strong Self-Generation

Part IV

418 419 421 421 423 425 425 427 428 432 434 434 435 437 441 445 445 447 451 453

Reputations 15 Reputations with Short-Lived Players 15.1 The Adverse Selection Approach to Reputations 15.2 Commitment Types 15.3 Perfect Monitoring Games 15.3.1 Building a Reputation 15.3.2 The Reputation Bound 15.3.3 An Example: Time Consistency 15.4 Imperfect Monitoring Games 15.4.1 Stackelberg Payoffs 15.4.2 The Reputation Bound 15.4.3 Small Players with Idiosyncratic Signals 15.5 Temporary Reputations 15.5.1 Asymptotic Beliefs 15.5.2 Uniformly Disappearing Reputations 15.5.3 Asymptotic Equilibrium Play 15.6 Temporary Reputations: The Proof of Proposition 15.5.1 15.6.1 Player 2’s Posterior Beliefs 15.6.2 Player 2’s Beliefs about Her Future Behavior

459 459 463 466 470 474 477 478 480 484 492 493 494 496 497 500 500 502

xv

Contents 15.6.3 Player 1’s Beliefs about Player 2’s Future Behavior 15.6.4 Proof of Proposition 15.5.1

16 Reputations with Long-Lived Players 16.1 The Basic Issue 16.2 Perfect Monitoring and Minmax-Action Reputations 16.2.1 Minmax-Action Types and Conﬂicting Interests 16.2.2 Examples 16.2.3 Two-Sided Incomplete Information 16.3 Weaker Reputations for Any Action 16.4 Imperfect Public Monitoring 16.5 Commitment Types Who Punish 16.6 Equal Discount Factors 16.6.1 Example 1: Common Interests 16.6.2 Example 2: Conﬂicting Interests 16.6.3 Example 3: Strictly Dominant Action Games 16.6.4 Example 4: Strictly Conﬂicting Interests 16.6.5 Bounded Recall 16.6.6 Reputations and Bargaining 16.7 Temporary Reputations

17 Finitely Repeated Games 17.1 The Chain Store Game 17.2 The Prisoners’ Dilemma 17.3 The Product-Choice Game 17.3.1 The Last Period 17.3.2 The First Period, Player 1 17.3.3 The First Period, Player 2

18 Modeling Reputations 18.1 An Alternative Model of Reputations 18.1.1 Modeling Reputations 18.1.2 The Market 18.1.3 Reputation with Replacements 18.1.4 How Different Is It? 18.2 The Role of Replacements 18.3 Good Types and Bad Types 18.3.1 Bad Types 18.3.2 Good Types 18.4 Reputations with Common Consumers 18.4.1 Belief-Free Equilibria with Idiosyncratic Consumers 18.4.2 Common Consumers 18.4.3 Reputations 18.4.4 Replacements 18.4.5 Continuity at the Boundary and Markov Equilibria 18.4.6 Competitive Markets

503 509 511 511 515 515 518 520 521 524 531 533 534 537 540 541 544 546 547 549 550 554 560 562 562 565 567 568 568 570 573 576 576 580 580 581 584 585 586 587 588 590 594

xvi

Contents 18.5 Discrete Choices 18.6 Lost Consumers 18.6.1 The Purchase Game 18.6.2 Bad Reputations: The Stage Game 18.6.3 The Repeated Game 18.6.4 Incomplete Information 18.6.5 Good Firms 18.6.6 Captive Consumers 18.7 Markets for Reputations 18.7.1 Reputations Have Value 18.7.2 Buying Reputations

596 599 599 600 601 603 607 608 610 610 613

Bibliography

619

Symbols

629

Index

631

Repeated Games and Reputations

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1 Introduction

1.1

Intertemporal Incentives

In Puccini’s opera Gianni Schicchi, the deceased Buoso Donati has left his estate to a monastery, much to the consternation of his family.1 Before anyone outside the family learns of the death, Donati’s relatives engage the services of the actor Gianni Schicchi, who is to impersonate Buoso Donati as living but near death, to write a new will leaving the fortune to the family, and then die. Anxious that Schicchi do nothing to risk exposing the plot, the family explains that there are severe penalties for tampering with a will and that any misstep puts Schicchi at risk. All goes well until Schicchi (acting as Buoso Donati) writes the new will, at which point he instructs that the entire estate be left to the great actor Gianni Schicchi. The dumbstruck relatives watch in horror, afraid to object lest their plot be exposed and they pay the penalties with which they had threatened Schicchi. Ron Luciano, who worked in professional baseball as an umpire, occasionally did not feel well enough to umpire. In his memoir, Luciano writes,2 Over a period of time I learned to trust certain catchers so much that I actually let them umpire for me on bad days. The bad days usually followed the good nights. . . . On those days there wasn’t much I could do but take two aspirins and call as little as possible. If someone I trusted was catching . . . I’d tell them, “Look, it’s a bad day. You’d better take it for me. If it’s a strike, hold your glove in place for an extra second. If it’s a ball, throw it right back. And please, don’t yell.” . . . No one I worked with ever took advantage of the situation. In each case, the prospect for opportunistic behavior arises. Gianni Schicchi sees a chance to grab a fortune and does so. Any of Luciano’s catchers could have tipped the game in their favor by making the appropriate calls, secure in the knowledge that Luciano would not expose them for doing his job, but none did so. What is the 1. Our description of Gianni Schicchi is taken from Hamermesh (2004, p. 164) who uses it to illustrate the incentives that arise in isolated interactions. 2. The use of this passage (originally from Luciano and Fisher 1982, p. 166) as an illustration of the importance of repeated interactions is due to Axelrod (1984, p. 178), who quotes and discusses it.

1

2

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

2

1

A

B

C

A

5, 5

0, 0

12, 0

B

0, 0

2, 2

0, 0

C

0, 12

0, 0

10, 10

Figure 1.1.1 A modiﬁed coordination game. Pure-strategy Nash equilibria include AA and BB but not CC.

difference between the two situations? Schicchi anticipates no further dealings with the family of Buoso Donati. In the language of game theory, theirs is a one-shot game. Luciano’s catchers know there is a good chance they will again play games umpired by Luciano and that opportunistic behavior may have adverse future consequences, even if currently unexposed. Theirs is a repeated game. These two stories illustrate the basic principle that motivates interest in repeated games: Repeated interactions give rise to incentives that differ fundamentally from those of isolated interactions. As a simple illustration, consider the game in ﬁgure 1.1.1. This game has two strict Nash equilibria, AA and BB. When this game is played once, players can do no better than to play AA for a payoff of 5. If the game is played twice, with payoffs summed over the two periods, there is an equilibrium with a higher average payoff. The key is to use ﬁrst-period play to coordinate equilibrium play in the second period. The players choose CC in the ﬁrst period and AA in the second. Any other ﬁrst-period outcome leads to BB in the second period. Should one player attempt to exploit the other by playing A in the ﬁrst period, he gains 2 in the ﬁrst period but loses 3 in the second. The deviation is unproﬁtable, and so we have an equilibrium with a total payoff of 15 to each player. We see these differences between repeated and isolated interactions throughout our daily lives. Suppose, on taking your car for a routine oil change, you are told that an engine problem has been discovered and requires an immediate and costly repair. Would your conﬁdence that this diagnosis is accurate depend on whether you regularly do business with the service provider or whether you are passing through on vacation? Would you be more willing to buy a watch in a jewelry store than on the street corner? Would you be more or less inclined to monitor the quality of work done by a provider who is going out of business after doing your job? Repeated games are the primary tool for understanding such situations. This preliminary chapter presents four examples illustrating the issues that arise in repeated games.

1.2

■

3

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

2 E

1

S

E

2, 2

S

3, −1

−1, 3 0, 0

Figure 1.2.1 The prisoners’ dilemma.

1.2

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

The prisoners’ dilemma is perhaps the best known and most studied (and most abused) of games.3 We will frequently use the example given in ﬁgure 1.2.1. We interpret the prisoners’ dilemma as a partnership game in which each player can either exert effort (E) or shirk (S).4 Shirking is strictly dominant, while higher payoffs for both players are achieved if both exert effort. In an isolated interaction, there is no escape from this “dilemma.” We must either change the game so that it is not a prisoners’ dilemma or must accept the inefﬁcient outcome. Any argument in defense of effort must ultimately be an argument that either the numbers in the matrix do not represent the players preferences, or that some other aspect of the game is not really descriptive of the actual interaction. Things change considerably if the game is repeated. Suppose the game is played in periods 0, 1, 2, . . . . The players make their choices simultaneously in each period, and then observe that period’s outcome before proceeding to the next. Let ait and ajt be the actions (exert effort or shirk) chosen by players i and j in period t and let ui be player i’s utility function, as given in ﬁgure 1.2.1. Player i maximizes the normalized discounted sum of payoffs

(1 − δ)

∞

δ t ui (ait , ajt ),

t=0

where δ ∈ [0, 1) is the common discount factor. Suppose that the strategy of each player is to exert effort in the ﬁrst period and to continue to do so in every subsequent period as long as both players have previously exerted effort, while shirking in all other circumstances. Suppose ﬁnally that period τ has been reached, and no one has 3. Binmore (1994, chapter 3) discusses the many (unsuccessful) attempts to extract cooperation from the prisoners’ dilemma. 4. Traditionally, the dominant action is called defect and the dominated action cooperate. In our view, the words cooperate and defect are too useful to restrict their usage to actions in a single (even if important) game.

4

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

yet shirked. What should player i do? One possibility is to continue to exert effort, and in fact to do so forever. Given the strategy of the other player, this yields a (normalized, discounted) payoff of 2. The only other candidate for an optimal strategy is to shirk in period τ (if one is ever going to shirk, one might as well do it now), after which one can do no better than shirk in all subsequent periods (since player j will do so), to t−τ 0 = 3(1 − δ). Continued effort is optimal if δ for a payoff of (1 − δ) 3 + ∞ t=τ +1 2 ≥ 3(1 − δ), or δ ≥ 13 . By making future play depend on current actions, we can thus alter the incentives that shape these current actions, in this case allowing equilibria in which the players exert effort. For these new incentives to have an effect on behavior, the players must be sufﬁciently patient, and hence future payoffs sufﬁciently important. This is not the only equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma. It is also an equilibrium for each player to relentlessly shirk, regardless of past play. Indeed, for any payoffs that are feasible in the stage game and strictly individually rational (i.e., give each player a positive payoff), there is an equilibrium of the repeated game producing those payoffs, if the players are sufﬁciently patient. This is an example of the folk theorem for repeated games.

1.3

Oligopoly

We can recast this result in an economic context. Consider the Cournot oligopoly model. There are n ﬁrms, denoted by i = 1, . . . , n, who costlessly produce an identical product. The ﬁrms simultaneously choose quantities of output, with ﬁrm i’s output denoted by ai ∈ R+ and with the market price then given by 1 − ni=1 ai . Given these choices, the proﬁts of ﬁrm j are given by uj (a1 , . . . , an ) = n aj 1 − i=1 ai . For any number of ﬁrms n, this game has a unique Nash equilibrium, which is symmetric and calls for each ﬁrm i to produce output a N and earn proﬁts ui (a N , . . . , a N ), where5 1 , n+1 2 1 ui (a N , . . . , a N ) = . n+1 aN =

and

When n = 1, this is a monopoly market. As the number of ﬁrms n grows arbitrarily large, the equilibrium outcome approaches that of a competitive market, with zero price and total quantity equal to one, while the consumer surplus increases and the welfare loss prompted by imperfect competition decreases. 5. Firm j ’s ﬁrst-order condition for proﬁt maximization is 1 − 2aj − i=j ai = 0 or aj = 1 − A, where A is the total quantity produced in the market. It is then immediate that the equilibrium must be symmetric, giving a ﬁrst-order condition of 1 − (n + 1)a N = 0.

1.4

■

Imperfect Monitoring

5

The analysis of imperfectly competitive markets has advanced far beyond this simple model. However, the intuition remains that less concentrated markets are more competitive and yield higher consumer welfare, providing the organizing theme for many discussions of merger and antitrust policy. It may instead be reasonable to view the interaction between a handful of ﬁrms as a repeated game.6 The welfare effects of market concentration and the forces behind these effects are now much less clear. Much like the case of the prisoners’ dilemma, consider strategies in which each ﬁrm produces 1/2n as long as every ﬁrm has done so in every previous period, and otherwise produces output 1/(n + 1). The former output allows the ﬁrms to jointly reproduce the monopoly outcome in this market, splitting the proﬁts equally, whereas the latter is the Nash equilibrium of the stage game. As long as the discount factor is sufﬁciently high, these strategies are a subgame-perfect equilibrium.7 Total monopoly proﬁts are 1/4 and the proﬁts of each ﬁrm are given by 1/4n in each period of this equilibrium. The increased payoffs available to a ﬁrm who cheats on the implicit agreement to produce the monopoly output are overwhelmed by the future losses involved in switching to the stagegame equilibrium. If these “collusive” strategies are the equilibrium realized in the repeated game, then reductions in the number of ﬁrms may have no effect on consumer welfare at all. No longer can we regard less concentrated markets as more competitive.

1.4

The Prisoners’ Dilemma under Imperfect Monitoring

Our ﬁrst two examples have been games of perfect monitoring, in the sense that the players can observe each others’ actions. Consider again the prisoners’ dilemma of section 1.2, but now suppose a player can observe the outcome of the joint venture but cannot observe whether his partner has exerted effort. In addition, the outcome is either a success or a failure and is a random function of the partners’ actions. A success appears with probability p if both partners exert effort, with probability q if one exerts effort and one shirks, and probability r if both shirk, where p > q > r > 0. This is now a game of imperfect public monitoring. It is clear that the strategies presented in section 1.2 for sustaining effort as an equilibrium outcome in the repeated game—exert effort in the absence of any shirking, and shirk otherwise—will no longer 6. To evaluate whether the stage game or the repeated game is a more likely candidate for usefully examining a market, one might reasonably begin with questions about the qualitative nature of behavior in that market. When ﬁrm i sets its current quantity or price, does it consider the effect that this quantity and price might have on the future behavior of its rivals? For example, does an airline wonder whether a fare cut will prompt similar cuts on the part of its competitors? Does an auto manufacturer ask whether rebates and ﬁnancial incentives will prompt similar initiatives on the part of other auto manufacturers? If so, then a repeated game is the obvious tool for modelling the interaction. 7. After some algebra, the condition is that 1 1 1 n+1 2 1 −δ ≤ . 16 n 1 − δ 4n (n + 1)2

6

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

work, because players cannot tell when someone has shirked. However, all is not lost. Suppose the players begin by exerting effort and do so as long as the venture is successful, switching to permanent shirking as soon as a failure is observed. For sufﬁciently patient players, this is an equilibrium (section 7.2.1 derives the necessary condition δ ≥ 1/[3p − 2q]). The equilibrium embodies a rather bleak future, in the sense that a failure will eventually occur and the players will shirk thereafter, but supports at least some effort. The difﬁculty here is that the “punishment” supporting the incentives to exert effort, consisting of permanent shirking after the ﬁrst failure, is often more severe than necessary. This was no problem in the perfect-monitoring case, where the punishment was safely off the equilibrium path and hence need never be carried out. Here, the imperfect monitoring ensures that punishments will occur. The players would thus prefer the punishments be as lenient as possible, consistent with creating the appropriate incentives for exerting effort. Chapter 7 explains how equilibria can be constructed with less severe punishments. Imperfect monitoring fundamentally changes the nature of the equilibrium. If nontrivial intertemporal incentives are to be created, then over the course of equilibrium play the players will ﬁnd themselves in a punishment phase inﬁnitely often. This happens despite the fact that the players know, when the punishment is triggered by a failure, that both have in fact followed the equilibrium prescription of exerting effort. Then why do they carry through the punishment? Given that the other players are entering the punishment phase, it is a best response to do likewise. But why would equilibria arise that routinely punish players for offenses not committed? Because the expected payoffs in such equilibria can be higher than those produced by simply playing a Nash equilibrium of the stage game. Given the inevitability of punishments, one might suspect that the set of feasible outcomes in games of imperfect monitoring is rather limited. In particular, it appears as if the inevitability of some periods in which players shirk makes efﬁcient outcomes impossible. However, chapter 9 establishes conditions under which we again have a folk theorem result. The key is to work with asymmetric punishments, sliding along the frontier of efﬁcient payoffs so as to reward some players as others are penalized.8 There may thus be a premium on asymmetric strategies, despite the lack of any asymmetry in the game. The players in this example at least have the advantage that the information they receive is public. Either both observe a success or both a failure. This ensures that they can coordinate their future behavior, as a function of current outcomes, so as to create the appropriate current incentives. Chapters 12–14 consider the case of private monitoring, in which the players potentially receive different private information about what has transpired. It now appears as if the ability to coordinate future behavior in response to current events has evaporated completely, and with it the ability to support any outcome other than persistent shirking. Perhaps surprisingly, there is still considerable latitude for equilibria featuring effort. 8. This requires that the imperfect monitoring give players (noisy) indications not only that a deviation from equilibrium play has occurred but also who might have been the deviator. The two-signal example in this section fails this condition.

1.5

■

7

The Product-Choice Game

2 h

H

2, 3

0, 2

L

3, 0

1, 1

1

Figure 1.5.1 The product-choice game.

1.5

The Product-Choice Game

Consider the game shown in ﬁgure 1.5.1. Think of player 1 as a ﬁrm who can exert either high effort (H ) or low effort (L) in the production of its output. Player 2 is a consumer who can buy either a high-priced product, h, or a low-priced product, . For example, we might think of player 1 as a restaurant whose menu features both elegant dinners and hamburgers, or as a surgeon who treats respiratory problems with either heart surgery or folk remedies. Player 2 prefers the high-priced product if the ﬁrm has exerted high effort, but prefers the low-priced product if the ﬁrm has not. One might prefer a ﬁne dinner or heart surgery from a chef or doctor who exerts high effort, while preferring fast food or an ineffective but unobtrusive treatment from a shirker. The ﬁrm prefers that consumers purchase the high-priced product and is willing to commit to high effort to induce that choice by the consumer. In a simultaneous move game, however, the ﬁrm cannot observably choose effort before the consumer chooses the product. Because high effort is costly, the ﬁrm prefers low effort, no matter the choice of the consumer. The stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium, in which the ﬁrm exerts low effort and the consumer purchases the low-priced product. Suppose the game is played inﬁnitely often, with perfect monitoring. In doing so, we will often interpret player 2 not as a single player but as a succession of short-lived players, each of whom plays the game only once. We assume that each new short-lived player can observe signals about the ﬁrm’s previous choices.9 As long as the ﬁrm is sufﬁciently patient, there is an equilibrium in the repeated game in which the ﬁrm exerts high effort and consumers purchase the high-priced product. The ﬁrm is deterred from taking the immediate payoff boost accompanying low effort by the prospect of future consumers then purchasing the low-priced product.10 Again, however, there are other equilibria, including one in which low effort is exerted and the low priced product purchased in every period.

9. If this is not the case, we have a large collection of effectively unrelated single-shot games that happen to have a common player on one side, rather than a repeated game. 10. Purchasing the high-priced product is a best response for the consumer to high effort, so that no incentive issues arise concerning player 2’s behavior. When consumers are short-lived, there is no prospect for using future play to alter current incentives.

8

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

Now suppose that consumers are not entirely certain of the characteristics of the ﬁrm. They may attach high probability to the ﬁrm’s being “normal,” meaning that it has the payoffs just given, but they also entertain some (possibly very small) probability that they face a ﬁrm who fortuitously has a technology or some other characteristic that ensures high effort. Refer to the latter as the “commitment” type of ﬁrm. This is now a game of incomplete information, with the consumers uncertain of the ﬁrm’s type. As long as the ﬁrm is sufﬁciently patient, then in any Nash equilibrium of the repeated game, the ﬁrm’s payoff must be arbitrarily close to 2. This result holds no matter how unlikely consumers think the commitment type, though increasing patience is required from the normal ﬁrm as the commitment type becomes less likely. To see the intuition behind this result, suppose that we have a candidate equilibrium in which the normal ﬁrm receives a payoff less than 2 − ε. Then the normal and commitment types must be making different choices over the course of the repeated game, because an equilibrium in which they behave identically would induce consumers to choose h and would yield a payoff of 2. Now, one option open to the normal ﬁrm is to mimic the behavior of the commitment type. If the normal ﬁrm does so over a sufﬁciently long period of time, then the short-run players (who expect the normal type of ﬁrm to behave differently) will become convinced that the ﬁrm is actually the commitment type and will play their best response of h. Once this happens, the normal ﬁrm thereafter earns a payoff of 2. Of course, it may take a while for this to happen, and the ﬁrm may have to endure much lower payoffs in the meantime, but these initial payoffs are not very important if the ﬁrm is patient. If the ﬁrm is patient enough, it thus has a strategy available that ensures a payoff arbitrarily close to 2. Our initial hypothesis, that the ﬁrm’s equilibrium payoff fell short of 2 − ε, must then have been incorrect. Any equilibrium must give the (sufﬁciently patient) normal type of ﬁrm a payoff above 2 − ε. The common interpretation of this argument is that the normal ﬁrm can acquire and maintain a reputation for behaving like the commitment type. This reputationbuilding possibility, which excludes many of the equilibrium outcomes of the completeinformation game, may appear to be quite special. Why should consumers’ uncertainty about the ﬁrm take precisely the form we have assumed? What happens if there is a single buyer who reappears in each period, so that the buyer also faces intertemporal incentive considerations and may also consider building a reputation? However, the result generalizes far beyond the special structure of this example (chapter 15).

1.6

Discussion

The unifying theme of work in repeated games is that links between current and future behavior can create incentives that would not be apparent if one examined a current interaction in isolation. We routinely rely on the importance of such links in our daily lives. Markets create boundaries within which a vast variety of behavior is possible. These markets can function effectively only if there is a shared understanding of what constitutes appropriate behavior. Trade in many markets involves goods and services

1.6

■

Discussion

9

whose characteristics are sufﬁciently difﬁcult to verify as to make legal enforcement a hopelessly clumsy tool. This is an especially important consideration in markets involving expert providers, with the markets for medical care and a host of maintenance and repair services being the most prominent examples, in which the party providing the service is also best positioned to assess the service. More generally, legal sanctions cannot explain why people routinely refrain from opportunistic behavior, such as attempting to renegotiate prices, taking advantage of sunk costs, or cheating on a transaction. But if such behavior reigned unchecked, our markets would collapse. The common force organizing market transactions is the prospect of future interactions. We decline opportunities to renege on deals or turn them to our advantage because we expect to have future dealings with the other party. The development of trading practices that transferred enough information to create effective intertemporal incentives was a turning point in the development of our modern market economy (e.g., Greif 1997, 2005; Greif, Milgrom, and Weingast 1994). Despite economists’ emphasis on markets, many of the most critical activities in our lives take place outside of markets. We readily cede power and authority to some people, either formally through a political process or through informal acquiesence. We have social norms governing when one is allowed to take advantage of another and when one should refrain from doing so. We have conventions for how families are formed, including who is likely to mate with whom, and how they are organized, including who has an obligation to support whom and who can expect resources from whom. Our society relies on institutions to perform some functions, whereas other quite similar functions are performed outside of institutions—the helpless elderly are routinely institutionalized, but not infants. A unifying view of these observations is that they reﬂect equilibria of the repeated game that we implicitly play with one another.11 It is then no surprise, given the tendency for repeated games to have multiple equilibria, that we see great variation across the world in how societies and cultures are organized. This same multiplicity opens the door to the possibility that we might think about designing our society to function more effectively. The theory of repeated games provides the tools for this task. The best known results in the theory of repeated games, the folk theorems, focus attention on the multiplicity of equilibria in such games, a source of great consternation for some. We consider multiple equilibria a virtue—how else can one hope to explain the richness of behavior that we observe around us? It is also important to note that the folk theorem characterizes the payoffs available to arbitrarily patient players. Much of our interest and much of the work in this book concerns cases in which players are patient enough for intertemporal incentives to have some effect, but not arbitrarily patient. In addition, we are concerned with the properties of equilibrium behavior as well as payoffs. 11. Ellickson (1991) provides a discussion of how neighbors habitually rely on informal intertemporal arrangements to mediate their interactions rather than relying exclusively on current incentives, even when the latter are readily available. Binmore (1994, 1998) views an understanding of the incentives created by repeated interactions as being sufﬁciently common as to appropriately replace previous notions, such as the categorical imperative, as the foundation for theories of social justice.

10

Chapter 1

1.7

■

Introduction

A Reader’s Guide

Chapter 2 is the obvious point of departure, introducing the basic tools for working with repeated games, including the “dynamic programming” approach to repeated games. The reader then faces a choice. One can proceed through the chapters in part I of the book, treating games of perfect monitoring. Chapter 3 uses constructive arguments to prove the folk theorem. Chapter 4 examines a number of issues, such as what we should make of an inﬁnite horizon, that arise in interpreting repeated games, while chapter 5 pushes the analysis beyond the conﬁnes of the canonical repeated game. Chapter 6 illustrates the techniques with a collection of economic applications. Alternatively, one can jump directly to part II. Here, chapters 7 and 8 present more powerful (though initially seemingly more abstract) techniques that allow a uniﬁed treatment of games of perfect and imperfect monitoring. These allow us to work with the limiting case of perfectly patient players as well as cases in which players may be less patient and in which the sufﬁcient conditions for a folk theorem fail. Chapter 9 presents the public monitoring folk theorem, and chapter 10 explores features that arise out of imperfections in the monitoring process. Chapter 11 again provides economic illustrations. The reader now faces another choice. Part III (chapters 12–14) considers the case of private monitoring. Here, we expect a familiarity with the material in chapter 7. Alternatively, the reader can proceed to part IV, on reputations, whether arriving from part I or part II. Chapters 15 and 16 form the core here, presenting the classical reputation results for games with a single long-lived player and for games with multiple long-lived players, with the remaining chapters exploring extensions and alternative formulations. For an epilogue, see Samuelson (2006, section 6).

1.8

The Scope of the Book

The analysis of long-run relationships is relevant for virtually every area of economics. The literature on intertemporal incentives is vast. If a treatment of the subject is to be kept manageable, some things must be excluded. We have not attempted a comprehensive survey or history of the literature. Our canonical setting is one in which a ﬁxed stage game is played in each of an inﬁnite number of time periods by players who maximize the average discounted payoffs. We concentrate on cases in which players have the same discount factor (see remark 2.1.4) or on cases in which long-lived players with common discount factors are joined by myopic short-lived players. We are sometimes interested in cases in which the players are quite patient, typically captured by examining the limit as their discount factors approach 1, because intertemporal incentives are most effective with patient players. An alternative is to work directly with arbitrarily patient players, using criteria such as the limit-ofthe-means payoffs or the overtaking criteria to evaluate payoffs. We touch on this subject brieﬂy (section 3.2.2), but otherwise restrict attention to discounted games.

1.8

■

The Scope of the Book

11

In particular, we are also often interested in cases with nontrivial intertemporal incentives, but sufﬁcient impatience to impose constraints on equilibrium behavior. In addition, the no-discounting case is more useful for studying payoffs than behavior. We are interested not only in players’ payoffs but also in the strategies that deliver these payoffs. We discuss ﬁnitely repeated games (section 4.4 and chapter 17) only enough to argue that there is in general no fundamental discontinuity when passing from ﬁnite to inﬁnitely repeated games. The analyses of ﬁnite and inﬁnite horizon games are governed by the same conceptual issues. We then concentrate on inﬁnitely repeated games, where a more convenient body of recursive techniques generally allows a more powerful analysis. We concentrate on cases in which the stage game is identical across periods. In a dynamic game, the stage game evolves over the course of the repeated interaction in response to actions taken by the players.12 Dynamic games are also referred to as stochastic games, emphasizing the potential randomness in the evolution of the state. We offer an introduction to such issues in sections 5.5–5.7, suggesting Mertens (2002), Sorin (2002), and Vieille (2002) as introductions to the literature. A literature in its own right has grown around the study of differential games, or perfect-monitoring dynamic games played in continuous time, much of it in engineering and mathematics. As a result of the continuous time setting, the techniques for working with such games resemble those of control theory, whereas those of repeated games more readily prompt analogies to dynamic programming. We say nothing about such games, suggesting Friedman (1994) and Clemhout and Wan (1994) for introductions to the topic. The ﬁrst three parts of this book consider games of complete information, where players share identical information about the structure of the game. In contrast, many economic applications are concerned with cases of incomplete information. A seller may not know the buyer’s utility function. A buyer may not know whether a ﬁrm plans to continue in business or is on the verge of absconding. A potential entrant may not know whether the existing ﬁrm can wage a price war with impunity or stands to lose tremendously from doing so. In the ﬁnal part of this book, we consider a special class of games of incomplete information whose study has been particularly fruitful, namely, reputation games. A more general treatment of games of incomplete information is given by Zamir (1992) and Forges (1992). The key to the incentives that arise in repeated games is the ability to establish a link between current and future play. If this is to be done, players must be able to observe or monitor current play. Much of our work is organized around assumptions about players’ abilities to monitor others’ behavior. Imperfections in monitoring can impose constraints on equilibrium payoffs. A number of publications have shown that 12. For example, the oligopolists in section 1.3 might also have the opportunity to invest in costreducing research and development in each period. Each period then brings a new stage game, characterized by the cost levels relevant for the period, along with a new opportunity to affect future stage games as well as secure a payoff in the current game. Inventory levels for a ﬁrm, debt levels for a government, education levels for a worker, or weapons stocks for a country may all be sources of similar intertemporal evolution in a stage game. Somewhat further aﬁeld, a bargaining game is a dynamic game, with the stage game undergoing a rather dramatic transformation to becoming a trivial game in which nothing happens once an agreement is reached.

12

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

these constraints can be relaxed if players have the ability to communicate with one another (e.g., Compte 1998 and Kandori and Matsushima 1998). We do not consider such possibilities. We say nothing here about the reputations of expert advisors. An expert may have preferences about the actions of a decision maker whom he advises, but the advice itself is cheap talk, in the sense that it affects the expert’s payoff only through its effect on the decision maker’s action. If this interaction occurs once, then we have a straightforward cheap talk game whose study was pioneered by Crawford and Sobel (1982). If the interaction is repeated, then the expert’s recommendations have an effect not only on current actions but also possibly on how much inﬂuence the expert will have in the future. The expert may then prefer to hedge the current recommendation in an attempt to be more inﬂuential in the future (e.g., Morris 2001). Finally, the concept of a reputation has appeared in a number of contexts, some of them quite different from those that appear in this book, in both the academic literature and popular use. Firms offering warranties are often said to be cultivating reputations for high quality, advertising campaigns are designed to create a reputation for trendiness, forecasters are said to have reputations for accuracy, or advisors for giving useful counsel. These concepts of reputation touch on ideas similar to those with which we work in a number of places. We have no doubt that the issues surrounding reputations are much richer than those we capture here. We regard this area as a particularly important one for further work.

Part I Games with Perfect Monitoring

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2 The Basic Structure of Repeated Games with Perfect Monitoring

2.1

The Canonical Repeated Game

2.1.1 The Stage Game The construction of the repeated game begins with a stage game. There are n players, numbered 1, . . . , n. We refer to choices in the stage game as actions, reserving strategy for behavior in the repeated game. The set of pure actions available to player i in the stage game is denoted Ai , with typical element ai . The set of pure action proﬁles is given by A ≡ i Ai . We assume each Ai is a compact subset of the Euclidean space Rk for some k. Some of the results further assume each Ai is ﬁnite. Stage game payoffs are given by a continuous function,

u: Ai → R n . i

The set of mixed actions for player i is denoted by (Ai ), with typical element αi , and the set of mixed proﬁles by i (Ai ). The payoff function is extended to mixed actions by taking expectations. The set of stage-game payoffs generated by the pure action proﬁles in A is F ≡ {v ∈ Rn : ∃a ∈ A s.t. v = u(a)}. The set of feasible payoffs, F † ≡ coF , is the convex hull of the set of payoffs F .1 As we will see, for sufﬁciently patient players, intertemporal averaging allows us to obtain payoffs in F † \F . A payoff v ∈ F † is inefﬁcient if there exists another payoff v ∈ F † with vi > vi for all i; the payoff v strictly dominates v. A payoff is efﬁcient (or Pareto efﬁcient) if it is not inefﬁcient. If, for v, v ∈ F † , vi ≥ vi for all i with a strict inequality for some i, then v weakly dominates v. A feasible payoff is strongly efﬁcient if it is efﬁcient and not weakly dominated by any other feasible payoff. By Nash’s (1951) existence theorem, if the stage game is ﬁnite, then it has a (possibly mixed) Nash equilibrium. In general, because payoffs are given by contin uous functions on the compact set i Ai , it follows from Glicksberg’s (1952) ﬁxed point theorem that the inﬁnite stage games we consider also have Nash equilibria. It 1. The convex hull of a set A ⊂ Rn , denoted coA , is the smallest convex set containing A .

15

16

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

is common when working with inﬁnite action stage games to additionally require that the action spaces be convex and ui quasi-concave in ai , so that pure-strategy Nash equilibria exist (Fudenberg and Tirole 1991, section 1.3.3). For ease of reference, we list the maintained assumptions on the stage game. Assumption 1. Ai is either ﬁnite, or a compact and convex subset of the Euclidean space Rk

2.1.1

for some k. We refer to compact and convex action spaces as continuum action spaces. 2. If Ai is a continuum action space, then u : A → Rn is continuous, and ui is quasiconcave in ai .

Remark Pure strategies given continuum action spaces When action spaces are continua,

2.1.1 to avoid some tedious measurability details, we only consider pure strategies. Because the basic analysis of ﬁnite action games (with pure or mixed actions) and continuum action games (with pure actions) is identical, we use αi to both denote pure or mixed strategies in ﬁnite games, and pure strategies only in continuum action games. ◆ Much of the work in repeated games is concerned with characterizing the payoffs consistent with equilibrium behavior in the repeated game. This characterization in turn often begins by identifying the worst payoff consistent with individual optimization. Player i always has the option of playing a best response to the (mixed) actions chosen by the other players. In the case of pure strategies, the worst outcome in the stage game for player i, consistent with i behaving optimally, is then that the other players choose the proﬁle a−i ∈ A−i ≡ j =i Aj that minimizes the payoff i earns when i plays a best response to a−i . This bound, player i’s (pure action) minmax payoff, is given by p

vi ≡ min max ui (ai , a−i ). a−i ∈A−i ai ∈Ai

p

The compactness of A and continuity of ui ensure vi is well deﬁned. A (pure action) i ) with minmax proﬁle (which may not be unique) for player i is a proﬁle aˆ i = (aˆ ii , aˆ −i p i i i ). the properties that aˆ i is a stage-game best response for i to aˆ −i and vi = ui (aˆ ii , aˆ −i Hence, player i’s minmax action proﬁle gives i his minmax payoff and ensures that no alternative action on i’s part can raise his payoff. In general, the other players will not be choosing best responses in proﬁle aˆ i , and hence aˆ i will not be a Nash equilibrium of the stage game.2 A payoff vector v = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is weakly (pure action) individually rational if p p vi ≥ vi for all i, and is strictly (pure action) individually rational if vi > vi for all i. The set of feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs is given by p

F †p ≡ {v ∈ F † : vi > vi , i = 1, . . . , n}. The set of strictly individually rational payoffs generated by pure action proﬁles is given by p F p ≡ {v ∈ F : vi > vi , i = 1, . . . , n}. 2. An exception is the prisoners’ dilemma, where mutual shirking is both the unique Nash equilibrium of the stage game and the minmax action proﬁle for both players. Many of the special properties of the prisoners’ dilemma arise out of this coincidence.

2.1

■

17

The Canonical Repeated Game

H H T

1, −1 −1, 1

T −1, 1 1, −1

Figure 2.1.1 Matching pennies.

Remark Mixed-action individual rationality In ﬁnite games, lower payoffs can sometimes

2.1.2 be enforced when we allow players to randomize. In particular, allowing the players other than player i to randomize yields the mixed-action minmax payoff, vi ≡

min

max ui (ai , α−i ),

(2.1.1)

α−i ∈j =i (Aj ) ai ∈Ai

p

which can be lower than the pure action minmax payoff, vi .3 A (mixed) action i ) with the properties that α ˆ ii minmax proﬁle for player i is a proﬁle αˆ i = (αˆ ii , αˆ −i i and v = u (α i ˆ i ). is a stage-game best response for i to αˆ −i i i ˆi , α −i In matching pennies (ﬁgure 2.1.1), for example, player 1’s pure minmax payoff is 1, because for any of player 2’s pure strategies, player 1 has a best response giving a payoff of 1. Pure minmax action proﬁles for player 1 are given by (H, H ) and (T , T ). In contrast, player 1’s mixed minmax payoff is 0, implied by player 2’s mixed action of 12 ◦ H + 12 ◦ T .4 p We use the same term, individual rationality, to indicate both vi ≥ vi and vi ≥ vi , with the context indicating the appropriate choice. We denote the set of feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs (relative to the mixed minmax utility, vi ) by F ∗ ≡ {v ∈ F † : vi > vi , i = 1, . . . , n}. ◆ 2.1.2 Public Correlation It is sometimes natural to allow players to use a public correlating device. Such a device captures a variety of public events that players might use to coordinate their actions. Perhaps the best known example is an agreement in the electrical equipment industry in the 1950s to condition bids in procurement auctions on the current phase of the moon.5 3. Allowing player i to mix will not change i’s minmax payoff, because every action in the support of a mixed best reply is also a best reply for player i. 4. We denote the mixture that assigns probability αi (ai ) to action ai by ai αi (ai ) ◦ ai . 5. A small body of literature has studied this case. See Carlton and Perloff (1992, pp. 213–216) for a brief introduction.

18

Chapter 2

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Perfect Monitoring

Definition A public correlating device is a probability space ([0, 1], B, λ), where B is the

2.1.1 Borel σ -algebra and λ is Lebesgue measure. In the stage game with public correlation, a realization ω ∈ [0, 1] of a public random variable is ﬁrst drawn, which is observed by all players, and then each player i chooses an action ai ∈ Ai . A stage-game action for player i in the stage game with public correlation is a (measurable) function ai : [0, 1] → (Ai ). If ai : [0, 1] → Ai , then ai is a pure action. When actions depend nontrivially on the outcome of the public correlating device, we calculate player i’s expected payoff in the obvious manner, by taking expectations over the outcome ω ∈ [0, 1]. Any strategy proﬁle a ≡ (a1 , . . . , an ) induces a joint distribution over i (Ai ). When evaluating the proﬁtability of a deviation from a, because the realization of the correlating device is public, the calculation is ex post, that is, conditional on the realization of ω. If a is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game with public correlation, then every α in the support of a is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game without public correlation; in particular, most correlated equilibria (Aumann 1974) are not equilibria of the stage game with public correlation. It is possible to replace the public correlating device with communication, by using jointly controlled lotteries, introduced by Aumann, Maschler, and Stearns (1968). For example, for two players, suppose they simultaneously announce a number from [0, 1]. Let ω equal their sum, if the sum is less than 1, and equal their sum minus 1 otherwise. It is easy to verify that if one player uniformly randomizes over his selection, then ω is uniformly distributed on [0, 1] for any choice by the other player. Consequently, neither player can inﬂuence the probability distribution. We will not discuss communication in this book, so we use public correlating devices rather than jointly controlled lotteries. Trivially, every payoff in F † can be achieved in pure actions using public correlation. On the other hand, not all payoffs in F † can be achieved in mixed actions without public correlation. For example, consider the game in ﬁgure 2.1.2. The set F is given by F = {(2, 2), (5, 1), (1, 5), (0, 0)}. The set F † is the set of all convex combinations of these four payoff vectors. Some of the payoffs that are in F † but not F can be obtained via independent mixtures, ignoring the correlating device, over the sets {T , B} and {L, R}. For example, F † contains (20/9, 20/9), obtained by independent mixtures that place probability 2/3 on T (or L) and 1/3 on B (or R). A pure strategy that uses the public correlation device to place probability 4/9 on (T , L), 2/9 on each of (T , R) and (B, L), and 1/9 on (B, R) achieves the same payoff. In addition, the public correlating device allows the players to achieve some payoffs in F † that cannot be obtained from independent

L

R

T

2, 2

1, 5

B

5, 1

0, 0

Figure 2.1.2 The game of “chicken.”

2.1

■

19

The Canonical Repeated Game

mixtures. For example, the players can attach probability 1/2 to each of the outcomes (T , R) and (B, L), giving payoffs (3, 3). No independent mixtures can achieve such payoffs, because any such mixtures must attach positive probability to payoffs (2, 2) and (0, 0), ensuring that the sum of the two players’ average payoffs falls below 6. 2.1.3 The Repeated Game In the repeated game,6 the stage game is played in each of the periods t ∈ {0, 1, . . .}. In formulating the notation for this game, we use subscripts to refer to players, typically identifying the element of a proﬁle of actions, strategies, or payoffs corresponding to a particular player. Superscripts will either refer to periods or denote particular proﬁles of interest, with the use being clear from the context. This chapter introduces repeated games of perfect monitoring. At the end of each period, all players observe the action proﬁle chosen. In other words, the actions of every player are perfectly monitored by all other players. If a player is randomizing, only the realized choice is observed. The set of period t ≥ 0 histories is given by H t ≡ At , where we deﬁne the initial history to be the null set, A0 ≡ {∅}, and At to be the t-fold product of A. A history ht ∈ H t is thus a list of t action proﬁles, identifying the actions played in periods 0 through t − 1. The addition of a period t action proﬁle then yields a period t + 1 history ht+1 , an element of the set H t+1 = H t × A. The set of all possible histories is ∞ H ≡ H t. t=0

A pure strategy for player i is a mapping from the set of all possible histories into the set of pure actions,7 σ i : H → Ai . A mixed strategy for player i is a mixture over the set of all pure strategies. Without loss of generality, we typically ﬁnd it more convenient to work with behavior strategies rather than mixed strategies.8 A behavior strategy for player i is a mapping σi : H → (Ai ). Because a pure strategy is trivially a special case of a behavior strategy, we use the same notation σi for both pure and behavior strategies. Unless indicating otherwise, 6. The early literature often used the term supergame for the repeated game. 7. Because there is a natural bijection (one-to-one and onto mapping) between H and each player’s collection of information sets, this is the standard notion of an extensive-form strategy. 8. Two strategies for a player i are realization equivalent if, ﬁxing the strategies of the other players, the two strategies of player i induce the same distribution over outcomes. It is a standard result for ﬁnite extensive form games that every mixed strategy has a realization equivalent behavior strategy (Kuhn’s theorem, see Ritzberger 2002, theorem 3.3, p. 127), and the same is true here. See Mertens, Sorin, and Zamir 1994, theorem 1.6, p. 66 for a proof (though the proof is conceptually identical to the ﬁnite case, the inﬁnite horizon introduces some technical issues).

20

Chapter 2

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Perfect Monitoring

we then use the word strategy to denote a behavior strategy, which may happen to be pure. Recall from remark 2.1.1 that we consider only pure strategies for a player whose action space is a continuum (even though for notational simplicity we sometimes use αi to denote the stage game action). For any history ht ∈ H , we deﬁne the continuation game to be the inﬁnitely repeated game that begins in period t, following history ht . For any strategy proﬁle σ , player i’s continuation strategy induced by ht , denoted σi |ht , is given by σi |ht (hτ ) = σi (ht hτ ),

∀hτ ∈ H ,

where ht hτ is the concatenation of the history ht followed by the history hτ . This is the behavior implied by the strategy σi in the continuation game that follows history ht . We write σ |ht for (σ1 |ht , . . . , σn |ht ). Because for each history ht , σi |ht is a strategy in the original repeated game, that is, σi |ht : H → (Ai ), the continuation game associated with each history is a subgame that is strategically identical to the original repeated game. Thus, repeated games have a recursive structure, and this plays an important role in their study. An outcome path (or more simply, outcome) in the inﬁnitely repeated game is an inﬁnite sequence of action proﬁles a ≡ (a 0 , a 1 , a 2 , . . .) ∈ A∞ . Notice that an outcome is distinct from a history. Outcomes are inﬁnite sequences of action proﬁles, whereas histories are ﬁnite-length sequences (whose length identiﬁes the period for which the history is relevant). We denote the ﬁrst t periods of an outcome a by at = (a 0 , a 1 , . . . , a t−1 ). Thus, at is the history in H t corresponding to the outcome a. The pure strategy proﬁle σ ≡ (σ1 , . . . , σn ) induces the outcome a(σ ) ≡ (a 0 (σ ), a 1 (σ ), a 2 (σ ), . . .) recursively as follows. In the ﬁrst period, the action proﬁle a 0 (σ ) ≡ (σ1 (∅), . . . , σn (∅)) is played. In the second period, the history a 0 (σ ) implies that action proﬁle a 1 (σ ) ≡ (σ1 (a 0 (σ )), . . . , σn (a 0 (σ ))) is played. In the third period, the history (a 0 (σ ), a 1 (σ )) is observed, implying the action proﬁle a 2 (σ ) ≡ (σ1 (a 0 (σ ), a 1 (σ )), . . . , σn (a 0 (σ ), a 1 (σ ))) is played, and so on. Analogously, a behavior strategy proﬁle σ induces a path of play. In the ﬁrst period, σ (∅) is the initial mixed action proﬁle α 0 ∈ i (Ai ). In the second period, for each history a 0 in the support of α 0 , σ (a 0 ) is the mixed action proﬁle α 1 (a 0 ), and so on. For a pure strategy proﬁle, the induced path of play and induced outcome are the same. If the proﬁle has some mixing, however, then the proﬁle induces a path of play that speciﬁes, for each period t, a probability distribution over the histories at . The underlying behavior strategy speciﬁes a period t proﬁle of mixed stage-game actions for each such history at , in turn inducing a probability distribution α t+1 (at ) over period t+1 action proﬁles a t+1 , and hence a probability distribution over period t+1 histories at+1 .

2.1

■

21

The Canonical Repeated Game

Suppose σ is a pure strategy proﬁle. In period t, the induced pure action proﬁle a t (σ ) yields a ﬂow payoff of ui (a t (σ )) to player i. An outcome a(σ ) thus implies an inﬁnite stream of stage-game payoffs for each player i, given by (ui (a 0 (σ )), ui (a 1 (σ )), ui (a 2 (σ )), . . .) ∈ R∞ . Each player discounts these payoffs with the discount factor δ ∈ [0, 1), so that the average discounted payoff to player i from the inﬁnite sequence of payoffs (u0i , u1i , u2i , . . .) is given by (1 − δ)

∞

δ t uti .

t=0

The payoff from a pure strategy proﬁle σ is then given by Ui (σ ) = (1 − δ)

∞

δ t ui (a t (σ )).

(2.1.2)

t=0

As usual, the payoff to player i from a proﬁle of mixed or behavior strategies σ is the expected value of the payoffs of the realized outcomes, also denoted Ui (σ ). Observe that we normalize the payoffs in (2.1.2) (and throughout) by the factor (1 − δ). This ensures that U (σ ) = (U1 (σ ), . . . , Un (σ )) ∈ F † for all repeated-game strategy proﬁles σ . We can then readily compare payoffs in the repeated game and the stage game, and compare repeated-game payoffs for different (common) discount factors. Remark Public correlation notation In the repeated game with public correlation, a

2.1.3 t-period history is a list of t action proﬁles and t realizations of the public correlating device, (ω0 , a 0 ; ω1 , a 1 ; . . . ; ωt−1 , a t−1 ). In period t, as a measurable function of the period t history and the period t realization ωt , a behavior strategy speciﬁes αi ∈ (Ai ). As for games without public correlation, every t-period history induces a subgame that is strategically equivalent to the original game. In addition, there are subgames corresponding to the period t realizations ωt . Rather than explicitly describing the correlating device and the players’ actions as a function of its realization, strategy proﬁles are sometimes described by simply specifying a correlated action in each period. Such a strategy proﬁle in the repeated game with public monitoring speciﬁes in each period t, as a function of history ht−1 ∈ H t−1 , a correlated action proﬁle, that is, a joint distribution over the action proﬁles α ∈ i Ai . We also denote the reduction of the compound lottery induced by the public correlating device and subsequent individual randomization by α. The precise meaning will be clear from context. ◆ Remark Common discount factors With the exception of the discussion of reputations in

2.1.4 chapter 16, we assume that long-lived players share a common discount factor δ. This assumption is substantive. Consider the battle of the sexes in ﬁgure 2.1.3. The set of feasible payoffs F † is the convex hull of the set {(3, 1), (0, 0), (1, 3)}. For any common discount factor δ ∈ [0, 1), the set of feasible repeated-game payoffs is also the convex hull of {(3, 1), (0, 0), (1, 3)}. Suppose, however, players 1 and 2 have discount factors δ1 and δ2 with δ1 > δ2 , so that player 1 is more patient than player 2. Then any repeated-game strategy that calls for (B, L) to be played

22

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

L

R

T

0, 0

3, 1

B

1, 3

0, 0

Figure 2.1.3 A battle-of-the-sexes game.

in periods 0, . . . , T − 1 and (T , R) to be played in subsequent periods yields a repeated game vector outside the convex hull of {(3, 1), (0, 0), (1, 3)}, being in particular above the line segment joining payoffs (3, 1) and (1, 3). This outcome averages over the payoffs (3, 1) and (1, 3), but places relatively high player 2 payoffs in early periods and relatively high player 1 payoffs in later periods, giving repeated-game payoffs to the two players of player 1 : and player 2 :

(1 − δ1T ) + 3δ1T 3(1 − δ2T ) + δ2T .

Because δ1 > δ2 , each player’s convex combination is pushed in the direction of the outcome that is relatively lucrative for that player. This arrangement capitalizes on the differences in the two players’ discount factors, with the impatient player 2 essentially borrowing payoffs from the more patient player 1 in early periods to be repaid in later periods, to expand the set of feasible repeated-game payoffs beyond those of the stage game. Lehrer and Pauzner (1999) examine repeated games with differing discount factors. ◆ 2.1.4 Subgame-Perfect Equilibrium of the Repeated Game As usual, a Nash equilibrium is a strategy proﬁle in which each player is best responding to the strategies of the other players: Definition The strategy proﬁle σ is a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game if for all players

2.1.2 i and strategies σi ,

Ui (σ ) ≥ Ui (σi , σ−i ).

We have the following formalization of the discussion in section 2.1.1 and remark 2.1.2 on minmax utilities: p

Lemma If σ is a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium, then for all i, Ui (σ ) ≥ vi . If σ is a

2.1.1 (possibly mixed) Nash equilibrium, then for all i, Ui (σ ) ≥ vi .

Proof Consider a Nash equilibrium. Player i can always play the strategy that speciﬁes

a best reply to σ−i (ht ) after every history ht . In each period, i’s payoff is thus at p least vi if σ−i is pure (vi if σ−i is mixed), and so i’s payoff in the equilibrium p must be at least vi (vi , respectively). ■

2.1

■

The Canonical Repeated Game

23

We frequently make implicit use of the observation that a strategy of the repeated game with public correlation is a Nash equilibrium if and only if for almost all realizations of the public correlating device, the induced strategy proﬁle is a Nash equilibrium. In games with a nontrivial dynamic structure, Nash equilibrium is too permissive— there are Nash equilibrium outcomes that violate basic notions of optimality by specifying irrational behavior at out-of-equilibrium information sets. Similar considerations arise from the dynamic structure of a repeated game, even if actions are chosen simultaneously in the stage game. Consider a Nash equilibrium of an inﬁnitely repeated game with perfect monitoring. Associated with each history that cannot occur in equilibrium is a subgame. The notion of a Nash equilibrium imposes no optimality conditions in these subgames, opening the door to violations of sequential rationality. Subgame perfection strengthens Nash equilibrium by imposing the sequential rationality requirement that behavior be optimal in all circumstances, both those that arise in equilibrium (as required by Nash equilibrium) and those that arise out of equilibrium. In ﬁnite horizon games of perfect information, such sequential rationality is conveniently captured by requiring backward induction. We cannot appeal to backward induction in an inﬁnitely repeated game, which has no last period. We instead appeal to the underlying deﬁnition of sequential rationality as requiring equilibrium behavior in every subgame, where we exploit the strategic equivalence of the repeated game and the continuation game induced by history ht . Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game if for

2.1.3 all histories ht ∈ H , σ |ht is a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. The existence of subgame-perfect equilibria in a repeated game is immediate: Any proﬁle of strategies that induces the same Nash equilibrium of the stage game after every history of the repeated game is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the latter. For example, strategies that specify shirking after every history are a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated prisoners’ dilemma, as are strategies that specify low effort and the low-priced choice in every period (and after every history) of the productchoice game. If the stage game has more than one Nash equilibrium, strategies that assign any stage-game Nash equilibrium to each period t, independently of the history leading to period t, constitute a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Playing one’s part of a Nash equilibrium is always a best response in the stage game, and hence, as long as future play is independent of current actions, doing so is a best response in each period of a repeated game, regardless of the history of play. Although the notion of subgame perfection is intuitively appealing, it raises some potentially formidable technical difﬁculties. In principle, checking for subgame perfection involves checking whether an inﬁnite number of strategy proﬁles are Nash equilibria—the set H of histories is countably inﬁnite even if the stage-game action spaces are ﬁnite. Moreover, checking whether a proﬁle σ is a Nash equilibrium involves checking that player i’s strategy σi is no worse than an inﬁnite number of potential deviations (because player i could deviate in any period, or indeed in any combination of periods). The following sections show that we can simplify this task immensely, ﬁrst by limiting the number of alternative strategies that must be examined, then by organizing the subgames that must be checked for Nash equilibria into equivalence

24

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

classes, and ﬁnally by identifying a simple constructive method for characterizing equilibrium payoffs.

2.2

The One-Shot Deviation Principle

This section describes a critical insight from dynamic programming that allows us to restrict attention to a simple class of deviations when checking for subgame perfection. A one-shot deviation for player i from strategy σi is a strategy σˆ i = σi with the property that there exists a unique history h˜ t ∈ H such that for all hτ = h˜ t , σi (hτ ) = σˆ i (hτ ). Under public correlation, the history h˜ t includes the period t realization of the public correlating device. The strategy σˆ i plays identically to strategy σi in every period other than t and plays identically in period t if the latter is reached with some history other than h˜ t . A one-shot deviation thus agrees with the original strategy everywhere except at one history where the one-shot deviation occurs. However, a one-shot deviation can have a substantial effect on the resulting outcome. Example Consider the grim trigger strategy proﬁle in the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’

2.2.1 dilemma of section 1.2. The equilibrium outcome when two players each choose grim trigger is that both players exert effort in every period. Now consider the one-shot deviation σˆ 1 under which 1 plays as in grim trigger, with the exception of shirking in period 4 if there has been no previous shirking, that is, with the exception of shirking after the history (EE, EE, EE, EE). The deviating strategy shirks in every period after period 4, as does grim trigger, and hence we have an outcome that differs from the mutual play of grim trigger in inﬁnitely many periods. However, once the deviation has occurred, it is a prescription of grim trigger that one shirk thereafter. The only deviation from the original strategy hence occurs after the history (EE, EE, EE, EE). ●

Definition Fix a proﬁle of opponents’ strategies σ−i . A one-shot deviation σˆ i from strategy

2.2.1 σi is proﬁtable if, at the history h˜ t for which σˆ i (h˜ t ) = σi (h˜ t ), Ui (σˆ i |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t ) > Ui (σ |h˜ t ).

Notice that proﬁtability of σˆ i is deﬁned conditional on the history h˜ t being reached, though h˜ t may not be reached in equilibrium. Hence, a Nash equilibrium can have proﬁtable one-shot deviations. Example Consider again the prisoners’ dilemma. Suppose that strategies σ1 and σ2 both

2.2.2 specify effort in the ﬁrst period and effort as long as there has been no previous shirking, with any shirking prompting players to alternate between 10 periods of shirking and 1 of effort, regardless of any subsequent actions. For sufﬁciently

2.2

■

The One-Shot Deviation Principle

25

large discount factors, these strategies constitute a Nash equilibrium, inducing an outcome of mutual effort in every period. However, there are proﬁtable one-shot deviations. In particular, consider a history ht featuring mutual effort in every period except t − 11, at which point one player shirked, and periods t − 10, . . . , t − 1, in which both players shirked. The equilibrium strategy calls for both players to exert effort in period t, and then continue alternating 10 periods of shirking with a period of effort. A proﬁtable one-shot deviation for player 1 is to shirk after history ht , otherwise adhering to the equilibrium strategy. There are other proﬁtable one-shot deviations, as well as proﬁtable deviations that alter play after more than just a single history. However, all of these deviations increase proﬁts only after histories that do not occur along the equilibrium path, and hence none of them increases equilibrium proﬁts or vitiates the fact that the proposed strategies are a Nash equilibrium. ●

Proposition The one-shot deviation principle A strategy proﬁle σ is subgame perfect if and

2.2.1 only if there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations. To conﬁrm that a strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, we thus need only consider alternative strategies that deviate from the action proposed by σ once and then return to the prescriptions of the equilibrium strategy. As our prisoners’ dilemma example illustrates, this does not imply that the path of generated actions will differ from the equilibrium strategies in only one period. The deviation prompts a different history than does the equilibrium, and the equilibrium strategies may respond to this history by making different subsequent prescriptions. The importance of the one-shot deviation principle lies in the implied reduction in the space of deviations that need to be considered. In particular, we do not have to worry about alternative strategies that might deviate from the equilibrium strategy in period t, and then again in period t > t, and again in period t > t , and so on. For example, we need not consider a strategy that deviates from grim trigger in the prisoners’ dilemma by shirking in period 0, and then deviates from the equilibrium path (now featuring mutual shirking) in period 3, and perhaps again in period 6, and so on. Although this is obvious when examining such simple candidate equilibria in the prisoners’ dilemma, it is less clear in general. Proof We give the proof only for pure-strategy equilibria in the game without public

correlation. The extensions to mixed strategies and public correlation, though conceptually identical, are notationally cumbersome. If a proﬁle is subgame perfect, then clearly there can be no proﬁtable one-shot deviations. Conversely, we suppose that a proﬁle σ is not subgame perfect and show there must then be a proﬁtable one-shot deviation. Because the proﬁle is not subgame perfect, there exists a history h˜ t , player i, and a strategy σ˜ i , such that Ui (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t ) < Ui (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t ).

26

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

Let ε = Ui (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t ) − Ui (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t ). Let m = mini,a ui (a) and M = maxi,a ui (a). Let T be large enough that δ T (M − m) < ε/2. Then,

(1 − δ)

T −1

δ ui (a (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t )) + (1 − δ) τ

τ

∞

δ τ ui (a τ (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t ))

τ =T

τ =0

= (1 − δ)

T −1

δ ui (a (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t )) + (1 − δ) τ

τ

∞

δ τ ui (a τ (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t )) − ε,

τ =T

τ =0

so

(1 − δ)

T −1

δ τ ui (a τ (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t )) < (1 − δ)

τ =0

T −1 τ =0

ε δ τ ui (a τ (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t )) − , 2 (2.2.1)

because δ T (M − m) < ε/2 ensures that regardless of how the deviation in question affects play in period t + T and beyond, these variations in play have an effect on player i’s period t continuation payoff of strictly less than ε/2. This in turn implies that the strategy σˆ i , deﬁned by

σ˜ i (hτ ),

σˆ i (h ) = τ

σi |h˜ t σ˜ i (hτ ), = σi (h˜ t hτ ),

(hτ ),

if τ < T , if τ ≥ T , if τ < T , if τ ≥ T ,

is a proﬁtable deviation. In particular, strategy σˆ i agrees with σ˜ i over the ﬁrst T periods, and hence captures the payoff gains of ε/2 promised by (2.2.1). The strategy σˆ only differs from σi |h˜ t in the ﬁrst T periods. We have thus shown that if an equilibrium is not subgame perfect, there must be a proﬁtable T period deviation. The proof is now completed by arguing recursively on the value of T . Let hˆ T −1 ≡ (aˆ 0 , . . . , aˆ T −2 ) denote the T − 1 period history induced by (σˆ i , σ−i |h˜ t ). There are two possibilities: 1. Suppose Ui (σi |h˜ t hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ) < Ui (σˆ i |hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ). In this case, we have a proﬁtable one-shot deviation, after the history h˜ t hˆ T −1 (note that σˆ i |hˆ T −1 agrees with σi in period T and every period after T ). 2. Alternatively, suppose Ui (σi |h˜ t hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ) ≥ Ui (σˆ i |hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ). In this case, we deﬁne a new strategy, σ¯ i as follows: σ¯ i (h ) = τ

σˆ i (hτ ),

if τ < T − 1,

σi |h˜ t

if τ ≥ T − 1.

(hτ ),

2.2

■

The One-Shot Deviation Principle

27

Now, Ui (σˆ i |hˆ T −2 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −2 ) = (1 − δ)ui (aˆ T −1 ) + δUi (σˆ i |hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ) ≤ (1 − δ)ui (aˆ T −1 ) + δUi (σi |h˜ t hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ) = Ui (σ¯ i |hˆ T −2 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −2 ), which implies Ui (σˆ i , σ−i |h˜ t ) ≤ Ui (σ¯ i , σ−i |h˜ t ), and so σ¯ i is a proﬁtable deviation at h˜ t that only differs from σi |h˜ t in the ﬁrst T − 1 periods. Proceeding in this way, we must ﬁnd a proﬁtable one-shot deviation. ■

A key step in the proof is the observation that because payoffs are discounted, any strategy that offers a higher payoff than an equilibrium strategy must do so within a ﬁnite number of periods. A backward induction argument then allows us to show that if there is a proﬁtable deviation, there is a proﬁtable one-shot deviation. Fudenberg and Tirole (1991, section 4.2) show the one-shot deviation principle holds for a more general class of games with perfect monitoring, those with payoffs that are continuous at inﬁnity (a condition that essentially requires that actions in the far future have a negligible impact on current payoffs). In addition, the principle holds for sequential equilibria in any ﬁnite extensive form game (Osborne and Rubinstein 1994, exercise 227.1), as well as for perfect public equilibria of repeated games with public monitoring (proposition 7.1.1) and sequential equilibria of private-monitoring games with no observable deviations (proposition 12.2.2). Suppose we have a Nash equilibrium σ that is not subgame perfect. Then, from proposition 2.2.1, there must be a proﬁtable one-shot deviation from the strategy proﬁle σ . However, because σ is a Nash equilibrium, no deviation can increase either player’s equilibrium payoff. The proﬁtable one-shot deviation must then occur after a history that is not reached in the course of the Nash equilibrium. Example 2.2.2 provided an illustration. In light of this last observation, do we have a corresponding one-shot deviation principle for Nash equilibria? Is a strategy proﬁle σ a Nash equilibrium if and only if there are no one-shot deviations whose differences from σ occur after histories that arise along the equilibrium path? The answer is no. It is immediate from the deﬁnition of Nash equilibrium that there can be no proﬁtable one-shot deviations along the equilibrium path. However, their absence does not sufﬁce for Nash equilibrium, as we now show. Example Consider the prisoners’ dilemma, but with payoffs given in ﬁgure 2.2.1.9 Consider

2.2.3 the strategy proﬁle in which both players play tit-for-tat, exerting effort in the ﬁrst period and thereafter mimicking in each period the action chosen by the opponent 9. With the payoffs of ﬁgure 2.2.1, the incentives to shirk are independent of the action of the partner, and so the set of discount factors for which tit-for-tat is a Nash equilibrium coincides with the set for which there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations on histories that appear along the equilibrium path.

28

Chapter 2

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Perfect Monitoring

E

S −1, 4

E

3, 3

S

4, −1

1, 1

Figure 2.2.1 The prisoners’ dilemma with incentives

to shirk that depend on the opponent’s action.

in the previous period. The induced outcome is mutual effort in every period, yielding an equilibrium payoff of 3. To ensure that there are no proﬁtable oneshot deviations whose differences appear after equilibrium histories, we need only consider a strategy for player 1 that shirks in the ﬁrst period and otherwise plays as does tit-for-tat. Such a strategy induces a cyclic outcome of the form SE, ES, SE, ES, . . . , for a payoff of 4−δ

. (1 − δ) 4(1 + δ 2 + δ 4 + · · · ) − 1(δ + δ 3 + δ 5 + · · · ) = 1+δ There are then no proﬁtable one-shot deviations whose differences from the equilibrium strategy appear after equilibrium histories if and only if δ ≥ 14 . However, when δ = 1/4, the most attractive deviation from tit-for-tat in this game is perpetual shirking, which is not a one-shot deviation. For this deviation to be unproﬁtable, it must be that 3 ≥ (1 − δ)4 + δ = 4 − 3δ, and hence δ ≥ 13 . For δ ∈ [1/4, 1/3) tit-for-tat is thus not a Nash equilibrium, despite the absence of proﬁtable one-shot deviations that differ from tit-for-tat only after equilibrium histories. ●

What goes wrong if we mimic the proof of proposition 2.2.1 in an effort to show that if there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations from equilibrium histories, then we have a Nash equilibrium? Proceeding again with the contrapositive, we would begin with a strategy proﬁle that is not a Nash equilibrium. A proﬁtable deviation may involve a deviation on the equilibrium path, as well as subsequent deviations off-the-equilibrium path. Beginning with a proﬁtable deviation, and following the argument of the proof of proposition 2.2.1, we ﬁnd a proﬁtable one-shot deviation. The difﬁculty is that this one-shot deviation may occur off the equilibrium path. Although this is immaterial for subgame perfection, this difﬁculty scuttles the relationship between Nash equilibrium and proﬁtable one-shot deviations along the equilibrium path.

2.3

2.3

■

Automaton Representations

29

Automaton Representations of Strategy Proﬁles

The one-shot deviation principle simpliﬁes the set of alternative strategies we must check when evaluating subgame perfection. However, there still remains a potentially daunting number of histories to be evaluated. This evaluation can often be simpliﬁed by grouping histories into equivalence classes, where each member of an equivalence class induces an identical continuation strategy. We achieve this grouping by representing repeated-game strategies as automata, where the states of the automata represent equivalence classes of histories. An automaton (or machine) (W , w0 , f, τ ) consists of a set of states W , an initial state w0 ∈ W , an output (or decision) function f : W → i (Ai ) associating mixed action proﬁles with states, and a transition function, τ : W × A → W . The transition function identiﬁes the next state of the automaton, given its current state and the realized stage-game pure action proﬁle. If the function f speciﬁes a pure output at state w, we write f (w) for the resulting action proﬁle. If a mixture is speciﬁed by f at w, f w (a) denotes the probability attached to proﬁle a, so that a∈A f w (a) = 1 (recall that we only consider mixtures over ﬁnite action spaces, see remark 2.1.1). We emphasize that even if two automata only differ in their initial state, they nonetheless are different automata. Any automaton (W , w0 , f, τ ) with f specifying a pure action at every state induces an outcome {a 0 , a 1 , . . .} as follows: a 0 = σ (∅) = f (w 0 ), a 1 = σ (a 0 ) = f (τ (w 0 , a 0 )), a 2 = σ (a 0 , a 1 ) = f (τ (τ (w 0 , a 0 ), a 1 )), .. . We extend this to identify the strategy induced by an automaton. First, extend the transition function from the domain W × A to the domain W × H \{∅} by recursively deﬁning τ (w, ht ) = τ (τ (w, h t−1 ), a t−1 ). With this deﬁnition, we have the strategy σ described by σ (∅) = f (w 0 ) and σ (ht ) = f (τ (w0 , ht )). Similarly, an automaton for which f sometimes speciﬁes mixed actions induces a path of play and a strategy. Conversely, it is straightforward that any strategy proﬁle can be represented by an automaton. Take the set of histories H as the set of states, the null history ∅ as the initial state, f (ht ) = σ (ht ), and τ (ht , a) = ht+1 , where ht+1 ≡ (ht , a) is the concatenation of the history ht with the action proﬁle a. This representation leaves us in the position of working with the full set of histories H . However, strategy proﬁles can often be represented by automata with ﬁnite sets W . The set W is then a partition on H , grouping together those histories that prompt identical continuation strategies.

30

Chapter 2

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Perfect Monitoring

We say that a state w ∈ W is accessible from another state w ∈ W if there exists a sequence of action proﬁles such that beginning at w, the automaton eventually reaches w . More formally, there exists ht such that w = τ (w, ht ). Accessibility is not symmetric. Consequently, in an automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ), even if every state in W is accessible from the initial state w0 , this may not be true if some other state replaced w 0 as the initial state (see example 2.3.1). Remark Individual automata For most of parts I and II, it is sufﬁcient to use a single

2.3.1 automaton to represent strategy proﬁles. We can also represent a single strategy σi by an automaton (Wi , wi0 , fi , τi ). However, because every mixed strategy has a realization equivalent behavior strategy, we can always choose the automaton to have deterministic transitions, and so for any strategy proﬁle represented by a collection of individual automata (one for each player), we can deﬁne a single “grand” automaton to represent the proﬁle in the obvious way. The same is true for public strategies in public-monitoring games (the topic of much of part II), but is not true more generally (we will see examples in sections 5.1.2, 10.4.2, and 14.1.1). Our use of automata (following Osborne and Rubinstein 1994) is also to be distinguished from a well-developed body of work, beginning with such publications as Neyman (1985), Rubinstein (1986), Abreu and Rubinstein (1988), and Kalai and Stanford (1988), that uses automata to both represent and impose restrictions on the complexity of strategies in repeated games. The technique in such studies is to represent each player’s strategy as an automaton, replacing the repeated game with an automaton-choice game in which players choose the automata that will then implement their strategies. In particular, players in that work have preferences over the nature of the automaton, typically preferring automata with fewer states. In this book, players only have preferences over payoff streams and automata solely represent behavior. ◆ Remark Continuation profiles When a strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automa-

2.3.2 ton (W , w 0 , f, τ ), the continuation strategy proﬁle after the history ht , σ |ht , is described by the automaton obtained by using τ (w0 , ht ) as the initial state, that is, (W , τ (w 0 , ht ), f, τ ). If every state in W is accessible from w 0 , then the collection of all continuation strategy proﬁles is described by the collection of automata {(W , w, f, τ ) : w ∈ W }. ◆ Example We illustrate these ideas by presenting the automaton representation of a pair of

2.3.1 players using grim trigger in the prisoners’ dilemma (see ﬁgure 2.3.1). The set of states is W = {wEE , wSS }, with output function f (wEE ) = EE and f (wSS ) = SS. We thus have one state in which both players exert effort and one in which they both shirk. The initial state is wEE . The transition function is given by wEE , if w = wEE and a = EE, τ (w, a) = (2.3.1) wSS , otherwise. Grim trigger is described by the automaton (W , wEE , f, τ ), whereas the continuation strategy proﬁle after any history in which EE is not played in at least one

2.3

■

31

Automaton Representations

EE

EE , ES , SE , SS ES , SE , SS

wEE

wSS

w0 Figure 2.3.1 Automaton representation of grim trigger. Circles are states and arrows transitions, labeled by the proﬁles leading to the transitions. The subscript on a state indicates the action proﬁle to be taken at that state.

period is described by (W , wSS , f, τ ). Note that although every state in W is accessible from wEE , the state wEE is not accessible from wSS . ●

The advantage of the automaton representation is that we need only verify the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w, f, τ ) is a Nash equilibrium, for each w ∈ W , to conﬁrm that the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w0 , f, τ ) is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. The following result is immediate from remark 2.3.2 (and its proof omitted). Proposition The strategy proﬁle with representing automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ) is a subgame-

2.3.1 perfect equilibrium if and only if, for all w ∈ W accessible from w0 , the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w, f, τ ) is a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. Each state of the automaton identiﬁes an equivalence class of histories after which the strategies prescribe identical continuation play. The requirement that the strategy proﬁle induced by each state of the automaton (i.e., by taking that state to be the initial state) corresponds to a Nash equilibrium is then equivalent to the requirement that we have Nash equilibrium continuation play after every history. This result simpliﬁes matters by transferring our concern from the set of histories H to the set of states of the automaton representation of a strategy. If W is simply the set of all histories H , little has been gained. However, it is often the case that W is considerably smaller than the set of histories, with many histories associated with each state of (W , w, f, τ ), as example 2.3.1 shows is the case with grim trigger. Verifying that each state induces a Nash equilibrium is then much simpler than checking every history. Remark Public correlation The automaton representation of a pure strategy proﬁle in

2.3.3 the game with public correlation, (W , µ0 , f, τ ) changes the description only in that the initial state is now randomly determined by a distribution µ0 ∈ (W ) and the transition function maps into probability distributions over states, that is, τ : W × A → (W ); τw (w, a) is the probability that next period’s state is w when the current state is w and current pure action proﬁle is a. A state w ∈ W is accessible from µ ∈ (W ) if there exists a sequence of action proﬁles such that beginning at some state in the support of µ, the automaton eventually reaches w with positive probability. Proposition 2.3.1 holds as stated, with µ0 replacing w 0 , under public correlation. ◆

32

Chapter 2

2.4

■

Perfect Monitoring

Credible Continuation Promises

This section uses the one-shot deviation principle to transform the task of checking that each state induces a Nash equilibrium in the repeated game to one of checking that each state induces a Nash equilibrium in an associated simultaneous move, or “one-shot” game. Fix an automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ) where all w ∈ W are accessible from w 0 , and let Vi (w) be player i’s average discounted value from play that begins in state w. That is, if play in the game follows the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w, f, τ ), then Vi (w) is player i’s average discounted payoff from the resulting outcome path. Although Vi can be calculated directly from the inﬁnite sum, it is often easier to work with a recursive formulation, noting that at any state w, Vi (w) is the average of current payoffs ui (with weight (1 − δ)) and continuation payoffs (with weight δ). If the output function f is pure at w, then current payoffs are simply ui (f (w)), whereas the continuation payoffs are Vi (τ (w, f (w))), because the current action proﬁle f (w) causes a transition from w to τ (w, f (w)). This extends to mixed-action proﬁles when A is ﬁnite. Payoffs are the expected value of ﬂow payoffs under f , given by

ui (a)f w (a),

a

and continuation payoffs are the expected value of the different states that are reached from the current realized action proﬁle,

Vi (τ (w, a))f w (a).

a

Consequently, Vi satisﬁes the system of linear equations, Vi (w) = (1 − δ)

a

ui (a)f w (a) + δ

Vi (τ (w, a))f w (a),

∀w ∈ W ,

(2.4.1)

a

which has a unique solution in the space of bounded functions on W .10 If an automaton with deterministic outputs is currently in state w, whether on the equilibrium path or as the result of a deviation, and if player i expects the other players to subsequently follow the strategy proﬁle described by the automaton, then player i expects to receive a ﬂow payoff of ui (ai , f−i (w)) from playing ai . The resulting action proﬁle (ai , f−i (w)) then implies a transition to a new state w = τ (w, (ai , f−i (w))). If all players follow the strategy proﬁle in subsequent periods (a circumstance the one-shot deviation principle makes of interest), then player i expects a continuation value of Vi (w ). Accordingly, we interpret Vi (w ) as a continuation promise and view the proﬁle as making such promises. Intuitively, a subgame-perfect equilibrium strategy proﬁle is one whose continuation promises are credible. Given the continuation promise Vi (w ) for player i at 10. The mapping described by the right side of (2.4.1) is a contraction on the space of bounded functions on W , and so has a unique ﬁxed point.

2.4

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33

Credible Continuation Promises

each state w , player i is willing to choose an action ai in the support of fi (w) if, for all ai ∈ Ai , (1 − δ)

ui (ai , a−i )f w (a−i ) + δ

a−i

≥ (1 − δ)

Vi (τ (w, (ai , a−i )))f w (a−i )

a−i

ui (ai , a−i )f (a−i ) + δ w

a−i

Vi (τ (w, (ai , a−i )))f w (a−i ),

a−i

or, equivalently, if for all ai ∈ Ai , ui (ai , a−i )f w (a−i ) + δ Vi (τ (w, (ai , a−i )))f w (a−i ). Vi (w) ≥ (1 − δ) a−i

a−i

We say that continuation promises are credible if the corresponding inequality holds for each player and state. Let V (w) = (V1 (w), . . . , Vn (w)). Proposition Suppose the strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ). The

2.4.1 strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from w0 , f (w) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal form game described by the payoff function g w : A → Rn , where g w (a) = (1 − δ)u(a) + δV (τ (w, a)).

(2.4.2)

Proof We give the argument for automata with deterministic output functions. The

extension to mixtures is immediate but notationally cumbersome. Let σ be the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w 0 , f, τ ). We ﬁrst show that if f (w) is a Nash equilibrium in the normal-form game g w , for every w ∈ W , then there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations from σ . By proposition 2.2.1, this sufﬁces to show that σ is subgame perfect. To do this, let σˆ i be a one-shot deviation, hˆ t be the history for which σi (hˆ t ) = σˆ i (hˆ t ), and wˆ be the state reached by the history hˆ t , that is, wˆ = τ (w0 , hˆ t ). Finally, let ai = σˆ i (hˆ t ). Then, ˆ Ui (σi |hˆ t , σ−i |hˆ t ) = Vi (w), and, because σˆ i is a one-shot deviation, ˆ (ai , σ−i |hˆ t (∅)) Ui (σˆ i |hˆ t , σ−i |hˆ t ) = (1 − δ)ui ai , σ−i |hˆ t (∅) + δVi τ w, ˆ + δVi (τ (w, ˆ (ai , f−i (w)))). ˆ = (1 − δ)ui (ai , f−i (w)) Thus, if for all wˆ ∈ W , f (w) ˆ is a Nash equilibrium of the game g wˆ , then no one-shot deviation is proﬁtable. Conversely, suppose there is some wˆ ∈ W accessible from w 0 and ai such that (1 − δ)ui (ai , f−i (w)) ˆ + δVi (τ (w, ˆ (ai , f−i (w)))) ˆ > Vi (w), ˆ

(2.4.3)

so f (w) ˆ is not a Nash equilibrium of the game induced by g wˆ . Again, by proposition 2.2.1, it sufﬁces to show that there is a proﬁtable one-shot deviation from σ .

34

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 2.4.1 The prisoners’ dilemma from ﬁgure 1.2.1.

Because wˆ is accessible from w 0 , there is a history hˆ t such that wˆ = τ (w 0 , hˆ t ). Let σˆ i be the strategy deﬁned by ai , if hτ = hˆ t , τ σˆ i (h ) = σi (hτ ), if hτ = hˆ t . Then, σˆ i is a one-shot deviation from σi , and it is proﬁtable (from (2.4.3)). ■

Public correlation does not introduce any complications, and so an essentially identical argument yields the following proposition (the notation is explained in remark 2.3.3). Proposition In the game with public correlation, the strategy proﬁle (W , µ0 , f, τ ) is a

2.4.2 subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from µ0 , f (w) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal form game described by the payoff function g w : A → Rn , where V (w )τw (w, a). g w (a) = (1 − δ)u(a) + δ w ∈W

Example Consider the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma with the stage game of

2.4.1 ﬁgure 1.2.1, reproduced in ﬁgure 2.4.1. We argued in section 1.2 that grim trigger is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if δ ≥ 1/3, and in example 2.3.1 that the proﬁle has an automaton representation (given in ﬁgure 2.3.1). It is straightforward to calculate V (wEE ) = (2, 2) and V (wSS ) = (0, 0). We can thus view the strategy proﬁle as “promising” 2 if EE is played, and “promising” (or “threatening”) 0 if not. We now illustrate proposition 2.4.1. There are two one-shot games to be analyzed, one for each state. The game for w = wEE has payoffs (1 − δ)ui (a) + δVi (τ (wEE , a)). The associated payoff matrix is given in ﬁgure 2.4.2. If δ < 1/3, SS is the only Nash equilibrium of the one-shot game, and so grim trigger cannot be a subgame-perfect equilibrium. On the other hand, if δ ≥ 1/3, both EE and SS are Nash equilibria. Hence, f (wEE ) = EE is a Nash equilibrium, as required by proposition 2.4.1.11 11. There is no requirement that f (w) be the only Nash equilibrium of the one-shot game.

2.4

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35

Credible Continuation Promises

E

S

E

2, 2

−(1 − δ), 3(1 − δ)

S

3(1 − δ), −(1 − δ)

0, 0

Figure 2.4.2 The payoff matrix for w = wEE .

E

S

E

2(1 − δ), 2(1 − δ)

−(1 − δ), 3(1 − δ)

S

3(1 − δ), −(1 − δ)

0, 0

Figure 2.4.3 The payoff matrix for w = wSS .

The payoff matrix of the one-shot game associated with wSS is displayed in ﬁgure 2.4.3. For any value δ ∈ [0, 1), the only Nash equilibrium is SS, which is the action proﬁle speciﬁed by f in the state wSS . Putting these results together with proposition 2.4.1, grim trigger is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if δ ≥ 1/3. ●

Just as there is no corresponding version of the one-shot deviation principle for Nash equilibrium, there is no result corresponding to proposition 2.4.1 for Nash equilibrium. We illustrate this in the ﬁnal paragraph of example 2.4.2. Example We now consider tit-for-tat in the prisoners’dilemma of ﬁgure 2.2.1. An automaton

2.4.2 representation of tit-for-tat is W = {wEE , wSS , wES , wSE }, w 0 = wEE , f (wa1 a2 ) = a1 a2 , and τ (wa , a1 a2 ) = wa2 a1 . The induced outcome is that both players exert effort in every period, and the only state reached is wEE . The linear equations used to deﬁne the payoff function g w for the associated one-shot games (see (2.4.2)), are V1 (wEE ) = 3, V1 (wSS ) = 1, V1 (wES ) = −(1 − δ) + δV1 (wSE ), and V1 (wSE ) = 4(1 − δ) + δV1 (wES ).

36

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

Solving the last two equations gives V1 (wES ) =

4δ − 1 1+δ

V1 (wSE ) =

4−δ . 1+δ

and

Now, EE is a Nash equilibrium of the game for w = wEE if 3 ≥ (1 − δ)4 + δV1 (wES ) = (1 − δ)4 +

δ(4δ − 1) , 1+δ

which is equivalent to δ ≥ 14 . Turning to the states wES and wSE , E is a best response if 4δ − 1 ≥ (1 − δ)1 + δ1 = 1, 1+δ giving δ ≥ 23 . Finally, S is a best response if 4−δ ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ3 = 3, 1+δ or δ ≤ 14 . Given the obvious inability to ﬁnd a discount factor satisfying these various restrictions, we conclude that tit-for-tat is not subgame perfect. The failure of a one-shot deviation principle for Nash equilibrium that we discussed earlier is also reﬂected here. For δ ≥ 1/4, the action proﬁle EE is a Nash equilibrium of the game for state wEE , the only state reached along the equilibrium path. This does not imply that tit-for-tat is a Nash equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated game. Tit-for-tat is a Nash equilibrium only if a deviation to always defecting is unproﬁtable, or 3 ≥ (1 − δ)4 + δ = 4 − 3δ ⇒ δ ≥ 13 , a more severe constraint than δ ≥ 1/4. We thus do not have a counterpart of proposition 2.4.1 for Nash equilibria (that would characterize Nash equilibria as corresponding to automata that generate Nash equilibria of the repeated game in every state reached in equilibrium). ●

2.5

2.5

■

37

Generating Equilibria

Generating Equilibria

Many arguments in repeated games are based on constructive proofs. We are often interested in equilibria with certain properties, such as equilibria featuring the highest or lowest payoffs for some players, and the argument proceeds by exhibiting an equilibrium with the desired properties. When reasoning in this way, we are faced with the prospect of searching through a prohibitively immense set of possible equilibria. In the next two sections, we describe two complementary approaches for ﬁnding equilibria. This section, based on Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990), introduces and illustrates the ideas of a self-generating set of equilibrium payoffs. Section 2.6, based on Abreu (1986, 1988), uses these results to introduce “simple” strategies and show that any subgame-perfect equilibrium can be obtained via such strategies. For expositional clarity, we restrict attention to pure strategies in the next two sections. The notions of enforceability and pure-action decomposability, introduced in section 2.5.1, extend in an obvious way to mixed actions (and we do this in chapter 7), as do the notions of penal codes and optimal penal codes of section 2.6. 2.5.1 Constructing Equilibria: Self-Generation We begin with a simple observation that has important implications. Denote the set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs by E p ⊂ Rn . For each v ∈ E p , σ v denotes a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium yielding the payoff v. Suppose that for some action proﬁle a ∗ ∈ A there is a function, γ : A → E p , with the property that, for all players i, and all ai ∈ Ai , ∗ ∗ ) + δγi (ai , a−i ). (1 − δ)ui (a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i

Consider the strategy proﬁle that speciﬁes the action proﬁle a ∗ in the initial period, and after any action proﬁle a ∈ A plays according to σ γ (a) . Proposition 2.4.1 implies that this proﬁle is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, with a value of (1 − δ)ui (a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ) ∈ E p . Suppose now that instead of taking E p as the range for γ , we take instead some arbitrary subset W of the set of feasible payoffs, F † . Definition A pure action proﬁle a ∗ is enforceable on W if there exists some speciﬁcation of

2.5.1 (not necessarily credible) continuation promises γ : A → W such that, for all players i, and all ai ∈ Ai , ∗ ∗ ) + δγi (ai , a−i ). (1 − δ)ui (a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i

In other words, when the other players play their part of an enforceable proﬁle a ∗ , the continuation promises γi make (enforce) the choice of ai∗ optimal (incentive compatible) for i. Definition A payoff v ∈ F † is pure-action decomposable on W if there exists a pure action

2.5.2 proﬁle a ∗ enforceable on W such that

vi = (1 − δ)ui (a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ), where γ is a function enforcing a ∗ .

38

Chapter 2

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Perfect Monitoring

If a payoff vector is pure-action decomposable on W , then it is “one-period credible” with respect to promises in the set W . If those promises are themselves pure-action decomposable on W , then the original payoff vector is “two-period credible.” If a set of payoffs W is pure-action decomposable on itself, then each such payoff has “inﬁnite-period credibility.” One might expect such a payoff vector to be a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff, and indeed this is correct. Proposition Any set of payoffs W ⊂ F † with the property that every payoff in W is pure-

2.5.1 action decomposable on W is a set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs. The proof views W as the set of states for an automaton. Pure-action decomposability allows us to associate an action proﬁle and a transition function describing continuation values to each payoff proﬁle in W . Proof For each payoff proﬁle v ∈ W , let a(v) ˜ and γ v : A → W be the decomposing

pure-action proﬁle and its enforcing continuation promise. Consider the collection of automata {(W , v, f, τ ) : v ∈ W }, where the common set of states is given by W , the common decision function by f (v) = a(v) ˜ for all v ∈ W , and the common transition function by τ (v, a) = γ v (a), for all a ∈ A. These automata differ only in their initial state v ∈ W . We need to show that for each v ∈ W , the automaton (W , v, f, τ ) describes a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoff v. This will be an implication of proposition 2.4.1 and the pure-action decomposability of each v ∈ W , once we have shown that vi = Vi (v), where Vi (v) is the value to player i of being in state v. Because each v ∈ W is decomposable by a pure action proﬁle, for any v we can 0 deﬁne a sequence of payoff-action proﬁle pairs {(v k , a k )}∞ k=0 as follows: v = v, k−1 0 0 k v k−1 k k ˜ ), v = γ (a ), and a = a(v ˜ ). We then have a = a(v vi = (1 − δ)ui (a 0 ) + δvi1 = (1 − δ)ui (a 0 ) + δ{(1 − δ)ui (a 1 ) + δvi2 } = (1 − δ)

t−1

δ s ui (a s ) + δ t vit .

s=0

Since

vit

∈

F †,

{vit }

is a bounded sequence, and taking t → ∞ yields vi = (1 − δ)

∞

δ s ui (a s )

s=0

and so vi = Vi (v). ■

2.5

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39

Generating Equilibria

Definition A set W is pure-action self-generating if every payoff in W is pure-action

2.5.3 decomposable on W .

An immediate implication of this result is the following important result. Corollary The set E p of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs is the largest

2.5.1 pure-action self-generating set. In particular, it is clear that any pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff is pure-action decomposable on the set E p , because this is simply the statement that every history must give rise to continuation play that is itself a pure-strategy subgameperfect equilibrium. The set E P is thus pure-action self-generating. Proposition 2.5.1 implies that any other pure-action self-generating set is also a set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibria, and hence must be a subset of E p . Remark Fixed point characterization of self-generation For any set W ⊂ F † , let Ba (W )

2.5.1 be the set of payoffs v ∈ F † decomposed by a ∈ A and continuations in W . Corollary 2.5.1 can then be written as: The set E p is the largest set W satisfying W = ∪a∈A Ba (W ). When players have access to a public correlating device, a payoff v is decomposed by a distribution over action proﬁles α and continuation values. Hence the set of payoffs that can be decomposed on a set W using public correlation is co(∪a∈A Ba (coW )), where coW denotes the convex hull of W . Hence, the set of equilibrium payoffs under public correlation is the largest convex set W satisfying W = co(∪a∈A Ba (W )). ◆ We then have the following useful result (a similar proof shows that the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs is compact).

Proposition The set E p ⊂ Rn of pure-strategy subgame-equilibrium payoffs is compact.

2.5.2 Proof Because E p is a bounded subset of a Euclidean space, it sufﬁces (from corol-

lary 2.5.1) to show that its closure E p is pure-action self-generating. Let v be a payoff proﬁle in E p , and suppose {v () }∞ =0 is a sequence of purestrategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs, converging to v, with each v () decomposable via the action proﬁle a () and continuation promise γ () . If every Ai is ﬁnite, {(a () , γ () )} lies in the compact set A × (E p )A , and so there is a subsequence converging to (a ∞ , γ ∞ ), with a ∞ ∈ A and γ ∞ (a) ∈ E p for all a ∈ A. Moreover, it is immediate that (a ∞ , γ ∞ ) decomposes v on E p . Suppose now that Ai is a continuum action space for some i. Although (E p )A is not sequentially compact, we can proceed as follows. For each and i, let v (),i ∈ E p such that

40

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring (),i

vi

= inf γi (ai , a−i ) ()

()

ai =ai

()

and γˆ

()

(a) =

v (),i ,

()

if ai = ai

γ () (a () ),

()

and a−i = a−i for some i,

otherwise.

Clearly, each v () is decomposed by a () and γˆ () . Let A () denote the ﬁnite partition of A given by {A(),k : k = 0, . . . , n}, where A(),i = {a ∈ A : ai = () () ai , a−i = a−i } and A(),0 = A \ ∪i A(),i . Because γˆ () is measurable with respect to A () , which has n + 1 elements, we can treat γˆ () as a function from the ﬁnite set {0, . . . , n} into E p , and so there is a convergent subsequence, and the argument is completed as for ﬁnite Ai . ■

2.5.2 Example: Mutual Effort This and the following two subsections illustrate decomposability and self-generation. We work with the prisoners’ dilemma shown in ﬁgure 2.5.1. We ﬁrst identify the set of discount factors for which there exists a subgameperfect equilibrium in which both players exert effort in every period. In light of proposition 2.5.1, this is equivalent to identifying the discount factors for which there is a self-generating set of payoffs W containing (2, 2). If such a set W is to exist, then the action proﬁle EE is enforceable on W , or, (1 − δ)2 + δγ1 (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)b + δγ1 (SE) and (1 − δ)2 + δγ2 (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)b + δγ2 (ES), for γ (EE), γ (SE) and γ (ES) in W ⊂ F † . These inequalities are least restrictive when γ1 (SE) = γ2 (ES) = 0. Because the singleton set of payoffs {(0, 0)} is itself self-generating, we sacriﬁce no generality by assuming the self-generating set contains (0, 0). We can then set γ1 (SE) = γ2 (ES) = 0. Similarly, the pair of inequalities is least restrictive when γi (EE) = 2 for i = 1, 2. Taking this to the case, the inequalities hold when

E E

2, 2

S

b, −c

S −c, b 0, 0

Figure 2.5.1 Prisoners’ dilemma, where b > 2, c > 0, and b − c < 4.

2.5

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41

Generating Equilibria

δ≥

b−2 b .

(2.5.1)

The inequality given by (2.5.1) is thus necessary for the existence of a subgame-perfect equilibrium giving payoff (2, 2). The inequality is sufﬁcient as well, because it implies that the set {(0, 0), (2, 2)} is self-generating. For the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 2.4.1, we have the familiar result that δ ≥ 1/3. 2.5.3 Example: The Folk Theorem We next identify the set of discount factors under which a pure-strategy folk theorem result holds, in the sense that the set of pure strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs E P contains the set of feasible, strictly individually rational payoffs F †p , which equals F ∗ for the prisoners’ dilemma. Hence, we seek a pure-action selfgenerating set W containing F ∗ . Because the set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs is compact, if F ∗ is pure-action self-generating, then so is its closure F ∗ . The payoff proﬁles in F ∗ are feasible and weakly individually rational, differing from those in F ∗ by including proﬁles in which one or both players receive their minmax payoff of 0. Because the set of pure-action subgame-perfect equilibria is the largest pure-action self-generating set, our candidate for the pure-action selfgenerating set W must be F ∗ . If F ∗ is pure-action self-generating, then every v ∈ F ∗ is precisely the payoff of some pure strategy equilibrium. Note that this includes those v that are convex combinations of payoffs in F p with irrational weights (reﬂecting the denseness of the rationals in the reals). We begin by identifying the sets of payoffs that are pure-action decomposable using the four pure action proﬁles EE, ES, SE, and SS, and continuation payoffs in F ∗ . Consider ﬁrst EE. This action proﬁle is enforced by γ on F ∗ if (1 − δ)2 + δγ1 (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)b + δγ1 (SE) and (1 − δ)2 + δγ2 (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)b + δγ2 (ES). We are interested in the set of payoffs that can be decomposed using the action proﬁle EE. The ﬁrst step in ﬁnding this set is to identify the continuation payoffs γ (EE) that are consistent with enforcing EE. Because vi ≥ 0 for all v ∈ F ∗ and (0, 0) ∈ F ∗ , the largest set of values of γ (EE) consistent with enforcing EE is found by setting γ1 (SE) = γ2 (ES) = 0 (which minimizes the right side). The set AEE of continuation payoffs γ (EE) consistent with enforcing EE is, then, (b − 2)(1 − δ) AEE = γ ∈ F ∗ : γi ≥ , δ and the set of payoffs that are decomposable using EE and F ∗ is BEE = {γ ∈ F ∗ : γ = (1 − δ)(2, 2) + δγ (EE), γ (EE) ∈ AEE }. This set is simply BEE (F ∗ ) (see remark 2.5.1).

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The incentive constraints for the action proﬁle ES are −(1 − δ)c + δγ1 (ES) ≥ δγ1 (SS) and (1 − δ)b + δγ2 (ES) ≥ (1 − δ)2 + δγ2 (EE). We are again interested in the largest set of continuation values, in this case values γ (ES), consistent with the incentive constraints. The second inequality can be ignored, because we can set γ (EE) = γ (ES), implying γ2 (EE) = γ2 (ES). As before, we minimize the right side of the ﬁrst inequality by setting γ1 (SS) = 0 (which we can do by taking γ (SS) = (0, 0)). Hence, the set of continuation payoffs γ (ES) consistent with enforcing the proﬁle ES is c(1 − δ) ∗ AES = γ ∈ F : γ1 ≥ δ and the set of payoffs decomposable using ES and F ∗ is BES = {γ ∈ F ∗ : γ = (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δγ (ES), γ (ES) ∈ AES }. A similar argument shows that the set of continuation payoffs consistent with enforcing the proﬁle SE is c(1 − δ) , ASE = γ ∈ F ∗ : γ2 ≥ δ and the set of payoffs decomposable using SE and F ∗ is BSE = {γ ∈ F ∗ : γ = (1 − δ)(b, −c) + δγ (SE), γ (SE) ∈ ASE }. Finally, because SS is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, and hence no appeal to continuation payoffs need be made when constructing current incentives to play SS, the set of continuation payoffs consistent with enforcing SS as an initial period action proﬁle is the set ASS = F ∗ , and the set of payoffs decomposable using SS and F ∗ is BSS = {γ ∈ F ∗ : γ = δγ (SS), γ (SS) ∈ F ∗ }. A geometric representation of the sets Ba1 a2 is helpful. We can write them as: BEE = {v ∈ (1 − δ)(2, 2) + δF ∗ : vi ≥ (1 − δ)b, i = 1, 2}, BES = {v ∈ (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δF ∗ : v1 ≥ 0}, BSE = {v ∈ (1 − δ)(b, −c) + δF ∗ : v2 ≥ 0}, and BSS = δF ∗ . Each set is a subset of the convex combination of the ﬂow payoffs implied by the relevant pure action proﬁle and F ∗ , with the appropriate restriction implied by incentive compatibility. For example, the restriction in AEE that γi (EE) ≥ (b − 2)(1 − δ)/δ implies

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Generating Equilibria

vi = (1 − δ)2 + δγi (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)2 + δ

(b − 2)(1 − δ) δ

= (1 − δ)b.

Similarly, the restriction in AES that γ1 (ES) ≥ c(1 − δ)/δ implies v1 ≥ (1 − δ)(−c) + δ

c(1 − δ) = 0. δ

Figure 2.5.2 illustrates these sets for a case in which they are nonempty and do not intersect. The set BEE is nonempty when (2.5.1) holds (i.e., δ ≥ (b − 2)/b) and includes all those payoff proﬁles in F ∗ whose components both exceed (1 − δ)b. Hence, when nonempty, BEE includes the upper right corner of the set F ∗ . The set BSS is necessarily nonempty and reproduces F ∗ in miniature, anchored at the origin. The set BES is in the upper left, if it is nonempty, consisting of a shape with either three or four sides, one of which is the line γ2 = (1 − δ)b and one of which is the vertical axis, with the remaining two sides (or single side) being parallel to the efﬁcient frontier (parallel to the efﬁcient frontier between (2, 2) and the horizontal axis). Whether this shape has three or four sides depends on whether (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δ(2, 2), the payoff generated by (2, 2), lies to the left (three sides) or right (four sides) of the vertical axis. When do the sets BEE , BES , BSE , and BSS have F ∗ as their union? If they do, then ∗ F is self-generating, and hence we can support any payoff in F ∗ as a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. From ﬁgure 2.5.2 we can derive a pair of simple necessary and sufﬁcient conditions for this to be the case. First, the point (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δ(2, 2), the top right corner of BES , must lie to the right of the top-left corner of BEE . This requires (1 − δ)(−c) + δ2 ≥ (1 − δ)b. Applying symmetric reasoning to BSE , this condition will sufﬁce to ensure that any payoff in F ∗ with at least one component above (1 − δ)b is contained in either BEE ,

( −c , b )

(1 − δ )( −c, b) + δ ( 2,2)

(1 − δ )(−c, b)

(2, 2)

BES

BEE (1 − δ )( −c, b) + δ (v ,0)

δ ( 2,2) BSS

BSE

(v ,0)

(0,0) (1 − δ )(b,0)

(b,−c)

Figure 2.5.2 Illustration of the sets BEE , BES , BSE , and BSS . This is drawn for δ = 1/2 and the payoffs from ﬁgure 2.4.1. Because b = c + 2, the right edge of BES is a continuation of the right edge of BSS ; a similar comment applies to the top edges of BSS and BSE .

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BES , or BSE . To ensure that BSS contains the rest, it sufﬁces that the top right corner of BSS lie above the bottom left boundary of BEE , which is δ2 ≥ (1 − δ)b. Solving these two inequalities, we have12 b+c b+c b δ ≥ max , = . b+c+2 b+2 b+c+2 For the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 2.4.1, we have δ ≥ 2/3. The previous section showed that when δ ≥ 1/3, there exist equilibria supporting mutual effort in every period. When δ ≥ 2/3, there are also equilibria in which every other feasible weakly individually rational payoff proﬁle is an equilibrium outcome. 2.5.4 Example: Constructing Equilibria for Low δ We now return to the prisoners’ dilemma in ﬁgure 2.4.1. We examine the set of subgame-perfect equilibria in which player 2 always plays E. Mailath, Obara, and Sekiguchi (2002) provide a detailed analysis. We proceed just far enough to illustrate how equilibria can be constructed using decomposability. Deviations from the candidate equilibrium outcome path trigger a switch to perpetual shirking, the most severe punishment available. It is immediate that if player 2’s incentive constraint is satisﬁed, then so is player 1’s, so we focus on player 2. Let γ2t denote the normalized discounted value to player 2 of the continuation outcome path {(a1τ , E)}∞ τ =t beginning in period t. Given the punishment of persistent defection, the condition that it be optimal for player 2 to continue with the equilibrium action of effort in period t ≥ 0 is (1 − δ)u2 (a1t , E) + δγ2t+1 ≥ (1 − δ)u2 (a1t , S) + δ × 0, which holds if and only if γ2t+1 ≥

1−δ . δ

(2.5.2)

Thus, player 2’s continuation value is always at least (1 − δ)/δ in any equilibrium in which 2 currently exerts effort. Denote by W2EE the set of payoffs for player 2 that can be decomposed through a combination of mutual effort (EE) in the current period coupled with a payoff γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2]. Then we have v2 ∈ W2EE ⇐⇒ ∃γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2] s.t. v2 = (1 − δ)u2 (EE) + δγ2 = (1 − δ)2 + δγ2 . Hence, W2EE = [3 − 3δ, 2]. 12. Notice that if this condition is satisﬁed, we automatically have δ > (b − 2)/b, ensuring that BEE is nonempty.

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Similarly, denote by W2SE the set of payoffs for player 2 that can be decomposed using current play of SE and a continuation payoff γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2]: v2 ∈ W2SE ⇐⇒ ∃γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2] s.t. v2 = (1 − δ)u2 (SE) + δγ2 = (1 − δ)(−1) + δγ2 . This yields W2SE = [0, 3δ − 1]. Collecting these results, we have W2EE = [3 − 3δ, 2]

(2.5.3)

W2SE = [0, 3δ − 1].

(2.5.4)

and

We now consider several possible values of the discount factor. First, suppose δ < 1/3. Then it is immediate from (2.5.3)–(2.5.4) that W2EE and W2SE are both empty. Hence, there are no continuation payoffs available that can induce player 2 to exert effort in the current period, regardless of player 1’s behavior. Applying an analogous argument to player 1, the only possible equilibrium payoff for this case (δ < 1/3) is (0, 0), obtained by perpetual shirking. Suppose instead that δ ≥ 2/3. Then (2.5.3)–(2.5.4) imply that W2EE ∪ W2SE = [0, 2]. In this case, proposition 2.5.1 implies that every payoff on the segment {(v1 , v2 ): v1 = 83 − v32 , v2 ∈ [0, 2]} (including irrational values) can be supported as an equilibrium payoff in the ﬁrst period. This case is illustrated in ﬁgure 2.5.3. The line SE is given by the equation γ2 = (1 − δ)/δ + v2 /δ for v2 ∈ W2SE . The line EE is given by the equation γ2 = −2(1 − δ)/δ + v2 /δ for v2 ∈ W2EE . For any payoff in [0, 2], either v2 ∈ W2EE or W2SE . If v2 ∈ W2EE , then the payoff v2 can be achieved by coupling

γ2 2

SE EE

1− δ

δ

SE

EE

2

0

2

3 − 3δ

3δ − 1

2

υ2

Figure 2.5.3 The case where W2EE ∪ W2SE = [0, 2]; this is drawn for

δ = 3/4. The equation for the line labeled SE is γ2 = (1 − δ)/δ + v2 /δ, and for the line EE is γ2 = −2(1 − δ)/δ + v2 /δ.

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γ2 2

SE EE 1 4 2

0 5

1− δ

3

δ

3 − 3δ

υˆ2

3δ − 1

2

υ2

Figure 2.5.4 An illustration of the recursion (2.5.5) and (2.5.6) for an equilibrium with player 2 payoff vˆ2 , for δ = 3/4. The outcome path is (SE, (SE, EE, EE, SE, EE)∞ ), with the path after the initial period corresponding to the labeled cycle 12345.

current play of EE with a continuation payoff γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2] (yielding a point (v2 , γ2 ) on the line labeled EE). If v2 ∈ W2SE , then v2 can be achieved by coupling current play of SE with a continuation payoff γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2] (yielding a point (v2 , γ2 ) on the line SE) . To construct an equilibrium with payoff to player 2 of v2 ∈ [0, 1], we proceed recursively as follows: Set γ20 = v2 . Then,13 γ2t+1

=

−2(1 − δ)/δ + γ2t /δ, if γ2t ∈ W2EE , (1 − δ)/δ + γ2t /δ,

if γ2t ∈ [0, 3 − 3δ).

(2.5.5)

An outcome path yielding payoff v2 to player 2 is then given by a = t

EE,

if γ2t ∈ W2EE ,

SE,

if γ2t ∈ [0, 3 − 3δ).

(2.5.6)

This recursion is illustrated in ﬁgure 2.5.4. 2.5.5 Example: Failure of Monotonicity The analysis of the previous subsection suggests that the set of pure-strategy equilibrium payoffs is a monotonic function of the discount factor. When δ is less than 1/3, the set of equilibrium payoffs is a singleton, containing only (0, 0). At δ = 1/3, we add the payoff (8/3, 0) (from the equilibrium outcome path (SE, EE ∞ )). For δ in the interval 13. There are potentially many equilibria with player 2 payoff v2 , arising from the possibility that a continuation falls into both W2EE and W2SE . We construct the equilibrium corresponding to decomposing the continuation on W2EE whenever possible.

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[2/3, 1), we have all the payoffs in the set {(v1 , v2 ) : v1 = 83 − v32 , v2 ∈ [0, 2]}. The next lemma, however, implies that the set of pure-strategy equilibrium payoffs is not monotonic. Lemma For δ ∈ [1/3, 0.45), in every pure subgame-perfect outcome, if a player plays E

2.5.1 in period t, then the opponent must play E in period t + 1. Consequently, the equilibrium payoff to player 1 (consistent with player 2 always exerting effort) is maximized by the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ). Player 1’s maximum payoff over the set of all subgame-perfect equilibria is decreasing in δ in this range.

Proof Consider an outcome path in which a player (say, 2) is supposed to play E in

period t and the other player is supposed to play S in period t + 1. As we saw from (2.5.2), we need player 2’s period t+1 continuation value to be at least (1 − δ)/δ to support such actions as part of equilibrium behavior. However, the continuation value is given by (1 − δ)u2 (Sa2t+1 ) + δγ2t+2 ≤ (1 − δ) × 0 + δ 83 =

8δ 3,

and 8δ/3 ≥ (1 − δ)/δ requires δ > 0.45, a contradiction. Hence, if a player exerts effort, the opponent must exert effort in the next period. Player 1’s stage-game payoff is maximized by playing S while 2 plays E. Hence, player 1’s equilibrium payoff is maximized, subject to 2 always exerting effort, by either the outcome path EE ∞ or (SE, EE ∞ ). If there is to be any profitable one-shot deviation from the latter, it must be proﬁtable for player 2 to defect in the ﬁrst period or player 1 to defect in the second period. Acalculation shows that because δ ∈ [1/3, 0.45), neither deviation is proﬁtable. Hence, the latter path is an equilibrium outcome path, supported by punishments of mutual perpetual shirking. Moreover, player 1’s payoff from this equilibrium is a decreasing function of the discount factor, maximized at δ = 1/3. Finally, we need to show that, when δ ∈ [1/3, 0.45), the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) yields a higher payoff to player 1 than any other equilibrium outcome. Because δ < 0.8, the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) yields a higher player 1 payoff than (ES, SE ∞ ), and so the outcome path a that maximizes 1’s payoff must have SE in period 0, and by the ﬁrst claim in the lemma, 1 must play E in period 1. If player 2 plays E as well, then the resulting outcome path is (SE, EE ∞ ). Suppose a = (SE, EE ∞ ), so that player 2 plays S in period 1. But the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) yields a higher player 1 payoff than (SE, ES, SE ∞ ), a contradiction. ■

Lemma 2.5.1 is an instance of an important general phenomenon. For the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) and δ ∈ (1/3, 0.45), player 2’s incentive constraint holds strictly in every period. In other words, player 2’s incentive constraint is still satisﬁed when 2’s equilibrium continuation value is reduced by a small amount. This suggests that we should be able to increase player 1’s total payoff by a corresponding small amount. However, there is a discreteness in incentives: The only way to increase player 1’s total payoff is for him to play S in some future period, and, as lemma 2.5.1 reveals, for δ < 0.45, this is inconsistent with player 2 playing E in the previous period. That is, the effect on payoffs of having player 1 choose S in some future period is sufﬁciently

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Perfect Monitoring

large to violate 2’s incentive constraints. It is not possible to increase player 1’s value by a small enough amount that player 2’s incentive constraint is preserved. There remains the possibility of mixing: Could we produce a smaller increase in player 1’s value while preserving player 2’s incentives by having player 1 choose S in some future period with a probability less than 1? Such a randomization will preserve player 2’s incentives. However, it will not increase player 1’s value, because in equilibrium, player 1 must be indifferent between E and S in any period in which he is supposed to randomize. A public correlating device allows an escape from these constraints by allowing 1 to play S and E with positive probability in the same period, conditioning on the public signal, without indifference between S and E. In particular, player 1 can now be punished for not playing the action appropriate for the realization of the public signal, allowing incentives for mixing without indifference. Section 2.5.6 develops this possibility (see also the discussion just before proposition 7.3.4). We conclude this subsection with some ﬁnal comments on the structure of equilibpath that maximizes rium. The outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) is the equilibrium outcome √ 1’s payoff, when √ 2 always chooses E, for δ ∈ [1/3, 1/ 3). The critical implication of δ < 1/ 3 ≈ 0.577 is (1 − δ)/δ > 3δ − 1 (see ﬁgure 2.5.5), so that player 2’s payoff from (SE, SE, EE ∞ ) is negative, and applying (2.5.5) to any γ2 ∈ W2EE t EE SE with γ2 < 2 eventually yields a value √ γ2 ∈ W2 ∪ W2 . Figure 2.5.5 illustrates the recursion (2.5.5)–(2.5.6)√for δ = 1/ 3. Finally, for δ ∈ [1/ 3, 2/3), although W2SE is disjoint from W2EE (and so [0, 2] is not self-generating), there are nontrivial self-generating sets and so subgame-perfect equilibria. The smallest value of δ with efﬁcient equilibrium√outcome paths in which 2 always chooses E and 1 chooses S more than once is δ = 1/ 3. Figure 2.5.5 illustrates this for the critical value of δ. The value v < 3δ − 1 in the ﬁgure is the value of the

γ2 2

SE

EE

1− δ

δ SE

EE

2

v′′

2

v′

3δ − 1

3 − 3δ

2

υ2

Figure 2.5.5 An illustration of the recursion for an equilibrium with player 2 √ payoff v , for δ = 1/ 3. The outcome path of this equilibrium is (SE, EE, EE, EE, SE, EE ∞ ). Any strictly positive player 2 payoff strictly less than v is not an equilibrium payoff.

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Generating Equilibria

outcome path (SE, EE 3 , SE, EE ∞ ). For this value of δ, there are a countable number of efﬁcient equilibrium payoffs, associated with outcome paths (SE x , EE t , SE, EE ∞ ), where x ∈ {0, 1} and t is a nonnegative integer. 2.5.6 Example: Public Correlation In this section, we illustrate the impact of allowing players to use a public correlating device. In particular, we will show that for the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 2.5.1, the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs (with public correlation) is increasing in δ. We consider the case in which c < b − 2 (retaining, of course, the assumption b − c < 4). This moves us away from the c = b − 2 case of ﬁgure 2.4.1, on which we comment shortly. With public correlation, it sufﬁces for E p (δ) = F ∗ that each of the four sets in ﬁgure 2.5.2 be nonempty, and their union contains the extreme points {(0, 0), (v, ¯ 0), (0, v), ¯ (2, 2)} of F ∗ . We have noted that (2, 2) ∈ BEE when δ ≥ (b − 2)/b. From ﬁgure 2.5.2, it is clear that (0, v) ¯ ∈ BES when δ ≥ c/(c + 2). Hence, p ∗ E (δ) = F when b−2 c δ ≥ max b−2 b , c+2 = b . (The equality is implied by our assumption that c < b − 2.) In this case, public correlation allows the players to achieve any payoff in F ∗ (recall remark 2.5.1): First observe that each extreme point can be decomposed using one of the action proﬁles EE, ES, SE, or SS and continuations in F ∗ . Any payoff v ∈ F ∗ can be written as ¯ 0) + α3 (0, v) ¯ + α4 (2, 2), where α is a correlated action proﬁle. v = α1 (0, 0) + α2 (v, The payoff v is decomposed by α and continuations in F ∗ , where the continuations depend on the realized action proﬁle under α. We now turn to values of δ < (b − 2)/b. Because BEE is empty, EE cannot be enforced on F ∗ , even using public correlation. Hence, only the action proﬁles SS, SE, and ES can be taken in equilibrium. Recalling remark 2.5.1 again, the set E p is the largest convex set W satisfying W = co(BSS (W ) ∪ BES (W ) ∪ BSE (W )).

(2.5.7)

Because every payoff in E p is decomposed by an action proﬁle ES, SE, or SS and a payoff in E p , it is the discounted average value of the ﬂow payoffs from ES, SE, and SS. Consequently, E p must be a subset of the convex hull of (−c, b), (b, −c), and 2 and the convex (0, 0) (the triangle in ﬁgure 2.5.6). Let W denote the intersection of R+ hull of (−c, b), (b, −c), and (0, 0), that is, W = {(v : vi ≥ 0, v1 + v2 ≤ b − c}. The set W satisﬁes (2.5.7) if and only if the extreme points of W can be decomposed on W . Because (0, 0) can be trivially decomposed, symmetry allows us to focus on the decomposition of (0, b − c). Decomposing this point requires continuations γ ∈ W to satisfy (0, b − c) = (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δγ

(2.5.8)

and player 1’s incentive constraint, γ1 ≥

c(1 − δ) . δ

(2.5.9)

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( −c , b )

BES

( 0, b − c )

(2,2)

(1 − δ )(−c, b)

BSS

BSE

(0,0) (b, −c) Figure 2.5.6 The sets Ba = Ba (W ) for a ∈ {ES, SE, SS} and 2 ∩ co({(−c, b), (b, −c), (0, 0)}), where c < b − 2 W = R+ and δ < (b − 2)/b.

Equation (2.5.8) implies γ1 = c(1 − δ)/δ, that is, (2.5.9) holds. The requirement that γ ∈ W is then equivalent to 0 ≤ γ2 ≤ b − c − γ1 c(1 − δ) =b−c− δ δb − c , = δ that is, δb ≥ c. Finally, suppose δb < c, so that W does not satisfy (2.5.7). We now argue that the only set that can is {(0, 0)}, and so always SS is the only equilibrium. We derive a contradiction from the assumption that v = (0, 0) can be decomposed by ES. Because v = (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δγ , γ1 = [v1 + (1 − δ)c]/δ ≥ (1 − δ)c/δ, and so γ2 ≤ (b − c) − γ1 ≤ (δb − c)/δ. But δb < c implies γ2 < 0, which is impossible. This completes the characterization of the prisoners’ dilemma for this case. The set of equilibrium payoffs is: ∗ if δ ≥ b−2 , F , cb b−2 p 2 E = R+ ∩ co({(−c, b), (b, −c), (0, 0)}), if δ ∈ b , b , {(0, 0)}, otherwise. The critical value of δ, (b − 2)/b, is less than (b + c)/(b + c + 2), the critical value for a folk theorem without public correlation. The set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs is monotonic, in the sense that the set of equilibrium payoffs at least weakly expands as the discount factor increases. However, the relationship is neither strictly monotonic nor smooth. Instead, we take two discontinuous jumps in the set of payoffs that can be supported, one (at δ = c/b) from the trivial equilibrium to a subset of the set of feasible, weakly individually rational payoffs, and one (at δ = (b − 2)/b) to the set of all feasible and weakly individually rational payoffs. Stahl (1991) shows that the monotonicity property is

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Constructing Equilibria

preserved for other speciﬁcations of the parameters b and c consistent with the game being a prisoners’ dilemma, though the details of the solutions differ. For example, when c = b − 2, as in ﬁgure 2.4.1, there is a single jump from the trivial equilibrium to being able to support the entire set of feasible, weakly individually rational payoffs.

2.6

Constructing Equilibria: Simple Strategies and Penal Codes

As in the previous section, we restrict attention to pure strategies (the analysis can be extended to mixed strategies at a signiﬁcant cost of increased notation). By corollary 2.5.1, any action proﬁle appearing on a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium path is decomposable on the set E p of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs. By compactness of E p , there is a collection of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium proﬁles {σ 1 , . . . , σ n }, with σ i yielding the lowest possible pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff for player i. In this section, we will show that out-of-equilibrium behavior in any pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium can be decomposed on the set {U (σ 1 ), . . . , U (σ n )}. This in turn leads to a simple recipe for constructing equilibria. 2.6.1 Simple Strategies and Penal Codes We begin with the concept of a simple strategy proﬁle:14 Definition Given (n + 1) outcomes {a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)}, the associated simple strategy

2.6.1 proﬁle σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)) is given by the automaton: W = {0, 1, . . . , n} × {0, 1, 2, . . .}, w0 = (0, 0), f (j, t) = a t (j ), and τ ((j, t), a) =

(i, 0),

t (j ), if ai = ait (j ) and a−i = a−i

(j, t + 1), otherwise.

A simple strategy consists of a prescribed outcome a(0) and a “punishment” outcome a(i) for each player i. Under the proﬁle, play continues according to the outcome a(0). Players respond to any deviation by player i with a switch to the player i punishment outcome path a(i). If player i deviates from the path a(i), then a(i) starts again from the beginning. If some other player j deviates, then a switch is made to the player j punishment outcome a(j ). A critical feature of simple strategy proﬁles is that the punishment for a deviation by player i is independent of when the deviation occurs and of the nature of the deviation. The proﬁles used to prove the folk theorem for perfect-monitoring repeated games (in sections 3.3 and 3.4) are simple. 14. Recall that a is an outcome path (a 0 , a 1 , . . .) with a t ∈ A an action proﬁle.

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We can use the one-shot deviation principle to identify necessary and sufﬁcient conditions for a simple strategy proﬁle to be a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Let Uit (a) = (1 − δ)

∞

δ τ −t ui (a τ )

τ =t

be the payoff to player i from the outcome path (a t , a t+1 , . . .) (note that for any strategy proﬁle σ , Ui (σ ) = Ui0 (a(σ ))). Lemma The simple strategy proﬁle σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)) is a subgame-perfect equilib-

2.6.1 rium if and only if t (j )) + δUi0 (a(i)), Uit (a(j )) ≥ max (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i ai ∈Ai

(2.6.1)

for all i = 1, . . . , n, j = 0, 1, . . . , n, and t = 0, 1, . . . Proof The right side of (2.6.1) is the payoff to player i from deviating from outcome

path a(j ) in the tth period, and the left side is the payoff from continuing with the outcome. If this condition holds, then no player will ﬁnd it proﬁtable to deviate from any of the outcomes (a(0), . . . , a(n)). Condition 2.6.1 thus sufﬁces for subgame perfection. Because a player might be called on (in a suitable out-of-equilibrium event) to play any period t of any outcome a(j ) in a simple strategy proﬁle, condition (2.6.1) is also necessary for subgame perfection. ■

Remark Nash reversion and trigger strategies A particularly simple simple strategy pro-

2.6.1 ﬁle has, for all i = 1, . . . , n, a(i) being a constant sequence of the same static Nash equilibrium. Such a simple strategy proﬁle uses Nash reversion to provide incentives. We also refer to such Nash reversion proﬁles as trigger strategy proﬁles or trigger proﬁles. A trigger proﬁle is a grim trigger proﬁle if the Nash equilibrium minmaxes the deviator. If the trigger proﬁle uses the same Nash equilibrium to punish all deviators, grim trigger mutually minmaxes the players. ◆ A simple strategy proﬁle speciﬁes an equilibrium path a(0) and a penal code {a(1), . . . , a(n)} describing responses to deviations from equilibrium play. We are interested in optimal penal codes, embodying the most severe such punishments. Let vi∗ = min{Ui (σ ) : σ ∈ E p } be the smallest pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff for player i (which is well deﬁned by the compactness of E p ). Then: Definition Let {a(i) : i = 1, . . . , n} be n outcome paths satisfying

2.6.2 Ui0 (a(i)) = vi∗ , i = 1, . . . , n.

(2.6.2)

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The collection of n simple strategy proﬁles {σ (i) : i = 1, . . . , n}, σ (i) = σ (a(i), a(1), . . . , a(n)), is an optimal penal code if σ (i) ∈ E p ,

i = 1, . . . , n.

Do optimal penal codes exist? Compactness of E p yields the subgame-perfect outcome paths a(i) satisfying (2.6.2). The remaining question is whether the associated simple strategy proﬁles constitute equilibria. The ﬁrst statement of the following proposition shows that optimal penal codes exist. The second, reproducing the key result of Abreu (1988, theorem 5), is the punchline of the characterization of subgame-perfect equilibria: Simple strategies sufﬁce to achieve any feasible subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. Proposition 1. Let {a(i)}ni=1 be n outcome paths of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilib-

2.6.1

ria {σˆ (i)}ni=1 satisfying Ui (σˆ (i)) = vi∗ , i = 1, . . . , n. The simple strategy proﬁle σ (i) = σ (a(i), a(1), . . . , a(n)) is a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium, for i = 1, . . . , n, and hence {σ (i)}ni=1 is an optimal penal code. 2. The pure outcome path a(0) can be supported as an outcome of a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if there exist pure outcome paths {a(1), . . . , a(n)} such that the simple strategy proﬁle σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)) is a subgame-perfect equilibrium.

Hence, anything that can be accomplished with a subgame-perfect equilibrium in terms of payoffs can be accomplished with simple strategies. As a result, we need never consider complex hierarchies of punishments when constructing subgame-perfect equilibria, nor do we need to tailor punishments to the deviations that prompted them (beyond the identity of the deviator). It sufﬁces to associate one punishment with each player, to be applied whenever needed. Proof The “if” direction of statement 2 is immediate.

To prove statement 1 and the “only if” direction of statement 2, let a(0) be the outcome of a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Let (a(1), . . . , a(n)) be outcomes of subgame-perfect equilibria (σˆ (1), . . . , σˆ (n)), with Ui (σˆ i ) = vi∗ . Now consider the simple strategy proﬁle given by σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)). We claim that this strategy proﬁle constitutes a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Considering arbitrary a(0), this argument establishes statement 2. For a(0) ∈ {a(1), . . . , a(n)}, it establishes statement 1. From lemma 2.6.1, it sufﬁces to ﬁx a player i, an index j ∈ {0, 1, . . . , n}, a time t, and action ai ∈ Ai , and show t Uit (a(j )) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i (j )) + δUi0 (a(i)).

(2.6.3)

Now, by construction, a(j ) is the outcome of a subgame-perfect equilibrium— the outcome a(0) is by assumption produced by a subgame-perfect equilibrium, whereas each of a(1), . . . , a(n) is part of an optimal penal code. This ensures that for any t and ai ∈ Ai ,

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Uit (a(j )) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i (j )) + δUid (a(j ), t, ai ),

(2.6.4)

where Uid (a(j ), t, ai ) is the continuation payoff received by player i in equilibrium σ (j ) after the deviation to ai in period t. Because σ (j ) is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, the payoff Uid (a(j ), t, ai ) must itself be a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. Hence, Uid (a(j ), t, ai ) ≥ Ui0 (a(i)) = vi∗ , which with (2.6.4), implies (2.6.3), giving the result. ■

It is an immediate corollary that not only can we restrict attention to simple strategies but we can also take the penal codes involved in these strategies to be optimal. Corollary Suppose a(0) is the outcome path of some subgame-perfect equilibrium. Then

2.6.1 the simple strategy σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)), where each a(i) yields the lowest possible subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff vi∗ to player i, is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. 2.6.2 Example: Oligopoly We now present an example, based on Abreu (1986), of how simple strategies can be used in the characterization of equilibria. We do this in the context of a highly parameterized oligopoly problem, using the special structure of the latter to simplify calculations. There are n ﬁrms, indexed by i. In the stage game, each ﬁrm i chooses a quantity ai ∈ R+ (notice that in this example, action spaces are not compact). Given outputs, market price is given by 1 − ni=1 ai , when this number is nonnegative, and 0 otherwise. Each ﬁrm has a constant marginal and average cost of c < 1. The payoff of ﬁrm i from outputs a1 , . . . , an is then given by

n ui (a1 , . . . , an ) = ai max 1 − aj , 0 − c . j =1

The stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium, denoted by a1N , . . . , anN , where aiN =

1−c , n+1

i = 1, . . . , n.

Firm payoffs in this Nash equilibrium are given by, for i = 1, . . . , n, ui (a1N , . . . , anN ) =

1−c n+1

2 .

In contrast, the symmetric allocation that maximizes joint proﬁts, denoted by a1m , . . . , anm , is 1−c . aim = 2n

2.6

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Constructing Equilibria

55

Firm payoffs at this allocation are given by, for i = 1, . . . , n, 1 1−c 2 m m . ui (a1 , . . . , an ) = n 2 As usual, this stage game is inﬁnitely repeated with each ﬁrm characterized by the discount factor δ ∈ (0, 1). We restrict attention to strongly symmetric equilibria of the repeated game, that is, equilibria in which, after each history, the same quantity is chosen by every ﬁrm. We can use the restriction to strongly symmetric equilibria to economize on notation. Let q ∈ R+ denote a quantity of output and µ : R+ → R be deﬁned by µ(q) = q(max{1 − nq, 0} − c).

(2.6.5)

Hence, µ(q) is the stage-game payoff obtained by each of the n ﬁrms when they each produce output level q ∈ R+ . The function µ is essentially the function u, conﬁned to the equal-output diagonal. The shift from u(a) to µ(q) allows us to distinguish the n from the (commonly chosen) output (potentially asymmetric) action proﬁle a ∈ R+ level q ∈ R+ . In keeping with the elimination of subscripts, we let a N ∈ R+ and a m ∈ R+ denote the output chosen by each ﬁrm in the stage-game Nash equilibrium and symmetric joint-proﬁt maximizing proﬁle, respectively. Let µd (q) be the payoff to a single ﬁrm when every other ﬁrm produces output q and the ﬁrm in question maximizes its stage-game payoff. Hence (exploiting the symmetry to focus on 1’s payoff), µd (q) = max u1 (a1 , q, . . . , q) a1 ∈[0,1] 1 (1 − (n − 1)q − c)2 , if 1 − (n − 1)q − c ≥ 0 = 4 0, otherwise.

(2.6.6)

These functions exhibit the convenient structure of the oligopoly problem. The function (2.6.5) is concave, whereas (2.6.6) is convex in the relevant range, with the two being equal at the output corresponding to the unique Nash equilibrium. Figure 2.6.1 illustrates these functions. Notice that as q becomes arbitrarily large, the payoff µ(q) becomes arbitrarily small, as ﬁrms incur ever larger costs to produce so much output that they must give it away. This is an important feature of the example. The ability to impose arbitrarily large losses in a single period ensures that we can work with single-period punishments. If we had assumed an upper bound on quantities, punishments may require several periods. When turning to the folk theorem for more general games in the next chapter, the inability to impose large losses forces us to work with multiperiod punishments. As is typically the case, our characterization of the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs begins with the lowest such payoff. A symmetric subgame-perfect equilibrium is an optimal punishment if it achieves the minimum payoff, for each player, possible under a (strongly symmetric) subgame-perfect equilibrium. We cannot assume the set of subgame-perfect equilibria is compact, because the action spaces are unbounded. Instead, we let v ∗ denote the inﬁmum of the common payoff received in any subgame-perfect equilibrium and prove that the inﬁmum can be achieved.

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µ d (q) µ (q )

am

aN

q0

q

Figure 2.6.1 Illustration of the functions µ(q) = q(1 − nq − c), identifying

the payoff of each ﬁrm when each chooses an output of q, and µd (q) = (1 − (n − 1)q − c)2 /4, identifying the largest proﬁt available to one ﬁrm, given that the n − 1 other ﬁrms produce output q.

To construct a simple equilibrium giving payoff v ∗ , we begin with the largest payoff that can be achieved in a (strongly symmetric) subgame-perfect equilibrium. Let q¯ be the most collusive output level that can be enforced by v ∗ , that is,15 q¯ = arg max µ(q) = arg 1−cmax q(1 − nq − c) m N 1−c q∈[a ,a ]

q∈

2n

, n+1

subject to the constraint µ(q) ≥ (1 − δ)µd (q) + δv ∗ .

(2.6.7)

The left side of the constraint is the payoff achieved from playing q¯ in every period, and the right side is the payoff received from an optimal deviation from q, ¯ followed by a switch to the continuation payoff v ∗ . Note that q¯ ≥ a m . Because a m is the joint-proﬁt maximizing quantity, if q = a m satisﬁes (2.6.7), then the most collusive equilibrium output is q¯ = a m . If (2.6.7) is not satisﬁed at q = a m , then (noting that µ(q) is decreasing in q > a m and (2.6.7) holds strictly for q = a N ), the most collusive equilibrium output is the smallest q¯ < a N satisfying µ(q) ¯ = (1 − δ)µd (q) ¯ + δv ∗ . We now ﬁnd a particularly simple optimal punishment. For any two quantities of output (q, ¯ q), ˜ deﬁne a carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ to be strategies in which all ﬁrms play q˜ in the ﬁrst period and thereafter play q, ¯ with any deviation from these 15. We drop the nonnegativity constraint on prices in the following calculations because it is not binding. It is also clear from ﬁgure 2.6.1 that we lose nothing in excluding outputs in the interval [0, a m ) from consideration. In particular, any payoff achieved by outputs in the interval [0, a m ) can also be achieved by outputs larger than a m , with the payoff from deviating from the former output being larger than from the latter. Any equilibrium featuring the former output thus remains an equilibrium when the latter is substituted. This restriction in turn implies that µ(q) and µd (q) are both decreasing functions, a property we use repeatedly.

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Constructing Equilibria

strategies causing this prescription to be repeated. Intuitively, q˜ is the “stick” and q¯ the “carrot.” The punishment speciﬁes a single-period penalty followed by repeated play of the carrot. Deviations from the punishment simply cause it to begin again. The basic result is that carrot-and-stick punishments are optimal. Note in particular that (2.6.8) implies q˜ > a N . ¯ q) ˜ is Proposition 1. There exists an output q˜ such that the carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q, 2.6.2

an optimal punishment. 2. The optimal carrot-and-stick punishment satisﬁes ˜ = (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ = v∗, µd (q)

(2.6.8)

µ (q) ¯ = µ(q) ¯ + δ(µ(q) ¯ − µ(q)) ˜ if q¯ > a ,

(2.6.9)

¯ ≤ µ(q) ¯ + δ(µ(q) ¯ − µ(q)) ˜ if q¯ = a m . µd (q)

(2.6.10)

d

m

and

3. Let v be a symmetric subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff with µ(q) = v. Then v is the outcome of a subgame-perfect equilibrium consisting of simple strategies {a0 , σ (q, ¯ q), ˜ . . . , σ (q, ¯ q)}, ˜ where a0 plays q in every period. Because σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ is an optimal punishment and q¯ is the most collusive output, the best (strongly symmetric) subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff is given by an equilibrium that plays q¯ in every period, with any deviation prompting a switch to the optimal punishment σ (q, ¯ q). ˜ Any other symmetric equilibrium payoff can be achieved by playing an appropriate quantity q in every period, enforced by the optimal punishment σ (q, ¯ q). ˜ The implication of this result is that solving (the symmetric version of) this oligopoly problem is quite simple. If we are concerned with either the best or the worst subgame-perfect equilibrium, we need consider only two output levels, the carrot q¯ and the stick q. ˜ Having found these two, every other subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff can be attained through consideration of only three outputs, one characterizing the equilibrium path and the other two involved in the optimal punishment. In addition, calculating q¯ and q˜ is straightforward. We can ﬁrst take q¯ = a m , checking whether the most collusive output can be supported in a subgame-perfect equilibrium. To complete this check, we ﬁnd the value of q˜ satisfying (2.6.8), given q¯ = a m . At this point, we can conclude that the most collusive output a m can indeed be supported ˜ if and in a subgame-perfect equilibrium and that we have identiﬁed q¯ = a m and q, m only if the inequality (2.6.10) is also satisﬁed. If it is not, then the output a cannot be supported in equilibrium, and we solve the equalities (2.6.8)–(2.6.9) for q¯ and q. ˜ Proof Statement 1. Given v ∗ , the inﬁmum of symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium

payoffs, and hence q, ¯ choose q˜ so that (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ = v∗. We now argue that the carrot-and-stick punishment deﬁned by σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. By construction, this punishment has value v ∗ . Because deviations from q¯ would (also by construction) be unproﬁtable when

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punished by v ∗ , they are unproﬁtable when punished by σ (q, ¯ q). ˜ We need only argue that deviations from q˜ are unproﬁtable, or (1 − δ)µd (q) ˜ + δv ∗ ≤ (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ = v∗. Suppose this inequality fails. Then, because v ∗ is the inﬁmum of strongly symmetric subgame-perfect payoffs, there exists a strongly symmetric equilibrium σ ∗ such that ˜ + δv ∗ > (1 − δ)µ(q ∗ ) + U (σ ∗ |q ∗ ), (1 − δ)µd (q) where q ∗ is the ﬁrst-period output under σ ∗ and U (σ ∗ |q ∗ ) is the continuation value (from symmetry, to any ﬁrm) under σ ∗ after q ∗ has been chosen by all ﬁrms. Because σ ∗ is an equilibrium, (1 − δ)µd (q) ˜ + δv ∗ > (1 − δ)µd (q ∗ ) + δv ∗ . Because µd (q) is decreasing in q, it thus sufﬁces for the contradiction to show ¯ because the latter is q˜ ≥ q ∗ . But σ ∗ can never prescribe an output lower than q, the most collusive output supported by the (most severe) punishment v ∗ . Hence, the carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ features higher payoffs than σ ∗ in every ∗ period beyond the ﬁrst. Because v , the value of the carrot-and-stick punishment, is no larger than the value of σ ∗ , it must be that the carrot-and-stick punishment ¯ q) ˜ generates a lower ﬁrst-period payoff, and hence q˜ ≥ q ∗ . This ensures that σ (q, is an optimal punishment. Statement 2. Suppose σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ is an optimal carrot-and-stick punishment. The

requirement that ﬁrms not deviate from the stick output q˜ is given by (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ ≥ (1 − δ)µd (q) ˜ + δ(1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δ 2 µ(q). ¯ Similarly, the requirement that agents not deviate from the carrot output q¯ is µ(q) ¯ ≥ (1 − δ)µd (q) ¯ + (1 − δ)δµ(q) ˜ + δ 2 µ(q). ¯ Rearranging these two inequalities gives µd (q) ˜ ≤ (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ = v∗

(2.6.11)

µd (q) ¯ ≤ µ(q) ¯ + δ(µ(q) ¯ − µ(q)), ˜

(2.6.12)

and

where the right side of (2.6.11) is the value of the punishment. If (2.6.11) holds strictly, we can increase q˜ and hence reduce µ(q), ˜ 16 while preserving (2.6.12), because µ(q) ˜ appears only on the right side of the latter (i.e., a more severe punishment cannot make deviations from the equilibrium path more attractive). This yields a lower punishment value, a contradiction. Hence, under an optimal carrot-and-stick punishment, (2.6.11) must hold with equality, which is (2.6.8). It remains only to argue that if q¯ > a m , then (2.6.12) holds with equality (which is (2.6.9)). Suppose not. Although unilateral adjustments in either q¯ or q˜ 16. Recall that we can restrict attention to q ≥ a m .

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will violate (2.6.8), we can increase q˜ while simultaneously reducing q¯ to preserve (2.6.8). From (2.6.8), the punishment value must fall (because µd is decreasing in q). Moreover, a small increase in q˜ in this manner will not violate (2.6.12), so we have identiﬁed a carrot-and-stick punishment with a lower value, a contradiction. Statement 3. This follows immediately from the optimality of the carrot-and-stick

punishment and proposition 2.6.1. ■

Has anything been lost by our restriction to strongly symmetric equilibria? There are two possibilities. One is that, on calculating the optimal carrot-and-stick punishment, we ﬁnd that its value is 0. The minmax values of the players are 0, implying that a 0 punishment is the most severe possible. A carrot-and-stick punishment whose value is 0 is thus the most severe possible, and nothing is lost by restricting attention to strongly symmetric punishments. However, if the optimal carrot-and-stick punishment has a positive expected value, then there are more severe, asymmetric punishments available.17 When will optimal symmetric carrot-and-stick punishments be optimal overall, that is, have a value of 0? Because 0 is the minmax value for the players, the subgameperfect equilibrium given by the carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ can have a value of 0 only if µd (q) ˜ = 0, that is, only if 0 is the largest payoff one can obtain by deviating from the stick phase ˜ > 0 with a punishment value of 0, a current deviation of the equilibrium. (If µd (q) followed by perpetual payoffs of 0 is proﬁtable, a contradiction.) Hence, the stick must involve sufﬁciently large production that the best response for any single ﬁrm is simply to shut down and produce nothing. ˜ = 0 requires that q˜ be sufﬁciently large, and hence µ(q) ˜ The condition µd (q) sufﬁciently negative (indeed, as δ → 1, q˜ → ∞). To preserve the 0 equilibrium value, this negative initial payoff must be balanced by subsequent positive payoffs. For this to be possible, the discount factor must be sufﬁciently large. Let (q(δ), ¯ q(δ)) ˜ be the ∗ optimal carrot-and-stick punishment quantities given discount factor δ, and v (δ) the corresponding punishment value. Then: ¯ and v ∗ (δ) are decreasing and q(δ) Lemma 1. The functions q(δ) ˜ is increasing in δ.

2.6.2 2. There exists δ < 1, such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), the optimal strongly symmetric carrot-and-stick punishment gives a value of 0 and hence is optimal overall.

Proof Suppose ﬁrst that q(δ) ¯ = a m . Then the output q(δ) ˜ and value v ∗ (δ) satisfy (from

(2.6.8)) ˜ − µ(q(δ)) ˜ = δ µ(a m ) − µ(q(δ)) ˜ µd (q(δ))

(2.6.13)

µd (q(δ)) ˜ = v ∗ (δ),

(2.6.14)

and

17. Abreu (1986) shows that if the optimal carrot-and-stick punishment gives a positive payoff, then it is the only strongly symmetric equilibrium yielding this payoff. If it yields a 0 payoff, there may be other symmetric equilibria yielding the same payoff.

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while subgame perfection requires the incentive constraint ˜ µd (a m ) ≤ µ(a m ) + δ(µ(a m ) − µ(q(δ)). The function h(q) = µd (q) − (1 − δ)µ(q) is convex and differentiable everywhere. From (2.6.13), q(δ) ˜ N h(a ) + h (q)dq = δµ(a m ), aN

and because q(δ) ˜ > a N , h(a N ) = δµ(a N ) implies h (q(δ)) ˜ > 0. It then follows that an increase in δ increases q˜ (to preserve (2.6.13)), thus decreasing v ∗ (from (2.6.14)) and preserving the incentive constraint. In addition, it is immediate that there exists δ < 1 such that q(δ) ¯ = a m .18 As a result, we have established that there ∗ ¯ = a m if and only if δ ≥ δ ∗ , and that the comparative exists δ < 1 such that q(δ) statics in lemma 2.6.2(1) hold on [δ ∗ , 1). Now consider δ < δ ∗ . Here, the carrot-and-stick punishment is characterized by ˜ − µ(q(δ)) ˜ = δ µ(q(δ)) ¯ − µ(q(δ)) ˜ (2.6.15) µd (q(δ)) and ¯ − µ(q(δ)) ¯ = δ µ(q(δ)) ¯ − µ(q(δ)) ˜ , µd (q(δ))

(2.6.16)

with the value of the punishment again given by v ∗ (δ) = µd (q(δ)). ˜ This implies that the outputs q¯ < a N < q˜ must be such that the payoff increment from deviating from the carrot must equal that of deviating from the stick. Now ﬁx δ and its corresponding optimal punishment quantities q(δ), ¯ q(δ) ˜ and payoff v ∗ (δ), and consider δ > δ (but δ < δ ∗ ). We then have ˜ < (1 − δ )µ(q(δ)) ˜ + δ µ(q(δ)). ¯ µd (q(δ)) Because dµd (q)/dq > dµ(q)/dq for q > a N (because the ﬁrst function is convex and the second concave, and the two are tangent at a N ), there exists a value ˜ > a N at which q > q(δ) ¯ µd (q ) = (1 − δ )µ(q ) + δ µ(q(δ)). The carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q(δ), ¯ q ) is thus a subgame-perfect equilibd ∗ rium giving value v = µ (q ) < v (δ), ensuring that v ∗ (δ ) < v ∗ (δ). This in turn ¯ which, from (2.6.15)–(2.6.16), gives q(δ ˜ ) > q(δ). ˜ This ensures that q(δ ¯ ) < q(δ), completes the proof of statement 1. ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ to equal 0, we need µ(q) ˜ < 0 and (as disFor v ∗ = (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ = 0. For sufﬁciently large cussed just before the statement of the lemma) µd (q) ¯ = a m and (because q(δ) ˜ > a N ) δµ(a m ) − µd (q(δ)) ˜ > δµ(a m ) − δ ≥ δ ∗ , q(δ) ˜ → −∞ as δ → 1 and so eventually q(δ) ˜ > µ(a N ) > 0. From (2.6.13), µ(q(δ)) (1 − c)/(n − 1). ■

18. For δ sufﬁciently close to 1, permanent reversion to the stage-game Nash equilibrium sufﬁces to support a m as a subgame-perfect equilibrium outcome, and hence so must the optimal punishment.

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Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

We now consider games in which some of the players are short-lived. There are n long-lived players, numbered 1, . . . , n, and N − n short-lived players numbered n + 1, . . . , N.19 As usual, Ai is the set of player i’s pure stage-game actions, and A ≡ N i=1 Ai the set of pure stage-game action proﬁles. A long-lived player i plays the game in every period and maximizes, as before, the average discounted payoff of the payoff sequence (u0i , u1i , u2i , . . .), given by (1 − δ)

∞

δ t ui (a t ).

t=0

Short-lived players are concerned only with their payoffs in the current period and hence are often referred to as myopic. One interpretation is that in each period, a new collection of short-lived players n + 1, . . . , N enters the game, is active for only that period, and then leaves the game. An example of such a scenario is one in which the long-lived players are ﬁrms and the short-lived players customers. Another example has a single long-lived player, representing a government agency or court, with the short-lived players being a succession of clients or disputants who appear before it. A common interpretation of the product-choice game is that player 2 is a sequence of customers, with a new customer in each period. An alternative interpretation is that each so-called short-lived player represents a continuum of long-lived agents, such as a long-lived ﬁrm facing a competitive market in each period, or a government facing a large electorate in each period. Under this interpretation, members of the continuum are sometimes referred to as small players and the long-lived players as large. Each player’s payoff depends on his own action, the actions of the large players, and the average of the small players’ actions.20 All players maximize the average discounted sum of payoffs. In addition to the plays of the long-lived players, histories of play are assumed to include only the distribution of play produced by the small players. Because each small player is a negligible part of the continuum, a change in the behavior of a member of the continuum does not affect the distribution of play, and so does not inﬂuence future behavior of any (small or large) player. For this reason, players whose individual behavior is unobserved are also called anonymous. As there is no link between current play of a small anonymous player and her future treatment, such a player can do no better than myopically optimize. Remark The anonymity assumption The assumption that small players are anonymous is

2.7.1 critical for the conclusion that small players necessarily myopically optimize. Consider the repeated prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 2.4.1, with player 1 being a large 19. The literature also uses the terms long-run for long-lived, and short-run for short-lived. 20. Under this interpretation of the model described above, if N = n + 1, a small player’s payoff depends only on her own action (in addition to the long-lived players’ actions), not the average of the other small players’ actions. Allowing the payoffs of each small player to also depend on the average of the other players’ actions in this case does not introduce any new issues. We follow the literature in assuming that small players make choices so that the distribution over actions is well deﬁned (i.e., the set of small players choosing any action is assumed measurable). Because we will be concerned with equilibria and with deviations from equilibria on the part of a single player, this will not pose a constraint.

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player and player 2 a continuum of small players. Each of the small players receives the payoff given by the prisoners’ dilemma, given her action and player 1’s action. Player 1’s payoff depends only on the aggregate play of the player 2’s, which is equivalent to the payoff received against a single opponent playing a mixed strategy with probability of E given by the proportion of player 2’s choosing E. If, as described, the distribution of player 2’s actions is public (but individual player 2 actions are private), then all player 2’s myopically optimize, playing S in every period, and so the equilibrium is unique, and in this equilibrium, all players choose S in every period. On the other hand, if all players observe the precise details of every player 2’s choice, then if δ ≥ 1/3, an equilibrium exists in which effort is exerted after every history devoid of shirking, with any instance of shirking triggering a punishment phase of persistent shirking thereafter. It thus takes more than a continuum of players to ensure that the players are anonymous and behavior is myopic. Consider now the same game but with a ﬁnite number of player 2s. Perfect monitoring requires that each player 2’s action be publicly observed and so, for any ﬁnite number of player 2s and δ ≥ 1/3, always exerting effort is an equilibrium outcome. Consequently, there is a potentially troubling discontinuity as we increase the number of player 2s. Suppose δ ≥ 1/3. For a ﬁnite number (no matter how large) of player 2s, always exerting effort is an equilibrium outcome, whereas for a continuum of anonymous player 2s, it is not. Section 7.8 discusses one resolution: If actions are only imperfectly observed, then the behavior of a large but ﬁnite population of player 2s is similar to that of a continuum of anonymous player 2s. ◆ We present the formal development for short-lived players. Restricting attention to pure strategies for the short-lived players, the model can be reinterpreted as one with small anonymous players who play identical pure equilibrium strategies. The usual intertemporal considerations come into play in shaping the behavior of longlived players. As might be expected, the special case of a single long-lived player is often of interest and is the typical example. Again as usual, a period t history is an element of the set H t ≡ At . The set of all t 0 histories is given by H = ∪∞ t=0 H , where H = {∅}. A behavior strategy for player i, i = 1, . . . , n, is a function σi : H → (Ai ). The role of player i, for i = n + 1, . . . , N is ﬁlled by a countable sequence of players, denoted i0 , i1 , . . . A behavior strategy for player it is a function σit : H t → (Ai ). We then let σi = (σi0 , σi1 , σi2 , . . .) denote the sequence of such strategies. We will often simply refer to a short-lived player i, rather than explicitly referring to the sequence of player i’s. Note that each player it observes the history ht ∈ H t . As usual, σ |ht is the continuation strategy proﬁle after the history ht ∈ H . Given a strategy proﬁle σ , Ui (σ ) denotes the long-lived player i’s payoff in the repeated game, that is, the average discounted value of {ui (a t (σ ))}. Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a Nash equilibrium if,

2.7.1

1. for i = 1, . . . , n, σi maximizes Ui (·, σ−i ) over player i’s repeated game strategies, and

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Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

2. for i = n + 1, . . . , N, all t ≥ 0, and all ht ∈ H t that have positive probability under σ , ui (σit (ht ), σ−i (ht )) = max ui (ai , σ−i (ht )). ai ∈Ai

A strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if, for all histories ht ∈ H , σ |ht is a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. The notion of a one-shot deviation for a long-lived player is identical to that discussed in section 2.2 and applies in an obvious manner to short-lived players. Hence, we immediately have a one-shot deviation principle for games with long- and shortlived players (the proof is the same as that for proposition 2.2.1). Proposition The one-shot deviation principle A strategy proﬁle σ is subgame perfect if and

2.7.1 only if there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations. 2.7.1 Minmax Payoffs Because the short-lived players play myopic best replies, given the actions of the longlived players, the short-lived players must play a Nash equilibrium of the induced stage game. Let B : ni=1 (Ai ) ⇒ N i=n+1 (Ai ) be the correspondence that maps any mixed-action proﬁle for the long-lived players to the corresponding set of static Nash equilibria for the short-lived players. The graph of B is denoted by B ⊂ N i=1 Ai , so that B is the set of the proﬁles of mixed actions with the property that, for each player i = n + 1, . . . , N, αi is a best response to α−i . Note that under assumption 2.1.1, for all αLL ∈ ni=1 (Ai ), there exists αSL ∈ N i=n+1 (Ai ) such that (αLL , αSLL ) ∈ B. It will be useful for the notation to cover the case of no short-lived players, in which case, B = ni=1 (Ai ). (If a player has a continuum action space, then that player does not randomize; see remark 2.1.1.) For each of the long-lived players i = 1, . . . , n, deﬁne vi = min max ui (ai , α−i ), α∈B ai ∈Ai

(2.7.1)

and let αˆ i ∈ B be an action proﬁle satisfying αˆ i = arg min max ui (ai , α−i ) . α∈B

ai ∈Ai

The payoff vi , player i’s (mixed-action) minmax payoff with short-lived players, is a lower bound on the payoff that player i can obtain in an equilibrium of the repeated game.21 Notice that this payoff is calculated subject to the constraint that short-lived i minmax player i, subject to the players choose best responses: The strategies αˆ −i i ) ∈ B, that is, constraint that there exists some choice αˆ ii for player i that gives (αˆ ii , αˆ −i that makes the choices of the short-lived players a Nash equilibrium. Lower payoffs for player i might be possible if the short-lived players were not constrained to behave myopically (as when they are long-lived). In particular, reducing i’s payoffs below vi 21. Restricting the long-lived players to pure actions gives player i’s pure-action minmax payoff with short-lived players. We discuss pure-action minmaxing in detail when all players are long-lived and therefore restrict attention to mixed-action minmax when some players are short-lived.

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h

H

2, 3

0, 2

L

3, 0

1, 1

h

H

2, 3

1, 2

L

3, 0

0, 1

Figure 2.7.1 The left game is the product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1.

Player 1’s action L is a best reply to 2’s choice of in the left game, but not in the right.

requires actions on the part of the short-lived players that cannot be best responses or part of a stage-game Nash equilibrium but that long-lived players potentially could be induced to play via the use of appropriate intertemporal incentives. We use the same notation for minmax payoffs and strategies, vi and αˆ i , as for the case in which all players were long-lived, because they are the appropriate generalization in the presence of short-lived players. i . When α ˆ ii is It is noteworthy that αˆ ii need not be a best response for player i to αˆ −i i not a best response, ui (αˆ ) is strictly smaller than vi . Hence, minmaxing player i may require i to incur a cost, in the sense of not playing a best response, to ensure that αˆ i speciﬁes stage-game best responses for the short-lived players.22 If we are to punish player i through the play of αˆ i , player i will have to be subsequently compensated for any costs incurred, introducing a complication not found when all players are long-lived.23 Example Consider the product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1,where player 1 is a long-lived

2.7.1 and player 2 a short-lived player, reproduced as the left game in ﬁgure 2.7.1. Every pure or mixed action for player 2 is a myopic best reply to some player 1 action. Hence, the constraint α ∈ B on the minimization in (2.7.1) imposes no constraints on the action α2 appearing in player 1’s utility function. We have v1 = 1 and αˆ 1 = L, as would be the case with two long-lived players. In addition, L is a best response for player 1 to player 2’s play of . There is then no discrepancy here between player 1’s best response to the player 2 action that minmaxes player 1 and the player 1 action that makes such behavior a best response for player 2. It is also straightforward to verify, as a consequence, that the trigger-strategy proﬁle in which play begins with H h, and remains there until the ﬁrst deviation, after which play is perpetual L, is a subgame-perfect equilibrium for δ ≥ 1/2. Now consider a modiﬁed version of this game, displayed on the right in ﬁgure 2.7.1. Once again, every pure or mixed action for player 2 is a myopic best 22. Formally, given any α ∈ B that solves the minimization in (2.7.1), the subsequent maximization does not impose ai = αi . 23. With long-lived players, we can typically assume that player 1 plays a stage-game best response when being minmaxed, using future play to create the incentives for the other players to do the minmaxing. Here the short-lived players must ﬁnd minmaxing a stage-game best response, potentially requiring player 1 to not play a best response, being induced to do so by incentives created by future play.

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Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

h

r

H

2, 3

1, 2

0, 0

L

3, 0

0, 1

−1, 0

Figure 2.7.2 A further modiﬁcation to the product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1.

reply to some player 1 action, implying no constraints on α2 in (2.7.1). We have v1 = 1 with αˆ 1 = L and u1 (αˆ 1 ) = 0. In this case, however, αˆ 1 does not feature a best response for player 1, who would rather choose H . If player 1 is to be minmaxed, 1 will have to choose L to create the appropriate incentives for player 2, and 1 will have to be compensated for doing so. Because L is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, there is no pure-strategy equilibrium in trigger strategies. However, (H h)∞ can still be supported as a subgame-perfect equilibrium-outcome path for δ ≥ 1/2, using a carrot-and-stick approach: The proﬁle speciﬁes H h on the outcome path and after any deviation one period of L, after which play returns to H h; in particular, if player 1 does not play L when required, L is speciﬁed in the subsequent period. The set of equilibrium payoffs for this example is discussed in detail in section 7.6. Consider a further modiﬁcation, displayed in ﬁgure 2.7.2. When player 2 is long-lived, then we have v1 = 0 and αˆ 1 = H r. When player 2 is short-lived, the restriction that player 2 always choose best responses makes action r irrelevant, because it is strictly dominated by . We then again have v1 = 1 and αˆ 1 = L. ●

This example illustrates two features of repeated games with short-lived players. First, converting some players from long-lived to short-lived players imposes restrictions on the payoffs that can be achieved for the remaining long-lived players. In the game of ﬁgure 2.7.2, player 1’s minmax value increases from 0 to 1 when player 2 becomes a short-lived player. Payoffs in the interval (0, 1) are thus possible equilibrium payoffs for player 1 if player 2 is long-lived but not if player 2 is short-lived. As a result, the range of discount factors under which we can support relatively high payoffs for player 1 as equilibrium outcomes may be broader when player 2 is a long-lived rather than short-lived player. As we will see in the next section, the maximum payoff for long-lived players is typically reduced when some players are short-lived rather than long-lived. Second, the presence of short-lived players imposes restrictions on the structure of the equilibrium. To minmax player 1, player 2 must play . To make a best response for player 2, player 1 must put at least probability 1/2 on L, effectively cooperating in the minmaxing. This contrasts with the equilibria that will be constructed in the proof of the folk theorem without short-lived players (proposition 3.4.1), where a player

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being minmaxed is allowed to play her best response to the minmax strategies, and the incentives for the punishing players to do so are created by future play. 2.7.2 Constraints on Payoffs In restricting attention to action proﬁles drawn from the set B, short-lived players impose restrictions on the set of equilibrium payoffs that go beyond the speciﬁcation of minmax payoffs. Example Return to the product-choice game (left game of ﬁgure 2.7.1). Minmax payoffs are

2.7.2 1 for both players, whether player 2 is a long-lived or short-lived player. When player 2 is long-lived, because F ∗ contains (8/3, 1), it follows from proposition 3.3.1 that there are equilibria (for sufﬁciently patient players) with payoffs for player 1 arbitrarily close to 8/3.24 This is impossible, however, when player 2 is short-lived. For player 1 to obtain a payoff close to 8/3, there must be some periods in which the action proﬁle Lh appears with probability at least 2/3. But whether the result of pure independently mixed or correlated actions, this outcome cannot involve a best response for player 2. The largest equilibrium payoff for player 1, even when arbitrarily patient, is bounded away from 8/3. Consider, then, the problem of choosing α ∈ B to maximize player 1’s stagegame payoff. Player 2 is willing to play h as long as the probability that 1 plays H is at least 1/2, and so 1’s payoff is maximized by player 1 mixing equally between H and L and player 2 choosing the myopic best reply of h. The payoff obtained is often called the (mixed-action) Stackelberg payoff, because this is the payoff that player 1 can guarantee himself by publicly committing to his mixed action before player 2 moves.25 However, the mixed-action Stackelberg payoff cannot be achieved in any equilibrium. Indeed, there is no equilibrium of the repeated game in which player 1’s payoff exceeds 2, the pure action Stackelberg payoff, independently of player 1’s discount factor. To see why this is the case, let v¯1 be the largest subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff available to player 1, and assume v¯1 > 2. Any period in which player 2 chooses or player 1 chooses H cannot give player 1 a payoff in excess of 2. If player 1 chooses L, the best response for 2 is , which again gives a payoff short of 2. Informally, there must be some period in which player 2 chooses h with positive probability and player 1 mixes between H and L. Consider the ﬁrst such period, and consider the equilibrium that begins with this period. The payoff for player 1 in this equilibrium must be at least v¯1 , because all previous periods 24. Using Nash reversion as a punishment and an algorithm similar to that in section 2.5.4 to construct an outcome path that switches appropriately between H h and Lh, we can obtain precisely (8/3, 1) as an equilibrium payoff. 25. More precisely, it is the supremum of such payoffs. When player 1 mixes equally between H and L, player 2 has two best replies, only one of which maximizes 1’s payoff. However, by putting ε > 0 higher probability on H , 1 can guarantee that 2 has a unique best reply (see 15.2.2). The pure-action Stackelberg payoff is the payoff that player 1 can guarantee by committing to a public action before player 2 moves (see 15.2.1). It is the subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff of the extensive form where 1 chooses a1 ∈ A1 ﬁrst, and then 2, knowing 1’s choice, chooses a2 ∈ A2 .

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Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

(if any) must give lower payoffs. However, because player 1 is mixing, he must be indifferent between H and L, and hence the payoff to player 1 when choosing H must be at least as large as v¯1 . On the other hand, because 2 bounds the current period payoff from H and v¯1 bounds the continuation payoff by hypothesis, we have the following upper bound on the payoff from playing H , and hence an upper bound on v¯1 , v¯1 ≤ (1 − δ)2 + δ v¯1 . This inequality implies v¯1 ≤ 2, contradicting our assumption that v¯1 > 2. ●

This result generalizes. Let i be a long-lived player in an arbitrary game, and deﬁne v¯i = sup

min

α∈B ai ∈supp(αi )

ui (ai , α−i ),

(2.7.2)

where supp(αi ) denotes the support of the (possibly mixed) action αi . Hence, we associate with any proﬁle of stage-game actions, the minimum payoff that we can construct by adjusting player i’s behavior within the support of his action. Essentially, we are identifying the least favorable outcome of i’s mixture. We then choose, over the set of proﬁles in which short-lived players choose best responses, the action proﬁle that maximizes this payoff. We have: Proposition Every subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff for player i is less than or equal to v¯i .

2.7.2 Proof The proof is a reformulation of the argument for the product-choice game. Let

vi > v¯i be the largest subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff available to player i and consider an equilibrium σ giving this payoff. Let α 0 be the ﬁrst period action proﬁle. Then,

vi = (1 − δ)ui (α 0 ) + δE σ {U (σ |h1 )} ≤ (1 − δ)v¯i + δvi , where the second inequality follows from the fact that α 0 must lie in B, and player i must be indifferent between all of the pure actions in the support of αi0 if the latter is mixed. We can then rearrange this to give the contradiction, vi ≤ v¯i . ■

As example 2.7.2 demonstrates, the action proﬁle α ∗ = arg maxα∈B ui (α) may require player i to randomize to provide the appropriate incentives for the short-lived players. The upper bound v¯i can then be strictly smaller than ui (α ∗ ). In equilibrium, i must be indifferent over all actions in the support of αi∗ . The payoff from the least lucrative action in this support, given by v¯i , is thus an upper bound on i’s equilibrium payoffs in the repeated game.

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3 The Folk Theorem with Perfect Monitoring

A folk theorem asserts that every feasible and strictly individually rational payoff is the payoff of some subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game, when players are sufﬁciently patient.1 The ideas underlying the folk theorem are best understood by ﬁrst considering the simpler pure-action folk theorem for inﬁnitely repeated games of perfect monitoring: For every pure-action proﬁle whose payoff strictly dominates the pure-action minmax, provided players are sufﬁciently patient, there is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game in which that action proﬁle is played in every period. Because every feasible payoff can be achieved in a single period using a correlated action proﬁle, identical arguments show that the payoff folk theorem holds in the following form:2 Every feasible and strictly pure-action individually rational payoff is the payoff of some equilibrium with public correlation when players are sufﬁciently patient. Although simplifying the argument (and strategy proﬁles) signiﬁcantly, public correlation is not needed for a payoff folk theorem. We have already seen an example for the repeated prisoners’ dilemma in section 2.5.3. As demonstrated there and in section 2.5.4, when players are sufﬁciently patient even payoffs that cannot be written as a rational convex combination of pure-action payoffs are exactly the average payoff of a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium without public correlation, giving a payoff folk theorem without public correlation. Of course, this requires a complicated nonstationary sequence of actions (and the required bound on the discount factor may be higher). As in section 2.5.3, the techniques of self-generation provide an indirect technique for constructing such sequences of actions. Those techniques are critical in proving the folk theorem for ﬁnite games with imperfect public monitoring and immediately yield (proposition 9.3.1) a perfect monitoring payoff folk theorem without public correlation. An alternative more direct approach is described in section 3.7. The notion of individual rationality implicitly used in the last paragraph was relative to the pure-action minmax. The difﬁculty in proving the folk theorem, when individual rationality is deﬁned relative to the mixed-action minmax, is that the imposition of punishments requires the punishing players to randomize (and so be indifferent over all the actions in the minmax proﬁle). Early versions of the folk theorem provided 1. The term folk arose because its earliest versions were part of the informal tradition of the game theory community for some time before appearing in a publication. 2. The ﬁrst folk theorems proved for our setting (subgame-perfect equilibria in discounted repeated games with perfect monitoring; Fudenberg and Maskin 1986) are of this form.

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appropriate incentives for randomization by making the unconventional assumption that each player’s choice of probability distribution over his action space was observable (this was referred to as the case of observable mixtures), so that indifference was not required. We never make such an assumption. The techniques of self-generation also allow a simple proof of the payoff folk theorem when individual rationality is deﬁned relative to the mixed-action minmax (again, proposition 9.3.1). An alternative more direct approach is described in section 3.8.

3.1

Examples

We ﬁrst illustrate the folk theorem for the examples presented in chapter 1. Figure 3.1.1 shows the feasible payoff space for the prisoners’ dilemma. The proﬁle of pure and mixed minmax payoffs for this game is (0, 0)—because shirking ensures a payoff of at least 0, no player who chooses best responses can ever receive a payoff less than 0. The folk theorem then asserts (and we have already veriﬁed in section 2.5.3) that for any strictly positive proﬁle in the shaded area of ﬁgure 3.1.1, there is a subgame-perfect equilibrium yielding that payoff proﬁle for sufﬁciently high discount factors. This includes the payoffs (2, 2) that arise from persistent mutual effort, as well as the payoffs very close to (0, 0) (the payoff arising from relentless shirking), and a host of other payoffs, including asymmetric outcomes in which one player gets nearly 0 and the other nearly 8/3. The quantiﬁer on the discount factor in this statement is worth noting. The folk theorem implies that for any candidate (feasible, strictly individually rational) payoff, there exists a sufﬁciently high discount factor to support that payoff as a subgameperfect equilibrium. Equivalently, the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs converges to the set of feasible, strictly individually rational payoffs as the discount factor approaches unity. There may not be a single discount factor for which the entire

u(E, S ) u( E, E )

u(S , S ) u(S , E ) Figure 3.1.1 Feasible payoffs (the polygon and its interior) and folk theorem outcomes (the shaded area, minus its lower boundary) for the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma.

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71

Examples

u ( H , h)

u ( H , ᐉ)

u ( L, ᐉ) u ( L, h )

Figure 3.1.2 Feasible payoffs (the polygon and its interior) and folk theorem outcomes (the shaded area, minus its lower boundary) for the inﬁnitely repeated product-choice game with two long-run players.

set appears as equilibrium payoffs, though, as we saw in section 2.5.3, this is the case for the prisoners’ dilemma (see remark 3.3.1). Chapter 1 introduced the product-choice game with the interpretation that the role of player 2 is ﬁlled by a sequence of short-lived players. However, let us consider the case in which the game is played by two long-lived players. Figure 3.1.2 illustrates the feasible payoffs. The pure and mixed minmax payoff is 1 for each player, with player 1 or 2 able to ensure a payoff of 1 by choosing L or , respectively. The folk theorem ensures that any payoff proﬁle in the shaded area, except the lower boundary (to ensure strict individual rationality), can be achieved as a subgame-perfect payoff proﬁle for sufﬁciently high discount factors. Once again, the minmax payoff proﬁle (1, 1) corresponds to a stage-game Nash equilibrium and hence is a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff proﬁle, though this is not an implication of the folk theorem. The folk theorem implies that the highest payoff available to player 1 in a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game is (nearly) 8/3, corresponding to an outcome in which player 2 always buys the high-priced choice but player 1 chooses high effort with a probability only slightly exceeding 1/3. The highest available payoff to player 2 in a subgame-perfect equilibrium is 3, produced by an outcome in which player 2 buys the high-priced product and player 2 exerts high effort. For our ﬁnal example, consider the oligopoly game of section 2.6.2. In contrast to our earlier examples, the action spaces are uncountable; unlike the discussion in section 2.6.2, we make the spaces compact (as we do throughout our general development) by restricting actions to the set [0, q], ¯ where q¯ is large. The set of payoffs implied by some pure action proﬁle is illustrated in ﬁgure 3.1.3. The shaded region is F , not its convex hull (in particular, note that all ﬁrms’ proﬁts must have the same sign, which is determined by the sign of the price-cost margin). The stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium, with payoffs ui (a N ) = [(1 − c)/(n + 1)]2 , and minmax payoffs are p vi = vi = 0 (player i chooses ai = 0 in best response to the other players ﬂooding the market, i.e., choosing q). ¯ The folk theorem shows that in fact every feasible payoff

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u2 u (a m ) u2 ( a N )

− qc u1 (a N )

u1

(v1p , v 2p ) Figure 3.1.3 Payoffs implied by some pure-action proﬁle in the two-ﬁrm oligopoly example of section 2.6.2. Stage-game Nash equilibrium payoffs p (given by ui (a N ) = (1 − c)2 /9) and minmax payoffs (vi = 0) are indicated by two dots. The efﬁcient frontier of the payoff set is given by u1 + u2 = (1 − c)2 /4, where (1 − c)2 /4 is the level of monopoly proﬁts. The point u(a m ) is equal division of monopoly proﬁts, obtained by each ﬁrm producing half monopoly output.

in which all ﬁrms earn strictly positive proﬁts can be achieved as a subgame perfect equilibrium outcome.

3.2

Interpreting the Folk Theorem

3.2.1 Implications The folk theorem asserts that “anything can be an equilibrium.” Once we allow repeated play and sufﬁcient patience, we can exclude as candidates for equilibrium payoffs only those that are obviously uninteresting, being either infeasible or offering some player less than his minmax payoff. This result is sometimes viewed as an indictment of the repeated games literature, implying that game theory has no empirical content. The common way of expressing this is that “a theory that predicts everything predicts nothing.” Multiple equilibria are common in settings that range far beyond repeated games. Coordination games, bargaining problems, auctions, Arrow-Debreu economies, mechanism design problems, and signaling games (among many others) are notorious for multiple equilibria. Moreover, a model with a unique equilibrium would be quite useless for many purposes. Behavioral conventions differ across societies and cities, ﬁrms, and families. Only a theory with multiple equilibria can capture this richness. If there is a problem with repeated games, it cannot be that there are multiple equilibria but that there are “too many” multiple equilibria. This indictment is unconvincing on three counts. First, a theory need not make precise predictions to be useful. Even when the folk theorem applies, the game-theoretic

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73

Interpreting the Folk Theorem

study of long-run relationships deepens our understanding of the incentives for opportunistic behavior and the institutional responses that might discourage such behavior. Repeated games help us understand why we might see asymmetric and nonstationary behavior in stationary symmetric settings, why some noisy signals may be more valuable than other seemingly just as noisy ones, why efﬁciency might hinge on the ability to punish some players while rewarding others, and why seemingly irrelevant details of an interaction may have tremendous effects on behavior. Without such an understanding, a useful model of behavior is beyond our grasp. Second, we are often interested in cases in which the conditions for the folk theorem fail. The players may be insufﬁciently patient, the monitoring technology may be insufﬁciently informative, or some of the players may be short-lived (see section 2.7). There is much to be learned from studying the set of equilibrium payoffs in such cases. The techniques developed in chapters 7 and 8 allow us to characterize equilibrium payoffs when the folk theorem holds and when it fails. Third, the folk theorem places bounds on payoffs but says nothing about behavior. The strategy proﬁles used in proving folk theorems are chosen for analytical ease, not for any putative positive content, and make no claims to be descriptions of what players are likely to do. Instead, the repeated game is a model of an underlying strategic interaction. Choosing an equilibrium is an integral part of the modeling process. Depending on the nature of the interaction, one might be interested in equilibria that are efﬁcient or satisfy the stronger efﬁciency notion of renegotiation proofness (section 4.6), that make use of only certain types of (perhaps “payoff relevant”) information (section 5.6), that are in some sense simple (remark 2.3.1), or that have some other properties. One of the great challenges facing repeated games is that the conceptual foundations of such equilibrium selection criteria are not well understood. Whether the folk theorem holds or fails, it is (only) the point of departure for the study of behavior.

3.2.2 Patient Players There are two distinct approaches to capturing the idea that players are patient. Like much of the work inspired by economic applications, we consider players who discount payoff streams, with discount factors close to 1. Another approach is to consider preferences over the inﬁnite stream of payoffs that directly capture patience. Indeed, the folk theorem imposing perfection was ﬁrst proved for such preferences, by Aumann and Shapley (1976) for the limit-of-means preference LM and by Rubinstein (1977, 1979a) for the limit-of-means and overtaking preferences O , where3 {uti } LM {uˆ ti } ⇔ lim inf T →∞

T uti − uˆ ti >0 T t=0

and {uti } O {uˆ ti } ⇔ lim inf T →∞

T

uti − uˆ ti > 0.

t=0

3. Because there is no guarantee that the inﬁnite sum is well deﬁned, the lim inf is used.

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See Osborne and Rubinstein (1994) for an insightful discussion of these preferences and the associated folk theorems. Because a player who evaluates payoffs using limitof-means is indifferent between two payoff streams that only differ in a ﬁnite number of periods, the perfection requirement is easy to satisfy in that case. Consider, for example, the following proﬁle in the repeated oligopoly of section 2.6.2: The candidate outcome ˜ . . . , q) ˜ for L periods is (a m , . . . , a m ) in every period; if a player deviates, then play (q, (ignoring deviations during these L periods), and return to (a m , . . . , a m ) (until the next deviation from (a m , . . . , a m )), where L satisﬁes4 µd (a m ) + Lµ(q) ˜ < (L + 1)µ(a m ). This proﬁle is a Nash equilibrium under limit-of-means and overtaking (as well as for discounting, if δ is sufﬁciently close to 1). Moreover, under limit-of-means, because the punishment is only imposed for a ﬁnite number of periods, it is costless to impose, and so the proﬁle is perfect. Overtaking is a more discriminating preference order than limit-of-means. In particular, a player who evaluates payoffs using overtaking strictly prefers the stream u0i , u1i , u2i , . . . to the stream u0i − 1, u1i , u2i , . . . Consequently, though perfection is not a signiﬁcant constraint with limit-of-means, it is with overtaking. In particular, the proﬁle just described is not perfect with the overtaking criterion. A perfect equilibrium for overtaking requires sequences of increasingly severe punishments: Because minmaxing player i for L periods may require player j to suffer signiﬁcantly in those L periods, the threatened punishment of j , if j does not punish i, may need to be signiﬁcantly longer than the original punishment. And providing for that punishment may require even longer punishments. Both overtaking and limit-of-means preferences suffer from two shortcomings: They are incomplete (not all payoff streams are comparable) and they do not respect mixtures, because lim inf is not a linear operator. Much of the more recent mathematical literature in repeated games has instead used Banach limits, which do respect mixtures and yield complete preferences.5 The tradition in economics has been to work with discounted payoffs, whereas the more mathematical literature is inclined to work with limit payoffs that directly capture patience. One motivation for the latter is the observation that many of the most powerful results in game theory—most notably the various folk theorems—are statements about patient players. If this is one’s interest, then one might as well replace the technicalities involved in taking limits with the convenience of limit payoffs. If one 4. Recall that µ(q) is the stage-game payoff when all ﬁrms produce the same output q, and µd (q) is the payoff to a ﬁrm from myopically optimizing when all the other ﬁrms produce q. 5. Let ∞ denote the set of bounded sequences of real numbers (the set of possible payoff streams). A Banach limit is a linear function : ∞ → R satisfying, for all u = {ut } ∈ ∞ , lim inf ut ≤ (u) ≤ lim sup ut t→∞

t→∞

and displaying patience, in the sense that, if u and v are elements of ∞ with v t = ut+1 for t = 0, . . . , then (u) = (v).

3.2

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Interpreting the Folk Theorem

75

knows what happens with limit payoffs, then it seems that one knows what happens with arbitrarily patient players. Many results in repeated games are indeed established for arbitrarily patient players, and patience often makes arguments easier. However, we are also often interested in what can be accomplished for ﬁxed discount factors, discounting that may not be arbitrarily close to 1. In addition, although it is generally accepted that limit payoff results are a good guide to results for players with high discount factors, the details of this relationship are not completely known. We conﬁne our attention to the case of discounting. 3.2.3 Patience and Incentives The fundamental idea behind work in repeated games is the trade-off between current and future incentives. This balance appears most starkly in the criterion for an action to be enforceable (sections 2.5 and 7.3), which focuses attention on total payoffs as a convex combination of current and future payoffs. The folk theorems are variations on the theme that there is considerable latitude for the current behavior that might appear in an equilibrium if the future is sufﬁciently important. The common approach to enhancing the impact of future incentives concentrates on making players more patient, increasing the weight on future payoffs. For example, player 1 can potentially be induced to choose high effort in the product-choice game if and only if the future consequences of this action are sufﬁciently important. This increased patience can be interpreted as either a change in preferences or as a shortening of the length of a period of play. This latter interpretation arises as follows: If players discount time continuously at rate r and a period is of length > 0, then the effective discount factor is δ = e−r . In this latter interpretation, is a parameter describing the environment in which the repeated game is embedded, and the effective discount factor δ goes to 1 as the length of the period goes to 0.6 For perfect-monitoring repeated games, the preferred interpretation is one of taste, because the model does not distinguish between patience and short period length. However, as we discuss in section 9.8, this is not true with public monitoring. An alternative approach to enhancing the importance of future incentives is to ﬁx the discount factor and reduce the impact on current payoffs from different current actions. For example, we could reformulate the product-choice game as one in which player 1’s payoff difference between high and low effort is given by a value c > 0 (taken to be 1 in our usual formulation) that reﬂects the cost of high effort. We could then examine the consequences for repeated-game payoffs of allowing c to shrink, for a ﬁxed discount factor. As c gets small, so does the temptation to defect from an equilibrium prescription of high effort, making it likely that the incentives created by continuation payoffs will be powerful enough to induce high effort. 6. The latter interpretation is particularly popular in the bargaining literature (beginning with Rubinstein 1982). The fundamental insight in that literature is that the division of the surplus reﬂects the relative impatience of the two bargainers. At the same time, the absolute impatience of a bargainer arises from the delay imposed by the bargaining technology should a proposed agreement be rejected. On the strength of the intuition that in practice there is virtually nothing preventing parties from very rapidly making offers and counteroffers, interest has focused on the case in which bargainers become arbitrarily patient (while preserving relative rates of impatience).

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These two approaches reﬂect different ways of organizing the collection of repeated games. The common approach ﬁxes a stage game and then constructs a collection of repeated games corresponding to different discount factors. One then asks which of the games in this collection allow certain equilibrium outcomes, such as high effort in the product-choice game. The folk theorem tells us that patience is a virtue in this quest. Alternatively, we could ﬁx a discount factor and look at the collection of repeated games induced by a collection of stage games, such as the collection of product-choice games parameterized by the cost of high effort c. We could then again ask which of the games in this collection allow high effort. In this case, being relatively amenable to high effort (having a low value of c) will be a virtue. Our development of repeated games in parts I–III follows the standard approach of focusing on the discount factor. We return to this distinction in chapter 15, where we ﬁnd a ﬁrst indication that focusing on families of stage games for a ﬁxed discount factor may be of interest, and then in chapter 18, where this approach will play an important role. 3.2.4 Observable Mixtures Many early treatments of the folk theorem assumed players’ mixed strategies are observable and that public correlating devices are available. We are interested in cases with public correlation, as well as those without. However, we follow the now standard practice of assuming that mixed strategies are not observable. The set of equilibrium payoffs for arbitrarily patient players is unaffected by the presence of a public correlating device or an assumption that mixed strategies are observable. However, public correlation may have implications for the strategies that produce these payoffs, potentially allowing an equilibrium payoff to be supported by the repeated play of a single correlated mixture rather than a possibly more complicated sequence of pure action proﬁles. Similarly, if players’ mixtures themselves (rather than simply their realized actions) were observable, then we could design punishments using mixed minmax action proﬁles without having to compensate players for their lack of indifference over the actions in the support of these mixtures. In addition, we have seen in sections 2.5.3 and 2.5.6 that public correlation may allow us to attain a particular equilibrium payoff with a smaller discount factor. Observable mixtures can also have this effect.

3.3

The Pure-Action Folk Theorem for Two Players

The simplest nontrivial subgame-perfect equilibria in repeated games use Nash reversion as a threat. Any deviation from equilibrium play is met with permanent reversion to a static Nash equilibrium (automatically ensuring that the punishments are credible, see remark 2.6.1).7 Because of their simplicity, such Nash-reversion equilibria are commonly studied, especially in applications. In the prisoners’ dilemma or the product-choice game, the study of Nash-reversion equilibria could be the end of the 7. The seminal work of Friedman (1971) followed this approach.

3.3

■

The Folk Theorem for Two Players

77

story. In each game, there is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game whose payoffs coincide with the minmax payoffs. Nash reversion is then the most severe punishment available, in the sense that any outcome that can be supported by any subgame-perfect equilibrium can be supported by Nash-reversion strategies. As the oligopoly game makes clear, however, not all games have this property. Nash reversion is not the most severe punishment in such games, and the set of Nash-reversion equilibria excludes some equilibrium outcomes. Recall from lemma 2.1.1 that the payoff in any pure-strategy Nash equilibrium canp i ). not be less than the pure-action minmax, vi = mina−i maxai ui (ai , a−i ) ≡ ui (aˆ ii , aˆ −i The folk theorem for two players uses the threat of mutual minmaxing to deter deviaˆ It is worth noting that player i’s tions. Denote the mutual minmax proﬁle (aˆ 12 , aˆ 21 ) by a. p payoff from the mutual minmax proﬁle may be strictly less than vi , that is, carrying out the punishment may be costly. Accordingly, the proﬁle must provide sufﬁcient incentives to carry out any punishments necessary, and so is reminiscent of the proﬁle in example 2.7.1. Proposition Two-player folk theorem with perfect monitoring Suppose n = 2.

3.3.1

1. For all strictly pure-action individually rational action proﬁles a, ˜ that is, p ˜ > vi for all i, there is a δ ∈ (0, 1) such that for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), there ui (a) exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated game with discount factor δ in which a˜ is played in every period. 2. For all v ∈ F †p , there is a δ ∈ (0, 1) such that for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium, with payoff v, of the inﬁnitely repeated game with public correlation and discount factor δ.

Remark The order of quantiﬁers in the proposition is important, with the bound on the

3.3.1 discount factor depending on the action proﬁle. Only when A is ﬁnite and there is no public correlation is it necessarily true there is a single discount factor δ for which every strictly pure-action individually rational action proﬁle is played in every period in some subgame-perfect equilibrium. Similarly, there need be no single discount factor for which every payoff v ∈ F †p can be achieved as an equilibrium payoff in the game with public correlation. The folk theorem result in section 2.5.3 for the prisoners’ dilemma is the stronger uniform result, because a single discount factor sufﬁces for all payoffs in F †p . The following two properties of the prisoners’ dilemma sufﬁce for the result: (1) The pure-action minmax strategy proﬁle is a Nash equilibrium of the p stage game; and (2) for any action proﬁle a and player i satisfying ui (a) < vi , if p ai is a best reply for i to a−i , then ui (ai , a−i ) ≤ vi . Because the set of equilibrium payoffs is compact, this uniformity also implies that all weakly individually rational payoffs are equilibrium payoffs for large δ. Figure 3.3.1 presents a game for which such a uniform result does not hold. Each player has a minmax value of 0. Consider the payoff (1/2, 0), which maximizes player 1’s payoff subject to the constraint that player 2 receive at least her minmax payoff. Any outcome path generating this payoff must consist exclusively of the action proﬁles TL and TR. There is no equilibrium, for any δ < 1, yielding such an outcome path. If TR appears in the ﬁrst period, then 2’s equilibrium payoff is

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The Folk Theorem

L

R

T

0, −1

1, 1

B

−1, −1

−1, 0

Figure 3.3.1 A game in which some weakly individually rational payoff proﬁles cannot be obtained as equilibrium payoffs, for any δ < 1.

at least (1 − δ) + δ × 0 > 0, because 2 can be assured of at least her minmax payoff in the future. If TL appears in the ﬁrst period, a deviation by player 2 to R again ensures a positive payoff. ◆ p

Proof Statement 1. Fix an action proﬁle a˜ satisfying ui (a) ˜ > vi for all i, and (as usual)

let M = maxi,a∈A ui (a), so that M is the largest payoff available to any player i in the stage game. The desired proﬁle is the simple strategy proﬁle (deﬁnition 2.6.1) given by σ (a(0), a(1), a(2)), where a(0) is the constant outcome path in which a˜ is played in every period, and a(i), i = 1, 2, is the common punishment outcome path of L periods of mutual minmax aˆ followed by a return to a˜ in every period (where L is to be determined). The strategy proﬁle is described by the automaton with states W = {w() : = 0, . . . , L}, initial state w0 = w(0), output function f (w()) =

a, ˜

if = 0,

a, ˆ

if = 1, . . . , L,

and transition rule if = 0 and a = a, ˜ or = L and a = a, ˆ w(0), τ (w(), a) = w( + 1), if 0 < < L and a = a, ˆ w(1), otherwise. p

Because ui (a) ˆ ≤ vi < ui (a), ˜ there exists L > 0 such that L mini (ui (a) ˜ − ui (a)) ˆ > M − mini ui (a). ˜

(3.3.1)

If L satisﬁes (3.3.1), then a sufﬁciently patient player i strictly prefers L + 1 ˜ to deviating, receiving at most M in the current period and then periods of ui (a) ˆ enduring L periods of ui (a).

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The Folk Theorem for Two Players

We now argue that for sufﬁciently large δ, ui (a) ˜ ≥ (1 − δ)M + δvi∗ ,

(3.3.2)

where ˆ + δ L ui (a). ˜ vi∗ = (1 − δ L )ui (a) The left side of (3.3.2) is the repeated-game payoff from the equilibrium path of a˜ in every period. The right side of (3.3.2) is an upper bound on player i’s payoff from deviating from the equilibrium. The deviation entails an immediate bonus, which is bounded above by M and then, beginning in the next period and hence discounted by δ, a “punishment phase” whose payoff is given by vi∗ . Note that p there is a δ ∗ such that for all i and δ > δ ∗ , vi∗ > vi . Substituting for vi∗ in (3.3.2) and rearranging gives ˜ ≥ (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )ui (a), ˆ (1 − δ L+1 )ui (a) and dividing by (1 − δ) yields L t=0

δ t ui (a) ˜ ≥M +δ

L−1

δ t ui (a). ˆ

t=0

If (3.3.1) holds, there is a δ ≥ δ ∗ such that the above inequality holds for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) and all i. It remains to be veriﬁed that no player has a proﬁtable one-shot deviation from the punishment phase when δ ∈ (δ, 1). This may be less apparent, as it may be costly to minmax the opponent. However, if any deviation from the punishment phase is proﬁtable, it is proﬁtable to do so in w(1), because the payoff of the punishment phase is lowest in the ﬁrst period and every deviation induces the same path of subsequent play. Following the proﬁle in w(1) gives a payoff of p vi∗ , whereas a deviation yields a current payoff of at most vi < vi∗ (because each player is being minmaxed) with a continuation of vi∗ , and hence strictly suboptimal. Statement 2. Let α be the correlated proﬁle achieving payoff v. The second state-

ment is proved in the same manner as the ﬁrst, once we have described the automaton. Recall (from remark 2.3.3) that the automaton representing a pure strategy proﬁle in the game with public correlation is given by (W , µ0 , f, τ ), where µ0 ∈ (W ) is the distribution over initial states and τ : W × A → (W ). The required automaton is a modiﬁcation of the automaton from part 1 of the proof, where the state w(0) is replaced by {w a : a ∈ A} (a collection of states, one for each pure-action proﬁle) and the initial state is replaced by µ0 , a randomization according to α over {wa : a ∈ A}. Finally, f (w a ) = a, and for states w a , the transition rule is α, if a = a, a τ (w , a ) = w(1), otherwise,

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The Folk Theorem

where α is interpreted as the probability distribution over {w a : a ∈ A} assigning probability α(a) to w a . ■

In some games, it is a stage-game Nash equilibrium for each player to choose the action that minmaxes the other player. In this case, Nash-reversion punishments are the most severe possible, and there is no need to consider more intricate punishments. The prisoners’dilemma has this property, again making it a particularly easy game with which to work, though also making it rather special. In other games, mutual minmaxing behavior is not a stage-game Nash equilibrium, with it instead being quite costly to minmax another player. Mutual minmaxing is then a valuable tool, because it provides more severe punishments than Nash reversion, but now we must provide incentives for the players to carry out such a punishment. This gives rise to the temporary period of minmaxing used when constructing the equilibria needed to prove the folk theorem. The minmaxing behavior is sufﬁciently costly to deter deviations from the original equilibrium path, whereas the temporary nature of the punishment and the prospect of a return to the equilibrium path creates the incentives to adhere to the punishment should it ever begin.

3.4

The Folk Theorem with More than Two Players

3.4.1 A Counterexample The proof of the two-player folk theorem involved strategies in which the punishment phase called for the two players to simultaneously minmax one another. This allowed the punishments needed to sustain equilibrium play to be simply constructed. When there are more than two players, there may exist no combination of strategies that simultaneously minmax all players, precluding an approach that generalizes the twoplayer proof. We illustrate with an example taken from Fudenberg and Maskin (1986, example 3). The three-player stage game is given in ﬁgure 3.4.1. In this game, player 1 chooses rows, player 2 chooses columns, and player 3 chooses matrices. Each player’s pure (and mixed) minmax payoff is 0. For example, if player 2 chooses the second column and player 3 the ﬁrst matrix, then player 1 receives a payoff of at most 0. However, there is no combination of actions that simultaneously minmaxes all of the players. For any pure proﬁle a with u(a) = (0, 0, 0), there is a player with a deviation that yields that player a payoff of 1. This ensures that the proof given for the two-player folk theorem does not immediately carry over to the case of more players but leaves the possibility that the result itself generalizes. However, this is not the case. To see this, let v ∗ be the minimum payoff attainable in any subgame-perfect equilibrium, for any player and any discount factor, in this three-player game. Given the symmetry of the game, if one player achieves a given payoff, then all do, obviating the need to consider player-speciﬁc minimum payoffs. We seek a lower bound on v ∗ and will show that this lower bound is at least 1/4, for every discount factor.

3.4

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81

More than Two Players

r

T

1, 1, 1

0, 0, 0

B

0, 0, 0

0, 0, 0

r

T

0, 0, 0

0, 0, 0

B

0, 0, 0

1, 1, 1

L

R

Figure 3.4.1 A three-player game in which players cannot be simultaneously

minmaxed.

The ﬁrst thing to note is that given any speciﬁcation of stage-game actions, there is at least one player who, conditional on the actions of the other two players, can achieve a payoff of 1/4 in the stage game. In particular, let αi (1) be the probability attached to the ﬁrst action (i.e., ﬁrst row, column, or matrix) for player i. Then for any speciﬁcation of stage game actions, there must be one player i for whom either αj (1) ≥ 1/2 and αk (1) ≥ 1/2 or (1 − αj (1)) ≥ 1/2 and (1 − αk (1)) ≥ 1/2. In the former case, playing the ﬁrst action gives player i a payoff at least 1/4, whereas in the second case playing the second action does so. Now ﬁx a discount factor δ and an equilibrium, and let player i be the one who, given the ﬁrst-period actions of his competitors, can choose an action giving a payoff at least 1/4 in the ﬁrst period. Then doing so ensures player i a repeated-game payoff of at least (1 − δ) 14 + δv ∗ . If the putative equilibrium is indeed an equilibrium, then it must give an equilibrium payoff at least as high as the payoff (1 − δ) 14 + δv ∗ that player i can obtain. Because this must be true of every equilibrium, the lower bound v ∗ on equilibrium payoffs must also satisfy this inequality, or v ∗ ≥ (1 − δ) 14 + δv ∗ , which we solve for v ∗ ≥ 14 . The folk theorem fails in this case because there are feasible strictly individually rational payoff vectors, namely, those giving some player a payoff in the interval (0, 1/4), that cannot be obtained as the result of any subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game, for any discount factor. It may appear as if not much is lost by the inability to achieve payoffs less than 1/4, because we rarely think of a player striving to achieve low payoffs. However, we could embed this game in a larger one, where it serves as a punishment designed to create incentives not to deviate from an equilibrium path. The inability to secure payoffs lower than 1/4 may then limit the ability to achieve relatively lucrative equilibrium payoffs.

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3.4.2 Player-Specific Punishments The source of difﬁculty in the previous example is that the payoffs of the players are perfectly aligned, so that it is impossible to increase or decrease one player’s payoff without doing so to all other players. In this section, we show that a folk theorem holds when we have the freedom to tailor rewards and punishments to players. Definition A payoff v ∈ F ∗ allows player-speciﬁc punishment if there exists a collection

3.4.1 {v i }ni=1 of payoff proﬁles, v i ∈ F ∗ , such that for all i, vi > vii , and, for all j = i,

j

vi > vii . The collection {v i }ni=1 constitutes a player-speciﬁc punishment for v. If {v i }ni=1 constitutes a player-speciﬁc punishment for v and v i ∈ F , then {v i }ni=1 constitute pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments for v. Hence, we can deﬁne n payoff proﬁles, one proﬁle v i for each player i, with the property that player i fares worst (and fares worse than the candidate equilibrium payoff ) under proﬁle v i . This is the type of construction that is impossible in the preceding example. Recall that p

p

F p ≡ {v ∈ F : vi > vi } = {u(a) : ui (a) > vi , a ∈ A} is the set of payoffs in F †p achievable in pure actions. The existence of pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments for a payoff v ∈ F p or F †p turns out to be sufﬁcient for v to be a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. Proposition 1. Suppose v ∈ F p allows pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments in F p . There

3.4.1

exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v. 2. Suppose v ∈ F †p allows player-speciﬁc punishments in F †p . There exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v of the repeated game with public correlation.

Before proving this proposition, we discuss its implications. Given proposition 3.4.1, obtaining a folk theorem reduces to obtaining conditions under which all feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs allow pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments. For continuum action spaces, F p may well have a nonempty interior, as it does in our oligopoly example. If a payoff vector v is in the interior of F p , we can vary one player’s payoff without moving others’ payoffs in lock-step. Beginning with a payoff v, we can then use variations on a payoff v < v to construct player speciﬁc punishments for v. This provides the sufﬁcient condition that we combine with proposition 3.4.1 to obtain a folk theorem. For ﬁnite games, there is no hope for F p being convex (except the trivial case of a game with a single payoff proﬁle) or having a nonempty interior. One can only assume directly that F p allows player-speciﬁc punishment. However, the set F †p is necessarily convex. The full dimensionality of F †p then provides a sufﬁcient condition for a folk theorem with public correlation.

3.4

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More than Two Players

83

Proposition Pure-minmax perfect monitoring folk theorem

3.4.2

1. Suppose F p is convex and has nonempty interior. Then, for every payoff v in {v˜ ∈ F p : ∃v ∈ F p , vi < v˜i ∀i}, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v. 2. Suppose F †p has nonempty interior. Then, for every payoff v in {v˜ ∈ F †p : ∃v ∈ F †p , vi < v˜i ∀i}, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame perfect equilibrium, with payoffs v, of the repeated game with public correlation.

The set {v˜ ∈ F p : ∃v ∈ F p , vi < v˜i ∀i} equals F p except for its lower boundary. When a set is convex, the condition that it have nonempty interior is equivalent to that of the set having full dimension.8 The assumption that F †p have full dimension is Fudenberg and Maskin’s (1986) full-dimensionality condition.9 Proof of Proposition 3.4.2 We only prove the ﬁrst statement, because the second is proved

mutatis mutandis. Fix v ∈ {v˜ ∈ F p : ∃v ∈ F p , vi < v˜i ∀i}. Because F p is convex and has nonempty interior, there exists v ∈ intF p satisfying vi < vi for √ all i.10 Fix ε > 0 sufﬁciently small that the nε-ball centered at v is contained in intF p . For each player i, let a i denote the proﬁle of stage-game actions that achieves the payoff proﬁle (v1 + ε, . . . , vi−1 + ε, vi , vi+1 + ε, . . . , vn + ε).

By construction, the proﬁles a 1 , . . . , a n generate player-speciﬁc punishments. Now apply proposition 3.4.1. ■

Remark

Dispensability of public correlation The statement of this proposition and the

3.4.1 preceding discussion may give the impression that public correlation plays an indispensable role in the folk theorem for ﬁnite games. Although it simpliﬁes the constructive proof, it is unnecessary. Section 3.7 shows that the perfect monitoring folk theorem (proposition 3.4.2(2)) holds as stated without public correlation. Section 3.8 continues by showing that the proposition also holds (without public correlation) when F †p is replaced by F ∗ , and hence pure minmax utilities replaced by (potentially lower) mixed minmax utilities. ◆ We now turn to the proof of proposition 3.4.1. The argument begins as in the twoplayer case, assuming that players choose a stage-game action proﬁle a ∈ A giving payoff v. A deviation by player i causes the other players to minmax i for a sufﬁciently long period of time as to render the deviation suboptimal. Now, however, it is not obvious that the remaining players will ﬁnd it in their interest to execute this punishment. In the two-player case, the argument that punishments would be optimally executed depended on the fact that the punishing players were themselves being minmaxed. This 8. The dimension of a convex set is the maximum number of linearly independent vectors in the set. 9. Though not usual, it is possible that F †p includes part of its lower boundary. For example, the payoff vector (1/2, 1/2, 1) in the game of ﬁgure 3.4.2 is in F †p and lies on its lower boundary. 10. The interior of a set A is denoted int A .

84

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

L

R

T

1, 1, 1

2, 2, 0

B

2, 0, 2

1, 0, 1

L

R

T

0, 2, 2

1, 1, 0

B

0, 1, 1

2, 2, 2 r

Figure 3.4.2 Impossibility of mutual minmax when player-speciﬁc punishments are possible.

imposed a bound on how much a player could gain by deviating from a punishment that allowed us to ensure that such deviations would be suboptimal. However, the assumption that v allows player-speciﬁc punishments does not ensure that mutual minmaxing is possible when there are more than two players. For example, consider the stage game in ﬁgure 3.4.2, where player 1 chooses rows, player 2 chooses columns, and player 3 matrices. The strictly individually rational payoff proﬁle (1, 1, 1), though not a Nash equilibrium payoff of the stage game, does allow player-speciﬁc punishments (in which v i gives player i a payoff of 0 and a payoff of 2 to the other players). It is, however, impossible to simultaneously minmax all of the players. Instead, minmaxing player 1 requires strategies (·, L, r), minmaxing 2 requires (B, ·, ), and minmaxing 3 requires (T , R, ·). As a result, we must ﬁnd an alternative device to ensure that punishments will be optimally executed. The incentives to do so are created by providing the punishing players with a bonus on the completion of the punishment phase. The second condition for player-speciﬁc punishments ensures that it is possible to do so. Proof of Proposition 3.4.1 Statement 1. Let a 0 be a proﬁle of pure stage-game actions

that achieves payoff v and a 1 , . . . , a n a collection of action proﬁles providing player-speciﬁc punishments. The desired proﬁle is the simple strategy proﬁle (deﬁnition 2.6.1), σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)), where a(0) is the constant outcome path in which a 0 is played in every period, and a(i), i = 1, . . . , n, is i’s punishment outcome path of L periods of aˆ i followed by a i in every period (where L is to be determined and aˆ i is the proﬁle that minmaxes player i). Under this proﬁle, the stage-game action proﬁle a 0 is played in the ﬁrst period and in every subsequent period as long as it has always been played. If agent i deviates from this behavior, then the proﬁle calls for i to be minmaxed for L periods, followed by perpetual play of a i . Should any player j (including i himself) deviate from either of these latter two prescriptions, then the equilibrium calls for the play of aˆ j for L periods, followed by perpetual play of a j , and so on.11 An automaton for this proﬁle has the set of states W = {w(d) : 0 ≤ d ≤ n} ∪ {w(i, t) : 1 ≤ i ≤ n, 0 ≤ t ≤ L − 1},

11. In each case, simultaneous deviations by two or more players are ignored.

3.4

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85

More than Two Players

initial state w 0 = w(0), output function f (w(d)) = a d and f (w(i, t)) = aˆ i , and transition rule τ (w(d), a) =

d , w(j, 0), if aj = ajd , a−j = a−j

otherwise,

w(d),

and τ (w(i, t), a) =

w(j, 0),

i , if aj = aˆ ji , a−j = aˆ −j

w(i, t + 1), otherwise,

where w(i, L) ≡ w(i). We apply proposition 2.4.1 to show that the proﬁle is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. The values in the different states are: V (w(d)) = u(a d ), and V (w(i, t)) = (1 − δ L−t )u(aˆ i ) + δ L−t V (w(i)) = (1 − δ L−t )u(aˆ i ) + δ L−t u(a i ). We begin by verifying optimality in states w = w(d). The one-shot game of proposition 2.4.1 has payoff function g (a) = w

d , (1 − δ)u(a) + δV (w(j, 0)), if aj = ajd , a−j = a−j

(1 − δ)u(a) + δu(a d ),

otherwise.

Setting M ≡ maxi,a ui (a), the action proﬁle a d is a Nash equilibrium of g w if, for all j uj (a d ) ≥ (1 − δ)M + δVj (w(j, 0)) p

= (1 − δ)M + δ[(1 − δ L )vj + δ L uj (a j )]. The left side of this inequality is the payoff from remaining in state wd , whereas the right side is an upper bound on the value of a deviation followed by the accompanying punishment. This constraint can be rewritten as p (1 − δ) M − uj (a d ) ≤ δ(1 − δ L ) uj (a d ) − vj + δ L+1 (uj (a d ) − uj (a j )).

(3.4.1)

As δ → 1, the left side converges to 0, and for d = j , the right side is strictly positive and bounded away from 0. Suppose d = j . Then the inequality can be rewritten as

86

Chapter 3

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The Folk Theorem

M − uj (a j ) ≤

δ(1 − δ L ) p (uj (a j ) − vj ). (1 − δ)

Because δ(1 − δ L ) = lim δ δ t = L, lim δ→1 (1 − δ) δ→1 L−1 t=0

we can choose L sufﬁciently large that p

M − uj (a j ) < L(uj (a j ) − vj ) for all j . Consequently, for δ sufﬁciently close to 1, a d is a Nash equilibrium of g w for w = w(d). We now verify optimality in states w = w(i, t). The one-shot game of proposition 2.4.1 in this case has payoff function g (a) = w

i , if aj = aˆ ji , a−j = aˆ −j

(1 − δ)u(a) + δV (w(j, 0)),

(1 − δ)u(a) + δV (w(i, t + 1)), otherwise.

A sufﬁcient condition for aˆ i to be a Nash equilibrium of g w is that for all j , Vj (w(i, t)) ≥ (1 − δ)M + δVj (w(j, 0)), that is, p

(1 − δ L−t )uj (aˆ i ) + δ L−t uj (a i ) ≥ (1 − δ)M + δ[(1 − δ L )vj + δ L uj (a j )]. (3.4.2) Rearranging, (1 − δ)uj (aˆ i ) + δ(1 − δ L−t−1 )uj (aˆ i ) + δ L−t (1 − δ t+1 )uj (a i ) + δ L+1 uj (a i ) p

p

≥ (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L−t−1 )vj + δ L−t (1 − δ t+1 )vj + δ L+1 uj (a j ), or p δ L+1 uj (a i ) − uj (a j ) ≥ (1 − δ)(M − uj (aˆ i )) + δ(1 − δ L−t−1 )(vj − uj (aˆ i )) p

+ δ L−t (1 − δ t+1 )(vj − uj (a i )). Because L is ﬁxed, this last inequality is clearly satisﬁed for δ close to 1. Statement 2. Let α 0 be the correlated proﬁle that achieves payoff v, and α 1 , . . . , α n

a collection of correlated action proﬁles providing player-speciﬁc punishments. The second statement is proved in the same manner as the ﬁrst, with the correlated action proﬁles α d replacing the pure action proﬁles a d . We need only describe the automaton. Recall (from remark 2.3.3) that the automaton representing a pure

3.5

■

87

Non-Equivalent Utilities

strategy proﬁle in the game with public correlation is given by (W , µ0 , f, τ ), where µ0 ∈ (W ) is the distribution over initial states and τ : W × A → (W ). The set of states is W = (A × {0, 1, . . . , n}) ∪ {w(i, t) : 1 ≤ i ≤ n, 0 ≤ t ≤ L − 1}, the distribution over initial states is given by µ0 ((a, 0)) = α 0 (a), and the output function is f ((a, d)) = a and f (w(i, t)) = aˆ i . For states w(i, t), t < L − 1, the transition is deterministic and given by the transition rule τ (w(i, t), a) =

i , if aj = aˆ ji , a−j = aˆ −j

w(j, 0),

w(i, t + 1), otherwise.

For states w(i, L − 1) the transition is stochastic, reﬂecting the correlated playerspeciﬁc punishments α i : τ (w(i, L − 1), a) =

w(j, 0),

i , if aj = aˆ ji , a−j = aˆ −j

(α i , i),

otherwise,

where (α i , i) is interpreted as the probability distribution over A × {i} assigning probability α i (a) to (a, i). Finally, for states (a, d), the transition is also stochastic, reﬂecting the correlated actions α d :

τ ((a, d), a ) =

=a , w(j, 0), if aj = aj , a−j −j

(α d , d),

otherwise,

where (α d , d) is interpreted as the probability distribution over A × {d} assigning probability α d (a) to (a, d). ■

3.5

Non-Equivalent Utilities

The game presented in section 3.4.1, in which the folk theorem does not hold, has the property that the three players always receive identical utilities. As a result, one can never reward or punish one player without similarly rewarding or punishing all players. The sufﬁcient condition in proposition 3.4.2 is that the set F p be convex and have a nonempty interior. In the interior of this set, adjusting one player’s payoff has no implications for how the payoffs of the other players might vary. How much stronger is the sufﬁcient condition than the conditions necessary for the folk theorem? Abreu, Dutta, and Smith (1994) show that it sufﬁces for the existence of player-speciﬁc punishments (and so the folk theorem) that no two players have identical preferences over action proﬁles in the stage game. Recognizing that the payoffs in a game are measured in terms of utilities and that afﬁne transformations of utility functions preserve preferences, they offer the following formulation.

88

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

Definition The stage game satisﬁes NEU (nonequivalent utilities) if there are no two players i

3.5.1 and j and constants c and d > 0 such that ui (a) = c + duj (a) for all pure action proﬁles a ∈ A. Notice that a nontrivial symmetric game, in which players have the same utility function, need not violate the NEU condition. In a two-player symmetric game, u1 (x, y) = u2 (y, x), whereas a violation of NEU requires u1 (x, y) = u2 (x, y) for all x and y. Proposition If the stage game satisﬁes NEU, then every v ∈ F †p allows player-speciﬁc pun-

3.5.1 ishments in F †p . Moreover, every v ∈ F ∗ allows player-speciﬁc punishments in F ∗ .

Proof If F †p is nonempty, no player can be indifferent over all action proﬁles in A,

and we will proceed under that assumption. For j = i, denote the projection of † † F † onto the ij -coordinate plane by Fij , and its dimension by dimFij . Clearly, †

dimFij ≤ 2. Because F † is convex and no player is indifferent over all action †

proﬁles, dimFij ≥ 1 for all i = j . †

†

Claim 3.5.1. For all players i, either dimFik = 2 for all k = i, or dimFij = 1 †

for some j = i and dimFik = 2 for all k = i, j . †

†

Proof. Suppose dimFij = dimFik = 1 for some j = i and k = i, j . NEU

implies that players i and j have payoffs that are perfectly negatively related, as do players i and k. But this implies that j and k have equivalent payoffs, violating NEU. Claim 3.5.2. There exist n payoff proﬁles {v˜ 1 , . . . , v˜ n } ⊂ F † with the property

that for every pair of distinct players i and j , j

v˜ii < v˜i . Note this is the second condition of player-speciﬁc punishments, and there is no assertion that these payoff proﬁles are strictly or weakly individually rational. †

Proof. If dimFij = 1 for some i and j , then i and j ’s payoffs are perfectly neg-

atively related. Consequently, by the ﬁrst claim, for each pair of players j and jk kj k, there exist some feasible payoff vectors v j k and v kj such that vj > vj and kj

jk

vk > vk . Let {θh : h = 1, . . . , n(n − 1)} be a collection of weights satisfying θh > θh+1 > 0 and h θh = 1. For each player i, order the n(n − 1) payoff jk vectors v j k in increasing size according to vi (break ties arbitrarily), and let v h (i) be the hth vector in the order. Deﬁne θh v h (i). v˜ i = h

From convexity, v˜ i ∈ F † . The construction of the vectors v h (i) ensures that for i = j , we have h≤h vih (i) ≤ h≤h vih (j ) for all h and strict inequality for at least one h . Therefore,

3.5

0>

■

n(n−1)−1

(θ − θ h

h +1

)

h =1

=

89

Non-Equivalent Utilities h

vih (i) − vih (j )

h=1

n(n−1)−1

θh vih (i) − vih (j ) + −

θh +1

h =1 n(n−1)−1

h

−1 h

vih (i) − vih (j )

h=1

n(n−1) vih (i) − vih (j ) + θn(n−1) vih (i) − vih (j )

h=1

h=1

θh vih (i) − vih (j ) − θn(n−1)

n(n−1)−1

h vi (i) − vih (j )

h=1

+ θn(n−1) =

vih (i) − vih (j )

h =1

θh

h =2 n(n−1)−1

h=1 n(n−1)−1

h =1

=

+ θn(n−1)

n(n−1)

n(n−1)

vih (i) − vih (j )

h=1

θh vih (i) − vih (j )

j

= v˜ii − v˜i ,

h

and {v˜ i }i is the desired collection of payoffs.

It only remains to use the payoff vectors from this claim to construct playerspeciﬁc punishments, for any v ∈ F †p . Let w i ∈ F † be a feasible payoff vector minimizing i’s payoff (because F † is compact, the payoff w i solves min{vi : v ∈ F † }). Fix v ∈ F †p and consider the collection of payoff vectors {v i }i , where v i = ε(1 − η)w i + ηε v˜ i + (1 − ε)v (the constants η > 0 and ε > 0 are independent of i and to be determined). From j j convexity, v i ∈ F † . For any η > 0 and ε > 0, vii − vi = ε(1 − η) wii − wi + j p p ηε v˜ii − v˜i < 0.12 For sufﬁciently small ε, because vj > vj , we have vji > vj and so v i ∈ F †p . Finally, for ﬁxed ε, because wii < vi , for sufﬁciently small η, vii < vi , and {v i }i is a player-speciﬁc punishment for v. The second statement follows from the observation that for v ∈ F ∗ , vj > vj and so v i ∈ F ∗ . ■

Using proposition 3.4.1, proposition 3.5.1 allows us to improve on proposition 3.4.2 in two ways. It weakens the full-dimensionality condition to NEU and includes any part of the lower boundary of F p in the set of payoffs covered (see note 9 on page 83).

j

12. NEU is important here, since there is no guarantee that wii < wi . We could not use u(aˆ i ) in place of wi , because as we have argued, minmaxing player i may be very costly for j .

90

Chapter 3

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The Folk Theorem

L

R

T

0, −1

1, 0

B

0, −1

2, 1

Figure 3.5.1 A game with minimal attainable payoffs that are strictly individually rational.

Corollary

3.5.1

Pure-minmax perfect monitoring folk theorem NEU

1. Suppose F p is convex and the stage game satisﬁes NEU. Then, for every payoff v in F p , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v. 2. Suppose the stage game satisﬁes NEU. Then, for every payoff v in F †p , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium, with payoffs v, of the repeated game with public correlation.

Could an even weaker condition sufﬁce? Abreu, Dutta, and Smith (1994) note that Benoit and Krishna (1985) offer a ﬁnite-horizon example that can be adapted to inﬁnite-horizon games in which two out of three players have identical payoffs and the folk theorem fails. Hence, it appears unlikely that we can ﬁnd a much weaker sufﬁcient condition than NEU. Indeed, Abreu, Dutta, and Smith show that the NEU condition is very nearly necessary for the folk theorem. Deﬁne for each player i the payoff fi = min{vi |v ∈ F , vj ≥ vj , j = 1, . . . , n}. Hence, fi is i’s minimal attainable payoff, the worst payoff that can be achieved for player i while restricting attention to payoff vectors that are (weakly) individually rational. If there is a stage-game action proﬁle that gives every player their minmax payoff, as in the prisoners’ dilemma, then fi = vi for all i. Even in the absence of such a proﬁle, every player’s minimal attainable payoff may be the minmax value, as long as for each player i there is some proﬁle yielding the minmax payoff for i without forcing other players below their minmax value. However, it is possible that fi is strictly higher than the minmax payoff. For example, consider the game in ﬁgure 3.5.1. Then the minmax value for each of players 1 and 2 is 0. However, f1 = 1 (while f2 = 0), because the lowest payoff available to player 1 that is contained in a payoff vector with only nonnegative elements is 1.13 Abreu, Dutta, and Smith (1994) then establish the following results. If for every mixed action proﬁle α there is at most one player i whose best response to α gives a payoff no higher than fi , then the NEU condition is necessary (as well as sufﬁcient) for the folk theorem to hold. Notice that one circumstance in which there exists a strategy proﬁle α to which every player i’s best response to α gives a payoff no larger than fi is 13. Minmaxing player 1 requires player 2 to endure a negative payoff.

3.6

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91

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

that in which all players can be simultaneously minmaxed, as in two-player games. It is then no surprise that the folk theorem holds for such games without requiring NEU.14

3.6

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

This section presents a direct characterization of the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs of the game with one patient long-lived player and one or more short-lived players. We defer the general perfect-monitoring characterization result for games with long-lived and short-lived players to proposition 9.3.2. From section 2.7.2, the presence of short-lived players imposes constraints on long-lived players’ payoffs. Accordingly, there is no folk theorem in this case. Because there is only one long-lived player, the convexiﬁcation we earlier obtained by public correlation is easily replaced by nonstationary sequences of outcomes.15 As we will see in section 3.7, this is true in general but signiﬁcantly complicated by the presence of multiple long-lived players. The argument in this section is also of interest because it presages critical features of the argument in section 3.8 dealing with mixed-action individual rationality. For later reference, we ﬁrst describe the set of feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs for n long-lived players. The payoff of a long-lived player i must be drawn from the interval [vi , v¯i ], where (recalling (2.7.1) and (2.7.2)), vi = min max ui (ai , α−i )

(3.6.1)

v¯i = max

(3.6.2)

α∈B ai ∈Ai

and min

α∈B ai ∈supp(αi )

ui (ai , α−i ).

Deﬁne F ≡ {v ∈ Rn : ∃α ∈ B s.t. vi = ui (α), i = 1, . . . , n}, F † ≡ co(F ), and F ∗ ≡ {v ∈ F † : vi > vi , i = 1, . . . , n}. We have thus deﬁned the set of stage-game payoffs F , its convex hull F † , and the subset of these payoffs that are strictly individually rational, all for n long-lived players. These differ from their counterparts for a game with only long-lived players in the restriction to best-response behavior for the short-lived players. As has been our custom, we do not introduce new notation to denote these sets of payoffs, trusting the context to keep things clear. 14. Wen (1994) characterizes the set of equilibrium payoffs for games that fail NEU. 15. Unsurprisingly, public correlation allows a simpler argument; see Fudenberg, Kreps, and Maskin (1990). The argument presented here is also based on Fudenberg, Kreps, and Maskin (1990).

92

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

L

C

R

T

1, 3

0, 0

6, 2

B

0, 0

2, 3

6, 2

Figure 3.6.1 The game for example 3.6.1.

We have deﬁned F as the set of stage-game payoffs produced by proﬁles of mixed actions. When working with long-lived players, our ﬁrst step was to deﬁne F as the set of pure-action stage-game payoffs. Why the difference? When working only with long-lived players, all of the extreme points of the set of stage-game payoffs produced by pure or mixed actions correspond to pure action proﬁles. It then makes no difference whether we begin by examining pure or mixed stage-game proﬁles, as the two sets yield the same convex hull F † . When some players are short-lived, this equivalence no longer holds. The restriction to stage-game payoffs produced by proﬁles in the set B raises the possibility that some of the extreme points of the set of stage-game payoffs may be produced by mixtures. It is thus important to deﬁne F in terms of mixed action proﬁles. Example 3.6.1 illustrates. Example Consider the stage game in ﬁgure 3.6.1. The pure action proﬁles in the set B are

3.6.1 (T , L) and (B, C). Denote a mixed action for player 1 by α1T , the probability attached to T . Then the set B includes

(α1T , L) : α1T ≥

2 3

∪ (α1T , R) :

1 3

≤ α1T ≤

2 3

∪ (α1T , C) : α1T ≤ 13 .

Hence, v1 = 1 and v¯1 = 6. If we had deﬁned F as the set of payoffs produced by pure action proﬁles in B, we would have F = {1, 2} and F † = F ∗ = [1, 2], concluding that the set of equilibrium payoffs for player 1 in the repeated game is [1, 2]. Allowing F to include mixed action proﬁles gives F ⊃ [2/3, 1] ∪ [4/3, 2] ∪ {6}. For any v1 ∈ [1, 6], there is then an equilibrium of the repeated game, for sufﬁciently patient player 1, with a player 1 payoff of v1 .16 ●

Proposition Suppose there is one long-lived player, and v1 < v¯1 . For every v1 ∈ (v1 , v¯1 ], there

3.6.1 exists δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game with value v1 .

Proof Let α be a stage-game Nash equilibrium with payoff v1 for player 1 (this equi-

librium is pure if the stage game has continuum action spaces for all players). Note that v1 ∈ [v1 , v¯1 ]. Repeating the stage-game Nash equilibrium immediately gives a repeated-game payoff of v1 . We separately consider payoffs below and 16. Proposition 3.6.1 ensures only that we can obtain payoffs in the interval (1, 6]. In this case, the lower endpoint corresponds to a stage-game Nash equilibrium and hence is easily obtained as an equilibrium payoff in the repeated game.

3.6

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93

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

above v1 . Because we always require α ∈ B, the short-lived players’ incentive constraints are always satisﬁed. Case 1. v1 ∈ (v1 , v¯1 ].

Let α¯ ∈ B be a stage-game action proﬁle that solves the maximization problem in (3.6.2) (and hence u1 (a1 , α¯ −1 ) ≥ v¯1 for all a1 ∈ supp α¯ 1 ).17 Suppose the discount factor is sufﬁciently large that the following inequality holds: (1 − δ)(M − v1 ) ≤ δ(v1 − v1 ),

(3.6.3)

where M is the largest stage-game payoff. The idea behind the equilibrium strategies is to reward player 1 with the relatively large payoff from α¯ when a discounted average of the payoffs he has so far received are “behind schedule,” and to punish player 1 with the low payoff v1 when it is “ahead of schedule.” To do this, we recursively deﬁne a set of histories H˜ t , a measure of the running total of player 1 expected payoffs ζ t (ht ), and the equilibrium strategy proﬁle σ . We begin with H˜ 0 = {∅} and ζ 0 = 0. Given H˜ t and ζ t (ht ), the strategy proﬁle in period t is given by α , if ζ t (ht ) ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ) and ht ∈ H˜ t , or if ht ∈ H˜ t , t σ (h ) = α, ¯ if ζ t (ht ) < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v ) and ht ∈ H˜ t . 1

The next period set of histories is H˜ t+1 = ht+1 ∈ H t+1 : ht ∈ H˜ t and a t ∈ supp σ (ht ) , and the updated running total is ζ t+1 (ht+1 ) = ζ t (ht ) + (1 − δ)δ t u1 a1t , σ−1 (ht ) − v1 . Note that on H˜ t , σ and ζ t only depend on the history of player 1 actions. Hence, other than the speciﬁcation of Nash reversion after an observable deviation by the short-lived players, the actions of the short-lived players do not affect ζ t . Because ζ t (ht ) = (1 − δ)

t−1

δ τ u1 (a1τ , σ−1 (hτ )) − (1 − δ t )v1 ,

τ =0

ζ t (ht ) would equal (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) if player 1 expected to received a payoff of precisely v1 in each of periods 0, . . . , t − 1 under σ−1 and his realized behavior. As a result, ζ t (ht ) > (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) implies that player 1 is ahead of schedule on ht in terms of accumulating a “notional” repeated game payoff of v1 , whereas ζ t (ht ) < (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) indicates that player 1 is behind schedule.18 It is 17. Note that when A−1 is ﬁnite, α¯ −1 may be mixed. The short-lived players play a Nash equilibrium of the stage game induced by 1’s behavior. This stage game need not have a pure strategy Nash equilibrium (unless there is only one short-lived player). 18. The term (1 − δ t+1 ) cannot be replaced by (1 − δ t ) in the speciﬁcation of σ . Under that speciﬁcation, the ﬁrst action proﬁle is α for all v1 ∈ (v1 , v¯1 ]. It may then be impossible to achieve v1 for v1 close to v¯1 .

94

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

important to remember in the following argument that for histories ht in which the short-lived players do not follow σ−1 , player 1’s actual accumulated payoff does not equal (1 − δ t )v1 + ζ (ht ). On the other hand, for any strategy for player 1, σ˜ 1 , player 1’s payoffs from the proﬁle (σ˜ 1 , σ−1 ) is U1 (σ˜ 1 , σ−1 ) = v1 + E limt→∞ ζ t (ht ) ≡ v1 + Eζ ∞ (h),

(3.6.4)

where expectations are taken over the outcomes h ∈ A∞ . We ﬁrst argue that ζ t (ht ) < v1 − v1 for all ht ∈ H t . The proof is by induction. We have ζ 0 = 0 < v1 − v1 . For the induction step, assume ζ t < v1 − v1 and consider ζ t+1 . We break this into two cases. If ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ) or ) − v ) ≤ ζ t < v − v . If ht ∈ H˜ t , then ζ t+1 = ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (u1 (a1t , α−1 1 1 1 t t+1 t t t+1 ˜ ≤ ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (M − v1 ) < ζ < (1 − δ )(v1 − v1 ) and h ∈ H , then ζ (1−δ t+1 )(v1 −v1 )+δ t+1 (v1 −v1 ) = v1 −v1 , where the ﬁnal inequality uses (3.6.3). We now argue thatif player 1 does not observably deviate from σ1 (i.e., for all a1t ∈ supp σ1 ht , t = 0, . . . , t − 1) then ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ). We again proceed via an induction argument, beginning with the observation that ζ 0 = 0 = (1 − δ 0 )(v1 − v1 ), as required. Now suppose ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) and consider ζ t+1 . If ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then ζ t+1 = ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), the desired result. If ζ t < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then ζ t+1 = ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (u1 (a1t , α¯ 2 ) − v1 ) ≥ ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (v¯1 − v1 ) ≥ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) + (1 − δ)δ t (v1 − v1 ) = (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), as required, where the ﬁrst inequality notes that α¯ is played when ζ t < (1−δ t+1 )× (v1 − v1 ) and applies (3.6.2), the next inequality uses the induction hypothesis that ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ), and the ﬁnal equality collects terms. Hence, if in every period t, player 1 plays any action in the support of σ1 (ht ), then limt→∞ ζ t (ht ) = v1 − v1 , and so from (3.6.4) player 1 is indifferent over all such strategies, and the payoff is v1 . Because play reverts to the stage-game Nash equilibrium α after an observable deviation, to complete the argument that the proﬁle is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, it sufﬁces to argue that after a history ht ∈ H˜ t , player 1 does not have an incentive to choose an action a1 ∈ supp σ1 (ht ). That is, it sufﬁces to argue that the proﬁle is Nash. But the expected value of v1 + limt→∞ ζ (ht ) gives the period 0 value for any strategy of player 1 against σ−1 , and we have already argued that lim supt→∞ ζ t (ht ) ≤ v1 − v1 . Case 2. v1 ∈ (v1 , v1 ).

This case is similar to case 1, though permanent Nash reversion can no longer be easily used to punish observable deviations because the payoff from the stagegame Nash equilibrium is more attractive than the target, v1 . Let αˆ solve (3.6.1) (and hence u1 (a1 , αˆ −1 ) ≤ v1 for all a1 ). Choose δ sufﬁciently large that δ(v1 − v1 ) < (1 − δ)(m − v1 ), where m is the smallest stage-game payoff.

(3.6.5)

3.6

■

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

95

The strategies we deﬁne will only depend on the history of player 1 actions, and so the measure of the running total of player 1 expected payoffs ζ t will also depend only on the history of player 1 actions. For any history ht ∈ H t , ht1 ∈ At1 denotes the history of player 1 actions. We begin with H˜ 0 = {∅} and ζ 0 = 0. The equilibrium strategy proﬁle σ is deﬁned as follows. Set ζ 0 = 0, and given ζ t (ht1 ), the strategy proﬁle in period t is given by σ (h ) = t

α , α, ˆ

if ζ t (ht1 ) < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), if ζ t (ht1 ) ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ).

Because period t behavior under σ depends only on the history of player 1 actions, we write σ (ht1 ) rather than σ (ht ). The updated running total is given by t t t t t ζ t+1 (ht+1 1 ) = ζ (h1 ) + (1 − δ)δ u1 (a1 , σ−1 (h1 )) − v1 . Again, only the actions of the long-lived player affect ζ t . We ﬁrst argue that ζ t (ht1 ) ≤ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) < 0 for t ≥ 1 for all ht1 ∈ At1 . 0 = α ˆ −1 , ensuring ζ 1 ≤ To do this, we ﬁrst note that ζ 0 = 0 and hence α−1 (1 − δ)(v1 − v1 ) < (1 − δ)(v1 − v1 ). We then proceed via induction. Suppose ζ t ≤ (1−δ t )(v1 −v1 ). If ζ t < (1−δ t+1 )(v1 −v1 ), then ζ t+1 ≤ ζ t < (1−δ t+1 )(v1 −v1 ). t =α ˆ −1 , and hence Suppose instead that ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ). Then α−1 ζ t+1 ≤ ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (v1 − v1 ) ≤ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) + (1 − δ)δ t (v1 − v1 ) = (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), where the second inequality uses the induction hypothesis. We now argue that for any history ht , if ζ t (ht1 ) ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then for all a1 ∈ A1 , ζ t+1 (ht1 a1 ) ≥ ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (m − v1 ) > (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ) + δ t+1 (v1 − v1 ) = v1 − v1 , where the strict inequality uses (3.6.5). Finally, for any history ht , if v1 − v1 < ζ t (ht1 ) < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ) and player 1 chooses an action a1t ∈ supp σ1 (ht ), then ζ t+1 (ht1 a1t ) = ζ t (ht1 ) > (v1 − v1 ). Consider now a history ht1 satisfying ζ t (ht1 ) > v1 − v1 (note that ζ 0 is one such history). If player 1 chooses a1t ∈ supp σ1 (ht ), for all t ≥ t, then ζ t (ht1 ) > v1 −v1 for all t ≥ t. Because ζ t (ht1 ) ≤ (1−δ t )(v1 −v1 ) for all ht1 , we then have that on any outcome h ∈ A∞ in which ζ t (ht1 ) > v1 − v1 for some t and for all t ≥ t, player 1 does not observably deviate, ζ ∞ (h1 ) ≡ limt→∞ ζ t (ht1 ) = v1 −v1 . We now apply the one-shot deviation principle (proposition 2.7.1) to complete the argument that the proﬁle is an equilibrium. Fix an arbitrary history ht and associated ζ t (ht1 ). We ﬁrst eliminate a straightforward case. If ζ t (ht1 ) ≤ v1 − v1 ,

96

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The Folk Theorem

then σ (ht ) = α and so ζ t+1 (ht1 a1 ) ≤ ζ t (ht1 ) ≤ v1 − v1 for all a1 . Consequently, at such a history, α is speciﬁed in every subsequent period independent of history, and sequential rationality is trivially satisﬁed. Suppose then ζ t (ht1 ) > v1 − v1 . Consider an action a1 for which ζ t+1 (ht1 a1 ) > v1 − v1 .

(3.6.6)

Then, [ζ t (ht1 ) + (1 − δ t )v1 ] + δ t [(1 − δ)u1 (a1 , αˆ −1 ) + δ Uˆ 1 (ht1 a1 )] = v1 ,

(3.6.7)

where Uˆ 1 (ht1 a1 ) is the expected continuation from following σ after the history ht a1 (this follows from v1 − v1 < ζ t (ht ) ≤ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ), where ht is a continuation of ht a1 and 1 follows σ1 after ht a1t ). This implies that the payoff from a one-shot deviation at ht , (1 − δ)u1 (a1 , αˆ −1 ) + δ Uˆ 1 (ht1 a1 ), is independent of a1 satisfying (3.6.6), and player 1 is indifferent over all such a1 . ˆ and all a1 satisfy (3.6.6). On If ζ t (ht1 ) ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then σ (ht ) = α, the other hand, if ζ t (ht1 ) < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then σ (ht ) = α , and there is a possibility that for some action a1 , (3.6.6) fails. That is, ζ t (ht1 ) + (1 − δ)δ t (u1 (a1 , α−1 ) − v1 ) ≤ v1 − v1 .

(3.6.8)

The history (ht1 a1 ) is the straightforward case above, so that Uˆ 1 (ht1 a1 ) = v1 and ) + δv . Equation (3.6.7) the continuation payoff from a1 is (1 − δ)u1 (a1 , α−1 1 t t holds for a1 ∈ supp σ1 (h ), and so ζ t (ht1 ) + (1 − δ t )v1 + δ t (1 − δ)v1 + δ t+1 Uˆ 1 = v1 .

(3.6.9)

Using (3.6.9) to eliminate ζ t (ht1 ) in (3.6.8) and rearranging yields (1 − δ)δ t u1 (a1 , α−1 ) + δ t+1 v1 ≤ (1 − δ)δ t v1 + δ t+1 Uˆ 1 ,

and so the deviation to a1 is unproﬁtable. ■

3.7

Convexifying the Equilibrium Payoff Set Without Public Correlation

Section 3.4 established a folk theorem using public correlation for payoffs in the set F †p rather than F p . This expansion of the payoff set is important because the former is more likely to satisfy the sufﬁcient condition for player-speciﬁc punishments embedded in proposition 3.4.2, namely, that the set of payoffs has a nonempty interior. This is most obviously the case for ﬁnite games, where F p necessarily has an empty interior.

3.7

■

97

Convexifying the Equilibrium Payoff Set

In this section, we establish a folk theorem for payoffs in F †p as in proposition 3.4.2, but without public correlation. We have already seen two examples. Section 3.6 illustrates how nonstationary sequences of outcomes can precisely duplicate the convexiﬁcation of public correlation for the case of one long-lived player. Example 2.5.3 shows that when players are sufﬁciently patient, even payoffs that cannot be written as a rational convex combination of pure-action payoffs can be exactly the average payoff of a pure-strategy subgame perfect equilibrium, without public correlation. This ability to achieve exact payoffs will be important in the next section, when we consider mixed minmax payoffs. It is an implication of the analysis in chapter 9 (in particular, proposition 9.3.1) that this is true in general (for ﬁnite games), and so the payoff folk theorem holds without public correlation. This section and the next (on punishing using mixed-action minmax) gives an independent treatment of this result. The results achieved using these techniques are slightly stronger than that of proposition 9.3.1 because they include the efﬁcient frontier of F ∗ and cover continuum action spaces. We ﬁrst follow Sorin (1986) in arguing that for any payoff vector v in F † , there is a sequence of pure actions whose average payoffs is precisely v. For ease of future reference, we state the result in terms of payoffs. Lemma Suppose v ∈ Rn is a convex combination of {v(1), v(2), . . . , v(θ )}. Then, for all t 3.7.1 δ ∈ (1 − 1/θ, 1), there exists a sequence {v t }∞ t=0 , v ∈ {v(1), v(2), . . . , v(θ )}, such that ∞ δt vt . v = (1 − δ) t=0

Proof By hypothesis, there exist θ nonnegative numbers λ1 , . . . , λθ with

such that v=

θ

θ

k=1 λ

k

=1

λk v(k).

k=1

Now we recursively construct a payoff path {v t }∞ t=0 whose average payoff is v as follows. The ﬁrst payoff proﬁle is v 0 = v(k), where k is an index for which λk is maximized. Now, suppose we have determined (v 0 , . . . , v t−1 ), the ﬁrst t periods of the payoff path. Let I τ (k) be the indicator function for the τ th element in the sequence: 1 if v τ = v(k), τ I (k) = 0 otherwise, and let N t (k) count the discounted occurrences of proﬁle v(k) in the ﬁrst t periods, N t (k) =

t−1 (1 − δ)δ τ I τ (k), τ =0

with N 0 (k) ≡ 0. Set v t = v(k ), where k = arg max{λk − N t (k)}, k=1,...,θ

(3.7.1)

98

Chapter 3

The Folk Theorem

■

breaking ties arbitrarily. Intuitively, maxk=1,...,θ {λk − N t (k)} identiﬁes the proﬁle that is currently “most underrepresented” in the sequence, and the trick is to choose that proﬁle to be the next element. We now argue that as long as δ > 1 − 1/θ , the resulting sequence generates precisely the payoffs v. Because ∞ θ θ ∞ (1 − δ)δ t v t = (1 − δ)δ t I t (k)v(k) = lim N t (k)v(k), t→∞

t=0

k=1 t=0

k=1

we need only show that limt→∞ N t (k) = λk foreach k. A sufﬁcient condition for this equality is that for all k and all t, N t (k) ≤ λk because limt→∞ θk=1 N t (k) = θ 1 = k=1 λk . We prove N t (k) ≤ λk by induction. Let k(t) denote the k for which v t = v(k). Consider t = 0. There must be at least one proﬁle k for which λk ≥ 1/θ and hence λk > 1 − δ (from the lower bound on δ), ensuring N 1 (k(0))(= 1 − δ) ≤ λk(0) . For all values k = k(0), we trivially have N 1 (k) = 0 ≤ λk . Suppose now t > 0 and N τ (k) ≤ λk for all τ < t and all k. We have t N (k(t − 1)) = N t−1 (k(t − 1)) + (1 − δ)δ t−1 and N t (k) = N t−1 (k) for k = k(t − 1). From the deﬁnitions, we have k

λk −

k

N t−1 (k) = 1 −

N t−1 (k) = 1 − (1 − δ)

k

t−2

δ τ = δ t−1 .

τ =0

Thus δ t−1 /θ ≤ maxk {λk − N t−1 (k)}. Hence (from (3.7.1)) N t (k(t − 1)) = N t−1 (k(t − 1)) + (1 − δ)δ t−1 ≤ N t−1 (k(t − 1)) + (1 − δ)θ [λk(t−1) − N t−1 (k(t − 1))], or N t (k(t − 1)) ≤ [1 − θ (1 − δ)]N t−1 (k(t − 1)) + θ (1 − δ)λk(t−1) . Because 0 < θ (1 − δ) < 1 and N t−1 (k(t − 1)) ≤ λk(t−1) , we have N t (k(t − 1)) ≤ λk(t−1) . Hence N t (k) ≤ λk for all k (because, for k = k(t − 1), the values N t (k) remain unchanged at N t−1 (k) ≤ λk [by the induction hypothesis]). ■

We can thus construct deterministic sequences of action proﬁles that hit any target payoffs in F † exactly. However, dispensing with public correlation by inserting these sequences as continuation outcome paths wherever needed in the folk theorem strategies does not yet give us an equilibrium. The difﬁculty is that some of the continuation values generated by these sequences may fail to be even weakly individually rational. Hence, although the sequences may generate the required initial average payoffs, they may also generate irresistible temptations to deviate as they are played.

3.7

■

99

Convexifying the Equilibrium Payoff Set

The key to resolving this difﬁculty is provided by the following, due to Fudenberg and Maskin (1991). Lemma For all ε > 0, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) and all v ∈ F † , there

3.7.2 exists a sequence of pure action proﬁles whose discounted average payoffs are v and whose continuation payoffs at any time t are within ε of v. Proof Fix ε > 0 and v ∈ F † . Set ε = ε/5, and let Bε (v) be the open ball of radius ε

centered at v, relative to F † .19 Finally, let v 1 , . . . , v θ be payoff proﬁles with the properties that 1. Bε (v) is a subset of the interior of the convex hull of {v 1 , . . . , v θ }; 2. v ∈ B2ε (v), = 1, . . . , θ; and 3. each v is a rational convex combination of the same K pure-action payoff proﬁles u(a(1)), . . . , u(a(K)), with some proﬁles possibly receiving zero weight. The proﬁle v is a rational convex combination of u(a(1)), . . . , u(a(K)) if there are nonnegative rationals, summing to unity, λ (1), . . . , λ (K) with v = K k=1 λ (k)u(a(k)). Because these are rationals, we can express each λ (k) as the ratio of integers r (k)/d, where d does not depend on . Associate with each v the cycle of d action proﬁles

(a(1), . . . , a(1), a(2), . . . , a(2), . . . , a(K), . . . , a(K)). r (1)

r (2)

times

r (K)

times

(3.7.2)

times

Let v (δ) be the average payoff of this sequence, that is, 1−δ v (δ) = 1 − δd

1 − δ r (1) 1 − δ r (2) u(a(1)) + δ r (1) u(a(2)) 1−δ 1−δ +··· + δ

d−r (K) 1 − δ

r (K)

1−δ

u(a(K)) .

Because limδ→1 (1 − δ r (k) )/(1 − δ d ) = r (k)/d, limδ→1 v (δ) = v . Hence, because Bε (v) is in the interior of the convex hull of the v , for sufﬁciently large δ, Bε (v) is a subset of the convex hull of {v 1 (δ), . . . , v θ (δ)}. Moreover, again for sufﬁciently large δ, v (δ) ∈ B3ε (v). Let δ be the implied lower bound on δ. Let δ > δ satisfy (δ )d > 1 − 1/θ. From lemma 3.7.1, if δ > δ , for τ 1 θ each v ∈ Bε (v), there is a sequence {v τ }∞ τ =0 , with v ∈ {v (δ), . . . , v (δ)}, d whose average discounted value using the discount factor δ is exactly v . We now construct another sequence by replacing each v τ = v (δ) in the original sequence with its corresponding cycle, given in (3.7.2). The average 19. Note that we are not assuming F † has nonempty interior (the full-dimension assumption).

100

Chapter 3

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The Folk Theorem

discounted value of the resulting outcome path {a(kt )} using the discount factor δ is precisely v : (τ ) ∞ ∞ (1 − δ)δ dτ 1 − δ r (1) t d (1 − δ) u(a(1)) δ u(a(kt )) = (1 − δ ) 1 − δd 1−δ τ =0

t=0

(τ )

+ δr

(τ ) (1)

1 − δ r (2) u(a(2)) 1−δ (τ )

+ · · · + δ d−r = (1 − δ d )

∞

(τ ) (K)

1 − δ r (K) u(a(K)) 1−δ

δ dτ v τ = v .

τ =0

At the beginning of each period 0, d, 2d, 3d, . . . , the continuation payoff must lie in B3ε (v), because the continuation is a convex combination of v (δ)’s, each of which lies in B3ε (v). An upper bound on the distance that the continuation can be from v is then |u(a) − u(a )| + δ d 3ε . (1 − δ d ) max a,a ∈A

There exists δ > δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), (1 − δ d ) max |u(a) − u(a )| < ε , and so the continuations are always within 4ε of v, and so within 5ε = ε of v . We have thus shown that for ﬁxed ε, for every v ∈ F † there is a δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), for every v ∈ Bε (v), we can ﬁnd a sequence of pure actions whose payoff is v and whose continuation payoffs lie within ε of v . Now cover F † with the collection of sets {Bε (v) : v ∈ F † }. Taking a ﬁnite subcover and then taking the maximum of the δ over this ﬁnite collection of sets yields the result. ■

This allows us to establish: Proposition Suppose F †p has nonempty interior. Then, for every payoff v in {v˜ ∈ F †p : ∃v ∈

3.7.1 F †p , vi < v˜i ∀i}, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v. The idea of the proof is to proceed as in the proof of proposition 3.4.1, applied to F † , choosing a discount factor large enough that each of the optimality conditions holds as a strict inequality by at least some ε > 0. For each payoff v d , d = 0, . . . , n, we then construct an inﬁnite sequence of pure action proﬁles giving the same payoff and with continuation values within some ε of this payoff. The strategies of proposition 3.4.1 can now be modiﬁed so that each state w d is replaced by the inﬁnite sequence of states implementing the payoff u(a d ), with play continuing along the sequence in the absence of a deviation and otherwise triggering a punishment as prescribed in the original strategies. We must then argue that the slack in the optimality conditions (3.4.1)–(3.4.2) ensures that they continue to hold once the potential ε error in continuation payoffs is introduced. Though conceptually straightforward, the details of this

3.8

■

Mixed-Action Individual Rationality

101

argument are tedious and so omitted. For ﬁnite games, this result is a special case of proposition 3.8.1 (which is proved in detail).

3.8

Mixed-Action Individual Rationality

Proposition 3.4.2 is a folk theorem for payoff proﬁles that strictly dominate players’ pure-action minmax utilities. In this section, we extend this result for ﬁnite stage games to payoff proﬁles that strictly dominate players’ mixed-action minmax utilities (recall that in many games, a player’s mixed-action minmax utility is strictly less than his pure-action minmax utility). At the same time, using the results of the previous section, we dispense with public correlation. The difﬁculty in using mixed minmax actions as punishments is that the punishment phase may produce quite low payoffs for the punishers. If the minmax actions are pure, the incentive problems produced by these small payoffs are straightforward. Deviations from the prescribed minmax proﬁle can themselves be punished. The situation is more complicated when the minmax actions are mixed. There is no reason to expect player j to be myopically indifferent over the various actions in the support of the mixture required to minmax player i. Consequently, the continuations after the various actions in the support must be such that j is indifferent over these actions. In other words, strategies will need to adjust postpunishment payoffs to ensure that players are indifferent over any pure actions involved in a mixed-action minmax. This link between realized play during the punishment period and postpunishment play will make an automaton description of the strategies rather cumbersome. We use the techniques outlined in the previous section to avoid the use of public correlation.20 A more complicated argument shows that any payoff in F ∗ is an equilibrium payoff for patient players under NEU (see Abreu, Dutta, and Smith 1994). The following version of the full folk theorem sufﬁces for most contexts. Proposition Mixed-minmax perfect monitoring folk theorem Suppose Ai is ﬁnite for all i

3.8.1 and F ∗ has nonempty interior. For any v ∈ {v˜ ∈ F ∗ : ∃v ∈ F ∗ , vi < v˜i ∀i}, there exists δ ∈ (0, 1) such that for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgameperfect equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated game (without public correlation) with discount factor δ giving payoffs v.

Proof Fix v ∈ {v˜ ∈ F ∗ : ∃v ∈ F ∗ , vi < v˜i ∀i}. Because F ∗ is convex and has a

nonempty interior, there exists v ∈ F ∗ and ε > 0 such that B2nε (v ) ⊂ F ∗ and for every player i,

20. The presence of a public correlation device has no effect on player i’s minmax utility. Given a minmax action proﬁle with public correlation, select an outcome of the randomization for which player i’s payoff is minimized, and then note that the accompanying action proﬁle is a minmax proﬁle giving player i the same payoff. In some games with more than two players, player i’s minmax payoff can be pushed lower than vi if the other players have access to a device that allows them to play a correlated action proﬁle, where this device is not available to player i. This is an immediate consequence of the observation that not all correlated distributions over action proﬁles can be obtained through independent randomization.

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The Folk Theorem

vi − vi ≥ 2ε.

(3.8.1)

Let κ ≡ mini vi − vi , and for each ∈ N ≡ {1, 2, . . .}, let L (δ) be the integer satisfying 2 2 − 1 < L (δ) ≤ . (1 − δ)κ (1 − δ)κ

(3.8.2)

For each , there is δ † () such that L (δ) ≥ 1 for all δ ∈ (δ † (), 1). Moreover, an application of l’Hôpital’s rule shows that 2

lim δ L (δ) = e− κ ,

δ→1

and hence lim lim δ L (δ) = 1.

→∞ δ→1

Consequently, for all η > 0, there exists and δ : N → (0, 1), δ () ≥ δ † () such that for all > and δ > δ (), 1 − η < δ L (δ) < 1. We typically suppress the dependence of L on and δ in our notation. j Denote the proﬁle minmaxing player j by αˆ −j , and suppose player j is to be minmaxed for L periods. Denote player i’s realized average payoff over these L periods by j

pi ≡

L 1 − δ τ −1 δ ui (a(τ )), 1 − δL τ =1

where a(τ ) is the realized action proﬁle in period τ . If the minmax actions are mixed, this average payoff is a random variable, depending on the particular sequence of actions realized in the course of minmaxing player j . Deﬁne j

zi ≡ j

j

1 − δL j pi . δL j

Like pi , zi depends on the realized history of play. Because pi is bounded by the smallest and largest stage-game payoff for player i, we can now choose 1 and δ1 : N → (0, 1), δ1 () ≥ δ † () for all , such that for all > 1 and δ > δ1 (), j δ L (δ) is sufﬁciently close to one that |zi | < ε/2, for all i and j and all realizations of the sequence of minmaxing actions. Deviations from minmax behavior outside the support of the minmax actions present no new difﬁculties because such deviations are detected. Deviations that only involve actions in the support, on the other hand, are not detected. Player j i is only willing to randomize according to the mixture αˆ i if he is indifferent over the pure actions in the support of the mixture. The technique is to specify j continuation play as a function of zi , following the L periods of punishment, to create the required indifference.

3.8

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103

Mixed-Action Individual Rationality

Deﬁne the payoff v (zj ) = (v1 +ε −z1 , . . . , vj −1 +ε −zj −1 , vj , vj +1 +ε −zj +1 , . . . , vn +ε −zn ). j

j

j

j

Given B2nε (v ) ⊂ F ∗ and our restriction that |zi | < ε/2, we know that Bε (v (zj )) ⊂ F ∗ and vi (zj ) − vi > 2nε. From lemma 3.7.2, there exists δ2 : N → (0, 1), δ2 () ≥ δ1 () for all , such that for any payoff v ∈ F † , there is a sequence of pure action proﬁles, a(v ), whose average discounted payoff is v and whose continuation payoff at any point is within 1/ of v . We now describe the strategies in terms of phases: j

Phase 0: Play a(v), Phase i, i = 1, . . . , n: Play L periods of αˆ i , followed by a(v (zi )). The equilibrium is speciﬁed by the following recursive rules for combining these phases. Play begins in phase 0 and remains there along the equilibrium path. Any unilateral deviation by player i causes play to switch to the beginning of phase i. Any unilateral deviation by player j = k while in phase k causes play to switch to the beginning of phase j . A deviation from a mixed strategy is interpreted throughout as a choice of an action outside the support of the mixture. Mixtures appear only in the ﬁrst L periods of phases 1, . . . , n, when one player is being minmaxed. Simultaneous deviations are ignored throughout. We now verify that for some sufﬁciently large and δ, for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), these strategies (which depend on δ through L (δ)) are an equilibrium. Consider ﬁrst phase 0. A sufﬁcient equilibrium condition for player i to not ﬁnd a deviation proﬁtable is that for i = 1, . . . , n 1 (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )vi + δ L+1 vi ≤ vi − , where the left side is an upper bound on the value of a deviation and the right side a lower bound on the equilibrium continuation value, with (from lemma 3.7.2) the −1/ term reﬂecting the maximum shortfall from the payoff vi of any continuation payoff in a(v). This inequality can be rearranged to give 1 (1 − δ)(M − vi ) ≤ δ(1 − δ L )(vi − vi ) + δ L+1 (vi − vi ) − .

(3.8.3)

From (3.8.1), if > 1/ε, (vi − vi ) − 1/ > 2ε − 1/ > ε > 0. Hence, there exists δ3 : N → (0, 1), δ3 () ≥ δ2 () for all , such that, for all > 1/ε and all δ ≥ δ3 (), δ L (δ) is sufﬁciently close to 1 that (3.8.3) is satisﬁed. Now consider phase j ≥ 1, and suppose at least L periods of this phase have already passed, so that play falls somewhere in the sequence a(v (zj )). If > 1 and δ > δ2 (), a sufﬁcient condition for player i to not ﬁnd a deviation proﬁtable is 1 (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )vi + δ L+1 vi ≤ vi − , with the −1/ term appearing on the right side because i’s continuation value j under a(v (zj )) must be within 1/ of vi (if i = j ) or within 1/ of vi + ε − zi

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The Folk Theorem

(otherwise), and hence must be at least vi − 1/. Using (3.8.2), a sufﬁcient condition for this inequality is (1 − δ)(M

− vi )

≤δ 1−δ

2 −1 (1−δ)κ

1 (vi − vi ) − .

(3.8.4)

We now note that as δ approaches 1, the right side converges to 2 1 1 − e− κ (vi − vi ) − .

(3.8.5)

Now, an application of l’Hôpital’s rule, and using κ ≤ vi − vi , shows that " ! 2 1 ≥ 1. lim 1 − e− κ (vi − vi ) − →∞ Fix η > 0 small. There exists 4 ≥ max{1 , 1/ε} such that for all > 4 , the expression in (3.8.5) is no smaller than (1 − η)/. Consequently, there exists δ4 : N → (0, 1), δ4 () ≥ δ3 () for all , such that (3.8.4) holds for all > 4 and δ > δ4 (). Now consider phase j ≥ 1, and suppose we are in the ﬁrst L periods, when player j is to be minmaxed. Player j has no incentive to deviate from the prescribed behavior and prompt the phase to start again, because j is earning j ’s minmax payoff and can do no better during each of the L periods, whereas subsequent play gives j a higher continuation payoff that does not depend on j ’s actions. Player i’s realized payoff while minmaxing player j is given by ! " 1 − δL j j L p (1 − δ L )pi + δ L vi + ε − i = δ (vi + ε), δL which is independent of the actions i takes while minmaxing j . A similar characterization applies to any subset of the L periods during which j is to be minmaxed. j Player i thus has no proﬁtable deviation that remains within the support of aˆ i . Suppose player i deviates outside this support. If > 1 and δ > δ1 (), a deviation in period τ ∈ {1, . . . , L} is unproﬁtable if (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )vi + δ L+1 vi ≤ (1 − δ L−τ +1 )ui (αˆ j ) + δ L−τ +1 (vi + ε/2) because vi (zj ) = vi + ε − zi > vi + ε/2. As δ L (and so δ L−τ +1 for all τ ) approaches 1, this inequality becomes vi ≤ vi + ε/2. Consequently, there exists 5 ≥ 4 and δ5 : N → (0, 1), δ5 () ≥ δ4 () for all , such that for all > 5 and δ > δ5 (), the above displayed inequality is satisﬁed. We now ﬁx a value > 5 and take δ = δ5 (). For any δ ∈ (δ, 1), letting L = L (δ) as deﬁned by (3.8.2) then gives a subgame-perfect equilibrium strategy proﬁle with the desired payoffs. j

■

4 How Long Is Forever?

4.1

Is the Horizon Ever Inﬁnite?

A common complaint about inﬁnitely repeated games is that very few relationships have truly inﬁnite horizons. Moreover, modeling a relationship as a seemingly more realistic ﬁnitely repeated game can make quite a difference. For example, in the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma, the only Nash equilibrium outcome plays SS in every period.1 Should we worry that important aspects of the results rest on unrealistic features of the model? In response, we can do no better than the following from Osborne and Rubinstein (1994, p. 135, emphasis in original): In our view a model should attempt to capture the features of reality that the players perceive . . . the fact that a situation has a horizon that is in some physical sense ﬁnite (or inﬁnite) does not necessarily imply that the best model of the situation has a ﬁnite (or inﬁnite) horizon. . . . If they play a game so frequently that the horizon approaches only very slowly then they may ignore the existence of the horizon entirely until its arrival is imminent, and until this point their strategic thinking may be better captured by a game with an inﬁnite horizon. The key consideration in evaluating a model is not whether it is a literal description of the strategic interaction of interest, nor whether it captures the behavior of perfectly rational players in the actual strategic interaction. Rather, the question is whether the model captures the behavior we observe in the situation of interest. For example, ﬁnitehorizon models predict that ﬁat money should be worthless. Because its value stems only from its ability to purchase consumption goods in the future, it will be worthless in the ﬁnal period of the economy. A standard backward-induction argument then allows us to conclude that it will be worthless in the penultimate period, and the one before that, and so on. Nonetheless, most people are willing to accept money, even those who argue that there is no such thing as an interaction with an inﬁnite horizon. The point 1. A standard backward induction argument shows that SS in every period is the only subgameperfect outcome, because the stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium. The stronger conclusion that this is the only Nash equilibrium outcome follows from the observation that the stagegame Nash equilibrium yields each player his minmax utility. This latter property ensures that “incredible threats” (i.e., a non-Nash continuations) cannot yield payoffs below those of the stage-game Nash equilibrium, precluding the use of future play to create incentives for choosing any current actions other than the stage-game Nash equilibrium.

105

106

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■

How Long Is Forever?

is that whether ﬁnite or inﬁnite, the end of the horizon is sufﬁciently distant that it does not enter people’s strategic calculations. Inﬁnite-horizon models may then be an unrealistic literal description of the world but a useful model of how people behave in that world.

4.2

Uncertain Horizons

An alternative interpretation of inﬁnitely repeated games begins by interpreting players’ preferences for early payoffs as arising out of the possibility that the game may end before later payoffs can be collected. Suppose that in each period t, the game ends with probability 1 − δ > 0, and continues with probability δ > 0. Players maximize the sum of realized payoffs (normalized by 1 − δ). Player i’s expected payoff is then (1 − δ)

∞

δ t ui (a t ).

t=0

Because the probability that the game reaches period t is δ t , and δ t → 0 as t → ∞, the game has a ﬁnite horizon with probability 1. However, once the players have reached any period t, they assign probability δ to play continuing, allowing intertemporal incentives to be maintained despite the certainty of a ﬁnite termination. Viewing the horizon as uncertain in this way allows the model to capture some seemingly realistic features. One readily imagines knowing that a relationship will not last forever, while at the same time never being certain of when it will end. Observe, however, that under this interpretation the distribution over possible lengths of the game has unbounded support. One does not have to believe that the game will last forever but must believe that it could last an arbitrarily long time. Moreover, the hazard rate is constant. No matter how old the relationship is, the expected number of additional periods before the relationship ends is unchanged. The potential for the relationship’s lasting forever has thus been disguised but not eliminated. If the stage game has more than one Nash equilibrium, then intertemporal incentives can be constructed even without the inﬁnite-repetition possibility embedded in a constant continuation probability. Indeed, as we saw in the discussion of the game in ﬁgure 1.1.1 and return to in section 4.4, the prospect of future play can have an effect even if the continuation probability falls to 0 after the second period, that is, even if the game is played only twice. However, if the stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium, such as the prisoners’ dilemma, then the possibility of an inﬁnite horizon is crucial for constructing intertemporal incentives. To see this, suppose that the horizon may be uncertain, but it is commonly known that the game will certainly end no later than after T + 1 periods (where T is some possibly very large but ﬁnite number). Then we again face a backward-induction argument. The game may not last so long, but should period T ever be reached, the players will know it is the ﬁnal period, and there is only one possible equilibrium action proﬁle. Hence, if the game reaches period T − 1, the players will know that their current behavior has no effect on the future, either because the game ends and there is no future play or because the game continues for (only) one more round of play, in which case the unique stage-game Nash equilibrium again

4.3

■

107

Declining Discount Factors

appears. The argument continues, allowing us to conclude that only the stage-game Nash equilibrium can appear in any period. The assumption in the last paragraph that it is commonly known that the game will end by some T is critical. Suppose for example, that although both players know the game must end by period T , player 1 does not know that player 2 knows this. In that case, if period T − 1 were to be reached, player 1 may now place signiﬁcant probability on player 2 not knowing that the next period is the last possible period, and so 1 may exert effort rather than shirk. This argument can be extended, so that even if both players know the game will end by T , and both players know that both know, if it is not commonly known (i.e., at some level of iteration, statements of the form “i knows that j knows that i knows . . . that the game will end by T ” fails), then it may be possible to support effort in the repeated prisoners’ dilemma (see Neyman 1999). To do so, however, requires that, for any arbitrarily large T , player i believes that j believes that i believes . . . that the game could last longer than T periods. In the presence of a unique stage-game Nash equilibrium, nontrivial outcomes in the repeated game thus hinge on at least the possibility of an inﬁnite horizon. However, one might then seek to soften the role of the inﬁnite horizon by allowing the continuation probability to decline as the game is played. We may never be certain that a particular period will be the last but may think it more likely to be the last if the game has already continued for a long time. In the next section, we construct nontrivial intertemporal incentives for stage games with a unique Nash equilibrium, when the continuation probability (discount factor) converges to 0, as long as the rate at which this occurs is not too fast.

4.3

Declining Discount Factors

Suppose players share a sequence of one-period discount factors {δt }∞ t=0 , where δt is the rate applied to period t + 1 payoffs in period t. Hence, payoffs in period t are discounted to the beginning of the game at rate t−1

δτ .

τ =0

We can interpret these discount factors as representing either time preferences or uncertainty as to the length of the game. In the latter case, δτ is the probability that play continues to period τ + 1, conditional on play having reached period τ . We are interested in the case where limτ →∞ δτ = 0. In terms of continuation probabilities, this implies that as τ gets large, the game ends after the current period with probability approaching 1. One natural measure for evaluating payoffs is the average discounted value of the payoff stream {uti }∞ t=0 , ∞

t−1 δτ (1 − δt )uti , t=0

τ =0

where −1 τ =0 δτ ≡ 1. When the discount factor is constant, this coincides with the average discounted value. However, unlike with a constant discount factor, the

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How Long Is Forever?

implied intertemporal preferences are different from the preferences without averaging, given by ∞

t−1 δτ uti . τ =0

t=0

We view the unnormalized payoffs uti as the true payoffs and, because the factor (1 − δt ) is here not simply a normalization, we work without it. We assume the players do discount, in the sense that ∞

t−1 τ =0

t=0

δτ ≡ < ∞.

(4.3.1)

When (4.3.1) is satisﬁed, a constant payoff stream uti = ui for all t has a well-deﬁned value in the repeated game, ui . Condition (4.3.1) is trivially satisﬁed if δt → 0. Our interest in the case limτ →0 δτ = 0 imposes some limitations. Intuitively, intertemporal incentives work whenever the myopic incentive to deviate is less than the size of the discounted future cost incurred by the deviation. For small δ, the intertemporal incentives are necessarily weak, and so can only work if the myopic incentive to deviate is also small, such as would arise for action proﬁles close to a stage-game Nash equilibrium. The most natural setting for considering weak myopic incentives to deviate is found in inﬁnite games, such as the oligopoly example of section 2.6.2. Assumption Each player’s action space Ai is an interval [ai , a¯ i ] ⊂ R. The stage game has

4.3.1 a Nash equilibrium proﬁle a N contained in the interior of the set of action proﬁles A. Each payoff function ui is twice continuously differentiable in a and strictly quasi-concave in ai , and each player’s best reply function φi : −i Aj → Ai is continuously differentiable in a neighborhood of a N .2 The Jacobian matrix of partial derivatives Du(a N ) has full rank. This assumption is satisﬁed, for example, in the oligopoly model of section 2.6.2, with an upper bound on quantities of output so as to make the strategy sets compact. We now describe, following Bernheim and Dasgupta (1995), how to construct nontrivial intertemporal incentives. Though the discount factors can converge to 0, intertemporal incentives require that this not occur too quickly. We assume that there exist constants c, > 0 such that, τ

−1

δk2

τ −1−k

τ

≥ c 2 , ∀τ ≥ 1.

(4.3.2)

k=0

This condition holds for a constant discount factor δ (take c = 1/δ and = δ). By taking logs and rearranging, (4.3.2) can be seen to be equivalent to τ −1 1 ln δk > −∞, τ →∞ 2k+1

lim

(4.3.3)

k=0

implying that 2k must grow faster than | ln δk | (if δk → 0, then ln δk → −∞). 2. Because ui is assumed strictly quasi-concave in ai , φi (a−i ) ≡ arg maxai ui (ai , a−i ) is unique, for all a−i .

4.3

■

109

Declining Discount Factors

Proposition Suppose {δk }∞ k=0 is a sequence of discount factors satisfying (4.3.1) and (4.3.2),

4.3.1 but possibly converging to 0. There exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game in which in every period, every player receives a higher payoff than that produced by playing the (possibly unique) stage-game Nash equilibrium, a N . Proof Because Du(a N ) has full rank, and a N is interior, there exists a constant η > 0, a

vector z ∈ RN and an ε > 0 such that, for all ε < ε and all i, ui (a N + εz) − ui (a N ) ≥ ηε.

(4.3.4)

Letting udi (a) denote player i’s maximal deviation payoff, udi (a) = max ui (ai , a−i ), ai ∈Ai

N ), a N ). Because ∂u (a N )/∂a = 0, we have udi (a N ) = ui (φi (a−i i i i −i N ), a N ) ∂φ (a N ) N ), a N ) ∂ui (φi (a−i ∂ui (φi (a−i ∂udi (a N ) i −i −i −i = + ∂aj ∂ai ∂aj ∂aj

=

N ), a N ) ∂ui (φi (a−i −i

∂aj

=

∂ui (a N ) . ∂aj

(This is an instance of the envelope theorem.) By Taylor’s formula, there exists a β > 0 and ε such that, for all i and ε < ε , udi (a N + εz)−ui (a N + εz) ≤ udi (a N ) − ui (a N ) + ε

n j =1

= βε . 2

# zj

∂udi (a N ) ∂ui (a N ) − ∂aj ∂aj

$ + ε2 β (4.3.5)

In the oligopoly example of section 2.6.2, this is the observation that the payoff increment from the optimal deviation from proposed output levels, as a function of those levels, has a zero slope at the stage-game Nash equilibrium (in ﬁgure 2.6.1, µd is tangential to µ at q = a N ). As we have noted, this is an envelope theorem result. The most one can gain by deviating from the stage-game equilibrium strategies is 0, and the most one can gain by deviating from nearby strategies is nearly 0. Summarizing, moving actions away from the stage-game Nash equilibrium in the direction z yields ﬁrst-order payoff gains (4.3.4) while prompting only secondorder increases in the temptation to defect (4.3.5). This suggests that the threat of Nash reversion should support the non-Nash candidate actions as an equilibrium, if these actions are sufﬁciently close to the Nash proﬁle. The discount factor will determine the effectiveness of the threat, and so how close the candidate actions must be to the Nash point. As the discount factor gets lower, the punishment becomes relatively less severe. As a result, the proposed actions may have to move closer to the stage-game equilibrium to reinforce the weight of the punishment compared to the temptation of a deviation.

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Chapter 4

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How Long Is Forever?

Consider, then, the following strategies. We construct a sequence εt for t = 0, . . . , and let the period t equilibrium outputs be a N + εt z, with any deviation prompting Nash reversion (i.e., subsequent, permanent play of a N ). These strategies will be an equilibrium if every εt is less than min{ε , ε } and if, for all t, βεt2 ≤ δt ηεt+1 .

(4.3.6)

The left side of this inequality is an upper bound on the immediate payoff gain produced by deviating from the proposed equilibrium sequence, and the right side is a lower bound on the discounted value of next period’s payoff loss from reverting to Nash equilibrium play. To establish the existence of an equilibrium, we then need only verify that we can construct a sequence {εt }∞ t=0 satisfying (4.3.6) while remaining below the bounds ε and ε for which (4.3.4) and (4.3.5) hold. To do this, ﬁx ε0 and recursively deﬁne a sequence {εt }∞ t=0 by setting εt+1 =

βεt2 . ηδt

This leads to the sequence, for t ≥ 1, # t−1 $−1 2t −1

t−1−k β 2t 2 (ε0 ) δk . εt = η k=0

By construction, this sequence satisﬁes (4.3.6). We need only verify that the sequence can be constructed so that no term exceeds min{ε , ε }. To do this, notice that, from (4.3.2), we have, for all t ≥ 1, t η β ε0 2 εt ≤ . βc η It now remains only to choose ε0 sufﬁciently small that ε0 < min{ε , ε }, that βε02 /[ηc 2 ] < min{ε , ε } (ensuring ε1 < min{ε , ε }), and that βε0 /η ≤ 1 (so that εt+1 ≤ εt for t ≥ 1). ■

It is important to note that the above result covers the case where the stage game has a unique equilibrium. Multiple stage game equilibria only make it easier to construct nontrivial intertemporal incentives. Bernheim and Dasgupta (1995) provide conditions under which (4.3.3) is necessary as well as sufﬁcient for there to exist any subgame-perfect equilibrium other than the continuous play of a unique stage-game Nash equilibrium. This necessity result is not intuitively obvious. The optimality condition given by (4.3.6) assumes that deviations are punished by Nash reversion and makes use only of the ﬁrst period of such a punishment when verifying the optimality of equilibrium behavior. Observe, however, that as the discount factors tend to 0, eventually all punishments are effectively single-period punishments. From the viewpoint of period t, period t + 1 is discounted

4.3

■

111

Declining Discount Factors

at rate δt , and period t + 2 is discounted at rate δt δt+1 . Because lim

t→∞

δt δt+1 = lim δt+1 = 0, t→∞ δt

it is eventually the case that any payoffs occurring two periods in the future are discounted arbitrarily heavily compared to next period’s payoffs, ensuring that effectively only the next period matters in any punishment. There may well be more severe punishments than Nash reversion, and much of the proof of the necessity of (4.3.3) is concerned with such punishments. The intuition is straightforward. Equation (4.3.6) is the optimality condition for punishments by Nash reversion. The prospect of a more serious punishment allows us to replace (4.3.6) with a counterpart that has a larger penalty on the right side. But if (4.3.6) holds for some η and this large penalty, then it must also hold for some larger value η and the penalty of Nash reversion (then proportionately reducing both η and β, if needed, so that (4.3.4) and (4.3.5) hold). In a sense, the Nash reversion and optimal punishment cases differ only by a constant. Translating (4.3.3) into the equivalent (4.3.2), the existence of nontrivial subgame-perfect equilibria based on either Nash reversion or optimal punishments both imply the existence of a (possibly different) constant for which (4.3.2) holds. This result shows that nontrivial subgame-perfect equilibria can be supported with discount factors that decline to 0. However, it only establishes that we can support some equilibrium path of outcomes that does not always coincide with the stage-game Nash equilibrium, leaving open the possibility that the equilibrium path is very close to continual play of the stage-game Nash equilibrium. We can apply the insights from ﬁnitely repeated games (discussed in the next section) to construct additional equilibria that are “far” from the Nash equilibrium, as long as there is an initial sequence of sufﬁciently large discount factors. Proposition Suppose the set of feasible payoffs F has full dimension and {δ˜t }∞ t=0 is a sequence

4.3.2 of discount factors satisfying (4.3.1) and (4.3.2). Suppose the action proﬁle a is strictly individually rational with u(a) in the interior of F . Then there exist a δ¯ ∈ (0, 1) and an integer T ∗ such that for all T ≥ T ∗ , if δt ≥ δ¯ for all t ≤ T and δt ≥ δ˜t−T −1 for all t > T , then there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium ∗ of the game with discount factors {δt }∞ t=0 in which a is played in the ﬁrst T − T periods. ¯ where δt ≥ δ¯ > δ˜0 for all t ≤ T Proof Consider a repeated game characterized by (T , δ),

and δt ≥ δ˜t−T −1 for all t ≥ T + 1. The subgame beginning in period T + 1 of the repeated game has (at least) two subgame-perfect equilibria, the inﬁnite repetition of a N and an equilibrium σ from proposition 4.3.1 with payoffs v¯ satisfying v¯i > ui (a N ) for all i (recall (4.3.1)). ¯ − Let a¯ be the action proﬁle in the ﬁrst period of σ , and note that mini ui (a) ui (a N ) > 0. Suppose u(a) strictly dominates u(a N ), and deﬁne ε ≡ min{ui (a) − ∗ ¯ − ui (a N )} > 0. For T ∗ < T , let σ T be the proﬁle that speciﬁes ui (a N ), ui (a) a in every period t < T − T ∗ , a¯ in periods T − T ∗ ≤ t ≤ T , and then σ as the continuation proﬁle in period T + 1. A deviation in any period results in Nash reversion. Because δt ≥ δ˜0 for t ≤ T , and σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of

112

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How Long Is Forever?

the subgame beginning in period T + 1, no player wishes to deviate in any period t ≥ T − T ∗ . If player i deviates in a period t < T − T ∗ , there is a one-period gain of udi (a) − ui (a), which must be compared to the ﬂow losses of ui (a) − ¯ − ui (a N ) ≥ ε in periods ui (a N ) ≥ ε in periods t + 1, . . . , T − T ∗ − 1, and ui (a) ∗ T − T , . . . , T , as well as the continuation value loss of v¯i − ui (a N ) > 0 in period T + 1. By choosing T ∗ large enough and δ¯ close enough to 1, the discounted value of a loss of at least ε for at least T ∗ periods dominates the one-period gain. Constructing equilibria for a with payoffs that do not strictly dominate u(a N ) is more complicated and is accomplished using the techniques of Benoit and Krishna (1985), discussed in section 4.4. ■

These results depend on the assumption that the stage-game strategy sets are compact intervals of the reals, rather than ﬁnite, so that actions can eventually become arbitrarily close to stage-game Nash equilibrium actions. They do not hold for ﬁnite stage games. In particular, if the stage game is ﬁnite, then there is a lower bound on the amount that can be gained by at least some player by deviating from any pure-strategy outcome that is not a Nash equilibrium. As a result, if the stage-game has a unique strict Nash equilibrium, then when discount factors decline to 0, the only subgame-perfect equilibria of the repeated game will feature perpetual play of the stage-game Nash equilibrium.

4.4

Finitely Repeated Games

This section shows that the unique equilibrium of the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma is not typical of ﬁnitely repeated games in general. The discussion of ﬁgure 1.1.1 provides a preview of the results presented here. If the stage game has multiple Nash equilibrium payoffs, then it is possible to construct effective intertemporal incentives. Consequently, sufﬁciently long but ﬁnitely repeated games feature sets of equilibrium payoffs very much like those of inﬁnitely repeated games. In contrast, a straightforward backward-induction argument shows that the only subgameperfect equilibrium of a ﬁnitely repeated stage game with a unique stage-game Nash equilibrium has this equilibrium action proﬁle played in every period. We assume that players in the ﬁnitely repeated game maximize average payoffs over the ﬁnite horizon, that is, if the stage game characterized by payoff function u : i Ai → Rn is played T times, then the payoff to player i from the outcome (a 0 , a 1 , . . . , a T −1 ) is T −1 1 ui (a t ). T

(4.4.1)

t=0

It is perhaps more natural to retain the discount factor δ, and use the discounted ﬁnite sum T −1 1−δ t δ ui (a t ) 1 − δT t=0

(4.4.2)

4.4

■

113

Finitely Repeated Games

A

B

C

A

4, 4

0, 0

0, 0

B

0, 0

3, 1

0, 0

C

2, 2

0, 0

1, 3

Figure 4.4.1 The game for example 4.4.1. The game has three strict Nash equilibria, AA, BB, and CC.

as the T period payoff. However, this payoff converges to the average given by (4.4.1) as δ → 1, and it is simpler to work with (4.4.1) and concentrate on the limit as T gets large than to work with (4.4.2) and the limits as both T gets large and δ gets sufﬁciently close to 1. One difﬁculty in working with ﬁnitely repeated games is that they obviously do not have the same recursive structure as inﬁnitely repeated games. The horizons of the continuation subgame become shorter after longer histories. We begin with an example to illustrate that even in some short games, it can be easy to construct player-speciﬁc punishments. Example The stage game is given in ﬁgure 4.4.1. The two action proﬁles BB and CC are

4.4.1 player speciﬁc punishments, in the sense that BB minimizes player 2’s payoffs over the Nash equilibria of the stage game, and CC does for player 1. If the game is played twice, then it is possible to support the proﬁle CA in the ﬁrst period in a subgame-perfect equilibrium: If CA is played in the ﬁrst period, play AA in the second period; if AA is played in the ﬁrst period (i.e., 1 deviated to A), play CC in the second; if CC is played in the ﬁrst period (i.e., 2 deviated to C), play BB in the second; and after all other ﬁrst-period action proﬁles, play AA in the second period. The second-period Nash equilibrium speciﬁed by this proﬁle depends on the identity of the ﬁrst period deviator. If the game is played T times, then the proﬁle can be extended, maintaining subgame perfection, so that CA is played in the ﬁrst T − 1 periods, with any unilateral deviation by player i being immediately followed by CC if i = 1 and BB if i = 2 till the end of the game. It is important for this proﬁle that CA yields higher payoffs to both players than their respective punishing Nash equilibria of the stage game. If the payoff proﬁle from CA were (0, 0) rather than (2, 2), then player 1, for example, prefers to trigger the punishment (which gives him 1 in each period) than to play CA (which gives him 0).3 Finally, note that the “rewarding” Nash proﬁle of AA is not needed. Suppose the payoff proﬁle from AA were (3, −2) rather than (4, 4). Player 1 still has a 3. When the payoff to CA is (0, 0), player 1 prefers the outcome CA, CA, AA, AA to the outcome AA, CC, CC, CC. For T = 3, 4, it is easily seen that there is then a subgame-perfect equilibrium with AA played in the last two periods and CA played in the ﬁrst one or two periods.

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myopic incentive to play A rather than C, when 2 is playing A. Because AA is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, it cannot be used in the last periods to reward players for playing CA in earlier periods. However, observe that each player prefers an outcome that alternates between BB and CC to perpetual play of their punishment proﬁle. Hence, for T = 3, the following proﬁle is a subgameperfect equilibrium: Play CA in the ﬁrst period; if CA is played in the ﬁrst period, play BB in the second period and CC in the third period; if AA is played in the ﬁrst period, play CC in the second and third periods; if CC is played in the ﬁrst period, play BB in the second and third periods; and after all other ﬁrst-period action proﬁles, play BB in the second period and CC in the third period. ●

Let N be set of Nash equilibria of the stage game. For each player i, deﬁne wi ≡ min {ui (α)}, α∈N

player i’s worst Nash equilibrium payoff in the stage game. We ﬁrst state and prove a Nash-reversion folk theorem, due to Friedman (1985). Proposition Suppose there exists a payoff v ∈ co(N ) with wi < vi for all i. For all a ∗ ∈ A

4.4.1 satisfying ui (a ∗ ) > wi for all i, for any ε > 0, there exists Tε such that for every T > Tε , the T period repeated game has a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs within ε of u(a ∗ ).

Proof Because the inequality wi < vi is strict, there exists a rational convex combination

of Nash equilibria, v˜ ∈ co(N ), with v˜i > wi . That is, there are m equilibria {α k ∈ N : k = 1, . . . , m} and m positive integers, {λk }, such that, for all i, 1 k λ ui (α k ), L m

wi < v˜i =

k=1

∗ )− where L = λk . Set η ≡ mini v˜i − wi > 0, and ≡ maxi,ai |ui (ai , a−i ∗ ∗ ∗ ui (a )| ≥ 0. Let t be the smallest multiple of L larger than /η, so that t = L for some positive integer , and consider games of length T at least t ∗ . The strategy proﬁle speciﬁes a ∗ in the ﬁrst T − t ∗ periods, provided that there has been no deviation from such behavior. In periods T − t ∗ , . . . , T , the equilibrium α k is played λk times (the order is irrelevant because payoffs are averaged). After the ﬁrst unilateral deviation by player i, the stage-game equilibrium yielding payoffs wi is played in every subsequent period. It is straightforward to verify that this is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Finally, by choosing T sufﬁciently large, the payoffs from the ﬁrst T − t ∗ periods will dominate. There is then a length Tε such that for any T > Tε , the payoffs from the constructed equilibrium strategy proﬁle are within ε of u(a ∗ ).

■

This construction uses the ability to switch between stage-game Nash equilibria near the end of the game to create incentives supporting a target action proﬁle a ∗ in earlier periods that is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game. As we discussed in

4.4

■

115

Finitely Repeated Games

A

B

C

D

A

4, 4

0, 0

18, 0

1, 1

B

0, 0

6, 6

0, 0

1, 1

C

0, 18

0, 0

13, 13

1, 1

D

1, 1

1, 1

1, 1

0, 0

Figure 4.4.2 A game with repeated-game payoffs below 4.

example 4.4.1, it is essential for this construction that for each player i, there exists a Nash equilibrium of the stage game giving i a lower payoff than does the target action a ∗ . If this were not the case, players would be eager to trigger the punishments supposedly providing the incentives to play a ∗ . With somewhat more complicated strategies, we can construct equilibria of a repeated game with payoffs lower than the payoffs in any stage-game Nash equilibrium. Example In the stage game of ﬁgure 4.4.2, there are two stage-game Nash equilibria, AA

4.4.2 and BB. The lowest payoff in any stage-game pure-strategy Nash equilibrium is 4. Suppose this game is played twice. There is an equilibrium with an average payoff of 3 for each player: Play DD in the ﬁrst period, followed by BB in the second, and after any deviation play AA in the second period. We can now use this two-period equilibrium to support outcomes in the threeperiod game. Observe ﬁrst that in the three-period game, CC cannot be supported in the ﬁrst period using the threat of two periods of AA rather than two periods of BB, because the myopic incentive to deviate is 5, and the total size of the punishment is 4 (to get the repeated-game payoffs, divide everything by 3). On the other hand, we can support CC in the three-period game as follows: The equilibrium outcome is (CC, BB, BB); after any ﬁrst period proﬁle a 0 = CC, play the two-period equilibrium outcome (DD, BB). ●

If aˆ is a subgame-perfect outcome path of the Tˆ period game, and a˜ is a subgameperfect outcome path of the T˜ period game, then by “restarting” the game after the ﬁrst Tˆ periods, it is clear that aˆ a˜ is a subgame-perfect outcome path of the Tˆ + T˜ period game. Hence, i’s worst punishment (equilibrium) payoff in the Tˆ + T˜ period game is at least as low as the average of his punishment payoffs in the Tˆ period game and the T˜ period game. Typically, it will be strictly lower. In example 4.4.2, the worst twoperiod punishment (with outcome path (DD, BB)) is strictly worse than the repetition of the worst one-period punishment (of AA). This subadditivity allows us to construct equilibria with increasingly severe punishments as the length of the game increases, in turn allowing us to achieve larger sets of equilibrium payoffs. Benoit and Krishna (1985) prove the following proposition.

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Proposition Suppose for every player i, there is a stage-game Nash equilibrium α i such that

4.4.2 ui (α i ) > wi , and that F ∗ has full dimension. Then for any payoff vector v ∈ F †p and any ε > 0, there exists T ∗ such that, for all T ≥ T ∗ , there exists a perfect equilibrium path (a 0 , a 1 , . . . , a T −1 ) with % T −1 % %1 % % % t u(a ) − v % < ε. % %T % t=0

We omit the involved proof, conﬁning ourselves to some comments and an example. The full-dimensionality assumption appears for the same reason as it does in the case of inﬁnitely repeated games. It allows us the freedom to construct punishments that treat players differently. The key insight is Benoit and Krishna’s (1985) lemma 3.5. This lemma essentially demonstrates that given punishments in a T period game, for sufﬁciently larger T , it is possible to construct for each player a punishment with a lower average payoff. The punishment shares some similarities to those used in the proof of proposition 3.4.1 and uses three phases. In the ﬁrst phase of player i’s punishment, player i is pure-action minmaxed.4 In the second phase, players j = i are rewarded (relative to the T period punishments that could be imposed) for minmaxing i during the ﬁrst phase, whereas i is held to his T period punishment level. Finally, in the last phase, stage-game Nash equilibria are played, so that the average payoff in this phase exceeds wi for all i. This last phase is chosen sufﬁciently long that no player has an incentive to deviate in the second phase. The lengths of the ﬁrst two phases are simultaneously determined to maintain the remaining incentives, and to ensure that i’s average payoff over the three phases is less than his T -period punishment. Example As in the inﬁnitely repeated game (see section 3.3), the ability to mutually min-

4.4.3 max in the two-player case can allow a more transparent approach. We illustrate taking advantage of the particular structure of the game in ﬁgure 4.4.2. The pure (and mixed) minmax payoff for this game is 1 for each player, with proﬁle DD minmaxing each player. We deﬁne a player 1 punishment lasting T periods, for any T ≥ 0. This punishment gives player 1 a payoff very close to his minmax level (for large T ) while using mutual minmaxing behavior to sustain the optimality of the behavior producing this punishment payoff. First, we deﬁne the outcome for the punishment. Fix Q and S, satisfying conditions to be determined. First, for any T > Q + S, deﬁne the outcome path a(T ) ≡ (DD, DD, . . . , DD, AD, AD, . . . , AD, BB, BB, . . . , BB). Q times

T −Q−S times

S times

For T satisfying S < T ≤ Q + S, deﬁne a(T ) ≡ (DD, DD, . . . , DD, BB, BB, . . . , BB), T −S times

S times

4. It seems difﬁcult (if not impossible) to replicate the arguments from section 3.8, extending the analysis to mixed minmax payoffs, for the ﬁnite horizon case. However, there is a mixed minmax folk theorem (proved using different techniques), see Gossner (1995).

4.4

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117

Finitely Repeated Games

and for T ≤ S, a(T ) ≡ (BB, BB, . . . , BB). T times

Observe that for large T , most of the periods involve action proﬁle AD and hence player 1’s minmax payoff of 1. This will play a key role in allowing us to push the average player 1 payoff over the course of the punishment close to the minmax payoff of 1. We must specify a punishment for all values of T , not simply large values of T , because the shorter punishments will play a role in ensuring that we can obtain the longer punishment outcomes as outcomes of equilibrium strategies. We now describe a strategy proﬁle σ T with outcome path a(T ), and then provide conditions on Q and S that guarantee that σ T is subgame perfect. We proceed recursively, as a function of T . Suppose ﬁrst that T ≤ S. Because the punishment outcome a(T ) speciﬁes a stage-game Nash equilibrium in each of the last T periods for any T ≤ S, no player has a myopic incentive to deviate. The strategy σ T then ignores all deviations, specifying BB after every history. For T satisfying S < T ≤ 2Q + S, σ T speciﬁes that after the ﬁrst unilateral deviation from a(T ) in a period t ≤ T − S − 1, AA is played in every subsequent period (with further deviations ignored). Deviations from the stage-game action proﬁle in the ﬁnal S periods are ignored. For T > 2Q + S, any unilateral deviation from a(T ) in any period t results in the continuation proﬁle σ T −t−1 . The critical feature of this proﬁle is that for short horizons, a switch from BB to AA provides incentives. For longer horizons, however, the incentive to carry on with the punishment is provided by the fact that a deviation triggers Q new periods of mutual minmax. In an inﬁnite horizon game, this would be the only punishment needed. In a ﬁnite horizon, we cannot continue with the threat of Q new periods of minmaxing forever, and so the use of this threat early in the game must be coupled with a transition to other threats in later periods. In establishing conditions under which these strategies constitute an equilibrium, it is important that both players’ payoffs under the outcome a(T ) are identical, and that under the candidate proﬁle, player 2’s incentives to deviate are always at least as large as those of player 1. These properties appear because the stage game features the action proﬁle AD, under which both players earn their minmax payoffs (though this is not a mutual-minmax action proﬁle). For S < T ≤ Q + S, the most proﬁtable deviation is in the ﬁrst period, and this is not proﬁtable if 1 + (T − 1)4 ≤ 6S, that is, if 4T − 3 ≤ 6S. The constraint is most severe if T = Q + S, and so the deviation is not proﬁtable if 4Q − 3 ≤ 2S. Suppose Q + S < T ≤ 2Q + S. There are two classes of deviations we need to worry about, deviations in the ﬁrst Q periods, and those after the ﬁrst Q periods but before the last S periods. The most proﬁtable deviation in the ﬁrst class occurs in the ﬁrst period, and is not proﬁtable if (where R = T − Q − S), 1 + (Q − 1 + R + S)4 ≤ R + 6S. This constraint is most severe when R = Q, and so is satisﬁed if 7Q − 3 ≤ 2S. Because the payoff from AD is less than that of AA, the most proﬁtable deviation in the second class is in period Q + 1, and is not proﬁtable if (because player 2 has the greater incentive to deviate)

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4 + (R − 1 + S)4 ≤ R + 6S, which is most severe when R = Q. For Q ≥ 1, this constraint is implied by 7Q − 3 ≤ 2S. Suppose now T > 2Q + S. Observe ﬁrst that deviating in a period t ≤ Q results in the deviator being minmaxed, and so at best reorders payoffs, but brings no increase. The only remaining deviations are from AD by player 2, and the most proﬁtable is in period Q + 1. Such a deviation yields a total payoff of 4 + Q × 0 + (R − 1 − Q) × 1 + 6S, whereas the total payoff from not deviating is R × 1 + 6S. The deviation is not proﬁtable if 4 + (R − 1 − Q) + 6S ≤ R + 6S, that is, 3 ≤ Q. Hence, if Q ≥ 3 and S ≥ (7Q − 3)/2, the strategy proﬁle σ T is a subgameperfect equilibrium for any T . We can then ﬁx Q and S and, by choosing T sufﬁciently large, make player 1’s punishment payoff arbitrarily close to 1. The same can be done for player 2. These punishments can then be used to construct equilibria sustaining any strictly individually rational outcome path, in a ﬁnitely repeated game of sufﬁcient length. ●

4.5

Approximate Equilibria

We have noted that the sole Nash equilibrium of the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’dilemma features mutual shirking in every period. For example, there is no Nash-equilibrium outcome in which both players exert effort in every period, because it is a superior response to exert effort until the last period and then shirk. However, this opportunity to shirk may have a tiny impact on payoffs compared to the total stakes of the game. What if we weakened our equilibrium concept by asking only for approximate best responses? Let h be a history and let σ h be the strategy proﬁle σ modiﬁed at (only) histories preceding h to ensure that σ h generates history h. Notice that σ |h is the continuation strategy induced by σ and history h, which may or may not appear under strategy σ , while σ h is a potentially different strategy, in the original game, under which history h certainly occurs. The strategies σ |h and σ h |h are identical. Definition A strategy proﬁle σˆ is an ε-Nash equilibrium if, for each player i and strategy σi ,

4.5.1 we have Ui (σˆ ) ≥ Ui (σi , σˆ −i ) − ε. A strategy proﬁle σˆ is an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium if, for each player i, history h and strategy σi , we have h ) − ε. Ui (σˆ h ) ≥ Ui (σih , σˆ −i

If we set ε = 0 in the ﬁrst deﬁnition, we have the deﬁnition of a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. Setting ε equal to 0 in the second gives the deﬁnition of subgame perfection. Any ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium must be an ε-Nash equilibrium.

4.5

■

Approximate Equilibria

119

Example Consider the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 1.2.1, with horizon T

T −1 4.5.1 and payoffs evaluated according to the average-payoff criterion T1 t=0 u(a t ). For every ε > 0, there is a ﬁnite Tε such that for every T ≥ Tε , there is an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium in which the players exert effort in every period (Radner 1980).5 The veriﬁcation of this statement is a simple calculation. Let the equilibrium strategies be given by grim trigger, prescribing effort after every history featuring no shirking and prescribing shirking otherwise. The best response to such a strategy is to exert effort until the ﬁnal period and then shirk. The equilibrium strategy is then an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium if 2 ≥ T1 [2(T − 1) + 3] − ε, or T1 ≤ ε. For any ε, the proposed strategies are thus an ε-equilibrium in any game of length at least Tε = 1/ε. ●

Consistent mutual effort is an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium because the ﬁnal-period deviation to shirking generates a payoff increment that averaged over Tε periods is less than ε. If ε = 0, of course, then the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma admits only shirking as a Nash-equilibrium outcome. These statements are reconciled by noting the order of the quantiﬁers in example 4.5.1. If we ﬁx the length of the game T , then, for sufﬁciently small values of ε, the only ε-Nash equilibrium calls for universal shirking. However, for any ﬁxed value of ε, we can ﬁnd a value of T sufﬁciently large as to support effort as an ε-equilibrium. Remark The payoff increment to ﬁnal-period shirking may be small in the context of a T

4.5.1 period average, but may also loom large in the ﬁnal period. A strategy proﬁle σ ∗ is a contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium if, for each player i, history h and ∗ | ) − ε. A contemporaneous perfect strategy σi , we have Ui (σ ∗ |h ) ≥ Ui (σi |h , σ−i h ∗h ε-equilibrium thus evaluates the strategy σ not in the original game but in the continuation game induced by h.6 Radner (1980) shows that for every ε > 0, there is a ﬁnite Tε such that there is a contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium of the T -period prisoners’ dilemma with −1 u(a t ), for any T ≥ Tε , in which players the average-payoff criterion T1 Tt=0 exert effort in all but the ﬁnal Tε periods. As T increases, we can thus sustain effort for an arbitrarily large proportion of the periods. The strategies prescribe effort in the initial period and effort in every subsequent period that is preceded by no shirking and that occurs no later than period T − Tε − 1 (for some Tε to be determined), with shirking otherwise. The best response to such a strategy exerts effort through period T − Tε − 2 and then shirks. The proﬁle is a contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium if 2/(Tε + 1) ≥ 3/(Tε + 1) − ε, or Tε ≥ 1/ε − 1. The key to this result is that the average payoff criterion can cause payoff differences in distant periods to appear small in the current period, and can also cause payoff 5. While Radner (1980) examines ﬁnitely repeated oligopoly games, the issues can be more parsimoniously presented in the context of the prisoners’ dilemma. Radner (1981) explores analogous equilibria in the context of a repeated principal-agent game, where the construction is complicated by the inability of the principal to perfectly monitor the agent’s actions. 6. Lehrer and Sorin (1998) and Watson (1994) consider concepts that require contemporaneous ε-optimality conditional only on those histories that are reached along the equilibrium path.

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differences in the current period to appear small, as long as there are enough periods left in the continuation game. Mailath, Postlewaite, and Samuelson (2005) note that if payoffs are discounted instead of simply averaged, then for sufﬁciently small ε, the only contemporaneous perfect equilibrium outcome is to always shirk, no matter how long the game. In this respect, the average and discounted payoff criteria of (4.4.1) and (4.4.2) have different implications. ◆ Proposition 4.4.2 shows that the set of equilibrium payoffs, for very long ﬁnitely repeated games with multiple stage-game Nash equilibria, is close to its counterpart in inﬁnitely repeated games. Considering ε-equilibria allows us to establish a continuity result that also applies to stage games with a unique Nash equilibrium. Fix a ﬁnite stage game G and let GT be its T -fold repetition, with G∞ being the corresponding inﬁnitely repeated game. Let payoffs be discounted, and hence given by (4.4.2). Let σ ∞ and σ T denote strategy proﬁles for G∞ and GT . We would like ∞ to speak of a sequence of strategy proﬁles {σ T }∞ T =0 as converging to σ . To do so, T T ∞ ﬁrst convert each strategy σ to a strategy σˆ in game G by concatenating σ T ∞ if the with an arbitrary strategy for G∞ . We then say that {σ T }∞ T =0 converges to σ ∞ T ∞ sequence {σˆ }T =0 converges to σ in the product topology (i.e., for any history ht , σˆ T (ht ) converges to σ ∞ (ht ) as T → ∞). Fudenberg and Levine’s (1983) theorem 3.3 implies: Proposition The strategy proﬁle σ ∞ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of G∞ if and only if

4.5.1 there exist sequences ε(n), T (n), and σ T (n) , n = 1, 2, . . . , with σ T (n) an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium of GT (n) and with limn→∞ ε(n) = 0, limn→∞ T (n) = ∞, and limn→∞ σ T (n) = σ ∞ . Fudenberg and Levine (1983) establish this result for games that are continuous at inﬁnity, a class of games that includes repeated games with discounted payoffs as a common example. Intuitively, a game is continuous at inﬁnity if two strategy proﬁles yield nearly the same payoff proﬁle whenever they generate identical behavior on a sufﬁciently long initial string of periods. Hence, behavior differences that occur sufﬁciently far in the future must have a sufﬁciently small impact on payoffs. At the cost of a more complicated topology on strategies (simpliﬁed by Harris 1985), Fudenberg and Levine (1983) extend the result beyond ﬁnite games (see also Fudenberg and Levine 1986 and Börgers 1989). Mailath, Postlewaite, and Samuelson’s (2005) observation that the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma with discounting has a unique contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium for sufﬁciently small ε and for any length, shows that a counterpart of proposition 4.5.1 does not hold for contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium.

4.6

Renegotiation

For sufﬁciently high discount factors, it is an equilibrium outcome for the players in a repeated prisoners’ dilemma to exert effort in every period with the temptation to shirk deterred by a subsequent switch to perpetual, mutual shirking. This equilibrium

4.6

■

121

Renegotiation

L

R

T

9, 9

0, 8

B

8, 0

7, 7

Figure 4.6.1 Coordination game in which efﬁciency and risk dominance conﬂict.

is subgame perfect, so that carrying out the punishment is itself an equilibrium of the continuation game facing the players after someone has shirked. Suppose the punishment phase has been triggered. Why doesn’t one player approach the other and say, “Let’s just forget about carrying on with this punishment and start over with a new equilibrium, in which we exert effort. It’s an equilibrium to do so, just as it’s an equilibrium to continue with the punishment, but starting over gives us a better equilibrium.” If the other player is convinced, the punishment path is not implemented. Renegotiation-proof equilibria limit attention to equilibria that survive this type of renegotiation credibility test. However, if the punishment path indeed fails this renegotiation test, then it is no longer obvious that we can support the original equilibrium in which effort was exerted, in which case the renegotiation challenge to the punishment may not be convincing, in which case the punishment is again available, and so on. Any notion of renegotiation proofness must resolve such self-references. Renegotiation is a compelling consideration for credibility to the extent that the restriction to efﬁciency is persuasive. There is a large body of research centered on the premise that economic systems do not always yield efﬁcient outcomes, to the extent that events such as bank failures (Diamond and Dybvig 1983), discrimination (Coate and Loury 1993), or economic depressions (Cooper and John 1988) are explained as events in which players have coordinated on an inefﬁcient equilibrium. At the same time, it is frequently argued that we should restrict attention to efﬁcient equilibria of games. The study of equilibrium is commonly justiﬁed by a belief that there is some process resulting in equilibrium behavior. The argument then continues that this same process should be expected to produce not only an equilibrium but an efﬁcient one. Suppose, for example, the process is thought to involve (nonbinding) communication among the players in which they agree on a plan of play before the game is actually played. If this communcation leads the players to agree on an equilibrium, why not an efﬁcient one? This case for efﬁciency is not always obvious. Consider the game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.1, taken from Aumann (1990). The efﬁcient outcome is TL, for payoffs of (9, 9). However, equilibrium BR is less risky, in the sense that B and R are best responses unless one is virtually certain that L and T will be played.7 Even staunch believers in efﬁciency might entertain sufﬁcient doubt about their opponents as to give rise to BR. Suppose now that we put some preliminary communication into the mix in an attempt 7. Formally, (B, R) is the risk-dominant equilibrium (Harsanyi and Selten 1988).

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to banish these doubts. One can then view player 2 as urging 1 to play T , as part of equilibrium TL, with player 1 all the while thinking, “Player 2 is better off if I choose T no matter what she plays, so there is nothing to be learned from her advocacy of T . In addition, if she entertains doubts as to whether she has convinced me to play T , she will optimally play R, suggesting that I should protect myself by playing B.” The same holds in reverse, suggesting that the players may still choose BR, despite their protests to the contrary. The concept of a renegotiation-proof equilibrium pushes the belief in efﬁciency further. We are asked to think of the players being able to coordinate on an efﬁcient equilibrium not only at the beginning of the game but also at any time during the game. Hence, should they ever ﬁnd themselves facing an inefﬁcient continuation equilibrium, whether on or off the equilibrium path, they can renegotiate to achieve an efﬁcient equilibrium.

4.6.1 Finitely Repeated Games The logic of renegotiation proofness seems straightforward: Agents should not settle for a continuation equilibrium if it is strictly dominated by some other equilibrium. However, we should presumably exclude an equilibrium only if it gives rise to a continuation equilibrium that is strictly dominated by some other renegotiation-proof equilibrium. This self-reference in the deﬁnition makes an obvious formulation of renegotiation proofness elusive. Many of the attendant difﬁculties are eliminated in ﬁnitely repeated games, where backward induction allows us to avoid the ambiguity. We accordingly start with a discussion of ﬁnitely repeated games (based on Benoit and Krishna 1993). We consider a normal-form two-player game G that is played T times, to yield the game GT .8 Normalized payoffs are given by (4.4.1). As in section 4.4, it simpliﬁes the analysis to work with the limiting case of no discounting. We work throughout without public correlation. Fixing a stage game G, let E t be the set of unnormalized subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff proﬁles for game Gt .9 Given any set W t of unnormalized payoff proﬁles, let G (W t ) be the subset consisting of those proﬁles in W t that are not strictly dominated by any other payoff proﬁle in W t . We refer to such payoffs throughout as efﬁcient in W t , or often simply as efﬁcient, with the context providing the reference set. Finally, given a set of (unnormalized) payoff proﬁles W t for game Gt , let Q(W t ) be the set of unnormalized payoff proﬁles for game Gt+1 that can be decomposed on W t . Hence, the payoff proﬁle v lies in Q(W t ) if there exists an action proﬁle α and a function γ : A → W t such that, for all i and ai ∈ Ai , vi = ui (α) + γi (a)α(a) a∈A

≥ u(ai , α−i ) +

γ (ai , a−i )α−i (a−i ),

a−i ∈A−i

8. Wen (1996) extends the analysis to more than two players. τ 9. Hence, E t consists of payoffs of the form τt−1 =0 u .

4.6

■

123

Renegotiation

A

B

C

A

0, 0

4, 1

0, 0

B

1, 4

0, 0

5, 3

C

0, 0

3, 5

0, 0

Figure 4.6.2 Stage game with two inefﬁcient pure-strategy Nash equilibria.

with a corresponding deﬁnition restricted to pure strategies for inﬁnite games. We will be especially interested in this function in the case in which W t is a subset of E t . The set Q(W t ) will then identify subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs in Gt+1 . Definition Let

4.6.1

Q1 = E 1 and W 1 = G (Q1 ), and deﬁne, for t = 2, . . . , T , Qt = Q(W t−1 ) and W t = G (Qt ). Then R T ≡ T1 W T is the set of renegotiation-proof subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs in the repeated game of length T .

This construction begins at the end of the game by choosing the set of efﬁcient stage-game Nash equilibria as candidates for play in the ﬁnal period. These are the renegotiation-proof equilibria in the ﬁnal period. In the penultimate period, the renegotiation-proof equilibria are those subgame-perfect equilibria that are efﬁcient in the set of equilibria whose ﬁnal-period continuation paths are renegotiation-proof. Continuing, in any period t, the renegotiation-proof equilibria are those subgame-perfect equilibria that are efﬁcient in the set of equilibria whose next-period continuation paths are renegotiation-proof. Working our way back to the beginning of the T period game, we obtain the set R T of normalized renegotiation-proof equilibrium payoffs. We are interested in the limit (under the Hausdorff metric) of R T as T → ∞, if it exists.10 Denote the limit by R ∞ ; this set is closed and nonempty by deﬁnition. Example Consider the stage game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.2. We restrict attention in this example

4.6.1 to pure strategies. Pure-strategy minmax payoffs are 1, imposed by playing A. Proposition 4.4.1 then tells us that the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs approaches F †p = co{(0, 0), (1, 4), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 1)} ∩ {v ∈ R2 : vi > 1, i = 1, 2}

10. The Hausdorff distance between two nonempty compact sets, A and A is given by |a − a |, max min |a − a | . d(A , A ) = max max min a∈A a ∈A

a ∈A a∈A

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u2

u (C , B ) R∞

u ( B, A)

u ( B, C )

u ( A, B) u1 Figure 4.6.3 The set F †p (shaded) for the game in ﬁgure 4.6.2,

along with the limiting set limT →∞ T1 W T = R ∞ of renegotiation-proof equilibrium payoff proﬁles.

for sufﬁciently long ﬁnitely repeated games. Figure 4.6.3 shows the sets F †p and R ∞ . We now examine renegotiation-proof equilibria. We have Q1 = {(1, 4), (4, 1)} and

W 1 = {(1, 4), (4, 1)}.

The set Q2 includes equilibria constructed by preceding either of the elements of W 1 with ﬁrst-period action proﬁles that yield either (1, 4) or (4, 1). In addition, we can play BC in the ﬁrst period followed by BA in the second, with ﬁrst-period deviations followed by AB, or can reverse the roles in this construction. We thus have Q2 = {(2, 8), (6, 7), (5, 5), (7, 6), (8, 2)} and

W 2 = {(2, 8), (6, 7), (7, 6), (8, 2)}.

The sets Qt+1 quickly grow large, and it is helpful to note the following shortcuts in calculating W t+1 . First, W t+1 will never include an element whose ﬁrst-period payoff is (0, 0) (even though Qt+1 may), because this is strictly dominated by an equilibrium whose ﬁrst-period action proﬁle gives payoff (1, 4) or (4, 1), with play then continuing as in the candidate equilibrium. We can thus restrict attention to elements of Qt+1 whose ﬁrst-period payoffs are drawn from the set {(1, 4), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 1)}. Second, there is an equilibrium in Qt+1 whose ﬁrst period payoff is (5, 3) and whose continuation payoff is any element of W t other than the one that minimizes player 2’s payoff, because the latter leaves no opportunity to create the incentives for player 2 to choose C in period 1. Similarly, there is an equilibrium in Qt+1 whose ﬁrst period payoff is (3, 5) and whose

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continuation payoff is any element of W t other than the one that minimizes player 1’s payoff. Third, this in turn indicates that any element of Qt+1 that begins with payoff (4, 1) and continues with a payoff in W t that does not maximize player 1’s payoff will not appear in W t+1 , being strictly dominated by an element of Qt+1 with initial payoff (5, 3) and identical continuation. A similar observation holds for payoffs beginning with (1, 4). Hence, we can simplify the presentation by restricting attention to elements of Qt+1 that begin with payoff (4, 1) only if they continue with the element W t that maximizes player 1’s payoff and similarly to equilibria beginning with (1, 4) only if the continuations maximize player 2’s ˆ t+1 be the subset these three rules identify, we have payoff. Letting Q ˆ 3 = {(3, 12), (9, 12), (10, 11), (11, 7), (7, 11), (11, 10), (12, 9), (12, 3)}, Q and so W 3 = {(3, 12), (9, 12), (10, 11), (11, 10), (12, 9), (12, 3)}. The next iteration gives W 4 = {(12, 17), (13, 16), (14, 15), (15, 14), (16, 13), (17, 12)}. None of these equilibrium payoffs have been achieved by preceding an element of W 3 with either payoff (1, 4) or (4, 1). Instead, the equilibrium payoffs constructed by beginning with these payoffs are inefﬁcient, and are excluded from W 4 . We next calculate W 5 = {(13, 21), (16, 21), (17, 20), (18, 19), (19, 18), (20, 17), (21, 16), (21, 13)}. In this case, the equilibrium payoffs (13, 21) and (21, 13) are obtained by preceding continuation payoffs (12, 17) and (17, 12) with (1, 4) and (4, 1). At our next iteration, we have W 6 = {(19, 26), (20, 25), (21, 24), (22, 23), (23, 22), (24, 21), (25, 20), (26, 19)}. ˆ 6 constructed by beginning with payoffs (1, 4) Here again, all of the equilibria in Q or (4, 1) are strictly dominated. Continuing in this fashion, we ﬁnd that for even values of t ≥ 4, W t = {(v t , v¯ t ), (v t + 1, v¯ t − 1), (v t + 2, v¯ t − 2), . . . , (v¯ t − 1, v t + 1), (v¯ t , v t )}, where v t = 12 + 7 t−4 2

and

v¯ t = 17 + 9 t−4 2 ,

whereas for odd values of t ≥ 4 we have W t = {(v t−1 + 1, v¯ t ), (v t , v¯ t ), (v t + 1, v¯ t − 1), (v t + 2, v¯ t − 2), . . . , (v¯ t − 1, v t + 1), (v¯ t , v t ), (v¯ t , v t−1 + 1)},

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where v t = v t−1 + 4

and v¯ t = v¯ t−1 + 4.

In particular, it is straightforward to verify that for each t ≥ 4, W t+1 is obtained from W t by constructing equilibria that precede the continuation payoff proﬁle from W t that minimizes player 1’s payoff with payoff (1, 4), that precede every other continuation proﬁle with (3, 5), that precede the proﬁle that minimizes player 2’s payoff with (4, 1), and that precede every other with (5, 3), and then eliminating inefﬁcient proﬁles. It is then apparent that we have lim R T = co 72 , 92 , 92 , 72 .

T →∞

Hence, the set of renegotiation-proof equilibrium payoffs converges to a subset of the set of efﬁcient payoffs. ●

Example Consider the game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.4. We again consider pure-strategy equi-

4.6.2 libria. The ﬁrst step in the construction of renegotiation-proof equilibria is straightforward: Q1 = {(2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2)} and

W 1 = {(2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2)}.

We now note that no element of Q2 can begin with a ﬁrst-period payoff of (0, 0). Every such outcome either presents at least one player with a deviation that increases his ﬁrst-period payoff by at least 3 or presents both players with deviations that increase their ﬁrst-period payoffs by at least 2. The continuation payoffs presented by W 1 cannot be arranged to deter all such deviations (nor, as will be apparent from (4.6.1)–(4.6.2), will the continuation payoffs contained in any W t be able to do so). However, Q2 does contain an equilibrium in which the payoffs (7, 7) are attained in the ﬁrst period, followed by (3, 3) in the second,

A

B

C

D

A

0, 0

2, 4

0, 0

8, 0

B

4, 2

0, 0

0, 0

0, 0

C

0, 0

0, 0

3, 3

0, 0

D

0, 8

0, 0

0, 0

7, 7

Figure 4.6.4 Game whose renegotiation-proof payoffs exhibit an oscillating pattern, converging to a single inefﬁcient payoff as the horizon gets large.

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with any ﬁrst-period deviation deterred by a switch to a second-period payoff of (2, 4) or (4, 2), allocating the lower payoff to the ﬁrst-period miscreant. This just sufﬁces to deter such deviations. We then have Q2 = {(4, 8), (5, 7), (6, 6), (7, 5), (8, 4), (10, 10)} and

W 2 = {(10, 10)}.

The ﬁnding that W 2 is a singleton ensures that in the three-period game, ﬁrstperiod play must constitute a stage-game Nash equilibrium, because there is no opportunity to arrange continuation payoffs to punish deviations. Hence, Q3 = {(12, 14), (13, 13), (14, 12)} and

W 3 = {(12, 14), (13, 13), (14, 12)}.

This again opens the possibility for a ﬁrst-period payoff of (7, 7) in the four-period game, giving Q4 = {(14, 18), (15, 17), (16, 16), (17, 15), (18, 14), (20, 20)} and

W 4 = {(20, 20)}.

It should now be apparent that we have an oscillating structure, with W 2t = {(10t, 10t)}

(4.6.1)

and W 2t+1 = {(10t + 2, 10t + 4), (10t + 3, 10t + 3), (10t + 4, 10t + 2)}.

(4.6.2)

It is then immediate that lim R T = {(5, 5)}.

T →∞

●

This last example shows that the set of renegotiation-proof payoffs can be quite sensitive to precisely how many periods remain until the end of the game. Hence, although the backward-induction argument renders the concept of renegotiation proofness unambiguous, it raises just the sort of end-game effects that often motivate a preference for inﬁnite horizon games. When will renegotiation-proof equilibria be efﬁcient? Let bi1 be the largest stagegame equilibrium payoff for player i. Proposition If (b11 , b21 ) ∈ F † and R ∞ exists, then each element of R ∞ is efﬁcient.

4.6.1 Remark Proposition 4.6.1 provides sufﬁcient but not necessary conditions for the set of

4.6.1 renegotiation-proof equilibrium payoffs R T to be nearly efﬁcient for large T . We have not offered conditions ensuring that R ∞ exists, which remains in general an open question. The condition (b11 , b21 ) ∈ F † is not necessary: The coordination game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.5 satisﬁes (b11 , b21 ) = (2, 2) ∈ F † , thus failing the

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L

R

T

2, 2

0, 0

B

0, 0

1, 1

Figure 4.6.5 A coordination game.

conditions of proposition 4.6.1, but R ∞ nonetheless uniquely contains the efﬁcient payoff (2, 2). ◆ The proof requires several lemmas, maintaining the hypotheses of proposition 4.6.1 throughout. Let biT be the best payoff for player i in the set R T . Lemma For player i ∈ {1, 2} and length T ≥ 1,

4.6.1

biT ≥ bi1 . Hence, as the game gets longer, each player’s best renegotiation-proof outcome can never dip below the payoff produced by repeating his best equilibrium payoff in the one-shot game.

Proof Let wiT be the worst payoff for player i in the set R T . We proceed by induction.

When T = 1, we have the tautological bi1 ≥ bi1 . Hence, suppose that biT −1 ≥ bi1 , and consider a game of length T . For convenience, consider player 1. We ﬁrst note that (b11 , w21 ) + (T − 1)(b1T −1 , w2T −1 ) ∈ QT . This statement follows from two observations. First, because no two elements of R t can be strictly ranked (i.e., neither strictly dominates the other), there is an equilibrium payoff in R t giving player 1 his best payoff and player 2 her worst payoff, or (b1t , w2t ), for any t. Second, we can construct an equilibrium of the T period game by playing the stage-game equilibrium featuring payoffs b11 , w21 in the ﬁrst period, followed by the continuation equilibrium of the T − 1 period remaining game that gives payoffs b1T −1 , w2T −1 . Then, because R T consists of the normalized undominated elements of QT , we have T b1T ≥ b11 + (T − 1)b1T −1 ≥ b11 + (T − 1)b11 = T b11 , where the second inequality follows from the induction hypothesis. ■

Let bi and wi be the best and worst payoff for player i in R ∞ . The fact that R ∞ is closed ensures existence. Then the primary intuition behind proposition 4.6.1 is contained in the following.

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Lemma If b1 > w1 and b2 > w2 , then each payoff v ∈ R ∞ with vi > wi , i = 1, 2, is

4.6.2 efﬁcient. The idea behind this proof is that if there is a feasible payoff proﬁle v that strictly dominates one of the payoffs v in R ∞ , then we can append this payoff to the beginning of an “equilibrium” in R ∞ with payoff v , using the worst equilibria in R ∞ for the two players to deter deviations. But this yields a new equilibrium that strictly dominates v , a contradiction. The conclusion is then that there must be no such v and v , that is, that the payoffs in R ∞ must be efﬁcient. To turn this intuition into a proof, we must recognize that R ∞ is the limit of sets of equilibria in ﬁnitely repeated games, and make the translation from “an equilibrium in R ∞ ” to equilibria along this sequence. Proof Observe ﬁrst that the payoff proﬁles (w1 , b2 ) ≡ v 2 and (b1 , w2 ) ≡ v 1 are both

contained in R ∞ . Suppose there is a payoff proﬁle v ∈ R ∞ , with vi > wi , and with another payoff proﬁle v ∈ F † with v strictly dominating v . We now seek a contradiction. Because v ∈ F † strictly dominates v , v must also be strictly dominated by some payoff proﬁle in F † close to v (for which we retain the notation v ) for which there exists a ﬁnite K and (not necessarily distinct) pure-action proﬁles k a 1 , . . . , a K such that K1 K k=1 u(a ) = v . Fix ε > 0 so that vi + ε < vi , j

i, j = 1, 2, j = i,

(4.6.3)

and, for any such ε, ﬁx a length Tε for the ﬁnitely repeated game and an equilibrium σ v (Tε ) such that for i = 1, 2, % % %Ui (σ v (Tε )) − v % < ε , and (4.6.4) i 3 ε Tε > K(M − m) (4.6.5) 3 (where, as usual, Ui (σ ) is the average payoff in Gt of the Gt -proﬁle σ and M (m, respectively) is the maximum (minimum, respectively) stage game payoff), and there is a pair of sequences of equilibria {σ j (T )}T ≥Tε , j = 1, 2, such that, for any T ≥ Tε , i = j , ε j Ui (σ j (T )) < vi + . 3

(4.6.6)

We now recursively deﬁne a sequence of equilibria. The idea is to build a sequence of equilibria for ever longer games, appending in turn each of the actions a 1 , . . . , a K to the beginning of the equilibrium, starting the cycle anew every K periods. Deviations by player i are punished by switching to the equilibrium σ j (T ). We begin with the equilibrium for GTε +1 , which plays a 1 in period 1, followed by σ v (Tε ), with a ﬁrst-period deviation by player i followed by play of σ j (Tε ). Checking that this is a subgame-perfect equilibrium requires showing that ﬁrstperiod deviations are not optimal, for which it sufﬁces that

ε ε j ≥ M + T ε vi + , m + Tε vi − 3 3

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j Tε vi − vi − 23 ε ≥ M − m,

which is implied by (4.6.3) and (4.6.5). We thus have an equilibrium payoff in QTε +1 , which is either itself contained in R Tε +1 or is strictly dominated by some equilibrium payoff proﬁle in R Tε +1 . Denote by σ (Tε + 1) the equilibrium with payoff proﬁle in R Tε +1 . Note that (Tε + 1)Ui (σ (Tε + 1)) ≥ ui (a 1 ) + Tε Ui (σ v (Tε )). Given an equilibrium σ (Tε + k) with payoffs in R Tε +k for k = 1, . . . , K − 1, consider the proﬁle that plays a k+1 in the ﬁrst period, with deviations by player i punished by continuing with σ j (Tε + k), and with σ (Tε + k) played in the absence of a deviation. To verify that the proﬁle is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, it is enough to show that there are no ﬁrst-period proﬁtable deviations. In doing so, however, we are faced with the difﬁculty that we have little information about the payoff ui (a k+1 ) or the potential beneﬁt from a deviation. We do know that each complete cycle a 1 , . . . , a K has average payoff v (which will prove useful for periods T > Tε + K). Accordingly, we proceed by ﬁrst noting that a lower bound on i’s equilibrium payoff is

ε , (k + 1)m + Tε vi − 3

(4.6.7)

obtained by placing no control on payoffs during the ﬁrst k + 1 periods and then using (4.6.4). Conditions (4.6.3) and (4.6.5) give the ﬁrst inequality in the following, the second follows from the deﬁnition of M, and the third from (4.6.6),

ε ε j (k + 1)m + Tε vi − ≥ (k + 1)M + Tε vi + 3 3

ε j ≥ M + (Tε + k) vi + 3 j > M + (Tε + k)Ui (σ (Tε + k)). Because the ﬁrst term is a lower bound on i’s equilibrium payoff, ﬁrst-period deviations are suboptimal. We thus have an equilibrium payoff proﬁle in QT (ε)+k+1 , which is again either contained in or strictly dominated by some proﬁle in R Tε +k+1 . Denote by σ (Tε + k + 1) the equilibrium with payoff proﬁle in R Tε +k+1 . Note that (Tε + k + 1)Ui (σ (Tε + k + 1)) ≥ ui (a k+1 ) + (Tε + k)Ui (σ v (Tε + k)). This argument yields an equilibrium for T = Tε + K, σ (Tε + K) with payoffs in R Tε +K , and satisfying (Tε + K)Ui (σ (Tε + K)) ≥ Tε Ui (σ v (Tε )) + u(a k ) ≥

Tε vi

−

ε 3

k + Kvi .

Suppose T = Tε + K + k for some ∈ {1, 2, . . . } and k ∈ {1, . . . , K − 1}, and σ (T − 1) is an equilibrium with payoffs in R T −1 , and satisfying k−1 (T − 1)Ui (σ (T − 1)) ≥ Tε vi − 3ε + Kvi + ui (a h ). h=1

(4.6.8)

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Consider the proﬁle that plays a k in the ﬁrst period, with deviations by player i punished by continuing with σ j (T − 1), and with σ (T − 1) played in the absence of a deviation. As before, deviations in the ﬁrst period are unproﬁtable: T Ui (σ (T )) ≥ km + Kvi + Tε vi − 3ε j ≥ M + (T − 1) vi + 3ε > M + (T − 1)Ui (σ j (T − 1)). We thus have an equilibrium payoff proﬁle in QT , which is again either contained in or strictly dominated by some proﬁle in R T . Denote by σ (T ) the equilibrium with payoff proﬁle in R T . Note also that σ (T ) satisﬁes (4.6.8). We thus have two sequences of equilibria, σ v (T ) and σ (T ), each yielding payoffs contained in R T . The average payoff of each element of the former sequence lies within ε/3 of v , whereas the average payoff of the latter eventually strictly dominates v − ε/3. For sufﬁciently small ε, the latter eventually strictly dominates the former, a contradiction. ■

Proving proposition 4.6.1 requires extending lemma 4.6.2 to the boundary cases in which vi = wi . We begin with an intermediate result. Let Mi be the largest stage-game payoff for player i. Lemma Suppose v 1 and v 2 are two proﬁles in R ∞ with vi2 < vi1 and with no v ∈ R ∞

4.6.3 satisfying vi2 < vi < vi1 . Then max{vj : (vi , vj ) ∈ R ∞ } = Mj for = 1, 2.

Proof Without loss of generality, we take i = 1. Under the hypothesis of the lemma, the

set R ∞ has a gap between two equilibria. Because v11 > v12 , max{v2 : (v11 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ } ≤ max{v2 : (v12 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ }. We let a be an action proﬁle with u2 (a) = M2 and derive a contradiction from the assumption that max{v2 : (v11 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ } < M2 . Without loss of generality, we assume v21 = max{v2 : (v11 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ }. Let ε = 14 (v11 − v12 ) and choose Tε so that for all T ≥ Tε , M + T (v12 + ε) < m + T (v11 − 2ε).

(4.6.9)

We consider two cases. First, suppose u1 (a) < v11 − ε, and let λ ∈ (0, 1) and the payoff proﬁle v˜ solve v˜1 = v11 − ε, and

v˜ = λu(a) + (1 − λ)v 1 .

Let η < min{ε, (v˜2 − v21 )/2}. Because v21 = max{v2 : (v1 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ , v1 ≥ v11 }, R ∞ ∩ V = ∅, where V ≡ {v : v1 ≥ v11 − 2ε, v2 ≥ v21 + η}. Note that v˜ ∈ V . The proof proceeds by showing that, for large T , R T ∩ V = ∅, which sufﬁces for the contradiction in the ﬁrst case. ˜ < η/2. Choose For every v with v 1 − v < η/2,11 λu(a) + (1 − λ)v − v a game length Tη > Tε such that for all T > Tη , the Hausdorff distance between 11. We use · to denote the max or sup norm, reserving | · | for Euclidean distance.

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R T and R ∞ is less than η/2. Hence, for each T > Tη , there are equilibria σ 1 (T ) and σ 2 (T ) with payoffs in R T , such that U (σ i (T )) − v i < η/2. Moreover, there are sequences of game lengths T (n) and integers K(n) < T (n) − Tη , such that & & & & 1 1 & & & T (n) K(n)u(a) + (T (n) − K(n))v − v˜ & < η. For each T (n) in the sequence, we construct an equilibrium with payoffs in R T (n) ∩ V (which is the desired contradiction), using a payoff obtained from playing u(a) for K(n) periods and (approximately) v 1 for the remaining T − K(n) periods. Notice that K(n)/T (n) will be approximately λ, so there is no difﬁculty in requiring T (n) − K(n) > Tη . For each T (n), we recursively construct a sequence of equilibria, beginning with the game of length T (n) − K(n) + 1. In the ﬁrst period, proﬁle a is played, followed by the continuation equilibrium σ 1 (T (n) − K(n)). Player 1 deviations in the ﬁrst period are punished by continuation equilibrium σ 2 (T (n) − K(n)). Player 2 has no incentive to deviate in the ﬁrst period, because a gives her the maximum stage-game payoff M2 , and so can be ignored. This strategy proﬁle is subgame perfect if 1 has no incentive to deviate, which is ensured by (4.6.9). We denote by σ (T (n) − K(n) + 1) an equilibrium whose payoff proﬁle is in R T (n)−K(n)+1 and which either equals or strictly dominates the equilibrium payoff we have just constructed. Given such an equilibrium σ (T (n) − K(n) + m) for some m = 1, . . . , K(n) − 1, construct a proﬁle for GT (n)−K(n)+m+1 by prescribing play of a in the ﬁrst period, followed by σ (T (n) − K(n) + m), with player 1 deviations punished by σ 2 (T (n) − K(n) + m). Condition (4.6.9) again provides the necessary condition for this to be an equilibrium with payoffs in QT (n)−K(n)+m+1 . Denote by σ (T (n) − K(n) + m + 1) an equilibrium with payoffs in R T (n)−K(n)+m+1 that equal or strictly dominate those of the equilibrium we have constructed. Proceeding in this fashion until reaching length T (n) provides an equilibrium with payoffs in R T (n) ; it is straightforward to verify that the payoffs also lie in V . The remaining case, u1 (a) > v11 − ε, is easier to handle, because adding payoff u(a) to an equilibrium increases rather than decreases 1’s payoff and hence makes it less likely to raise incentive problems for player 1. In this case, we can take v˜ to be an arbitrary nontrivial convex combination of M and v 1 and then proceed as before. ■

We now extend lemma 4.6.2 to the boundary cases in which vi = wi . Lemma Let b1 > w1 and b2 > w2 . Then each payoff in v ∈ R ∞ is efﬁcient.

4.6.4 Proof Lemma 4.6.2 establishes the result for any proﬁle that does not give one player

the worst payoff in R ∞ . By hypothesis, R ∞ contains at least two points. Suppose (w1 , w2 ) ∈ R ∞ , and let vj > wj be the smallest player j playoff for which (wi , vj ) ∈ R ∞ . If vj = Mj , then (wi , vj ) is efﬁcient. Suppose vj < Mj . Then, by lemma 4.6.3, there is path in R ∞ between (wi , vj ) and (bi , vj ), for ∞ some vj ≥ wj . Hence, there is a sequence of payoff proﬁles {v n }∞ n=0 in R that

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converges to (wi , vj ) and, by the deﬁnition of vj , vin > wi and vjn > wj for all sufﬁciently large n. By lemma 4.6.2, each v n is efﬁcient, and hence so is (wi , vj ), as are all points (wi , vj ) ∈ R ∞ with vj > vj . It remains to rule out the possibility that (w1 , w2 ) ∈ R ∞ . We suppose (w1 , w2 ) ∈ R ∞ and argue to a contradiction. Lemma 4.6.3, coupled with the observation that R ∞ can contain no proﬁle that strictly dominates another, ensures that R ∞ consists of two line segments, one joining (w1 , b2 ) with (w1 , w2 ), and one joining (w1 , w2 ) with (b1 , w2 ). Let a be an action proﬁle with u2 (a) = M2 , and ﬁx λ ∈ (0, 1) so that w1 < v˜1 ≡ λu1 (a) + (1 − λ)b1 , and

w2 < v˜2 ≡ λM2 + (1 − λ)w2 .

Let ε = min{v˜1 − w1 , v˜2 − w2 }/4 > 0 and choose Tε so that for all T ≥ Tε , M + T (w1 + ε) < m + T (b1 − 2ε). The proof proceeds by showing that for large T , there are payoffs in R T within ε of v, ˜ contradicting the assumption that (w1 , w2 ) ∈ R ∞ . Because the details of the rest of the argument are almost identical to the proof of lemma 4.6.3, they are omitted. ■

Proof of Proposition 4.6.1 Suppose that (b11 , b21 ) ∈ F † . Lemma 4.6.1 ensures that R ∞

contains one proﬁle whose payoff to player 1 is at least b11 and one whose payoff to player 2 is at least b22 . Because it is impossible to do both simultaneously, it must be that b1 > w1 and b2 > w2 . But then lemma 4.6.4 implies that R ∞ consists of efﬁcient equilibria. ■

The payoffs b11 and b21 are the best stage-game Nash equilibrium payoffs for players 1 and 2. The criterion provided by proposition 4.6.1 is then to ask whether it is feasible (though not necessarily an equilibrium) to simultaneously obtain these payoffs in the stage game. If not, then renegotiation-proof equilibria must be nearly efﬁcient. The payoff proﬁle (b11 , b21 ) is infeasible in example 4.6.1, and hence the limiting renegotiation-proof equilibria are efﬁcient. Example 4.6.2 accommodates such payoffs, thus failing the sufﬁcient condition for efﬁciency, and featuring inefﬁcient limiting payoffs. Remark Benoit and Krishna (1993) extend lemma 4.6.4 to allow one of the inequalities

4.6.2 b1 > w1 and b2 > w2 to be weak. By doing so, they obtain the result that either the set R ∞ is a singleton or it is efﬁcient. The only case that is not covered by our proof is that in which R ∞ is either a vertical or horizontal line segment, to which analogous arguments apply. Example 4.6.2 illustrates the case in which R ∞ is inefﬁcient and is hence a singleton. Example 4.6.1 illustrates a case in which R ∞ contains only efﬁcient proﬁles and contains an interval of such payoffs. There remains the possibility that R ∞ may contain only a single payoff which is efﬁcient. This is the case for the coordination game of ﬁgure 4.6.5. ◆

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E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 4.6.6 The prisoners’ dilemma.

4.6.2 Infinitely Repeated Games We now consider inﬁnite horizon games.12 The point of departure is that a continuation equilibrium is not “credible” if it is strictly dominated by an alternative continuation equilibrium. In making this determination, however, one is not interested in all alternative equilibria, but only in those that themselves survive the credibility test. Definition A subgame-perfect equilibrium (W , w 0 , f, τ ) of the inﬁnitely repeated game is

4.6.2 weakly renegotiation proof if the payoffs at any pair of states are not strictly ranked (i.e., if for all w , w ∈ W , if Vi (w ) > Vi (w ) for some i, then Vj (w ) ≤ Vj (w ) for some j ). Intuitively, if the payoffs beginning with the initial state w strictly dominate the payoffs beginning with the initial state w , then the latter are vulnerable to renegotiation, because the strategy proﬁle (W , w , f, τ ) is both unanimously preferred and part of equilibrium behavior. Weakly renegotiation proof equilibria always exist, because for any stage-game Nash equilibrium, the repeated-game proﬁle that plays this equilibrium after every history is weakly renegotiation proof. Example Consider the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 1.2.1, reproduced in ﬁgure 4.6.6. Grim

4.6.3 trigger is not a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. The strategies following the null history feature effort throughout the remainder of the equilibrium path. The resulting payoffs strictly dominate those produced by the strategies following a history featuring an instance of shirking, which call for perpetual shirking. This may suggest that perpetual defection is the only renegotiation-proof equilibrium of the repeated prisoners’ dilemma, because any other equilibrium must involve a punishment that will be strictly dominated by the original equilibrium. This is the case for strongly symmetric strategy proﬁles, that is, proﬁles in which the two players always choose the same actions, because any punishment must then 12. We illustrate the issues by ﬁrst presenting some results taken from Evans and Maskin (1989) and Farrell and Maskin (1989), followed by an alternative perspective due to Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1993). Bernheim and Ray (1989) comtemporaneously presented closely related work. Similar issues appear in the idea of a coalition-proof equilibrium (Bernheim, Peleg, and Whinston 1987; Bernheim and Whinston 1987), where one seeks equilibria that are robust to alternative choices that are jointly coordinated by the members of a coalition. Here again, one seeks robustness to deviations that are themselves robust, introducing the self-reference that makes an obvious deﬁnition elusive.

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SE, EE

wSE

ES wEE SE

w0

wES

ES, EE

Figure 4.6.7 Weakly renegotiation-proof strategy proﬁle supporting mutual effort in every period, in the prisoners’ dilemma. Unspeciﬁed transitions leave the state unchanged.

push both players below their original equilibrium payoff. However, asymmetric punishments open other possibilities. Consider the strategy proﬁle in ﬁgure 4.6.7 (and taken from van Damme 1989). Intuitively, these strategies begin with both players choosing effort. If player i shirks, then he must pay a penance of exerting effort while player j shirks. Once i has done so, all is forgiven and the players return to mutual effort. This is a renegotiation-proof subgame-perfect equilibrium, for sufﬁciently high discount factors. Beginning with subgame perfection, we require that neither player prefer to shirk in the ﬁrst period of the game, or the ﬁrst period of a punishment phase. The accompanying incentive constraints are 2 ≥ (1 − δ)[3 + δ(−1)] + δ 2 2, and

(1 − δ)(−1) + δ2 ≥ δ[(1 − δ)(−1) + δ2].

Both are satisﬁed for δ ≥ 1/3. Our next task is to check renegotiation proofness. Continuation payoff proﬁles are (2, 2), (3δ − 1, 3 − δ), and (3 − δ, 3δ − 1). For δ ∈ [1/3, 1), no pair of these proﬁles is strictly ranked. ●

This result extends. The key to constructing nontrivial renegotiation-proof equilibria is to select punishments that reward the player doing the punishing, ensuring that the punisher is not tempted by the prospect of renegotiating. We consider repeated games with two players.13 Proposition Suppose the game has two players and a˜ ∈ A is a strictly individually rational

4.6.2 pure action proﬁle, with v = u(a). ˜ If there exist pure-action proﬁles a 1 and a 2 such that, for i = 1, 2, max ui (ai , aji ) < vi ,

(4.6.10)

uj (a i ) ≥ vj ,

(4.6.11)

ai ∈Ai

and

then, for sufﬁciently large δ, there exists a pure-strategy weakly renegotiationproof equilibrium with payoffs v. If v is the payoff of a pure-strategy weakly 13. An extension to more than two players remains to be done.

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renegotiation-proof equilibrium, then there exist pure actions a 1 and a 2 satisfying the weak inequality version of (4.6.10) and satisfying (4.6.11). The action proﬁles a 1 and a 2 allow us to punish one player while rewarding the other. In the case of the prisoners’dilemma of ﬁgure 4.6.6, letting a 1 = ES and a 2 = SE ensures that for any payoff vector v ∈ F ∗ , we have, for i = 1 in (4.6.10)–(4.6.11) max u1 (a1 , S) = 0 < v1

a1 ∈{E,S}

u2 (E, S) = 3 ≥ v2 .

and

Hence, any feasible, strictly individually rational payoff vector can be supported by a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium in the prisoners’ dilemma. Notice that in the case of the prisoners’ dilemma, a single pair of action proﬁles a 1 and a 2 provide the punishments needed to support any payoff v ∈ F ∗ . In general, this need not be the case, with different equilibrium payoffs requiring different punishments. Proof of Proposition 4.6.2 We prove the sufﬁciency of (4.6.10)–(4.6.11). For necessity,

see Farrell and Maskin (1989), whose proof of necessity in their theorem 1 holds for our class of equilibria and games (i.e., pure-strategy equilibria in games with unobservable mixtures). The equilibrium strategy proﬁle is a simple strategy proﬁle (deﬁnition 2.6.1), σ (a(0), a(1), a(2)), where a(0) is the constant outcome path in which a˜ is played in every period, and a(i), i = 1, 2, is i’s punishment outcome path of L periods of a i followed by a return to a˜ in every period (where L is to be determined). An automaton for this proﬁle has a set of states {w(0)} ∪ {w(i, k), i = 1, 2, k = 1, . . . , L}, initial state w(0), output function a, ˜ if w = w(0), f (w) = i a , if w = w(i, k), k = 1, . . . , L, and transitions τ (w(0), a) =

w(i, 1), if ai = a˜ i , a−i = a˜ −i ,

w(0),

otherwise,

and τ (w(i, k), a) =

w(j, 1),

i , if aj = aji , a−j = a−j

w(i, k + 1), otherwise,

where we take w(i, L + 1) to be w(0). Choose L so that L mini (vi − ui (a i )) ≥ M − mini vi , where M is, as usual, the largest stage game payoff.

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h

H

2, 3

0, 2

L

3, 0

1, 1

Figure 4.6.8 The product-choice game.

Standard arguments show that for sufﬁciently high δ, no one-shot deviations are proﬁtable from w(0) nor by player i in any state w(i, k) (see the proof of proposition 3.3.1). It is immediate that player i has no incentive to deviate from punishing player j , because i is rewarded for punishing j . It is also straightforward to verify Vi (w(i, k)) < Vi (w(i, k + 1)) < vi ≤ Vi (w(j, k + 1)) ≤ Vi (w(j, k)), and so the proﬁle is weakly renegotiation proof. ■

Example Consider the product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1, reproduced in ﬁgure 4.6.8.

4.6.4 Suppose both players are long-lived. For sufﬁciently large discount factors, we have seen that equilibria exist in which Hh is played in every period. However, it is clear that no such equilibrium can be renegotiation proof. In particular, this equilibrium gives player 2 the largest feasible payoff in the stage game. There is then no way to punish player 1, who faces the equilibrium incentive problem, without also punishing player 2. If there exists an equilibrium in which Hh is always played, then this equilibrium path must yield payoffs strictly dominating some of its own punishments, precluding renegotiation proofness. ●

Remark Public correlation In the presence of a public correlating device, there is an ex ante

4.6.3 and an ex post notion of weak renegotiation proofness. In the latter, renegotiation is possible after the realization of the correlating device, whereas in the former, renegotiation is only possible before the realization. The analysis easily extends to ex ante (but not to ex post) weak renegotiation proofness with public correlation and allows a weakening of the sufﬁcient conditions (4.6.10)–(4.6.11) by replacing a, ˜ a 1 and a 2 with correlated action proﬁles. In doing so, we require (4.6.10) to hold for every realization of the public correlating device, whereas (4.6.11) is required only in expectation. Farrell and Maskin (1989) allow a 1 and a 2 to be (independent) mixtures and allow v to be the payoff of any publicly correlated action proﬁle. They then show that payoff v can be obtained from a deterministic sequence of (possibly mixed but uncorrelated) proﬁles, using an argument similar to that of section 3.7 but assuming observable mixed strategies and complicated by the need to show weak renegotiation proofness. ◆ Every feasible, strictly individually rational payoff in the prisoners’ dilemma can be supported as the outcome of a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium, including

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A

B

C

D

A

4, 2

z, z

z, 0

z, z

B

z, z

0, 3

z, 0

z, z

C

5, z

0, z

3, 0

0, z

D

z, z

z, z

z, 5

2, 4

Figure 4.6.9 Stage game for repeated game in which a strongly renegotiation proof equilibrium does not exist, where z is negative and large in absolute value.

the payoffs provided by persistent shirking and the payoff provided by persistent effort. Why isn’t the former equilibrium disrupted by the opportunity to renegotiate to the latter? The difﬁculty is that weak renegotiation proofness ensures that no two continutation paths, that potentially arise as part of a single equilibrium, are strictly ranked. However, our intuition is that renegotiation-proofness should also restrict attention to a set of equilibria with the property that no two equilibria in the set are strictly ranked. Toward this end, Farrell and Maskin (1989) offer: Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is strongly renegotiation proof if it is weakly renegotiation

4.6.3 proof and no continuation payoff is strictly dominated by the payoff in another weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. The strategy proﬁle shown in ﬁgure 4.6.7 is strongly renegotiation proof. The following example, adapted from Bernheim and Ray (1989), shows that strongly renegotiation-proof equilibria need not exist. Example We consider the game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.9. We let δ = 1/5 and consider only

4.6.5 pure-strategy equilibria. When doing so, it sufﬁces for nonexistence that z < −5/4.14 The minmax values for each agent are 0. The ﬁrst observation is that no pure-strategy equilibrium can ever play an action proﬁle that does not lie on the diagonal of the stage game. Equivalently, any pure equilibrium must be strongly symmetric. Off the diagonal, at least one player receives a stage-game payoff of z and hence a repeated game payoff at most (1 − δ)z + δ5. Given δ = 1/5 and z < −5/4, this is less than the minmax value of 0, a contradiction. The strategy proﬁle that speciﬁes BB after every history is weakly renegotiation proof, as is the proﬁle that speciﬁes CC after each history, with payoffs (0, 3) and 14. Bernheim and Ray (1989) note that the argument extends to mixed equilibria if z is sufﬁciently large and negative. The key is that in that case, any equilibrium mixtures must place only very small probability on outcomes off the diagonal, allowing reasoning similar to that of the pure-strategy case to apply.

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(3, 0) respectively. Similarly, paths that vary between BB and CC can generate convex combinations of (0, 3) and (3, 0) as outcomes of weakly renegotiationproof equilibria. We now consider an equilibrium in which AA is played. Such an equilibrium exists only if we can ﬁnd continuation payoffs γ (AA) and γ (CA) from the interval [0, 4] such that (1 − δ)4 + δγ1 (AA) ≥ (1 − δ)5 + δγ1 (CA). Given δ = 1/5, this inequality can be satisﬁed only if γ1 (AA) = 4 and γ1 (CA) = 0. Hence, there exists a unique equilibrium outcome in which AA is played, which features AA in every period and with deviations followed by a continuation value (0, 3). Similarly, there exists an equilibrium in which DD is played in every period, with deviations followed by continuation values (3, 0). Both equilibria are weakly renegotiation proof. It is now immediate that there are no strongly renegotiation-proof equilibria. Any equilibrium that features only actions BB and CC is strictly dominated either by the equilibrium that always plays AA or the one that always plays DD. However, each of the latter includes a punishment phase that always plays either BB or CC, ensuring that the latter equilibria are also not strongly renegotiation proof. ●

Strongly renegotiation-proof equilibria fail to exist because of a lack of efﬁcient punishments. Sufﬁcient conditions for existence are straightforward when F = F † , as is often (but not always, see ﬁgure 3.1.3) the case when actions sets are continua.15 First, note that taking a˜ in proposition 4.6.2 to be efﬁcient gives sufﬁcient conditions for the existence of an efﬁcient weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium.16 Proposition Suppose F = F † and an efﬁcient (in F † ) pure-strategy weakly renegotiation-

4.6.3 proof equilibrium exists. Let v i be the payoff of the efﬁcient weakly renegotiationproof equilibrium that minimizes player i’s payoff over the set of such equilibria. If there are multiple such equilibria, choose the one maximizing j ’s payoff. For each i, assume there is an action proﬁle a i satisfying max ui (ai , aji ) < vii ai

and

uj (a i ) ≥ vji .

Then for every efﬁcient action proﬁle a ∗ with ui (a ∗ ) ≥ vii for each i, there is a δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) there is a pure-strategy strongly renegotiation-proof equilibrium yielding payoffs u(a ∗ ). 15. In the presence of public correlation and ex ante weak renegotiation proofness (remark 4.6.3), we can drop the assumption that F = F † . Farrell and Maskin (1989) do not assume F = F † or the existence of public correlation (but see remark 4.6.3). 16. Evans and Maskin (1989) show that efﬁcient weakly renegotiation-proof equlibria generically exist, though again assuming observable mixtures.

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Proof Let aˇ i be a pure-action proﬁle with u(aˇ i ) = v i (recall F = F † ). The equi-

librium strategy proﬁle is, again, a simple strategy proﬁle (deﬁnition 2.6.1), σ (a(0), a(1), a(2)), where a(0) is the constant outcome path in which a ∗ is played in every period, and a(i), i = 1, 2, is i’s punishment outcome path of L periods of a i followed by the perpetual play of aˇ i , where L satisﬁes L mini (ui (a ∗ ) − ui (a i )) ≥ M − mini ui (a ∗ ), and M is the largest stage game payoff. As in the proof of proposition 4.6.2, standard arguments show that for sufﬁciently high δ, no one-shot deviations are proﬁtable (see the proof of proposition 3.3.1). It thus remains to show that none of the continuation equilibria induced by this strategy proﬁle are strictly dominated by other weakly renegotiation-proof equilibria. There are ﬁve types of continuation path to consider. Three of these are immediate. The continuation paths consisting of repeated stage-game action proﬁles with payoffs u(a ∗ ) and v i cannot be strictly dominated, because each of these payoff proﬁles is by construction efﬁcient. The remaining two cases are symmetric, and we present the argument for only one of them. Consider a continuation path in which player 1 is being punished, consisting of between 1 and L initial periods in which a 1 is played, followed by the perpetual play of aˇ 1 . Let v˜ be the payoff from this path. Given the properties of a 1 , we know that v˜1 < v11

and

v˜2 ≥ v21 .

Suppose vˆ is a weakly renegotiation-proof payoff proﬁle dominating v. ˜ Then, of course, we must have vˆ2 > v˜2 ≥ v21 . Now suppose vˆ1 > v11 . Then vˆ strictly dominates v 1 , contradicting the assumption that v 1 is an efﬁcient weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. Suppose next vˆ1 = v11 . Then vˆ must be efﬁcient and, because vˆ2 > v21 , this contradicts the deﬁnition of v 1 . Suppose ﬁnally that vˆ1 < v11 (and hence is inefﬁcient, because we otherwise have a contradiction to the choice of v 1 as the efﬁcient weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium that minimizes player 1’s payoff). Let (v1 , vˆ2 ) be efﬁcient. Then applying the necessity portion of proposition 4.6.2 to v, ˆ using † 1 2 F = F to obtain aˆ , and recalling the properties of a , we have max u1 (a1 , aˆ 21 ) ≤ vˆ1 < v1 ,

a1 ∈A1

u2 (aˆ 1 ) ≥ vˆ2 , max u2 (a12 , a2 ) ≤ v22 < vˆ2 ,

a2 ∈A2

and

u1 (a 2 ) ≥ v12 ≥ v1 .

Then aˆ 1 , a 2 and (v1 , vˆ2 ) satisfy the sufﬁcient conditions from proposition 4.6.2 for there to exist a pure-strategy weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium with payoff (v1 , vˆ2 ). By construction, this payoff is efﬁcient. This contradicts the efﬁciency of v 1 (if v1 > v11 ) or the other elements of the deﬁnition of v 1 (if v1 ≤ v11 ). ■

4.6

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141

Renegotiation

Renegotiation-proof equilibria are so named because they purportedly survive any attempt by the players to switch to another equilibrium. In general, the players will have different preferences over the possible alternative equilibria, giving rise to a bargaining problem. The emphasis on efﬁciency in renegotiation proofness reﬂects a presumption that the players could agree on replacing an equilibrium with another that gives everyone a higher payoff. However, given the potential conﬂicts of interest, this belief in agreement may be optimistic. Might not a deal on a superior equilibrium be scuttled by player i’s attempt to secure an equilibrium that is yet better for him? It is not clear we can answer without knowing more about how bargaining proceeds. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1993) take an alternative approach to renegotiation proofness that focuses on the implied bargaining. Their view is that if player i can point to an alternative equilibrium in which every player (including i) earns a higher payoff after every history than i currently earns, then i can make a compelling case for switching to the alternative equilibrium. For an equilibrium σ deﬁne vi (σ ) = inf {Ui (σ |ht ) : ht ∈ H }. Definition An equilibrium σ ∗ is a consistent bargaining equilibrium if there is no alternative

4.6.4 subgame-perfect equilibrium σ with mini {vi (σ )} > mini {vi (σ ∗ )}.

Hence, the consistent bargaining criterion rejects an equilibrium if it could reach a continuation game with one player whose continuation payoff is lower than every continuation payoff in some alternative equilibrium. Notice the comparisons embedded in this notion are no longer based on dominance. It sufﬁces to reject an equilibrium that it fails the test for one player, though this player must make comparisons with every other player’s payoffs in the proposed alternative equilibrium. A player for whom there is such an alternative equilibrium promising a higher payoff in every circumstance is viewed as having a winning case for abandoning the current one. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1993) apply this concept only to symmetric games. Symmetry is not required for this concept to be well deﬁned or to exist, but helps in interpreting the payoff comparisons across players as natural comparisons the players might make. Example Consider the battle of the sexes game of ﬁgure 4.6.10. With the help of a public

4.6.6 correlating device, we can construct an equilibrium in which TL and BR are each played with equal probability in each period, for expected payoffs of (2, 2). It is also clear that there is no equilibrium with a higher total payoff, so this equilibrium is the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium. We use this game to explain the need for a comparison across players’ payoffs in this notion. Suppose that we suggested that an equilibrium σ ∗ should

L

R

T

1, 3

0, 0

B

0, 0

3, 1

Figure 4.6.10 A battle-of-the-sexes game.

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How Long Is Forever?

be a consistent bargaining equilibrium if there is no alternative subgame-perfect equilibrium σ and player i with vi (σ ) > vi (σ ∗ ). Then notice that there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium σ 1 in which BR is played after every history, and hence v1 (σ 1 ) = 3. There exists another equilibrium σ 2 that features TL after every history and hence v2 (σ 2 ) = 3. Given the infeasibility of payoffs (3, 3), this ensures that there would be no consistent bargaining equilibrium. This result illustrates the intuition surrounding a consistent bargaining equilibrium. A player i has a persuasive objection to an equilibrium, not simply when there is an alternative equilibrium under which that player invariably fares better, but when there is an alternative under which every player invariably fares better than i currently does. In the former case, the player is arguing that he would prefer an equilibrium in which things work out better for him, whereas in the latter he can argue that he is being asked to endure an outcome that no one need endure. ●

Example We consider the three versions of the prisoners’ dilemmas, shown in ﬁgure 4.6.11.

4.6.7 The ﬁrst two are familiar, and the third makes it most attractive to shirk when the opponent is exerting effort. Consider an equilibrium path with a value vi to player i. We use the possibility of public correlation to assume that this value is received in every period, simplifying the calculations. Let i be the increase in player i’s current payoff that can be achieved by deviating from equilibrium play. Restrict attention to simple strategies, and let v˜i be the value of the resulting punishment. We can further assume that this punishment takes the form of a ﬁnite number of periods of mutual shirking, followed by a return to the equilibrium path. This ensures that the continuation payoff provided by the punishment is lowest in its initial period, and that the only nontrivial incentive constraint is the condition that play along the equilibrium path be optimal, which can be rearranged to give v˜i ≤ vi −

1−δ i . δ

Let us focus on the case of δ = 1/2, so that the incentive constraint becomes v˜i ≤ vi − i .

E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

E

S −1, 3

E

3, 3

0, 0

S

4, −1

S

E

−1, 4

E

2, 2

1, 1

S

4, −1

S −1, 4 0, 0

Figure 4.6.11 Three prisoners’ dilemma games. In the left game, the

incentives to shirk rather than exert effort are independent of the opponent’s action. The incentive to shirk is strongest when the opponent shirks in the middle game, and strongest when the opponent exerts effort in the right game.

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The search for a consistent bargaining equilibrium thus becomes the search for an equilibrium featuring a pair of values (vi , v˜i ) with the property that (because v˜i ≤ vi ) no other equilibrium features continuation values that all exceed v˜i . Now consider the prisoners’ dilemma in the left panel of ﬁgure 4.6.11. Here, i is ﬁxed at 1, independently of the opponents’ actions. This ﬁxes the relationship between vi and v˜i , for any equilibrium. Finding a consistent bargaining equilibrium now becomes a matter of ﬁnding the equilibrium with the largest value of v˜i . Given the ﬁxed relationship between vi and v˜i , this is equivalent to ﬁnding the equilibrium that maximizes vi . This calls for permanent effort and equilibrium payoffs (2, 2). This is the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium outcome in this game. In the middle game, the incentives to shirk now depend on the equilibrium actions, so that i is no longer ﬁxed. Finding a consistent bargaining equilibrium again requires ﬁnding the equilibrium with the largest value of v˜i . Moreover, i is larger the more likely one’s opponent is to shirk. This reinforces the fact that maximizing v˜i calls for maximizing vi . As a result, a consistent bargaining equilibrium again requires that vi be maximized, and hence the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium again calls for payoffs (2, 2). In the right game, the incentives to shirk are strongest when the opponent exerts effort. Hence, i becomes smaller the more likely is the opponent to shirk. It is then no longer the case that the equilibrium maximizing v˜i , and hence providing our candidate for a consistent bargaining equilibrium, is also the equilibrium that maximizes vi . Instead, the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium here calls for the two players to attach equal probability (again, with the help of a public correlating device) to ES and SE. Notice that equilibrium is inefﬁcient, with expected payoffs of 3/2 rather than the expected payoffs (2, 2) provided by mutual effort. To see that this is the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium, notice that the incentive constraint for the proposed equilibrium must deter shirking when the public correlation has selected the agent in question to exert effort and the opponent to shirk. A deviation to shirking under these circumstances brings a payoff gain of 1, so that the punishment value v˜i must satisfy v˜i ≤ vi − i =

3 2

− 1 = 12 .

The proposed equilibrium thus has continuation values of 3/2 and 1/2. Any equilibrium featuring higher continuation values must sometimes exhibit mutual effort. Here, the incentive constraint is v˜i ≤ vi − i = vi − 2. Because this incentive constraint must hold for both players, at least one player must face a continuation payoff of 0. This ensures that no such equilibrium can yield a collection of continuation values which are all strictly larger than 1/2. As a result, the equilibrium that mixes over outcomes SE and ES is the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium. ●

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5 Variations on the Game

An important motivation for work with repeated games, as with all economic models, is that the repeated game is an analytically convenient model of a more complicated reality. This chapter explores some variations of the canonical repeated-game model in which the strategic interactions are not literally identical from period to period.

5.1

Random Matching

We begin with a setting in which every player shares some of the characteristics of a short-lived player and some of a long-lived player.1 Our analysis is based on the familiar prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 1.2.1, reproduced in ﬁgure 5.1.1. The phrase “repeated prisoners’ dilemma” refers to a single pair of long-lived players who face each other in each period. Here, we study a model with an even number M ≥ 4 of players. In each period, the M players are matched into M/2 pairs to play the game. Matchings are independent across periods, with each possible conﬁguration of pairs equally likely in each period. Each matched pair then plays the prisoners’ dilemma, at which point we move to the next period with current matches dissolved and the players entered into a new matching process. We refer to such a game as a matching game. A common interpretation is a market where people are matched to complete bilateral trades in which they may either act in good faith or cheat. Players in the matching game discount their payoffs at rate δ and maximize the average discounted value of payoffs. In any given match, both players appear to be effectively short-lived, in the sense that they play one another once and then depart. Were this literally the end of the story, we would have a collection of ordinary prisoners’ dilemma stage games with the obvious (and only) equilibrium outcome of shirking at every opportunity. However, the individual interactions in the matching game are not perfectly isolated. With positive probability, each pair of matched players has a subsequent rematch. Given enough time, the matching process will almost certainly bring them together again. But if the population is sufﬁciently large, the probability of a rematch in the near future will be sufﬁciently small as to have a negligible effect on current incentives. In that event, mutual shirking appears to be the only equilibrium outcome. 1. The basic model is due to Kandori (1992a). Our elaboration is due to Ellison (1994), which allows for a public correlating device.

145

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E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 5.1.1 Prisoners’ dilemma.

5.1.1 Public Histories There may still be hope for outcomes other than mutual shirking. Much hinges on the information players have about others’ past play. We ﬁrst consider the public-history matching game, in which in every period each player observes the actions played in every match. A period t history is then a t-tuple of outcomes, each of which consists of an (M/2)-tuple of pairs of actions. Because histories are public, just as in the standard perfect-monitoring repeated game, every history leads to a subgame. Consequently, the appropriate equilibrium concept is, again, subgame perfection. Proposition An outcome a = (a 0 , a 1 , . . .) ∈ A∞ is an equilibrium outcome in the repeated

5.1.1 prisoners’ dilemma if and only if there is an equilibrium in the public-history matching game in which action proﬁle a t is played by every pair of matched players in period t. The idea of the proof is that any deviation from a in the public-history matching game can prompt the most severe punishments possible from the repeated game. This can be done despite the fact that partners are scrambled each period, because histories are public. Because deviations from outcome a are deterred by the punishments of the equilibrium supporting outcome a in the repeated game, they are also deterred by the (possibly more severe) punishments of the matching game. This is essentially the argument lying behind optimal penal codes (section 2.6.1). Though interest often focuses on the prisoners’ dilemma, the argument holds in general for two-player games. Proof Let a be an equilibrium outcome in the repeated prisoners’ dilemma and σ the

corresponding equilibrium proﬁle. Let σ be a strategy proﬁle that duplicates σ except that at any history ht = at , σ prescribes that every player shirk. Because perpetual mutual shirking is an optimal punishment in the prisoners’ dilemma, from Corollary 2.6.1, σ is also a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game with outcome a. We now deﬁne a strategy proﬁle σ for the public-history matching game. Apair of players matched in period t chooses action proﬁle a t if every pair of matched players in every period τ < t has chosen proﬁle a τ . Otherwise, the players shirk. Notice that the publicness of the histories in the public-history matching game makes this strategy proﬁle feasible. Notice also that these strategies accomplish the goal of producing proﬁle a t in each match in each period t. It remains to show that the proposed strategies are a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the public-history matching game.

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147

Consider a player in the public-history matching game, in period t, with a τ having been played in every match in every period τ < t. Let the resulting history be called hˆ t and let ht be the corresponding history (i.e., at ), in the repeated game. Then we need only note that the optimality of action proﬁle a t in the matching game is equivalent to Ui (σ |ht ) ≥ Ui (σi , σ−i |ht ), for all repeated-game strategies σi , where Ui is the repeated-game payoff function. This is simply the observation that the player faces precisely the same future play, with or without a deviation, in the matching game as in the repeated game. The optimality conditions for the repeated game thus imply the corresponding optimality conditions for the full-information matching game. Similar reasoning gives the converse. ■

There is thus nothing special about having the same players matched with each other in each period of a repeated game, as long as sufﬁcient information about previous play is available. What matters in the matching game is that player i be punished in the future for current deviations, regardless of whether the punishment is done by the current partner or someone else. In the equilibrium we have constructed, a deviation from the equilibrium path is observed by all and trips everyone over to the punishment. Having one’s partner enter the punishment sufﬁces to deter the deviation in the repeated game, and having the remainder of the population do so sufﬁces in the matching game. Why would someone against whom a player has never played punish the player? Because it is an equilibrium to do so, and failing to do so brings its own punishment. 5.1.2 Personal Histories We now consider the personal-history game. We consider the extreme case in which at the beginning of period t, player i’s history consists only of the actions played in each of the previous t matches in which i has been involved. Player i does not know the identities of the partners in the earlier matches, nor does he know what has transpired in any other match.2 Hence, a period t personal history is an element of At , where A = {EE, SE, ES, SS}. In analyzing this game, we cannot simply study subgame-perfect equilibria, because there are no nontrivial subgames, and so subgame perfection is no more restrictive than Nash. The appropriate notion of sequential rationality in this setting is sequential equilibrium. Though originally introduced for ﬁnite extensive form games by Kreps and Wilson (1982b), the notion has a straightforward intuitive description in this setting: A strategy proﬁle is a sequential equilibrium if, after every personal history, player i is best responding to the behavior of the other players, given beliefs over the personal histories of the other players that are “consistent” with the personal history that player i has observed. We are interested in the possible existence of a sequential equilibrium of the personal-history game in which players always exert effort. Figure 5.1.2 displays the candidate equilibrium strategies, where q ∈ [0, 1] is to be determined; denote the 2. In particular, player i does not know if he has been previously matched with his current partner.

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EE

ES , SE , SS

wE w

(q ) (1 − q )

wS

0

(1 − q ) (q)

Figure 5.1.2 The individual automaton describing a single player i’s strategy σˆ i

for the personal history game. Transitions not labeled by a strategy proﬁle occur for all strategy proﬁles. Transitions labeled by (·) are random and are conditioned on ω, the realization of a public random variable, returning the automaton to state wE if ω > q; the probability of that transition is 1 − q.

strategy proﬁle by σˆ . In contrast to the other automata we use in part I but in a preview of our work with private strategies and private-monitoring games, an automaton here describes the strategy of a single player rather than a strategy proﬁle, with one such automaton associated with each player (see remark 2.3.1). The actions governing the transitions in the automaton are those of the player and the partner in the current stage game. The transitions are also affected by a public random variable, which allows the players in the population to make perfectly correlated transitions. Each player’s automaton begins in state wE , where the player exerts effort. If the player or the player’s partner shirks, then a transition is made to state wS , and to shirking, unless the realization ω ∈ [0, 1] of the uniformly distributed public random variable is larger than q, in which case no transition is made. The automaton remains in state wS until at some future date ω > q. The public randomization thus ensures that in every period, there is probability 1 − q that every player returns to state wE of their automaton. With probability q, every player proceeds with a transition based on his personal history. Under these strategies, any deviation to shirking sets off a contagion of further shirking. In the initial stages of this contagion, the number of shirkers approximately doubles every period (as long as ω < q), as the relatively small number of shirkers tend to meet primarily partners who have not yet been contaminated by shirking. We think of the public correlation device as occasionally (and randomly) pushing a “reset button” that ends the contagion. Consider ﬁrst a player who has observed only mutual effort. Then, he is in state wE . Because he does not observe the personal history of his current match, he also does not know her current state. However, the only belief about her personal history that is consistent with his personal history and the proﬁle σˆ is that she also has observed only mutual effort and so is in state wE . Suppose now that a player has observed his partner in the last period play S, and ω > q. Then again, because ω is public, player i must believe that every other players’ current state is wE . On the other hand, if ω ≤ q, then the player’s current state is wS . If the previous period was the initial period, sequentiality requires player i to believe that his period 0 partner unilaterally deviated, and at the end of the period 0, all players except player i and his period 0 partner are in state wE , whereas the remaining two

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players are in state wS . Consequently, in period 1, he is rematched with his previous partner with probability 1/(M − 1), and with complementary probability, is matched with a player in state wE . However, if this observation occurs much later in the game, sequentiality would allow player i to believe that the original deviation occurred in period 0 and had spread throughout most of the population. At the same time, if in every period after observing S, ω ≤ q, player i must believe that at least one other player has observed a personal history leaving that player in state wS . As will be clear from the proof, the most difﬁcult incentive constraint to satisfy is that player i, in state wS , shirk when he believes that exactly one other player is in state wS . Proposition There exists δ < 1 such that, for any δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a value of q = q(δ)

5.1.2 such that σˆ (the proﬁle of strategies in ﬁgure 5.1.2) is a sequential equilibrium of the personal-history matching game. Proof Let V (S , δ, q) be the expected value of a player i ∈ S ⊂ {1, . . . , M} when the

players in S are in state wS and the remaining players are in state wE , given discount factor δ and probability q(δ) = q. Given the uniformity of the matching process, this value depends only on the number of players in state wS and is independent of their identities and the identity of player i ∈ S . We take i to be player 1 unless otherwise speciﬁed and often take S to be Sk ≡ {1, . . . , k}. We begin by identifying two sufﬁcient conditions for the proposed strategy proﬁle to be an equilibrium. The ﬁrst condition is that player 1 prefer not to shirk when in state wE . Player 1 then believes every other player (including his partner) to also be in state wE , as speciﬁed by the equilibrium strategies, either because no shirking has yet occurred or because no shirking has occurred since the last realization ω > q. This gives an incentive constraint of 2 ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ[(1 − q)2 + qV (S2 , δ, q)], or 1≤

δq [2 − V (S2 , δ, q)]. 1−δ

(5.1.1)

The second condition is that player 1 must prefer not to exert effort while in state wS . Because exerting effort increases the likelihood of effort from future partners, this constraint is not trivial. In this case, player 1 cannot be certain of the state of his partner and may be uncertain as to how many other players are in state wS of their automata. Notice, however, that if player 1’s partner shirks in the current interaction, then exerting effort only reduces player 1’s current payoff without retarding the contagion to shirking and hence is suboptimal. If there are to be any gains from exerting effort when called on to shirk, they must come against a partner who exerts effort. If player 1 shirks against a partner who exerts effort, the number of players in state wS next period (conditional on ω < q) is larger by 1 (player 1’s partner) than it would be if player 1 exerts effort. Because we are concerned with the situation in which player 1 is in state wS and meets a partner in state wE , there must be at least two players in the population in state wS (player

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1 and his previous partner). Hence, it sufﬁces for shirking to be optimal that, for all k ≥ 2,3 (1 − δ)3 + δ[(1 − q)2 + qV (Sk+1 , δ, q)] ≥ (1 − δ)2 + δ[(1 − q)2 + qV (Sk , δ, q)], where Sk is the set of players in state wS next period if player 1 exerts effort, and Sk+1 is the set in state wS if player 1 shirks. Rearranging, this is 1≥

δq [V (Sk , δ, q) − V (Sk+1 , δ, q)]. 1−δ

(5.1.2)

We now proceed in two steps. We ﬁrst show that there exists δ such that for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), we can ﬁnd a q(δ) ∈ [0, 1] such that (5.1.1) holds with equality, that is, players are indifferent between shirking and exerting effort on the induced path. Note that in that case, (5.1.2) holds for k = 1, because V (S1 , δ, q) = 2 is the value to a player when all other players are in state wE , and the player deviates to S. We then show that if (5.1.2) holds for any value k, it also holds strictly for any larger value k . In particular, when a player is indifferent between shirking and exerting effort on the induced path, after deviating, that player now strictly prefers to shirk because the earlier deviation has triggered the contagion. Step 1. Fix q = 1 and consider how the right side of (5.1.1) varies in the discount

factor, δ [2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)] = 0, δ→0 (1 − δ) δ [2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)] = ∞. lim δ→1 (1 − δ) lim

and

The ﬁrst equality follows from noting that V (S2 , δ, 1) ∈ [0, 3] for all δ. The second follows from noting that V (S2 , δ, 1) approaches 0 as δ approaches 1, because under σˆ with q = 1, eventually every player is in state wS , and hence the expected stage-game payoffs converge to 0, at a rate independent of δ. Because δ (1−δ) [2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)] is continuous, there is then (by the intermediate value δ [2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)] = 1, and hence at which theorem) a value of δ at which 1−δ (5.1.1) holds with equality when q = 1. Denote this value by δ, and then take q(δ) = 1. Summarizing, 1=

δ q(δ)[2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)]. (1 − δ)

(5.1.3)

We now show that (5.1.1) holds for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), for suitable q(δ). We ﬁrst acquire the tools for summarizing key aspects of a history of play. Fix a period and a history of play, and consider the continuation game induced by that history. Let ξ be a speciﬁcation of which players are matched in the period 0 (of the continuation 3. In fact, it would sufﬁce to have k ≥ 3 because there are at least three players in state wS next period (including the current partner of the other shirker). However, as will become clear, it is convenient to work with the stronger requirement, k ≥ 2.

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Random Matching

game) and in each future period. Let i(j, t, ξ ) denote the partner of player j in period t under the matching ξ . We now recursively construct a sequence of sets, beginning with an arbitrary set S ⊂ {1, . . . , M}. For any set of players S , let T0 (S , ξ ) = {1, . . . , M} \ S Tt+1 (S , ξ ) = {j ∈ Tt (S , ξ ) | i(j, t, ξ ) ∈ Tt (S , ξ )}.

and

In our use of this construction, S is the set of players who enter the continuation game in state wS , with the remaining players in state wE . The state Tt (S , ξ ) then identiﬁes the players that are still in state wE of their automata in period t, given that the public reset to state wE has not occurred. Deﬁne V (S , δ, q | ξ ) to be the continuation value of player i ∈ S when the players in set S (only) are in state wS , given matching realization ξ . Hence, V (S , δ, q) is the expectation over ξ of V (S , δ, q | ξ ). Let Sk = {1, . . . , k} denote the ﬁrst k players, and suppose we are calculating player 1’s (∈ S ) value in V (Sk , δ, q | ξ ). Then, V (Sk , δ, q | ξ ) − V (Sk+1 , δ, q | ξ ) =

∞ (1 − δ)q t δ t 3χ{τ :i(1,τ,ξ )∈Tτ (Sk ,ξ )\Tτ (Sk+1 ,ξ )} (t),

(5.1.4)

t=0

where χC is the indicator function, χC (t) = 1 if t ∈ C and 0 otherwise. Equation (5.1.4) gives the loss in continuation value to player 1, when entering a continuation game in state wS , from having k + 1 players rather than k players in state wS . δ q(δ)[V (S1 , δ, q) − V (S2 , δ, q)] It is immediate from (5.1.4) that (1−δ) depends only on the product qδ. For every δ ∈ [δ, 1), we can then deﬁne q(δ) = δ/δ. This ensures that (5.1.3) holds for every δ ∈ (δ, 1) and q(δ), and hence that (5.1.1) holds for every such pair. This completes our ﬁrst step. Step 2. We ﬁnish the argument by showing that (5.1.2) holds for all values k ≥ 2,

for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) and q = q(δ). For this, it sufﬁces to show that for all k ≥ 2 and s = 1, . . . , M − k − 1,

V (Sk , δ, q | ξ ) − V (Sk+1 , δ, q | ξ ) > V (Sk+s , δ, q | ξ ) − V (Sk+s+1 , δ, q | ξ ), for any realization ξ , that is, slowing the contagion to shirking is more valuable when fewer people are currently shirking. This statement follows immediately from (5.1.4) and the observation that, with strict containment for some t, Tt (Sk+s , ξ ) \ Tt (Sk+s+1 , ξ ) ⊂ Tt (Sk , ξ ) \ Tt (Sk+1 , ξ ). ■

Kandori (1992a) works without a public correlating device, thus examining the special case of this strategy proﬁle in which q = 1 and punishments are therefore permanent. As Ellison (1994) notes, the purpose of the reset button is to make punishments less severe, and hence make it less tempting for a player who has observed an incidence

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of shirking to continue exerting effort in an attempt to retard the contagion to shirking. Without public correlation, a condition on payoffs is needed to ensure that such an attempt to slow the contagion is not too tempting (Kandori 1992a, theorem 1). This condition requires that the payoff lost by exerting effort (instead of shirking) against a shirking partner be sufﬁciently large and requires this loss to grow without bound as the population size grows. If this payoff is ﬁxed, then effort will become impossible to sustain, no matter how patient the players, when the population is sufﬁciently large. In contrast, public correlation allows us to establish a lower bound δ for the discount factor that increases as does the size of the population, but with the property that for any population size there exist discount factors sufﬁciently large (but short of unity) that support equilibrium effort. Remark Although we have assumed that players cannot remember the identities of earlier

5.1.1 partners, the strategy proﬁle σˆ is still a sequential equilibrium when players are not so forgetful, with essentially the same proof. Harrington (1995) considers this extension as well as more general matching technologies. Okuno-Fujiwara and Postlewaite (1995) examine a related model in which each player is characterized by a history-dependent status that allows direct but partial transfer of information across encounters. Ahn and Suominen (2001) examine a model with indirect information transmission. ◆

5.2

Relationships in Context

In many situations, players are neither tied permanently to one another (as in a repeated game) nor destined to part at ﬁrst opportunity (as in the matching games of section 5.1). In addition, players often have some control over how long their relationship lasts and have views about the desirability of continuing that depend on the context in which the relationship is embedded. One may learn about one’s partner over the course of a relationship, making it either more or less attractive to continue the relationship. One might be quite willing to leave one’s job or partner if it is easy to ﬁnd another, but not if alternatives are scarce. One may also pause to reﬂect that alternative partners may be available because they have come from relationships whose continuation was not proﬁtable. This section presents some simple models that allow us to explore some of these issues. These models share the feature that in each period, players have the opportunity to terminate their relationship. Although many of the models in this section are not games (because there is no initial node), the notions of strategy and equilibrium apply in the obvious manner. The ability to end a relationship raises issues related to the study of renegotiation in section 4.6. Renegotiating to a new and better equilibrium may not be the only recourse available to players who ﬁnd themselves facing an undesirable continuation equilibrium. What if, instead, the players have the option of quitting the game? This possibility becomes more interesting if there is a relationship between the value of quitting a game and play in the game itself. Suppose, for example, that quitting

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Relationships in Context

153

a game allows one to begin again with a new partner. We must then jointly examine the equilibrium of the game and the implications of this equilibrium for the environment in which the game is played.

5.2.1 A Frictionless Market As our point of departure, we consider a market in which the stage game is the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 5.1.1 and players who terminate one relationship encounter no obstacles in forming a new one. We can view this model as a version of the personal-history matching model of section 5.1 with three modiﬁcations. First, we assume that there is an inﬁnite number of players, most commonly taken to correspond to a continuum such as the unit interval, with individual behavior unobserved (see remark 2.7.1). This precludes any possibility of using the types of contagion arguments explored in section 5.1 to support nontrivial equilibrium outcomes. Second, at the end of each period the players in each match simultaneously decide whether to continue or terminate their match. If both continue, they proceed to the next period. If either decides to terminate, then both enter a pool of unmatched players where they are paired with a new partner to begin play in the next period. The prospect for continuing play restores some hope of creating intertemporal incentives. Third, similar to section 4.2, at the end of each period (either before or after making their continuation decisions), each pair of matched players either “dies” (with probability 1 − δ) or survives until the next period (with probability δ).4 Agents who die are replaced by new players who join the pool of unmatched players.5 We assume that players do not discount, with the specter of death ﬁlling the role of discounting (section 4.2), though it costs only extra notation to add discounting as well. At the beginning of each period, each player is either matched or unmatched. Unmatched players are matched into pairs, and each (new or continuing) pair plays the prisoners’ dilemma. Agents in a continuing match observe the history of play in their own match, but players receive no information about new partners they meet in the matching pool. In particular, they cannot observe whether a partner is a new entrant to the unmatched pool or has come from a previous relationship. The ﬂow of new players into the pool of unmatched players ensures that this pool is never empty, and hence players who terminate a match can always anonymously rematch. Otherwise, the possibility arises that no player terminates a match in equilibrium, because there would be no possibility of ﬁnding a new match (because the matching pool is empty . . .). In this market, players who leave a match can wipe away any record of their past behavior and instantly ﬁnd a new partner. What effect does this have on equilibrium play? 4. It simpliﬁes the calculations to assume that if one player in a pair dies, so does the other. At the cost of somewhat more complicated expressions, we could allow the possibility that one player in a pair leaves the market while the other remains, entering the matching pool, without affecting the conclusions. 5. From the point of view of an individual player, the probability of death is random, but we exploit the continuum of players to assume that there is no aggregate uncertainty.

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We begin with two immediate observations. First, there exists an equilibrium in which every player shirks at every opportunity. Second, there is no equilibrium in which the equilibrium path of play features only effort. Suppose that there were such an equilibrium. A player could then increase his payoff by shirking in the current period. This shirking results in a lower continuation if the player remained matched with his current partner, but the player can instead terminate the current match, immediately ﬁnd a new partner, and begin play anew with a clean history and with a continuation equilibrium that prescribes continued effort. Consequently, shirking is a proﬁtable deviation. The difﬁculty here is that punishments can be carried out only within a match, whereas there is no penalty attached to abandoning a match to seek a new one. The public-history matching model of section 5.1 avoids this difﬁculty by allowing a player’s past to follow the player into the matching pool. The personal-history matching game provides players with less information about past play but exploits the ﬁniteness of the set of players to allow enough information transmission to support effort (with sufﬁcient patience). In the current model, no information survives the termination of a match, and there are no punishments that can sustain effort. 5.2.2 Future Benefits Players may be less inclined to shirk and run if new matches are not as valuable as current ones. Moreover, these differences in value may arise endogenously as a product of equilibrium play. In the simplest version of this, consider equilibrium strategies in which matched players shirk during periods 0, . . . , T − 1, begin to exert effort in period T , and exert thereafter. Any deviation from these strategies prompts both players to abandon the match and enter the matching pool. If a deviation from such strategies is ever to be optimal, it must be optimal in period T , the ﬁrst period of effort. It then sufﬁces that it is optimal to exert effort in period T (for a continuation payoff 2) instead of shirking, which requires: 2 ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ T +1 2, which we can solve for

1−δ 3. 1 − δ T +1 For δ > 1/2, the inequality is satisﬁed for T ≥ 1. Taking the limit as T → ∞, we ﬁnd that this inequality can be satisﬁed for ﬁnite T if the familiar inequality δ > 1/3 holds. Hence, as long as the effective continuation probability is sufﬁciently large to support the strict optimality of effort in the ordinary repeated prisoners’ dilemma, we can make the introductory shirking phase sufﬁciently long to support some effort when an exit option is added to the repeated game. Moreover, as the continuation probability δ approaches 1, we can set T = 1 and still preserve incentives. Hence, in the limit as δ → 1, the equilibrium value of δ2 converges to 2. Very patient players can come arbitrarily close to the payoff they could obtain by always exerting effort. An alternative interpretation is that the introductory phase may take place outside of the current relationship. Suppose that whenever a player returns to the matching pool, he must wait some number of periods T before beginning another match. Then 2≥

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the previous calculations apply immediately, indicating that effort can be supported within a match as long as T is sufﬁciently long relative to the incentives to shirk. This trade-off is the heart of the efﬁciency wage model of Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984). Efﬁciency wages, in the form of wages that offer a matched worker a continuation value higher than the expected continuation value of entering the pool of unemployed workers, create the incentives to exert effort rather than accept the risk of terminating the relationship that accompanies shirking. In Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984), the counterparts of the value of T as well as the payoffs in the prisoners’ dilemma are determined as part of a market equilibrium. Carmichael and MacLeod (1997) note that any technology for paying sunk costs can take the place of the initial T periods of shirking. Suppose players can burn a sum of money θ . Consider strategies prescribing that matched players initially exert effort if both have burned the requisite sum θ , with any deviation prompting termination to enter the matching pool. Once a pair of players have matched and burned their money, continued effort is optimal if 2 ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ(2 − (1 − δ)θ ), or θ≥

1 . δ

Hence, the sum to be burned must exceed the payoff premium to be earned by shirking rather than exerting effort against a cooperator. For these strategies to be an equilibrium, it must in turn be the case that the amount of money to be burned is less than the beneﬁts of the resulting effort, or (1 − δ)θ ≤ 2. These two constraints on θ can be simultaneously satisﬁed if δ ≥ 1/3. Notice that the efﬁciency loss of burning the money can be as small as (1 − δ)/δ, which becomes arbitrarily small as the continuation probability approaches 1. We seldom think of people literally burning money. Instead, this is a metaphor for an activity that is costly but creates no value. In some contexts, advertising is offered as an example. In the case of people being matched to form partnerships, it sufﬁces for the players to exchange gifts that are costly to give but have no value (other than sentimental) to the recipient. Wedding rings are often mentioned as an example. 5.2.3 Adverse Selection Ghosh and Ray (1996) offer a model in which returning to the matching pool is costly because it exposes players to adverse selection. We consider a simpliﬁed version of their argument. We now assume that players discount as well as face a probability that the game does not continue. There are two types of players, “impatient” players characterized by a discount factor of 0 and “patient” players characterized by a discount factor δ > 0. The pool of unmatched players will contain a mixture of patient and impatient players. Matching is random, with players able to neither affect the type of partner with whom they are matched nor observe this type. Once matched, their partners’ plays may allow

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them to draw inferences about their partner that will affect the relative payoffs of continuing or abandoning the match. Denote the continuation probability by ρ. The effective discount factor is then δρ, and we normalize accordingly payoffs by the factor (1 − δρ). We begin by assuming that the proportion of impatient types in the matching pool is exogenously ﬁxed at λ. Players who enter the matching pool are matched with a new partner in the next period. As usual, one conﬁguration of equilibrium strategies is that every player shirks at every opportunity, coupled with any conﬁguration of decisions about continuing or abandoning matches. We are interested in an alternative equilibrium in which impatient players again invariably shirk but patient players initially exert effort, continuing to do so as long as they are matched with a partner who exerts effort. Patient players respond to any shirking by terminating the match. Patient players thus screen their partners, abandoning impatient ones to seek new partners while remaining and exerting effort with patient ones. The temptation to shirk against a patient partner is deterred by the fact that such shirking requires a return to the matching pool, where one may have to sort through a number of impatient players before ﬁnding another patient partner. The incentive facing the impatient players in this equilibrium are trivial, and they must always shirk in any equilibrium. Suppose a patient player is in the middle of a match with a partner who is exerting effort and hence who is also patient. Equilibrium requires that continued effort be optimal, rather than shirking and then returning to the matching pool. Let V be the value of entering the pool of unmatched players. Then the optimality of effort requires: 2 ≥ (1 − δρ)3 + δρV .

(5.2.1)

Now consider a patient player at the beginning of a match with a partner of unknown type, being impatient with probability λ. If it is to be optimal for the patient player to exert effort, we must have (1 − λ)2 + λ[(1 − δρ)(−1) + δρV ] ≥ (1 − λ)[(1 − δρ)3 + δρV ] + λδρV , or

λ (1 − δρ) ≥ (1 − δρ)3 + δρV . 1−λ The latter constraint is clearly more stringent than that given by (5.2.1), for exerting effort in a continuing relationship. Hence, if it is optimal to exert in the ﬁrst period, continued effort against a patient partner is optimal. We thus need only investigate initial effort. Let VE and VS be the expected payoff to a player who exerts effort and shirks, respectively, in the initial period of a match. Then we have 2−

VE = 2(1 − λ) + λ[(1 − δρ)(−1) + δρV ]

(5.2.2)

VS = (1 − λ)[(1 − δρ)3 + δρV ] + λδρV .

(5.2.3)

and

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If we are to have an equilibrium in which patient players exert effort in the initial period, then VE = V , and we can solve (5.2.2) to ﬁnd VE =

2 − 3λ + δρλ . 1 − δρλ

(5.2.4)

A necessary and sufﬁcient condition for the optimality of exerting effort is obtained by inserting V = VE in (5.2.2)–(5.2.3) to write VE ≥ VS as VE ≥ (1 − λ)[(1 − δρ)3 + δρVE ] + λδρVE , and then using (5.2.4) to solve for 3δρλ2 − 4δρλ + 1 ≤ 0. If δρ < 3/4, there are no real values of λ that satisfy this inequality. Effort cannot be sustained without sufﬁcient patience. If δρ ≥ 3/4, then this condition is satisﬁed, and ¯ for some effort is optimal, for values of λ ∈ [λ, λ], 0 < λ < λ¯ < 1. Hence, if effort is to be optimal, the proportion of impatient players λ must be neither too high nor too low. If λ is low, and hence almost every player is patient, then there is little cost to entering the matching pool in search of a new partner, making it optimal to shirk in the ﬁrst round of a match and then abandon the match. If λ is very high, so that almost all players are impatient, then the probability that one’s new partner is patient is so low as to not make it worthwhile risking initial effort, no matter how bleak the matching pool. What ﬁxes the value of λ, the proportion of impatient types in the matching pool? We illustrate one possibility here. First, we assume that departing players are replaced by new players of whom φ are impatient and 1 − φ patient.6 Let and h be the mass of players in the unmatched pool in each period who are impatient and patient, respectively. We then seek values of and h, and hence λ = /( + h), for which we have a steady state, in the sense that the values and h remain unchanged from period to period, given the candidate equilibrium strategies.7 Let zHH , zHL , and zLL be the mass of matches in each period that are between two patient players, one patient and one impatient player, or between two impatient players. Notice that these must sum to 1/2 because there are half as many matches as players. In a steady state, = φ(1 − ρ) + ρ(zHL + 2zLL )

(5.2.5)

h = (1 − φ)(1 − ρ) + ρzHL ,

(5.2.6)

and

6. Recall that there is a continuum of players, of mass 1, and we assume there is no aggregate uncertainty. 7. A more ambitious analysis would ﬁx and h at arbitrary initial values and allow them to evolve. This is signiﬁcantly more difﬁcult, because the value of λ is then no longer constant, and hence our preceding analysis inapplicable.

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Variations on the Game

reﬂecting the ﬂow of players into the unmatched pool from replacing departing players (the ﬁrst term in each case) or from terminating matches (the second term). In each period, surviving matches between patient players as well as newly formed matches from players in the unmatched pool form matches in proportions, h2 1 , zHH = ρzHH + (h + ) 2 (h + )2 1 2h , zHL = (h + ) 2 (h + )2 and zLL =

2 1 (h + ) . 2 (h + )2

Substituting into (5.2.5), we obtain = φ(1 − ρ) + ρ =⇒ = φ, whereas substituting into (5.2.6), we obtain h h+ hφ = (1 − φ)(1 − ρ) + ρ ≡ f (h). h+φ

h = (1 − φ)(1 − ρ) + ρ

Because f (0) > 0, f (1 − φ) < 1 − φ, and f (h) ∈ (0, 1), f has a unique ﬁxed point, ¯ that and this point is strictly smaller than 1 − φ. It remains to verify that λ ∈ [λ, λ], is, that the steady state is indeed an equilibrium. As for the exogenous λ case, extreme values of φ preclude equilibrium. Fix ρ and δ so that δρ > 3/4. As φ → 0, → 0 while h → 1 − ρ and so λ → 0. On the other hand, as φ → 1, → 1 while h → 0 and so λ → 1. From continuity, there will be intermediate values of φ for which the implied steady-state values of h and are consistent with equilibrium. In equilibrium, the proportion of patient players in the unmatched pool falls short of the proportion of new entrants who are patient, ensuring that the unmatched pool is biased toward impatient players (λ > φ). This reﬂects adverse selection in the process by which players reach the unmatched pool. Patient players tend to lock themselves into partnerships that keep them out of the unmatched pool, whereas impatient players continually ﬂow back into the pool. 5.2.4 Starting Small In section 5.2.2, we saw that patient players have an incentive to not behave opportunistically in the presence of attractive outside options when the value of the relationship increases over time. In addition, the possibility that potential partners may be impatient can reduce the value of the outside option sufﬁciently to again provide patient players with an incentive to not behave opportunistically (section 5.2.3). Here we explore an adverse selection motivation, studied by Watson (1999, 2002), for “starting small.”8 8. Similar ideas appear in Diamond (1989).

5.2

■

159

Relationships in Context

We continue with the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 5.1.1. As in section 5.2.3, we assume that players can come in two types, impatient and patient. The impatient type has a discount factor δ < 1/3, and the patient type has a discount factor δ¯ > 1/3. Because our focus is on the players’ response to this adverse selection within a relationship (rather than how their behavior responds to the adverse selection within the population), we assume each player is impatient with exogenous probability λ. Each player knows his own type. Similarly, at the end of each period, each player has the option of abandoning the relationship and, on doing so, receives an exogenous outside option. The impatient type’s option is worth 0, and a patient type’s is worth V¯ ∈ (0, 2). As in section 5.1.2, the relevant equilibrium notion is sequential equilibrium. Because δ < 1/3, even if an impatient player knows he is facing a patient player playing grim trigger, the impatient player’s unique best reply is to shirk immediately. In other words, the immediate reward from shirking is too tempting for the impatient player. Consequently, the only equilibrium outcome of the repeated prisoner’s dilemma of ﬁgure 5.1.1, when one player is known to be impatient, is perpetual shirking. Thus, if the probability of the impatient type is sufﬁciently large, the only equilibrium outcome is again perpetual shirking. The new aspect considered in this section is that the scale of the relationship may change over time. Early periods involve conﬁdence building, whereas in later periods the players hope to reap the rewards of the relationship. To capture this, we study the game in ﬁgure 5.2.1. This partnership game extends the prisoners’dilemma by adding a moderate effort choice that lowers the cost from having a partner shirk while lowering the beneﬁt from effort. We consider separating strategies of the following form. Patient players choose M for T periods, and then exert effort E as long as their partner also does so, abandoning the match after any shirking. Impatient players always shirk and terminate play after the ﬁrst period of any game. What is required for these strategies to be optimal? There are two strategies that could be optimal for an impatient player. He could shirk in the ﬁrst period of a match, thereafter abandoning the match, or he could choose M until period T (if the partner does, abandoning the match otherwise), and then shirk in period T . Under the latter strategy, the player shirks at high stakes against a patient opponent, at the cost of

E

M

S

E

2, 2

0, 1

−1, 3

M

1, 0

2z, 2z

−z, 3z

S

3, −1

3z, −z

0, 0

Figure 5.2.1 A partnership game extending the prisoners’ dilemma, where z ∈ [0, 1].

160

Chapter 5

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Variations on the Game

delaying the shirking and the risk of being exploited by an impatient partner. The incentive constraint is given by (1 − λ)(1 − δ)3z ≥ (1 − λ)(1 − δ)

#T −1

$ δ 2z + δ 3 + λ(1 − δ)(−z). t

T

t=0

The left side is the payoff produced by immediate shirking. If z = 1, then the impatient player will always shirk immediately. There is then no gain from waiting for the chance to shirk at higher stakes. Alternatively, if z = 0, then the impatient player will surely wait until period T to shirk, because this is the only opportunity available to secure a positive payoff. For the patient player, the relevant choices are either to shirk immediately and then abandon the match or follow the equilibrium strategy, for an incentive constraint of ¯ (1 − λ)[(1 − δ)3z + δ¯V¯ ] + λδ¯V¯ T −1 t T ¯ ¯ + δ¯V¯ ]. δ¯ 2z + δ¯ 2 + λ[(1 − δ)(−z) ≤ (1 − λ) (1 − δ) t=0

The left side is again the payoff from immediate shirking. For any T , if δ¯ is sufﬁciently large, this incentive constraint will hold for any z ∈ (0, 1). Suppose δ¯ is sufﬁciently large that it holds for T = 1. We now evaluate the impact of varying z and T on the payoff of the patient player. In doing so, we view z as a characteristic of the partnership (perhaps one that could be designed in an effort to nurture the relationship), whereas T , of course, is a parameter describing the strategy proﬁle. We are thus asking what relationship the patient type prefers, noting that the answer depends on the attendant equilibrium. The derivative of the patient player’s payoff under the candidate equilibrium proﬁle with respect to z is given by " ! (1 − δ¯T ) ¯ −λ . (1 − δ) 2(1 − λ) ¯ (1 − δ) If λ < 2/3, then this derivative is positive, for any T . Patient players then prefer z to be as large as possible, leading to an optimum of z = 1 or T = 0 (and reinforcing the incentives of impatient players in the process). In this case, impatient players are sufﬁciently rare that it is optimal to simply bear the consequences of meeting such players, rather than taking steps to minimize the losses they inﬂict that also reduce the gains earned against impatient players. As a result, patient players would prefer that the interaction start at full size. If λ > 2/3, the derivative is negative for T = 1. In this case, an impatient player is sufﬁciently likely that the patient player prefers a smaller value of z and T = 1 to T = 0 to minimize the losses imposed by meeting an impatient type. The difﬁculty is that a small value of z, with T = 1, may violate the incentive constraint for the impatient player. Because the constraint holds strictly with z = 1, there will exist an interval [z1 , 1) for which the constraint holds. The patient player will prefer the equilibrium

5.3

■

161

Multimarket Interactions

E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S

E

−1, 3

E

3, 3

0, 0

S

4, −1

S −1, 4 0, 0

Figure 5.3.1 Prisoners’ dilemma stage games for two repeated games between players 1 and 2.

T = 1 for any z ∈ [z1 , 1) to the equilibrium with T = 0. We thus have a basis for starting small.9

5.3

Multimarket Interactions

Suppose that players 1 and 2 are engaged in more than one repeated game. The players may be ﬁrms who produce a variety of products and hence repeatedly compete in several markets. They may be agents who repeatedly bargain with one another on behalf of a variety of clients. How does this multitude of interactions affect the set of equilibrium payoffs? For example, if the players are ﬁrms, does the multimarket interaction enhance the prospects for collusion? One possibility is to view the games in isolation, conditioning behavior in each game only on the history of play in that game. In this case, any payoff that can be sustained as an equilibrium in one of the constituent repeated games can also be sustained as the equilibrium outcome of that game in the combined interaction. Putting the games together can thus never decrease the set of equilibrium payoffs. An alternative is to treat the constituent games as a single metagame, now allowing behavior in one game to be conditioned on actions in another game. It initially appears as if this must enlarge the set of possible payoffs. A deviation in one game can be punished in each of the other games, allowing the construction of more severe punishments that should seemingly increase the set of equilibrium payoffs. At the same time, however, the prospect arises of simultaneously deviating from equilibrium play in each of the constituent games, making deviations harder to deter. It is immediate that if the constituent games are identical, then the set of equilibrium payoffs in the metagame, averaged across constituent games, is precisely that of any single constituent game. If the constituent games differ, then the opportunity for crosssubsidization arises. We illustrate these points with an example. Consider the pair of prisoner’s dilemmas in ﬁgure 5.3.1. It is a familiar calculation that an expected payoff of (2, 2) can be achieved in the left game, featuring an equilibrium path of persistent effort, whenever δ ≥ 1/3, and that otherwise a payoff of (0, 0) is the only equilibrium possibility 9. There may exist yet better combinations of z and T > 1 for the patient player.

162

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■

Variations on the Game

(see section 2.5.2). A payoff of (3, 3), the result of persistent effort, is available in the right game if and only if δ ≥ 1/4. Suppose now that δ = 3/10. If the games are played separately, the largest symmetric equilibrium payoff, summed across the two games, is (3, 3), reﬂecting the fact that the left game features only mutual shirking as an equilibrium outcome, whereas effort can be supported in the right game. Now suppose that the two games are combined, with an equilibrium strategy of exerting effort in both games as long as no prior shirking in either game has occurred, and shirking in both games otherwise. To verify these are equilibrium strategies, we need only show that the most lucrative deviation, to simultaneously shirking in both games, is unproﬁtable. The equilibrium payoff from the two games is 5, and the deviation brings an immediate payoff of 7 followed by a future of zero payoffs, for an incentive constraint of 5 ≥ (1 − δ)7, which we solve for δ ≥ 2/7 ( 0, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), every subgame-perfect equilibrium of the continuation game induced by history ht gives an equilibrium payoff in excess of v ∗ − ε. If ht is the null history, this statement holds for ε = 0. Proof We proceed in three steps.

First, let ht be a history ending in a choice of ai∗ for player i (and hence t ≥ 1), with player j now called on to make a choice in period t. We show that continuation payoffs are at least v ∗ for each player. To establish this result, let v˜ be the inﬁmum over the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs, in a continuation game beginning in a period t ≥ 1, in which player j must choose a

5.4

■

171

Repeated Extensive Forms

current action and player i’s period t−1 choice is ai∗ . Because the game is one of pure coordination, this value must be the same for both players. One option open to player j is to choose aj∗ in the current period, earning a payoff of v ∗ in the current period, followed by a continuation payoff no lower than v. ˜ We thus have v˜ ≥ (1 − δ)v ∗ + δ v, ˜ allowing us to solve for

v˜ ≥ v ∗ .

Hence, if the action ai∗ or aj∗ is ever played, then the continuation payoffs to both players must be v ∗ . Second, we ﬁx an arbitrary history ht , including possibly the null history, with player j called on to move (or, in the case of the null history, with j being player 2, who does not move in the next period) and with no restriction on player i’s previous move (or on player 1’s concurrent move, in the case of the null history). Then one possibility is for player j to choose aj∗ . We have shown that this brings a continuation payoff, beginning in period t + 1, of v ∗ . Hence, the payoff to this action must be at least (1 − δ)m + δv ∗ , where m is the smallest stage-game payoff. Choosing δ=

v∗ − m − ε v∗ − m

then ensures that every subgame-perfect contniuation equilibrium gives a payoff at least v ∗ − ε. Third, we consider the null history. We show that player 2 prefers to choose a2∗ in the ﬁrst period, regardless of 1’s ﬁrst-period action, given subgame-perfect continuation play. The initial choice of a2∗ ensures that payoff v ∗ will be received in every period except the ﬁrst, for a payoff of at least (1 − δ)m + δv ∗ . Choosing any other action can give a payoff at most (1 − δ)[v + δv ] + δ 2 v ∗ , where v is the second-largest stage-game payoff. Choosing δ=

v − m v∗ − v

then sufﬁces for the optimality of player 2’s initial choice of a2∗ . Given that player 1 makes a new choice in period 1, it is immediate that 1 ﬁnds a1∗ optimal in the ﬁrst period. This sufﬁces for the result. ■

This ﬁnding contrasts with chapter 3’s folk theorem for repeated normal-form games. The key to the result is again the appearance of histories in which player i can choose an action, knowing that player j will not be able to make another choice until

172

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■

Variations on the Game

after observing i’s current choice. This allows player i to lead player j to coordination on the efﬁcient outcome. The asynchronous games considered here are a special case of the dynamic games examined in section 5.5. There, we developed a folk theorem for dynamic games. Why do we ﬁnd a different result here? The folk theorem for dynamic games makes use of player-speciﬁc punishments that are not available in the asynchronous games considered here. Given that there are only two players, why not rely on mutual minmaxing, rather than player-speciﬁc punishments, to create incentives? In the asynchronous game, player i’s current choice of ai∗ ensures future play of a ∗ . This in turn implies that player i will invariably choose ai∗ rather than minmax player j . Our only hope for inducing i to do otherwise would be to arrange future play to punish i for not minmaxing j , and the coordination game does not allow sufﬁcient ﬂexibility to do so. Conversely, the efﬁciency result obtained here is tied to the special structure of the coordination game, with the folk theorem for dynamic games appearing once one has the ability to impose player-speciﬁc punishments. 5.4.6 Simple Strategies We are often interested in characterizing equilibrium behavior as well as payoffs. Mailath, Nocke, and White (2004) note that simple strategies may no longer sufﬁce in extensive-form games. Instead, punishments may have to be tailored not only to the identity of a deviator but to the nature of the deviation as well. We must ﬁrst revisit what it means for a strategy to be simple. Deﬁnition 2.6.1, for normal-form games, deﬁned simple strategies in terms of outcome paths, consisting of an equilibrium outcome path and a punishment path for each player. The essence of the deﬁnition is that any unilateral deviation by player i, whether from the equilibrium path or one of the punishments, triggered the same player i punishment. Punishments thus depend on the identity of the transgressor, but neither the circumstances nor the nature of the transgression. As we saw in section 5.4.1, repeated extensive-form games have more information sets than repeated normal-form games, and so there are two candidates for the notion of simplicity. First observe that we cannot simply apply deﬁnition 2.6.1 because action proﬁles are not observed. We can still refer to an inﬁnite sequence of actions a as a (potential) punishment path for i. Let Y d (a) be the set of terminal nodes reached by (potentially a sequence of) unilateral deviations from the action proﬁle a, and let i(y) be the last player who deviated on the path (within the extensive form) to y ∈ Y d (a) (there is a unique last player by the deﬁnition of Y d (a)). Then, we say that a strategy proﬁle is uniformly simple if i’s punishment path after nodes y ∈ Y d (a) is constant on Yid (a) ≡ {y : i(y ) = i, y ∈ Y d (a)}. This notion requires that i’s intertemporal punishments not be tailored to either when the deviation occurred or the nature of the deviation. A weaker notion requires that the intertemporal punishments not be tailored to the nature of the deviation but can depend on when the deviation occurred. The set Yid (a) can be partitioned by the information sets h at which i’s deviation occurs; let Yhd (a) denote a typical member of the partition. We say that a strategy proﬁle is agent simple if i’s punishment path after nodes y ∈ Y d (a) is constant on Yhd (a) for all h.16 In other 16. The term is chosen by analogy with the agent-normal form, where each information set of an extensive form is associated with a distinct agent.

5.4

■

173

Repeated Extensive Forms

1 A B 1 5 5

Y

N

Y 10,9,1 10,0,9 N 10,0,1 0,0,0

Y

C

D

N

Y

E N

Y

N

10, 2,8 10,2,0 10,1,9 10,1,0 0,0,0 10,0,8 0,0,0 10,0,9 0,0,0

10,8,2 10,8,0 10,0, 2

Figure 5.4.8 Representation of an extensive-form game. Each normal-form game represents a simultaneous move subgame played by players 2 and 3.

words, the punishment path is independent of the nature of the deviation at h but can depend on h. We now describe an extensive form, illustrated in ﬁgure 5.4.8, and a subgameperfect equilibrium outcome of its repetition that cannot be supported using agentsimple strategy proﬁles. Player 1 moves ﬁrst. If player 1 chooses either B, C, D, or E, then players 2 and 3 play a simultaneous-move subgame, each choosing Y or N . We are interested in equilibria in which player 1 chooses A in the ﬁrst period. One such equilibrium calls for players 2 and 3 to both choose N after choices of B, C, D, or E. These choices make player 1’s ﬁrst-period choice of A a best response in the stage game, but are not a stage-game subgame-perfect equilibrium. To support A in period 0 as a choice for player 1, we proceed as follows. In period 0, player 1 chooses A and players 2 and 3 respond to any other choice with NN . From period 1 on, a single stagegame subgame-perfect equilibrium is played in each period, whose identity depends on ﬁrst-period play. Let “equilibrium x” for x ∈ {B, C, D, E} call for player 1 to choose x and players 2 and 3 to choose Y in each period. The continuation play as a function of ﬁrst-period actions is given in ﬁgure 5.4.9. Because A is a best response for player 1 in the ﬁrst period, and because every ﬁrst-period history leads to a continuation path consisting of stage-game subgame-perfect equilibria, verifying subgame perfection in the repeated game requires only ensuring that players 2 and 3 behave optimally out of equilibrium in the ﬁrst period. This is ensured by punishing player 2 and 3 for deviations, by selecting the relatively unattractive continuation equilibria B and E, respectively. If player 2 and 3 behave as prescribed in period 1, after a choice of B, C, D or E, then the relatively low-payoff player is rewarded by the selection from continuation equilibria C or D that is relatively lucrative for that player. If δ = 2/3, these strategies are a subgame-perfect equilibrium. However, the strategy proﬁle is not agent-simple because 1’s punishment path depends on the nature of 1’s deviation. Deviations by player 1 to either B or C are followed, given equilibrium play by players 2 and 3, by continuation equilibrium C. Deviations to D or E are followed by continuation equilibrium D. This absence of simplicity is necessary to obtain the payoffs provided by this equilibrium. Consider a deviation by player 1 to B, and consider player 2’s incentives. Choosing Y produces a payoff of 9 in the current period, followed by an equilibrium giving player 2 her minmax value of 1, and hence imposing the most severe possible punishment on player 2. If 2’s choice of N , for a current payoff of 0, is to be optimal, the resulting continuation payoff v2 must satisfy δv2 ≥ (1 − δ)9 + δ,

174

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Variations on the Game

First-period proﬁle

Continuation

First-period proﬁle

Continuation

A

B

BNN, BYY

C

DNN, DYY

D

BYN

E

DYN

E

BNY

B

DNY

B

CNN, CYY

C

ENN, EYY

D

CYN

E

EYN

E

CNY

B

ENY

B

Figure 5.4.9 The continuation play of the equilibrium for the repeated game.

or v2 ≥

11 2.

Player 1’s deviation to B must then be followed by a continuation path giving player 2 a payoff of at least 11/2. A symmetric argument shows that the same must be true for player 3 after 1’s deviation to E. However, there is no stage-game action proﬁle that gives players 2 and 3 both at least 11/2. Hence, if player 1 is ever to play A, then deviations to B and E must lead to different continuation paths—the equilibrium strategy cannot be agent simple. Finally, player 1’s choice of A gives payoffs of (1, 5, 5), a feat that is impossible if 1 conﬁnes himself to choices in {B, C, D, E}. The payoffs provided by this equilibrium can thus be achieved only via strategies that are not agent simple.

5.5

Dynamic Games: Introduction

This section allows the possibility that the stage game changes from period to period for a ﬁxed set of players, possibly randomly and possibly as a function of the history of play. Such games are referred to as dynamic games or, when stressing that the stage game may be a random function of the game’s history, stochastic games. The analysis of a dynamic game typically revolves around a set of game states that describe how the stage game varies from period to period. Unless we need to distinguish between game states and states of an automaton (automaton states), we refer to game states simply as states (see remark 5.5.2). Each state determines a stage game, captured by writing payoffs as a function of states and actions. The speciﬁcation of the game is completed by a rule for how the state changes over the course of play. In many applications, the context in which the game arises suggests what appears to be a natural candidate for the set of states. It is accordingly common to treat

5.5

■

Dynamic Games: Introduction

175

the set of states as an exogenously speciﬁed feature of the environment. This section proceeds in this way. However, the appropriate formulation of the set of states is not always obvious. Moreover, the notion of a state is an intermediate convention that is not required for the analysis of dynamic games. Instead, we can deﬁne payoffs directly as functions of current and past actions, viewing states as tools for describing this function. This suggests that instead of inspecting the environment and asking which of its features appear to deﬁne states, we begin with the payoff function and identify the states that implicitly lie behind its structure. Section 5.6 pursues this approach. With these tools in hand, section 5.7 examines equilibria in dynamic games.

5.5.1 The Game There are n players, numbered 1, . . . , n. There is a set of states S, with typical state s. Player i has the compact set of actions Ai ⊂ Rk , for some k. Player i’s payoffs are given by the continuous function ui : S × A → R. Because payoffs are state dependent, the assumption that Ai is state independent is without loss of generality: If state s has action set Asi , deﬁne Ai ≡ s Asi and set u˜ i (s, a) = ui (s, a s ). Players discount at the common rate δ. The evolution of the state is given by a continuous transition function q : S × A ∪ {∅} → (S), associating with each current state and action proﬁle a probability distribution from which the next state is drawn; q(∅) is the distribution over initial states. This formulation captures a number of possibilities. If S is a singleton, then we are back to the case of a repeated game. If q(s, a) is nondegenerate but constant in a, then we have a game in which payoffs are random variables whose distribution is constant across periods. If S = {0, 1, 2, . . .} and q(s , a) puts probability one on s+1 , we have a game in which the payoff function varies deterministically across periods, independently of behavior. We focus on two common cases. In one, the set of states S is ﬁnite. We then let q(s | s, a) denote the probability that the state s is realized, given that the previous state was s and the players chose action proﬁle a (the initial state can be random in this case). We allow equilibria to be either pure or, if the action sets are ﬁnite, mixed. In the other case, Ai and S are inﬁnite, in which case S ⊂ Rm for some m. We then take the transition function to be deterministic, so that for every s and a, there exists s with q(s | s, a) = 1 and q(s | s, a) = 0 for all s = s (the initial state is deterministic and given by s 0 in this case). As is common, we then restrict attention to pure-strategy equilibria. In each period of the game, the state is ﬁrst drawn and revealed to the players, who then simultaneously choose their actions. The set of period t ex ante histories H t is the set (S × A)t , identifying the state and the action proﬁle in each period.17 The set of period t ex post histories is the set H˜ t = (S × A)t × S, giving state and 17. Under the state transition rule q, many of the histories in this set may be impossible. If so, the speciﬁcation of behavior at these histories will have no effect on payoffs.

176

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Variations on the Game

action realizations for each previous period and identifying the current state. Let 0 ∞ be the set of outcomes. ˜t ˜0 H˜ = ∪∞ t=0 H ; we set H = {∅}, so that H = S. Let H A pure strategy for player i is a mapping σi : H˜ → Ai , associating an action with each ex post history. A pure strategy proﬁle σ , together with the transition function q, induces a probability measure over H ∞ . Player i’s expected payoff is then Ui (σ ) = E

(1 − δ)

σ

∞

δ t ui (s t , a t ) ,

t=0

where the expectation is taken with respect to the measure over H ∞ induced by q(∅) and σ . Note that the expectation may be nontrivial, even for a pure strategy proﬁle, because the transition function q may be random. As usual, this formulation has a straightforward extension to behavior strategies. For histories other than the null history, we let Ui (σ | h˜ t ) denote i’s expected payoffs induced by the strategy proﬁle σ in the continuation game that follows the ex post history h˜ t . An ex ante history ending in (s, a) gives rise to a continuation game matching the original game but with q(∅) replaced by q(· | s, a) and the transition function otherwise unchanged. An ex post history h˜ t , ending with state s, gives rise to the continuation game again matching the original game but with the initial distribution over states now attaching probability 1 to state s. It will be convenient to denote this game by G(s). Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a Nash equilibrium if Ui (σ ) ≥ Ui (σi , σ−i ) for all σi and

5.5.1 for all players i. A strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if, for any ex post history h˜ t ∈ H˜ ending in state s, the continuation strategy σ |h˜ t is a Nash equilibrium of the continuation game G(s). Example Suppose there are two equally likely states, independently drawn in each period,

5.5.1 with payoffs given in ﬁgure 5.5.1. It is a quick calculation that strategies specifying effort after every ex post history in which there has been no previous shirking (and specifying shirking otherwise) are a subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if δ ≥ 2/7. Strategies specifying effort after any ex post history ending in state 2 while calling for shirking in state 1 (as long as there have been no deviations from this prescription, and shirking otherwise) are an equilibrium if and only if δ ≥ 2/5. The deviation incentives are the same in both games, whereas exerting

E

E

S

E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S

−1, 3

E

3, 3

0, 0

S

4, −1

State 1

−1, 4 0, 0

State 2

Figure 5.5.1 Payoff functions for states 1 and 2 of a dynamic game.

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177

effort in only one state reduces the equilibrium continuation value, and hence requires more patience to sustain effort in the other state.18 ●

Remark Repeated games with random states The previous example illustrates the special

5.5.1 case in which the probability of the current state is independent of the previous state and the players’ actions, that is, q(s | s , a ) = q(s | s , a ) ≡ q(s). We refer to such dynamic games as repeated games with random states. These games are a particularly simple repeated game with imperfect public monitoring (section 7.1.1). Player i’s pure action set in the stage game is given by the set of functions from S into Ai , and players simultaneously choose such actions. The pure-action proﬁle σ then gives rise to the signal (s, σ1 (s), . . . , σn (s)) with probability q(s), for each s ∈ S. Player i’s payoff ui (s, a) can then be written as ui ((s, σ−i (s)), ai (s)), giving i’s payoff as a function of i’s action and the public signal. We describe a simpler approach in remark 5.7.1. ◆ 5.5.2 Markov Equilibrium In principle, strategies in a dynamic game could specify each period’s action as a complicated function of the preceding history. It is common, though by no means universal, to restrict attention to Markov strategies: ˜t Definition 1. The strategy proﬁle σ is a Markov strategy if for any two ex post histories h and h˜ τ of the same length and terminating in the same state, σ (h˜ t ) = σ (h˜ τ ). 5.5.2 The strategy proﬁle σ is a Markov equilibrium if σ is a Markov strategy proﬁle and a subgame-perfect equilibrium. 2. The strategy proﬁle σ is a stationary Markov strategy if for any two ex post histories h˜ t and h˜ τ (of equal or different lengths) terminating in the same state, σ (h˜ t ) = σ (h˜ τ ). The strategy proﬁle σ is a stationary Markov equilibrium if σ is a stationary Markov strategy proﬁle and a subgame-perfect equilibrium. It is sometimes useful to reinforce the requirement of subgame perfection by referring to a Markov equilibrium as a Markov perfect equilibrium. Some researchers also refer to game states as Markov states when using Markov equilibrium (but see remark 5.5.2). Markov strategies ignore all of the details of a history except its length and the current state. Stationary Markov strategies ignore all details except the current state. Three advantages for such equilibria are variously cited. First, Markov equilibria appear to be simple, in the sense that behavior depends on a relatively small set of variables, often being the simplest strategies consistent with rationality. To some, this simplicity is appealing for its own sake, whereas for others it is an analytical or computational advantage. Markov equilibria are especially common in applied work.19 18. In contrast to section 5.3, we face here one randomly drawn game in each period, instead of both games. 19. It is not true, however, that Markov equilibria are always simpler than non-Markov equilibria. The proof of proposition 18.4.4 goes to great lengths to construct a Markov equilibrium featuring high effort, in a version of the product choice game, that would be a straightforward calculation in non-Markov strategies.

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Second, the set of Markov equilibrium outcomes is often considerably smaller than the set of all equilibrium outcomes. This is a virtue for some and a vice for others, but again contributes to the popularity of Markov equilibria in applied work. Third, Markov equilibria are often viewed as having some intuitive appeal for their own sake. The source of this appeal is the idea that only things that are “payoff relevant” should matter in determining behavior. Because the only aspect of a history that affects current payoff functions is the current state, then a ﬁrst step in imposing payoff relevance is to assume that current behavior should depend only on the current state.20 Notice, however, that there is no reason to limit this logic to dynamic games. It could just as well be applied in a repeated game, where it is unreasonably restrictive, because nothing is payoff relevant in the sense typically used when discussing dynamic games. Insisting on Markov equilibria in the repeated prisoners’dilemma, for example, dooms the players to perpetual shirking. More generally, a Markov equilibrium in a repeated game must play a stage-game Nash equilibrium in every period, and a stationary Markov equilibrium must play the same one in every period. Remark Three types of state We now have three notions of a state to juggle. One is Markov

5.5.2 state, an equivalence class of histories in which distinctions are payoff irrelevant. The second is game state, an element of the set S of states determining the stage game in a dynamic game. Though it is often taken for granted that the set of Markov states can be identiﬁed with the set of game states, as we will see in section 5.6, these are distinct concepts. Game states may not always be payoff relevant and, more important, we can identify Markov states without any a priori speciﬁcation of a game state. Finally, we have automaton states, states in an automaton representing a strategy proﬁle. Because continuation payoffs in a repeated game depend on the current automaton state, and only on this state, some researchers take the set of automata states as the set of Markov states. This practice unfortunately robs the Markov notion and payoff relevance of any independent meaning. The particular notion of payoff relevance inherent in labeling automaton states Markov is much less restrictive than that often intended to be captured by Markov perfection. For example, Markov perfection then imposes no restrictions beyond subgame perfection in repeated games, because any subgame-perfect equilibrium proﬁle has an automaton representation, in contrast to the trivial equilibria that appear if we at least equate Markov states with game states. ◆ 5.5.3 Examples Example Suppose that players 1 and 2 draw ﬁsh from a common pool. In each period

5.5.2 t, the pool contains a stock of ﬁsh of size s t ∈ R+ . In period t, player i extracts ait ≥ 0 units of ﬁsh, and derives payoff ln(ait ) from extracting ait .21 The remaining 20. If the function u(s, a) is constant over some values of s, then we could impose yet further restrictions. 21. We must have a1t + a2t ≤ s t . We can model this by allowing the players to choose extraction levels a¯ 1t and a¯ 2t , with these levels realized if feasible and with a rationing rule otherwise determining realized extraction levels. This constraint will not play a role in the equilibrium, and so we leave the rationing rule unspeciﬁed and treat ait and a¯ it as identical.

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(depleted) stock of ﬁsh doubles before the next period. This gives a dynamic game with actions and states drawn from the inﬁnite set [0, ∞), identifying the current quantity of ﬁsh extracted (actions) and the current stock of ﬁsh (states), and with the deterministic transition function s t+1 = 2(s t − a1t − a2t ). The initial stock is ﬁxed at some value s 0 . We ﬁrst calculate a stationary Markov equilibrium of this game, in which the players choose identical strategies. That is, although we assume that the players choose Markov strategies in equilibrium, the result is a strategy proﬁle that is optimal in the full strategy set—there are no superior strategies, Markov or otherwise. We are thus calculating not an equilibrium in the game in which players are restricted to Markov strategies but Markov strategies that are an equilibrium of the full game. The restriction to Markov strategies allows us to introduce a function V (s) identifying the equilibrium value (conditional on the equilibrium strategy proﬁle) in any continuation game induced by an ex post history ending in state s. Let g t (s 0 ) be the amount of ﬁsh extracted by each player at time t, given the period 0 stock s 0 and the (suppressed, in the notation) equilibrium strategies. The function V (s 0 ) identiﬁes equilibrium utilities, and hence must satisfy

V (s 0 ) = (1 − δ)

∞

δ t ln(g t (s 0 )).

(5.5.1)

t=0

Imposing the Markov restriction that current actions depend only on the current state, let each player’s strategy be given by a function a(s) identifying the amount of ﬁsh to extract given that the current stock is s. We then solve jointly for the function V (s) and the equilibrium strategy a(s). First, the one-shot deviation principle (which we describe in section 5.7.1) allows us to characterize the function a(s) as solving, for any s ∈ S and for each player i, the Bellman equation, ˜ + δV (2(s − a˜ − a(s))), a(s) ∈ arg max(1 − δ) ln(a) a∈A ˜ i

where a˜ is player i’s consumption and the a(s) in the ﬁnal term captures the assumption that player j adheres to the candidate equilibrium strategy. If the value function V is differentiable, the implied ﬁrst-order condition is (1 − δ) = 2δV (2(s − 2a(s))). a(s) To ﬁnd an equilibrium, suppose that a(s) is given by a linear function, so that a(s) = ks. Then we have s t+1 = 2(s t − 2ks t ) = 2(1 − 2k)s t . Using this and a(s) = ks to recursively replace g t (s) in (5.5.1), we have V (s) = (1 − δ)

∞ t=0

δ t ln[k(2(1 − 2k))t s],

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and so V is differentiable with V (s) = 1/s. Solving the ﬁrst-order condition, k = (1 − δ)/(2 − δ), and so a(s) = and

1−δ s 2−δ

V (s) = (1 − δ)

∞ t=0

1−δ s δ ln 2−δ

t

2δ 2−δ

t .

We interpret this expression by noting that in each period, proportion 1 − 2a(s) = 1 − 2

δ 1−δ = 2−δ 2−δ

of the stock is preserved until the next period, where it is doubled, so that the stock grows at rate 2δ/(2 − δ). In each period, each player consumes fraction (1 − δ)/(2 − δ) of this stock. Notice that in this solution, the stock of resource grows without bound if the players are sufﬁciently patient (δ > 2/3), though payoffs remain bounded, and declines to extinction if δ < 2/3. As is expected from these types of common pool resource problems, this equilibrium is inefﬁcient. Failing to take into account the externality that their extraction imposes on their partner’s future consumption, each player extracts too much (from an efﬁciency point of view) in each period. This stationary Markov equilibrium is not the only equilibrium of this game. To construct another equilibrium, we ﬁrst calculate the largest symmetric payoff proﬁle that can be achieved when the ﬁrms choose identical Markov strategies. Again representing the solution as a linear function a = ks, we can write the appropriate Bellman equation as ˜ + δ(1 − δ) a(s) = argmax 2(1 − δ) ln(a) a∈A ˜ i

∞

δ t 2 ln(k(2(1 − 2k))t (s − 2a)). ˜

t=0

Taking a derivative with respect to a˜ and simplifying, we ﬁnd that the efﬁcient solution is given by 1−δ s. a(s) = 2 As expected, the efﬁcient solution extracts less than does the Markov equilibrium. The efﬁcient solution internalizes the externality that player i’s extraction imposes on player j , through its effect on future stocks of ﬁsh. Under the efﬁcient solution, we have 1−δ = 2δs t , s t+1 = 2s t 1 − 2 2 and hence s t = (2δ)t s 0 . The stock of the resource grows without bound if δ > 1/2. Notice also that just as we earlier solved for Markov strategies that are an equilibrium in the complete strategy set, we have now found Markov strategies that maximize total expected payoffs over the set of all strategies.

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181

We can support the efﬁcient solution as a (non-Markov) equilibrium of the repeated game, if the players are sufﬁciently patient. Let strategies prescribe the efﬁcient extraction after every history in which the quantity extracted has been efﬁcient in each previous period, and prescribe the Markov equilibrium extraction a(s) = [(1 − δ)/(2 − δ)]s otherwise. Then for sufﬁciently large δ, we have an equilibrium. ●

Example Consider a market with a single good, produced by a monopoly ﬁrm facing a

5.5.3 continuum of small, anonymous consumers.22 We think of the ﬁrm as a long-lived player and interpret the consumers as short-lived players. The good produced by the ﬁrm is durable. The good lasts forever, subject to continuous depreciation at rate η, so that 1 unit of the good purchased at time 0 depreciates to e−ηt units of the good at time t. This durability makes this a dynamic rather than repeated game. Time is divided into discrete periods of length , with the ﬁrm making a new production choice at the beginning of each period. We will subsequently be interested in the limiting case as becomes very short. The players in the model discount at the continuously compounded rate r. For a period of length , the discount factor is thus e−r . The stock of the good in period t is denoted x(t). The stock includes the quantity that the ﬁrm has newly produced in period t, as well as the depreciated remnants of past production. Though the ﬁrm’s period t action is the period t quantity of production, it is more convenient to treat the ﬁrm as choosing the stock x(t). The ﬁrm thus chooses a sequence of stocks {x(0), x(1), . . .}, subject to x(t) ≥ e−η x(t − 1).23 Producing a unit of the good incurs a constant marginal cost of c. Consumers take the price path as given, believing that their own consumption decisions cannot inﬂuence future prices. Rather than modeling consumers’ maximization behavior directly, we represent it with the inverse demand curve f (x) = 1 − x. We interpret f (x) as the instantaneous valuation consumers attach to x units of the durable good. We must now translate this into our setting with periods of length . The value per unit a consumer assigns to acquiring a quantity x at the beginning of a period and used only throughout that period, with no previous or further purchases, is

F (x) =

f (xe−ηs )e−(r+η)s ds

0

=

1 1 (1 − e−(r+η) ) − x (1 − e−(r+2η) ) r +η r + 2η

≡ θ − βx. 22. For a discussion of durable goods monopoly problems, see Ausubel, Cramton, and Deneckere (2002). The example in this section is taken from Bond and Samuelson (1984, 1987). The introduction of depreciation simpliﬁes the example, but is not essential to the results (Ausubel and Deneckere 1989). 23. Because this constraint does not bind in the equilibrium we construct, we can ignore it.

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Because the good does not disappear at the end of the period, the period t price (reflecting current and future values) given the sequence x(t) ≡ {x(t), x(t + 1), . . .} of period t and future stocks of the good, is given by p(t, x(t)) =

∞

e−(r+η)s F (x(t + s)).

s=0

The ﬁrm’s expected payoff in period t, given the sequence of actions x(t − 1) and x(t), is given by24 ∞

(x(τ ) − x(τ − 1)e−η )(p(τ, x(τ )) − c)e−r(τ −t) .

τ =t

If the good were perishable, this would be a relatively straightforward intertemporal price discrimination problem. The durability of the good complicates the relationship between current prices and future actions. We begin by seeking a stationary Markov equilibrium. The state variable in period t is the stock x(t − 1) chosen in the previous period. The ﬁrm’s strategy is described by a function x(t) = g(x(t − 1)), giving the period t stock as a function of the previous period’s stock. However, a more ﬂexible description of the ﬁrm’s strategy is more helpful. We consider a function g(s, t, x), identifying the period s stock, given that the stock in period t ≤ s is x. Hence, we build into our description of the Markov strategy the observation that if period t’s stock is a function of period t − 1’s, then so is period t + 2’s stock a (different) function of x(t − 1), and so is x(t + 3), and so on. To ensure this representation of the ﬁrm’s strategy is coherent, we impose the consistency condition that g(s , t, x) = g(s , s, g(s, t, x)) for s ≥ s ≥ t. In addition, g(s + τ, s, x) must equal g(t + τ, t, x) for s = t, so that the same state variable produces identical continuation behavior, regardless of how it is reached and regardless of when it is reached. The ﬁrm’s proﬁt maximization problem, in any period t, is to choose the sequence of stocks {x(t), x(t + 1), . . . , } to maximize V (x(t), t | x(t − 1)) ∞ [x(τ ) − x(τ − 1)e−η ](p(τ, x(τ )) − c)e−r(τ −t) =

=

(5.5.2)

τ =t ∞

[x(τ ) − x(τ − 1)e−η ]

τ =t

×

∞

e−(r+η)s (θ − βg(s + τ, τ, x(τ ))) − c e−r(τ −t) .

(5.5.3)

s=0

In making the substitution for p(τ, x(τ )) that brings us from (5.5.2) to (5.5.3), g(s + τ, τ, x(τ )) describes consumers’expectations of the ﬁrm’s future stocks and 24. Notice that we must specify the stock in period t − 1 because this combines with x(t) to determine the quantity produced and sold in period t.

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so their own future valuations. To ﬁnd an optimal strategy for the ﬁrm, we differentiate V (x(t), t | x(t − 1)) with respect to x(t ) for t ≥ t to obtain a ﬁrst-order condition for the latter. In doing so, we hold the values x(τ ) for τ = t ﬁxed, so that the ﬁrm chooses x(τ ) and x(t ) independently. However, consumer expectations are given by the function g(s + τ, τ, x(τ )), which builds in a relationship between the current stock and anticipated future stocks that determines current prices. Fix t ≥ t ≥ 0. The ﬁrst-order condition dV (x(t), t | x(t − 1))/dx(t ) = 0 is, from (5.5.3), [θ − βx(t ) − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] − β[x(t ) − e−η x(t − 1)]

∞

e−(r+η)s

s=0

Using

x(t )

=

g(t , t, x(t)),

% dg(t + s, t , x) %% = 0. % dx x=x(t )

we rewrite this as

[θ − βg(t , t, x(t)) − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] − β[g(t , t, x(t)) − e−η g(t − 1, t, x(t))] ∞ −(r+η)s dg(t + s, t , g(t , t, x(t))) × e = 0. dx s=0

As is typically the case, this difference equation is solved with the help of some informed guesswork. We posit g(s, t, x) takes the form ¯ g(s, t, x) = x¯ + µs−t (x − x), where we interpret x¯ as a limiting stock of the good and µ as identifying the rate at which the stock adjusts to this limit. With this form for g, it is immediate that the ﬁrst-order conditions characterize the optimal value of x(t ). Substituting this expression into our ﬁrst-order condition gives, 1 − e−η θ − c(1 − e−(r+η) ) − β x¯ 1 + 1 − e−(r+η) µ µ − e−η − βµt −t−1 (x − x) ¯ µ+ = 0. 1 − e−(r+η) µ Because this equation must hold for all t , we conclude that each expression in braces must be 0. We can solve the second for µ and then insert in the ﬁrst to solve for x, ¯ yielding √ 1 − 1 − e−(r+2η) µ= e−(r+η) and √ 1 − e−(r+2η) [θ − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] . x¯ = √ β ( 1 − e−(r+2η) + 1 − e−η ) Notice ﬁrst that µ < 1. The stock of good produced by the monopoly thus converges monotonically to the limiting stock x. ¯ In the expression for the limit x, ¯ [θ − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] β

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is the competitive stock. Maintaining the stock at this level in every period gives p(t, x) = c, and hence equality of price and marginal cost. The term √

1 − e−(r+2η) ≡ γ (, η) √ ( 1 − e−(r+2η) + 1 − e−η )

(5.5.4)

then gives the ratio between the monopoly’s limiting stock of good and the competitive stock. The following properties follow immediately from (5.5.4): γ (, η) < 1, lim γ (, η) =

(5.5.5)

1 2,

(5.5.6)

γ (, 0) = 1,

(5.5.7)

lim γ (, η) = 1.

(5.5.8)

η→∞

and

→0

Condition (5.5.5) indicates that the monopoly’s limiting stock is less than that of a competitive market. Condition (5.5.6) shows that as the depreciation rate becomes arbitrarily large, the limiting monopoly quantity is half that of the competitive market, recovering the familiar result for perishable goods. Condition (5.5.7) indicates that if the good is perfectly durable, then the limiting monopoly quantity approaches that of the competitive market. As the competitive stock is approached, the price-cost margin collapses to 0. With a positive depreciation rate, it pays to keep this margin permanently away from 0, so that positive proﬁts can be earned on selling replacement goods to compensate for the continual deprecation. As the rate of depreciation goes to 0, however, this source of proﬁts evaporates and proﬁts are made only on new sales. It is then optimal to extract these proﬁts, to the extent that the price-cost margin is pushed to 0. Condition (5.5.8) shows that as the period length goes to 0, the stock again approaches the competitive stock. If the stock stops short of the competitive stock, every period brings the monopoly a choice between simply satisfying the replacement demand, for a proﬁt that is proportional to the length of the period, or pushing the price lower to sell new units to additional consumers. The latter proﬁt is proportional to the price and hence must overwhelm the replacement demand for short time periods, leading to the competitive quantity as the length of a period becomes arbitrarily short. More important, because the adjustment factor µ is also a function of , by applying l’Hôpital’s rule to −1 ln µ, one can show that 1

lim µ = 0.

→0

Hence, as the period length shrinks to 0, the monopoly’s output path comes arbitrarily close to an instantaneous jump to the competitive quantity.25 Consumers 25. At calender time T , T / periods have elapsed, and so, as → 0, x(T /) → x. ¯

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build this behavior into their pricing behavior, ensuring that prices collapse to marginal cost and the ﬁrm’s proﬁts collapse to 0. This is the Coase conjecture in action.26 How should we think about the Markov restriction that lies behind this equilibrium? The key question facing a consumer, when evaluating a price, concerns how rapidly the ﬁrm is likely to expand the stock and depress the price in the future. The ﬁrm will ﬁrmly insist that there is nary a price reduction in sight, a claim that the consumer would do well to treat with some skepticism. One obvious place for the consumer to look in assessing this claim is the ﬁrm’s past behavior. Has the price been sitting at nearly its current level for a long time? Or has the ﬁrm been racing down the demand curve, having charged ten times as much only periods ago? Markov strategies insist that consumers ignore such information. If consumers ﬁnd the information relevant, then we have moved beyond Markov equilibria. To construct an alternative equilibrium with quite different properties, let xR =

[θ − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] . 2β

This is half the quantity produced in a competitive market. Choosing this stock in every period maximizes the ﬁrm’s proﬁts over the set of Nash equilibria of the repeated game.27 Now let H ∗ be the set of histories in which the stock xR has been produced in every previous period. Notice that this includes the null history. Then consider the ﬁrm’s strategy x(ht ), giving the current stock as a function of the history ht , given by x(h ) = t

if ht ∈ H ∗ ,

xR ,

g(t, t − 1, x(t − 1)), otherwise,

where g(·) is the Markov equilibrium strategy calculated earlier. In effect, the ﬁrm “commits” to produce the proﬁt-maximizing quantity xR , with any misstep prompting a switch to continuing with the Markov equilibrium. Let σ R denote this strategy and the attendant best response for consumers. It is now straightforward that σ R is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, as long as the length of a period is sufﬁciently short. To see this, let U (σ R | x) be the monopoly’s continuation payoff from this strategy, given that the current stock is x ≤ xR . We are interested in the continuation payoffs given stock xR , or U (σ

R

| xR ) =

∞ τ =0

=

e

−rτ

(1 − e

−η

)xR − c +

∞

e

−(r+η)s

s=0 −(r+η) ) − c(1 − e )]

(1 − e−η )[F (xR (1 − e−r )(1 − e−(r+η) )

F (xR )

xR .

26. Notice that in examining the limiting case of short time periods, depreciation has added nothing other than extra terms to the model. 27. This quantity maximizes [θ − βx − c(1 − e−(r+η) )]x, and hence is the quantity that would be produced in each period by a ﬁrm that retained ownership of the good and rented its services to the customers. A ﬁrm who sells the good can earn no higher proﬁts.

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The key observation now is that lim U (σ R | xR ) > 0.

→∞

Even as time periods become arbitrarily short, there are positive payoffs to be made by continually replacing the depreciated portion of the proﬁt-maximizing quantity xR . In contrast, as we have seen, as time periods shorten, the continuation payoff of the Markov equilibrium, from any initial stock, approaches 0. This immediately yields: Proposition There exists ∗ such that, if < ∗ , then strategies σ R are a subgame-perfect

5.5.1 equilibrium. This example illustrates that a Markov restriction can make a great difference in equilibrium outcomes. One may or may not be convinced that a focus on Markov equilibria is appropriate, but one cannot rationalize the restriction simply as an analytical convenience. ●

5.6

Dynamic Games: Foundations

What determines the set S of states for a dynamic game? At ﬁrst the answer seems obvious—states are things that affect payoffs, such as the stock of ﬁsh in example 5.5.2 or the stock of durable good in example 5.5.3. However, matters are not always so clear. For example, our formulation of repeated games in chapter 2 allows players to condition their actions on a public random variable. Are these realizations states, in the sense of a dynamic game, and does Markov equilibrium allow behavior to be conditioned on such realizations? Alternatively, consider the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma. It initially appears as if there are no payoff-relevant states, so that Markov equilibria must feature identical behavior after every history and hence must feature perpetual shirking. Suppose, however, that we deﬁned two states, an effort state and a shirk state. Let the game begin in the effort state, and remain there as along as there has been no shirking, being otherwise in the shirk state. Now let players’ strategies prescribe effort in the effort state and shirking in the shirk state. We now have a Markov equilibrium (for sufﬁciently patient players) featuring effort. Are these states real, or are they a sleight of hand? In general, we can deﬁne payoffs for a dynamic game as functions of current and past actions, without resorting to the idea of a state. As a result, it can be misleading to think of the set of states as being exogenously given. Instead, if we would like to work with the notions of payoff relevance and Markov equilibrium, we must endogenously infer the appropriate set of states from the structure of payoffs. This section pursues this notion of a state, following Maskin and Tirole (2001). We examine a game with players 1, . . . , n. Each player i has the set Ai of stage-game actions available in each period. Hence, the set of feasible actions is again independent

5.6

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Dynamic Games: Foundations

of history.28 Player i’s payoff is a function of the outcome path a ∈ A∞ . This formulation is sufﬁciently general to cover the dynamic games of section 5.6. Deterministic transitions are immediately covered because the history of actions ht determines the state s reached in period t. For stochastic transitions, such as example 5.5.1, introduce an artiﬁcial player 0, nature, with action space A0 = S and constant payoffs; random state transitions correspond to the appropriate ﬁxed behavior strategy for player 0. In what follows, the term players refers to players i ≥ 1, and histories include nature’s moves. Let σ be a pure strategy proﬁle and ht a history. Then we write Ui∗ (σ | ht ) for player i’s payoffs given history ht and the subsequent continuation strategy proﬁle σ |ht . This is in general an expected value because future utilities may depend randomly on past play, for the same reason that the current state in a model with exogenously speciﬁed states may depend randomly on past actions. Note that Ui∗ (σ | ht ) is not, in general, the continuation payoff from σ |ht . For example, for a repeated game in the class of chapter 2, Ui∗ (σ

| (a , a , . . . , a 0

1

t−1

)) =

t−1

δ τ ui (a τ ) + δ t Ui (σ |(a 0 ,a 1 ,...,a t−1 ) ),

τ =0

where ui is the stage game payoff and Ui is given by (2.1.2). In this case, Ui∗ (σ | ht ) and Ui∗ (σ | hˆ t ) differ by only a constant if the continuation strategies σ |ht and σ |hˆ t are identical, and history is important only for its role in coordinating future behavior. This dual role of histories in a dynamic game gives rise to ambiguity in deﬁning states. Suppose two histories induce different continuation payoffs. Do these differences arise because differences in future play are induced, in which case the histories would not satisfy the usual notion of being payoff relevant (though it can still be critical to take note of the difference), or because identical continuation play gives rise to different payoffs? Can we always tell the difference? 5.6.1 Consistent Partitions Let H t be the set of period t histories. Notice that we have no notion of a state in this context, and hence no distinction between ex ante and ex post histories. A period t history is an element of At . A partition of H t is denoted Ht , and Ht (ht ) is the partition element containing history ht . t A sequence of partitions {Ht }∞ t=0 is denoted H; viewed as ∪t H , H is a partition of the set of all histories H = ∪t H t . We often ﬁnd it convenient to work with several such sequences, one associated with each player, denoting them by H1 , . . . , Hn . Given such a collection of partitions, we say that two histories ht and hˆ t are i-equivalent if ht ∈ Hit (hˆ t ). A strategy σi is measurable with respect to Hi if, for every pair of histories ht and ˆht with ht ∈ Ht (hˆ t ), the continuation strategy σi |ht equals σi | ˆ t . Let i (H) denote the i h set of pure strategies for player i that are measurable with respect to the partition H. 28. If this were not the case, then we would ﬁrst partition the set of period t histories H t into subsets that feature the same feasible choices for each player i in period t and then work throughout with reﬁnements of this partition, to ensure that our subsequent measurability requirements were feasible.

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A collection of partitions {H1t , . . . , Hnt }∞ t=0 is consistent if for every player i, whenever other players’ strategies σ−i are measurable with respect to their partition, then for any pair of i-equivalent period t histories ht and hˆ t , player i has the same preferences over i’s continuation strategies. Hence, consistency requires that for any player i, pure strategies σj ∈ j (Hj ) for all j = i, and i-equivalent histories ht and hˆ t , there exist constants θ and β > 0 such that Ui∗ ((σi , σ−i ) | ht ) = θ + βUi∗ ((σi , σ−i ) | hˆ t ). If this relationship holds, conditional on the (measurable) strategies of the other players, i’s utilities after histories ht and hˆ t are afﬁne transformations of one another. We represent this by writing Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | ht ) ∼ Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | hˆ t ).

(5.6.1)

We say that two histories ht and hˆ t , with the property that player i has the same preferences over continuation payoffs given these histories (as just deﬁned) are ipayoff equivalent. Consistency of a partition is thus the condition that equivalence (under the partition) implies payoff equivalence. The idea now is to deﬁne a Markov equilibrium as a subgame-perfect equilibrium that is measurable with respect to a consistent collection of partitions. To follow this program through, two additional steps are required. First, we establish conditions under which consistent partitions have some intuitively appealing properties. Second, there may be many consistent partitions, some of them more interesting than others. We show that a maximal consistent partition exists, and use this one to deﬁne Markov equilibria.

5.6.2 Coherent Consistency One might expect a consistent partition to have two properties. First, we might expect players to share the same partition. Second, we might expect the elements of the period t partition to be subsets of partition in period t − 1, so that the partition is continually reﬁned. Without some additional mild conditions, both of these properties can fail. Lemma Suppose that for any players i and j , any period t, and any i-equivalent histories

5.6.1 ht and hˆ t , there exists a repeated-game strategy proﬁle σ and stage-game actions aj and aj such that Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | (ht , aj )) ∼ Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | (hˆ t , aj )).

(5.6.2)

Then if (H1 , . . . , Hn ) is a consistent collection of partitions, then in every period t and for all players i and j , Hit = Hjt . The expression Ui∗ ((σi , σ−i ) | (ht , aj )) gives player i’s payoffs, given that ht has occurred and given that player j chooses aj in period t, with behavior otherwise speciﬁed by (σi , σ−i ). Condition (5.6.2) then requires that player i’s preferences, given (ht , aj ) and (hˆ t , aj ), not be afﬁne transformations of one another.

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189

Proof Let ht and hˆ t be i-equivalent. Choose a player j and suppose the strategy proﬁle

σ and actions aj and aj satisfy (5.6.2). We suppose ht and hˆ t are not j -equivalent (and derive a contradiction). Then player j ’s strategy of playing as in σ , except playing aj after histories in Hj (ht ) and aj after histories in Hj (hˆ t ) is measurable with respect to Hj . But then (5.6.2) contradicts (5.6.1): Player i’s partition is not consistent (condition (5.6.2)), as assumed (condition (5.6.1)). ■

To see the argument behind this proof, suppose that a period t arrives in which player i and j partition their histories differently. We exploit this difference to construct a measurable strategy for player j that differs across histories within a single element of player i’s partition, in a way that affects player i’s preferences over continuation play. This contradicts the consistency of player i’s partition. There are two circumstances under which such a contradiction may not arise. One is that all players have the same partition, precluding the construction of such a strategy. This leads to the conclusion of the theorem. The other possibility is that we may not be able to ﬁnd the required actions on the part of player j that affect i’s preferences. In this case, we have reached a point at which, given a player i history ht ∈ Hi (ht ), there is nothing player j can do in period t that can have any effect on how player i evaluates continuation play. Such degeneracies are possible (Maskin and Tirole, 2001, provide an example), but we hereafter exclude them, assuming that the sufﬁcient conditions of lemma 5.6.1 hold throughout. We can thus work with a single consistent partition H and can refer to histories as being “equivalent” and “payoff equivalent” rather than i-equivalent and i-payoff equivalent. We are now interested in a similar link between periods. Lemma Suppose that for any players i and j , and period t, any equivalent histories ht and

5.6.2 hˆ t , and any stage-game action proﬁle a t , there exists a repeated-game strategy proﬁle σ and player j actions ajt+1 and a˜ jt+1 such that t t Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | (ht , a−i , ajt+1 )) ∼ Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | (hˆ t , a−i , a˜ jt+1 )).

(5.6.3)

If (H1 , . . . , Hn ) is a consistent collection of partitions under which ht and hˆ t are equivalent histories, then for any action proﬁle a t , (ht , a t ) and (hˆ t , a t ) are equivalent. Proof Fix a consistent collection H = (H1 , . . . , Hn ) and an action proﬁle a t . Suppose

ht and hˆ t are equivalent, and the action proﬁle a t , strategy σ , and player j actions ajt+1 and a˜ jt+1 satisfy (5.6.3). The strategy for every player k other than i and j that plays according to σk , except for playing akt in period t, is measurable with respect to H. We now suppose that (ht , a t ) and (hˆ t , a t ) are not equivalent and derive a contradiction. In particular, the player j strategy of playing ajt+1 and then playing

according to σj , after any history ht+1 ∈ H((ht , a t )), and otherwise playing a˜ jt+1 (followed by σj ) is then measurable with respect to H and from (5.6.3), allows us to conclude that ht and hˆ t are not equivalent (recall (5.6.1)), the contradiction. ■

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The conditions of this lemma preclude cases in which player j ’s behavior in period t + 1 has no effect on player i’s period t continuation payoffs. If the absence of such an effect, the set of payoff-relevant states in period t + 1 can be coarser than the set in period t.29 We say that games satisfying the conditions of lemmas 5.6.1 and 5.6.2 are nondegenerate and hereafter restrict attention to such games. 5.6.3 Markov Equilibrium There are typically many consistent partitions. The trivial partition, in which every history constitutes an element, is automatically consistent. There is clearly nothing to be gained in deﬁning a Markov equilibrium to be measurable with respect to this collection of partitions, because every strategy would then be Markov. Even if we restrict attention to nontrivial partitions, how do we know which one to pick? The obvious response is to examine the maximally coarse consistent partition, meaning a consistent partition that is coarser than any other consistent partition.30 This will impose the strictest version of the condition that payoff-irrelevant events should not matter. Does such a partition exist? Proposition Suppose the game is nondegenerate (i.e., satisﬁes the hypotheses of lemmas 5.6.1

5.6.1 and 5.6.2). A maximally coarse consistent partition exists. If the stage game is ﬁnite, then this maximally coarse consistent partition is unique. Proof Let be the set of all consistent partitions of histories. Endow this set with the

ˆ ≺ H if H is a coarsening of H. ˆ We show that there partial order ≺ deﬁned by H exists a maximal element under this partial order, unique for ﬁnite games. This argument proceeds in two steps. The ﬁrst is to show that there exist maximal elements. This in turn follows from Zorn’s lemma (Hrbacek and Jech 1984, p. 171), if we can show that every chain (i.e., totally ordered subset) C = {H(m) }∞ m=1 admits an upper bound. Let H(∞) denote the ﬁnest common coarsening (or meet) of C , that is, for each element h ∈ H , H(∞) (h) = ∪∞ m=1 H(m) (h). Because C is a chain, H(m) (h) ⊂ H(m+1) (h), and so H(∞) is a partition that is coarser than every partition in C . It remains to show that H(∞) is consistent. To do this, suppose that two histories ht and hˆ t are contained in a common element of H(∞) . Then they must be contained in some common element of H(m) for some m, and hence must satisfy (5.6.1). This ensures that H(∞) is consistent, and so is an upper bound for the chain. Hence by Zorn’s lemma, there is a maximally coarse consistent partition. The second step is to show that there is a unique maximal element for ﬁnite stage games. To do this, it sufﬁces to show that for any two consistent partitions, ˆ be contheir meet (i.e., ﬁnest common coarsening) is consistent. Let H and H t t ¯ be their meet. Suppose h and hˆ are contained in a sistent partitions, and let H ˆ t are both ﬁnite ¯ Because the stage game is ﬁnite, Ht and H single element of H. partitions. Then, by the deﬁnition of meet, there is a ﬁnite sequence of histories

29. Again, Maskin and Tirole (2001) provide an example. 30. A partition H is a coarsening of another partition H if for all H ∈ H there exists H ∈ H such that H ⊂ H .

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{ht , ht (1), . . . , ht (n), hˆ t } such that each adjacent pair is contained in either the ˆ t , and hence satisfy payoff equivasame element of Ht or the same element of H t t lence. But then h and hˆ must be payoff equivalent, which sufﬁces to conclude ¯ is consistent. that H ■

Denote the maximally coarse consistent partition by

H∗ .

Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a Markov strategy proﬁle if it is measurable with respect

5.6.1 to the maximally coarse consistent partition H∗ . A strategy proﬁle is a Markov equilibrium if it is a subgame-perfect equilibrium and it is Markov. Elements of the partition H∗ are called Markov states or payoff-relevant histories. No difﬁculty arises in ﬁnding a Markov equilibrium in a repeated game, because one can always simply repeat the Nash equilibrium of the stage game, making history completely irrelevant. This is a reﬂection of the fact that in a repeated game, the maximally coarse partition is the set of all histories. Indeed, all Markov equilibria feature a Nash equilibrium of the stage game in every period. Repeated games have the additional property that every history gives rise to an identical continuation game. As we noted in section 5.5.2, the Markov condition on strategies is commonly supplemented with the additional requirement that identical continuation games feature identical continuation strategies. Such strategies are said to be stationary. A stationary Markov equilibria in a repeated game must feature the same stage-game Nash equilibrium in every period. More generally, it is straightforward to establish the existence of Markov equilibria in dynamic games with ﬁnite stage games and without private information. A backward induction argument ensures that ﬁnite horizon versions of the game have Markov equilibria, and discounting ensures that the limit of such equilibria, as the horizon approaches inﬁnity, is a Markov equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated game (Fudenberg and Levine 1983). Now consider dynamic games G in the class described in section 5.5. The set S induces a partition on the set of ex post histories in a natural manner, with two ex post histories being equivalent under this partition if they are histories of the same length and end with the same state s ∈ S. Refer to this partition as HS . Because the continuation G(s) is identical, regardless of the history terminating in s, the following is immediate:

Proposition Suppose G is a dynamic game in the class described in section 5.5. Suppose HS

5.6.2 is the partition of H with h ∈ HS (h ) if h and h are of the same length and both result in the same state s ∈ S. Then, HS is ﬁner than H∗ . If for every pair of states s, s ∈ S, there is at least one player i for which ui (s, a) and ui (s , a) are not afﬁne transformations of one another, then H∗ = HS . The outcomes ω and ω of a public correlating device have no effect on players’ preferences and hence fail the condition that there exist a player i for whom ui (ω, a) and ui (ω , a) are not afﬁne transformations of one another. Therefore, the outcomes of a public correlating device in a repeated game do not constitute states. Markov equilibrium precludes the use of public correlation in repeated games and restricts the players in the prisoners’ dilemma to consistent shirking. Alternatively,

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much of the interest in repeated games focuses on non-Markov equilibria.31 In our view, the choice of an equilibrium is part of the construction of the model. Different choices, including whether Markov or not, may be appropriate in different circumstances, with the choice of equilibrium to be defended not within the conﬁnes of the model but in terms of the strategic interaction being modeled. Remark Games of incomplete information The notion of Markov strategy also plays an

5.6.1 important role in incomplete information games, where the beliefs of uninformed players are often treated as Markov states (see, for example, section 18.4.4). At an intuitive level, this is the appropriate extension of the ideas in this section. However, determining equivalence classes of histories that are payoff-equivalent is now a signiﬁcantly more subtle question. For example, because the inferences that players draw from histories depend on the beliefs that players have about past play, the equivalence classes now must satisfy a complicated ﬁxed point property. Moreover, Markov equilibria (as just deﬁned) need not exist, and this has led to the notion of a weak Markov equilibrium in the literature on bargaining under incomplete information (see, for example, Fudenberg, Levine, and Tirole, 1985). We provide a simple example of a similar phenomenon in section 17.3. ◆

5.7

Dynamic Games: Equilibrium

5.7.1 The Structure of Equilibria This section explores some of the common ground between ordinary repeated games and dynamic games. Recall that we assume either that the set of states S is ﬁnite, or that the transition function is deterministic. The proofs of the various propositions we offer are straightforward rewritings of their counterparts for repeated games in chapter 2 and hence are omitted. We say that strategy σˆ i is a one-shot deviation for player i from strategy σi if there is a unique ex post history h˜ t such that σˆ i (h˜ t ) = σi (h˜ t ). It is then a straightforward modiﬁcation of proposition 2.2.1, substituting ex post histories for histories and replacing payoffs with expected payoffs to account for the potential randomness of the state transition function, to establish a one-shot deviation principle for dynamic games: Proposition A strategy proﬁle σ is subgame perfect in a dynamic game if and only if there are

5.7.1 no proﬁtable one-shot deviations. Given a dynamic game, an automaton is (W , w0 , τ, f ), where W is the set of automaton states, w0 : S → W gives the initial automaton state as a function of the initial game state, τ : W × A × S → W is the transition function giving the automaton 31. This contrast may not be so stark. Maskin and Tirole (2001) show that most non-Markov equilibria of repeated games are limits of Markov equilibria in nearby dynamic games.

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state in the next period as a function of the current automaton state, the current action proﬁle, and the next draw of the game state. Finally, f : W → i (Ai ) is the output function. (Note that this description agrees with remark 2.3.3 when S is the space of realizations of the public correlating device.) The initial automaton state is determined by the initial game state, through the function w0 . We will often be interested in the strategy induced by the automaton beginning with an automaton state w. As in the case of repeated games, we write this as (W , w, τ, f ).32 Let τ (h˜ t ) denote the automaton state reached under the ex post history h˜ t ∈ H˜ t = (S × A)t × S. Hence, for a history {s} that identiﬁes the initial game-state s, we have τ ({s}) = w0 (s) and for any ex post history h˜ t = (h˜ t−1 , a, s), τ (h˜ t ) = τ (τ (h˜ t−1 ), a, s). Given an ex post history h˜ t ∈ H˜ , let s(h˜ t ) denote the current game state in h˜ t . Given a game state s ∈ S, the set of automaton states accessible in game state s is W (s) = {w ∈ W : ∃h˜ t ∈ H˜ , w = τ (h˜ t ), s = s(h˜ t )}.33 Proposition Suppose the strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automaton {W , w0 , τ, f }. Then

5.7.2 σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the dynamic game if and only if for any game state s ∈ S and automaton state w accessible in game state s, the strategy proﬁle induced by {W , w, τ, f }, is a Nash equilibrium of the dynamic game G(s). Our next task is to develop the counterpart for dynamic games of the recursive methods for generating equilibria introduced in section 2.5 for repeated games. Restrict attention to ﬁnite sets of signals (with |S| = m) and pure strategies. For each game state s ∈ S, and each state w ∈ W (s), associate the proﬁle of values Vs (w), deﬁned by Vs (τ (w, f (w), s ))q(s | s, f (w)). Vs (w) = (1 − δ)u(s, f (w)) + δ s ∈S

As is the case with repeated games, Vs (w) is the proﬁle of expected payoffs when beginning the game in game state s and automaton state w. Associate with each game state s ∈ S, and each state w ∈ W (s), the function g (s,w) (a) : A → Rn , where Vs (τ (w, a, s ))q(s | s, a). g (s,w) (a) = (1 − δ)u(s, a) + δ s ∈S

Proposition Suppose the strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automaton (W , w0 , τ, f ). Then

5.7.3 σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if for all game states s ∈ S and all w ∈ W (s), f (w) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoff function g (s,w) . 32. Hence, (W , w0 , τ, f ) is an automaton whose initial state is speciﬁed as a function of the game state, (W , w0 (s), τ, f ) is the automaton whose initial state is given by w0 (s), and (W , w, τ, f ) is the automaton whose initial state is ﬁxed at an arbitrary w ∈ W . 33. Note that w0 (s) is thus accessible in game state s, even if game state s does not have positive probability under q(· | ∅).

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Let W s be a subset of Rn , for s = 1, . . . , m. We interpret this set as a set of feasible payoffs in dynamic game G(s). We say that the pure action proﬁle a ∗ is pure-action enforceable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) given s ∈ S if there exists a function γ : A × S → W 1 ∪ . . . ∪ W m with γ (a, s ) ∈ W s such that for all players i and all ai ∈ Ai , γi (a ∗ , s )q(s | s, a ∗ ) (1 − δ)ui (s, a ∗ ) + δ s ∈S ∗ ≥ (1 − δ)ui (s, ai , a−i )+δ

s ∈S

∗ ∗ γi (ai , a−i , s )q(s | s, ai , a−i ).

We say that the payoff proﬁle v ∈ Rn is pure-action decomposable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) given s ∈ S if there exists a pure action proﬁle a ∗ that is pure-action enforceable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) given s, with the enforcing function γ satisfying, for all players i, γi (a ∗ , s )q(s | s, a ∗ ). vi = (1 − δ)ui (s, a ∗ ) + δ s ∈S

A vector of payoff proﬁles v ≡ (v(1), . . . , v(m)) ∈ Rnm , with v(s) interpreted as a payoff proﬁle in game G(s), is pure-action decomposable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) if for all s ∈ S, v(s) is pure-action decomposable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) given s. Finally, (W 1 , . . . , W m ) is pure-action self-generating if every vector of payoff proﬁles in s 1 m 34 s∈S W is pure-action decomposable on (W , . . . , W ). We then have: Proposition Any self-generating set of payoffs (W 1 , . . . , W m ) is a set of pure-strategy

5.7.4 subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs. As before, we have the corollary: Corollary The set (W 1∗ , . . . , W m∗ ) of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff

5.7.1 proﬁles is the largest pure-action self-generating collection (W 1 , . . . , W m ). Remark Repeated games with random states For these games (see remark 5.5.1), the set

5.7.1 of ex ante feasible payoffs is independent of last period’s state and action proﬁle. Consequently, it is simpler to work with ex ante continuations in the notions of enforceability, decomposability, and pure-action self-generation. A pure action proﬁle a ∗ is pure-action enforceable in state s ∈ S on W ⊂ Rn if there exists a function γ : A → W with such that for all players i and all ai ∈ Ai , ∗ ∗ ) + δγi (ai , a−i ). (1 − δ)ui (s, a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (s, ai , a−i

The ex post payoff proﬁle v s ∈ Rn is pure-action decomposable in state s on W if there exists a pure-action proﬁle a ∗ that is pure-action enforceable in s on W with the enforcing function γ satisfying v s = (1 − δ)u(s, a ∗ ) + δγ (a ∗ ). An ex ante payoff proﬁle v ∈ Rn is pure-action decomposable on W if there exist ex post payoffs {v s : s ∈ S}, v s pure-action decomposable in s on W , such that v = s s v q(s). Finally, W is pure-action self-generating if every payoff proﬁle in W is pure-action decomposable on W . As usual, any self-generating set of ex ante 34. See section 9.7 on games of symmetric incomplete information (in particular, proposition 9.7.1 and lemma 9.7.1) for an application.

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payoffs is a set of subgame-perfect equilibrium ex ante payoffs, with the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium ex ante payoffs being the largest such set. Section 6.3 analyzes a repeated game with random states in which players have an opportunity to insure one another against endowment shocks. Interestingly, this game is an example in which the efﬁcient symmetric equilibrium outcome is sometimes necessarily nonstationary. It is no surprise that the equilibrium itself might not be stationary, that is, that efﬁciency might call for nontrivial intertemporal incentives and their attendant punishments. However, we have the stronger result that efﬁciency cannot be obtained with a stationary-outcome equilibrium. ◆ 5.7.2 A Folk Theorem This section presents a folk theorem for dynamic games. We assume that the action spaces and the set of states are ﬁnite. Let be the set of pure strategies in the dynamic game and let M be the set of pure Markov strategies. For any σ ∈ , let ∞ U δ (σ ) = E σ (1 − δ) δ t u(s t , a t ) t=0

be the expected payoff proﬁle under strategy σ , given discount factor δ. The expectation accounts not only for the possibility of private randomization and public correlation but also for randomness in state transitions, including the determination of the initial state. We let ∞ δ t σ,ht τ −t τ τ δ u(a , s ) U (σ | h ) = E (1 − δ) τ =t

be the analogous expectation conditioned on having observed the history ht , where continuation play is given by σ |ht . As a special case of this, we have the expected payoff U δ (σ | s), which conditions on the initial state realization s. Let F (δ) = {v ∈ Rnm : ∃σ ∈ M s.t. U δ (σ | s) = v(s) ∀s}. This is our counterpart of the set of payoff proﬁles produced by pure stage-game actions in a repeated game. There are two differences here. First, we identify functions that map from initial states to expected payoff proﬁles. Second, we now work directly with the collection of repeated-game payoffs rather than with stage-game payoffs because we have no single underlying stage game. In doing so, we have restricted attention only to payoffs produced by pure Markov strategies. We comment shortly on the reasons for doing so, and in the penultimate paragraph of this section on the sense in which this assumption is not restrictive. We let F = lim F (δ). δ→1

(5.7.1)

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This is our candidate for the set of feasible pure-strategy payoffs available to patient players. We similarly require a notion of minmax payoffs, which we deﬁne contingent on the current state, viδ (s) = inf sup Uiδ (σ | s) σ−i ∈−i σi ∈i

with vi (s) = lim viδ (s). δ→1

(5.7.2)

Dutta (1995, lemma 2, lemma 4) shows that the limits in (5.7.1) and (5.7.2) exist. The restriction to Markov strategies in deﬁning F (δ) is useful here, as it is relatively easy to show that the payoffs to a pure Markov strategy, in the presence of ﬁnite sets of actions and states, are continuous as δ → 1. Finally, we say that the collection of pure strategies {σ 1 , . . . , σ n } is a playerspeciﬁc punishment for v if the limits U (σ i | s) = limδ→1 U δ (σ i | s) exist and the following hold for all s, s , and s in S: Ui (σ i | s ) < vi (s)

(5.7.3)

vi (s ) < Ui (σ i | s ) < Ui (σ j | s).

(5.7.4)

and

We do not require the player-speciﬁc punishments to be Markov. The inequalities in conditions for player-speciﬁc punishments are required to hold uniformly across states. This imposes a tremendous amount of structure on the payoffs involved in these punishments. We comment in the ﬁnal paragraph of this section on sufﬁcient conditions for the existence of such punishments. We then have the pure-strategy folk theorem. Proposition Let v ∈ F be strictly individually rational, in the sense that for all players i and

5.7.5 pairs of states s and s we have

vi (s) > vi (s ), let v admit a player speciﬁc punishment, and suppose that the players have access to a public correlating device. Then, for any ε > 0, there exists δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium σ whose payoffs U (σ | s) are within ε of v(s) for all s ∈ S. The proof of this proposition follows lines that are familiar from proposition 3.4.1 for repeated games. The additional complication introduced by the dynamic game is that there may now be two reasons to deviate from an equilibrium strategy. One is to obtain a higher current payoff. The other, not found in repeated games, is to affect the transitions of the state. In addition, this latter incentive potentially becomes more powerful as the players become more patient, and hence the beneﬁts of affecting the future state become more important. We describe the basic structure of the proof. Dutta (1995) can be consulted for more details.

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Proof We ﬁx a sequence of values of δ approaching 1 and corresponding strategy proﬁles

σ (δ) with the properties that lim U δ (σ (δ) | s) = v(s).

δ→1

This sequence allows us to approach the desired equilibrium payoffs. Moreover, Dutta (1995, proposition 3) shows that there exists a strategy proﬁle σˆ such that for any η > 0, there exists an integer L(η) such that for all T ≥ L(η) and s ∈ S, E

T −1 1 η ui (s t , a t ) ≤ viδ (s) + , T 2

σˆ ,s

t=0

and hence a value δ1 < 1 such that for δ ∈ (δ1 , 1), E σˆ ,s

T −1 1 ui (s t , a t ) ≤ vi (s) + η. T t=0

Let {σ 1 , . . . , σ n } be the player-speciﬁc punishment for v. Conditions (5.7.3) and (5.7.4) ensure that we can ﬁx δ2 ∈ (δ1 , 1), vi ≡ maxs∈S vi (s) and η sufﬁciently small that, for all δ ∈ (δ2 , 1), all i, and for any states s, s and s , vi (s) + η ≤ vi + η < Uiδ (σ i | s ) < vi (s ) and Uiδ (σ i | s) < Uiδ (σ j | s ). We now note that we can assume, for each player i, that the player-speciﬁc punishment σ i has the property that there exists a length of time Ti such that for each t, t = 0, Ti , 2Ti , . . . , and for all ex ante histories ht and ht and states s, σ i |{ht ,s} = σ i |{ht ,s} . Hence, σ i has a cyclical structure, erasing its history and starting from the beginning every Ti periods.35 We can also assume that σ i provides a payoff to player i that is independent of its initial state.36 We hereafter retain these properties for the player speciﬁc punishments. The strategy proﬁle now mimics that used to prove proposition 3.4.1, the corresponding result for repeated games. It begins with play following the strategy proﬁle σ (δ); any deviation by player i from σ (δ), and indeed any deviation from any subsequent equilibrium prescription other than deviations from being 35. Suppose σ i does not have this property. Because each inequality in (5.7.3) and (5.7.4) holds by at least ε, for some ε, we need only choose Ti sufﬁciently large that the average payoff from any strategy proﬁle over its ﬁrst Ti periods is within at least ε/3 of its payoff. Now construct a new strategy by repeatedly playing the ﬁrst Ti periods of σ i , beginning each time with the null history. This new strategy has the desired cyclic structure and satisﬁes (5.7.3) and (5.7.4). Dutta (1995, section 6.2) provides details. 36. Suppose this is not the case. Let s maximize Ui (σ i | s). Deﬁne a new strategy as follows: In each period 0, Ti , 2Ti , . . . , conduct a state-contingent public correlation that mixes between σ i and a strategy that maximizes player i’s repeated-game payoff, with the correlation set so as to equate the continuation payoff for each state s with Ui (σ i | s). The uniform inequalities of the player-speciﬁc punishments ensure this is possible.

198

Chapter 5

■

Variations on the Game

minmaxed, which are ignored, prompts the ﬁrst L periods of the corresponding minmax strategy σˆ i (δ), followed by the play of the player-speciﬁc punishment σ i . Our task now is to show that these strategies constitute a subgame-perfect equilibrium, given the freedom to restrict attention to large discount factors and choose L ≥ L(η). As usual, let M and m be the maximum and minimum stage-game payoffs. The condition for deviations from the equilibrium path to be unproﬁtable is that, for any state s ∈ S (suppressing the dependence of strategies on δ) (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )(vi + η) + δ L+1 Uiδ (σ i ) ≤ Uiδ (σ | s), which, as δ converges to one for ﬁxed L, becomes Ui (σ i ) ≤ vi (s), which holds with strict inequality by virtue of our assumption that v admits player-speciﬁc punishments. There is then a value δ3 ∈ [δ2 , 1) such that this constraint holds for any δ ∈ (δ3 , 1) and L ≥ L(η). For player j to be unwilling to deviate while minmaxing i, the condition is (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )(vj + η) + δ L+1 Ujδ (σ j ) ≤ (1 − δ L )m + δ L Ujδ (σ i ). Rewrite this condition as (1 − δ)M + (1 − δ L )(δ(vj + η) − m) + δ L [δUjδ (σ j ) − Ujδ (σ i )] ≤ 0. The term [δUjδ (σ j ) − Ujδ (σ i )] converges to Uj (σ j ) − Uj (σ i ) < 0 as δ → 1. We can then ﬁnd a value δ4 ∈ [δ3 , 1) and an increasing function L(δ) (≥ L(η)) such that this constraint holds for any δ ∈ (δ4 , 1) and the associated L(δ), and such that δ L(δ) < 1 − γ , for some γ > 0. We hereafter take L to be given by L(δ). Now consider the postminmaxing rewards. For player i to be willing to play i σ , a sufﬁcient condition is that for any ex post history h˜ t under which current play is governed by σ i , (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L(δ) )(vi + η) + δ L(δ)+1 Uiδ (σ i ) ≤ Uiδ (σ i | h˜ t ). This inequality is not obvious. The difﬁculty here is that we cannot exclude the possibility that Uiδ (σ i ) > Uiδ (σ i | h˜ t ). There is no reason to believe that player i’s payoff from strategy σ i is constant across time or states. Should player i ﬁnd himself at an ex post history (ht , s) in which this strategy proﬁle gives a particularly low payoff, i may ﬁnd it optimal to deviate, enduring the resulting minmaxing to return to the relatively high payoff of beginning σ i from the beginning. This is the incentive to deviate to affect the state that does not appear in an ordinary repeated game. In addition, this incentive seemingly only becomes stronger as the player gets more patient, and hence the intervening minmaxing becomes less costly. A similar issue arises in the proof of proposition 3.8.1, the folk theorem for repeated games without public correlation, where we faced the fact that the deterministic sequences of payoffs designed to converge to a target payoff may feature continuation values that differ from the target. In the case of proposition 3.8.1,

5.7

■

Dynamic Games: Equilibrium

199

the response involved a careful balancing of the relative sizes of δ and L. Here, we can use the cyclical nature of the strategy σ i to rewrite this constraint as (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L(δ) )(vi + η) + δ L(δ)+1 Uiδ (σ i ) ≤ (1 − δ Ti )m + δ Ti Uiδ (σ i ), where (1 − δ Ti )m is a lower bound on player i’s payoff from σ i over Ti periods, and then the strategy reverts to payoff Uiδ (σ i ). The key to ensuring this inequality is satisﬁed is to note that Ti is ﬁxed as part of the speciﬁcation of σ i . As a result, limδ→1 δ Ti = 1 while δ L(δ) remains bounded away from 1. A similar argument establishes that a sufﬁciently patient player i has no incentive to deviate when in the middle of strategy σ j . This argument beneﬁts from the fact that a deviation trades a single-period gain for L periods of being minmaxed followed by a return to the less attractive payoff Uiδ (σ i ). Letting δ5 ∈ (δ4 , 1) be the bound on the discount factor to emerge from these two arguments, these strategies constitute a subgame-perfect equilibrium for all δ ∈ (δ5 , 1). ■

We have worked throughout with pure strategies and with pure Markov strategies when deﬁning feasible payoffs. Notice ﬁrst that these are pure strategies in the dynamic game. We are thus not restricting ourselves to the set of payoffs that can be achieved in pure stage-game actions. This makes the pure strategy restriction less severe than it may ﬁrst appear. In addition, any feasible payoff can be achieved by publicly mixing over pure Markov strategies (Dutta 1995, lemma 1), so that the Markov restriction is also not restrictive in the presence of public correlation (which we used in modifying the player-speciﬁc punishments in the proof). Another aspect of this proposition can be more directly traced to the dynamic structure of the game. We have worked with a function v that speciﬁes a payoff proﬁle for each state. Suppose instead we deﬁned, for each s ∈ S, F (δ, s) = {v ∈ Rn : ∃σ ∈ M s.t. U δ (σ | s) = v}, the set of feasible payoffs (in pure Markov strategies) given initial state s, with F (s) = limδ→1 F (δ, s). Let us say that a stochastic game is communicating if for any pair of states s and s , there is a strategy σ and a time t such that if the game begins in state s, there is positive probability under strategy σ that the game is in state s in period t. Dutta (1995, lemma 12) shows that in communicating games, F (s) is independent of s. If the game communicates independently of the actions of player i, for each i, then minmax values will also be independent of the state. In this case, we can formulate the folk theorem for stochastic games in terms of payoff proﬁles v ∈ Rn and minmax proﬁles vi that do not depend on the initial state. In addition, full dimensionality of the convex hull of F then sufﬁces for the existence of player-speciﬁc punishments for interior v. We can establish a similar result in games in which F (δ, s) depends on s (and hence which are not communicating), in terms of payoffs that do not depend on the initial state by concentrating on those payoffs in the set ∩s∈S F (s).

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6 Applications

This chapter offers three examples of how repeated games of perfect monitoring have been used to address questions of economic behavior.

6.1

Price Wars

More stage-game outcomes can be supported as repeated-game equilibrium actions in some circumstances than in others. This section exploits this insight in a simple model of collusion between imperfectly competitive ﬁrms. We are interested in whether successful collusion is likely to be procyclical or countercyclical.1 6.1.1 Independent Price Shocks We consider a market with n ﬁrms who costlessly produce a homogeneous output. In each period of the inﬁnitely repeated game, a state s is ﬁrst drawn from the ﬁnite set S and revealed to the ﬁrms. The state s is independently drawn in each period, with q(s) being the probability of state s. We thus have a repeated game with random states (remarks 5.5.1 and 5.7.1). After observing the states, the ﬁrms simultaneously choose prices for that period. If the state is s and the ﬁrms set prices p1 , . . . , pn , then the quantity demanded is given by s − min{p1 , . . . , pn }. This quantity is split evenly among those ﬁrms who set the minimum price.2 The stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium outcome in which the minimum price is set at 0 in every period and each ﬁrm earns a 0 payoff. This is the mutual minmax payoff for this game. In contrast, the myopic monopoly price in state s is s/2, for a total payoff of (s/2)2 . Higher states feature higher monopoly proﬁts—it is more valuable to (perfectly) collude when demand is high. However, it is also more lucrative to undercut the market price slightly, capturing the entire market at only a slightly smaller price, when demand is high. 1. This example is motivated by Rotemberg and Saloner (1986), who establish conditions under which oligopolistic ﬁrms will behave more competitively when demand is high rather than low. 2. This game violates assumption 2.1.1, because action sets are continua while the payoff function has discontinuities. The existence of a stage-game Nash equilibrium is immediate, so the discontinuity poses no difﬁculties.

201

202

Chapter 6

■

Applications

In the repeated game, the ﬁrms have a common discount factor δ. We consider the strongly symmetric equilibrium that maximizes the ﬁrms’ expected payoffs, which we refer to as the most collusive equilibrium. Along the equilibrium path, the ﬁrms set a price denoted by p(s) whenever the state is s. Given our interest in an equilibrium that maximizes the ﬁrms’ expected payoffs, we can immediately assume that p(s) ≤ s/2, and can assume that deviations from equilibrium play are punished by perpetual minmaxing. Let v ∗ be the expected payoff from such a strategy proﬁle. Necessary and sufﬁcient conditions for the strategy proﬁle to be an equilibrium are, for each state s, 1 (1 − δ)p(s)(s − p(s)) + δv ∗ ≥ (1 − δ)p(s)(s − p(s)), n

(6.1.1)

where v∗ =

1 p(ˆs )(ˆs − p(ˆs ))q(ˆs ). n

(6.1.2)

sˆ ∈S

Condition (6.1.1) ensures that the ﬁrm would prefer to set the prescribed price p(s) and receive the continuation value v ∗ rather than deviate to a slightly smaller price (where the right side is the supremum over such prices) followed by subsequent minmaxing. Condition (6.1.2) gives the continuation value v ∗ , which is independent of the current state. We are interested in the function p(s) that maximizes v ∗ , among those that satisfy (6.1.1)–(6.1.2). For sufﬁciently large δ, the expected payoff v ∗ is maximized by setting p(s) = s/2, the myopic proﬁt maximizing price, for every state s. This reﬂects the fact that the current state of demand fades into insigniﬁcance for high discount factors. Suppose that the discount factor is too low for this to be an equilibrium. In the most collusive equilibrium, the constraint (6.1.1) can be rewritten as nδv ∗ ≥ p(s)(s − p(s)). (n − 1)(1 − δ)

(6.1.3)

Hence, there exists s¯ < max S such that for all s > s¯ , p(s) is the smaller of the two roots solving, from (6.1.3),3 p(s)(s − p(s)) =

nδv ∗ , (n − 1)(1 − δ)

(6.1.4)

and if s¯ ∈ S, then for all s ≤ s¯ , p(s) is the myopic monopoly price p(s) = 2s . It is immediate from (6.1.4) that for s > s¯ , p(s) is decreasing in s, giving countercyclical collusion in high states. The most proﬁtable deviation open to a ﬁrm is to 3. One of the solutions to (6.1.4) is larger than the myopic monopoly price and one smaller, with the latter being the root of interest. Deviations from any price higher than the monopoly price are as proﬁtable as deviations from the monopoly price, so that the inability to enforce the monopoly price ensures that no higher price can be enforced.

6.1

■

203

Price Wars

undercut the equilibrium price by a minuscule margin, jumping from a 1/n share of the market to the entire market, at essentially the current price. The higher the state, the more tempting this deviation. For states s > s¯ , this deviation is proﬁtable if ﬁrms set the monopoly price. They must accordingly set a price lower than the monopoly price, reducing the value of the market and hence the temptation to capture the entire market. The higher the state, and hence the higher the quantity demanded at any given price, the lower must the equilibrium price be to render this deviation unproﬁtable. The function p(s) is thus decreasing for s > s¯ .4 In periods of relatively high demand, colluding ﬁrms set lower prices. 6.1.2 Correlated Price Shocks The demand shocks in section 6.1.1 are independently and identically distributed over time. Future values of the equilibrium path are then independent of the current realization of the demand shock, simplifying the incentive constraint given by (6.1.1). However, this assumption creates some tension with the interpretation of the model as describing how price wars might arise during economic booms or how pricing policies might change over the course of a business cycle. Instead of independent distributions, one might expect the shock describing a business cycle to exhibit some persistence. If this persistence is sufﬁciently strong, then collusion may no longer be countercyclical. It is still especially proﬁtable to cheat on a collusive agreement when demand is high, but continuation payoffs are now also especially lucrative in such states, making cheating more costly. We illustrate these issues with a simple example. Let there be two ﬁrms. Demand can be either high (s = 2) or low (s = 1). The ﬁrms have discount factor δ = 11/20. When demand is low, joint proﬁt maximization requires that each ﬁrm set a price of 1/2, earning a payoff of 1/8. When demand is high, joint proﬁt maximization calls for a price of 1, with accompanying payoff of 1/2. Consider the most collusive equilibrium with independent equally likely shocks. When demand is low, each ﬁrm sets price 1/2. When demand is high, each ﬁrm sets price p, ˜ the highest price for which the high-demand incentive constraint, ˜ − p) ˜ + δ 12 18 + 12 12 p(2 ˜ − p) ˜ , sup [(1 − δ)p(2 − p)] ≤ (1 − δ) 12 p(2 p s¯ . Section 6.1.2 presents an example.

204

Chapter 6

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Applications

Now suppose that the state is given by a Markov process. The prior distribution makes high and low demand equally likely in the ﬁrst period, and thereafter the period t state is identical to the period t−1 state with probability 1 − φ and switches to the other state with probability φ. Suppose φ is quite small, so that rather than being almost independent draws, we have persistent states. Consider a strategy proﬁle in which the myopic monopoly price is set in each period, with deviations again prompting perpetual minmaxing. As φ approaches 0, the continuation value under this proﬁle approaches 1/8 when the current state is low and 1/2 when the current state is high, each reﬂecting the value of receiving half of the monopoly proﬁts in every future period, with the state held ﬁxed at its current value. The incentive constraints for equilibrium approach sup (1 − δ)p(1 − p) ≤ p< 12

1 8

and sup (1 − δ)p(2 − p) ≤ 12 .

p 0 such that if φ ≤ φ ∗ , there exists an equilibrium in which ﬁrms set the myopic monopoly price in each period. Collusion is now procyclical in the sense that higher prices and proﬁts appear when demand is high.5 Repeated games can thus serve as a framework for assessing patterns of collusion over the business cycle, but the conclusions depend importantly on the nature of the cycle.

6.2

Time Consistency

6.2.1 The Stage Game The stage game is a simple model of an economy. Player 1 is a government. The role of player 2 is played by a unit continuum of small and anonymous investor/consumers. As we have noted in section 2.7 (in particular in remark 2.7.1), this has the effect of ensuring that player 2 is a short-lived player when we consider the repeated game. Each consumer is endowed with one unit of a consumption good. The consumer divides this unit between consumption c and capital 1 − c. Capital earns a gross return of R, so that the consumer amasses R(1 − c) units of capital. The government sets a tax rate t on capital, collecting revenue tR(1 − c), with which it produces a public good. One unit of revenue produces γ > 1 of the public good, where R − 1 < γ < R. Untaxed capital is consumed.6 5. Bagwell and Staiger (1997), Haltiwanger and Harrington (1991), and Kandori (1991b) examine variations on this model with correlated shocks, establishing conditions under which collusive behavior is either more or less likely to occur during booms or recessions. 6. In a richer economic environment, period t untaxed capital is the period t+1 endowment, and so investors face a nontrivial intertemporal optimization problem. The essentials of the analysis are unchanged, because small and anonymous investors (while intertemporally optimizing) assume their individual behavior will not affect the government’s behavior. Small and anonymous players who intertemporally optimize appear in example 5.5.3.

6.2

■

205

Time Consistency

t 1

A t (c )

γ R

B

R −1 R

C c (t )

1

c

Figure 6.2.1 Consumer best response c(t) as a function of the tax rate t, and government best response t (c) as a function of the consumption c. The unique stage-game equilibrium outcome features c = 1, as at A, whereas the efﬁcient allocation is B and the constrained (by consumer best responses) efﬁcient allocation is C.

The consumer’s utility is given by

√ c + (1 − t)R(1 − c) + 2 G,

(6.2.1)

where G is the quantity of public good. The government chooses its tax rates to maximize the representative consumer’s utility (i.e., the government is benevolent). We examine equilibria in which the consumers choose identical strategies. Each individual consumer makes a negligible contribution to the government’s tax revenues, and accordingly treats G as ﬁxed. The consumer thus chooses c to maximize c + (1 − t)R(1 − c). The consumer’s optimal behavior, as a function of the government’s tax rate t, is then given by: 0, if t < R−1 , R c= 1, if t > R−1 . R When every consumer chooses consumption level c, the government’s best response is to choose the tax rate maximizing ' c + (1 − t)R(1 − c) + 2 γ tR(1 − c), where the government recognizes that the quantity of the public good depends on its tax rate. The government’s optimal tax rate as a function of c is γ ,1 . t = min (6.2.2) R(1 − c) Figure 6.2.1 illustrates the best responses of consumers and the government.7 7. We omit in ﬁgure 6.2.1 the fact that if consumers set c = 1, investing none of their endowment, then the government is indifferent over all tax rates, because all raise a revenue of 0.

206

Chapter 6

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Applications

Because the government’s objective is to maximize the consumers’ utilities, it appears as if there should be no conﬂict of interest in this economy. The efﬁcient outcome calls for consumers to set c = 0. Because R > 1, investing in capital is productive, and because the option remains of using the accumulated capital for either consumption or the public good, this ensures that it is efﬁcient to invest all of the endowment. The optimal tax rate (from (6.2.2)) is t = γ /R. This gives the allocation B in ﬁgure 6.2.1.

6.2.2 Equilibrium, Commitment, and Time Consistency It is apparent from ﬁgure 6.2.1 that the stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium outcome in which consumers invest none of their endowment (c = 1) and the government tax rate is set sufﬁciently high as to make investments suboptimal. Outcome A in ﬁgure 6.2.1 is an example.8 No matter what consumers do, the government’s best response is a tax rate above (R − 1)/R, the maximum rate at which consumers ﬁnd it optimal to invest. No equilibrium can then feature positive investment by consumers. Notice that the stage-game equilibrium minmaxes both the consumer and the government. It is impossible to obtain the efﬁcient allocation (B in ﬁgure 6.2.1) as an equilibrium outcome, even in a repeated game. The consumers are not choosing best responses at B, whereas small and anonymous players must play best responses either in a stagegame equilibrium or in each period of a repeated-game equilibrium (section 2.7). Constraining consumers to choose best responses, the allocation that maximizes the government’s (and hence also the consumers’) payoffs is C in ﬁgure 6.2.1. The government sets the highest tax rate consistent with consumers’ investing, given by (R − 1)/R, and the latter invest all of their endowment. Let v¯1 denote the resulting payoff proﬁle for the government (this is the pure-action Stackelberg payoff of section 2.7.2). If the government could choose its tax rate ﬁrst with this choice observed by consumers before they make their investment decisions, then it can guarantee a payoff (arbitrarily close to) v¯1 . In the absence of the ability to do so, we can say that the government has a commitment problem—its payoff could be increased by the ability to commit to a tax rate before consumers make their choices. Alternatively, this is often described as a time consistency problem, or the government is described as having a tax rate ((R − 1)/R) that is optimal but time inconsistent (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). In keeping with the temporal connotation of the phrase, it is common to present the game with a sequential structure. For example, we might let consumers choose their allocations ﬁrst, to be observed by the government, who then chooses a tax rate. The unique subgame-perfect equilibrium of this sequential stage game again features no investment, whereas a better outcome could be obtained if the government could commit to the time-inconsistent tax rate of (R − 1)/R. Alternatively, we might precede either the simultaneous or sequential stage game with a stage at which the government makes a cheap-talk announcement of what its tax rate 8. There are other Nash equilibria in which the government sets a tax rate less than 1 (because the government is indifferent over all tax rates when c = 1), but they all involve c = 1.

6.2

■

207

Time Consistency

tc

t *c t ≠ t*

wL

wH

w0 Figure 6.2.2 Candidate equilibrium for repeated game. In the low-tax/ investment state wL , the government chooses t = t ∗ and consumers invest everything, and in the high-tax/no-investment state wH , the government chooses t = 1 and consumers invest nothing.

is going to be. Here, time inconsistency appears in the fact that the government would then prefer an announcement that would induce investment, if there were any, but any such announcement would be followed by an optimal tax rate that rendered the investment suboptimal. Again, this is ultimately the observation that the government’s payoff could be increased by the ability to commit to an action. 6.2.3 The Infinitely Repeated Game Now suppose that the stage game is inﬁnitely repeated, with the government discounting at rate δ.9 As expected, repeated play potentially allows the government to effectively commit to more moderate tax rates. Let t ∗ ≡ (R − 1)/R be the optimal tax rate and consider the strategy proﬁle described by the automaton (W , wL , f, τ ), with states W = {wL , wH }, output function f (w) =

(t ∗ , 0),

if w = wL ,

(1, 1),

if w = wH ,

and transition function (where c is the average consumption), τ (w, (t, c)) =

wL ,

if w = wL and t = t ∗ ,

wH ,

otherwise.

This is a grim-trigger proﬁle with a low-tax/investment state wL and a high-tax/noinvestment state wH . The proﬁle is illustrated in ﬁgure 6.2.2. The government begins with tax rate t ∗ = (R − 1)/R and consumers begin by investing all of their endowment. These actions are repeated, in the absence of deviations, and any deviation prompts a reversion to the permanent play of the (minmaxing) stage-game equilibrium. Because it involves the play of stage-game Nash equilibrium, reversion to perpetual minmaxing is a continuation equilibrium of the repeated game and is also the most severe punishment that can be inﬂicted in the repeated game. The government is not playing a best response along the proposed equilibrium path but refrains from setting higher tax rates to avoid triggering the punishment. 9. The stage game is unchanged, so that in each period capital is either taxed away to support the public good or consumed but cannot be transferred across periods.

208

Chapter 6

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Applications

Proposition There exists δ such that, for all δ ∈ [δ, 1), the strategy proﬁle (W , wL , f, τ ) of

6.2.1 ﬁgure 6.2.2 is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game in which the constrained efﬁcient allocation (C in ﬁgure 6.2.1) is obtained in every period. Proof Given c = 0, the most proﬁtable deviation by the government is to the optimal

tax rate of γ /R, for a payoff gain of

' R−1 γ + 2γ − R 1 − + 2 γ (R − 1) ≡ > 0. R 1− R R We then need only note that the strategy presented in ﬁgure 6.2.2 is an equilibrium if (1 − δ) ≤ δ(v¯1 − v1 ), where v1 is the government’s minmax payoffs. This inequality holds for sufﬁciently large δ. ■

The tax policy of the government described by the automaton of ﬁgure 6.2.2 is sometimes called a sustainable plan (Chari and Kehoe, 1990). We have presented the simplest possible economic environment consistent with time consistency being an issue. Similar issues arise in more complicated economic environments, where agents (both private and the government) may have contracting opportunities, investment decisions may have intertemporal consequences, and markets may be incomplete. In such settings, the model will not be a repeated game. However, the model typically shares some critical features with the example here: The government is a large longlived player, whereas the private agents are small and anonymous. The literature on sustainable plans exploits the strategic similarity between such economic models and repeated games.10

6.3

Risk Sharing

We now examine consumption dynamics in a simpliﬁcation of a model introduced by Kocherlakota (1996) (and discussed by Ljungqvist and Sargent, 2004, chapters 19–20).11 10. For example, Chari and Kehoe (1993a,b) examine the question of why governments repay their debts and why governments are able to issue debt in the ﬁrst place, given the risk that they will not repay. Domestic debt can be effectively repudiated by inﬂation or taxation, but there is seemingly no obstacle to an outright repudiation of foreign debt. Why is debt repaid? The common explanation is that its repudiation would preclude access to future borrowing. Although intuitive, a number of subtleties arise in making this explanation precise. Chari and Kehoe (1993b) show that a government can commit to issuing and repaying debt, on the strength of default triggering a reversion to a balanced budget continuation equilibrium, only if the government cannot enforce contracts in which it lends to its citizens. Such contracts can be enforced in Chari and Kehoe (1993a), and hence simple trigger strategies will not sustain equilibria with government debt. More complicated strategies do allow equilibria with debt. These include a case in which multiple balanced budget equilibria can be used to sustain equilibria with debt in ﬁnite horizon games. 11. Thomas and Worrall (1988) and Ligon, Thomas, and Worrall (2002) present related models. Koeppl (2003) qualiﬁes Kocherlakota’s (1996) analysis, see note 14 on page 219.

6.3

■

Risk Sharing

209

Interest in consumption dynamics stems from the following stylized facts: Conditional on the level of aggregate consumption, individual consumption is positively correlated with current and lagged values of individual income. People consume more when they earn more, and people consume more when they have earned more in the past. At ﬁrst glance, nothing could seem more natural—the rich consume more than the poor. On closer inspection, however, the observation is more challenging. The pattern observed in the data is not simply that the rich consume more than the poor but that the consumption levels of the poor and rich alike are sensitive to their current and past income levels (controlling for a variety of factors, such as aggregate consumption, so that we are not simply making the observation that everyone consumes more when more is available). If a risk-averse agent’s income varies, there are gains to be had from smoothing the resulting consumption stream by insuring against the income ﬂuctuations. Why aren’t consumption ﬂuctuations perfectly insured? One common answer, to which we return in chapter 11, is based on the adverse selection that arises naturally in games of imperfect monitoring. It can be difﬁcult to insure an agent against income shocks if only that agent observes the shocks. Here, we examine an alternative possibility based on moral hazard constraints that arise even in the presence of perfectly monitored shocks to income. We work with a model in which agents are subject to perfectly observed income shocks. In the absence of any impediments to contracting on these shocks, the agents should enter into insurance contracts with one another, with each agent i making transfers to others when i’s income is relatively high and receiving transfers when i’s income is relatively low. In the simple examples we consider here, featuring no ﬂuctuations in aggregate income, each agent’s equilibrium consumption would be constant across states (though perhaps with some agents consuming more than others). We refer to this as a full insurance allocation. The conventional wisdom is that consumption ﬂuctuates more than is warranted under a full insurance allocation. This excess consumption sensitivity must represent some difﬁculties in conditioning consumption on income. We focus here on one such difﬁculty, an inability to write contracts committing to future payments. In particular, in each period, and after observing the current state, each agent is free to abandon the current insurance contract.12 As a result, any dependence of current behavior on current income must satisfy incentive constraints. The dynamics of consumption and income arise out of this restriction. 6.3.1 The Economy The stage game features two consumers, 1 and 2. There is a single consumption good. A random draw ﬁrst determines the players’ endowments of the consumption good to 12. Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004, chapter 19) examine a variation on this model in which one side of the insurance contract can be bound to the contract, whereas the other is free to abandon the contract at any time. Such a case would arise if an insurance company can commit to insurance policies with its customers, who can terminate their policies at will. We follow Kocherlakota (1996), Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004, chapter 20), and Thomas and Worrall (1988) in examining a model in which either party to an insurance contract has the ability to abandon the contract at will.

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be either e(1) ≡ (y, ¯ y) or e(2) ≡ (y, y), ¯ with player 1’s endowment listed ﬁrst in each case and with y¯ = 1 − y ∈ (1/2, 1). Player i thus fares relatively well in state i. Each state is equally likely. After observing the endowment e(i), players 1 and 2 simultaneously transfer nonnegative quantities of the consumption good to one another and then consume the resulting net quantities c1 (i) and c2 (i), evaluated according to the utility function u(·). The function u is strictly increasing and strictly concave, so that players are risk averse. This stage game obviously has a unique Nash equilibrium outcome in which no transfers are made. Because the consumers are risk averse, this outcome is inefﬁcient. Suppose now that the consumers are inﬁnitely lived, playing the game in each period t = 0, 1, . . . The endowment draws are independent across periods, with the two endowments equally likely in each period. We thus again have a repeated game with random states (remarks 5.5.1 and 5.7.1). Players discount at the common rate δ. An ex ante period t history is a sequence identifying the endowment and the transfers in each previous period. However, smaller transfers pose less stringent incentive constraints than do larger ones, and hence we need never consider cases in which the agents make simultaneous transfers, replacing them with an equivalent outcome in which one agent makes the net transfer and the other agent makes none. We accordingly take an ex ante period t history to be a sequence ((e0 , c10 , c20 ), . . . , (et−1 , c1t−1 , c2t−1 )) identifying the endowment and the consumption levels of the two agents in each previous period. An ex post period t history is the combination of an ex ante history and a selection of the period t state. We let H˜ t denote the set of period t ex post histories, with typical element h˜ t . Let H˜ denote the set of ex post histories. A pure strategy for player i is a function σi : H˜ → [0, 1], identifying the amount player i transfers after each ex post history (i.e., after each ex ante history and realized endowment). Transfers must satisfy the feasibility requirement of not exceeding the agent’s endowment, that is, σi (ht , e) ≤ yi where yi is i’s endowment in e. When convenient, we describe strategy proﬁles in terms of the consumption levels rather than transfers that are associated with a history. We consider pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibria of the repeated game.

6.3.2 Full Insurance Allocations The consumers in this economy can increase their payoffs by insuring each other against the endowment risk. An ex post history is a consistent history under a strategy proﬁle σ if, given the implied endowment history, in each period the transfers in the history are those speciﬁed by σ . Definition A strategy proﬁle σ features full insurance if there is a quantity c such that

6.3.1 after every consistent ex post history under σ , player 1 consumes c and 2 consumes 1 − c. As the name suggests, player 1’s (and hence player 2’s) consumption does not vary across histories in a full insurance outcome. Note that under this outcome, we have full intertemporal consumption smoothing as well as full insurance with respect to the uncertain realization of endowments. Risk-averse players strictly prefer smooth consumption proﬁles over time as well as states. We refer to the resulting payoffs as

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u (c2 )

(u ( y ), u ( y ))

u ( 12) v

(u ( y ), u ( y )) u( y) u( y)

v

u ( 12 )

u (c1 )

Figure 6.3.1 The set F ∗ of feasible, strictly individually rational

payoffs consists of those payoff pairs (weakly) below the frontier connecting (u(y), u(y)) ¯ and (u(y), ¯ u(y)), and giving each player a payoff in excess of v.

full insurance payoffs. There are many full insurance proﬁles that differ in how they distribute payoffs across the two agents. When can full insurance strategy proﬁles be subgame-perfect equilibria? As usual, we start by examining the punishments that can be used to construct an equilibrium. The minmax payoff for each agent i is given by v = 12 u(y) ¯ + 12 u(y). The players have identical minmax payoffs, and hence no subscript is required. Each player i can ensure at least this payoff simply by never making any transfers to player j . Figure 6.3.1 illustrates the set F ∗ of feasible, strictly individually rational payoffs for this game. Any of the payoff proﬁles along the frontier of F ∗ is a potential full insurance payoff, characterized by different allocations of the surplus between the two players. The unique Nash equilibrium of the stage game features no transfers, and hence strategies that never make transfers are a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game. Because this equilibrium produces the minmax payoffs, it is the most severe punishment that can be imposed. We refer to this as the autarkic equilibrium. Now ﬁx a full insurance strategy proﬁle and let (c1 , c2 ) be the corresponding consumption of agents 1 and 2 after any (and every) history. Let the strategy proﬁle specify play of the autarkic equilibrium after any nonequilibrium history. For this strategy proﬁle to be a subgame-perfect equilibrium, it must satisfy the incentive constraints given by ¯ + δv u(c1 ) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y) and

¯ + δv. u(c2 ) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y)

These ensure that deviating from the equilibrium to keep the entire relatively high endowment y, ¯ when faced with the opportunity to do so, does not dominate the equilibrium payoff for either player. These constraints are most easily satisﬁed

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(i.e., are satisﬁed for the largest set of discount factors, if any) when c1 = c2 = 1/2. Hence, there exists at least one full-insurance equilibrium as long as u 12 − v 1−δ ≤ . δ u(y) ¯ − u 12 Let δ ∗ denote the value of the discount factor that solves this relationship with equality, and hence the minimum discount factor for supporting a full insurance equilibrium. When δ = δ ∗ , this equal-payoff equilibrium is the only full insurance equilibrium outcome. Full insurance outcomes with asymmetric payoffs create stronger incentives for deviation on the part of the player receiving the relatively small payoff and hence require larger discount factors. The set of full insurance outcomes expands as the discount factor increases above δ ∗ , encompassing in the limit as δ → 1 any full insurance payoff that gives each player a payoff strictly larger than v. 6.3.3 Partial Insurance Suppose that δ falls short of δ ∗ , so that full insurance is impossible. If δ is not too small, we can nonetheless support equilibrium outcomes that do not simply repeat the stage-game Nash equilibrium in each period. To show this, we consider a class of equilibria with stationary outcomes in which the agents consume (y¯ − ε, y + ε) after any ex post history ending in endowment e(1) and (y + ε, y¯ − ε) in endowment e(2). Hence, the high-income player transfers ε of his endowment to the other player. In the full insurance equilibrium ε = y¯ − 12 = 12 − y ≡ ε ∗ . The incentive constraint for the high-endowment agent to ﬁnd this transfer optimal is 1 (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv ≤ (1 − δ)u(y¯ − ε) + δ [u(y¯ − ε) + u(y + ε)], 2 or 1−δ ≤ δ

(6.3.1)

1 2 [u(y¯

− ε) + u(y + ε)] − v . u(y) ¯ − u(y¯ − ε)

Now consider the derivative of the right side of this expression in ε, evaluated at ε = ε ∗ . The derivative has the same sign as − u 12 − v u 12 < 0. Hence, reducing ε below ε∗ increases the upper bound on (1 − δ)/δ for satisfying the incentive constraint, thereby decreasing the bound on values of δ for which the incentive constraint can be satisﬁed. This implies that there are values of the discount factor that will not support full insurance but will support stationary-outcome equilibria featuring partial insurance. For a ﬁxed value of δ < δ ∗ , with δ sufﬁciently large, there is a largest value of ε for which the incentive constraint given by (6.3.1) holds with equality. This value of ε describes the efﬁcient, (ex ante) strongly symmetric, stationary-outcome equilibrium

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given δ, in which consumption is (y¯ − ε, y + ε) in endowment 1 and (y + ε, y¯ − ε) in endowment 2. It will be helpful to refer to this largest value of ε as εˆ and to refer to the associated equilibrium as σˆ . There is a collection of additional stationary-outcome equilibria in which the high-endowment agent makes transfer ε to the low-endowment agent for any ε ∈ [0, εˆ ). These equilibria give symmetric payoffs that are strictly dominated by the payoffs produced by σˆ . There also exist equilibria with stationary outcomes that give asymmetric payoffs, with agent i making a transfer εi to agent j whenever i has a high endowment, and with ε1 = ε2 . 6.3.4 Consumption Dynamics We continue to suppose that δ < δ ∗ , so that players are too impatient to support a full insurance outcome, but that the discount factor nonetheless allows them to support a nontrivial subgame-perfect equilibrium. The equilibrium σˆ is the efﬁcient stationaryoutcome, strongly symmetric equilibrium. We now characterize the frontier of efﬁcient equilibria. Consider an ex ante history that induces equilibrium consumption proﬁles c(1) and c(2) and equilibrium continuation payoff proﬁles γ (1) and γ (2) in states 1 and 2. Then these proﬁles satisfy ¯ + δv, (1 − δ)u(c1 (1)) + δγ1 (1) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y)

(6.3.2)

(1 − δ)u(c1 (2)) + δγ1 (2) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y) + δv,

(6.3.3)

(1 − δ)u(1 − c1 (2)) + δγ2 (2) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv,

(6.3.4)

(1 − δ)u(1 − c1 (1)) + δγ2 (1) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y) + δv.

(6.3.5)

and

These incentive constraints require that each agent in each endowment prefer the equilibrium payoff to the punishment of entering the autarkic equilibrium. As is typically the case with problems of this type, we expect only two of these constraints to bind, namely, those indicating that the high-income agent be willing to make an appropriate transfer to the low-income agent. Fix a pure strategy proﬁle σ . For each endowment history et ≡ (e0 , e1 , . . . , et ), only one period t ex post history is consistent under σ . Accordingly, we can write σ [et ] for the period t transfers after the ex post history consistent under σ with endowment history et . This allows us to construct a useful tool for examining equilibria. Consider two pure strategy proﬁles σ and σˇ . We recursively construct a strategy proﬁle σ¯ as follows. To begin, let σ¯ (e0 ) = 1 σ (e0 ) + 1 σˇ (e0 ). Then ﬁx an ex post history h¯ t 2

2

and let et be the sequence of endowments realized under this history. For each of σ and σˇ , there is a unique consistent ex post history associated with et , denoted by ht and hˇ t . If h¯ t is a consistent history under σ¯ , then let σ¯ (h¯ t ) = 12 σ (ht ) + 12 σˇ (hˇ t ), i.e., σ¯ [et ] = 12 σ [et ] + 12 σˇ [et ] for all et . Otherwise, the autarkic equilibrium actions are played. We refer to σ¯ as the average of σ and σˇ .

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Lemma If σ and σˇ are equilibrium strategy proﬁles, then so is their average, σ¯ . Moreover,

6.3.1 Ui (σ¯ ) ≥ (Ui (σ ) + Ui (σˇ ))/2 for i = 1, 2.

Proof The average σ¯ speciﬁes the stage-game equilibrium at any history that is not

consistent under σ¯ , so we need only consider histories consistent under σ¯ . We know that σ and σˇ satisfy (6.3.2)–(6.3.5) for every consistent history and must show that σ¯ does so. Notice that the right side of each constraint is independent of the strategy proﬁle, and therefore we need show only that σ¯ gives a left side of each constraint at least as large as the average of the values obtained from σ and σˇ . The critical observation is that for any endowment history, the period t consumption proﬁle under σ¯ is the average of the corresponding consumption proﬁles under σ and σˇ , and so ui (σ¯ [et ]) ≥

ui (σ [et ]) + ui (σˇ [et ]) . 2

Because this observation holds for all endowment histories, and i’s expected payoff from a proﬁle σ is Ui (σ ) = (1 − δ)

∞

δ t E[ui (σ [et ])],

t=0

where the expectation is taken over endowment histories, we then have Ui (σ¯ ) ≥

Ui (σ ) + Ui (σˇ ) . 2

Moreover, similar inequalities hold conditional on any endowment history, and so if σ and σˇ satisfy (6.3.2)–(6.3.5), so does σ¯ . ■

This result allows us to identify one point on the efﬁcient frontier. The stationarity and strong symmetry constraints that we imposed when constructing the equilibrium proﬁle σˆ are not binding: Lemma The efﬁcient, strongly symmetric, stationary-outcome equilibrium strategy proﬁle

6.3.2 σˆ is the strongly efﬁcient, symmetric-payoff equilibrium. Proof Suppose that σ is an equilibrium strategy proﬁle with symmetric payoffs that

strictly dominate those of σˆ . Let σ be the strategy proﬁle obtained from σ that reverses the roles of players 1 and 2. Then, σ also has symmetric payoffs that strictly dominate those of σˆ . Lemma 6.3.1 then implies that σ¯ , the average of σ and σ , is a strongly symmetric strategy proﬁle, whose payoffs strictly dominate those of σˆ . We now construct a stationary-outcome strongly symmetric equilibrium, with payoffs at least as high as σ¯ , by replacing any low-payoff continuation with the highest payoff continuation. Because ci (s) is then the same after each ex ante history, the proﬁle σ¯ is a stationary-outcome, strongly symmetric equilibrium with payoffs higher than those of σˆ , a contradiction. ■

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We now characterize efﬁcient equilibria as solutions to a maximization problem. Recall that E p is the set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs. The task is to choose current consumption levels c1 (1) and c1 (2), giving agent 1’s consumption in states 1 and 2, and continuation payoffs γ (1) and γ (2) in states 1 and 2, to maximize 1 2 {(1 − δ)[u(c1 (1)) + u(c1 (2))] + δ[γ1 (1) + γ1 (2)]}

subject to (6.3.2)–(6.3.5), 1 2 ((1 − δ)[u(1 − c1 (1)) + u(1 − c1 (2))] + δ[γ2 (1) + γ2 (2)])

≥ v2

and γ (1), γ (2) ∈ E p . We describe this constrained optimization problem as max1. The problem max1 maximizes player 1’s payoff given a ﬁxed payoff for player 2 over the current consumption plan, identiﬁed by c1 (1) and c1 (2), and the continuation payoffs γ (1) and γ (2). Each of the latter is a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff proﬁle, as ensured by the ﬁnal constraint. The ﬁrst displayed constraint ensures that player 2’s target utility is realized. Lemma Fix v2 and suppose that problem max1 has a solution in which (6.3.2)–(6.3.5) do

6.3.3 not bind. Then c1 (1) = c1 (2) and

γ2 (1) = γ2 (2) = v2 .

This in turn implies that there exists an equilibrium featuring c1 (1) = c1 (2) after every history, and hence full insurance. Proof Suppose that we have a solution to the optimization problem max1 in which

none of the incentive constraints bind. Then c1 (1) = c1 (2), that is, consumption does not vary with the endowment. (Suppose this were not the case, so that c1 (1) > c1 (2). Then the current consumption levels can be replaced by a smaller value of c1 (1) and larger c1 (2) while preserving their expected value and the incentive constraints. But given the concavity of the utility function, this increases both players’ utilities, ensuring that the candidate solution was not optimal.) Next, suppose that γ2 (1) = γ2 (2), so that continuation utilities vary with the state. Then states 1 and 2 must be followed by different continuation equilibria. The average of these equilibria is an equilibrium with higher average utility (lemma 6.3.1) and hence yields a contradiction. Finally, suppose that γ2 (1) = γ2 (2) = v2 . Then the equilibrium features a consumption allocation for player 2 that is not constant over equilibrium histories, and the current expected utility v2 is a convex combination of the consumption levels attached to these histories. Let c2∗ solve u(c2 ) = (1 − δ)u(1 − c1 ) + δγ2 , where c1 is 1’s state-independent consumption and γ2 is 2’s stateindependent continuation. Denote by σ ∗ the strategy proﬁle that gives player 2 consumption c2∗ in the current period and after every consistent history and otherwise prescribes the stage-game Nash equilibrium. By construction, (6.3.4) and (6.3.5) are satisﬁed, with γ2∗ = u(c2 ). Because the utility function is concave,

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player 1’s payoff in this newly constructed strategy proﬁle is larger than in the equilibrium under consideration, and so (6.3.2) and (6.3.3) are satisﬁed, with γ1∗ = u(1 − c2∗ ). Finally, because (6.3.2)–(6.3.5) are simply the enforceability constraints for this game, we have just shown that {(v, v), (u(1 − c2∗ ), u(c2∗ ))} is self-generating, and so (u(1 − c2∗ ), u(c2∗ )) ∈ E p (recall remark 5.7.1). We thus have an equilibrium that offers player 1 a higher payoff, a contradiction. Hence, the solution to max1 has state-independent consumption, c1 for player 1, and state-independent continuations for player 2, γ2 = v2 (so that u(1 − c1 ) = v2 ). Hence, as before, the set of payoffs {(v, v), (u(c1 ), u(1 − c1 ))} is self-generating, and so (u(c1 ), u(1 − c1 )) ∈ E p . The proﬁle yielding payoffs (u(c1 ), u(1 − c1 )) is clearly a full insurance equilibrium. ■

The conclusion is that in any efﬁcient equilibrium σ , if the incentive constraints do not bind at some ex ante consistent history under σ , then the continuation equilibrium is a full insurance equilibrium. Because this requires full insurance to be consistent with equilibrium, for the discount factors δ < δ ∗ , after every consistent history at least one incentive constraint must bind. Now let us examine the subgame-perfect equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff. A ﬁrst observation is immediate. Lemma Let σ ∗ be a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Then player 1 receives at least as

6.3.4 high a payoff from an equilibrium that speciﬁes consumption (y, ¯ y) after any ex post history in which only state 1 has been realized, and otherwise speciﬁes equilibrium σ ∗ . As a result, the equilibrium maximizing player 1’s payoff must feature nonstationary outcomes, and must begin with (y, ¯ y) after any ex post history which only state 1 has been realized. Proof We ﬁrst note that consumption bundle (y, ¯ y) is incentive compatible in state 1,

because no transfers are made. As a result, the prescription of playing (y, ¯ y) after any ex post history in which only state 1 has been realized, and otherwise playing equilibrium σ ∗ , is itself a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Because there is no subgame-perfect equilibrium in which player 1 earns u(y), ¯ the constructed equilibrium must give at least as high a payoff as σ ∗ , for any equilibrium σ ∗ , and ¯ y) after any must give a strictly higher payoff if σ ∗ does not itself prescribe (y, ex post history in which only state 1 has been realized. ■

The task of maximizing player 1’s payoff now becomes one of ﬁnding that equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff, conditional on endowment 2 having been drawn in the ﬁrst period. Lemma The equilibrium maximizing player 1’s payoff, conditional on state 2 having been

6.3.5 drawn in the ﬁrst period, is the efﬁcient symmetric-payoff stationary-outcome equilibrium σˆ . This result gives us a complete characterization of the equilibrium maximizing player 1’s (and, reversing the roles, player 2’s) equilibrium payoff. Consumption is

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given by (y, ¯ y) as long as state 1 is realized, with the ﬁrst draw of state 2 switching play to the efﬁcient, symmetric-payoff stationary-outcome equilibrium. Proof We begin by noting that the payoffs provided by equilibrium σˆ are the equally

weighted convex combination of two continuation payoffs, one following the draw of state 1 and one following the draw of state 2. In the ﬁrst of these continuation equilibria, the incentive constraint for player 1 binds, ¯ + δv, (1 − δ)u(c1 (1)) + δγ1 (1) = (1 − δ)u(y) whereas in the second the incentive constraint for player 2 binds, (1 − δ)u(1 − c1 (2)) + δγ2 (2) = (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv. Refer to these continuation payoffs as U (σˆ | e(1)) and U (σˆ | e(2)), respectively, where player i draws the relatively high share of the endowment in endowment e(i). Figure 6.3.2 illustrates the payoffs U (σˆ | e(1)) and U (σˆ | e(2)). These constraints ensure that in each case, the player drawing the high endowment earns an ¯ Notice also that expected payoff of (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv ≡ v. (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv = v¯ > u 12 , because otherwise the sufﬁcient conditions hold for a full-insurance equilibrium in which consumption is (1/2, 1/2) after every history, contrary to our hypothesis. Now consider the equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff, conditional on state 2. Because we are maximizing player 1’s payoff, the incentive constraint for player 2 to make a transfer to player 1 in state 2 must bind. Player 2 must then earn a continuation payoff of (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv. One equilibrium delivering such a payoff to player 2 is σˆ . Is there another equilibrium that respects player 2’s incentive constraint and provides player 1 a higher payoff than that which he

u (c2 )

(u ( y ), u ( y ))

U (σˆ | e(2))

(u ( 12 ), u ( 12 ))

v U (σˆ ) U (σˆ | e(1)) v

(u ( y ), u ( y )) u( y) u( y)

v

v

u (c1 )

Figure 6.3.2 Representation of efﬁcient, symmetric-payoff equilibrium payoff U (σˆ ) as the equally likely combination of U (σˆ | e(1)) and U (σˆ | e(2)). The utility v¯ equals (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv.

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earns under σˆ ? If so, then we would have an equilibrium that weakly dominates σˆ , conditional on drawing state 2. Reversing the roles of the players, we could also construct an equilibrium weakly dominating σˆ , conditional on endowment 1 having been drawn. Combining these two, we would ﬁnd a symmetric-payoff equilibrium strictly dominating σˆ , yielding a contradiction. ■

We have thus constructed the equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff and can do similarly for player 2, as a convex combination of an initial segment, in which a consumption binge is supported by fortunate endowment draws, followed by continuation paths of the efﬁcient symmetric-payoff equilibrium. Let σ 1 and σ 2 denote these equilibria. Figure 6.3.3 illustrates. Because U (σ 1 ) = 12 U (σˆ | e(2)) + 12 ((1 − δ)(u(y), ¯ u(y)) + δU (σ 1 )), ¯ u(y)). the payoff vector U (σ 1 ) is a convex combination of U (σˆ | e(2)) and (u(y), Moreover, player 2 earns a payoff of v. This follows from the observation that 2 earns u(y) after any initial history featuring only state 1, and on the ﬁrst draw of state 2 earns a continuation payoff equivalent to receiving u(y) ¯ in the current period and v thereafter. Hence, 2’s payoff equals that of receiving y¯ whenever endowment 2 is drawn and y when endowment 1 is drawn, which is v. Similarly, player 1 earns v in equilibrium σ 2 . This argument can be extended to show that every payoff proﬁle on the efﬁcient frontier consists of an initial segment in which the player drawing the high-income endowment does relatively well, with the ﬁrst switch to the other endowment prompting a switch to σˆ , with a continuation payoff of either U (σˆ | e(1)) or U (σˆ | e(2)), as appropriate. The most extreme version of this initial segment allows the high-income player i to consume his entire endowment (generating equilibrium σ i ), and the least extreme simply begins with the play of σˆ . By varying the transfer made from the

u (c2 )

(u ( y ), u ( y ))

U (σˆ | e(2))

(u ( 12 ), u ( 12 ))

v U (σˆ ) U (σ 2 )

U (σˆ | e(1))

v U (σ 1 )

(u ( y ), u ( y )) u( y) u( y)

v

v

u (c1 )

Figure 6.3.3 Illustration of how equilibria σ 1 and σ 2 , maximizing

player 1’s and player 2’s payoffs, respectively, are constructed as convex combinations of (u(y), ¯ u(y)) and U (σˆ | e(2)) in the case of σ 1 and of (u(y), u(y)) ¯ and U (σˆ | e(1)) in the case of σ 2 .

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219

high-income to the low-income player in this initial segment, we can generate the intervening frontier. To see how the argument works, consider a payoff proﬁle on the efﬁcient frontier in which player 2 earns a payoff v2 larger than v but smaller than U2 (σˆ ). One equilibrium producing a payoff of v2 for player 2 calls for continuation equilibrium σˆ with value U (σˆ | e(2)) on the ﬁrst draw of state 2, with any history in which only state 1 has been drawn prompting a transfer of ε from player 1 to player 2, where ε is calculated so as to give player 2 an expected payoff of v2 .13 Call this equilibrium proﬁle σ . Now let σ be an equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff, subject to player 2 receiving at least v2 . We argue that U1 (σ ) = U1 (σ ). Suppose instead that U1 (σ ) > U1 (σ ). Then equilibrium σ must yield a higher expected continuation payoff for player 1 from histories in which only state 1 has been realized (because σ has the largest payoff for player 1 after state 2 is ﬁrst realized), and hence a lower payoff for player 2. To preserve player 2’s expected payoff of v2 , there must then be some consistent history under σ in which state 2 has been drawn and in which player 2 receives a higher payoff (and hence player 1 a lower payoff ) than under σˆ . This, however, is a contradiction, as the continuation payoff that σ prescribes after the history in question can be replaced by σˆ and payoff U (σˆ | e(2)) without disrupting incentives, thereby increasing both players’ payoffs. This model captures part of the stylized consumption behavior of interest, namely, that current consumption ﬂuctuates in current income more than would be the case if risk could be shared efﬁciently. However, beyond a potential initial segment preceding the ﬁrst change of state, it fails to capture a link between past income and current consumption. The stationarity typiﬁed by σˆ and built into every efﬁcient strategy proﬁle after some initial segment is not completely intuitive. Because the discount factor falls below δ ∗ , complete risk sharing within a period is impossible. However, players face the same expected continuation payoffs at the end of every period. Why not share some of the risk over time by eliciting a somewhat larger transfer from the highincome agent in return for a somewhat lower continuation value? One would expect such a trade-off to appear as a natural feature of the ﬁrst-order conditions used to solve the maximization problem characterizing the efﬁcient solution. The difﬁculty is that the frontier of efﬁcient payoffs is not differentiable at the point U (σˆ ).14 The failure of differentiability sufﬁces to ensure that in no direction is there such a favorable trade-off between current and future risk.

6.3.5 Intertemporal Consumption Sensitivity A richer model (in particular, more possible states) allows links between past income and current consumption to appear. We present an example with three states. We leave many of the details to Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004, chapter 20), who provide an 13. Such an ε exists, because setting ε = 0 produces expected payoff v for player 2, whereas ε = εˆ produces U2 (σˆ ). Notice also that the transfer of ε is incentive compatible for player 1, with deviations punished by reversion to autarky, because the transfer of εˆ is incentive compatible in equilibrium σˆ . 14. The nondifferentiability of the frontier of repeated-game payoffs is demonstrated in Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004, section 20.8.2).

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u2 u (c(2)) u (e(2)) u (c(m)) u (e(m))

u (c (1))

u (e(1)) u1 Figure 6.3.4 The payoff proﬁles for our three-state example and the ﬁrst equilibrium we construct.

analysis of the general case of ﬁnitely many states, ﬁnding properties analogous to those of our three-state example. The three equally likely endowments are e(1), e(m), and e(2), with, as before, ¯ where y¯ ∈ (1/2, 1] and y = 1 − y. ¯ The new endowe(1) = (y, ¯ y), e(2) ≡ (y, y), ment e(m) splits the endowment evenly, e(m) = (1/2, 1/2). Hence, we again have a symmetric model in which player i receives a relatively large endowment in state i. Figure 6.3.4 illustrates these endowments. The most severe punishment available is again an autarkic equilibrium in which no transfers are made, giving each player their minmax value of ¯ + u 12 + u(y) . v = 13 u(y) Incentive constraints are given by the fact that, in state i, player i must receive a payoff at least ¯ + δv. In state m, each player must receive at least v¯ = (1 − δ)u(y) (1 − δ)u 12 + δv. The symmetric-payoff full insurance outcome is straightforward. In state m, no transfers are made (and hence incentive constraints are automatically satisﬁed). In state i, the high-income player i transfers ε∗ = y¯ − 12 to the low-income player. Hence, consumption after every ex post history is (1/2, 1/2). As in the two-state case, if there is any full insurance equilibrium outcome, then the symmetric-payoff full insurance outcome is an equilibrium outcome. If the discount factor is sufﬁciently large, then there also exist other full insurance equilibrium outcomes in which the surplus is split asymmetrically between the two players. We now suppose the discount factor is sufﬁciently large that there exist subgameperfect equilibria that do not simply repeat the autarkic equilibrium but not so large that there are full insurance outcomes. Hence, it must be the case that equilibrium v¯ ≡ (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv > u 12 .

6.3

■

221

Risk Sharing

We examine the efﬁcient, symmetric-payoff equilibrium for this case. We can construct a likely candidate for such an equilibrium by choosing ε to satisfy ¯ (1 − δ)u(y¯ − ε) + δ 13 u(y¯ − ε) + u 12 + u(y + ε) = v. Given our presumption that the discount factor is large enough to support more than the autarky equilibrium but too small to support full insurance, this equation is solved by some ε ∈ (0, ε ∗ ). This equilibrium leaves consumption untouched in state m, while treating states 1 and 2 just as in the two-state case of the previous subsection. We refer to this as equilibrium σ . Figure 6.3.4 illustrates. This equilibrium provides some insurance, but we can provide more. Notice ﬁrst that in state m, there is slack in the incentive constraint of each agent, given by (1 − δ)u 12 + δU (σ ) ≥ (1 − δ)u 12 + δv. 1 ζ, 12 − ζ Now choose some small ζ and let consumption in state m be given 1by 2 + with probability 1/2 (conditional on state m occurring), and by 2 − ζ, 12 + ζ with the complementary probability. The slack in the incentive constraints ensures that this is feasible. The derivative of an agent’s utility, as ζ increases and evaluated at ζ = 0, is signed by u 12 − u 12 = 0. Hence, increasing ζ above 0 has only a second-order effect (a decrease) in expected payoffs. Let us now separate ex ante histories into two categories, category 1 and category 2. A history is in category i if agent i is the most recent one to have drawn a high endowment. Hence, if the last state other than m was state 1, then we have a category 1 history. Now ﬁx ζ > 0, and let the prescription for any ex post history in which the 1 1 + ζ, − ζ if this is a agents ﬁnd themselves in state m prescribe consumption 2 2 category 1 history and consumption 12 − ζ, 12 + ζ if this is a category 2 history. In essence, we are using consumption in state m to reward the last agent who has had a large endowment and transferred part of it to the other agent. This modiﬁcation of proﬁle σ has two effects. We are introducing risk in state m but with a second-order effect on total expected payoffs. However, because we now allocate state m consumption as a function of histories, rather than randomly, this adjustment gives a ﬁrst-order increase in the expected continuation payoff to agent i after a history of category i. This relaxes the incentive constraints facing agents in states 1 and 2. We can thus couple the increase in ζ with an increase in ε, where the latter is calculated to preserve equality in the incentive constraints in states 1 and 2, thereby allowing more insurance in states 1 and 2. The increased volatility of consumption in state m thus buys reduced volatility in states 1 and 2, allowing a ﬁrst-order gain on the latter at a second-order cost on the former. Figure 6.3.5 illustrates the resulting consumption pattern. The remaining task is to calculate optimal values of ζ and ε. For any value of ζ , we choose ε(ζ ) to preserve equality in the incentive constraints in states 1 and 2. The principle here is that insurance is always valuable in states 1 and 2, where income ﬂuctuations are relatively large, and hence we should insure up to the limits imposed by incentive constraints in those states. As ζ increases from 0, this adjustment increases expected payoffs. We can continue increasing ζ , and hence the equilibrium payoffs, until one of two events occurs. First,

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u2 u (c(2)) u (e(2))

u (c(m2 ))

u (e(m))

u (c(m1 ))

u (c(1))

u (e(1)) u1 Figure 6.3.5 Payoff proﬁles for the efﬁcient, symmetric equilibrium. Consumption bundle c(mi ) follows a history in which state m has been drawn, and the last state other than m to be drawn was state i.

the state m incentive constraints may bind. At this point, we have reached the limits of our ability to insure across states m and states 1 and 2, and the optimal value of ζ is that which causes the state m incentive constraints to hold with equality. This gives the consumption pattern illustrated in ﬁgure 6.3.5, with four distinct consumption proﬁles. Second, it may be that the cost of the increased consumption risk in state m overwhelms the gains from increased insurance in states 1 and 2. This will certainly be the case if ζ becomes so large that y¯ − ε(ζ ) =

1 2

+ζ

and y + ε(ζ ) =

1 2

− ζ.

In this last case, the optimal value of ζ is that which satisﬁes these two equalities. We now have a consumption pattern in which volatility in state m consumption matches that of states 1 and 2, and hence there are no further opportunities to smooth risk across states. Then, c(1) = c(m1 ) and c(2) = c(m2 ), and only two consumption bundles arise in equilibrium. Together, these two possibilities ﬁx the value of ζ that gives the efﬁcient symmetric-payoff equilibrium. Notice, however, that this symmetric-payoff equilibrium does not feature stationary outcomes (nor is it strongly symmetric). Current consumption depends on whether the history is in category 1 or category 2, in addition to the realization of the current state. Intuitively, we are now spreading risk across time as well as states within a period, exchanging a relatively large transfer from a high-endowment agent for a relatively lucrative continuation payoff. In terms of consumption dynamics, agents with high endowments in their history are now more likely to have high current consumption.

Part II Games with (Imperfect) Public Monitoring

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7 The Basic Structure of Repeated Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring

The ﬁrst part of the book has focused on games with perfect monitoring. In these games, deviations from the equilibrium path of play can be detected and punished. As we saw, it is then relatively straightforward to provide incentive for players to not myopically optimize (play stage-game best replies). In this chapter, we begin our study of games with imperfect monitoring: games in which players have only noisy information about past play. The link between current actions and future play is now indirect, and in general, deviations cannot be unambiguously detected. However, equilibrium play will affect the distribution of the signals, allowing intertemporal incentives to be created by attaching “punishments” to signals that are especially likely to arise in the event of a deviation. This in turn will allow us to again support behavior in which players do not myopically optimize. Because the direct link between deviations and signals is broken, these punishments may sometimes occur on the equilibrium path. The equilibria we construct will thus involve strategies that are similar in spirit to those we have examined in perfect monitoring games, but signiﬁcantly different in some of their details and implications. Throughout this second part, we maintain the important assumption that any signals of past play, however imprecise and noisy, are invariably observed by all players. This is often stressed by using the phrase imperfect public monitoring to refer to such games. These commonly observed signals allow players to coordinate their actions in a way that is not possible if the signals observed by some players are not observed by others. The latter case, referred to as one of private monitoring, is deferred until chapter 12.

7.1

The Canonical Repeated Game

7.1.1 The Stage Game The speciﬁcation of the stage game follows closely that of perfect monitoring games, allowing for the presence of short-lived players (section 2.7). Players 1, . . . , n are long-lived and players n + 1, . . . , N are short-lived, with player i having a set of pure actions Ai . We explicitly allow n = N , so that there may be no short-lived players. As for perfect monitoring games, we assume each Ai is a compact subset of the Euclidean space Rk for some k. Players choose actions simultaneously. The correspondence mapping any mixed-action proﬁle for the long-lived players to the corresponding set of static Nash equilibria for the short-lived players is denoted 225

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N B : ni=1 (Ai ) ⇒ N i ), with its graph denoted by B ⊂ i=n+1 (A i=1 Ai . If there are no short-lived players, B = ni=1 (Ai ). At the end of the stage game, players observe a public signal y, drawn from a signal space Y . The signal space Y is ﬁnite (except in section 7.5). The probability that the signal y is realized, given the action proﬁle a ∈ A ≡ i Ai , is denoted by ρ(y | a). The function ρ : Y × A → [0, 1] is continuous (so that ex ante payoffs are continuous functions of actions). We have the obvious extension ρ(y | α) to mixed-action proﬁles. We say ρ has full support if ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y and a. We invoke full support only when needed and are explicit when doing so. The players receive no information about opponents’ play beyond the signal y. If players receive payoffs at the end of each period, player i’s payoff after the realization (y, a) is given by u∗i (y, ai ).1 Ex ante stage game payoffs are then given by ui (a) =

u∗i (y, ai )ρ(y | a).

(7.1.1)

y∈Y

For ease of reference, we now list the maintained assumptions on the stage game. Assumption 1. Ai is either ﬁnite or a compact and convex subset of the Euclidean space Rk

7.1.1

for some k. As in part I, we refer to compact and convex action spaces as continuum action spaces. 2. Y is ﬁnite, and, if Ai is a continuum action space, then ρ : Y × A → [0, 1] is continuous. 3. If Ai is a continuum action space, then u∗i : Y × Ai → R is continuous, and ui is quasiconcave in ai .

Remark Pure strategies As for perfect monitoring games (see remark 2.1.1), when the

7.1.1 action spaces are a continuum, we avoid some tedious measurability details by considering only pure strategies. We use αi to both denote pure or mixed strategies in ﬁnite games and pure strategies only in continuum action games. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990) do allow for a continuum of signals but assume A is ﬁnite and restrict attention to pure strategies. We discuss their bangbang result, which requires a continuum of signals, in section 7.5. ◆ 7.1.2 The Repeated Game In the repeated game, the only public information available in period t is the t-period history of public signals, ht ≡ (y 0 , y 1 , . . . , y t−1 ). The set of public histories is t H ≡ ∪∞ t=0 Y ,

where we set Y 0 ≡ ∅. 1. The representation of ex ante stage-game payoffs as the expected value of ex post payoffs is typically made for interpretation and is not needed for any of the results in this chapter and the next ((7.1.1) is only used in lemma 9.4.1 and those results, propositions 9.4.1 and 9.5.1, that depend on it). An alternative (but less common) assumption is to view discounting as reﬂecting the probability of the end of the game (as discussed in section 4.2), with payoffs, a simple sum of stage-game payoffs, awarded at the end of play (so players cannot infer anything from intermediate stage-game payoffs).

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The Canonical Repeated Game

227

A history for a long-lived player i includes both the public history and the history of actions that he has taken, hti ≡ (y 0 , ai0 ; y 1 , ai1 ; . . . ; y t−1 , ait−1 ). The set of histories for player i is t Hi ≡ ∪∞ t=0 (Ai × Y ) . A pure strategy for player i is a mapping from all possible histories into the set of pure actions, σ i : H i → Ai . Amixed strategy is, as usual, a mixture over pure strategies, and a behavior strategy is a mapping σi : Hi → (Ai ). As for perfect-monitoring games, the role of a short-lived player i = n + 1, . . . , N is ﬁlled by a countable sequence of players. We refer simply to a short-lived player i, rather than explicitly referring to the sequence of players. We assume that each short-lived player in period t only observes the public history ht .2 In general, a pure strategy proﬁle does not induce a deterministic outcome path (i.e., an inﬁnite sequence in (A × Y )∞ ), because the public signals may be random. As usual, long-lived players have a common discount factor δ. Following the notation for games with perfect monitoring, the vector of long-lived players’ payoffs from a strategy proﬁle σ is denoted U (σ ). To give a ﬂavor of U (σ ), we write a partial sum for U (σ ) when σ is pure, letting a 0 = σ (∅): Ui (σ ) = (1 − δ)ui (a 0 ) + (1 − δ)δ

ui (σ1 (a10 , y 0 ), . . . , σn (an0 , y 0 ))ρ(y 0 | a 0 ) + · · ·

y 0 ∈Y

Public monitoring games include the following as special cases. 1. Perfect monitoring games. Because we restrict attention to ﬁnite signal spaces (with the exception of section 7.5, which requires A ﬁnite), perfect monitoring games are only immediately covered when A is ﬁnite. In that case, simply set Y = A and ρ(y | a) = 1 if y = a, and 0 otherwise. However, the analysis in this chapter also covers perfect monitoring games with continuum action spaces, given our restriction to pure strategies (see remark 2.1.1).3 2. Games with a nontrivial extensive form. In this case, the signal is the terminal node reached. There is imperfect observability, because only decisions on the path of play are observed. We have already discussed this case in section 5.4 and return to it in section 9.6. 3. Games with noisy monitoring. When the prisoners’ dilemma is interpreted as a partnership game, it is natural to consider an environment where output 2. Although this assumption is natural, the analysis in chapters 7–9 is unchanged when shortlived players observe predecessors’ actions (because the analysis restricts attention to public strategies). 3. While the signal space is a continuum in this case, its cardinality does not present measurability problems because, with pure strategies, all expectations over the signals are trivial, since for any pure action proﬁle only one signal can arise. Compare, for example, the proof of proposition 2.5.1, which restricts attention to pure strategies, and proposition 7.3.1, which does not.

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(the product of the partnership) is a random function of the choices of the partners. Inﬂuential early examples are Radner’s (1985), Rubinstein’s (1979b), and Rubinstein and Yaari’s (1983) repeated principal-agent model with noisy monitoring (discussed in section 11.4.5) and Green and Porter’s (1984) oligopoly with noisy prices (section 11.1). 4. Games of repeated adverse selection. In these games, the moves of players are public information, but moves are taken after players learn some private information. For example, in Athey and Bagwell’s (2001) model of a repeated oligopoly, ﬁrm prices are public, but ﬁrm costs are subject to privately observed i.i.d. shocks. Firm i’s price is a public signal of ﬁrm i’s action, which is the mapping from possible costs into prices. We discuss this in section 11.2. 5. Games with incomplete observability. Games with semi-standard information (Lehrer 1990), where each player’s action space is partitioned and other players only observe the element of the partition containing that action.

7.1.3 Recovering a Recursive Structure: Public Strategies and Perfect Public Equilibria In perfect monitoring games, there is a natural isomorphism between histories and information sets. Consequently, in perfect monitoring games, every history, ht , induces a continuation game that is strategically identical to the original repeated game, and for every strategy σi in the original game, ht induces a well-deﬁned continuation strategy σi |ht . Moreover, any Nash equilibrium induces Nash equilibria on the induced equilibrium outcome path. Unfortunately, none of these observations hold for public monitoring games. Because long-lived players potentially have private information (their own past action choices), a player’s information sets are naturally isomorphic to the set of their own private histories, Hi , not to the set of public histories, H . Thus there is no continuation game induced by any history—a public history is clearly insufﬁcient, and i’s private history will not be known by the other players. There are examples of Nash equilibria in public monitoring games whose continuation play resembles that of a correlated and not Nash equilibrium (see section 10.3). This lack of a recursive structure is a signiﬁcant complication, not just in calculating Nash equilibria but in formulating a tractable notion of sequential rationality.4 A recursive structure does hold, however, on a restricted strategy space. Definition A behavior strategy σi is public if, in every period t, it depends only on the

7.1.1 public history ht ∈ Y t and not on i’s private history: for all hti , hˆ ti ∈ Hi satisfying y τ = yˆ τ for all τ ≤ t − 1, σi (hti ) = σi (hˆ ti ). A behavior strategy σi is private if it is not public. 4. The problem lies not in deﬁning sequential rationality, because the notion of Kreps and Wilson (1982b) is the natural deﬁnition, adjusting for the inﬁnite horizon. Rather, the difﬁculty is in applying the deﬁnition.

7.1

■

The Canonical Repeated Game

229

We can thus take H to be the domain of public strategies. Note that short-lived players are necessarily playing public strategies.5 When all players but i are playing public strategies, player i essentially faces a Markov decision problem with states given by the public histories, and so has a Markov best reply. We consequently have the following result. Lemma If all players other than i are playing a public strategy, then player i has a public

7.1.1 strategy as a best reply. Because the result is obvious, we provide some intuition rather than a proof. Let ∈ Hi be a private history for player i. Player i’s actions before t may well be relevant in determining i’s beliefs over the actions chosen by the other players before t. However, because the other players’ continuation behavior in period t is only a function of the public history ht and not their own past behavior, player i’s expected payoffs are independent of i’s beliefs over the past actions of the other players, and so i has a best reply in public strategies. Note that i need not have a public best reply to a nonpublic strategy proﬁle. We provide some examples in chapter 10 illustrating behavior that is ruled out by restricting attention to public strategies. However, to a large extent the restriction to public strategies is not troubling. First, every pure strategy is realization equivalent to a public pure strategy (lemma 7.1.2). Second, as chapter 9 shows, the folk theorem holds under quite general conditions with public strategies. Finally, for games with a product structure (discussed in section 9.5), the set of equilibrium payoffs is unaffected by the restriction to public strategies (proposition 10.1.1). Restricting attention to public strategy proﬁles, every public history ht induces a continuation game that is strategically identical (in terms of public strategies) to the original repeated public monitoring game, and for any public strategy σi in the original game, ht induces a well-deﬁned continuation public strategy σi |ht . Moreover, any Nash equilibrium in public strategies induces Nash equilibria (in public strategies) on the induced equilibrium outcome path. Two strategies, σi and σˆ i , are realization equivalent if, for all strategies for the other players, σ−i , the distributions over outcomes induced by (σi , σ−i ) and (σˆ i , σ−i ) are the same. hti

Lemma Every pure strategy in a public monitoring game is realization equivalent to a

7.1.2 public pure strategy. Proof Let σi be a pure strategy. Let ai0 = σi (∅) be the ﬁrst-period action. In the sec-

ond period, after the signal y 0 , the action ai1 (y 0 ) ≡ σi (y 0 , ai0 ) = σi (y 0 , σi (∅)) is played. Proceeding recursively, in period t after the public history, ht = (y 0 , y 1 , . . . , y t−1 ) = (ht−1 , y t−1 ), the action ait (ht ) ≡ σi (ht ; ai0 , ai1 (y 0 ), . . . , ait−1 (ht−1 )) is played. Hence, for any public outcome h ∈ Y ∞ , the pure strategy σi

5. This is a consequence of our assumption that a period t short-lived player i only observes ht , the public history. We refer to such public monitoring games as canonical public monitoring games. There is no formal difﬁculty in assuming that a period t short-lived player i knows the choices of previous short-lived player i’s, in which case short-lived players could play private strategies. However, in most situations, one would not expect short-lived players to have such private information.

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puts probability one on the action path (a 0 , a 1 (y 0 ), . . . , a t (ht ), . . .). Consequently, the pure strategy σi is realization equivalent to the public strategy that plays ait (ht ), after the public history ht . ■

For example, let there be two actions available to player 1, T and B, and two signals, y and y . Let strategy σ1 specify T in the ﬁrst period, and then in each period t, specify T if (a t−1 , y t−1 ) ∈ {(T , y ), (B, y )}, and B if (a t−1 , y t−1 ) ∈ {(B, y ), (T , y )}. This is a private strategy. However, it is realization equivalent to a public strategy that plays action T in the ﬁrst period and thereafter plays T after any history with an even number of y signals and B after any history with an odd number of y signals. Remark Automata The recursive structure of public strategies is most clearly seen by

7.1.2 observing that a public strategy proﬁle has an automaton representation very similar to that of strategy proﬁles in perfect monitoring games (discussed in section 2.3): Every public behavior strategy proﬁle can be represented by a set of states W , an initial state w 0 , a decision rule f : W → i (Ai ) associating mixed-action proﬁles with states, and a transition function τ : W × Y → W . As for perfect monitoring games, we extend τ to the domain W × H \{∅} by recursively deﬁning τ (w, ht ) = τ (τ (w, ht−1 ), y t−1 ). A state w ∈ W is accessible from another state w ∈ W if there exists a sequence of public signals such that beginning at w, the automaton transits eventually to w , that is, there exists ht such that w = τ (w, ht ). In contrast, the automaton representation is more complicated for private strategies, requiring a separate automaton for each player (recall remark 2.3.1): Each behavior strategy σi can be represented by a set of states Wi , an initial state wi0 , a decision rule fi : Wi → (Ai ) specifying a distribution over action choices for each state, and a transition function τi : Wi × Ai × Y → Wi . Note that the transitions are potentially private because they depend on the realized action choice, which is not public. It is also sometimes convenient to use mixed rather than behavior strategies when calculating examples with private strategies (see section 10.4.2 for an example). A private mixed strategy can also be represented by an automaton (Wi , wi0 , fi , τi ), where fi : Wi → (Ai ) is the decision rule (as usual), but where transitions are potentially random, that is, τi : Wi × Ai × Y → (Wi ). ◆ Remark Minimal automata An automaton (W , w 0 , τ, f ) is minimal if every state w ∈ W

7.1.3 is accessible from w0 ∈ W and, for every pair of states w, wˆ ∈ W , there exists a ˆ ht )). sequence of signals ht such that for some i, fi (τ (w, ht )) = fi (τ (w, Every public proﬁle has a minimal representing automaton. Moreover, this automaton is essentially unique: Suppose (W , w0 , τ, f ) and (W˜ , w˜ 0 , τ˜ , f˜) are two minimal automata representing the same public strategy proﬁle. Deﬁne a mapping ϕ : W → W˜ as follows: Set ϕ(w 0 ) = w˜ 0 . For wˆ ∈ W \{w 0 }, let ht be a pubˆ = τ˜ (w˜ 0 , ht ). Because lic history reaching wˆ (i.e., wˆ = τ (w 0 , ht )), and set ϕ(w) both automata are minimal and represent the same proﬁle, ϕ does not depend on

7.1

■

The Canonical Repeated Game

231

the choice of public history reaching w. ˆ It is straightforward to verify that ϕ is one˜ y)), and f (w) = f˜(ϕ(w)). to-one and onto. Moreover, τ˜ (w, ˜ y) = ϕ(τ (ϕ −1 (w), ◆ Remark Public correlation If the game has public correlation, the only change in the

7.1.4 automaton representation of public strategy proﬁles is that the initial state is determined by a probability distribution µ0 and the transition function maps into probability distributions over states, that is, τ : W × Y → (W ) (see remark 2.3.3). ◆ Attention in applications is often restricted to strongly symmetric public strategy proﬁles, in which after every history, the same action is chosen by all long-lived players:6 Definition Suppose Ai = Aj for all long-lived i and j . A public proﬁle σ is strongly

7.1.2 symmetric if, for all public histories ht , σi (ht ) = σj (ht ) for all long-lived i and j . Once we restrict attention to public proﬁles, there is an attractive formulation of sequential rationality, because every public history ht does induce a well-deﬁned continuation game (in public strategies). Definition A perfect public equilibrium ( PPE) is a proﬁle of public strategies σ that for any

7.1.3 public history ht , speciﬁes a Nash equilibrium for the repeated game, that is, for all t and all ht ∈ Y t , σ |ht is a Nash equilibrium. A PPE is strict if each player strictly prefers his equilibrium strategy to every other public strategy. When the public monitoring has full support, that is, ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y and a, every public history arises with positive probability, and so every Nash equilibrium in public strategies is a PPE. We denote the set of PPE payoff vectors of the long-lived players by E (δ) ⊂ Rn . The one-shot deviation principle plays as useful a role here as it does for subgameperfect equilibria in perfect monitoring games. A one-shot deviation for player i from the public strategy σi is a strategy σˆ i = σi with the property that there exists a unique public history h˜ t ∈ Y t such that for all hτ = h˜ t , σi (hτ ) = σˆ i (hτ ). The proofs of the next two propositions are straightforward modiﬁcations of their perfect-monitoring analogs (propositions 2.2.1 and 2.4.1), and so are omitted. Proposition The one-shot deviation principle A public strategy proﬁle σ is a PPE if and

7.1.1 only if there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations, that is, if and only if for all public histories ht ∈ Y t , σ (ht ) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs 6. Because it imposes no restriction on short-lived players’ behavior, the concept of strong symmetry is most useful in games without short-lived players. Section 11.2.6 presents a strongly symmetric equilibrium of a game with short-lived players that is most naturally described as asymmetric.

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gi (a) =

(1 − δ)ui (a) + δ

y∈Y

Ui (σ |ht ,y )ρ(y | a), for i = 1, . . . , n, for i = n + 1, . . . , N.

ui (a),

Proposition Suppose the public strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ),

7.1.2 and let Vi (w) be the long-lived player i’s average discounted value from play that begins in state w. The strategy proﬁle σ is a PPE if and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from w0 , f (w) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs giw (a)

=

(1 − δ)ui (a) + δ

y∈Y

Vi (τ (w, y))ρ(y | a), for i = 1, . . . , n, for i = n + 1, . . . , N.

ui (a),

(7.1.2)

Equivalently, σ is a PPE if and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from w 0 , f (w) ∈ B and (f1 (w), . . . , fn (w)) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs (g1w , . . . , gnw ), where giw (·, fn+1 (w), . . . , fN (w)) : ni=1 Ai → R, for i = 1, . . . , n, is given by (7.1.2). We also have a simple characterization of strict PPE under full-support public monitoring: Because every public history is realized with positive probability, strictness of a PPE is equivalent to the strictness of the induced Nash equilibria of the normal form games of propositions 7.1.1 and 7.1.2. Corollary Suppose ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y ∈ Y and a ∈ A. The proﬁle σ is a strict PPE if

7.1.1 and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from w 0 , f (w) is a strict Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs g w . Clearly, strict PPE must be in pure strategies, and so we can deﬁne: Definition Suppose ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y ∈ Y and a ∈ A. A pure public strategy proﬁle

7.1.4 described by the automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ) is a uniformly strict PPE if and only if there exists υ > 0 such that for all w ∈ W accessible from w 0 , for all i, giw (f (w)) ≥ giw (ai , f−i (w)) + υ,

ai = fi (w),

where g w is deﬁned by (7.1.2).

7.2

A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

This section illustrates some key issues that arise in games of imperfect monitoring. We again study the repeated prisoners’ dilemma. The imperfect monitoring is captured by two signals y¯ and y, whose distribution is given by p, ρ(y¯ | a) = q, r,

if a = EE, if a = SE or ES, if a = SS,

(7.2.1)

7.2

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233

A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

y

y

E

E

(3−p−2q) (p−q)

− (p+2q) (p−q)

E

2, 2

S

3(1−r) (q−r)

3r − (q−r)

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 7.2.1 The left matrix describes the ex post payoffs for the prisoners’ dilemma with the public monitoring of (7.2.1). The implied ex ante payoff matrix is on the right and agrees with ﬁgure 1.2.1.

where 0 < q < p < 1 and 0 < r < p. If we interpret the prisoners’ dilemma as a partnership game, then the effort choices of the players stochastically determine whether output is high (y) ¯ or low (y). High output, the “good” signal, has a higher probability when both players exert effort. Output thus provides some noisy information about whether both players exerted effort and may or may not provide information distinguishing the three stage-game outcomes in which at least one player shirks (depending on q and r). The ex post payoffs and implied ex ante payoffs (that agree with the payoffs from ﬁgure 1.2.1) are in ﬁgure 7.2.1. In conducting comparative statics with respect to the monitoring distribution, we ﬁx the ex ante payoffs and so are implicitly adjusting the ex post payoffs as well as the monitoring distribution. Although it is more natural for ex post payoffs to be ﬁxed, with changes in monitoring reﬂected in changes in ex ante payoffs, ﬁxing ex ante payoffs signiﬁcantly simpliﬁes calculations (without altering the substance of the results).

7.2.1 Punishments Happen As with perfect monitoring games, any strategy proﬁle prescribing a stage-game Nash equilibrium in each period, independent of history, constitutes a PPE of the repeated game of imperfect monitoring. In this case, players can simply ignore any signals they see, secure in the knowledge that every player is choosing a best response in every period. In the prisoners’ dilemma, this implies that both shirk in every period. Equilibria in which players exert effort require intertemporal incentives, and a central feature of such incentives is that some realizations of the signal must be followed by low continuation values. As such, they have the ﬂavor of punishments, but unlike the case with perfect monitoring, these low continuation values need not arise from a deviation. As will become clear, they are needed to provide appropriate incentives for players to exert effort. One of the simplest proﬁles in which signals matter calls for the players to exert effort in the ﬁrst period and continue to exert effort until the ﬁrst realization of low output y, after which players shirk forever. We refer to this proﬁle as grim trigger because of its similarity to its perfect monitoring namesake. This strategy has a simple representation as a two-state automaton. The state-space is W = {wEE , wSS }, initial state wEE , output function

234

Chapter 7

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Imperfect Public Monitoring

y

y, y

y wSS

wEE

w0 Figure 7.2.2 The grim trigger automaton for the prisoners’ dilemma with public monitoring.

f (wEE ) = EE, and and transition function

f (wSS ) = SS,

τ (w, y) =

¯ wEE , if w = wEE and y = y, wSS , otherwise,

where y is the previous-period signal. The automaton is illustrated in ﬁgure 7.2.2. We associate with each state a value describing the expected payoff when play begins in the state in question. The value function is given by (omitting subscripts, because the setting is symmetric) V (wEE ) = (1 − δ)2 + δ{pV (wEE ) + (1 − p)V (wSS )} and V (wSS ) = (1 − δ) × 0 + δV (wSS ). We immediately have V (wSS ) = 0, so that V (wEE ) =

2(1 − δ) . 1 − δp

(7.2.2)

The strategies will be an equilibrium if and only if in each state, the prescribed actions constitute a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game induced by the current payoffs and continuation values (proposition 7.1.2). Hence, the conditions for equilibrium are V (wEE ) ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ{qV (wEE ) + (1 − q)V (wSS )}

(7.2.3)

and V (wSS ) ≥ (1 − δ)(−1) + δV (wSS ). It is clear that the incentive constraint for defecting in state wSS is trivially satisﬁed, because the state wSS is absorbing. The incentive constraint in the state wEE can be rewritten as 3(1 − δ) , V (wEE ) ≥ 1 − δq

7.2

■

A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

235

or using (7.2.2) to substitute for V (wEE ), 2(1 − δ) 3(1 − δ) ≥ , 1 − δp 1 − δq that is, δ(3p − 2q) ≥ 1.

(7.2.4)

If y¯ is a sufﬁciently good signal that both players had exerted effort, in the sense that p>

1 3

+ 23 q,

(7.2.5)

so that 3p − 2q > 1, then grim trigger is an equilibrium, provided the players are sufﬁciently patient. For δ sufﬁciently large (and p > 13 + 23 q), (7.2.3) holds strictly, in which case the equilibrium is strict (in the sense of deﬁnition 7.1.3). If the incentive constraint (7.2.3) holds, then the value of the equilibrium is given by (7.2.2). Notice that as p approaches 1, so that the action proﬁle EE virtually guarantees the signal y, ¯ the equilibrium value approaches 2, the perfect monitoring value. Moreover, if p = 1 and q = 0 (so that y¯ is a perfect signal of effort when the opponent exerts effort), grim trigger here looks very much like grim trigger in the game with perfect monitoring, and (7.2.4) is equivalent to the bound δ ≥ 1/3 obtained in example 2.4.1. As in the case of perfect monitoring, we conclude that grim trigger is an equilibrium strategy proﬁle if the players are sufﬁciently patient. However, there is an important difference. Players are initially willing to exert effort under the grim trigger proﬁle in the presence of imperfect monitoring because shirking triggers the transition to the absorbing state wSS with too high a probability. Unlike the perfect monitoring case, playing EE does not guarantee that wSS will not be reached. Players receive positive payoffs in this equilibrium only from the initial segment of periods in which both exert effort, before the inevitable and irreversible switch to mutual shirking. The timing of this switch is independent of the discount factor. As a result, as the players become more patient and the importance of the initial periods declines, so does their expected payoff (because V (wEE ) → 0 = V (wSS ) as δ → 1 from (7.2.2)). This proﬁle illustrates the interaction between continuation values in their role of providing incentives (where a low continuation value after certain signals, such as y, strengthens incentives) and the contribution such values make to current values. As players become patient, the myopic incentive to deviate to the stage-game best reply is reduced, but at the same time, the impact of the low continuation values may be increased (we return to this issue in remark 7.2.1). 7.2.2 Forgiving Strategies We now consider a proﬁle that provides incentives to exert effort without the use of an absorbing state. Players exert effort after the signal y¯ and shirk after the signal y, and exert effort in the ﬁrst period. The two-state automaton representing this proﬁle

236

Chapter 7

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Imperfect Public Monitoring

y

y

y wSS

wEE

w

0

y

Figure 7.2.3 A simple proﬁle with one-period memory.

has the same state space, initial state, and output function as grim trigger. Only the transition function differs from the previous example. It is given by ¯ wEE , if y = y, τ (w, y) = wSS , if y = y, where y is the previous period signal. The automaton is illustrated in ﬁgure 7.2.3. We can think of the players as rewarding good signals and punishing bad ones. In this proﬁle, punishments are attached to bad signals even though players may know these ¯ signals represent no shirking (such as y following y). The values in each state are given by V (wEE ) = (1 − δ)2 + δ{pV (wEE ) + (1 − p)V (wSS )}

(7.2.6)

V (wSS ) = (1 − δ) × 0 + δ{rV (wEE ) + (1 − r)V (wSS )}.

(7.2.7)

and

Solving (7.2.6)–(7.2.7), ! " ! "−1 ! " V (wEE ) 2 1 − δp −δ(1 − p) = (1 − δ) −δr 1 − δ(1 − r) V (wSS ) 0 ! " 1 2(1 − δ(1 − r)) = . 2δr 1 − δ(p − r)

(7.2.8)

Notice that V (wEE ) and V (wSS ) are both independent of q, because q identiﬁes the signal distribution induced by proﬁles SE and ES, which do not arise in equilibrium. We again have limp→1 V (wEE ) = 2, so that we approach the perfect monitoring value as the signals in state EE become arbitrarily precise. For any speciﬁcation of the parameters, we have 2(1 − δ(1 − r)) 2(1 − δ) < , 1 − δp 1 − δ(p − r) and hence the forgiving strategy of this section yields a higher payoff than the grim trigger strategy of the previous example. As with grim trigger, the strategies will be an equilibrium if and only if in each state, the prescribed actions constitute a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game induced

7.2

■

237

A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

by the current payoffs and continuation values. Hence, the proﬁle is an equilibrium if and only if V (wEE ) ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ{qV (wEE ) + (1 − q)V (wSS )}

(7.2.9)

and V (wSS ) ≥ (1 − δ)(−1) + δ{qV (wEE ) + (1 − q)V (wSS )}. Using (7.2.6) to substitute for the equilibrium value V (wEE ) of state wEE , the incentive constraint (7.2.9) can be rewritten as (1 − δ)2 + δ{pV (wEE ) + (1 − p)V (wSS )} ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ{qV (wEE ) + (1 − q)V (wSS )}, which simpliﬁes to δ(p − q){V (wEE ) − V (wSS )} ≥ (1 − δ).

(7.2.10)

From (7.2.8), V (wEE ) − V (wSS ) =

2(1 − δ) . 1 − δ(p − r)

(7.2.11)

From (7.2.10), the incentive constraint for state wEE requires 2δ(p − q) ≥ 1 − δ(p − r) or δ≥

1 . 3p − 2q − r

(7.2.12)

A similar calculation for the incentive constraint in state wSS yields (1 − δ) ≥ δ(q − r){V (wEE ) − V (wSS )}, and substituting from (7.2.11) gives δ≤

1 . p + 2q − 3r

(7.2.13)

Conditions (7.2.12) and (7.2.13) are in tension: For the wEE incentive constraint to be satisﬁed, players must be sufﬁciently patient (δ is sufﬁciently large) and the signals sufﬁciently informative (p − q is sufﬁciently large). This ensures that the myopic incentive to play S is less than the continuation reward from the more favorable distribution induced by EE rather than that induced by SE. At the same time, for the wSS incentive constraint to be satisﬁed, players must not be too patient (δ is not too large) relative to the signals. This ensures that the myopic cost from playing E is more than

238

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Imperfect Public Monitoring

the continuation reward from the more favorable distribution induced by ES rather than that induced by SS. Conditions (7.2.12) and (7.2.13) are consistent as long as p ≥ 2q − r. Moreover, (7.2.13) is trivially satisﬁed if q is sufﬁciently close to r.7 When (7.2.12) and (7.2.13) are satisﬁed, the one-period memory proﬁle supports effort as an equilibrium choice in a period by “promising” players a low continuation after y, which occurs with higher probability after shirking. It is worth emphasizing that the speciﬁcation of S after y is not a punishment of a player for having deviated or shirked. For example, in period 0, under the proﬁle, both players play E. Nonetheless, the players shirk in the next period after observing y. However, if the proﬁle did not specify such a negative repercussion from generating bad signals, players have no incentive to exert effort. The role of SS after y is analogous to that of the deductible in an insurance policy, which encourages due care. It is also worth observing, that when (7.2.12) and (7.2.13) hold strictly, then the PPE is strict: Each player ﬁnds E a strict best reply after y¯ and S a strict best reply after y. In this sense, history is coordinating continuation play (as it commonly does in equilibria of perfect-monitoring games). Remark Patient incentives Suppose q is sufﬁciently close to r that the upper bound on δ,

7.2.1 (7.2.13), is satisﬁed for all δ. Then, the proﬁle of ﬁgure 7.2.3 is a strict PPE for all δ satisfying (7.2.12) strictly. The outcome path produced by these strategies can be described by a Markov chain on the state space {wEE , wSS }, with transition matrix wSS wEE wEE p 1−p r 1 − r. wSS The process is ergodic and the stationary distribution puts probability r/(1 − p + r) on EE and (1 − p)/(1 − p + r) on SS.8 Because p < 1, some shirking must occur in equilibrium. When starting in state wEE , the current payoff is thus higher than the equilibrium payoff, and increasing the discount factor only makes the relatively low-payoff future more important, decreasing the expected payoff from the game. When in state wSS , the current payoff is relatively low, and putting more weight on the future increases expected payoffs. The myopic incentive to play a stage-game best reply becomes small as players become patient. At the same time, as in grim trigger and many other strategy proﬁles,9 the size of the penalty from a disadvantageous signal (V (wEE ) − V (wSS )) also becomes smaller. In the limit, as the players get arbitrarily patient, expected 7. Note that q = r is inconsistent with the assumption that the stage game payoff u1 (a) is the expectation of ex post payoffs (7.1.1), because q = r would imply u1 (SE) = u1 (SS) (see also ﬁgure 7.2.1). A similar comment applies if p = q. We assume q = r or p = q in some examples to ease calculations; the conclusions hold for q − r or p − q close to 0. 8. For grim trigger, the transition matrix effectively has r = 0, so the stationary distribution in that case puts probability one on wSS . 9. More speciﬁcally, this claim holds for proﬁles that are connected, that is, proﬁles with the property that there is a common ﬁnite sequence of signals taking any state into a common state (lemma 13.5.1). We discuss this issue in some detail in section 13.5.

7.2

■

239

A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

payoffs are independent of the initial states. For a ﬁxed signal distribution given by p and r, we have lim V (wEE ) = lim V (wSS ) =

δ→1

δ→1

2r . 1−p+r ◆

7.2.3 Strongly Symmetric Behavior Implies Inefficiency We now investigate the most efﬁcient symmetric pure strategy equilibria that the players can support under imperfect monitoring. More precisely, we focus on strongly symmetric pure-strategy equilibria, equilibria in which after every history, the same action is chosen by both players (deﬁnition 7.1.2). It turns out that efﬁciency cannot typically be attained with a strongly symmetric equilibrium under imperfect monitoring (see proposition 8.2.1). Moreover, for this example, if 2p − q < 1 and q > 2r, the best strongly symmetric PPE payoff is strictly smaller than the best symmetric PPE payoff, which is achieved using SE and ES (see remark 7.7.2 and section 8.4.3). As we have seen, imperfect monitoring ensures that punishments will occur along the equilibrium path, whereas symmetry ensures that these punishments reduce the payoffs of both players, precluding efﬁciency. We will subsequently see that asymmetric strategies, in which one player is punished while the other is rewarded, play a crucial role in achieving nearly efﬁcient payoffs. At the same time, it will be important that the monitoring is sufﬁciently “rich” to allow this differential treatment (we return to this issue for this example in section 8.4.3 and in general in chapter 9). We assume here that players can publicly correlate (leaving to section 7.7.1 the analysis without public correlation). As we will see, it sufﬁces to consider strategies implemented by automata with two states, so that W = {wEE , wSS } with f (wEE ) = EE and f (wSS ) = SS. Letting τ (w, y) be the probability of a transition to state wEE , given ¯ y}, calculating the maximum that the current state w ∈ {wEE , wSS } and signal y ∈ {y, payoff from a symmetric equilibrium with public correlation is equivalent to ﬁnding the largest φ for which the following transition function supports an equilibrium: ¯ 1, if w = wEE and y = y, τ (w, y) = φ, if w = wEE and y = y, 0, if w = w . SS

These strategies make use of a public correlating device, because the players perfectly correlate the random movement to state wSS that follows the bad signal. The automaton is illustrated in ﬁgure 7.2.4. The most efﬁcient symmetric outcome is permanent EE, yielding both players a payoff of 2. The imperfection in monitoring precludes this outcome from being an equilibrium outcome. The “punishment” state of wSS is the worst possible state and plays a similar role here as in grim trigger of section 7.2.1, which is captured by φ = 0. For large δ, the incentive constraint in state wEE when φ = 0 (described by (7.2.3)) holds strictly, indicating that the continuation value after y can be slightly increased without disrupting the incentives players have to play E. Moreover, by increasing

240

Chapter 7

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Imperfect Public Monitoring

y

(φ ) wEE

y

(1 − φ )

y, y wSS

w0 Figure 7.2.4 The grim trigger proﬁle with public correlation. With

probability φ play remains in wEE after a bad signal, and with probability 1 − φ, play transits to the absorbing state wSS .

that continuation valuation, the value in the previous period has been increased. By appropriately choosing φ, we can maximize the symmetric payoff while still just satisfying the incentive constraint.10 The value V (wSS ) in state wSS equals 0, reﬂecting the fact that state wSS corresponds to permanent shirking. The value for state wEE is given by V (wEE ) = (1 − δ)2 + δ{pV (wEE ) + (1 − p)(φV (wEE ) + (1 − φ)V (wSS ))} = (1 − δ)2 + δ(p + (1 − p)φ)V (wEE ), and solving, V (wEE ) =

2(1 − δ) . 1 − δ(p + (1 − p)φ)

(7.2.14)

Incentives for equilibrium behavior in state wSS are trivial because play then consists of a stage-game Nash equilibrium in every subsequent period. Turning to state wEE , the incentive constraint is (using V (wSS ) = 0): V (wEE ) ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ(q + (1 − q)φ)V (wEE ). As explained, we need the largest value of φ for which this constraint holds. Clearly, such a value must cause the constraint to hold with equality, leading us to solve for V (wEE ) =

3(1 − δ) . 1 − δ(q + (1 − q)φ)

Making the substitution for V (wEE ) from (7.2.14), and solving, φ=

δ(3p − 2q) − 1 . δ(3p − 2q − 1)

(7.2.15)

This expression is nonnegative as long as11 δ(3p − 2q) ≥ 1.

(7.2.16)

Once again, equilibrium requires that players be sufﬁciently patient and that p and q not be too close. It is also worth noting that this condition is the same as (7.2.4), the 10. It is an implication of proposition 7.5.1 that this bang-bang behavior yields the most efﬁcient symmetric pure strategy proﬁle. 11. The expression could also be positive if both numerator and denominator are negative, but then it necessarily exceeds 1, a contradiction.

7.3

■

241

Decomposability and Self-Generation

lower bound ensuring grim trigger is an equilibrium. If (7.2.16) fails, then even making the punishment as severe as possible, by setting φ = 0, does not create sufﬁciently strong incentives to deter shirking. Conditional on being positive, the expression for φ will necessarily be less than 1. This is simply the observation that one can never create incentives for effort by setting φ = 1, and hence dispensing with all threat of punishment. A value of δ < 1 will exist satisfying inequality (7.2.16) as long as p>

1 3

+ 23 q.

This is (7.2.5) (the necessary condition for grim trigger to be a PPE) and is implied by the necessary condition (7.2.12) for the one-period memory strategy proﬁle of section 7.2.2 to be an equilibrium. If δ = 1/(3p − 2q), then we have φ = 0, and hence grim trigger. In this case, the discount factor is so low as to be just on the boundary of supporting such strategies as an equilibrium, and sufﬁcient incentives can be obtained only by having a bad signal trigger a punishment with certainty. On the other hand, φ → 1 as δ → 1. As the future swamps the present, bad signals need only trigger punishments with an arbitrarily small probability. However, this does not sufﬁce to achieve the efﬁcient outcome. Substituting the value of φ from (7.2.15) in (7.2.14), we ﬁnd, for all δ ∈ (0, 1) satisfying the incentive constraint given by (7.2.16),12 V (wEE ) =

(1 − p) 3p − 2q − 1 =2− < 2. p−q (p − q)

(7.2.17)

Intuitively, punishments can become less likely as the discount factor climbs, but incentives will be preserved only if punishments remain sufﬁciently likely that the expected value of the game following a bad signal falls sufﬁciently short of the expected value following a good signal. Because bad signals occur with positive probability along the equilibrium path, this sufﬁces to bound payoffs away from their efﬁcient levels. It is intuitive that the upper bound for the symmetric equilibrium payoff with public correlation is also an upper bound without public correlation. We will argue in section 7.7.1 that the bound of (7.2.17) is in fact tight (even in the absence of public correlation) for large δ.

7.3

Decomposability and Self-Generation

In this section, we describe a general method (introduced by Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti 1990) for characterizing E (δ), the set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs. We have already seen a preview of this work in section 2.5.1. The essence of this approach is to view a PPE as describing after each history the speciﬁed action to be taken after the history and continuation promises. The continuation promises are themselves of course required to be equilibrium values. The recursive properties of PPE described in section 7.1.3 provide the necessary structure for this approach. 12. Notice that the maximum payoff is independent of δ, once δ is large enough to provide the required incentives.

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Imperfect Public Monitoring

The ﬁrst two deﬁnitions are the public monitoring versions of the notions in sec tion 2.5.1. Recall that B ⊂ N i=1 (Ai ) is the set of feasible action proﬁles when players i = n + 1, . . . , N are short-lived. If n = N (there are no short-lived players), then B = ni=1 (Ai ). Definition For any W ⊂ Rn , a mixed action proﬁle α ∈ B is enforceable on W if there exists

7.3.1 a mapping γ : Y → W such that, for all i = 1, . . . , n, and ai ∈ Ai , Vi (α, γ ) ≡ (1 − δ)ui (α) + δ

γi (y)ρ(y | α)

y∈Y

≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , α−i ) + δ

γi (y)ρ(y | ai , α−i ).

(7.3.1)

y∈Y

The function γ enforces α (on W ). Remark Hidden short-lived players The incentive constraints on the short-lived players

7.3.1 are completely captured by the requirement that the action proﬁle be an element of B. We often treat u(α) as the vector of stage-game payoffs for the long-lived players, that is, u(α) = (u1 (α), . . . , un (α)), rather than the vector of payoffs for all players—the appropriate interpretation should be clear from context. ◆ Notice that the function V, introduced in deﬁnition 7.3.1, is continuous. Figure 7.3.1 illustrates the relationship between u(α), γ , and V(α, γ ). We interpret the function γ as describing expected payoffs from future play (“continuation promises”) as a function of the public signal y. Enforceability is then essentially an incentive compatibility requirement. The proﬁle α is enforceable if it is optimal for each player to choose α, given some γ describing the implications of current signals for future payoffs. Phrased differently, the proﬁle α is enforceable if it is a Nash equilibrium of the one-shot game g γ (a) ≡ (1 − δ)u(a) + δE[γ (y) | a] (compare with proposition 7.1.2 and the discussion just before proposition 2.4.1).

Figure 7.3.1 The relationship between u(α), γ , and V(α, γ ). There are three

public signals, Y = {y1 , y2 , y3 }, and E[γ (y) | a] = γ (y )ρ(y | a). Because V(a, γ ) = (1 − δ)u(a) + δE[γ (y) | a], the distance from V(a, γ ) to E[γ | a] is of order 1 − δ.

7.3

■

Decomposability and Self-Generation

243

Definition A payoff vector v ∈ Rn is decomposable on W if there exists a mixed action proﬁle

7.3.2 α ∈ B, enforced by γ on W , such that

vi = Vi (α, γ ). The payoff v is decomposed by the pair (α, γ ) (on W ). It will be convenient to identify for any set W , the set of payoffs that can be decomposed on W , as well as to have a function that identiﬁes the action proﬁle and associated enforcing γ decomposing any value in that set. When there are several enforceable proﬁles and enforcing promises for any decomposable payoff, the selection can be arbitrary. Definition For all W ⊂ Rn , let B(W ) ≡ {v ∈ Rn : v = V (α, γ ) for some α enforced by γ

7.3.3 on W }, and deﬁne the pair Q : B(W ) → B and U : B(W ) → W Y so that Q(v) is enforced by U(v) on W and V(Q(v), U(v)) = v. A payoff v ∈ B(W ) is decomposed by (Q(v), U(v)). We can think of B(W ) as the set of equilibrium payoffs (for the long-lived players), given that W is the set of continuation equilibrium payoffs. In particular, B(W ) contains any payoff vector that can be obtained from (decomposed) using an enforceable choice α in the current period and with the link γ between current signals and future equilibrium payoffs. Although B(W ) depends on δ, we only make that dependence explicit when necessary, writing B(W ; δ). If B(W ) is the set of payoffs that one can support given the set W of continuation payoffs, then a set W for which W ⊂ B(W ) should be of special interest. We have already seen in proposition 2.5.1 and remark 2.5.1 (where ∪a∈A Ba (W ) is the pure-action version of B(W )) that a similar property is sufﬁcient for the payoffs to be pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs in games with perfect monitoring. Because the structure of the game is stationary (for public strategies), the set of equilibrium payoffs and equilibrium continuation payoffs coincide. The function B plays an important role in the investigation of equilibria of the repeated game and is commonly referred to as the generating function for the game. We ﬁrst need the critical notion of self-generation: Definition A set of payoffs W ⊂ Rn is self-generating if W ⊂ B(W ).

7.3.4 Our interest in self-generation is due to the following result (compare with proposition 2.5.1). Proposition Self-generation For any bounded set W ⊂ Rn , if W is self-generating, B(W ) ⊂

7.3.1 E (δ) (and hence W ⊂ E (δ)). Note that no explicit feasibility restrictions are imposed on W (in fact, no restrictions are placed on the set W beyond boundedness).13 As a result, one would think that by 13. The space Rn is trivially self-generating. To generate an arbitrary payoff v ∈ Rn , one need only couple the current play of a Nash equilibrium of the stage game (thus ensuring enforceability),

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choosing a sufﬁciently large set W , payoffs infeasible in the repeated game could be generated. The discipline is imposed by the fact that W must be capable of generating a superset of itself. Coupled with discounting, the assumption that W is bounded and the requirement that the ﬁrst period’s payoffs be given by u(α) for some α ∈ B excludes infeasible payoffs. As in the proof of proposition 2.5.1, the idea is to view B(W ) as the set of states for an automaton, to which we apply proposition 7.1.2. Decomposability allows us to associate an action proﬁle and a transition function describing continuation values to each payoff proﬁle in B(W ). Note that although vectors of continuations for the long-lived players are states for the automaton, the output function speciﬁes actions for both long- and short-lived players. Remark Equilibrium behavior Though self-generation naturally directs attention to the

7.3.2 set of equilibrium payoffs, the proof of proposition 7.3.1 constructs an equilibrium proﬁle. In the course of this construction, however, one often has multiple choices for the decomposing actions and continuations (i.e., Q and U are selections). The resulting equilibrium can depend importantly on the choices one makes. Remark 7.7.1 discusses an example, including proﬁles with Nash reversion and with bounded recall. Chapter 13 gives one reason why this difference is important, showing that proﬁles with permanent punishments are often not robust to the introduction of private monitoring, whereas proﬁles with bounded recall always are. ◆ Proof For v ∈ B(W ), we construct an automaton yielding the payoff vector v and satis-

fying the condition in proposition 7.1.2, so that the implied strategy proﬁle σ is a PPE. Consider the collection of automata {(B(W ), v, f, τ ) : v ∈ B(W )}, where the common set of states is given by B(W ), the common decision function by f (v) = Q(v) for all v ∈ B(W ), and the common transition function by τ (v, y) = U(v)(y) for all y ∈ Y (recall that for U(v) ∈ W Y , so that U(v)(y) ∈ W ). Because W is self-generating, the decision and transition functions are well deﬁned for all v ∈ B(W ). These automata differ only in their initial state v ∈ B(W ). We need to show that for each v ∈ B(W ), the automaton (B(W ), v, f, τ ) describes a PPE with payoff v. This will be an implication of proposition 7.1.2 and the decomposability of v on W , once we have shown that vi = Vi (v),

i = 1, . . . , n,

where Vi (v) is the value to long-lived player i of being in state v. For any v ∈ B(W ), we recursively deﬁne the implied sequence of continut t 0 t t−1 , y t−1 ) = ations {γ t }∞ t=0 , where γ : Y → W , by setting γ = v and γ (h with payoff proﬁle v N , with the function γ (y) = v for all y, where (1 − δ)v N + δv = v. Of course, the unboundedness of the reals plays a key role in this construction.

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Decomposability and Self-Generation

U(γ t−1 (ht−1 ))(y t−1 ). Let σ be the public strategy proﬁle described by the automaton (B(W ), γ 0 , f, τ ), so that σ (∅) = Q(γ 0 ), and for any history, ht , σ (ht ) = Q(γ t (ht )). Then, by construction, v = V(Q(v), U(v)) = V(σ (∅), U(v)) γ 1 (y 0 )ρ(y 0 | σ (∅)) = (1 − δ)u(σ (∅)) + δ y 0 ∈Y

= (1 − δ)u(σ (∅)) + δ

y 0 ∈Y

(1 − δ)u(σ (y 0 ))

+δ

y 1 ∈Y

= (1 − δ)

t−1 s=0

δs

γ 2 (y 0 , y 1 )ρ(y 1 | σ (y 0 )) ρ(y 0 | σ (∅))

u(σ (hs )) Pr σ (hs ) + δ t

hs ∈Y s

γ t (ht ) Pr σ (ht ),

ht ∈Y t

where Pr σ (hs ) is the probability that the sequence of public signals hs arises t t t under σ . Because γ t (ht ) ∈ W and W is bounded, ht ∈Y t γ (h ) Pr σ (h ) is bounded. Taking t → ∞ yields v = (1 − δ)

∞ s=0

δs

u(σ (hs )) Pr σ (hs ),

hs ∈Y s

and so the value of σ is v. Hence, for all v ∈ W and the automaton, (W , v, f, τ ), v = V (v). Let g v : ni=1 Ai → Rn be given by g v (a) = (1 − δ)u(a) + δ

U(v)(y)ρ(y | a)

y∈Y

= (1 − δ)u(a) + δ

V (τ (v, y))ρ(y | a),

y∈Y

where a ∈ A is an action proﬁle with long-lived players’ actions unrestricted and short-lived players’ actions given by (Qn+1 (v), . . . , QN (v)). Because v is enforced by (Q(v), U(v)), Q(v) ∈ B is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game described by the payoff function g v , and so proposition 7.1.2 applies. ■

Proposition 7.3.1 gives us a criterion for identifying subsets of the set of PPE payoffs, because any self-generating set is such a subset. We say that a set of payoffs can be factorized if it is a ﬁxed point of the generating function B. The next proposition indicates that the set of PPE payoffs can be factorized. From proposition 7.3.1, the set of PPE payoffs is the largest such ﬁxed point. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990) refer to the next proposition as factorization.

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Proposition E (δ) = B(E (δ)).

7.3.2 Proof If E (δ) is self-generating (i.e., E (δ) ⊂ B(E (δ))), then (because E (δ) is clearly

bounded, being a subset of F ∗ ) by the previous proposition, B(E (δ)) ⊂ E (δ), and so B(E (δ)) = E (δ). It thus sufﬁces to prove E (δ) ⊂ B(E (δ)). Suppose v ∈ E (δ) and σ is a PPE with value v = U (σ ). Let α ≡ σ (∅) and γ (y) = U (σ |y ). It is enough to show that α is enforced by γ on E (δ) and V(α, γ ) = v. But, V(α, γ ) = (1 − δ)u(α) + δ γ (y)ρ(y | α) y

= (1 − δ)u(α) + δ

U (σ |y )ρ(y | α)

y

= U (σ ) = v. Because σ is a PPE, σ |y is a also a PPE, and so γ : Y → E (δ). Finally, because σ is a PPE, there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations, and so α is enforced by γ on E (δ), and so v ∈ B(E (δ)). ■

Lemma B is a monotone operator, that is, W ⊂ W =⇒ B(W ) ⊂ B(W ).

7.3.1 Proof Suppose v ∈ B(W ). Then, v = V(α, γ ) for some α enforced by γ : Y → W . But

then γ also decomposes v using α on W , and hence v ∈ B(W ).

■

Lemma If W is compact, B(W ) is closed.

7.3.2 Proof Suppose {v k }k is a sequence in B(W ) converging to v, and (α k , γ k ) is the asso-

ciated sequence of enforceable action proﬁles and enforcing continuations, with v k = V(α k , γ k ). Because (α k , γ k ) ∈ i (Ai ) × W Y and i (Ai ) × W Y is compact,14 without loss of generality (taking a subsequence if necessary), we can assume {(α k , γ k )}k is convergent, with limit (α, γ ). The action proﬁle α is clearly enforced by γ with respect to W . Moreover, V(α, γ ) = v and so v ∈ B(W ). ■

The set of feasible payoffs F † is clearly compact. Moreover, every payoff that can be decomposed on the set of feasible payoffs must itself be feasible, that is, B(F † ) ⊂ F † . Because E (δ) is a ﬁxed point of B and B is monotonic, E (δ) ⊂ B m (F † ) ⊂ F † , ∀m. In fact, {B m (F † )}m is a decreasing sequence. Let + † B m (F † ). F∞ ≡ m

14. Continuing our discussion from note 3 on page 227 when Ai is a continuum action space for some i, W Y is not sequentially compact under perfect monitoring. However, we can proceed as in the second part of the proof of proposition 2.5.2 to nonetheless obtain a convergent subsequence.

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247

Decomposability and Self-Generation †

Each B m (F † ) is compact and so F∞ is compact and nonempty (because E (δ) ⊂ Therefore, we have

† F∞ ).

†

E (δ) ⊂ F∞ ⊂ · · · ⊂ B 2 (F † ) ⊂ B(F † ) ⊂ F † .

(7.3.2)

The following proposition implies that the algorithm of iteratively calculating B m (F † ) computes the set of PPE payoffs. See Judd, Yeltekin, and Conklin (2003) for an implementation. †

†

Proposition F∞ is self-generating and so F∞ = E (δ).

7.3.3 †

†

†

Proof We need to show F∞ ⊂ B(F∞ ). For all v ∈ F∞ , v ∈ B m (F † ) for all m, and

so there exists (α m , γ m ) such that v = V(α m , γ m ) and γ m (y) ∈ B m−1 (F † ) for all y ∈ Y . By extracting convergent subsequences if necessary, we can assume the sequence {(α m , γ m )}m converges to a limit (α ∗ , γ ∗ ). It remains to show that α ∗ † † is enforced by γ ∗ on F∞ and v = V(α ∗ , γ ∗ ). We only verify that γ ∗ (y) ∈ F∞ for all y ∈ Y (since the other parts are trivial). Suppose then that there is some † † / F∞ . As F∞ is closed, there is an ε > 0 such that y ∈ Y such that γ ∗ (y) ∈ † B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)) ∩ F∞ = ∅,

where B¯ ε (v) is the closed ball of radius ε centered at v. But, there exists m such that for any m > m , γ m (y) ∈ B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)), which implies B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)) ∩ (∩m≤M B m (F † )) = ∅,

∀M > m .

Thus, the collection {B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y))} ∪ {B m (F † )}∞ m=1 has the ﬁnite intersection property, and so (by the compactness of B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)) ∪ F † ), † B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)) ∩ F∞ = ∅, †

a contradiction. Thus, F∞ is self-generating, and because it is bounded, from † † proposition 7.3.1 F∞ ⊂ E (δ). But from (7.3.2), E (δ) ⊂ F∞ , completing the argument. ■

The proposition immediately implies the compactness of E (δ) (which can also be directly proved along the lines of proposition 2.5.2). Corollary The set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs, E (δ), is compact.

7.3.1 We now turn to the monotonicity of PPE payoffs with respect to the discount factor. Intuitively, as players become more patient, it should be easier to enforce an action proﬁle because myopic incentives to deviate are now less important. Consequently, we should be able to adjust continuation promises so that incentive constraints are still satisﬁed, and yet players’ total payoffs have not been affected by the change in weighting between ﬂow and continuation values. However, as we discussed near the

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end of section 2.5.4, there is a discreteness issue: If the set of available continuations is disconnected, it may not be possible to adjust the continuation value by a sufﬁciently small amount that the incentive constraint is not violated. On the other hand, if continuations can be chosen from a convex set, then the above intuition is valid. In particular, it is often valid for large δ, where the set of available continuations can often be taken to be convex.15 The available continuations are also convex if players use a public correlating device. It will be convenient to denote the set of payoffs that can be decomposed by α on W , when the discount factor is δ, by B(W ; δ, α). Proposition Suppose 0 < δ1 < δ2 < 1, W ⊂ W , and W ⊂ B(W ; δ1 , α) for some α. Then

7.3.4 W ⊂ B(co(W ); δ2 , α). In particular, if W ⊂ W and W ⊂ B(W ; δ1 ), then W ⊂ B(co(W ); δ2 ).

Proof Fix v ∈ W , and suppose v is decomposed by (α, γ ) on W , given δ1 . Then deﬁne:

γ¯ (y) =

δ1 (1 − δ2 ) (δ2 − δ1 ) v+ γ (y), δ2 (1 − δ1 ) δ2 (1 − δ1 )

Because v, γ (y) ∈ W for all y, we have γ¯ (y) ∈ co(W ) for all y. Moreover, γ¯i (y)ρ(y | ai , α−i ) (1 − δ2 )ui (ai , α−i ) + δ2 y

δ1 (1 − δ2 ) (δ2 − δ1 ) v+ γi (y)ρ(y | ai , α−i ) (1 − δ1 ) (1 − δ1 ) y (1 − δ2 ) (δ2 − δ1 ) = v+ γi (y)ρ(y | ai , α−i ) . (1 − δ1 )ui (ai , α−i ) + δ1 (1 − δ1 ) (1 − δ1 ) y

= (1 − δ2 )ui (ai , α−i ) +

Because α is enforced by γ and δ1 with respect to W , it is also enforced by γ¯ with respect to co(W ) and δ2 . Moreover, evaluating the term in {·} at α yields v, and so V (α, γ¯ ; δ2 ) = v. Hence, v ∈ B(co(W ); δ2 , α). ■

Corollary Suppose 0 < δ1 < δ2 < 1, and W ⊂ B(W ; δ1 ). If, in addition, W is bounded and

7.3.2 convex, then W ⊂ E (δ2 ). In particular, if E (δ1 ) is convex, then for any δ2 > δ1 , E (δ1 ) ⊂ E (δ2 ).

Proof W is self-generating, so the result follows from proposition 7.3.1. ■

Remark Pure strategy restriction Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990) restrict attention

7.3.3 to pure strategies but allow for a continuum of signals (see section 7.5). We use a superscript p to denote relevant expressions when we explicitly restrict to pure strategies of the long-lived players (we are already implicitly doing so for continuum action spaces—see remark 7.1.1). In particular, B p (W ) is the set of payoffs that can be decomposed on W using proﬁles in which the long-lived 15. More precisely, for any equilibrium payoff in the interior of E (δ), under a mild condition, the continuations can be chosen from a convex set (proposition 9.1.2).

7.4

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The Impact of Increased Precision

249

players play pure actions, and E p (δ) is the set of PPE payoffs when long-lived players are required to play pure strategies. Clearly, all the results of this section apply under this restriction. In particular, E p (δ) is the largest ﬁxed point of B p (see also remark 2.5.1). With only a slight abuse of language, we call E p (δ) the set of pure-strategy PPE payoffs. We do not require short-lived players to play pure actions, because the static game played by the short-lived players implied by some long-lived player action proﬁles, (a1 , . . . , an ), may not have a pure strategy Nash equilibrium.16 In that event, there is no pure action proﬁle a ∈ B with ai = ai for i = 1, . . . , n. Allowing the short-lived players to randomize guarantees that for all long-lived player action proﬁles, (a1 , . . . , an ), there exists (αn+1 , . . . , αN ) such that (a1 , . . . , an , αn+1 , . . . , αN ) ∈ B. ◆ Proposition 7.3.4 also implies the following important corollary that will play a central role in the next chapter. Definition A set W ⊂ Rn is locally self-generating if for all v ∈ W , there exists δv < 1 and

7.3.5 an open set Uv satisfying v ∈ Uv ∩ W ⊂ B(W ; δv ). Corollary Suppose W ⊂ Rn is compact, convex, and locally self-generating. There exists

7.3.3 δ < 1 such that for δ ∈ (δ , 1),

W ⊂ B(W ; δ) ⊂ E (δ). Proof Because W is compact, the open cover {Uv }v∈W has a ﬁnite subcover. Let δ be

the maximum of the δv ’s on this subcover. Proposition 7.3.4 then implies that for any δ larger than δ , we have W ⊂ E (δ) for δ > δ . ■

7.4

The Impact of Increased Precision

In this section, we present a result, due to Kandori (1992b), showing that improving the precision of the public signals cannot reduce the set of equilibrium payoffs. A natural ranking of the informativeness of the public signals is provided by Blackwell’s (1951) partial ordering of experiments. We can view the realized signal y as the result of an experiment about the underlying space of uncertainty, the space A of pure-action proﬁles. Two different public monitoring distributions (with different signal spaces) can then be viewed as two different experiments. Let R denote the |A| × |Y |-matrix whose ath row corresponds to the probability distribution over Y conditional on the action proﬁle a. We can construct a noisier “experiment” from ρ by assuming that when y is realized under ρ, y is observed with probability 1 − ε and a 16. This requires at least two short-lived players, because a single short-lived player always has a pure best reply.

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uniform draw from Y is observed with probability ε. Denoting this distribution by ρ and the corresponding probability matrix R , we have R = RQ, where (1 − ε) + ε/|Y | ε/|Y | ··· ε/|Y | .. ε/|Y | (1 − ε) + ε/|Y | . . Q= .. .. . . ε/|Y | ε/|Y | ··· ε/|Y | (1 − ε) + ε/|Y | Note that Q is a stochastic matrix, a nonnegative matrix whose rows sum to 1. More generally, we deﬁne Definition The public monitoring distribution (Y , ρ ) is a garbling of (Y, ρ) if there exists a

7.4.1 stochastic matrix Q such that

R = RQ.

Note that there is no requirement that the signal spaces Y and Y bear any particular relationship (in particular, Y may have more or less elements than Y ). The garbling partial order is not strict. For example, if Q is a permutation matrix, then Y is simply a relabeling of Y and ρ and ρ are garblings of each other (the inverse of a stochastic matrix is a stochastic matrix if and only if it is a permutation matrix). It will be convenient to denote the set of payoffs that can be decomposed by α on W , when the discount factor is δ and the public monitoring distribution is ρ, by B(W ; δ, ρ, α). Not surprisingly, the set of payoffs that can be decomposed on W , when the discount factor is δ and the public monitoring distribution is ρ, will be written B(W ; δ, ρ). Proposition Suppose the public monitoring distribution (Y , ρ ) is a garbling of (Y, ρ), and

7.4.1 W ⊂ B(W ; δ, ρ , α) for some α. Then W ⊂ B(co (W ); δ, ρ, α). In particular, if W ⊂ B(W ; δ, ρ ), then W ⊂ B(co(W ); δ, ρ).

For large δ, the set of available continuations can often be taken to be convex (see note 15 on page 248). The available continuations are also convex if players use a public correlating device. Hence, the more precise signal y must give at least as large a set of self-generating payoffs. An immediate corollary is that the set of PPE payoffs is at least weakly increasing as the monitoring becomes more precise. Much of Kandori (1992b) is concerned with establishing conditions under which the monotonicity is strict and characterizing the nature of the increase. Proof For any γ : Y → Rn , write γi : Y → R as the vector in R|Y | describing player i’s

continuation value under γ after different signals. Fix v ∈ W and suppose v is decomposed by (α, γ ) under the public monitoring distribution ρ . For any action proﬁle α , denote the implied vector of probabilities on A also by α . Player i’s expected continuation value under ρ and γ from any action proﬁle α , is then Eρ [γi | α ] = α R γi .

Because (Y , ρ ) is a garbling of (Y, ρ), there exists a stochastic matrix Q so that R = RQ. Deﬁning γi = Qγi , we get Eρ [γi | α ] = α RQγi = α Rγi = Eρ [γi | α ].

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The Bang-Bang Result

In other words, for all action proﬁles α , player i’s expected continuation value under ρ and γ is the same as that under ρ and γ . Hence, α is enforced by γ under ρ. Given the vectors γi ∈ R|Y | for all i, let γ (y) ∈ Rn describe the vector of continuation values for all the players for y ∈ Y . Since Q is independent of i, qyy γ (y ), γ (y) = y ∈Y

where Q = [qyy ]. Finally, because Q is a stochastic matrix, implying γ (y) is a convex combination of the γ (y ), γ (y) ∈ co(W ). ■

7.5

The Bang-Bang Result

The analysis to this point has assumed the set of signals is ﬁnite. The results of the previous sections also hold when there is a continuum of signals, if the signals are continuously distributed, the spaces of stage-game actions are ﬁnite, and we restrict attention to pure strategies. The statements only change by requiring W to be Borel and the mapping γ to be measurable (the proofs are signiﬁcantly complicated by measurability issues; see Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti 1990). We now present the bang-bang result of Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990, theorem 3). We take Y to be a subset of Rn with positive Lebesgue measure, and work with Lebesgue measurable functions γ : Y → W . A function has the bang-bang property if it takes on only extreme points of the set W . The set of extreme points of W ⊂ Rn is denoted extW ≡ {v ∈ W : ∃v , v ∈ coW , λ ∈ (0, 1), v = λv + (1 − λ)v }. Recall the notation from remark 7.3.3. Definition The measurable function γ : Y → W has the bang-bang property if γ (y) ∈ extW

7.5.1 for almost all y ∈ Y . A pure-strategy PPE σ has the bang-bang property if after almost every public history ht , the value of the continuation proﬁle V (σ |ht ) is in extE p (δ). The assumption of a continuum of signals is necessary for the result (see remark 7.6.3). Under that assumption, we can use Lyapunov’s convexity theorem to guarantee that the range of the extreme points of enforcing continuations of an action proﬁle lies in extW . Lyapunov’s theorem plays a similar role in the formulation of the bang-bang principle of optimal control theory. Proposition Suppose A is ﬁnite. Suppose the signals are distributed absolutely continuously

7.5.1 with respect to Lebesgue measure on a subset of Rk , for some k. Suppose W ⊂ Rn is compact and a ∈ A is enforced by γˆ on the convex hull of W . Then, there exists a measurable function γ¯ : Y → extW such that a is enforced by γ¯ on W and V(a, γˆ ) = V(a, γ¯ ). Proof Let L∞ (Y, Rn ) be the space of bounded Lebesgue measurable functions from Y

into Rn (as usual, we identify functions that agree almost everywhere). Deﬁne

ˆ = {γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) : a is enforced by γ on coW , and V(a, γ ) = V(a, γˆ )}.

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ˆ ˆ is nonempty. It is also immediate that ˆ is convex. If Y were Because γˆ ∈ , ﬁnite, it would also be immediate that ˆ is compact and so contains its extreme points (because it is a subset of a ﬁnite dimensional Euclidean space). We defer the proof that ˆ has an extreme point under the current assumptions till the end of the section (lemma 7.5.1). ˆ For ﬁnite Y , there is no expectation that the Let γ¯ be an extreme point of . range of γ¯ lies in extW (see remark 7.6.3). It is here that the continuum of signals plays a role, because the ﬁniteness of A together with an argument due to Aumann (1965, proposition 6.2) will imply that the range of γ¯ lies in extW . Suppose, en route to a contradiction, that for a positive measure set of signals, γ¯ (y) ∈ extW . Then there exists γ , γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) taking values in coW such that γ¯ = 12 (γ + γ ) and for a positive measure set of signals, γ (y) = γ (y).17 Let γ ∗ ≡ 12 (γ − γ ), so that γ¯ + γ ∗ = γ and γ¯ − γ ∗ = γ . We now deﬁne a vector-valued measure µ by setting, for any measurable set Y ⊂ Y, µ(Y ) =

Y

γi∗ (y)ρ(dy | a )

i=1,...,n;a ∈A

∈ Rn|A| ,

where ρ(· | a) is the probability measure on Y implied by a ∈ A. Because γi∗ is bounded for all i (as W is compact), µ is a vector-valued ﬁnite nonatomic measure. By Lyapunov’s convexity theorem (Aliprantis and Border 1999, theorem 12.33), {µ(Y ) : Y a measurable subset of Y } is convex.18 Hence, there exists Y such that µ(Y ) = 12 µ(Y ), with neither Y nor Y \Y having zero Lebesgue measure. Now deﬁne γ¯ , γ¯ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) by

γ¯ (y) =

γ (y),

y ∈ Y ,

γ (y), y ∈ Y ,

and γ¯ (y) =

γ (y),

y ∈ Y ,

γ (y),

y ∈ Y .

Note that both γ¯i and γ¯i take values in coW . Because

γ¯i (y)ρ(dy | a ) Y = γi (y)ρ(dy | a ) + γi (y)ρ(dy | a ) Y Y \Y = [γ¯i (y) + γi∗ (y)]ρ(dy | a ) + [γ¯i (y) − γi∗ (y)]ρ(dy | a ) Y Y \Y = γ¯i (y)ρ(dy | a ) + γi∗ (y)ρ(dy | a ) − γi∗ (y)ρ(dy | a ) Y Y Y \Y 1 1 γ¯i (y)ρ(dy | a ) + γi∗ (y)ρ(dy | a ) − γ ∗ (y)ρ(dy | a ) = 2 Y 2 Y i Y = γ¯i (y)ρ(dy | a ), Y

17. This step requires an appeal to a measurable selection theorem to ensure that γ and γ can be chosen measurable, that is, in L∞ (Y, Rn ). 18. For an elementary proof of Lyapunov’s theorem based on the intermediate value theorem, see Ross (2005).

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253

The Bang-Bang Result

ˆ A similar calculation shows that we also have γ¯ ∈ . ˆ Finally, note that γ¯ ∈ . 1 γ¯ = 2 (γ¯ + γ¯ ) and for a positive measure set of signals, y ∈ Y , γ¯ (y) = γ¯ (y). ˆ But this contradicts γ¯ being an extreme point of . ■

Remark Adding a public correlating device to a ﬁnite public monitoring game with a ﬁnite

7.5.1 signal space yields a public monitoring game whose signals satisfy the hypotheses ¯ in the ﬁnite public monitoring game. of proposition 7.5.1. Suppose Y = {y, y} Denoting the realization of the correlating device by ω ∈ [0, 1], a signal is now y˜ =

ω,

if y = y,

ω + 1,

if y = y. ¯

If the distribution of ω is absolutely continuous on [0, 1], such as for the public correlating device described in deﬁnition 2.1.1, then the distribution of y˜ is absolutely continuous on [0, 2]. The analysis in section 7.2.3 provides a convenient illustration of the bang-bang property in a symmetric setting. For δ ≥ 1/(3p − 2q), the two extreme values are 0 and 2 − (1 − p)/(p − q), and the optimal PPE determines a set of values for ω (though the set is not unique, its probability is and is given by φ), which leads to a bang-bang equilibrium with value 2 − (1 − p)/(p − q). More generally, any particular equilibrium payoff can be decomposed using a correlating distribution with ﬁnite support (because, from Carathéodory’s theorem [Rockafellar 1970, theorem 17.1], any point in co W can be written as a ﬁnite convex combination of points in ext W ). To ensure that any equilibrium payoff can be decomposed, however, the correlating device must have a continuum of values, so that any ﬁnite distribution can be constructed. Even in the absence of a public correlating device, a continuously distributed public signal (via Lyapunov’s theorem) effectively allows us to construct any ﬁnite support public randomizing device “for free.” For example, if the support of y is the unit interval, by dividing the interval into small subintervals, and identifying alternating subintervals with Heads and Tails, we obtain a coin ﬂip. ◆ Corollary Under the hypotheses of proposition 7.5.1, if W ⊂ Rn is compact, B p (W ) =

7.5.1 B p (coW ). Proof By monotonicity of B p , we immediately have B p (W ) ⊂ B p (coW ). Proposi-

tion 7.5.1 implies B p (coW ) ⊂ B p (W ). ■

Corollary Under the hypotheses of proposition 7.5.1, if 0 < δ1 < δ2 < 1, E p (δ1 ) ⊂ E p (δ2 ).

7.5.2 Proof Let W = E p (δ1 ). From proposition 7.3.4, W ⊂ B p (coW ; δ2 ). Because W is

compact, corollary 7.5.1 implies W ⊂ B p (W ; δ2 ). Because W is self-generating (with respect to δ2 ), proposition 7.3.1 implies W ⊂ E p (δ2 ). ■

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Remark Symmetric games Recall that an equilibrium of a symmetric game is strongly

7.5.2 symmetric if all players choose the same action after every public history. Proposition 7.5.1 applies to strongly symmetric PPE.19 Consequently, strongly symmetric equilibria have a particulary simple structure in this case, because there are only two extreme points in the convex hull of the set of strongly symmetric PPE payoffs (we discuss an example in detail in section 11.1.1). However, proposition 7.5.1 does not immediately imply a similar simple structure for general PPE. As we will see in chapter 9, we are often interested in self-generating sets that are balls, whose set of extreme points is a circle with two players and the surface of a sphere with three players. Restricting continuations to this set is not a major simpliﬁcation. ◆ We now complete the proof of proposition 7.5.1. Lemma Under the hypotheses of proposition 7.5.1,

7.5.1 ˆ = {γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) : a is enforced by γ on coW , and V(a, γ ) = V(a, γˆ )}, has an extreme point. Proof We denote by L1 (Y, Rm ) the collection of functions f = (f1 , . . . , fm ), with

each fi Lebesgue integrable. Writing ei for the ith standard basis vector (i.e., the vector whose ith coordinate equals 1 and all other coordinates are 0), any function f ∈ L1 (Y, Rm ) can be written as i fi ei , with fi ∈ L1 (Y, R). For any continuous linear functional F on L1 (Y, Rm ), let Fi be the implied linear functional on L1 (Y, R) deﬁned by, for any function h ∈ L1 (Y, R), Fi (h) ≡ F (hei ). From the Riesz representation theorem (Royden 1988, theorem 6.13), there exists 2 gi ∈ L∞ (Y, R), such that for all h ∈ L1 (Y, R), Fi (h) = hgi . Then, F (f ) =

i

F (fi ei ) =

i

Fi (fi ) =

i

fi gi =

f, g,

where g = (g1 , . . . , gm ) ∈ L∞ (Y, Rm ), and ·, · is the standard inner product on Rm . Hence, L∞ (Y, Rm ) is the dual of L1 (Y, Rm ), and so the set of functions g∞ ≤ 1 (the “unit ball”) is weak-* compact (by Alaoglu’s theorem; Aliprantis and Border 1999, theorem 6.25). But this immediately implies the weak-* compactness of ˆ † ≡ {γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) : γ (y) ∈ coW ∀y ∈ Y }, because for some m ≤ n, it is the image of the unit ball in L∞ (Y, Rm ) under a continuous function. (Because coW is compact and convex, it is homeomorphic to {w ∈ Rm : |w| ≤ 1} for some m; let ϕ : {w ∈ Rm : |w| ≤ 1} → coW denote the homeomorphism. Then, ˆ † is the image of the unit ball in L∞ (Y, Rm ) under the continuous map J , where J (g) = ϕ ◦ g.) 19. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1986) develops the argument for strongly symmetric equilibria.

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An Example with Short-Lived Players

ˆ and argue that it is a weak-* closed subset of ˆ † . Suppose We now turn to , ∞ n γ ∈ L (Y, R ) is the weak-* limit of a net {γ β }. Hence,

γ β (y), f (y)dy →

γ (y), f (y)dy

∀f ∈ L1 (Y, Rn ),

and, in particular, for all i,

β

γi (y)f (y)dy →

γi (y)f (y)dy

∀f ∈ L1 (Y, R).

Because the signals are distributed absolutely continuously with respect to Lebesgue measure, for each action proﬁle, a ∈ A, there is a Radon-Nikodym derivative dρ(· | a )/dy ∈ L1 (Y, R) with

γi (y)ρ(dy | a ) =

γi (y)

dρ(y | a ) dy, dy

∀i,

∀γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ).

This implies that ˆ is a weak-* closed (and so compact) subset of ˆ † , because the additional constraints on γ that deﬁne ˆ only involve expressions of the 2 form γi (y)ρ(dy | a ). Finally, the Krein-Milman theorem (Aliprantis and Border 1999, theorem 5.117) implies that ˆ has an extreme point. ■

7.6

An Example with Short-Lived Players

We revisit the product-choice example of example 2.7.1. The stage game payoffs are reproduced in ﬁgure 7.6.1. We begin with the game on the left, where player 1 is a long-lived and player 2 a short-lived player. We also begin with perfect monitoring. For a mixed proﬁle α in the stage game, let α H = α1 (H ) and α h = α2 (h). We denote a mixed action for player 1 by α H and for player 2 by α h . Then the relevant set of proﬁles incorporating the myopic behavior of player 2 is B = (α H , ) : α H ≤ 12 ∪ (α H , h) : α H ≥ 12 ∪ ( 12 , α h ) : α h ∈ [0, 1] .

h

H

2, 3

0, 2

L

3, 0

1, 1

h

H

2, 3

1, 2

L

3, 0

0, 1

Figure 7.6.1 The games from ﬁgure 2.7.1. The left game is the

product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1. Player 1’s action L is a best reply to 2’s choice of in the left game, but not in the right.

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Moreover, from section 2.7.2, player 1’s minmax payoff, v1 , equals 1, and the upper bound on his equilibrium payoffs, v¯1 , equals 2. In other words, the set of possible PPE player 1 payoffs is the interval [1, 2]. Because there is only one long-lived player, enforceability and decomposition occur on subsets of R, and we drop the subscript on player 1 payoffs. 7.6.1 Perfect Monitoring With perfect monitoring, the set of signals is simply A1 × A2 . The simplest candidate equilibrium in which Hh is played is the grim trigger proﬁle in which play begins with Hh, and remains there until the ﬁrst deviation, after which play is perpetual L. This proﬁle is described by the doubleton set of payoffs {1, 2}. It is readily veriﬁed that this set is self-generating for δ ≥ 1/2, and so the trigger strategy proﬁle is a PPE, and so a subgame-perfect equilibrium, for δ ≥ 1/2. We now ask when the set [1, 2] is self-generating, and begin with the pure proﬁles in B, namely, Hh and L. Because L is a stage-game Nash equilibrium, L is trivially enforceable using a constant continuation. Player 1’s payoffs must lie in the interval [1, 2], so the set of payoffs decomposed by L on [1, 2], W L , is given by v ∈ W L ⇐⇒ ∃γ ∈ [1, 2] such that v = V(L, γ ) = (1 − δ) + δγ . Hence, W L = [1, 1 + δ]. The enforceability of Hh on [1, 2] is straightforward. The pair of continuations γ = (γ (Lh), γ (Hh)) enforces Hh if (1 − δ)2 + δγ (Hh) ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δγ (Lh), that is, γ (Hh) ≥ γ (Lh) +

(1 − δ) . δ

(7.6.1)

Hence, the set of payoffs decomposed by Hh on [1, 2], W Hh , is given by v ∈ W Hh ⇐⇒ ∃γ (Lh), γ (Hh) ∈ [1, 2] satisfying (7.6.1) such that v = V(Hh, γ ) = (1 − δ)2 + δγ (Hh). Hence, W Hh = [3 − 2δ, 2] if δ ≥ 1/2 (it is empty if δ < 1/2). The set of possible PPE payoffs [1, 2] is self-generating if W L ∪ W Hh ⊃ [1, 2]. Thus, [1, 2] is self-generating, and so every payoff in [1, 2] is a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff, if δ ≥ 2/3. This requirement on δ is tighter than the requirement (δ ≥ 1/2) for grim trigger to be an equilibrium. Just as in section 2.5.4, we could describe the equilibrium-outcome path for any v ∈ [1, 2]. Of course, here player 2’s action is always a myopic best reply to that of player 1. Although W L ∪ W Hh ⊃ [1, 2] is sufﬁcient for the self-generation of [1, 2], it is not necessary, as we now illustrate. In fact, the set [1, 2] is self-generating for δ ∈ [1/2, 2/3) as well as for higher δ once we use mixed strategies. Consider the

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An Example with Short-Lived Players

mixed proﬁle α = (1/2, α h ) for ﬁxed α h ∈ [0, 1]. Because both actions for player 1 are played with strictly positive probability, the continuations γ must satisfy v = α h [(1 − δ)2 + δγ (Hh)] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) × 0 + δγ (H )] = α h [(1 − δ)3 + δγ (Lh)] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) + δγ (L)], where the ﬁrst expression is the expected payoff from H and the second is that from L. Rearranging, we have the requirement δα h [γ (Hh) − γ (H ) − (γ (Lh) − γ (L))] = (1 − δ) + δ(γ (L) − γ (H )). We now try enforcing α with continuations that satisfy γ (Hh) = γ (H ) ≡ γ H and γ (Lh) = γ (L) ≡ γ L . Imposing this constraint yields γH = γL +

(1 − δ) . δ

(7.6.2)

Because we can choose γ H , γ L ∈ [1, 2] to satisfy this constraint as long as δ ≥ 1/2, we conclude that α is enforceable on [1, 2]. Moreover, the set of payoffs decomposed by α = (1/2, α h ) on [1, 2], W α , is given by v ∈ W α ⇐⇒ ∃γ L , γ H ∈ [1, 2] satisfying (7.6.2) such that v = V(α, γ ) = 2α h (1 − δ) + δγ H . Hence, W α = [2α h (1 − δ) + 1, 2α h (1 − δ) + 2δ]. Finally, ∪{α:α h ∈[0,1]} W α = [1, 2]. Hence, the set of payoffs [1, 2] is self-generating, and therefore is the maximal set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs, for all δ ≥ 1/2. The lower bound on δ agrees with that for the trigger strategy proﬁle to be an equilibrium, and is lower than for self-generation of [1, 2] under pure strategies. Moreover, we have shown that for any v ∈ [1, 2], a subgame-perfect equilibrium with that expected payoff has the long-run player randomizing in every period, putting equal probability on H and L, independent of history. The randomizations of the short-lived player, on the other hand, do depend on history. We now ask whether there is a simple strategy of this form. In particular, is the doubleton set {γ L , γ H } ≡ {γ H − (1 − δ)/δ, γ H } self-generating, where the value for γ L was chosen to satisfy (7.6.2)? The payoff γ H is decomposed by α = (1/2, α h (H )) on {γ L , γ H }, with α h (H ) = γ H /2. The payoff γ L is decomposed by α = (1/2, α h (L)) on {γ L , γ H } if γ L = α h (L) 2 (1 − δ) + δγ H .

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Figure 7.6.2 The automaton representing the proﬁle with payoffs {γ L , γ H }. The associated behavior is f (γ H ) = (1/2, α h (H )) and f (γ L ) = (1/2, α h (L)). Building on the intuition of section 7.3, states are labeled with their values. State transitions only depend on player 1’s realized action and player 1 plays identically in the two states, whereas player 2 plays differently.

Solving for the implied α h (L) gives γ H (1 − δ)δ − (1 − δ) γ L − δγ H = 2(1 − δ) 2δ(1 − δ) δγ H − 1 1 = α h (H ) − . = 2δ 2δ

α h (L) =

The quantities α h (H ) and α h (L) are well-deﬁned probabilities for γ H ∈ [1/δ, 2] and δ ≥ 1/2. Note that the implied range for γ L is [1, 2 − (1 − δ)/δ]. Hence, we have a one-dimensional manifold of mixed equilibria. The associated proﬁle is displayed in ﬁgure 7.6.2. Player 1 is indifferent between L, the myopically dominant action, and H , because a play of H is rewarded in the next period by h with probability α H , rather than with the lower probability α L . Remark Because player 1’s behavior in these mixed strategy equilibria is independent of

7.6.1 history, based on such proﬁles, it is possible to construct nontrivial equilibria when signals are private, precluding the use of histories to coordinate continuation play. We construct such an equilibrium in section 12.5. ◆ We turn now to the stage game on the right in ﬁgure 7.6.1, maintaining perfect monitoring and our convention on α H and α h . The relevant set of proﬁles is still given by the set B calculated earlier (since player 2’s payoffs are identical in the two games). Moreover, the bounds on player 1’s equilibrium payoffs are unchanged: Player 1’s payoffs must lie in the interval [1, 2]. The crucial change is that player 1’s choice L (facilitating 2’s minmaxing of 1) is no longer a myopic best reply to that action of . As before, we begin with the pure proﬁles in B, namely, Hh and L. Because L is not a stage-game Nash equilibrium, the enforceability of L must be dealt with similarly to that of Hh. The enforceability of both L and Hh on [1, 2] is, as before, immediate; it is enough that γ (L) − γ (H ), γˆ (Hh) − γˆ (Lh) ≥ (1 − δ)/δ, where γ and γˆ are the continuation functions for L and Hh, respectively. Hence, the set of payoffs decomposed by L is the interval [1, 2δ], whereas the set of payoffs decomposed by Hh is the interval [3 − 2δ, 2]. Thus, [1, 2] is self-generating for δ ≥ 3/4. Because L is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, there are no pure strategy equilibria in trigger strategies. However, as we saw in example 2.7.1, there are simple

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An Example with Short-Lived Players

Figure 7.6.3 The automaton representing the proﬁle with payoffs {2δ, 2}. The associated behavior is f (wa ) = a.

proﬁles in which Hh is played. For example, the doubleton set of payoffs {2δ, 2} is easily seen to be self-generating if δ ≥ 1/2, because in that case 2 − 2δ ≥ (1 − δ)/δ. This self-generating set corresponds to the equilibrium described in example 2.7.1, and illustrated in ﬁgure 7.6.3. We now turn to enforceability of mixed-action proﬁles, α = (1/2, α h ) for ﬁxed h α ∈ [0, 1]. Similarly to before, the continuations γ must satisfy v = α h [(1 − δ)2 + δγ (Hh)] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) + δγ (H )] = α h [(1 − δ)3 + δγ (Lh)] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) × 0 + δγ (L)]. Rearranging, we have α h [(1 − δ)2 + δ(γ (Lh) − γ (L) − (γ (Hh) − γ (H )))] = (1 − δ) + δ(γ (H ) − γ (L)).

(7.6.3)

We now try enforcing α with continuations that satisfy γ (Hh) = γ (H ) ≡ γ H and γ (Lh) = γ (L) ≡ γ L . Imposing this constraint, and rearranging, yields γ H = γ L + (2α h − 1)

(1 − δ) . δ

(7.6.4)

Because for δ ≥ 1/2 and any α h ∈ [0, 1] we can choose γ H , γ L ∈ [1, 2] to satisfy this constraint, α is enforceable on [1, 2]. Note that, unlike for the product choice game, here the continuations depend on the current randomizing behavior of player 2. This is a result of player 1’s myopic incentive to play L depending on the current play of player 2. An alternative would be to choose continuations so that the coefﬁcient of α h equaled 0 in (7.6.3), in which case continuations depend on the realized action of player 2. The set of payoffs decomposed by α = (1/2, α h ) on [1, 2], W α , is given by v ∈ W α ⇐⇒ ∃γ L , γ H ∈ [1, 2] satisfying (7.6.4) such that v = 3α h (1 − δ) + δγ L . Hence, for α h ≥ 1/2, W α = [3α h (1 − δ) + δ, α h (1 − δ) + 1 + δ], and for α h ≤ 1/2, W α = [α h (1 − δ) + 1, 3α h (1 − δ) + 2δ].

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Finally, ∪{α:α h ∈[0,1]} W α = [1, 2]. Hence, the set of payoffs [1, 2] is self-generating for δ ≥ 1/2. Consequently, every payoff in [1, 2] is a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff for δ ≥ 1/2. 7.6.2 Imperfect Public Monitoring of the Long-Lived Player We now discuss the impact of public monitoring on the product-choice game (the left game in ﬁgure 7.6.1). The actions of the long-lived player are now not public, but there ¯ of his action. We interpret y¯ as high quality and y as low is a public signal y1 ∈ {y, y} quality. The actions of the short-lived player remain public, and so the space of public ¯ × A2 .20 The distribution of y1 is given by signals is Y ≡ {y, y} ρ1 (y¯ | a) =

p, if a1 = H ,

q,

if a1 = L,

(7.6.5)

with 0 < q < p < 1. The joint distribution ρ over Y is given by ρ(y1 y2 | a) = ρ1 (y1 | a) if y2 = a2 , and 0 otherwise. The relevant set of proﬁles continues to be given by the set B calculated earlier. Moreover, the bounds on player 1’s equilibrium payoffs are still valid: Player 1’s payoffs must lie in the interval [1, 2]. Denote player 1’s maximum PPE payoff by v ∗ ≥ 1 (recall that because there is only one long-lived player, we drop the subscript on player 1’s payoff). As before, we begin with the pure proﬁles in B, namely, Hh and L. Because L is a stage-game Nash equilibrium, L is trivially enforceable using a constant continuation. Moreover, we consider ﬁrst only continuations implemented by pure strategy PPE. Let v ∗p denote the maximum pure strategy PPE player 1 payoff. Player 1’s payoffs must lie in the interval [1, v ∗p ], so the set of payoffs decomposed by L on [1, v ∗p ], W L , is given by v ∈ W L ⇐⇒ ∃γ ∈ [1, v ∗p ] such that v = (1 − δ) + δγ . Hence,

W L = [1, 1 + δ(v ∗p − 1)].

It is worth noting that if v ∗p > 1, then v ∗p ∈ W L . ¯ × A2 → [1, v ∗p ] enforce Hh if The continuations γ : {y, y} 2(1 − δ) + δ{pγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − p)γ (yh)} ≥ 3(1 − δ) + δ{qγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − q)γ (yh)}, that is, γ (yh) ¯ ≥ γ (yh) +

(1 − δ) . δ(p − q)

(7.6.6)

Hence, the payoff following the good signal y¯ must exceed that of the bad signal y by the difference (1 − δ)/[δ(p − q)]. This payoff difference shrinks as the discount 20. It is worth noting that the analysis is unchanged when the short-lived players’ actions are not public. This corresponds to taking {y, y} ¯ as the space of public signals.

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An Example with Short-Lived Players

factor increases, and hence the temptation of a current deviation diminishes, and as p − q increases, and hence signals become more responsive to actions. Let W Hh denote the set of payoffs that can be decomposed by Hh on [1, v ∗p ]. Then, v ∈ W Hh ⇐⇒ ∃γ (yh), γ (yh) ¯ ∈ [1, v ∗p ] satisfying (7.6.6) such that v = V(Hh, γ ) = (1 − δ)2 + δ{pγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − p)γ (yh)}. The maximum value of W Hh is obtained by setting γ (yh) ¯ = v ∗p and having (7.6.6) hold with equality. We thus have (if v ∗p > 1) v ∗p = max W Hh = (1 − δ)2 −

(1 − δ)(1 − p) + δv ∗p , (p − q)

and solving for v ∗p gives v ∗p = 2 −

(1 − p) < 2 = v. ¯ (p − q)

We need to verify that v ∗p > 1, which is equivalent to (1 − p) < (p − q), that is, 2p − q > 1. If 2p − q ≤ 1, then the only pure strategy PPE is L in every period. Remark Inefficiency due to binding moral hazard Player 1 is subject to binding moral

7.6.2 hazard (deﬁnition 8.3.1). As a result, all PPE are inefﬁcient (proposition 8.3.1). We have just shown that the maximum pure strategy PPE player 1 payoff is strictly less than 2. We next demonstrate that for large δ, all PPE in this example are bounded away from efﬁciency (we return to the general case in section 8.3.2). This is in contrast to both the perfect monitoring version of this example (where we have already seen that for a sufﬁciently patient long-lived player, there are efﬁcient PPE), and the general case of only long-lived players (where, under appropriate regularity conditions and for patient players, there are approximately efﬁcient PPE, proposition 9.2.1). Intuitively, the imperfection in the monitoring implies that on the equilibrium path player 1 must face low continuations with positive probability. Because player 2 is short-lived, it is impossible to use intertemporal transfers of payoffs to maintain efﬁciency while still providing incentives. ◆ The minimum value of W Hh is obtained by setting γ (yh) = 1 and having (7.6.6) hold with equality. We thus have min W Hh = 1 +

(1 − δ)(2p − q) . (p − q)

The set of payoffs [1, v ∗p ] is self-generating using pure strategies if W L ∪ W Hh ⊃ [1, v ∗p ], which is implied by min W Hh ≤ max W L .

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Substituting and solving for the bound on δ gives (2p − q) ≤ δ. (4p − 2q − 1)

(7.6.7)

The bound 2p − q > 1 implies the left side is less than 1. When W L ∪ W Hh ⊃ [1, v ∗p ], v ∗p can be achieved in a pure strategy equilibrium, ¯ decomposing v ∗p using Hh are because the continuation promises γ (yh) and γ (yh) L Hh ¯ elements of W ∪ W , and the continuation promises supporting γ (yh) and γ (yh) are themselves in W L ∪ W Hh , and so on. A strategy proﬁle that achieves the payoff v ∗p can be constructed as follows. First, set γ (v) = (v − (1 − δ))/δ (the constant continuation decomposing v using L), and let γ y¯ , γ y : [0, v ∗p ] → R be the functions solving v = V(Hh, (γ y¯ (v), γ y (v))) when (7.6.6) holds with equality: 2(1 − δ) (1 − p)(1 − δ) v − + , δ δ δ(p − q) 2(1 − δ) p(1 − δ) v γy = − − . δ δ δ(p − q)

γ y¯ = and

Now, deﬁne ζ : H → [1, v ∗p ] as follows: ζ (∅) = v ∗p and for ht ∈ H t , y¯ t t Hh γ (ζ (h )), if y1 = y¯ and ζ (h ) ∈ W , ζ (ht , y1 a2 ) = γ y (ζ (ht )), if y1 = y and ζ (ht ) ∈ W Hh , γ (ζ (ht )), if ζ (ht ) ∈ W L \W Hh . The strategies are then given by σ1 (∅) = H, σ2 (∅) = h, H, if ζ (ht ) ∈ W Hh , t σ1 (h ) = L, if ζ (ht ) ∈ W L \W Hh , and

σ2 (h ) = t

h,

if ζ (ht ) ∈ W Hh ,

,

if ζ (ht ) ∈ W L \W Hh .

We thus associate with every history of signals ht a continuation payoff ζ (ht ). This continuation payoff allows us to associate an action with the history, either Hh or L, depending on whether the continuation payoff lies in the set W Hh or W L \W Hh . We then associate with the signals continuation payoffs that decompose the current continuation payoff into the payoff of the currently prescribed action and a new continuation payoff. If the currently prescribed action is L, this decomposition is trivial, as the current payoff is 1 and there are no incentives to be created. We can then take the continuation payoff to be simply (ζ (ht ) − (1 − δ))/δ. When the currently prescribed action is Hh, we assign continuation payoffs according to the functions γ y¯ and γ y that allow us to enforce payoffs in the set W Hh . There is still the possibility that mixing by the players will allow player 1 to achieve a higher PPE payoff or achieve additional PPE payoffs for lower δ. In what follows,

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An Example with Short-Lived Players

recall that v ∗ is the maximum player 1 PPE payoff, allowing for mixed strategies, and so v ∗ ≥ v ∗p . Consider the mixed proﬁle α = (1/2, α h ) for ﬁxed α h ∈ [0, 1]. Because both actions for player 1 are played with strictly positive probability, the continuations γ must satisfy ¯ + (1 − p)γ (yh)}] v = α h [(1 − δ)2 + δ{pγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − p)γ (y)}] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) × 0 + δ{pγ (y) = α h [(1 − δ)3 + δ{qγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − q)γ (yh)}] ¯ + (1 − q)γ (y)}], + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) + δ{qγ (y) where the ﬁrst expression is the expected payoff from H and the second is that from L. Rearranging, the continuations must satisfy the requirement δ(p − q)[α h γ (yh) ¯ + (1 − α h )γ (y) ¯ − {α h γ (yh) + (1 − α h )γ (y)}] = (1 − δ). (7.6.8)

Letting

¯ + (1 − α h )γ (y) ¯ γ y¯ (α h ) = α h γ (yh)

and γ y (α h ) = α h γ (yh) + (1 − α h )γ (y), requirement (7.6.8) can be rewritten as γ y¯ (α h ) = γ y (α h ) +

(1 − δ) . δ(p − q)

(7.6.9)

If we can choose γ (y1 a2 ) ∈ [1, v ∗ ] to satisfy this constraint, then α is enforceable on [1, v ∗ ]. A sufﬁcient condition to do so is (1 − δ) ≤ v ∗p − 1 δ(p − q) because v ∗p ≤ v ∗ . The above inequality is implied by 1 ≤ δ. (2p − q)

(7.6.10)

If α is enforceable on [1, v ∗ ], the set of payoffs decomposed by α = (1/2, α h ) on [1, v ∗ ], W α , is given by v ∈ W α ⇐⇒ ∃γ (y1 a2 ) ∈ [1, v ∗ ] satisfying (7.6.9) such that v = V(α, γ ) = 2α h (1 − δ) + δ{pγ y¯ (α h ) + (1 − p)γ y (α h )}. Hence, W

α

" p(1 − δ) (1 − p)(1 − δ) h ∗ , 2α (1 − δ) + δv − , = 2α (1 − δ) + δ + (p − q) (p − q) !

h

which is nonempty if (7.6.10) holds.

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We can now determine v ∗ : Because v ∗ = supα max W α , and the supremum is achieved by α h = 1, it is straightforward to verify v ∗ = v ∗p . Hence, under (7.6.10), ∪{α:α h ∈[0,1]} W α = [1, v ∗ ] = [1, v ∗p ], and the set of payoffs [1, v ∗ ] is self-generating, and so is the maximal set of PPE payoffs, for all δ satisfying (7.6.10). Moreover, this lower bound on δ is lower than that in (7.6.7), the bound for self-generation of [1, v ∗ ] under pure strategies. Remark Failure of bang-bang The payoff v ∗ can only be decomposed by (Hh, γˆ ) on

7.6.3 [1, v ∗ ], where γˆ (y) ¯ = v ∗ and γˆ (y) solves (7.6.6) with equality. Consequently, the set ˆ in the proof of proposition 7.5.1 is the singleton {γˆ }, and so (trivially) γˆ is ˆ Because ext[1, v ∗ ] = {1, v ∗ }, γˆ (y) ∈ ext[1, v ∗ ], and the an extreme point of . bang-bang property fails. The problem is that after the signal y, decomposability of v ∗ requires a lower payoff than v ∗ , but not as low as 1. If there was a public correlating device, then the bang-bang property could trivially be achieved by specifying a public correlation over continuations in {1, v ∗ } whose expected value equaled γˆ (y). ◆

7.7

The Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Redux

7.7.1 Symmetric Inefficiency Revisited Let γ¯ be the largest payoff in any strongly symmetric pure-strategy PPE of the repeated prisoners’ dilemma from section 7.2. From (7.2.17), we know γ¯ ≤ 2 −

(1 − p) . (p − q)

(7.7.1)

We now show that this upper bound can be achieved without the correlating device used in section 7.2.3. The strategy proﬁle in section 7.2.3 used grim trigger, with a bad signal triggering permanent SS with a probability smaller than 1 (using public correlation). Here we show that by appropriately keeping track of the history of signals, we can effectively do the same thing without public correlation. We are interested in strongly symmetric pure-strategy equilibria, so we need only be concerned with the enforceability of EE and SS, and we will be enforcing on diagonal subsets of R2 , that is, subsets where γ1 = γ2 . We treat such subsets as subsets of R. We are interested in constructing a proﬁle similar to grim trigger, but where the ﬁrst observation of y need not trigger the switch to SS. (Two examples of such proﬁles are displayed in ﬁgures 13.4.1 and 13.4.2.) We show that a set W ≡ {0} ∪ [γ , γ¯ ], with γ > 0, is self-generating. Note that W is not an interval. Observe ﬁrst that 0 is trivially decomposed on this set by SS, because SS is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game and no intertemporal considerations are needed to enforce SS. Hence a constant continuation payoff of 0 sufﬁces. We decompose the other payoffs using EE, with two different speciﬁcations of continuations. Let W be the set of payoffs that can be decomposed using EE on W and imposing the continuation value γ y = 0, whereas W will be the set of payoffs that can be decomposed using EE on [γ , γ¯ ] (so that γ y > 0).

7.7

■

The Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Redux

265

The pair of values γ = (γ y , γ y¯ ) enforces EE if (1 − δ)2 + δ{pγ y¯ + (1 − p)γ y } ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ{qγ y¯ + (1 − q)γ y }, that is, γ y¯ ≥ γ y +

(1 − δ) ≡ γ y + . δ(p − q)

(7.7.2)

The set of payoffs that can be decomposed using EE on W and imposing the continuation value γ y = 0 is given by v ∈ W ⇐⇒ ∃γ y¯ ∈ [γ , γ¯ ] satisfying (7.7.2) such that v = V(EE, γ ) = (1 − δ)2 + δpγ y¯ . Observe that if W is self-generating, then the minimum of W must equal γ . To ﬁnd that value, we set γ y¯ = γ , and solve γ = (1 − δ)2 + δpγ to obtain

(1 − δ)2 . 1 − δp To decompose γ in this way, (7.7.2) must be feasible, that is, γ =

γ ≥

(1 − δ) , δ(p − q)

or δ≥

1 ≡ δ0 . (3p − 2q)

(7.7.3)

When this condition holds, the two-point set {0, γ } is self-generating (and corresponds to grim trigger), whereas the set W is empty if (7.7.3) fails. The bound (7.7.3) is the same as that for grim trigger to be an equilibrium without (see (7.2.4)) or with (see (7.2.16)) public correlation. The maximum value of W , γ¯ is obtained by setting γ y¯ = γ¯ , and so we have " ! (1 − δ)2 , 2(1 − δ) + δpγ¯ . W = [γ , γ¯ ] = 1 − δp We now consider W . To ﬁnd the maximum v ∈ W , we set v = γ¯ = γ y¯ and suppose (7.7.2) holds with equality: (1 − δ) γ¯ = (1 − δ)2 + δ p γ¯ + (1 − p) γ¯ − δ(p − q) (1 − p)(1 − δ) , = 2(1 − δ) + δ γ¯ − (p − q) so that γ¯ = 2 −

(1 − p) , (p − q)

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matching the value in (7.7.1). If condition (7.7.3) holds with equality, then γ = γ¯ . We must also verify that (7.7.2) is consistent with decomposing γ¯ on [γ , γ¯ ], which requires γ ≤ γ¯ − = γ¯ −

(1 − δ) . δ(p − q)

(7.7.4)

Because γ¯ is independent of δ, and both and γ converge to 0 as δ → 1, there exists a δ1 < 1 such that for δ > δ1 , (7.7.4) is satisﬁed. Moreover, because γ = γ¯ for δ = δ0 (the lower bound in (7.7.3)), δ1 > δ0 . This implies that for δ ∈ [δ0 , δ1 ), W is empty. To ﬁnd the minimum value γ ≡ min W , we set γ y = γ and again suppose (7.7.2) holds with equality. We thus have " ! (1 − p) W = [γ , γ¯ ] = 2(1 − δ) + δγ + δp, 2 − . (p − q) For self-generation, we need W = {0} ∪ W ∪ W , which is implied by γ ≤ γ¯ . This is equivalent to γ ≤ p(γ¯ − ). Similarly to (7.7.4), there exists δ2 > δ1 such that the above inequality holds for all larger δ. If δ ≥ δ2 , the upper bound γ¯ can be achieved in a pure strategy symmetric equilibrium. The implied strategy proﬁle has a structure similar to grim trigger with public correlation. For all strictly positive continuation values, the players continue to exert effort, but the ﬁrst time a continuation γ y equals 0, SS is played permanently thereafter. Remark Multiple self-generating sets We could instead have determined the conditions

7.7.1 under which the entire interval [0, γ¯ ] is self-generating. Because the analysis for that case is very similar to that in section 7.6.2, we simply observe that [0, γ¯ ] is indeed self-generating if δ≥

3p − 2q . 2(3p − 2q) − 1

(7.7.5)

Notice that the bound δ2 and the bound given by (7.7.5) exceed the bound (7.2.16) for obtaining γ¯ with public correlation. The self-generating sets [0, γ¯ ] and {0} ∪ [γ , γ¯ ] allow Nash reversion (because both include the payoff 0). Because PPE need not rely on Nash reversion (for example, the proﬁle in section 7.2.2 has one-period recall), there are self-generating sets that exclude 0 and indeed that exclude a neighborhood of 0. For example, it is easily veriﬁed that if q < 2r, the set [1, γ¯ ] is self-generating for sufﬁciently large δ. Finally, the set of continuation values generated by a strongly symmetric PPE with bounded recall (see deﬁnition 13.3.1) is a ﬁnite self-generating set and, if EE can be played, excludes 0. ◆

7.7

■

The Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Redux

267

As p − q → 0, the bounds on δ implied by (7.7.3)–(7.7.5) become increasingly severe and the maximum strongly symmetric PPE payoff converges to 0. This is not surprising, because if p − q is small, it is very difﬁcult to detect a deviation when the opponent is choosing E. In particular, if p − q is sufﬁciently close to 0 that (7.7.2) is violated, even for γ y¯ = 2 and γ y = 0, the pure-action proﬁle EE cannot be enforced. On the other hand, if q − r is large, then the distribution over signals under ES is very different than under SS. Thus, if player i is playing S with positive probability, then E may now be enforceable. (This possibility also underlies the superiority of the private strategy examples of sections 10.2 and 10.4.) Consequently, there may be strongly symmetric mixed equilibria with a payoff strictly larger than 0, a possibility we explore in section 7.7.2. The observation that even though a pure-action proﬁle a is unenforceable, a mixed-action proﬁle that assigns positive probability to a may be enforceable, is more general. Remark Symmetric payoffs from asymmetric profiles If q > 2r, it is possible to achieve

7.7.2 the symmetric payoff of (1, 1) using the asymmetric action proﬁles ES and SE. For sufﬁciently large δ, familiar calculations verify that the largest set of pure-strategy PPE payoffs in which only ES and SE are played in each period is W = {(v ∈ R2 : v1 + v2 = 2, vi ≥ r/(q − r), i = 1, 2} (i.e., W is the largest self-generating set using only ES and SE). Because q > 2r, we have r/(q − r) < 1 < 2 − r/(q − r), and there is an asymmetric pure-strategy PPE in which each player has payoff 1. Hence, for p sufﬁciently close to q, although (1, 1) cannot be achieved in a strongly symmetric PPE, it can be achieved in an asymmetric PPE. Finally, there is an asymmetric equilibrium in which EE is never played, and player 2’s payoff is strictly larger than 2 − r/(q − r) (this PPE uses SS to relax incentive constraints, see note 6 on page 289). ◆

7.7.2 Enforcing a Mixed-Action Profile Let α denote a completely mixed symmetric action proﬁle in the prisoners’ dilemma. We ﬁrst argue that α can in some situations be enforced even when EE cannot. When q is close to p, player 1 still has a (weak) incentive to play E when player 2 is randomizing because with positive probability (the probability that 2 plays S) a change from E to S will substantially change the distribution over signals. To conserve on notation, we denote the probability that each player assigns to E in the symmetric proﬁle by α. Let ¯ The payoff to player 1 from E when γ y , γ y¯ ∈ F † be the continuations after y and y. player 2 is randomizing with probability α on E is y¯ y γ g1 (E, α) = α 2(1 − δ) + δ pγ1 + (1 − p)γ1 y¯ y + (1 − α) (−1)(1 − δ) + δ qγ1 + (1 − q)γ1 y¯ y = (1 − δ)(3α − 1) + δ α pγ1 + (1 − p)γ1 y¯ y + (1 − α) qγ1 + (1 − q)γ1 .

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The payoff from S is y¯ y γ g1 (S, α) = α 3(1 − δ) + δ qγ1 + (1 − q)γ1 y¯ y + (1 − α) δ rγ1 + (1 − r)γ1 . γ

γ

For player 1 to be willing to randomize, we need g1 (E, α) = g1 (S, α), that is,

y y¯ γ1 − γ1 =

(1 − δ) . δ[α(p − q) + (1 − α)(q − r)]

(7.7.6)

We now investigate when there exists a value of α and feasible continuations y¯ solving (7.7.6). Let f (α, γ1 ) be the payoff to player 1 when player 2 puts α weight on E and (7.7.6) is satisﬁed: y¯

f (α, γ1 ) = (1 − δ)(3α − 1) −

(α(1 − p) + (1 − α)(1 − q))(1 − δ) y¯ + δγ1 . (α(p − q) + (1 − α)(q − r))

Self-generation suggests solving γ¯ (α) = f (α, γ¯ (α)), yielding γ¯ (α) = (3α − 1) −

(α(1 − p) + (1 − α)(1 − q)) . (α(p − q) + (1 − α)(q − r))

(7.7.7)

We need to know if there is a value of α ∈ [0, 1] for which γ¯ (α) is sufﬁciently y y¯ large that (7.7.6) can be satisﬁed with γ1 = γ¯ (α) for some α and γ1 ≥ 0. To simplify calculations, we ﬁrst consider p = q.21 In this case, the function γ¯ (α) is maximized at 3 (1 − q) α¯ = 1 − 3(q − r) with a value

3 γ¯ (α) ¯ =2−2

3(1 − q) . (q − r)

From (7.7.6), α is enforceable if γ¯ (α)(1 ¯ − α) ¯ ≥

(1 − δ) . δ(q − r)

(7.7.8)

Inequality (7.7.8) is satisﬁed for δ sufﬁciently close to 1, if γ¯ (α)(1 ¯ − α) ¯ > 0. The payoff γ¯ (α) ¯ is strictly positive if 3 + r < 4q,

(7.7.9)

and this inequality also implies α¯ ∈ (2/3, 1). Given q and r satisfying (7.7.9), let δ be a lower bound on δ so that (7.7.8) holds. 21. As we discuss in note 7 on page 238, assuming p = q is inconsistent with the representation of stage-game payoffs as expected ex post payoffs. We relax the assumption p = q at the end of the example.

7.8

■

269

Anonymous Players

Suppose (7.7.9) holds and δ ∈ (δ, 1). Because γ¯ (α)(1 − α) is a continuous function of α, with γ¯ (0) < 0, there exists α(δ) such that γ¯ (α(δ))(1 − α(δ)) =

(1 − δ) . δ(q − r)

Hence, the set of payoffs {(0, 0), (γ¯ (α(δ)), γ¯ (α(δ)))} is self-generating for δ ∈ (δ, 1). The associated PPE is strongly symmetric and begins with each player randomizing with probability α(δ) on E, and continually playing this mixed action until the ﬁrst observation of y. After the ﬁrst observation of y, play switches to permanent S. Indeed, for sufﬁciently high δ, the symmetric set of payoffs described by the interval [0, γ¯ (α)] ¯ is self-generating: Every payoff in the interval [0, δ γ¯ (α)] ¯ can be decomposed by SS and some constant continuation in [0, γ¯ (α)]. ¯ The function f is increasing y y¯ y¯ in γ1 for ﬁxed α, as well as in α for ﬁxed γ1 . Moreover, consistent with γ1 ≥ 0 y¯ and recalling the role of (7.7.6) in the deﬁnition of f , f is minimized at (α, γ1 ) = (0, (1 − δ)/[δ(q − r)]) with a value (1 − δ)r/(q − r). Hence, every payoff in [(1 − δ)r/(q − r), γ¯ (α)] ¯ can be decomposed by some α and continuations in [0, γ¯ (α)]. ¯ 22 We now return to the case p > q. By continuity, for p sufﬁciently close to q, γ¯ (α) will be maximized at some α˜ ∈ (0, 1), with γ¯ (α) ˜ > 0. Hence for δ sufﬁciently close to 1, the set [0, γ¯ (α)] ˜ is self-generating.

7.8

Anonymous Players

In section 2.7, we argued that short-lived players can be interpreted as a continuum of small, anonymous, long-lived players when histories include only aggregate outcomes. Because a small and anonymous player, though long-lived, has no effect on the aggregate outcome and hence on future play, he should choose a myopic best response. As we discussed in remark 2.7.1, this interpretation opens a potentially troubling discontinuity: Equilibrium behavior with a large but ﬁnite number of small players may be very different under perfect monitoring than with small anonymous players. Under imperfect monitoring, this discontinuity disappears. Consider, for example, a version of the prisoners’dilemma with a single long-lived player 1 and a ﬁnite number N − 1 of long-lived players in the role of player 2. Player 1’s actions are perfectly monitored, whereas the actions of the other players are only imperfectly monitored. For each player i, i = 2, . . . , N, there are two signals ei and si , independently distributed according to 1 − ε, ai = E, ρi (ei | ai ) = ε, ai = S, where ε < 1/2. Player 1’s stage game payoff is the average of the payoff from the play with each player i ∈ {2, . . . , N}. Figure 7.8.1 gives the ex post payoffs from a single interaction as a function of player 1’s action E or S and the signal e and s generated 22. For some parameter values (p ≈ q and 13q − r > 12), the best strongly symmetric mixedstrategy proﬁle achieves a higher symmetric payoff than the asymmetric proﬁle of remark 7.7.2, which in turn achieves a higher symmetric payoff than any pure-strategy strongly symmetric PPE.

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ei

si

E

E

2−ε 2−5ε 1−2ε , 1−2ε

3−5ε − (1+ε) 1−2ε , 1−2ε

E

2, 2

S

(1−ε) 3−3ε 1−2ε , − 1−2ε

3ε ε − 1−2ε , 1−2ε

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 7.8.1 Ex post payoffs from a single interaction between player 1 and a player i ∈ {2, . . . , N} (left panel) as a function of player 1’s action E or S and the signal ei or si , and the ex ante payoffs (right panel), the payoffs in ﬁgure 7.2.1.

by player 2’s action, as well as the ex ante payoff (which agrees with our standard prisoners’ dilemma payoff matrix, ﬁgure 7.2.1). We consider a class of automata with two states and public correlation:23 Given a public signal y ∈ {E, S} × i≥2 {ei , si }, we deﬁne #(y) = |{i ≥ 2 : yi = si }|, that is, #(y) is the number of “shirk” signals in y (apart from player 1, who is perfectly monitored). The set of states is W = {wE , wS }, the initial state is w 0 = wE , the output function is fi (wE ) = E and fi (wS ) = S for i = 1, . . . , N, and the transition function τ is given by, where τ (w, y) is the probability of a transition to state wE , 1, if w = wE , y1 = E and #(y) ≤ κ, τ (w, y) = φ, if w = wE , y1 = E and #(y) > κ, 0, otherwise. Any deviation by player 1 (which is detected for sure) triggers immediate permanent shirking, and more than κ signals of si for the other players only randomly triggers permanent shirking. Consequently, whenever the incentive constraints for a player i, i = 2, . . . , N, are satisﬁed, so are player 1’s, and so we focus on player i. The analysis of this proﬁle is identical to that of the proﬁle in section 7.2.3, once we set p equal to the probability of the event that #(y) ≤ κ when no player deviates and q equal to the probability of that event when exactly one player deviates. Thus, p = Pr{#(y) ≤ κ | ai = E, i = 1, . . . , N} =

κ τ =0

(N − 1)! ε τ (1 − ε)N −1−τ τ !(N − 1 − τ )!

and q = Pr{#(y) ≤ κ | aN = S, ai = E, i = 1, . . . , N − 1} = (1 − ε) +ε

κ−1

τ =0 κ τ =0

(N − 2)! ε τ (1 − ε)N−2−τ τ !(N − 2 − τ )!

(N − 2)! ε τ (1 − ε)N −2−τ , τ !(N − 2 − τ )!

23. In sections 7.6.2 and 7.7.1, we saw that public correlation serves only to simplify the calculation of upper bounds on payoffs.

7.8

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271

Anonymous Players

where the ﬁrst sum in the expression for q equals 0 if κ = 0. Because all players play identically under the proﬁle, the payoff to player 1 under the proﬁle equals that of any player i, i = 2, . . . , N. If (7.2.16) is satisﬁed, the proﬁle describes a PPE, and the payoff in state wE is, from (7.2.17), V (wE ) = 2 −

1−p . (p − q)

(7.8.1)

Suppose we ﬁrst ﬁx N . Then, for sufﬁciently small ε, (7.2.16) is only satisﬁed for κ = 0 (if κ ≥ 1, limε→0 q = 1) and limε→0 V (wE ) = 2. In other words, irrespective of the number of players, for arbitrarily accurate monitoring all players essentially receive a payoff of 2 under this proﬁle. Suppose we now ﬁx ε > 0, and consider increasing N. Observe ﬁrst that if κ = 0, then for large N it is too easy to “fail the test,” that is, limN→∞ p = 0. From (7.8.1), we immediately get an upper bound less than 1. By appropriately increasing κ as N increases, one could hope to keep p not too small. However, although that is certainly possible, it turns out that irrespective of how κ is determined, p − q will go to 0. For ﬁxed κ and player i, we have p−q =

κ−1 τ =1

(N − 1) (N − 2)! −1 ε τ (1 − ε)N −1−τ (N − 1 − τ ) τ !(N − 2 − τ )! −

κ+1 τ =1

(N − 2)! ε τ (1 − ε)N−1−τ (τ − 1)!(N − 1 − τ )!

(N − 2)! ε κ (1 − ε)N −2−κ (1 − 2ε) = κ!(N − 2 − κ)! = Pr(player i is pivotal)(1 − 2ε). Observe that Pr(player i is pivotal) is the probability b(κ, N − 2, ε) that there are exactly κ successes under a binomial distribution with N − 2 draws. It is bounded above by maxk b(k, N − 2, ε), and therefore for ﬁxed ε, p − q → 0 as N → ∞. Consequently, for sufﬁciently large N , (7.2.16) fails and the only symmetric equilibrium (of the type considered here) for large N has players choosing S in every period (as predicted by the model with small anonymous players, see remark 2.7.1). Given the imperfection in monitoring, with a large population, even though there is a separate signal for each player, the chance that any single player will be pivotal in determining the transition to permanent shirking is small, and so each imperfectly monitored player can effectively ignore the future and myopically optimizes. We restricted attention to strongly symmetric PPE, but a similar result holds in general. We can thus view short-lived players as a continuum of small, anonymous, long-lived players, recognizing that this is an approximation of a world in which such players are relatively plentiful relative to the imperfection in the monitoring. A more complete discussion can be found in Al-Najjar and Smorodinsky (2001); Fudenberg, Levine, and Pesendorfer (1998); Levine and Pesendorfer (1995); Green (1980); and Sabourian (1990).

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8 Bounding Perfect Public Equilibrium Payoffs

The observation that the set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs E (δ) is the largest self-generating set does not provide a simple technique for characterizing the set. We now describe a technique that allows us to bound, and for large δ completely characterize, the set of PPE payoffs.1

8.1

Decomposing on Half-Spaces

It is helpful to begin with ﬁgure 8.1.1. We have seen in section 7.3 that every payoff v ∈ E (δ) is decomposed by some action proﬁle α (such as the pure-action proﬁle a in the ﬁgure) and continuation payoffs γ (y) ∈ E (δ). Recall from remark 7.3.1 that u(α) will often denote the vector of stage-game payoffs for long-lived players, a practice we follow in this chapter. To bound E (δ), we are clearly interested in the boundary points of E (δ) (unlike the v in the ﬁgure). Consider a boundary point v ∈ E (δ) decomposed by a non–stagegame Nash equilibrium action proﬁle (such as a in the ﬁgure). Moreover, for simplicity, suppose that v is in fact a boundary point of the convex hull of E (δ), coE (δ). Then, the continuations (some of which must differ from v ) lie in a convex set (coE (δ)) that can be separated from both v and u(a) by the supporting hyperplane to v on coE (δ). That is, the continuations lie in a half-space whose boundary is given by the supporting hyperplane. Because F † is the convex hull of F , a compact set, it is the intersection of the closed half-spaces containing F (Rockafellar 1970, corollary 11.5.1 or theorem 18.8). Now, for any direction λ ∈ Rn \ {0}, the smallest half-space containing F † is given by {v : λ · v ≤ maxα∈B λ · u(α)}. In other words, because E (δ) ⊂ F † , E (δ) is contained in the intersection over λ of the half-spaces {v : λ · v ≤ maxα∈B λ · u(α)}. This bound on E (δ) ignores decomposability constraints. The set of payoffs decomposable on a general set W (such as E (δ)) is complicated to describe (as we discuss just before proposition 7.3.4, even the weak property of monotonicity of E (δ) is not guaranteed). On the other hand, the set of payoffs decomposable on a half-space has a particularly simple dependence on δ, allowing us to describe the smallest half-space respecting the decomposability constraints independently of δ. 1. The essentials of the characterization are due to Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin (1994) and Fudenberg and Levine (1994), with a reﬁnement by Kandori and Matsushima (1998). Some similar ideas appear in Matsushima (1989).

273

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E

Figure 8.1.1 The payoff v ∈ E (δ) is decomposable by a on E (δ). There are

three public signals, Y = {y1 , y2 , y3 }, and E[γ (y) | a] = γ (y )ρ(y | a). Note that u(a) ∈ E (δ), and so a is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game.

Given a direction λ ∈ Rn and constant k ∈ R, H (λ, k) denotes the half-space {v ∈ λ · v ≤ k}. In ﬁgure 8.1.2, we have chosen a direction λ so that v is decomposable on the half-space H (λ, λ · v) using the equilibrium continuations from ﬁgure 8.1.1. In general, of course, when a payoff is decomposed on a half-space there is no guarantee that the continuations are equilibrium, or even feasible, continuations. Recall that B(W ; δ, α) is the set of payoffs that can be decomposed by α on W , when the discount factor is δ. For ﬁxed λ and α, let2 Rn :

k ∗ (α, λ, δ) = maxv λ · v subject to v ∈ B(H (λ, λ · v); δ, α).

(8.1.1)

The pair (v, γ ) illustrated in ﬁgure 8.1.2 does not solve this linear program for the indicated λ and α = a, because moving all quantities toward u(a) would increase λ · v while not losing enforceability. Intuitively, v’s in the interior of E (δ) cannot solve this problem. We will see in section 9.1, in the limit (as δ → 1), boundary points of E (δ) do solve this problem in many cases. The linear programming nature of (8.1.1) can be seen most clearly by noting that the constraint v ∈ B(H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) is equivalent to the existence of γ : Y → Rn satisfying vi = (1 − δ)ui (α) + δE[γi (y) | α],

∀i,

vi ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , α−i ) + δE[γi (y) | (ai , α−i )],

∀ai ∈ Ai , ∀i,

and λ · v ≥ λ · γ (y),

∀y ∈ Y.

2. As usual, if the constraint set is empty, the value is −∞. It is clear from the characterization of B (H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) given by (8.1.2)–(8.1.4) that both B (H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) is closed and {λ · v : v ∈ B (H (λ, λ · v); δ, α)} is bounded above, ensuring the maximum exists.

8.1

■

275

Decomposing on Half-Spaces

H (λ , λ ⋅ v )

E (δ )

u (a )

λ

γ ( y1 ) v

γ ( y2 ) E[γ ( y ) | a ] u (a′)

γ ( y3 )

Figure 8.1.2 Illustration of decomposability on half-spaces. The payoff

v ∈ E (δ) is decomposable with respect to a and the half space H (λ, λ · v).

By setting xi (y) = δ(γi (y)−vi )/(1−δ), we can characterize B(H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) independently of the discount factor δ, that is, v ∈ B(H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) if and only if there exists x : Y → Rn satisfying vi = ui (α) + E[xi (y) | α],

∀i

(8.1.2)

vi ≥ ui (ai , α−i ) + E[xi (y) | (ai , α−i )],

∀ai ∈ Ai , ∀i,

(8.1.3)

and 0 ≥ λ · x(y),

∀y ∈ Y.

(8.1.4)

We call x : Y → Rn the normalized continuations. If x satisﬁes (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) for some v, we say x enforces α, and if, in addition, (8.1.4) is satisﬁed for some λ, we say x enforces α in the direction λ. If x satisﬁes (8.1.2)–(8.1.4) with λ · x(y) = 0 for all y, we say x orthogonally enforces α (in the direction λ). Suppose λi > 0 for all i and α is orthogonally enforced by x. Then for each y, xi (y) cannot be the same sign for all i; if xi (y) > 0, so that i is “rewarded” after signal y, then there must be some other player j who is “punished,” xj (y) < 0. In other words, orthogonal enforceability typically involves a transfer of continuations from some players to other players, with λ determining the “transfer price.” The unnormalized continuations are given by γi (y) = vi + xi (y)(1 − δ)/δ,

∀y ∈ Y,

(8.1.5)

where v = u(α) + E[x | α]. If x enforces α in the direction λ, then the associated γ from (8.1.5) enforces α with respect to the hyperplane H (λ, λ · v). Recall that ej denotes the j th standard basis vector. A direction λ is a coordinate direction if λ = λi ei for some constant λi = 0 and some i. A direction λ is ij -pairwise if there are two players, i = j , such that λ = λi ei + λj ej , λi = 0, λj = 0; denote such a direction by λij .

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

Lemma 1. k ∗ (α, λ, δ) is independent of δ, and so can be written as k ∗ (α, λ).

8.1.1 2. k ∗ (α, λ) ≤ λ · u(α), so that u(α) ∈ intH (λ, k ∗ (α, λ)); and 3. k ∗ (α, λ) = λ · u(α) if α is orthogonally enforced in the direction λ. Moreover, when ρ(y | α) > 0 for all y ∈ Y , this sufﬁcient condition is also necessary. 4. If, for all pairwise directions λij , α is orthogonally enforceable in the direction λij , then α is orthogonally enforceable in all noncoordinate directions.

Proof 1. Immediate from the equivalence of the constraint in (8.1.1) and (8.1.2)–(8.1.4).

2. Let v ∗ solve (8.1.1). Then, k ∗ (α, λ) = λ · v ∗ = λ · (u(α) + E[x ∗ (y) | α]), where x ∗ satisﬁes (8.1.2)–(8.1.4), so that in particular, λ · x ∗ (y) ≤ 0. 3. Sufﬁciency is immediate. For necessity, observe that if k ∗ (α, λ) = λ · u(α), then E[λ · x ∗ (y) | α] = 0, where x ∗ is an enforcing normalized continuation solving (8.1.2)–(8.1.4). Necessity then follows from (8.1.4) and ρ(y | α) > 0 for all y ∈ Y . 4. Consider ﬁrst a direction λ with four nonzero coordinates, {i, j, k, }. Let λij ≡ λi ei + λj ej be the pairwise direction reﬂecting the i − j coordinates, and λk the pairwise direction reﬂecting the k − coordinates. Let x ij and x k be the enforcing normalized continuations for the pairwise directions λij and λk . By assumption, λij · x ij = 0 and λk · x k = 0. Let x denote the normalized continuation, ij xm , if m = i, j , k , if m = k, , xm (y) = xm x ij , otherwise. m

Then, (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) are satisﬁed, and λ · x = (λij + λk ) · x = 0. This argument can clearly be extended to cover an even number of nonzero coordinates. Suppose now the direction λ has three nonzero coordinates, {i, j, k}. Now let ij λ = λi ei + 12 λj ej and λjk = 12 λj ej + λk ek . Let x ij and x jk be the enforcing normalized continuations for the pairwise directions λij and λjk . In this case, we let x denote the normalized continuation, ij xi , 1 (x ij + x jk ), j xm (y) = 2 jk j x , k ij xm ,

if m = i, if m = j , if m = k, otherwise.

Then, we again have (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) satisﬁed and λ · x = (λij + λjk ) · x = 0. For a general odd number of nonzero coordinates, we apply this argument for three nonzero coordinates, and the previous argument to the remaining even number of nonzero coordinates. ■

Intuitively, we would like to approximate E (δ) by the half-spaces H (λ, k ∗ (α, λ)). However, as is clear from ﬁgure 8.1.2, we need to choose α appropriately. In particular, we can only move v toward u(a) (and so include more of E (δ)) because u(a) is

8.1

■

Decomposing on Half-Spaces

277

separated from the half-space containing the enforcing continuations γ . The action proﬁle a does not yield an appropriate approximating half-space for the displayed choice of λ, because by lemma 8.1.1(2), the enforcing continuations need to lie in a lower half-space, excluding much of E (δ). Accordingly, for each direction, we use the action proﬁle that maximizes k ∗ (α, λ), that is, set k ∗ (λ) ≡ supα∈B k ∗ (α, λ) and H ∗ (λ) ≡ H (λ, k ∗ (λ)).3 We refer to H ∗ (λ) as the maximal half-space in the direction λ. The coordinate direction λ = −ej corresponds to minimizing player j ’s payoff, because −ej · v = −vj . The next lemma shows that any payoff proﬁle in the half-space H ∗ (−ej ) is weakly individually rational for player j . Note that vj is the minmax payoff of (2.7.1). Lemma For all j ,

k ∗ (−ej ) ≤ −vj = − minα∈B maxaj uj aj , α−j .

8.1.2

Proof For λ = −ej , constraint (8.1.4) becomes xj (y) ≥ 0 for all y ∈ Y . Constraint

(8.1.3) then implies vj ≥ uj (aj , α−j ) for all aj , and so vj ≥ maxaj uj (aj , α−j ). In other words, v ∈ B(H (−ej , −vj ); δ, α) implies vj ≥ maxaj uj (aj , α−j ). Then, k ∗ (−ej ) = supα∈B k ∗ (α, −ej ) = supα∈B maxv {−vj : v ∈ B(H (−ej , −vj ); δ, α)} ≤ − minα∈B maxaj uj (ai , α−i ) = −vj . ■

Proposition For all δ,

8.1.1

E (δ) ⊂ ∩λ H ∗ (λ) ≡ M ⊂ F ∗ .

Proof Suppose the ﬁrst inclusion fails. Then there exists a half-space H (λ, k ∗ (λ)) and a

point v ∈ E (δ) with λ · v > k ∗ (λ). Let v ∗ maximize λ · v over v ∈ E (δ). Because λ · v ≤ λ · v ∗ for all v ∈ E (δ), v ∗ is decomposable on H (λ, λ · v ∗ ), implying k ∗ (λ) ≥ λ · v ∗ , a contradiction. It is a standard result from convex analysis that the convex hull of a compact set is the intersection of the closed half-spaces containing the set (Rockafellar 1970, corollary 11.5.1 or theorem 18.8). The inclusion of M in F ∗ , the set of feasible and weakly individually rational payoffs, is then an immediate implication of lemmas 8.1.1 and 8.1.2, because k ∗ (λ) ≡ supα∈B k ∗ (α, λ) ≤ supα∈B λ · u(α). ■

Each half-space is convex and the arbitrary intersection of convex sets is convex, so M also bounds the convex hull of E (δ). The bound M is crude for small δ, because it is independent of δ. However, as we will see in section 9.1, provided M has non-empty interior, limδ→1 E (δ) = M . 3. As half-spaces are not compact, it is not obvious that k ∗ (α, λ) is upper semicontinuous in α. Note that k ∗ (λ) > −∞, and so H ∗ (λ) = ∅ for all λ: let v ∗ maximize λ · v over v ∈ E (δ). Because λ · v ≤ λ · v ∗ for all v ∈ E (δ), v ∗ is decomposable on H (λ, λ · v ∗ ).

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

Remark Interpretation of k ∗ (λ) For a direction λ, we can interpret λ · u as the “average”

8.1.1 utility of all players in the direction λ. Given lemma 8.1.1, we can interpret k ∗ (λ) as a bound on the “average” utility consistent with providing each player appropriate incentives (and section 9.1 shows that this bound is typically achieved for patient players). If k ∗ (λ) = k ∗ (α, λ) for some α orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ, then it is costless to provide the appropriate incentives in aggregate, in the sense that λ · x(y) = 0 for all y (lemma 8.1.1). That is, it is possible to simultaneously provide incentives to all players by appropriately transferring continuations without lowering average utility below λ · u(α). On the other hand, if there is no α orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ for which k ∗ (λ) = k ∗ (α, λ), then it is costly to provide the appropriate incentives in aggregate, in the sense that λ · x(y) < 0 for some y. Moreover, if y has positive probability under α, this cost has an impact in that it is impossible to simultaneously provide incentives to all players without lowering average utility below λ · u(α). ◆

Remark Pure strategy PPE Recall that E p (δ) is the set of pure strategy PPE payoffs

8.1.2 (remark 7.3.3). The analysis in this section applies to pure strategy PPE. In particular, we immediately have the following pure strategy version of lemma 8.1.2 and proposition 8.1.1. Proposition Let k ∗p (λ) ≡ sup{k ∗ (α, λ) : αi is pure for i = 1, . . . , n} and H ∗p ≡ H (λ, k ∗p (λ)).

8.1.2 Then, k ∗p (−ej ) ≤ −vi

p

and, for all δ, E p (δ) ⊂ ∩λ H ∗p (λ) ≡ M p . ◆

8.2

The Inefﬁciency of Strongly Symmetric Equilibria

The bound in proposition 8.1.1 immediately implies the pervasive inefﬁciency of strongly symmetric equilibria in symmetric games with full-support public monitoring. Definition Suppose there are no short-lived players. The stage game is symmetric if all

8.2.1 players have the same action space and same ex post payoff function (Ai = Aj and u∗i = u∗j for all i, j ), and the distribution ρ over the public signal is unaffected by permutation of player indices. From (7.1.1), ex ante payoffs in a symmetric game are also appropriately symmetric. Recall from deﬁnition 7.1.2 that an equilibrium is strongly symmetric if after every public history, each player chooses the same action. In a strongly symmetric PPE, xi (y) = xj (y) for all y ∈ Y . For the remainder of this subsection, we restrict attention to such symmetric normalized continuations. Lemma 8.1.1 and proposition 8.1.1 hold under this restriction (E (δ) is now the set of strongly symmetric PPE payoffs). Because the continuations are symmetric, without loss of generality, we can restrict attention to directions 1 and −1, where 1 is an n-vector with 1 in each coordinate.

8.2

■

279

Strongly Symmetric Equilibria

Let u¯ ≡ maxα1 u1 (α1 1) denote the maximum symmetric payoff. Proposition Suppose there are no short-lived players, the stage game is ﬁnite and symmetric,

8.2.1 ρ has full support, and u¯ is not a Nash equilibrium payoff of the ex ante stage game. The maximum strongly symmetric PPE payoff, v(δ), ¯ is bounded away from u, ¯ independently of δ (i.e., ∃ε > 0 such that ∀δ ∈ [0, 1), v(δ) ¯ + ε < u). ¯ The inefﬁciency of strongly symmetric equilibria should not be surprising: If u¯ is not a stage-game equilibrium payoff, for any α¯ satisfying u¯ = u(α), ¯ each player i needs an incentive to play α¯ i , which requires a lower continuation after some signal. But strong symmetry implies that every player must be punished at the same time, and full support that the punishment occurs on the equilibrium path, so inefﬁciency arises. A little more formally, suppose k ∗ (α¯ 1 1, 1) = nu¯ for some α¯ 1 . Inequality (8.1.4) and strong symmetry imply xi (y) ≤ 0 for all y. The deﬁnition of u¯ then implies E[xi (y) | α¯ 1 1] = 0. Full support of ρ ﬁnally implies xi (y) = 0 for all y, implying α¯ 1 is a best reply to α¯ 1 1, contradicting the hypothesis that u¯ is not a Nash equilibrium payoff of the ex ante stage game. The argument just given, though intuitive, relies on supα1 k ∗ (α1 1, 1) being attained by some α1 . The proof must deal with the general possibility that the supremum is not attained (see note 3 on page 277). Proof We now suppose the supremum in the deﬁnition of k ∗ is not achieved, and derive

¯ Because k ∗ (1) = supα1 k ∗ (α1 1, 1), for all ∈ N, a contradiction to k ∗ (1) = nu. ∗ there exists α1 such that k (α1 1, 1) ≥ nu¯ − n/. We write α = α1 1. Because A1 is ﬁnite, by extracting a subsequence if necessary, without loss of generality we can assume {α1 } is a convergent sequence with limit α1∞ . Let a1 be ∞ ) over a ∈ supp(α ∞ ). By the deﬁnition of u, ¯ an action minimizing u1 (a1 , α−1 1 1 ∞ ∞ ¯ For sufﬁciently large , supp(α1∞ ) ⊂ supp(α1 ), so u1 (a1 , α−1 ) ≤ u1 (α1 1) ≤ u. we can also assume a1 is in the support α1 . Finally, by extracting a subsequence ) ≤ u (a , α ∞ ) + 1/. and renumbering if necessary, u1 (a1 , α−1 1 1 −1 Because α1 (a1 ) > 0, u¯ −

1 1 ≤ k ∗ (α1 1, 1) = u1 (a1 , α−1 ) + E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 )], n

(8.2.1)

where x is the normalized enforcing continuation in the direction 1 (so that x1 (y) ≤ 0 for all y). Then, for all , −

2 ≤ E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 )] ≤ 0.

(8.2.2)

For ﬁxed , (8.1.3) is ) + E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 )] u1 (a1 , α−1 ≥ u1 (a1 , α−1 ) + E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 )],

∀a1 ∈ A1 .

(8.2.3)

)] = 0 and (using x (y) ≤ 0), Inequality (8.2.2) implies lim E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 1 for all , 2 ρ(y | (a1 , a−1 ))α−1 (a−1 ) ≤ 0. − ≤ x1 (y) a −1

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

As ρ has full support (by hypothesis), and ρ ≡ miny,a {ρ(y | a)} > 0 (by the ﬁniteness of Y and A), we thus have for all and all a1 ∈ A1 , −

2 ≤ x1 (y) ρ(y | (a1 , a−1 ))α−1 (a−1 ) ≤ 0. ρ a −1

)] = 0 for all a ∈ A , and so taking → ∞ in Hence, lim E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 1 1 (8.2.1) and (8.2.3) yields ∞ ∞ ) ≥ u1 (a1 , α−1 ), u¯ = u1 (a1 , α−1

∀a1 ∈ A1 .

Consequently, α1∞ 1 is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, and so u¯ is a Nash equilibrium payoff, contradiction. ■

8.3

Short-Lived Players

8.3.1 The Upper Bound on Payoffs The techniques of this chapter provide an alternative proof of proposition 2.7.2. Lemma For j = 1, . . . , n,

8.3.1

k ∗ (ej ) ≤ v¯j ≡ maxα∈B minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ).

Proof For λ = ej , constraint (8.1.4) becomes xj (y) ≤ 0 for all y ∈ Y . Constraints (8.1.2)

and (8.1.3) imply, for all aj ∈ supp(αj ), vj = uj (aj , α−j ) + E[xj (y) | (aj , α−j )], and so vj ≤ uj (aj , α−j ). Hence, k ∗ (ej ) = sup k ∗ (α, ej ) = sup max{vj : v ∈ B(H (ej , vj ); δ, α)} α∈B

≤ sup

α∈B

min

α∈B aj ∈supp(αj )

uj (aj , α−j ) = max

min

α∈B aj ∈supp(αj )

uj (aj , α−j ). ■

Note that in the absence of short-lived players, B = i (Ai ) and k ∗ (ej ) = maxα∈ i (Ai ) minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ) = maxα∈ i (Ai ) uj (α). Lemma 8.3.1, with proposition 8.1.1 (implying that every PPE equilibrium payoff for a long-lived player j is bounded above by k ∗ (ej )), implies proposition 2.7.2: Because E (δ) ⊂ H ∗ (ej ), in every PPE no long-run player can earn a payoff greater than v¯j . Moreover, in the presence of imperfect public monitoring, the bound v¯i may not be tight. It is straightforward to show for the example of section 7.6.2, that k ∗ (e1 ) = v ∗ < v¯1 , an instance of the next section’s result. It is worth emphasizing that with short-lived players, the case of one long-lived player is interesting and the analysis of this chapter (and the next) applies. In that case, of course, the only directions to be considered are e1 and −e1 .

8.3

■

281

Short-Lived Players

8.3.2 Binding Moral Hazard From lemma 8.3.1, the presence of short-lived players constrains the set of longlived players’ payoffs that can be achieved in equilibrium. Moreover, as we saw in section 7.6.2, for the product-choice game with a short-lived player 2 and imperfect public monitoring, the imperfection in the monitoring necessarily further reduced the maximum equilibrium payoff that player 1 could receive. This phenomenon is not special to that example but arises more broadly and for reasons similar to those leading to the inefﬁciency of strongly symmetric equilibria (proposition 8.2.1). We provide a simple sufﬁcient condition implying that player i’s maximum equilibrium payoff for all δ is bounded away from v¯i , the upper bound from lemma 8.3.1. Definition Player i is subject to binding moral hazard if for all a−i , for all ai ,ai ,

8.3.1 suppρ(y | (ai , a−i )) = suppρ(y | (ai , a−i )), and for any α ∈ B satisfying ui (α) = v¯i , αi is not a best reply to α−i .

The ﬁrst condition implies there is no signal that unambiguously indicates that player i has deviated. The second condition then guarantees that player i’s incentive constraint due to moral hazard is binding. Fudenberg and Levine (1994) say a game with short-lived players is a moral-hazard mixing game if it has a product structure (see section 9.5) and all long-lived players are subject to binding moral hazard. Proposition Suppose a long-lived player i is subject to binding moral hazard, and A is ﬁnite.

8.3.1 Then, k ∗ (ei ) < v¯i . Consequently, there exists κ > 0 such that for all δ and all v ∈ E (δ), vi ≤ v¯i − κ.

Proof Though the result is intuitive, the proof must deal with the general possibility that

supα k ∗ (α, ei ) is not attained by any α (see note 3 on page 277). We assume here the supremum is attained; the proof for the more general case is a straightforward modiﬁcation of the proof of proposition 8.2.1. ¯ ei ) = v¯i for some α¯ ∈ B. Let ai minimize ui (ai , α¯ −i ) So, we suppose k ∗ (α, over ai ∈ supp(α¯ i ). Then, by the deﬁnition of v¯i , v¯i ≥ ui (ai , α¯ −i ). Because α¯ is enforced in the direction ei by some x, xi (y) ≤ 0 for all y and ¯ ei ) = ui (ai , α¯ −i ) + E[xi (y) | (ai , α¯ −i )] v¯i = k ∗ (α, ≤ ui (ai , α¯ −i ) ≤ v¯i .

Hence, xi (y) = 0 for all y ∈ suppρ(· | (ai , α¯ −i )). Because suppρ(· | (ai , α¯ −i )) is independent of ai ∈ Ai , α¯ i must be a best reply to α¯ −i , contradicting the hypothesis that player i is subject to binding moral hazard. ■

The inefﬁciency due to binding moral hazard arises for similar reasons to the inefﬁciency of strongly symmetric PPE (indeed, the proofs are very similar). In both cases, in the “target” action proﬁle α, ¯ player i’s action is not a best reply to α¯ −i , and achieving the target payoff requires orthogonal enforceability of the target proﬁle in the relevant direction, a contradiction. Remark Role of short-lived players In the absence of short-lived players, B = i (Ai ), 8.3.1 and v¯i = maxa∈A ui (a), so that player i can never be subject to binding moral

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

E

S

E

2, 2

−c, b

S

b, −c

0, 0

Figure 8.4.1 The prisoners’ dilemma from ﬁgure 2.5.1, where b > 2, c > 0, and 0 < b − c < 4.

hazard. If player i is subject to binding moral hazard, the payoff v¯i can only be achieved if player i is not playing a best reply to the behavior of the other players, and so incentives must be provided. But this involves a lower normalized continuation with positive probability, and so player i’s payoffs in any PPE are bounded away from v¯i . ◆

8.4

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

8.4.1 Bounds on Efficiency: Pure Actions Our ﬁrst application of these tools is to investigate the potential inefﬁciency of PPE in the repeated prisoners’ dilemma. We return to the prisoners’ dilemma from ﬁgure 2.5.1 (reproduced in ﬁgure 8.4.1) and the monitoring distribution (7.2.1), p, ρ(y¯ | a) = q, r,

if a = EE, if a = SE or ES, if a = SS,

where 0 < q < p < 1 and 0 < r < p. An indication of the potential inefﬁciency of PPE can be obtained by considering H ∗ (λ) for λi ≥ 0. From proposition 8.1.1, H ∗ (λ) is a bound on E (δ), and in particular, for all v ∈ E (δ), λ · v ≤ k ∗ (λ). In particular, for λˆ = (1, 1), if k ∗ (λˆ ) < 4, then all PPE are bounded away from the maximum aggregate payoff. Moreover, if k ∗ (λˆ ) < 2(b + c)/(2 + c), then all PPE are necessarily inefﬁcient, and are bounded away from efﬁciency for all δ (see ﬁgure 8.4.2). We ﬁrst consider the pure action proﬁle ES. Equations (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) reduce to ¯ ≥ x1 (y) + x1 (y)

c q −r

x2 (y) ¯ ≤ x2 (y) +

b−2 . p−q

and

Setting x1 (y) ¯ = c/[2(q − r)] and x1 (y) = −c/[2(q − r)], with x2 (y) = −λ1 x1 (y)/λ2 for y = y, y, ¯ yields normalized continuations that orthogonally enforce ES. Hence, k ∗ (ES, λ) = λ2 b − λ1 c. Symmetrically, we also have k ∗ (SE, λ) = λ1 b − λ2 c.

8.4

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283

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

( −c, b) 2(b + c)

(2,2)

( 2 + c)

(0,0) 2( b + c )

( 2 + c)

( b, − c )

Figure 8.4.2 The set of feasible payoffs for the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 8.4.1. If v1 + v2 < 2(b + c)/(2 + c), then v is in the shaded region and is necessarily inefﬁcient.

For EE, (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) imply xi (y) ¯ − xi (y) ≥ (b − 2)/(p − q), and consequently, the proﬁle cannot be orthogonally enforced. Then, ¯ + (1 − p)x(y)) λ · (u(EE) + E[x | EE]) = (λ1 + λ2 )2 + λ · (px(y) ¯ − (1 − p)(x(y) ¯ − x(y))) = (λ1 + λ2 )2 + λ · (x(y) ¯ − x(y)) ≤ (λ1 + λ2 )2 − (1 − p)λ · (x(y) (1 − p)(b − 2) ≤ (λ1 + λ2 ) 2 − (p − q) ¯ ≡ (λ1 + λ2 )v.

(8.4.1)

Setting xi (y) ¯ = 0 and xi (y) = −(b − 2)/(p − q) for i = 1, 2 enforces EE and ¯ achieves the upper bound just calculated. Hence, k ∗ (EE, λ) = (λ1 + λ2 )v. We are now in a position to study the inefﬁciency of pure-strategy PPE. From proposition 8.1.2, for all pure strategy PPE payoffs v, λ · v ≤ k ∗p (λ) = max{k ∗ (EE, λ), k ∗ (ES, λ), k ∗ (SE, λ)} (we omit the action proﬁle SS, because k ∗ (SS, λ) = 0 and this is clearly less than one of the other three expressions for λi > 0). Because k ∗ (ES, λ) ≥ k ∗ (SE, λ) if and only if λ2 ≥ λ1 , we restrict our analysis to λ2 ≥ λ1 and the comparison of k ∗ (ES, λ) with k ∗ (EE, λ) (with symmetry covering the other case). If b−c ≥ v, ¯ 2

(8.4.2)

then for all λ2 ≥ λ1 , k ∗ (ES, λ) ≥ k ∗ (EE, λ), and all pure strategy PPE payoffs must fall into that part of the shaded region below the line connecting (−c, b) and (b, −c), in ﬁgure 8.4.2.

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

(v , v )

(2,2)

( − c, b )

λ′

(0,0) (b,−c) Figure 8.4.3 A bounding set for E p (δ) when (8.4.2) does not hold. Every

pure strategy PPE payoff vector must fall into the shaded region.

On the other hand, if (8.4.2) does not hold, then k ∗ (ES, λˆ ) < k ∗ (EE, λˆ ) for some ˆ Because k ∗ (ES, λ) > k ∗ (EE, λ) for λ1 close to 0, there is a direction λ such that λ. k ∗ (ES, λ ) = k ∗ (EE, λ ), and so all pure strategy PPE must fall into the shaded region in ﬁgure 8.4.3. Clearly, independently of (8.4.2), pure strategy PPE payoffs are bounded away from the Pareto frontier and so are necessarily inefﬁcient. The reason for the failure is intuitive: Note ﬁrst that efﬁciency requires EE be played. With only two signals and a symmetric monitoring structure, it is impossible to distinguish between a deviation to S by player 1 from that of player 2, leading to a failure of orthogonal enforceability. Hence when providing incentives when the target action proﬁle is EE, the continuations are necessarily inefﬁcient. The pure strategy folk theorems for repeated games with public monitoring exclude this example (as they must) by assuming there are sufﬁcient signals to distinguish between deviations of different players. We illustrate this in section 8.4.4. 8.4.2 Bounds on Efficiency: Mixed Actions We now consider mixed-action proﬁles and, for tractability, focus on the direction λˆ = (1, 1). Just like EE, many (but not necessarily all) mixed proﬁles fail to be orthogonally enforceable. The critical feature is whether action choices by 1 can be distinguished from those by 2. Given a mixed action αj for player j , player i’s choice of S implies ρ(y¯ | Sαj ) = αj q + (1 − αj )r, and i’s choice of E implies ρ(y¯ | Eαj ) = αj p + (1 − αj )q. Thus, if ρ(y¯ | Sαj ) < ρ(y¯ | Eαj ), theny is a signal that player i had played S. Suppose that for some αi , we also have ρ(y¯ | Sαi ) > ρ(y¯ | Eαi ) (this is only possible if q < r). Then, y is not also a signal that j had played S, and so it should be possible at α = (αi , αj ) to separately provide incentives for i and j (similar to the discussion for ES).

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The Prisoners’ Dilemma

Let A be the set of mixed-action proﬁles α that have full support and under which the signals distinguish between the players, that is, ρ(y¯ | Sαi ) < ρ(y¯ | Eαi )

and

ρ(y¯ | Sαj ) > ρ(y¯ | Eαj ),

i = j.

(8.4.3)

The action proﬁles in A are asymmetric: The asymmetry in the interpretation of signals, captured by (8.4.3), requires asymmetry in the underlying behavior. The set A is nonempty if and only if q < r. We now argue that some (but not all) α ∈ A can be orthogonally enforced in the direction λˆ . Because α has full support, (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) imply the equations i, j = 1, 2, j = i, ¯ − xi (y)) αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c = [ρ(y¯ | Eαj ) − ρ(y¯ | Sαj )](xi (y) ¯ − xi (y)). = [αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r)](xi (y)

(8.4.4)

The left side is necessarily positive, so the right side must also be positive. Orthogonality implies that xi (y) and xj (y) are either both 0 or of opposite sign. When (8.4.3) holds, it is also possible to choose the normalized continuations so that the sign of ¯ − xi (y) is the reverse of [ρ(y¯ | Eαj ) − ρ(y¯ | Sαj )] for both players. xi (y) Orthogonal enforceability in the direction λˆ requires more than a sign reversal, because it requires x2 (y) = −x1 (y), or α1 (b − 2) + (1 − α1 )c α2 (b − 2) + (1 − α2 )c =− . α1 (p − q) + (1 − α1 )(q − r) α2 (p − q) + (1 − α2 )(q − r)

(8.4.5)

Let g(αi ) be the reciprocal of the term on the left side, that is, g(αi ) =

αi (p − q) + (1 − αi )(q − r) . αi (b − 2) + (1 − αi )c

(8.4.6)

From (8.4.3), q < r, and so g(0) < 0 and g(1) > 0. Therefore there is some value of αi , say αˆ i , for which g(αˆ i ) = 0. Because the denominator is always positive, and the numerator is afﬁne in αi , there is a function h(αi ), h(αˆ i ) = αˆ i , such that for a range of values of αi containing αˆ i , g(h(αi )) = −g(αi ). Hence, (8.4.5) holds for all α ∈ A ∗ ≡ {α ∈ A : h(αi ) = αj }, and so for such α, k ∗ (α, λˆ ) = u1 (α) + u2 (α). Therefore if A = ∅, A ∗ = ∅ and ˆ ≥ sup u1 (α) + u2 (α). k ∗ (λ) α∈A ∗

Section 8.4.5 illustrates the use of this lower bound. On the other hand, we trivially have the upper bound, k ∗ (α, λˆ ) ≤ u1 (α) + u2 (α). For later reference, we deﬁne κ ∗ = sup u1 (α) + u2 (α), α∈A

where (as usual) κ ∗ = −∞ if A is empty.

(8.4.7)

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Example Suppose b = 3 and c = 2, and p − q = r − q > 0. It is easy to calculate that

8.4.1 A = (α1 , α2 ) : 12 − α1 12 − α2 < 0 , αˆ i = 12 , h(αi ) =

4 − 5αi , 5 − 4αi

and A ∗ = {α ∈ A : αj = h(αi )}. While (1/2, 1/2) ∈ A , limαi →1/2 h(αi ) = 1/2, and we have sup u1 (α) + u2 (α) = u1 12 , 12 + u2 12 , 12 = 32 . α∈A ∗

Note that if (8.4.2) holds, then the lower bound on k ∗ (λˆ ) from asymmetric mixing in A ∗ is larger than the bound from any pure action proﬁle. ●

Finally, we consider mixed-action proﬁles not in A . In this case, signals do not distinguish between players, and so intuitively it is impossible to separately provide incentives. More formally, it is not possible to orthogonally enforce such proﬁles (this ¯ − xi (y), is immediate from the discussion following (8.4.4)). Letting xi ≡ xi (y) where j = i, we have {ui (α) + E[xi | α]} = {ui (α) + αi [αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r)]xi i

i

+ (αj q + (1 − αj )r)xi + xi (y)}. From (8.4.4), we thus have for full support α, {ui (α) + αi [αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c] k ∗ (α, λˆ ) = i

+ (αj q + (1 − αj )r)xi + xi (y)} {αj b + (αj q + (1 − αj )r)xi + xi (y)} = i

≤ {αj b − (1 − αj q − (1 − αj )r)xi }, i

¯ − xi } ≤ − i xi . Because where we used the inequality i xi (y) = i {xi (y) ¯ = 0 is a feasible choice for the normalized continuations and (8.4.4) then xi (y) determines xi (y), the inequality is an equality, and we have (1 − αj q − (1 − αj )r)(αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c) ∗ ˆ k (α, λ) = αj b − . αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r) j

ˆ Observe that the expression is separable in α1 and α2 , so that maximizing k ∗ (α, λ) over α ∈ A is equivalent to maximizing the expression, αj b −

(1 − αj q − (1 − αj )r)(αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c) , αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r)

which yields the maximum strongly symmetric payoff. For the case b = 3 and c = 1, this expression reduces to the function γ¯ given in (7.7.7). Let v SSE denote the maximum strongly symmetric payoff,

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The Prisoners’ Dilemma

v SSE = sup αj b − αj

(1 − αj q − (1 − αj )r)(αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c) . αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r)

ˆ = 2v¯ ≤ Evaluating the expression at αj = 1 yields v¯ of (8.4.1), and so k ∗ (EE, λ) SSE SSE > v. ¯ 2v . Section 7.7.2 discusses an example where v Summarizing the foregoing discussion, if v is a PPE payoff, then4 v1 + v2 ≤ max b − c, κ ∗ , 2v SSE ,

(8.4.8)

where κ ∗ is deﬁned in (8.4.7).

8.4.3 A Characterization with Two Signals We return to the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 7.2.1 (i.e., b = 3 and c = 1) with imperfect public monitoring. We now characterize M for the special case p − q = q − r of the monitoring distribution (7.2.1). As we saw in section 8.4.2, mixed actions can play a role in the determination of M . For the special case under study, however, the myopic incentives to shirk are independent of the actions of the other player. Moreover, because p − q = q − r, the impact on the distribution of signals is also independent of the actions of the other player. In terms of the analysis of the previous section, the expression determining v SSE is afﬁne in αi , so the best strongly symmetric equilibrium payoff is achieved in pure actions. In addition, A is empty because q > r. Consequently, we can restrict attention to pure-action proﬁles. Each player’s minmax value is 0, so lemma 8.1.2 implies that k ∗ (−ei ) ≤ 0. Moreover, because (S, S) is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, (0, 0) satisﬁes the 2. constraint in (8.1.1) for α = SS and λ. Consequently, k ∗ (−ei ) = 0, and so M ⊂ R+ By a similar argument, the maximal half-spaces in directions with λ1 , λ2 ≤ 0 impose no further restriction on M . We now consider directions λ with λ2 > 0 > λ1 . If −λ1 ≤ λ2 , the action proﬁle ES can be orthogonally enforced and so, by the third claim in lemma 8.1.1, k ∗ (λ) = λ · (−1, 3) = 3λ2 − λ1 . To obtain the normalized continuations satisfying (8.1.2)– (8.1.4), we ﬁrst solve (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) for player 1 as an equality with E[x1 | ES] = 0, giving ¯ = x1 (y)

(1 − q) , (q − r)

and

x1 (y) =

−q . (q − r)

We then set ¯ = x2 (y)

−λ1 x1 (y) ¯ λ2

and x2 (y) =

−λ1 x1 (y). λ2

4. We have not discussed asymmetric proﬁles in which only one player is randomizing. Observe, however, κ ∗ also bounds any such proﬁles in the closure of A . For any such proﬁles not in the closure of A , 2v SSE is still the relevant bound.

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By construction, λ · x(y) = 0. Finally,

−λ1 (p − q)[x2 (y) ¯ − x2 (y)] = (p − q) λ2

¯ − x1 (y)] [x1 (y)

¯ − x1 (y)] = 1, ≤ (q − r)[x1 (y) (using p − q = q − r and −λ1 ≤ λ2 ), and so (8.1.3) holds for player 2. On the other hand, if −λ1 > λ2 , the action proﬁle ES cannot be orthogonally enforced. In this case, k ∗ (ES, λ) is the maximum value of λ1 v1 + λ2 v2 for v with the property that there exists x satisfying ¯ + (1 − q)x1 (y) ≥ 0 + rx1 (y) ¯ + (1 − r)x1 (y), v1 = −1 + qx1 (y) ¯ + (1 − q)x2 (y) ≥ 2 + px2 (y) ¯ + (1 − p)x2 (y), v2 = 3 + qx2 (y) and 0 ≥ λ1 x1 (y) + λ2 x2 (y) for y = y, ¯ y. The ﬁrst two constraints imply, because λ1 < 0 and using p − q = q − r, ¯ + λ2 x2 (y) ¯ ≤ λ1 x1 (y) + λ2 x2 (y) + (λ1 + λ2 )/(q − r), λ1 x1 (y) so the last constraint implies k ∗ (ES, λ) ≤ −λ1 + 3λ2 + q(λ1 + λ2 )/(q − r).

(8.4.9)

The continuations x1 (y) = x2 (y) = 0 and x1 (y) ¯ = x2 (y) ¯ = 1/(q − r) satisfy the constraints, so the inequality in (8.4.9) is an equality. Because q/(q − r) > 1, k ∗ (ES, λ) < 0 for large |λ1 |, so k ∗ (ES, λ) < k ∗ (SS, λ) = 0. Consequently,5 k ∗ (λ) = max{k ∗ (ES, λ), k ∗ (SS, λ), k ∗ (EE, λ), k ∗ (SE, λ)} 3λ − λ1 , if 0 < −λ1 ≤ λ2 , 2 3λ − λ + q(λ + λ )/(q − r), if 0 < λ < −λ and 2 1 1 2 2 1 = 3λ − λ + q(λ 2 1 1 + λ2 )/(q − r) > 0, 0, otherwise. Hence, the upper left boundary of M is given by the line through (0, 0) perpendicular to the normal λ satisfying 3λ2 − λ1 + q(λ1 + λ2 )/(q − r) = 0, that is, given by x2 = [(4q − 3r)/r]x1 = [(2p − r)/r]x1 (the last equality uses p − q = q − r). Symmetrically, for 0 < −λ2 ≤ λ1 we also have 3λ − λ2 , if 0 < −λ2 ≤ λ1 , 1 3λ − λ + q(λ + λ )/(q − r), if 0 < λ < −λ and 1 2 2 1 1 2 k ∗ (λ) = 3λ − λ + q(λ 1 2 1 + λ2 )/(q − r) > 0, 0, otherwise. 5. It is immediate that k ∗ (EE, λ) ≤ 2(λ1 + λ2 ) < 0 and k ∗ (SE, λ) ≤ 3λ1 − λ2 < 0.

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The Prisoners’ Dilemma

u(E, S ) u(E, E ) slope = (2 p − r )

slope = r

r

(2 p − r )

u (S , S ) u(S , E ) Figure 8.4.4 The bounding set M when 2p − q ≤ 1.

It remains to solve for k ∗ (λ) when λ1 , λ2 ≥ 0. We apply the analysis from section 8.4.1. Condition (8.4.2) in the current setting reduces to 2p − q ≤ 1, and the maximal half-spaces can then always be obtained by using either ES or SE, that is, k ∗ (λ) = max{3λ2 − λ1 , 3λ1 − λ2 } for all λ. The bounding set M is illustrated in ﬁgure 8.4.4.6 On the other hand, if 2p − q > 1, then some maximal half-spaces (in particular, those with λ1 and λ2 close) require EE. For example, k ∗ (λ) = 2[2 − (1 − p)/(p − q)], when λ1 = λ2 = 1. This possibility is illustrated in ﬁgure 8.4.5. Observe that the symmetric upper bound we obtained here, 2 − (1 − p)/(p − q) on a player’s payoff, agrees with our earlier calculation yielding (7.7.1) in section 7.7.1, as it should. Moreover, for p and q satisfying 2p − q < 1, the best strongly symmetric PPE payoff is strictly smaller than the best symmetric PPE payoff (which is 1) for δ large (applying theorem 9.1.1). 8.4.4 Efficiency with Three Signals We now consider a modiﬁcation of the monitoring structure that does not preclude efﬁciency and (as an implication of theorem 9.1.1), yields all feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs as PPE payoffs for sufﬁciently large δ. ¯ whose distribution is The new monitoring structure has three signals y, y , and y, given by p , if a = EE, p, if a = EE, q , if a = SE, 1 ρ(y¯ | a) = q, if a = SE or ES, ρ(y | a) = q 2 , if a = ES, r, if a = SS, r , if a = SS, with y receiving the complementary probability. We proceed as for the previous monitoring distribution to calculate M . As before, 2 . Consider now directions λ for λ with λ1 , λ2 ≤ 0, we obtain the restriction M ⊂ R+ 6. Proposition 9.1.1 implies that any v ∈ M is a PPE payoff for sufﬁciently high δ. It is worth observing that maxv∈M v2 exceeds 2 − r/(q − r), the maximum payoff player 2 could receive in any PPE in which only ES and SE are played (a similar comment applies to player 1, of course). This is most easily seen by considering the normal λ determining the upper left boundary of M . For such a direction, it is immediate that maxv∈W λ · v = 3λ2 − λ1 + q(λ1 − λ2 )/(q − r) < 0, where W is the set deﬁned in remark 7.7.2. This is an illustration of the general phenomenon that the option of using inefﬁcient actions, such as SS, relaxes incentive constraints.

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u(E, S ) slope = (2 p − r )

u( E, E ) slope = r

r

(2 p − r )

u (S , S ) u(S , E ) 2 − (1 − p )

( p − q)

Figure 8.4.5 The bounding set M when 2p − q > 1.

with λ2 > 0 > λ1 . If −λ1 ≤ λ2 , ES can be orthogonally enforced by setting xi (y ) = xi (y) for i = 1, 2, and arguing as in the previous case. Hence, for such a direction λ, k ∗ (λ) = 3λ2 − λ1 . Consider now directions λ with −λ1 ≥ λ2 (recall that it was not possible to orthogonally enforce ES in these directions under the public monitoring described by (7.2.1)). As above, k ∗ (λ) = 3λ2 − λ1 if ES can be orthogonally enforced. The orthogonal enforceability of ES requires, from equations (8.1.2) and (8.1.3), ¯ + q2 x1 (y ) + (1 − q − q2 )x1 (y) −1 = −1 + qx1 (y)

(8.4.10)

≥ rx1 (y) ¯ + r x1 (y ) + (1 − r − r )x1 (y) and ¯ + q2 x2 (y ) + (1 − q − q2 )x2 (y) 3 = 3 + qx2 (y) ≥ 2 + px2 (y) ¯ + p x2 (y ) + (1 − p − p )x2 (y).

(8.4.11) (8.4.12)

Using λ · x = 0 to eliminate x2 from (8.4.11) and (8.4.12), and writing the inequalities as equalities ((8.4.11) is an implication of (8.4.10) and λ · x = 0), we obtain the matrix equation 0 x1 (y) ¯ q q2 1 − q − q2 r r 1 − r − r x1 (y ) = −1 . p p 1 − p − p −λ2 /λ1 x1 (y) Hence if the matrix of stacked distributions is invertible, then ES is orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ, so k ∗ (EE, λ) = 3λ2 − λ1 . A similar argument shows that k ∗ (SE, λ) = 3λ1 − λ2 . For λ1 , λ2 ≥ 0, both ES and SE can be orthogonally enforced by setting xi (y ) = xi (y) for i = 1, 2 and arguing as in the previous case. Hence, for such λ, k ∗ (ES, λ) = 3λ2 − λ1 and k ∗ (SE, λ) = 3λ1 − λ2 . Finally, we show that invertibility of another matrix of stacked distributions is sufﬁcient for EE to be orthogonally enforced in any direction λ with λ1 , λ2 ≥ 0.

8.4

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The Prisoners’ Dilemma

The orthogonal enforceability of EE requires, from equations (8.1.2) and (8.1.3), for i = 1, 2, ¯ + p xi (y ) + (1 − p − p )xi (y) 2 = 2 + pxi (y) ¯ + qi xi (y ) + (1 − q − qi )xi (y). ≥ 3 + qxi (y)

(8.4.13)

Using λ · x = 0 as above to eliminate x2 from (8.4.13) and writing the inequalities for i = 1, 2 as equalities, we obtain the matrix equation

p q q

p q1 q2

0 x1 (y) 1 − p − p ¯ 1 − q − q1 x1 (y ) = −1 . 1 − q − q2 x1 (y) λ2 /λ1

Hence if the matrix of stacked distributions is invertible, then EE is orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ, and so k ∗ (EE, λ) = (λ1 + λ2 )2. Thus, if 3λ1 ≤ λ2 , 3λ2 − λ1 , ∗ k (λ) = (λ1 + λ2 )2, if λ2 /3 < λ1 < 3λ2 , 3λ − λ , if λ ≥ 3λ , 1

2

1

2

and so M = F ∗ (note that the slope of the line connecting u(E, S) and u(E, E) is −1/3). The requirement that the matrix of stacked distributions be invertible is an example of the property of pairwise full rank, which we explore in section 9.2. 8.4.5 Efficient Asymmetry This section presents an example, based on Kandori and Obara (2003), in which players exploit the asymmetric mixed actions in A (described in section 8.4.2) to attach asymmetric continuations to the public signals. Paradoxically, if the monitoring technology is sufﬁciently noisy, the set of PPE payoffs for patient players is very close to F ∗ .7 We return to the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 8.4.1 with public monitoring distribution (7.2.1). Fix a closed set C ⊂ intF ∗ , and 1 > r > q ∈ (0, 1). We will show that for sufﬁciently small ε > 0, if q < p < q + ε, then C ⊂ M . From proposition 9.1.2, the set of PPE payoffs then contains C for sufﬁciently large δ. This is not a folk theorem result, because we ﬁrst ﬁx the set C , then choose a monitoring distribution, and then allow δ to approach 1. We ﬁrst dispense with some preliminaries. Suppose p, r satisfy p, r > q and c r −q > p−q b−2

(8.4.14)

(for ﬁxed q and r, (8.4.14) is always satisﬁed for p sufﬁciently close to q). It is straightforward to check that SS is orthogonally enforced in all directions, SE is orthogonally 7. This result is not inconsistent with section 7.4, because the increased noisiness does not come in the form of a less informative signal in the sense of Blackwell.

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enforced in all directions λ such that λ1 > 0 and λ1 ≥ λ2 , and ES is orthogonally enforced in all directions λ such that λ2 > 0 and λ2 ≥ λ1 . Consequently, M contains D ≡ co{(0, 0), (b, −c), (−c, b)}. Let λ1 be the direction orthogonal to the line connecting (2, 2) and (b, −c), and λ2 the direction orthogonal to the line connecting (2, 2) and (−c, b). Let ∗ ≡ {λ : λi > 0, λ12 /λ11 ≤ λ2 /λ1 ≤ λ22 /λ21 } be the set (cone) of directions “between” λ1 and λ2 . It is immediate that for any direction not in ∗ , k ∗ (λ) = k ∗ (a, λ) for some a ∈ {SS, SE, ES}. Consequently, if M is larger than D , it is because k ∗ (λ) > maxa∈{SS,SE,ES} k ∗ (a, λ) for λ ∈ ∗ . It remains to argue that for p sufﬁciently close to q, M contains any closed set in the interior of the convex hull of (2, 2) and D . This is an implication of the following lemma. Lemma There exists ε > 0 such that if q < p < q + ε, then for all directions λ ∈ ∗

8.4.1 and all η > 0, there is an asymmetric mixed proﬁle α η-close to EE that can be orthogonally enforced in the direction λ. Proof Fix a direction λ ∈ ∗ . We begin by observing that, as for the direction λˆ in

section 8.4.2, orthogonal enforceability in the direction λ requires, from (8.4.4) and (8.4.6), λ2 g(α2 ) = −λ1 g(α1 ).

(8.4.15)

Just as in section 8.4.2, this equation implies a relationship between α1 and α2 for α orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ. In particular, if for α1 = 1, the implied value of α2 from (8.4.15) is a probability, then (1, α2 ) is orthogonally enforced in the direction λ. Setting α1 = 1 in (8.4.15) and solving for α2 gives α2 =

λ2 (r − q)(b − 2) − λ1 (p − q)c . λ2 (p − q − (q − r))(b − 2) + λ1 (p − q)(b − 2 − c)

Because λ2 /λ1 is bounded for λ ∈ ∗ , there exists ε > 0 such that 1 − η < α2 < 1 if p < q + ε, which is what we were required to prove. ■

9 The Folk Theorem with Imperfect Public Monitoring

The previous chapters showed that intertemporal incentives can be constructed even when there is imperfect monitoring. In particular, nonmyopically optimal behavior can be supported as equilibrium behavior by appropriately specifying continuation play, so that a deviation by a player adversely changes the probability distribution over continuation values. This chapter shows that the set M , from proposition 8.1.1, completely describes the set of limit PPE payoffs, and explores conditions under which M is appropriately “large.” As we saw in section 8.4, the nature of the dependence of the signal distribution on actions determines the size of M and so plays a crucial role in obtaining nearly efﬁcient payoffs as PPE payoffs. This analysis leads to several folk theorems. Folk theorems can (and have) given rise to a variety of interpretations. We refer to section 3.2.1 for a discussion.

9.1

Characterizing the Limit Set of PPE Payoffs

In section 8.1, we introduced the notion of decomposability with respect to half-spaces and deﬁned the maximal half-space in the direction λ, H ∗ (λ). Recall that the maximal half-space H ∗ (λ) is the largest H (λ, k) half-space with the property that a boundary point of the half-space can be decomposed with respect to that half-space. In section 8.1, we showed that the set of PPE payoffs is contained in M , the intersection of all the maximal half-spaces, ∩λ H ∗ (λ). In this section, we show that for large δ, the set of PPE payoffs is typically well approximated by M . Proposition Suppose the stage game satisﬁes assumption 7.1.1. If M ⊂ Rn has nonempty

9.1.1 interior (and so dimension n), then for all v ∈ intM , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ), that is, there is a PPE with value v. Hence,1 lim E (δ) = M .

δ→1

This proposition is an implication of proposition 9.1.2, stated independently for ease of reference. Definition A subset W ⊂ Rn is smooth if it is closed and has nonempty interior with respect

9.1.1 to Rn and the boundary of W is a C 2 -submanifold of Rn . 1. More precisely, the Hausdorff distance between E (δ) and M converges to 0 as δ → 1.

293

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The Folk Theorem

The set M is a compact convex set. If it has nonempty interior, it can be approximated arbitrarily closely by a smooth convex set W contained in its interior.2 Moreover, for any ﬁxed v ∈ intM , W can be chosen to contain v. Proposition 9.1.1 is proven once we have shown W ⊂ E (δ) for sufﬁciently large δ. Proposition Suppose the stage game satisﬁes assumption 7.1.1. Suppose W is a smooth convex

9.1.2 subset of the interior of M . There exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), W ⊂ B(W ; δ) ⊂ E (δ).

There are two key insights behind this result. The ﬁrst we have already seen: The quantity k ∗ (λ) measures the maximum “average” utility of all the players in the direction λ consistent with providing each player with appropriate incentives (remark 8.1.1). The second is that because W is smooth, locally its boundary is sufﬁciently ﬂat that the unnormalized continuations γ required to enforce any action proﬁle can be kept inside W by making players patient (thereby making the variation in continuations arbitrarily small, see (8.1.5)). Proof From corollary 7.3.3, it is enough to show that W is locally self-generating, that

is, for all v ∈ W , there exists δv < 1 and an open set Uv such that v ∈ Uv ∩ W ⊂ B(W ; δv ). We begin with a payoff vector v ∈ intW . Because v is interior, there exists an open set Uv s.t. v ∈ Uv ⊂ Uv ⊂ intW . Let α˜ be a Nash equilibrium of the stage game. Consequently, there exists a discount factor δv such that for any v ∈ Uv , there is a payoff v ∈ W such that v = (1 − δv )u(α) ˜ + δv v .

(9.1.1)

Because α˜ is an equilibrium of the stage game, the pair (α, ˜ γ ) decomposes v with respect to W , where γ (y) = v for all y ∈ Y . The interior of W presents a potentially misleading picture of the situation. The argument just presented decomposes payoffs using the myopic Nash equilibrium of the stage game. Consequently, no intertemporal incentives were needed. However, it would be incorrect to conclude from this that nontrivial intertemporal incentives are only required for a negligible set of payoffs. The value of δv satisfying (9.1.1) approaches 1 as v approaches bdW , the boundary of W . Local decomposability on the boundary of W , which requires intertemporal incentives, guarantees that δ can be chosen strictly less than 1. The strategy implicitly constructed through an appeal to corollary 7.3.3 uses intertemporal incentives for payoffs in a neighborhood of the boundary. We turn to the heart of the argument, decomposability of points on the boundary of W , bdW . We now suppress the dependence of the set U and the discount factor δ on v. Fix a point v on the boundary of W . Because W is smooth and convex, there is a unique supporting hyperplane to W at v, with normal λ. Let k = λ · v. Because W ⊂ intH ∗ (λ), k < k ∗ (λ). Moreover, for all v˜ ∈ W , λ · v˜ ≤ k < k ∗ (λ). 2. More precisely, for any ε, there exists a smooth convex W ⊂ int M whose Hausdorff distance from M is less than ε.

9.1

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295

The Limit Set of PPE Payoffs

H (λ , k ) u (a ) H (λ , k − ε (1 − δ ) / δ )

λ

Bη (v)

v E[γ | a]

Figure 9.1.1 The hyperspaces H (λ, k) and H (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ).

Let α ∈ B be an action proﬁle that decomposes a point v ∗ ∈ bdH ∗ (λ) on so that k < λ · v ∗ = k ∗ (λ).3 Let x ∗ denote the associated normalized continuations satisfying (8.1.2)–(8.1.4) for α and v ∗ . In general, all we know is that λ · x ∗ (y) ≤ 0, and it will be useful to decompose points using normalized continuations with a strictly negative value under λ. Accordingly, let v satisfy k = λ · v < λ · v < λ · v ∗ , and let x (y) = x ∗ (y) − v ∗ + v . Because x is x ∗ translated by a constant independent of y, v is decomposed by (α, γ ), where γ = v + x (1 − δ)/δ. Moreover, λ · x = λ · x ∗ (y) − k ∗ (λ) + λ · v = λ · x ∗ (y) − ε ≤ −ε for all y, where ε = k ∗ (λ) − λ · v > 0. Any v˜ ∈ W can be decomposed by (α, γ˜ ), where H ∗ (λ),

˜ γ˜ (y) = v˜ + [x (y) − v + v]

(1 − δ) , δ

∀y ∈ Y.

(9.1.2)

Because λ · v˜ ≤ k < λ · v , λ · γ˜ (y) ≤ k − ε(1 − δ)/δ (see ﬁgure 9.1.1). For v˜ = v, the decomposing continuation is denoted by γ . It remains to show that there exists η > 0 and δ < 1 such that for all v˜ ∈ Bη (v) ∩ W , we have γ˜ (y) ∈ W , for all y. Now, |γ˜ (y) − Eγ | ≤ |γ˜ (y) − E γ˜ | + |E γ˜ − Eγ | 1 (1 − δ) + |v˜ − v| . = |x (y) − Ex | δ δ In other words, by making η small, and δ sufﬁciently close to 1, we can make γ˜ (y) arbitrarily close to E[γ | α]. From lemma 8.1.1(2), for δ sufﬁciently close to 1, E[γ | α] ∈ W . However, at the same time, E[γ | α] approaches the boundary 3. This assumes there exists an α for which k ∗ (λ) = k ∗ (α, λ). If there is no such α (see note 3 on page 277), the remainder of the proof in the text continues to hold with α and v ∗ chosen such that k ∗ (α, λ) is sufﬁciently close to k ∗ (λ), which we can do because k ∗ (λ) = supα∈B k ∗ (α, λ).

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The Folk Theorem

bd H (λ , k ) H (λ , k − ε (1 − δ ) / δ )

Bη (v) v

γ

u (a )

λ′

Figure 9.1.2 Figure 9.1.1 with the new coordinate system. The vector

λ is λ in the new system. Note that Bη (v) is now an ellipse. The disc centered at γ¯ is the ball of radius β mentioned in the proof.

of W . There is therefore no immediate guarantee that points close to E[γ | α] will also be in W . However, as we now argue, the guarantee is an implication of the smoothness of the boundary of W . By construction, all continuations are no closer than ε(1 − δ)/δ to the supporting hyperplane of W at v, that is, the boundary of H (λ, k). We now change bases to {fi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n}, where {fi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n − 1} is a set of spanning vectors for bdH (λ, k) and fn = u(α) − v. This change of basis allows us to apply a Pythagorean identity. Let F : Rn → Rn denote the linear change-of-basis map, and | · |1 denote the norm on Rn that makes F an isometry, that is, for all x, x ∈ Rn , |x − x |1 = |F x − F x |, where |x| is the Euclidean norm. The two norms | · |1 and | · | are equivalent, that is, there exist two constants κ1 , κ2 > 0, so that for all x ∈ Rn , κ1 |x| ≤ |x|1 ≤ κ2 |x|. The image of the boundary of W under F is still a C 2 -submanifold. Hence, for some β , the ball of | · |1 -radius β centered at a point γ¯ on the fn -axis is contained in W and contains v (this is the reason for the new basis—see ﬁgure 9.1.2). Let γ δ denote the convex combination of the vectors v and γ¯ satisfying δ γ ∈ bdH (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ), so that |γ δ − v| = ε(1 − δ)/δ (this is well deﬁned 4 For any point for δ close to 1). Then, |γ¯ − γ δ |1 ≤ β − κ1 ε(1 − δ)/(δ|λ|). √ δ γˆ ∈ bdH (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ) satisfying |γˆ − γ |1 = κ 1 − δ (where κ > 0 is to be determined), we have,5 |γ¯ − γˆ |21 = |γ¯ − γ δ |21 + |γˆ − γ δ |21 ≤ (β − κ1 ε(1 − δ)/(δ|λ|))2 + κ 2 (1 − δ) " ! κ1 ε κ1 ε(1 − δ) 2 2 −κ . = (β ) − (1 − δ) 2β − δ|λ| δ|λ| 4. Letting w = γ δ − v, we have by the deﬁnition of γ δ , ε(1 − δ)/δ = λ · w. Setting η = λ · w/λ · λ, we have |w|1 ≥ κ1 |w| ≥ κ1 η|λ| = κ1 ε(1 − δ)/(δ|λ|). Finally, |γ¯ − γ δ |1 = |γ¯ − v|1 − |w|1 . 5. The ﬁrst equality, a Pythagorean identity, follows from F (γ¯ − γ δ ) · F (γ − γ δ ) = 0.

9.1

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297

The Limit Set of PPE Payoffs

H (λ , k − ε (1 − δ ) / δ )

bd H (λ , k )

Bκ

1−δ

(γ δ )

γδ v

Bβ ′ (γ )

λ′ γ

Figure 9.1.3 A “zoom-in” of ﬁgure 9.1.2 including the critical set √ {γ˜ : |γ˜ − γ δ |1 < κ 1 − δ} ∩ H (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ) ⊂ W .

There exists a value for κ and a bound δ , such that for all δ > δ , the term in square brackets is strictly positive,6 and so √ γ˜ : |γ˜ − γ δ |1 < κ 1 − δ ∩ H (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ) ⊂ W .

(9.1.3)

This is illustrated in ﬁgure 9.1.3. Note that if W had empty interior, (9.1.3) must fail. From (9.1.2), we already know that γ˜ (y) ∈ H (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ). Now, |γ˜ (y) − γ δ |1 ≤ |γ˜ (y) − Eγ |1 + |Eγ − v|1 + |γ δ − v|1 (1 − δ) 1 + |v˜ − v|κ2 ≤ |x (y) − Ex |κ2 δ δ (1 − δ) (1 − δ) + εκ2 . + |Ex − v + v|1 δ δ There exists κ and δ such that, for δ > δ , the above is bounded above by κ (1 − δ) + 2κ2 |v˜ − v|. √ Choose δ > max{δ , δ } so that 2κ (1 − δ) < κ 1 − δ (this inequality is √ clearly satisﬁed for δ sufﬁciently close to 1). Finally, let η < (κ/4κ2 ) 1 − δ. Then, for all v˜ ∈ Bη (v), the implied γ˜ satisfy √ |γ˜ (y) − γ δ |1 < κ 1 − δ, and so, from (9.1.3), v is locally decomposed, completing the proof. ■

γδ

6. As we will see soon, we need the radius of the ball centered at to be of order strictly greater than O(1 − δ) so that γ˜√will, for large δ, be in the ball. At the same time, if the ball had radius strictly greater than O( 1 − δ), then we could not ensure |γ¯ − γ |1 < β for large δ.

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Remark Pure strategy PPE The above analysis also applies to the case where long-lived

9.1.1 players are restricted to pure strategies. Recalling the notation of remarks 7.3.3 and 8.1.2, we have the following result. Proposition Suppose the game satisﬁes assumption 7.1.1. Suppose M p has nonempty interior,

9.1.3 and W is a smooth convex subset of the interior of M p . Then, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), W ⊂ B p (W ; δ) ⊂ E p (δ). Hence, for all v ∈ intM p , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E p (δ).

Proof The argument is almost identical to that of the proof of proposition 9.1.2, because

every payoff in W can be decomposed using a pure action proﬁle. This is obvious for points on the boundary of W , and for interior points if the stage game has a pure strategy Nash equilibrium. If the stage game does not have a pure strategy Nash equilibrium, decompose points in the interior with respect to some pure action proﬁle and then argue as for the boundary points. ■

◆

9.2

The Rank Conditions and a Public Monitoring Folk Theorem

When all players are long-lived and M has full dimension, from proposition 9.1.1, a folk theorem for games with imperfect public monitoring holds if M = F ∗ . From lemma 8.1.1(3), this would occur if various pure action proﬁles (such as efﬁcient proﬁles) are orthogonally enforced. Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin’s (1994) rank conditions deliver the requisite orthogonal enforceability. We assume action spaces are ﬁnite for the rest of this chapter. If an action proﬁle α is to be enforceable, and it is not an equilibrium of the stage game, then deviations must lead to different expected continuations. That is, the distribution over signals should be different if a player deviates. Asufﬁcient condition is that the distribution over signals induced by α be different from the distribution induced by any proﬁle (αi , α−i ) with αi = αi . This is clearly implied by the following. Definition Suppose A is ﬁnite. The proﬁle α has individual full rank for player i if the

9.2.1 |Ai | × |Y | matrix Ri (α−i ) with elements [Ri (α−i )]ai y ≡ ρ(y | ai , α−i ) has full row rank (i.e., the collection of probability distributions {ρ(· | ai , α−i ) : ai ∈ Ai } is linearly independent). If this holds for all players i, then α has individual full rank. Individual full rank requires |Y | ≥ maxi |Ai |, and ensures that the signals generated by any (possibly mixed) action αi are statistically distinguishable from those of any other mixture αi . Because both αi and αi are convex combinations of pure actions, it would sufﬁce that each ρ(y | α) is a unique convex combination of the distributions in {ρ(y | ai , α−i )}ai ∈Ai (such a condition is discussed in Kandori and Matsushima 1998).

9.2

■

299

Public Monitoring Folk Theorem

If an action proﬁle α has individual full rank, then for arbitrary v, the equations obtained from (8.1.2) and imposing equality in (8.1.3), vi = ui (ai , α−i ) + E[xi (y) | (ai , α−i )],

∀i, ∀ai ∈ Ai

(9.2.1)

can be solved for enforcing normalized continuations x. Writing equation (9.2.1) in matrix form as, for each i, Ri (α−i )xi = [(vi − ui (ai , α−i ))ai ∈Ai ], the coefﬁcient matrix Ri (α−i ) has full row rank, so the equation can be solved for xi (Gale 1960, theorem 2.5). In other words, we choose x so that each player has no incentive to deviate from α. Although each player also has no strict incentive to play α (a necessary property when α is mixed), there are many situations in which strict incentives can be given (see proposition 9.2.2). Without further assumptions, there is no guarantee the enforcing x enforces α in any direction. For example, in the prisoners’ dilemma example of section 8.4.3, α = EE has individual full rank for both players and is enforced by any x satisfying ¯ − xi (y) ≥ 1/(p − q). However, any x satisfying λ · x(y) ¯ > 0 > λ · x(y) fails xi (y) to enforce α in the direction λ. Moreover, if 0 = λ · E[x(y) | α], then necessarily λ · x(y) ¯ > 0 > λ · x(y). Therefore, α = EE cannot be orthogonally enforced in any direction (as we saw in section 8.4.3). The coordinate directions, λ = ei and −ei for some i, impose the least restriction on the continuations, in that xj is unconstrained for j = i. At the same time, λ · x(y) = 0 implies xi (y) = 0, for all y. In other words, only proﬁles in which player i is playing a static (or myopic) best reply to α−i can be orthogonally enforced in the directions −ei or ei . On the other hand, if all players are playing a static best reply (i.e., α is a static Nash equilibrium), xi (y) = 0 for all i and y trivially satisﬁes (8.1.2)– (8.1.4), with vi = ui (α) and (8.1.4) holding with equality for any λ. This discussion implies the following lemma. Lemma 1. If α has individual full rank, then it is enforceable.

9.2.1 2. If α is a static Nash equilibrium, then it can be orthogonally enforced in any direction. 3. If and only if α is enforceable and αi maximizes ui (ai , α−i ) over Ai , then α is orthogonally enforceable in the directions ei and −ei . We turn now to the general conditions that allow orthogonal enforceability in noncoordinate directions. From lemma 8.1.1(4), it will be enough to obtain orthogonal enforceability in all pairwise directions, λij . We begin with a strengthening of the individual full rank condition. Definition Suppose A is ﬁnite. The proﬁle α has pairwise full rank for players i and j if the

9.2.2 (|Ai | + |Aj |) × |Y | matrix ! Rij (α) = has rank |Ai | + |Aj | − 1.

"

Ri (α−i ) Rj (α−j )

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Chapter 9

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The Folk Theorem

Note that |Ai | + |Aj | − 1 is the maximum feasible rank for Rij (α) because αi Ri (α−i ) = [ρ(y | α)y∈Y ] = αj Rj (α−j ). Moreover, pairwise full rank for i and j implies individual full rank for i and j . Lemma If α has pairwise full rank for players i and j and individual full rank, then it is

9.2.2 orthogonally enforceable in any ij -pairwise direction. Proof Fix an ij -pairwise direction λij and choose v satisfying λij · v = λij · u(α) (a necesij

sary condition for orthogonal enforceability from lemma 8.1.1). Because λj = 0, ij

ij

the constraint λij · x(y) = 0 for all y can be written as xj (y) = −λi xi (y)/λj for all y ∈ Y . Imposing this equality, the equations obtained from (8.1.2) and imposing equality in (8.1.3) for i and j can be written as

(vi − ui (ai , α−i ))ai ∈Ai ij λj Rij (α)xi = − ij {vj − uj (aj , α−j )} λi

.

(9.2.2)

aj ∈Aj

Because αi Ri (α−i ) = αj Rj (α−j ) and Rij (α) has rank |Ai | + |Aj | − 1, this system can be solved for x if (Gale 1960, theorem 2.4) ij

αi [(vi − ui (ai , α−i ))ai ∈Ai ] = −

λj

ij

λi

αj [(vj − uj (aj , α−j ))aj ∈Aj ].

(9.2.3)

ij

The left side equals vi − ui (α), and the right side equals − ·v = · u(α). (9.2.3) is implied by Finally, individual full rank for k = i, j implies λij

λj

ij

λi

(vj − uj (α)), so

λij

Rk (α−k )xk = [(vk − uk (ak , α−k ))ak ∈Ak ], can be solved for xk . ■

Recall from proposition 8.1.1 that ∩λ H ∗ (λ) ⊂ F ∗ ⊂ F † . Corollary Suppose there are no short-lived players and all the pure action proﬁles yielding

9.2.1 the extreme points of F † , the set of feasible payoffs, have pairwise full rank for all pairs of players. Then, if n denotes the set of noncoordinate directions, F † ⊂ ∩λ∈ n H ∗ (λ). Proof Because F † is convex, for any noncoordinate direction λ, there is an extreme

point u(a λ ) of F † such that λ · v ≤ λ · u(a λ ) for all v ∈ F † . The extreme points are orthogonally enforceable in all noncoordinate directions (lemmas 8.1.1 and 9.2.2), so k ∗ (λ) = λ · u(a λ ) ≥ λ · v for all v ∈ F † , that is, F † ⊂ H ∗ (λ). ■

Because F † is the intersection of the closed half-spaces with normals in n , the inclusion in corollary 9.2.1 can be strengthened to equality.

9.2

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Public Monitoring Folk Theorem

301

The characterization of M is completed by considering coordinate directions. Pairwise full rank implies individual full rank, for all i, so we have k ∗ (ei ) = maxa ui (a), and ei does not further restrict the intersection.7 The coordinate directions −ei can impose new restrictions, despite being in the closure of the set of noncoordinate directions, n , because different constraints are involved: If player i is not best ij responding to α−i , then as λj → 0 (so that λij approaches an i-coordinate direction), the normalized continuations for player j can become arbitrarily large in magnitude ij ij (because xj (y) = −λi xi (y)/λj ). Enforceability in the coordinate directions implies the normalized continuations used in all directions can be taken from a bounded set. Proposition The public monitoring folk theorem Suppose there are no short-lived players, A

9.2.1 is ﬁnite, F † ⊂ Rn has nonempty interior, and all the pure action proﬁles yielding the extreme points of F † , the set of feasible payoffs, have pairwise full rank for all pairs of players. 1. If α˜ is an inefﬁcient Nash equilibrium, then for all v ∈ int{v ∈ F † : vi ≥ ˜ for all i}, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ). ui (α) 2. If v = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is inefﬁcient and each player’s minmax proﬁle αˆ i has individual full rank, then, for all v ∈ intF ∗ , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ). Proof 1. Because α˜ is a Nash equilibrium, it is orthogonally enforced in all directions,

˜ −ei ) = −ui (α). ˜ Consequently, for any v satisfying and so k ∗ (−ei ) ≥ k ∗ (α, ˜ for all i, we have −vi ≤ −ui (α) ˜ ≤ k ∗ (−ei ), and so v ∈ H ∗ (−ei ). vi ≥ ui (α) † n Because F ⊂ R has nonempty interior, it has full dimension, and the inefﬁciency of u(α) ˜ implies the same for M , and the result follows from proposition 9.1.1. 2. Each player’s minmax proﬁle αˆ i has individual full rank, so from lemma 9.2.1, for all i, k ∗ (−ei ) = −vi , and so M = F ∗ . The inefﬁciency of v implies the full dimensionality of M , and the result again follows from proposition 9.1.1. ■

The conditions given in proposition 9.2.1 are stronger than necessary. Consider ﬁrst the assumption that all pure-action proﬁles yielding the extreme points of F † have pairwise full rank for all players. Many games of interest fail such a condition. In particular, in symmetric games (deﬁnition 8.2.1) such as the oligopoly game of Green and Porter (1984), the distribution over public signals depends only on the number of players choosing different actions, not which players. Consequently, any proﬁle in which all players choose the same action cannot have pairwise full rank: All proﬁles where a single player deviates to the same action induce the same distribution over signals. However, because k ∗ (λ) = supα k ∗ (α, λ), it would clearly be enough to have a dense set of actions within F † , each of which has pairwise full rank. (See section 8.4.5 for an illustration.) Perhaps surprisingly, this seemingly very strong condition is an implication of the existence for each pair of players of just one proﬁle with pairwise full rank for that pair (Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin 1994, lemma 6.2). Similarly, the assumption that each players’ minmax proﬁle has individual full rank can be replaced 7. As we saw in lemma 8.3.1, and return to section 9.3, this is not true in the presence of short-lived players.

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The Folk Theorem

by the assumption that all pure strategy proﬁles have individual full rank (Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin 1994, lemma 6.3). Remark Identifiability and informativeness It is worth emphasizing that the conditions in

9.2.1 proposition 9.2.1 concern the statistical identiﬁability of deviations and make no mention of the informativeness of the signals. Pairwise full rank of a for players i and j asserts simply that the matrix Rij (a) has an invertible square submatrix with |Ai | × |Aj | − 1 rows; there is no bound on how close to singular the matrix can be. For example, consider a sequence of monitoring distributions {ρ } , with all a having pairwise full rank under each ρ and with ρ (y | a) → 1/|Y |, the uniform distribution. In the limit, the public monitoring distribution is uniform on Y for all a, and under that monitoring distribution, all PPE are trivial. On the other hand, for each , proposition 9.2.1 holds. However, the relevant bound on δ becomes increasingly severe (i.e., the bound converges to 1 as → ∞): Because the determinant of any full row rank submatrix of Rij in (9.2.2) converges to 0, the normalized continuations become arbitrarily large (as → ∞) and so in the proof of proposition 9.1.2, the necessary bound on δ to ensure the unnormalized continuations γ are in the appropriate set becomes increasingly severe. ◆ The equilibria implicitly constructed in proposition 9.2.1 are weak: All players are indifferent over all actions. However, for a pure proﬁle a, observe that (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) are implied by, for all i, vi = ui (a) + E[xi (y) | a] = ui (ai , a−i ) + E[xi (y) | (ai , a−i )] − 1,

∀ai ∈ Ai , ai = ai .

(9.2.4)

As with (9.2.1), if a has individual full rank, (9.2.4) can be solved for x. A similar modiﬁcation to (9.2.2) yields, when a has pairwise full rank, continuations with strict incentives. This then gives us the following strengthening of proposition 9.2.1. Let E s (δ) be the set of strict PPE payoffs. Proposition The public monitoring folk theorem in strict PPE Suppose there are no short-lived

9.2.2 players, A is ﬁnite, and ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y ∈ Y and a ∈ A. Suppose F † ⊂ Rn has nonempty interior and all the pure-action proﬁles yielding the extreme points of F † have pairwise full rank for all pairs of players. If each player’s pure-action p p minmax proﬁle aˆ i has individual full rank and v p = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is inefﬁcient, then lim E s (δ) = F ∗p . δ→1

Proof Because strict PPE equilibria are necessarily in pure strategies, we begin, as in

proposition 9.1.3, with a smooth convex set W ⊂ intM p . We argue that W ⊂ E s (δ) for sufﬁciently large δ (the argument is then completed as before). Moreover, observe that if we have local decomposability using continuations that imply strict incentives, then the resulting equilibrium will be strict (corollary 7.1.1). Note ﬁrst that for the case of a point on the boundary of W , the relevant part of the proof of proposition 9.1.2 carries through (with the new deﬁnitions), with the normalized continuations x ∗ chosen so that (9.2.4) holds (this is possible because each pure

9.3

■

Perfect Monitoring Characterizations

303

action proﬁle has individual full rank). Turning to points in the interior of W , if the stage game has a strict Nash equilibrium, then the obvious decomposition of (9.1.1) will give strict incentives, and the argument is completed. If, on the other hand, the stage game does not have a strict Nash equilibrium, we then decompose the point in the interior with respect to some pure-action proﬁle and then argue as for boundary points. ■

9.3

Perfect Monitoring Characterizations

9.3.1 The Folk Theorem with Long-Lived Players Proposition 9.2.1 also implies the mixed-action minmax folk theorem for perfect monitoring repeated games with unobservable randomization. The condition that F † have nonempty interior is called the full-dimensionality condition and is stronger than the assumption of pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments of proposition 3.4.1. Proposition The perfect monitoring folk theorem Suppose there are no short-lived players, A

9.3.1 is ﬁnite, F † has nonempty interior, and v = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is inefﬁcient. For every v ∈ intF ∗ , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgameperfect equilibrium of the repeated game with perfect monitoring with value v. p Moreover, if vi > vi for all i, v is a pure strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. Proof For perfect-monitoring games, Y = A and ρ(a | a) = 1 if a = a and 0 otherwise.

Hence, every pure action proﬁle has pairwise full rank for all pairs of players, and every action proﬁle has individual full rank.8 The ﬁrst claim then follows from proposition 9.2.1. The second claim follows from lemma 8.1.1(4) and proposition 9.1.3. ■

9.3.2 Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players We can also now easily characterize the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs of the perfect monitoring game with many patient long-lived players and one or more short-lived players. Recall from section 3.6 that for such games, F † denotes the payoffs in the convex hull of {(u1 (α), . . . , un (α)) ∈ Rn : α ∈ B}. Even with this change, corollary 9.2.1 does not hold in the presence of short-lived players, because some of the extreme points of F † may involve randomization by a long-lived player (see example 3.6.1). However, under perfect monitoring, all action proﬁles have pairwise full rank for all pairs of long-lived players: Lemma Suppose A is ﬁnite and there is perfect monitoring (i.e., Y = A and ρ(a | a) = 1

9.3.1 if a = a and 0 otherwise). Then, all action proﬁles have pairwise full rank for all pairs of long-lived players. 8. Indeed, under perfect monitoring, all action proﬁles have pairwise full rank (lemma 9.3.1), but we need only the weaker statement here.

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Chapter 9

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The Folk Theorem

Proof Fix a mixed proﬁle α, and consider the matrix Rij (α). Every column of this matrix

corresponds to an action proﬁle a and has no, one, or two, nonzero entries: 1. if the action proﬁle a satisﬁes α(a) > 0, then the entries corresponding to the ai and aj rows are α−i (a−i ) and α−j (a−j ) respectively, with every other entry 0; 2. if a satisﬁes α−k (a−k ) > 0 and αk (ak ) = 0 (k = i or j ), then the entry corresponding to the ak -row is α−k (a−k ), with every other entry 0; and 3. if a satisﬁes αi (ai ) = 0 and αj (aj ) = 0, or α−ij (a−ij ) = 0, then every entry is 0. Deleting one row corresponding to an action taken with positive probability by player i, say, ai , yields a (|Ai | + |Aj | − 1) × |A| matrix, R . We claim R has full row rank. Observe that for any a−i ∈ supp(α−i ), the column in R corresponding to ai a−i has exactly one nonzero term (corresponding to aj ). Moreover, every column of R corresponding to a satisfying α−j (a−j ) > 0 and αj (aj ) = 0 also has exactly one nonzero term. Hence for any β ∈ R|Ai |+|Aj |−1 with βR = 0, every entry corresponding to an action for player j equals 0. But this implies β = 0. ■

We now proceed as in the proof of corollary 9.2.1. For any pairwise direction λij , let α maximize λij · u(α) over α ∈ extF † . Then, k ∗ (λij ) = λij · u(α ), and lemmas 9.2.2 and 8.1.1 imply ∩λ∈ n H ∗ (λ) = F † . We now consider the coordinate directions, ej and −ej . Unlike the case of only long-lived players, the direction ej does further restrict the intersection. From lemma 8.3.1 we have for long-lived player j , k ∗ (ej ) ≤ v¯j ≡ maxα∈B minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ). We now argue that we have equality. Fix α ∈ B, and set, for i = 1, . . . , n, vi = minai ∈supp(αi ) ui (ai , α−i ). Let x be the normalized continuations given by xi (ai , a−i ) =

vi − ui (ai , α−i ),

if αi (ai ) > 0,

−2 maxα |ui (α)|,

if αi (ai ) = 0.

Then, for all j = 1, . . . , n, the normalized continuations x, with v, satisfy (8.1.2)– (8.1.4). So, k ∗ (α, ej ) ≥ vj = minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ), and therefore k ∗ (ej ) = supα∈B k ∗ (α, ej ) ≥ supα∈B minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ). Finally, we need to argue that k ∗ (−ej ) = −vj . From lemma 8.1.2, k ∗ (−ej ) ≤ j j −vj . We cannot apply lemma 9.2.1, because αˆ j need not be a best reply to αˆ −j , the proﬁle minmaxing j . Fix a long-lived player j and for i = 1, . . . , n, set vi = j maxai ∈Ai ui (ai , αˆ −i ). Let x be the normalized continuations given by, for all a ∈ A,

9.4

■

305

Enforceability and Identiﬁability j

xi (a) = vi − ui (ai , αˆ −i ). Then, the normalized continuations x, with v, satisfy (8.1.2)–(8.1.4). So, k ∗ (αˆ j , −ej ) = −ej · v = − max uj (aj , αˆ −j ), j

aj ∈Aj

and therefore k ∗ (−ej ) = supα∈B k ∗ (α, −ej ) ≥ k ∗ (αˆ j , −ej ) = −vj . Summarizing this discussion, we have the following characterization. Proposition Suppose A is ﬁnite and F † has nonempty interior. For every v ∈ intF ∗ satisfying

9.3.2 vi < v¯i for i = 1, . . . , n, there exists δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game with perfect monitoring with value v. Because intertemporal incentives need be provided for long-lived players only, it is sufﬁcient that their actions be perfectly monitored. In particular, the foregoing analysis applies if the long-lived players’action spaces are ﬁnite, and the signal structure is given by Y = ni=1 Ai × Y , for some ﬁnite Y , and ρ((a1 , . . . , an , y ) | a) = 0 if for some i = 1, . . . , n, ai = ai . As suggested by the development of the folk theorem for long-lived players in section 3.5, there is scope for weakening the requirement of a nonempty interior.

9.4

Enforceability and Identiﬁability

Individual full rank, which requires |Y | > |Ai |, is violated in some important games. For example, in repeated adverse selection, discussed in section 11.2, the inequality is necessarily reversed. Nonetheless, strongly efﬁcient action proﬁles can still be enforced (lemma 9.4.1)—though not necessarily orthogonally enforced (for example, EE in the prisoners’ dilemma of section 8.4.3). The presence of short-lived players constrains strong efﬁciency in a natural manner: α ∈ B is constrained strongly efﬁcient if, for all α ∈ B satisfying ui (α) < ui (α ) for some i = 1, . . . , n, there is some = 1, . . . , n, for which u (α) > u (α ). In the absence of short-lived players, the notions of constrained strongly efﬁcient and strongly efﬁcient coincide. The enforceability of constrained strongly efﬁcient actions is an implication of the assumption that player i’s ex ante payoff is the expected value of his ex post payoffs (see (7.1.1)), which only depend on the realized signal and his own action. Intuitively, enforceability of a proﬁle α fails if for some player i, there is another action αi such that α and (αi , α−i ) induce the same distribution over signals with (αi , α−i ) yielding higher stage-game payoffs. But the form of ex ante payoffs in (7.1.1) implies that the other players are then indifferent between α and (αi , α−i ), and so α is not constrained strongly efﬁcient.

306

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

Lemma Suppose ui is given by (7.1.1) for some u∗i , i = 1, . . . , n. Any constrained strongly

9.4.1 efﬁcient proﬁle is enforceable in some direction. Proof If α is constrained strongly efﬁcient, then there is a vector λ ∈ Rn , with λi > 0 for

all i, such that α ∈ argmaxα∈B λ · u(α). For all i ≤ n, let Mi = maxy,ai u∗i (y, ai ) and set

xi (y) ≡

λj u∗j (y, αj )/λi − (n − 1)Mi ,

i = 1, . . . , n.

j =1,...,n, j =i

Then, λ · x(y) = over, for any αi ,

i=1,...,n

j =i

λj u∗j (y, αj ) − (n − 1)

i

λi Mi ≤ 0. More-

ui (αi , α−i ) + E[xi (y) | (αi , α−i )] (9.4.1) 1 ∗ λi ui (αi , α−i ) + = λj uj (y, αj )ρ(y | αi , α−i ) − (n − 1)Mi λi y j =1,...,n, j =i

1 = )+ λi ui (αi , α−i λi =

j =i

λj uj (αi , α−i )

− (n − 1)Mi

1 λ · u(αi , α−i ) − (n − 1)Mi . λi

Because α ∈ argmaxα∈B λ · u(α), αi maximizes (9.4.1), and so α is enforceable in the direction λ. ■

We now turn to Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin’s (1994) weakening of pairwise full rank to allow for enforceable proﬁles that fail individual full rank. Definition A proﬁle α is pairwise identiﬁable for players i and j if

9.4.1 rankRij (α) = rankRi (α−i ) + rankRj (α−j ) − 1, where rankR denotes the rank of the matrix R. Note that pairwise full rank is simply individual full rank plus pairwise identiﬁability. Lemma If an action proﬁle with pure long-lived player actions is enforceable and pairwise

9.4.2 identiﬁable for long-lived players i and j , then it is orthogonally enforceable in all ij -pairwise directions, λij . Proof Suppose α † is an action proﬁle with pure long-lived player actions, that is, †

†

†

†

α † = (a1 , . . . , an , αSL ) for some ai ∈ Ai , i = 1, . . . , n. For all ai ∈ Ai , let † † ri (ai ) denote the vector of probabilities [ρ(y | (ai , α−i )]y∈Y and set ui (ai ) ≡

ui (ai , α−i ). Say that the action ai is subordinate to a set A i ⊂ Ai if there exists subordinating scalars {βi (ai )}ai ∈A i with βi (ai ) = 0 such that †

9.4

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307

Enforceability and Identiﬁability

βi (ai )ri (ai ) = ri (ai )

(9.4.2)

βi (ai )ui (ai ) ≥ ui (ai ).

(9.4.3)

ai ∈A i

and

†

ai ∈A i

From (9.4.2), 1 = a ∈A βi (ai ). i

y

†

ρ(y | (ai , a−i )) =

†

y

ai ∈A i

βi (ai )ρ(y | (ai , a−i )) = †

i

Claim Suppose the set {ri (ai )}a ∈A is linearly dependent for a set of actions A i . Then, i

i

9.4.1 there exists an action ai ∈ A i subordinate to A i .

Proof The linear dependence of {ri (ai )}a ∈A implies the existence of scalars {ζi (ai )}, not

all 0, such that Then,

i

ai ∈A i ζi (ai )ri (ai )

i

= 0. Let ai be an action for which ζi (ai ) = 0.

[−ζi (ai )/ζi (ai )]ri (ai ) = ri (ai ).

(9.4.4)

[−ζi (ai )/ζi (ai )]ui (ai ) < ui (ai ).

(9.4.5)

ai ∈A i \{ai }

Suppose

†

ai ∈A i \{ai }

†

Because all elements of the vectors ri (ai ) are nonnegative, −ζi (ai )/ζi (ai ) > 0 for at least one ai ∈ A i \{ai }; let ai denote such an action. Multiplying (9.4.4) and (9.4.5) by the term ζi (ai )/ζi (ai ), and rearranging, shows that ai is subordinate to A i . On the other hand, if the inequality in (9.4.5) fails, then ai is subordinate to A i . Claim If ai ∈ A i is subordinate to A i and (ai , a−i ) is enforceable, then there exists †

9.4.2

ai

=

ai , ai

∈

A i ,

subordinate to

A i .

Proof Because ai ∈ A i is subordinate to A i , there are subordinating scalars {βi (ai )}

with βi (ai ) = 0 satisfying (9.4.2) and (9.4.3). Suppose (9.4.3) holds strictly. If βi (ai ) ≥ 0 for all ai ∈ A i , then {βi (ai )} corresponds to a mixture over A i (recall † that a ∈A βi (ai ) = 1). Given a−i , this mixture is both statistically indistini

i

†

guishable from ai and yields a higher payoff than ai , so the proﬁle (ai , a−i ) cannot be enforceable. Hence, there is some ai ∈ A i for which βi (ai ) < 0. Dividing both (9.4.2) and (9.4.3) by βi (ai ) < 0 and rearranging shows that ai is subordinate to A i . Suppose now that (9.4.3) holds as an equality. Let ai ∈ A i be an action with βi (ai ) = 0. A familiar rearrangement, after dividing (9.4.2) and (9.4.3) by βi (ai ), shows that ai is subordinate to A i .

308

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

Claim If ai is subordinate to A i and ai is subordinate to A i \{ai }, then ai is subordinate

9.4.3 to A i \{ai }.

Proof Let {βi (ai )} be the scalars subordinating ai to A i , and {βi (ai )} be the scalars

subordinating ai to A i \{ai }. It is straightforward to verify that {β˜i (ai )} given by βi (ai ) + βi (ai )βi (ai ), if ai = ai and ai = ai , ˜ βi (ai ) = 0, otherwise, subordinates ai to A i \{ai }.

We claim that there is a set

† Ai

⊂ Ai containing

† ai

such that

{ri (ai )}a ∈A† i

is

i

linearly independent and each ai ∈ Ai is subordinate to Ai : If {ri (ai )}ai ∈Ai is †

†

†

linearly dependent (i.e., Ri (a−i ) does not have full row rank), then claim 9.4.1 implies there is an action ai1 ∈ Ai subordinate to Ai . By claim 9.4.2, we can † assume ai1 = ai . Trivially, ai1 is subordinate to A1i ≡ Ai \{ai1 }. If {ri (ai )}a ∈A1 is i

i

linearly independent, then A1i is the desired set of actions. If not, then claim 9.4.1 again implies there is an action ai2 ∈ A1i subordinate to A1i . By claim 9.4.2, we † can assume ai2 = ai . By claim 9.4.3, ai1 is subordinate to A2i ≡ A1i \{ai2 }, and 2 trivially, ai is subordinate to A2i . If {ri (ai )}a ∈A2 is linearly independent, then A2i i i is the desired set of actions. If not, then we apply the same argument. Because Ai † is ﬁnite, we must eventually obtain the desired set Ai . † † Let Ri (α−i ) denote the corresponding matrix of probability distributions

{ri (ai )}a ∈A† . Note that Ri (α−i ) has (full row) rank of rankRi (α−i ), and because †

i

†

†

i

every ai ∈ Ai is subordinate to Ai , ri (ai ) is a linear combination of the vectors {ri (ai )}a ∈A† . †

i

†

i

†

By the same argument, there is a corresponding set Aj and matrix of probability †

†

distributions Rj (α−j ) for player j . Pairwise identiﬁability thus implies that the matrix † † Ri (α−i ) †

†

Rj (α−j ) has rank equal to rankRij (α † ). Hence, for all ij -pairwise directions λij , there exists normalized continuations x satisfying λij · x = 0 and, for k = i, j , vk ≡ uk (α † ) + E[xk (y) | α † ] = uk (ak , α−k ) + E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )], †

†

∀ak ∈ Ak , †

(9.4.6)

(by the same argument as in the proof of lemma 9.2.2), as well as for k = i, j , k ≤ n, uk (α † ) + E[xk (y) | α † ] ≥ uk (ak , α−k ) + E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )], †

ij

†

∀ak ∈ Ak

(because α † is enforceable, and λk = 0 for k = i, j implies that our choice of xk is unrestricted).

9.5

■

309

Games with a Product Structure

It remains to show that for k = i, j , and ak ∈ Ak , †

vk ≥ uk (ak , α−k ) + E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )]. †

†

Let {βk (ak )} denote the scalars subordinating ak ∈ Ak to Ak . Then we have, using † β (a ) = 1 and (9.4.6), a ∈A k k †

k

k

vk = = =

ak ∈Ak

†

βk (ak )vk

βk (ak )uk (ak , α−k ) + † † βk (ak )uk (ak ) + †

† ak ∈Ak

†

ak ∈Ak

†

†

ak ∈Ak

βk (ak )E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )] †

ak ∈Ak

βk (ak )xk · rk (ak )

≥ uk (ak ) + xk · rk (ak ) = uk (ak , α−k ) + E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )]. †

†

†

■

Pairwise identiﬁability allows us to easily weaken pairwise full rank in the “Nashthreat” folk theorem as follows. Proposition A weaker Nash-threat folk theorem Suppose there are no short-lived players, A

9.4.1 is ﬁnite, every pure-action strongly efﬁcient proﬁle is pairwise identiﬁable for all ˜ players, and F † has nonempty interior. Let F˜ denote the convex hull of u(α), where α˜ is an inefﬁcient Nash equilibrium, and the set of pure-action strongly efﬁcient proﬁles. Then, for all v ∈ int{v ∈ F˜ : vi ≥ ui (α)}, ˜ there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ). Proof By lemma 9.2.1(2), α˜ is orthogonally enforceable in any direction, and from

lemmas 9.4.1, 9.4.2, and 8.1.1(4), the pure-action strongly efﬁcient proﬁles are orthogonally enforceable in all noncoordinate directions. Suppose v ∈ int{v ∈ ˜ Because v is in the convex hull F˜ , for any noncoordinate direcF˜ : vi ≥ ui (α)}. tion λ, there is an extreme point u(a) of F˜ such that λ · v ≤ λ · u(a). Because the extreme points are orthogonally enforceable in noncoordinate directions, λ · v ≤ k ∗ (λ), that is, v ∈ H ∗ (λ). The coordinate direction ei does not impose any further restriction, because at least one action proﬁle maximizing ui (a) is strongly efﬁcient, and so enforceable, implying k ∗ (ei ) = maxa ui (a). Finally, for ˜ ≤ k ∗ (−ei ), so v ∈ H ∗ (−ei ). Therethe coordinate direction −ei , −vi ≤ −ui (α) ˜ fore, int F ⊂ M and the proof is then completed by an appeal to proposition 9.1.1. ■

This is a Nash-threat folk theorem, because the equilibrium proﬁles that are implicitly constructed through the appeal to self-generation have the property that every continuation equilibrium has payoffs that dominate the payoffs in the Nash equilibrium α˜ (see proposition 9.1.2). Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin (1994) discuss minmax versions of the folk theorem under pairwise identiﬁability.

9.5

Games with a Product Structure

In many games of interest (such as games with repeated adverse selection), there is a separate independent public signal for each long-lived player.

310

Chapter 9

The Folk Theorem

■

Definition A game has a product structure if its space of public signals Y can be written as

9.5.1

n

i=1 Yi

× YSL , and

ρ(y | a) = ρ((y1 , . . . , yn , ySL ) | (a1 , . . . , aN )) = ρSL (ySL | an+1 , . . . , aN )

n

ρi (yi | ai , an+1 , . . . , aN ),

i=1

where ρSL is the marginal distribution of the short-lived player’ signal ySL and ρi is the marginal distribution of long-lived player i’s signal yi . As we discuss in section 10.1, every sequential equilibrium payoff of a game with a product structure is also a PPE payoff (proposition 10.1.1). The distribution determining the long-lived player i’s public signal depends only on player i’s action (and the actions of the short-lived players), so it is easy to distinguish between deviations by player i and player j . Lemma If the game has a product structure, every action proﬁle with pure long-lived

9.5.1 player actions is pairwise identiﬁable for all pairs of long-lived players. Proof Suppose α † is an action proﬁle with pure long-lived player actions, that is, α † = †

†

†

†

(a1 , . . . , an , αSL ) for some ai ∈ Ai , i = 1, . . . , n. Fix a pair of long-lived players † i and j . For each k = i, j , there is a set of actions, Ak = {ak (1), . . . , ak (k )} ⊂ Ak † † † such that ak (k ) = ak , |Ak | = k = rankRk (a−k ) and the collection of distri†

butions {ρ(· | ak (h), α−k ) : h = 1, . . . , k } is linearly independent. We need to †

†

argue that the collection {ρ(· | ai (h), α−i ) : h = 1, . . . , i } ∪ {ρ(· | aj (h), α−j ) : h = 1, . . . , j − 1} is linearly independent, because this implies rankRij (α † ) = † † i + j − 1 = rankRi (α−i ) + rankRj (α−j ) − 1. The rank of Rij (α † ) cannot be †

†

larger, because the collections of distributions corresponding to Ai and Aj contain the common distribution, ρ(· | α † ). We argue to a contradiction. Suppose there are scalars {βk (h)} such that for all j −1 i † † βj (h)ρ(y | aj (h), α−j ) = 0. Because y, h=1 βi (h)ρ(y | ai (h), α−i ) + h=1 the collections of distributions for each player are linearly independent, at least one βi (h) and one βj (h) are nonzero. The game has a product structure, so we can sum over y−ij to get, for all yi and yj (where we have suppressed the common αSL term in ρi and ρj ), i

j −1

βi (h)ρi (yi | ai (h))ρj (yj |

† aj ) +

h=1

†

βj (h)ρi (yi | ai )ρj (yj | aj (h)) = 0.

h=1

(9.5.1) †

†

For any pair of signals yi and yj with ρi (yi | ai )ρj (yj | aj ) > 0, dividing by that product gives i h=1

βi (h)

ρi (yi | ai (h)) ρi (yi |

† ai )

j −1

+

h=1

βj (h)

ρj (yj | aj (h)) †

ρj (yj | aj )

= 0.

9.6

■

311

Repeated Extensive-Form Games

If the second summation depends on yj , then we have a contradiction because the ﬁrst does not. So, suppose the second summation is independent of yj , that is, j −1

†

βj (h)ρj (yj | aj (h)) = cρj (yj | aj )

h=1

for some c, for all yj receiving positive probability under a † . Moreover, for yj j −1 receiving zero probability under a † , (9.5.1) implies h=1 βj (h)ρj (yj | aj (h)) † = 0, and so {ρ(· | aj (h), α−j ) : h = 1, . . . , j } is linearly dependent, a contradiction. ■

As an immediate implication of proposition 9.4.1, we thus have the following folk theorem. Proposition Suppose there are no short-lived players, A is ﬁnite, the game has a product

˜ 9.5.1 structure, and F † has nonempty interior. Let F˜ denote the convex hull of u(α), where α˜ is an inefﬁcient Nash equilibrium, and the set of pure-action strongly efﬁcient proﬁles. Then, for all v ∈ int{v ∈ F˜ : vi ≥ ui (α)}, ˜ there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ).

9.6

Repeated Extensive-Form Games

We now consider repeated extensive-form games. In this section, there are no shortlived players. The stage game is a ﬁnite extensive-form game with no moves of nature. We denote the inﬁnite repetition of by ∞ . Because the public signal of play within the stage game is the terminal node reached, the set of terminal nodes is denoted Y with typical element y. An action for player i speciﬁes a move for player i at every information set owned by that player. Given an action proﬁle a, because there are no moves of nature, a unique terminal node y(a) is reached under the moves implied by a. The ex post payoff u∗i (y, ai ) depends only on y (payoffs are assigned to terminal nodes of the extensive form), and ui (a) = u∗i (y(a)) ≡ u∗i (y(a), ai ). A sequence of action proﬁles (a 0 , a 1 , . . . , a t−1 ) induces a public history of terminal nodes ht = (y(a 0 ), y(a 1 ), . . . , y(a t−1 )). As we discuss in section 5.4, there are additional incentive constraints that must be satisﬁed when the stage game is an extensive-form game, arising from behavior at unreached subgames. In particular, a PPE proﬁle need not be a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated extensive-form game. It is immediate that the approach in sections 3.4.2 and 3.7 can be used to prove a folk theorem for repeated extensive-form games.9 Here we modify the tools from chapters 7 9. For example, one modiﬁes the construction in proposition 3.4.1 by prescribing an equilibrium outcome path featuring a stage-game action proﬁle a 0 that attains the desired payoff from F ∗ , with play entering a player i punishment path in any period in which player i was the last player to deviate from equilibrium actions (given the appropriate history) in the previous period’s (extensive-form) stage game. Wen (2002) presents a folk theorem for multistage games with observable actions, replacing the full dimensionality condition with a generalization of NEU.

312

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

and 8 to accommodate the additional incentive constraints raised by extensive-form stage games. There are only minor modiﬁcations to these tools, so we proceed quickly. Let be the collection of initial nodes of the subgames of the extensive form, with ξ 0 being the initial node of the extensive form. We denote the subgame of with initial node ξ ∈ by ξ ; note that ξ 0 = . If the extensive form has no nontrivial subgames, then = {ξ 0 }. Given a node ξ ∈ , ui (a | ξ ) is i’s payoff in ξ given the moves in ξ implied by a. The terminal node reached by a conditional on ξ is denoted y(a | ξ ) (this is a terminal node of ξ ), so that ui (a | ξ ) = u∗i (y(a | ξ )) and ui (a | ξ 0 ) = ui (a). Every subgame of ∞ is reached by some public history of past terminal nodes, h ∈ H (i.e., h ∈ Y t for some t), and a sequence of moves within that reach some node ξ ∈ . For such a history (h, ξ ), the subgame reached is strategically equivalent to the inﬁnite horizon game that begins with ξ , followed by ∞ ; we denote this game by ∞ (ξ ). Note that ∞ (ξ 0 ) = ∞ , the game strategically equivalent to the subgames that are the focus of chapters 2 and 3. Denote the strategy proﬁle induced by σ on ∞ (ξ ) by σ |(h,ξ ) . Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if for every public history

9.6.1 h ∈ H and every node ξ ∈ , the proﬁle σ |(h,ξ ) is a Nash equilibrium of ∞ (ξ ). We then have the following analog of propositions 2.2.1 and 7.1.1 (the proof is essentially identical, mutatis mutandis).

Proposition Suppose there are no short-lived players. A strategy proﬁle is a subgame-perfect

9.6.1 equilibrium if and only if for all histories (h, ξ ), σ (h) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs g(a) = (1 − δ)u(a | ξ ) + δU (σ |(h,y(a|ξ )) ). We now modify deﬁnitions 7.3.1 and 7.3.2. Definition For any W ⊂ Rn , a pure action proﬁle a ∈ A is subgame enforceable on W if

9.6.2 there exists a mapping γ : Y → W such that, for all initial nodes ξ ∈ , for all i, and ai ∈ Ai , (1 − δ)ui (a | ξ ) + δγi (y(a | ξ )) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i | ξ ) + δγi (y(ai , a−i | ξ )). The function γ subgame enforces a (on W ). Because we only use pure action decomposability in this section, we omit the adjective “pure-action” in the following notions. Definition A payoff vector v ∈ Rn is subgame decomposable on W if there exists an action

9.6.3 proﬁle a ∈ A, subgame enforced by γ on W , such that

vi = (1 − δ)ui (a) + δγi (y(a)). The payoff v is subgame decomposed by the pair (a, γ ) (on W ). A set of payoffs W ⊂ Rn is subgame self-generating if every payoff proﬁle in W is subgame decomposed by some pair (a, γ ) on W .

9.6

■

313

Repeated Extensive-Form Games

We now have an analog to propositions 2.5.1 and 7.3.1 (the proof is identical, apart from the appeal to proposition 9.6.1, rather than proposition 2.2.1 or 7.1.1): Proposition For any bounded set W ⊂ Rn , if W is subgame self-generating, then W ⊂ E E (δ),

9.6.2 that is, W is a set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs.

It is a straightforward veriﬁcation that proposition 7.3.4 and corollaries 7.3.2 and 7.3.3 hold for the current notions (where locally subgame self-generating is the obvious notion). We now consider the analog of (8.1.1) for the current scenario. Let κ ∗ (a, λ, δ) be the maximum value of λ · v over v for which there exists γ : Y → Rn satisfying v = (1 − δ)u(a) + δγ (y(a)), (1 − δ)ui (a | ξ ) + δγi (y(a | ξ )) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i | ξ ) + δγi (y(ai , a−i | ξ )), ∀ξ ∈ , ∀ai ∈ Ai , ∀i, and λ · v ≥ λ · γ (y),

∀y ∈ Y.

As in chapter 8, we can replace γi with xi (y) = δ(γi (y) − vi )/(1 − δ) to obtain constraints independent of the discount factor. It is easy to verify that the subgame version of lemma 8.1.1 holds. Let κ ∗ (λ) = maxa∈A κ ∗ (a, λ, δ) and M E ≡ ∩λ {v : λ · v ≤ κ ∗ (λ)}. We then have the analog of proposition 9.1.2 (which is proved similarly): Proposition Suppose the stage game is a ﬁnite extensive form. Suppose W is a smooth convex

9.6.3 subset of the interior of M E . Then, W is locally subgame self-generating, so there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), W ⊂ E E (δ). We are now in a position to state and prove the folk theorem for repeated extensiveform games. Proposition Suppose there are no short-lived players, and the stage game is a ﬁnite extensive-

9.6.4 form game with no moves of nature. Suppose, moreover, that F † has nonempty p p interior and v p = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is inefﬁcient. For every v ∈ intF †p , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated extensive-form game with value v. Proof Given proposition 9.6.3, we need only prove that F †p ⊂ M E . Step 1. We ﬁrst show that any pure action proﬁle a is subgame enforced, that is,

there exists x : Y → Rn such that, for all ξ ∈ , ui (a | ξ ) + xi (y(a | ξ )) ≥ ui (ai , a−i | ξ ) + xi (y(ai , a−i | ξ )), ∀ai ∈ Ai , ∀i. (9.6.1) As is the set of initial nodes of subgames of , it is partially ordered by precedence, where ξ ≺ ξ if ξ is a node in ξ . Let { }L =0 be a partition of , where 0 = {ξ 0 }, = {ξ ∈ : ξ ≺ ξ , ∃ξ , ξ ≺ ξ ≺ ξ for some ξ ∈ −1 }.

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Because is ﬁnite, L is ﬁnite. Let Yξ be the set of terminal nodes in ξ . If ξ and ξ are not ordered by ≺, then Yξ ∩ Yξ = ∅, whereas if ξ ≺ ξ then Yξ Yξ (i.e., we have strict inclusion).10 Of course, Yξ 0 = Y . Fix an initial node ξ ∈ L . Any two unilateral deviations from a in ξ that result in a terminal node different from y(a | ξ ) being reached must reach distinct terminal nodes, that is, if y(ai , a−i | ξ ) = y(a | ξ ) and y(aj , a−j | ξ ) = y(a | ξ ), then y(ai , a−i | ξ ) = y(aj , a−j | ξ ). Consequently, for y ∈ Yξ , we can specify x L (y) so that (9.6.1) is satisﬁed using x = x L . We now proceed by induction. Suppose we have speciﬁed, for ≥ 1, x (y) for y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ so that (9.6.1) holds for all ξ ∈ ∪k≥ . Fix an initial node ξ ∈ −1 . If there is no node in following ξ , then x (y) for y ∈ Yξ is undeﬁned. As for the case ξ ∈ L , we can specify x −1 (y) for y ∈ Yξ so that (9.6.1) is satisﬁed using x = x −1 for ξ , without affecting (9.6.1) for ξ ∈ ∪k≥ . Suppose now there is one (or more nodes) in following ξ . If y(a | ξ ) ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ (i.e., none of these nodes are reached under a from ξ ), then set

xi−1 (y) =

M¯ ,

y = y(a | ξ ),

x (y), y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ , i 0, y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ , y = y(a | ξ ),

where M¯ = max ui (a) − min ui (a) + 1 + max xi (y). This choice of x −1 (y) for y ∈ Yξ ensures that (9.6.1) is satisﬁed using x = x −1 for ξ , without affecting (9.6.1) for ξ ∈ ∪k≥ (because the normalized continuations on the subgames are unaffected). If y(a | ξ ) ∈ Yξ for some (necessarily unique) ξ ∈ , set ¯ xi (y) + M , y ∈ Yξ , xi−1 (y) = xi (y), y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ ,ξ =ξ Yξ , 0, y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ . This choice of x −1 (y) for y ∈ Yξ ensures that (9.6.1) is satisﬁed using x = x −1 for ξ , without affecting (9.6.1) for ξ ∈ ∪k≥ (because the normalized continuations on the subgames are either unaffected, or modiﬁed by a constant). Hence, (9.6.1) holds for all ξ ∈ . Consequently (recall lemma 9.2.1), the pure-action minmax proﬁle aˆ i is orthogonally enforceable in the direction −ei . Step 2. It remains to argue that every pure action proﬁle is orthogonally sub-

game enforced in all noncoordinate directions. Because a “subgame” version of lemma 8.1.1 holds with identical proof, it is enough to show that a is orthogonally subgame enforced in all pairwise directions. Denote by xˆ the normalized continuations just constructed to satisfy (9.6.1). For a ﬁxed ij-pairwise direction λ, 10. Without loss of generality, we assume each node has at least two moves.

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Repeated Extensive-Form Games

we now construct orthogonally enforcing continuations from x. ˆ We ﬁrst deﬁne new continuations that satisfy the orthogonality constraint for y = y(a), that is, x˜k (y) =

xˆk (y),

if k = i, j ,

xˆk (y) − xˆk (y(a)), if k = i or j .

Then, λ · x(y(a)) ˜ = 0. Moreover, because a constant was subtracted from xi independent of y (and similarly for j ), (9.6.1) holds for all ξ ∈ under x. ˜ We ﬁrst iteratively adjust x˜ so that on the outcome path of every subgame of , orthogonality holds. Suppose ξ ∈ 1 and that ξ is reached from ξ 0 by a unilateral deviation by player i (hence, ∃y ∈ Yξ , ∃ai = ai , y = y(ai , a−i )). For y ∈ Yξ , we subtract from each of player j ’s continuations the quantity x˜j (y(a | ξ )) + λi x˜i (y(a | ξ ))/λj . Observe that these new continuations satisfy ˜ (9.6.1) for all ξ ∈ . Moreover, denoting the new continuations also by x, λ · x(y(a ˜ | ξ )) = 0. We proceed analogously for a node ξ ∈ 1 reached from ξ 0 by a unilateral deviation by player j . The only other possibility is that ξ cannot be reached by a unilateral deviation by i or j , in which case we can set x˜i (y) = x˜j (y) = 0 for all y ∈ Yξ without any impact on incentives. Proceeding inductively, we now assume λ · x(y(a ˜ | ξ )) = 0 for all ξ ∈ −1 ∪m=0 m . Suppose ξ ∈ , and denote its immediate predecessor by ξ −1 ∈ ˜ | ξ )) = 0, and no adjustment is −1 . If y(a | ξ −1 ) = y(a | ξ ), then λ · x(y(a −1 necessary. Suppose y(a | ξ ) = y(a | ξ ) and ξ is reached from ξ −1 by a unilateral deviation by either i or j (hence, either ∃y ∈ Yξ , ∃ai , y = y(ai , a−i | ξ −1 ), or ∃y ∈ Yξ , ∃aj , y = y(aj , a−j | ξ −1 )). Suppose it is player i. For y ∈ Yξ , we subtract x˜j (y(a | ξ )) + λi x˜i (y(a | ξ ))/λj from each of player j ’s continuations. These new continuations also satisfy (9.6.1) for all ξ ∈ . Moreover, denoting the new continuations also by x, ˜ λ · x(y(a ˜ | ξ )) = 0. As before, the only other possibility is that ξ cannot be reached from ξ −1 by a unilateral deviation by i or j , in which case we can set x˜i (y) = x˜j (y) = 0 for all y ∈ Yξ without any impact on incentives. Proceeding in this way yields continuations x˜ that satisfy (9.6.1) and for all ξ ∈ , λ · x(y(a ˜ | ξ )) = 0. It remains to adjust x˜ for y = y(a | ξ ) for all ξ . Fix such a y. There is a “last” node ξ ∈ such that y ∈ Yξ (that is, ∃ξ , ξ ≺ ξ , with y ∈ Yξ ). We partition Yξ into three sets, {y(a | ξ )}, Yξ1 , and Yξ2 , where Yξ1 = {y ∈ Yξ : y = y(ai , a−i | ξ ) for some ai = ai , or y = y(aj , a−j | ξ ) for some aj = aj } is the set of nodes reached via a unilateral deviation by either i or j from ξ , and Yξ2 = Yξ \ (Yξ1 ∪ {y(a | ξ )}) are the remaining terminal nodes. If y ∈ Yξ2 , we can redeﬁne x˜i (y) = x˜j (y) = 0 without affecting any incentive constraints, and obtaining λ · x(y) ˜ = 0. Finally, suppose y ∈ Yξ1 and y = y(ai , a−i ) for some ai ∈ Ai . Then, player j cannot unilaterally deviate from a and reach y, so that the value of xj (y) is irrelevant for j ’s incentives, and we can set xj (y(ai , a−i )) = −λi xi (y(ai , a−i ))/λj . ■

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9.7

■

The Folk Theorem

Games of Symmetric Incomplete Information

This section examines an important class of dynamic games, games of symmetric incomplete information. Although there is incomplete information about the state of the world, because players have identical beliefs about the state after all histories, decomposability and self-generation are still central concepts. The game begins with the draw of a state ξ from the ﬁnite set of possible states , according to the prior distribution µ0 , with µ0 (ξ ) > 0 for all ξ ∈ . The players know the prior distribution µ0 but receive no further information about the state. Each player i, i = 1, . . . , n, has a ﬁnite set of actions Ai , independent of ξ , with payoffs given by ui : A × → R.11 Every pair of states ξ, ξ ∈ are distinct, in the sense that there is an action proﬁle a for which u(a, ξ ) = u(a, ξ ). As usual, u(α, µ) = ξ a ui (a, ξ )α(a)µ(ξ ). The players share a common discount factor δ. At the end of each period t, each player observes the action proﬁle a t and the realized payoff proﬁle u(a t , ξ ). Observing the action and payoff proﬁles may provide the players with considerable information about the state, but it does not ensure that the state is instantly learned or even eventually learned. For any pair of states ξ and ξ , there may be some action proﬁles that give identical payoffs, so that some observations may give only partial information about the state or may give no information at all. Because the set of states is ﬁnite and every pair of states is distinct, there are repeated-game strategy proﬁles ensuring that the players will learn the state in a ﬁnite number of periods. However, it is not obvious that an equilibrium will feature such behavior. The players in the game face a problem similar to a multiarmed bandit. Learning the payoffs of all the arms requires that they all be pulled. It may be optimal to always pull arm 1, never learning the payoff of arm 2. As players become increasingly patient, experimenting in their action choices to collect information about the state becomes increasingly inexpensive. However, even arbitrarily patient players may optimally never learn the state. The players’bandit problem is interactive. The informativeness of player i’s action depends on j ’s choice, so that i alone cannot ensure that the state is learned. In addition, the outcome that appears once a state is learned is itself an equilibrium phenomenon, raising the possibility that a player may prefer to not learn the state. Example Players need not learn Suppose there are two players and two equally likely

9.7.1 states, with the stage games for the two states given in ﬁgure 9.7.1. Suppose ﬁrst that x = y = 0, and consider an equilibrium in which players 1 and 2 each choose C in each period, regardless of history. These are stage-game best responses for any posterior belief about the state. In addition, no unilateral deviation results in a proﬁle that reveals any information about the state (even though there exist proﬁles that would identify the state). We thus have an equilibrium in which the players never learn the state. There are also equilibria in which players learn the state. One such proﬁle has an outcome path with AA in the initial period, followed by BB in odd periods 11. As in section 5.5.1, this is without loss of generality.

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317

Symmetric Incomplete Information

A

B

C

A

5, 1

0, 0

y, 0

B

0, 0

1, 5

C

0, y

0, x ξ

A

B

C

A

0, 0

1, 5

x, 0

x, 0

B

5, 1

0, 0

y, 0

2, 2

C

0, x

0, y

2, 2

ξ

Figure 9.7.1 Stage games for state ξ and state ξ .

and AA in even periods if payoffs reveal the state is ξ , and by AB in odd periods and BA in even periods if the state is revealed to be ξ . Given the speciﬁcation of AA in the initial period, the state is revealed at the end of period 0 even if a player unilaterally deviates to B. The proﬁle is completed by specifying that any deviation to C in the initial period restarts the proﬁle, that other deviations by player 2 after period 0 and all other deviations by player 1 are ignored, and ﬁnally that a deviation by player 2 in period 0 to B results in permanent AA in ξ and permanent BA in ξ . Player 1 is always playing a stage-game best response. Though A is not a best response for player 2 in period 0 (she is best responding in every subsequent period, given the revelation of the state in period 0), the speciﬁcation ensures that she is optimizing for large δ. Suppose now that x = 6 and y = 7. The proﬁle in which CC is played in every period after every history is clearly no longer an equilibrium. Nonetheless, there is still an equilibrium in which players do not learn the state. In the equilibrium, CC is played after any history featuring only the outcomes CC. After any history in which the state becomes known as a result of a unilateral deviation by player 1 (respectively, 2), continuation play consists of the perpetual play of BB (respectively, AA) in state ξ and AB (respectively, BA) in state ξ . Continuation play thus penalizes the deviating player for learning the state, and sufﬁciently patient players will ﬁnd it optimal to play CC, deliberately not learning the state. ●

Example Learning facilitates punishment Continuing from example 9.7.1, suppose x =

9.7.2 y = 10. We are still interested in the existence of equilibria in which learning does not occur, that is, in equilibria with outcome path CC, CC, CC, . . . . In contrast to example 9.7.1, a deviation (though myopically proﬁtable) does not reveal the state. However, we can use subsequent learning to create appropriate incentives. Consider the following revealing proﬁle, σ 1 . In the initial period, play BB, followed by BB in state ξ and AB in state ξ , in every subsequent period. Deviations to C in period 0 restart the proﬁle, and other deviations are ignored. The actions are a stage-game Nash equilibrium in each period and only an initial deviation to C can affect information about the state, so this proﬁle is an equilibrium, giving player 1 a payoff close to 1. Denote by σ 2 the analogous revealing proﬁle that gives player 2

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The Folk Theorem

a payoff close to 1. Then, for large δ, there exists a pure-strategy nonrevealing equilibrium with outcome path CC, CC, CC, . . . , simultaneous deviations ignored, and continuation play given by σ i after unilateral deviation by player i. ●

Remark Imperfect monitoring Both actions and payoffs are perfectly monitored in the

9.7.1 model just described. The canonical single-agent bandit problem considers the more complicated inference problem in which arms have random payoffs. Wiseman (2005) considers a game of symmetric incomplete information with a similar inference problem. For each action proﬁle a and state ξ , there is a distribution ρ(y | a, ξ ) determining the draw of a public signal y ∈ Y for some ﬁnite Y . Ex ante payoffs, as a function of the action proﬁle and the state, are given by u∗i (y, a)ρ(y | a, ξ ), ui (a, ξ ) = y∈Y

where u∗i : Y × A → R is i’s ex post payoff. After each period, players observe both the actions chosen in that period and the realized payoff proﬁle (or equivalently, the signal y). Our formulation is the special case in which the distribution ρ(y | a, ξ ) is degenerate for each a and ξ . ◆ 9.7.1 Equilibrium p

For each player i and state ξ , we let vi (ξ ) be the pure minmax payoff: p

vi (ξ ) = min max ui (ai , a−i , ξ ). a−i

ai

We then let F (ξ ), F † (ξ ), and F †p (ξ ) be the set of pure stage-game payoffs, the convex hull of this set, and the subset of the latter that is strictly individually rational, for state ξ . We assume that F †p (ξ ) has dimension n, for each ξ . A period t history (ξ, {a τ , uτ }t−1 τ =0 ) contains the state and the action proﬁles and payoffs realized in periods 0 through t − 1. A period t public history ht contains the action proﬁles and payoffs from periods 0 to t − 1. The set of feasible period t public t histories H t is thus a subset of (A × Rn )t , with {a τ , uτ }t−1 τ =0 ∈ H if there exists τ ξ ∈ with the property that, for each period τ = 0, . . . , t − 1, u = u(a τ , ξ ). Given a prior µ ∈ (), an action proﬁle a and a payoff u may rule out some states but otherwise does not alter the odds ratio. That is, the posterior is given by ϕ(µ | a, u)(ξ ) ≡

µ(ξ )/

{ξ :u(a,ξ )=u} µ(ξ

),

if u(a, ξ ) = u, if u(a, ξ ) = u.

0,

We write ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ξ ) for ϕ(µ | a, u(a, ξ )). The period t posterior distribution over , given the period t history ht , is denoted by µ(· | ht ) or µ(ht ). These posteriors are deﬁned recursively, with µ(∅) = µ0

(9.7.1)

9.7

■

Symmetric Incomplete Information

319

and µ(ht ) = ϕ(µ(ht−1 ) | a, u),

(9.7.2)

where ht = (ht−1 , a, u). Fix a prior distribution µ0 and let K be the set of possible posterior distributions, given prior µ0 . The set K is ﬁnite with 2K − 1 elements, where K is the number of states in . Each posterior is identiﬁed by the states that have not been ruled out, that is, that still command positive probability. It is clear from (9.7.1) and (9.7.2) that for any subset of states, every history under which beliefs attach positive probability to precisely that subset must give the same posterior distribution. A behavior strategy σ for player i is a function mapping from the set of public histories H into (A). We let Ui (σ, µ) be the expected payoff to player i given strategy proﬁle σ and prior distribution over states µ. We can treat this game of symmetric incomplete information as a dynamic game of perfect information by setting the set of game states equal to K , setting the stagegame payoffs equal to the expected payoffs under the current state, and determining game-state transitions by ϕ. Because Bayes’ rule speciﬁes beliefs after every public history, beliefs trivially satisfy the consistency requirement of sequential equilibrium. Definition The strategy proﬁle σ is a sequential equilibrium if, given the beliefs implied by

9.7.1 (9.7.1) and (9.7.2), for all players i, histories h, and alternative strategies σi , Ui (σ |h , µ(h)) ≥ Ui (σi , σ−i |h , µ(h)).

The set of sequential equilibrium proﬁles of the game of symmetric incomplete information clearly coincides with the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium proﬁles of the implied dynamic game. We now provide a self-generating characterization of sets of sequential equilibrium payoffs. Let W ⊂ Rn be a set of payoff proﬁles. A pair (v, µ) ∈ W × K identiﬁes a payoff proﬁle v for the repeated game whose prior probability over is µ. Let WK be a subset of W × K (where WK need not be a product set). A pair (v, µ) is decomposed by the proﬁle α ∈ i (Ai ) on the set WK if there exists a function ˆ µ) ˆ ∈ WK for all a and µˆ ∈ K such that, for each γ : A × K → Rn with (γ (a, µ), player i and action ai , γi (a, ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ξ ))α(a)µ(ξ ) (9.7.3) vi = (1 − δ)ui (α, µ) + δ a∈A

≥

(1 − δ)ui (ai , α−i , µ) + δ

γ (ai , a−i , ϕ ∗ (µ | ai , a−i , ξ ))α−i (a−i )µ(ξ ).

a−i ∈A−i

(9.7.4)

The ﬁrst condition ensures that expected payoffs are given by v, and the second supplies the required incentive compatibility constraints. We cannot in general take the set WK to be the product W × K . There may be payoff proﬁles that can be achieved in games with some prior distributions over states but not in games with other prior distributions. The set WK is self-generating if every pair (v, µ) ∈ WK can be decomposed on WK . The following is a special case of proposition 5.7.4 for dynamic games:

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The Folk Theorem

Proposition Suppose WK is self-generating. Then for every (v, µ) ∈ WK , there is a sequential

9.7.1 equilibrium of the repeated game with prior belief µ whose expected payoff is v. 9.7.2 A Folk Theorem Let U (σ | ξ ) be the repeated-game payoff from strategy proﬁle σ , given that the state is in fact ξ . Let the states in be denoted by {ξ1 , . . . , ξK }. The following is a special case of Wiseman’s (2005) main result (see remark 9.7.1). Proposition Fix a prior µ0 on with µ0 (ξk ) > 0 for all ξk ∈ . For any vector of payoff

9.7.2 proﬁles (v ∗ (ξ1 ), . . . , v ∗ (ξK )), with v ∗ (ξk ) ∈ intF †p (ξk ) for all k, and any ε > 0, there is a discount factor δ such that, for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a sequential equilibrium σ of the game of incomplete information with prior µ0 such that |U (σ | ξk ) − v ∗ (ξk )| < ε ∀k. We thus have a state-by-state approximate folk theorem. The proﬁle constructed in the proof produces the appropriate payoffs given the state, by ﬁrst inducing the players to learn the state. As we have seen in example 9.7.1, learning need not occur in equilibrium, and so speciﬁc incentives must be provided.

Proof From (9.7.1) and (9.7.2), each posterior in K is identiﬁed by its support. Let

K () be the collection of posteriors in which states receive positive probability. Fix (v ∗ (ξk ))k , a vector of payoff proﬁles, with v ∗ (ξk ) ∈ intF †p (ξk ) for all k. Choose ε < ε/2 sufﬁciently small that B ε (v ∗ (ξk )) is in the interior of F †p (ξk ) for each ξk . For each posterior µ ∈ K (), let Cµ = B ε K−+1 K

v ∗ (ξk )µ(ξk ) .

(9.7.5)

ξk ∈

For each possible posterior distribution µ ∈ K , Cµ is a closed ball of payoffs, centered at the expected value of the target payoffs under µ. The radius decreases in the number of states contained in the support of µ, ranging from a radius of ε /K when no states have been excluded to a radius of ε when probability one is attached to a single state. This behavior of the radius of Cµ is critical in providing sufﬁcient freedom in the choice of continuation values after revealing action proﬁles to provide incentives. Our candidate for a self-generating set is the union of these sets, CK = ∪µ∈K (Cµ × {µ}). The pair (a, µ), consisting of a pure action proﬁle and a belief, is revealing if the belief µ attaches positive probability to two or more states that give different payoffs under a. Hence, a revealing pair (a, µ) ensures that if a is played given posterior µ, then the set of possible states will be reﬁned. In equilibrium, there can only be a ﬁnite number of revealing proﬁles played, at which point beliefs either attach unitary probability to a single state or no further revealing proﬁles are played.

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321

Symmetric Incomplete Information

The proof relies on two lemmas. First, lemma 9.7.1 shows there exists a discount factor δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ , 1), the set CK is self-generating. This sufﬁces to ensure that CK is a set of sequential equilibrium payoffs (proposition 9.7.1) for such δ. Second, lemma 9.7.2 shows that for all δ ∈ (δ , 1), there exists an equilibrium with every continuation-payoff/posterior pair (v, µ) in CK with the property that in every period, either a revealing proﬁle is played, or µ ∈ K (1). As a result, for all δ ∈ (δ , 1), we are assured of the existence of an equilibrium such that within at most K periods, the continuation payoff lies within ε < ε/2 of v ∗ (ξk ) for the true state ξk . To ensure that payoffs are within ε of v ∗ , it then sufﬁces to restrict the discount factor to be high enough that (1 − δ K )(M − m)

0. Denote by Cµ the set of values v ∈ Cµ satisfying, for each player i, vi ≥ min vˆi + η.

(9.7.6)

v∈C ˆ µ

η

In this step, we show that there exists δη such that every point in Cµ can be decomposed on CK using a revealing action proﬁle, for all δ ∈ (δη , 1). Choose δη ∈ (0, 1) so that for all δ ∈ (δη , 1), ε 1−δ (M − m) < min η, √ ≡ ζ. δ 2 nK

(9.7.7)

Because states are distinct, there is a revealing action proﬁle a that discriminates between at least two of the states receiving positive probability under µ. η Fix v ∈ Cµ , and let v be the payoff satisfying

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The Folk Theorem

v = (1 − δ)u(a, µ) + δv . Rearranging, (9.7.7) implies |vi − vi | < v

− v, we have ||

0}

(9.7.12)

Of the states assigned positive probability by µ, ξ(i, µ) is that state giving player i the lowest minmax payoff, if the state were known. Let aˆ −i (µ) be the associated minmax proﬁle in state ξ(i, µ). This action proﬁle need not minmax player i given posterior µ because it only necessarily minmaxes i in one of the states receiving p positive probability under µ. However, vi (ξ(i, µ)) < vi because vi is the average p (over states) of payoffs which exceed the corresponding minmax payoffs vi (ξ ), p each of which is at least vi (ξ(i, µ)). The idea is to decompose v using the proﬁle a ≡ (aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), where aˆ i maximizes ui (ai , aˆ −i (µ), µ). Suppose the action proﬁle (aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)) is revealing. The analysis in step 2 shows that with the exception of nonrevealing deviations ˜ ξ ) can be a = (ai , aˆ −i (µ)), the continuations after any proﬁle a˜ and payoff u(a, ' √ 12. Inequality (9.7.6) can fail for two players only if 2(r − η)2 < r or η > r(1 − 1/ 2) (where r is the radius of Cµ ). Finally, r ≥ ε /K for all µ ∈ K . 13. If we use a revealing action to decompose v, then the analysis from step 2 can be used to construct continuations that deter any deviations to revealing actions. The difﬁculty arises with a deviation to a nonrevealing action proﬁle a .

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■

The Folk Theorem

chosen so deviations by i are not proﬁtable and (γ (a, ˜ ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ˜ ξ )), ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ˜ ξ )) ∈ CK . The difﬁculty with nonrevealing action proﬁles a = (ai , aˆ −i (µ)) is that the continuation payoff must now come from the set Cµ and player i’s payoff is already near its minimum in the set Cµ . Consequently, incentives cannot be provided via continuations. However, for the deviation to a not to be proﬁtable, it sufﬁces that ui (a , µ) ≤ ui ((aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), µ). We show that this inequality holds. Player i’s expected payoff from (ai , aˆ −i (µ)) must be the same in every positive probability state (otherwise the proﬁle is revealing). But player i’s payoff from (ai , aˆ −i (µ)) in state ξ(i, µ) can be no larger than p vi (ξ(i, µ)), and hence his payoff in every state can be no larger. The deviation to ai thus brings a smaller current payoff than vi . Choosing v as the continuation payoff then ensures that ai is suboptimal. Hence, combining these last two steps, if µ has nonsingleton support, for all η ∈ (0, η ) and all δ ∈ (δη , 1), every payoff in Cµ is decomposed on CK , apart ˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), µ) nonrevealing. from v ∈ Cµ with vi ≤ minv∈C ˆ µ vˆ i + η and ((a Step 4. It remains to decompose payoffs v ∈ Cµ with vi ≤ minv∈C ˆ µ vˆ i + η and

((aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), µ) nonrevealing, for small η. As we argued in the penultimate p paragraph of step 3, ui (a, µ) ≡ ui ((aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), µ) = vi (ξ(i, µ)). This value is i strictly less than vi . Let v ∈ Cµ be the unique point for which i’s payoff in Cµ is minimized (the point is unique because Cµ is a strictly convex set). Because vii > ui (a, µ), there is a θ > 1 such that (1 − θ)u(a, µ) + θ v i ∈ intCµ for all θ ∈ (1, θ ). Consequently, there exist η ∈ (0, η ) and θ > 1 such that for all v ∈ Cµ satisfying (9.7.11), (1 − θ )u(a, µ) + θ v ∈ intCµ for all θ ∈ (1, θ ). This implies that for all δ ∈ (1/θ , 1), there exists v in the interior of Cµ such that v = (1 − δ)u(a) + δv .

We decompose v with a proﬁle (aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)) and continuation payoff v after (aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)). Continuation payoffs for deviations by players other than i or by deviations on the part of player i to revealing actions are constructed as in step 2. Nonrevealing deviations by player i are ignored. Set δµ = max{δη , 1/θ }, where δη is deﬁned in (9.7.7) for η = η . It is now straightforward to verify that the required incentive constraints hold for all δ ∈ (δµ , 1). Summarizing steps 2 through 4, for all µ with nonsingleton support, there exists δµ such that any (v, µ) ∈ CK can be decomposed on CK , for any δ ∈ (δµ , 1). The proof of the lemma is completed by taking δ as the maximum of δµ over all µ ∈ K (a ﬁnite set). ■

Lemma For every δ ∈ (δ , 1), there exists a sequential equilibrium with the properties that

9.7.2 every history gives rise to a pair (v, µ) ∈ CK and that in every period, either a revealing proﬁle is played or µ ∈ K (1).

9.7

■

Symmetric Incomplete Information

325

Proof Because δ satisﬁes (9.7.7) for η = η from step 4 of the proof of lemma 9.7.1, by

step 2 the payoff ξk ∈ v ∗ (ξk )µ0 (ξk ) can be decomposed by a revealing current action proﬁle a and continuation payoffs γ (a, ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ξj )) that lie within ε /2K of ξk ∈ v ∗ (ξk )ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ξj )(ξk ). For any µ = ϕ ∗ (µ0 | a, ξj ), because a is revealing, µ ∈ ∪ η ,

and so satisﬁes (9.7.6). Hence, continuing in this fashion, we construct a proﬁle with a revealing action in each period and with the property that any continuation value on the path of play satisﬁes (9.7.6) (because at each stage, the continuation v is within ε (K − )/(2K) of the center of Cµ ). Consequently, within at most K periods, the posterior probability is in K (1) and continuation payoffs are within K−1 ε ∗ K ε < ε < 2 of v (ξj ) for that (single) state ξj to which the posterior attaches positive probability. Because the set CK is self-generating for δ > δ , and K is ﬁnite, for sufﬁciently large δ, the proﬁle is a sequential equilibrium. ■

There are two key insights in this argument. The ﬁrst is that by choosing the set CK to be the union of sets Cµ × {µ}, where the size of Cµ is increasing in the conﬁdence that players have about the state, revealing action proﬁles can be enforced (step 2 of the proof of lemma 9.7.1). The second is that when a nonrevealing action proﬁle is played, because payoffs are uninformative, continuations are not needed to provide incentives (steps 3 and 4 in the proof of lemma 9.7.1). These insights play a similarly important role in Wiseman’s (2005) argument, which covers mixed minmax payoffs and games of imperfect monitoring (see remark 9.7.1). This noisy monitoring of payoffs poses two difﬁculties. First, the set of posteriors, and hence the set K , is no longer ﬁnite. Second, we no longer have the sharp distinction between a revealing action and a nonrevealing action proﬁle. The argument replaces our ﬁnite union ∪µ∈K (Cµ × {µ}) with a function from the simplex of posteriors into sets of continuation payoffs, with the property that

326

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

the sets of payoffs become larger as beliefs approach certainty. The next step is to replace the idea of a revealing proﬁle with a proﬁle that maximizes expected learning, that is, maximizes the expected distance between the current posterior and the future posterior. One then argues that every payoff/belief pair (v, µ) can be decomposed with a current action that maximizes expected learning, except those that minimize a player’s payoff, which can be decomposed by forcing the player in question to choose an action that either induces some learning or yields a low payoff. The argument concludes by showing that there is a ﬁnite number of periods with the property that with very high probability, within this collection of periods the posterior converges to very near the truth and stays there forever.

9.8

Short Period Length

In section 3.2.3, we introduced the interpretation of patience as short period length. For perfect monitoring games, it is purely a question of taste whether one views high δ as patient players or short-period length. This is not the case, however, for public monitoring. Although interpreting payoffs on a ﬂow basis poses no difﬁculty as period length goes to 0, the same is not true for imperfect public signals. Consider, for example, the imperfect monitoring prisoners’dilemma of section 7.2. We embed this game in continuous time, interpreting the discount factor δ as e−r , where r is the players’ common discount rate and is the length of the period. In each period of length , a signal is generated according to the distribution 7.2.1. In a unit length of time, there are −1 realizations of the public signal. For small , the signals over the unit length of time thus become arbitrarily informative in distinguishing between the events that the players had always exerted effort in that time interval, or one player had always shirked.14 Once the repeated game is embedded in continuous time, the monitoring distribution should reﬂect this embedding. In this section, we illustrate using an example motivated by Abreu, Milgrom, and Pearce (1991). We consider two possibilities. First, assume the public monitoring distribution is parameterized by as ρ(y¯ | a) =

e−β ,

if a = EE,

e−µ ,

otherwise,

with 0 < β < µ. When the period length is small, we can view the probability distribution as approximating a Poisson process, where the signal y constitutes an arrival (and signal y¯ denotes the absence of an arrival) of a “bad” signal, and where the instantaneous arrival rate is β if both players exert effort and µ otherwise. Observe that although taking → 0 does make players more patient in the sense that δ → 1, this limit also makes the signals uninformative (both p and q converge to 1), and so 14. This can be interpreted as an intuition for the observation in remark 9.2.1 that the sufﬁcient conditions for the public monitoring folk theorem concern only the statistical identiﬁability of deviations. There are no conditions on the informativeness of the signals.

9.8

■

327

Short Period Length

the structural aspects of the model have changed. On the other hand, players unambiguously become patient as the preference parameter r goes to 0, because in this case δ → 1 whereas no other aspect of the model is affected. We saw in section 7.7.1 that a necessary and sufﬁcient condition for mutual effort to be played in a strongly symmetric equilibrium is (7.7.3), that is, δ[3ρ(y¯ | EE) − 2ρ(y¯ | SE)] ≥ 1, which becomes e−r (3e−β − 2e−µ ) > 1.

(9.8.1)

Taking r → 0 yields 3e−β − 2e−µ > 1, which is simply 3p − 2q > 1 (see (7.2.5)). Suppose we now make the period length arbitrarily small, ﬁxing the players’ discount rate r. The left side of (9.8.1) equals 1 and its derivative equals 2µ − 3β − r for = 0, so (9.8.1) holds for small > 0 if r < 2µ − 3β.

(9.8.2)

If players are sufﬁciently patient that (9.8.2) is satisﬁed, then from (7.7.1), the largest strongly symmetric PPE payoff converges to lim 2 −

→0

1 − e−β β > 0. =2− −β −µ e −e µ−β

Hence, in the “bad news” case, even for arbitrarily short period lengths, it is possible to support some effort in equilibrium. Consider now the “good news” case, where the public monitoring distribution is parameterized by as ρ(y¯ | a) =

1 − e−β ,

if a = EE,

1 − e−µ ,

otherwise,

with 0 < µ < β. The probability distribution approximates a Poisson process where the signal y¯ constitutes an arrival (and signal y denotes the absence of an arrival) of a “good” signal, and where the instantaneous arrival rate is β if both players exert effort and µ otherwise. In the current context, (7.7.3) becomes e−r (1 − 3e−β + 2e−µ ) > 1. Suppose we now make the period length arbitrarily small, ﬁxing the players’ discount rate r. Then, lim e−r (1 − 3e−β + 2e−µ ) = 0,

→0

implying that there is no strongly symmetric perfect public equilibrium with strictly positive payoffs.

328

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

We see then a striking contrast between the “good news” and “bad news” cases. This contrast is exaggerated by the failure of pairwise identiﬁability. If, for example, the game has a product structure, with player i’s signal yi ∈ {yi , y¯i }, distributed as ρ(y¯i | ai ) =

1 − e−β ,

if ai = E,

1 − e−µ ,

if ai = S,

then it is possible to support some effort for small even in the “good news” case. An alternative to considering short period length is to directly analyze continuous time games with public monitoring. We content ourselves with the comment that there are appropriate analogs to many of the ideas in chapter 7 (see Sannikov 2004).

10 Private Strategies in Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring

The techniques presented in chapters 7–9 provide the tools for examining perfect public equilibria. It is common to restrict attention to such equilibria, and doing so is without loss of generality in many cases. For example, the public-monitoring folk theorem (proposition 9.2.1) only relies on public strategies. Moreover, if games have a product structure, all sequential equilibrium outcomes are PPE outcomes (proposition 10.1.1). In this chapter, we explore the impact of allowing for private strategies, that is, strategies that are nontrivial functions of private (rather than public) histories.

10.1

Sequential Equilibrium

The appropriate equilibrium notion when players use private strategies is sequential equilibrium, which we deﬁne at the end of this section. This equilibrium notion combines sequential rationality with consistency conditions on each player’s beliefs over the private histories of other players. Any PPE is a sequential equilibrium. Because any pure strategy is realization equivalent to a public strategy (lemma 7.1.2), any pure strategy sequential equilibrium outcome is also a PPE outcome. Moreover, every mixed strategy is clearly realization equivalent to a mixture over public pure strategies. Thus every Nash equilibrium is realization equivalent to a Nash equilibrium in which each player’s mixture has only public pure strategies in its support. If the analysis could be restricted to either pure strategies or Nash equilibria, there is no need to consider private strategies. However, sequential rationality with mixing requires us to work with behavior strategies. A mixture over pure strategies need not be realization equivalent to any public behavior strategy. For example, consider the twice-played prisoners’ dilemma with imperfect monitoring and with the set of signals ¯ as in section 7.2. Let σˆ 1 and σ˜ 1 be the following pure strategies: {y, y}, σˆ 1 (∅) = σˆ 1 (y) ¯ = E,

σˆ 1 (y) = S,

and ¯ = σ˜ 1 (y) = S. σ˜ 1 (∅) = σ˜ 1 (y) Each of these strategies is obviously public, because behavior is speciﬁed only as a function of the public signal. Now consider a mixed strategy that assigns probability 329

330

Chapter 10

■

Private Strategies

1/2 to each of these public pure strategies. This is by construction a mixture over public strategies. However, the corresponding behavior strategy, denoted by σ1 , is given by σ1 (∅) = and

1 2

◦E+

1 2

◦ S,

σ1 (a1 , y) =

E, if (a1 , y) = (E, y), ¯

S,

otherwise.

This is a private strategy, as the second-period action following signal y¯ depends on the player’s (private) period 1 action. Notice in particular that it does not sufﬁce to specify the second period action as a half/half mixture following signal y. ¯ Doing so assigns positive probability to player 1 histories of the form (E, y, ¯ S, ·) or (S, y, ¯ E, ·), which the half-half mixture of σˆ 1 and σ˜ 1 does not allow. As a consequence, there are mixed strategy Nash equilibria that are not realization equivalent to any Nash equilibrium in public behavior strategies. Restricting attention to public behavior strategies may then exclude some equilibrium outcomes that can be achieved with private strategies. Sequential equilibrium, originally deﬁned for ﬁnite extensive form games (Kreps and Wilson 1982b), has a straightforward deﬁnition in games of public monitoring if the distribution of public signals generated by every action proﬁle has full support. After any private history hti , player i’s belief over the private histories of the other players is then necessarily given by Bayes’ rule (even if player i had deviated in the history hti ). Let σ−i |ht = (σ1 |ht , . . . , σi−1 |ht , σi+1 |ht , . . . , σn |htn ). −i

1

i−1

i+1

Definition Suppose ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y ∈ Y and all a ∈ A. A strategy proﬁle σ is a sequen-

10.1.1 tial equilibrium of the repeated game with public % t monitoring if, for all private t t t histories hi , σi |h is a best reply to E[σ−i |h % hi ]. i

−i

A sequential equilibrium outcome can fail to be a PPE outcome only if players are randomizing and at least one player’s choice is a nontrivial function of his own realized actions as well as his signals. Conditioning on his period t−1 action is of value to player i (because that action itself is private) only if player i’s prediction of others’ period t continuation play depends on i’s action. Even if player i’s best responses are independent of his beliefs about others’ continuation play, appropriately specifying his period t best response as a function of his past actions may create new incentives beyond those achievable in public strategies. Both possibilities require the informativeness of the period t−1 public signal about others’ period t−1 actions to depend on player i’s period t−1 action. This is not the case in games with a product structure (section 9.5), suggesting the following result (Fudenberg and Levine 1994, theorem 5.2):1 Proposition Suppose A is ﬁnite, the game has a product structure, and the short-lived players’

10.1.1 actions are observable. The set of sequential equilibrium payoffs is given by E (δ), the set of PPE payoffs. 1. Intuitively, a sequential equilibrium in a public monitoring game without full-support monitoring is a proﬁle such that after every private history, player i is best responding to the behavior of the other players, given beliefs over the private histories of the other players that are minimally consistent with his own private history.

10.2

10.2

■

331

A Reduced-Form Example

A Reduced-Form Example

We ﬁrst illustrate the potential advantages of private strategies in a two-period game. The ﬁrst-period stage game is (yet again) the prisoners’ dilemma stage game from ﬁgure 1.2.1, reproduced on the left in ﬁgure 10.2.1, and the second period game is given on the right. We think of the second-period game as representing the equilibrium continuation payoffs in an inﬁnitely repeated game, here collapsed into a stage game to simplify the analysis and focus attention on the effects of private strategies. As the labeling and payoffs suggest, we will think of R as a rewarding action and P as a punishing action. The payoff ties in the second-period subgame are necessary for the type of equilibrium we construct. Section 10.4 shows that we can obtain such a pattern of continuation payoffs in the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma. In keeping with this interpretation, we let payoffs in the two-period game, given period 1 and period 2 payoff proﬁles u1 and u2 , be given by (1 − δ)u1 + δu2 . The public monitoring distribution is given by (7.2.1), where the signals {y, y} ¯ are distributed according to p, ρ(y¯ | a) = q, r,

if a = EE, if a = ES or SE,

(10.2.1)

if a = SS.

We assume p=

9 10 ,

q = 45 ,

r = 15 ,

and

δ=

25 27 .

(10.2.2)

Observe that p − q is small, so that any incentives based on shifting the distribution of signals from p ◦ y¯ + (1 − p) ◦ y to q ◦ y¯ + (1 − q) ◦ y are weak. 10.2.1 Pure Strategies Suppose ﬁrst that the players do not have access to a public correlating device. Then the best pure-strategy symmetric perfect public equilibrium payoff is obtained by playing

E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S

R

P

−1, 3

R

8 8 5, 5

0, 85

0, 0

P

8 5, 0

0, 0

Figure 10.2.1 The two-period game for section 10.2, with the ﬁrst-period game on the left, and the second period on the right.

332

Chapter 10

■

Private Strategies

EE in the ﬁrst period, followed by RR in the second if the ﬁrst-period signal is y¯ and 2 40 9 8 (2) + 25 PP otherwise. This provides an expected payoff of 27 27 10 5 = 27 . The ﬁrst-period incentive constraint in the equilibrium we have just presented, that players prefer effort to shirking, is (1 − δ)2 + δp 85 ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δq 85 . Given the values from (10.2.2), this incentive constraint holds with strict inequality (40/27 > 38/27). There is then a sense in which too much of the potential expected payoff in the game is expended in creating incentives, suggesting that a higher payoff could be achieved if incentives could be more ﬁnely tuned. 10.2.2 Public Correlation Suppose now players have access to a public correlating device, allowing for a ﬁner tuning of incentives. The best pure-strategy strongly symmetric PPE payoff is now given by strategies that prescribe E in the ﬁrst period, R in the second period following signal y, ¯ and R with probability φ (with P otherwise) in the second period following signal y. The largest possible payoff is given by setting φ equal to the value that just satisﬁes the incentive constraint for effort in the ﬁrst period, or (1 − δ)(2) + δ p 85 + (1 − p)φ 85 = (1 − δ)(3) + δ q 85 + (1 − q)φ 85 . Under (10.2.2), this equality is solved by φ = 1/2 and the corresponding expected payoff is 42/27. Note that this exceeds the payoff 40/27 achieved without the correlating device. 10.2.3 Mixed Public Strategies The signals in this game are more informative about player 1’s action when player 2 shirks than when she exerts effort. As a result, shirking with positive probability in the ﬁrst period can improve incentives. We have seen examples of this possibility in sections 7.7.2, 8.4.1, and 8.4.5. Let α be the probability that each player i plays E in the ﬁrst period. Assume that RR is played in the second period after the ﬁrst-period signal y, ¯ and that φ is again the probability of playing RR after signal y. Then the incentive constraint for the ﬁrst-period mixture between effort and shirking is α (1 − δ)2 + δ p 85 + (1 − p)φ 85 + (1 − α) (1 − δ)(−1) + δ q 85 + (1 − q)φ 85 = α (1 − δ)(3) + δ q 85 + (1 − q)φ 85 + (1 − α) δ r 85 + (1 − r)φ 85 .

(10.2.3)

The left side of this equality is the payoff to E and the right side the payoff to S, where α and (1 − α) are the probabilities that the opponent exerts effort and shirks.

10.2

■

333

A Reduced-Form Example

We can solve for φ=

11 − 10α . 2(6 − 5α)

(10.2.4)

This fraction exceeds 1/2 whenever α < 1. Hence, ﬁrst-period mixtures allow incentives to be created with a smaller threat of second-period punishment, reﬂecting the more informative monitoring. This increased informativeness is purchased at the cost of some shirking in the ﬁrst period. Substituting (10.2.4) into (10.2.3) to obtain expected payoffs gives 224 − 152α − 30α 2 . 27(6 − 5α) √ 2 For α ∈ [0, 1], this is maximized at α = 65 − 15 3 = 0.969, with a value 1.5566 > 42/27. The beneﬁts of better monitoring outweigh the costs of shirking, and mixed strategies thus allow a (slightly) higher payoff than is possible under pure strategies. 10.2.4 Private Strategies Because the signals about player 1 are particularly informative when 2 shirks, it is natural to ask whether we could do even better by punishing 1 only after a bad signal was observed when 2 shirked. This is a private strategy proﬁle. Each player not only mixes but conditions future behavior on the outcome of the mixture. Suppose players mix between E and S in the ﬁrst period. After observing the signal y, ¯ R is played in the second period. After signal y, a player potentially mixes between R and P , but attaches positive probability to the punishment action P only if that player played S in the ﬁrst period. Let α again be the probability placed on E in the ﬁrst period, and now let ξ denote the probability that a player chooses R in the second period after having chosen S in the ﬁrst period and observed signal y. Players choose R for sure after E in the ﬁrst period, regardless of signal, or after S but observing signal y. ¯ Figure 10.2.2 illustrates these strategies with an automaton. The automaton does not describe the strategy proﬁle; rather, each players’ behavior is described by an automaton (see remark 2.3.1). The proﬁle we describe is symmetric, so the automaton description is common. However, because the strategy described is private, players may end up in different states.

Sy

wξ

wα w0

E y , Ey , Sy

wR

Figure 10.2.2 The automaton of the private strategy described in section 10.2.4. Subscripts on states indicate the speciﬁed behavior.

334

Chapter 10

■

Private Strategies

The incentive constraint for the ﬁrst-period mixture is α (1 − δ)2 + δ 85 + (1 − α) (1 − δ)(−1) + δ q 85 + (1 − q)ξ 85 = α (1 − δ)(3) + δ 85 + (1 − α) δ r 85 + (1 − r)ξ 85 . Solving for ξ gives

11 − 12α , 12(1 − α) which we use to calculate the expected payoff as 29 α + 56 9 . Maximizing α subject 11 to + the constraint ξ ∈ [0, 1] gives α = 11/12 (and ξ = 0), with expected payoff 29 12 56 = 1.5864. We thus have the following ranking of payoffs: 9 ξ=

1.4815 pure strategies

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Repeated Games and Reputations Long-Run Relationships George J. Mailath and Larry Samuelson

1 2006

1 Oxford University Press, Inc., publishes works that further Oxford University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education. Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With ofﬁces in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam

Copyright © 2006 by Oxford University Press Published by Oxford University Press, Inc. 198 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016 www.oup.com Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of Oxford University Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mailath, George Joseph. Repeated games and reputations : long-run relationships / George J. Mailath, Larry Samuelson. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13 978-0-19-530079-6 ISBN 0-19-530079-3 1. Game theory. 2. Economics, Mathematical. I. Samuelson, Larry, 1953– II. Title. HB144.M32 2006 519.3—dc22 2005049518

1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper

To Loretta G JM

To Mark, Brian, and Samantha LS

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Acknowledgments

We thank the many colleagues who have encouraged us throughout this project. In particular, we thank Martin Cripps, Jeffrey Ely, Eduardo Faingold, Drew Fudenberg, Qingmin Liu, Stephen Morris, Georg Nöldeke, Ichiro Obara, Wojciech Olszewski, Andrew Postlewaite, Patrick Rey, Andrzej Skrzypacz, and Ennio Stacchetti for comments on various chapters; Roberto Pinheiro for exceptionally close proofreading; Bo Chen, Emin Dokumaci, Ratul Lahkar, and José Rodrigues-Neto for research assistance; and a large collection of anonymous referees for detailed and helpful reports. We thank Terry Vaughn and Lisa Stallings at Oxford University Press for their help throughout this project. We also thank our coauthors, who have played an important role in shaping our thinking for so many years. Their direct and indirect contributions to this work are signiﬁcant. We thank the University of Copenhagen and University College London for their hospitality in the ﬁnal stages of the book. We thank the National Science Foundation for supporting our research that is described in various chapters.

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Contents

1 Introduction 1.1 Intertemporal Incentives 1.2 The Prisoners’ Dilemma 1.3 Oligopoly 1.4 The Prisoner’s Dilemma under Imperfect Monitoring 1.5 The Product-Choice Game 1.6 Discussion 1.7 A Reader’s Guide 1.8 The Scope of the Book

Part I

1 1 3 4 5 7 8 10 10

Games with Perfect Monitoring 2 The Basic Structure of Repeated Games with Perfect Monitoring 2.1

2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5

2.6

2.7

The Canonical Repeated Game 2.1.1 The Stage Game 2.1.2 Public Correlation 2.1.3 The Repeated Game 2.1.4 Subgame-Perfect Equilibrium of the Repeated Game The One-Shot Deviation Principle Automaton Representations of Strategy Proﬁles Credible Continuation Promises Generating Equilibria 2.5.1 Constructing Equilibria: Self-Generation 2.5.2 Example: Mutual Effort 2.5.3 Example: The Folk Theorem 2.5.4 Example: Constructing Equilibria for Low δ 2.5.5 Example: Failure of Monotonicity 2.5.6 Example: Public Correlation Constructing Equilibria: Simple Strategies and Penal Codes 2.6.1 Simple Strategies and Penal Codes 2.6.2 Example: Oligopoly Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players 2.7.1 Minmax Payoffs 2.7.2 Constraints on Payoffs

15 15 15 17 19 22 24 29 32 37 37 40 41 44 46 49 51 51 54 61 63 66

x

Contents

3 The Folk Theorem with Perfect Monitoring 3.1 3.2

3.3 3.4

3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8

Examples Interpreting the Folk Theorem 3.2.1 Implications 3.2.2 Patient Players 3.2.3 Patience and Incentives 3.2.4 Observable Mixtures The Pure-Action Folk Theorem for Two Players The Folk Theorem with More than Two Players 3.4.1 A Counterexample 3.4.2 Player-Speciﬁc Punishments Non-Equivalent Utilities Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players Convexifying the Equilibrium Payoff Set Without Public Correlation Mixed-Action Individual Rationality

4 How Long Is Forever? 4.1 Is the Horizon Ever Inﬁnite? 4.2 Uncertain Horizons 4.3 Declining Discount Factors 4.4 Finitely Repeated Games 4.5 Approximate Equilibria 4.6 Renegotiation 4.6.1 Finitely Repeated Games 4.6.2 Inﬁnitely Repeated Games

5 Variations on the Game Random Matching 5.1.1 Public Histories 5.1.2 Personal Histories 5.2 Relationships in Context 5.2.1 A Frictionless Market 5.2.2 Future Beneﬁts 5.2.3 Adverse Selection 5.2.4 Starting Small 5.3 Multimarket Interactions 5.4 Repeated Extensive Forms 5.4.1 Repeated Extensive-Form Games Have More Subgames 5.4.2 Player-Speciﬁc Punishments in Repeated Extensive-Form Games 5.4.3 Extensive-Form Games and Imperfect Monitoring 5.4.4 Extensive-Form Games and Weak Individual Rationality 5.4.5 Asynchronous Moves 5.4.6 Simple Strategies 5.1

69 70 72 72 73 75 76 76 80 80 82 87 91 96 101 105 105 106 107 112 118 120 122 134 145 145 146 147 152 153 154 155 158 161 162 163 165 167 168 169 172

xi

Contents

Dynamic Games: Introduction 5.5.1 The Game 5.5.2 Markov Equilibrium 5.5.3 Examples 5.6 Dynamic Games: Foundations 5.6.1 Consistent Partitions 5.6.2 Coherent Consistency 5.6.3 Markov Equilibrium 5.7 Dynamic Games: Equilibrium 5.7.1 The Structure of Equilibria 5.7.2 A Folk Theorem 5.5

6 Applications Price Wars 6.1.1 Independent Price Shocks 6.1.2 Correlated Price Shocks 6.2 Time Consistency 6.2.1 The Stage Game 6.2.2 Equilibrium, Commitment, and Time Consistency 6.2.3 The Inﬁnitely Repeated Game 6.3 Risk Sharing 6.3.1 The Economy 6.3.2 Full Insurance Allocations 6.3.3 Partial Insurance 6.3.4 Consumption Dynamics 6.3.5 Intertemporal Consumption Sensitivity 6.1

Part II

174 175 177 178 186 187 188 190 192 192 195 201 201 201 203 204 204 206 207 208 209 210 212 213 219

Games with (Imperfect) Public Monitoring 7 The Basic Structure of Repeated Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring 7.1

7.2

7.3 7.4 7.5

The Canonical Repeated Game 7.1.1 The Stage Game 7.1.2 The Repeated Game 7.1.3 Recovering a Recursive Structure: Public Strategies and Perfect Public Equilibria A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example 7.2.1 Punishments Happen 7.2.2 Forgiving Strategies 7.2.3 Strongly Symmetric Behavior Implies Inefﬁciency Decomposability and Self-Generation The Impact of Increased Precision The Bang-Bang Result

225 225 225 226 228 232 233 235 239 241 249 251

xii

Contents 7.6 An Example with Short-Lived Players 7.6.1 Perfect Monitoring 7.6.2 Imperfect Public Monitoring of the Long-Lived Player 7.7 The Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Redux 7.7.1 Symmetric Inefﬁciency Revisited 7.7.2 Enforcing a Mixed-Action Proﬁle 7.8 Anonymous Players

8 Bounding Perfect Public Equilibrium Payoffs Decomposing on Half-Spaces The Inefﬁciency of Strongly Symmetric Equilibria Short-Lived Players 8.3.1 The Upper Bound on Payoffs 8.3.2 Binding Moral Hazard 8.4 The Prisoners’ Dilemma 8.4.1 Bounds on Efﬁciency: Pure Actions 8.4.2 Bounds on Efﬁciency: Mixed Actions 8.4.3 A Characterization with Two Signals 8.4.4 Efﬁciency with Three Signals 8.4.5 Efﬁcient Asymmetry 8.1 8.2 8.3

9 The Folk Theorem with Imperfect Public Monitoring 9.1 9.2 9.3

9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7

9.8

Characterizing the Limit Set of PPE Payoffs The Rank Conditions and a Public Monitoring Folk Theorem Perfect Monitoring Characterizations 9.3.1 The Folk Theorem with Long-Lived Players 9.3.2 Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players Enforceability and Identiﬁability Games with a Product Structure Repeated Extensive-Form Games Games of Symmetric Incomplete Information 9.7.1 Equilibrium 9.7.2 A Folk Theorem Short Period Length

255 256 260 264 264 267 269 273 273 278 280 280 281 282 282 284 287 289 291 293 293 298 303 303 303 305 309 311 316 318 320 326

10 Private Strategies in Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring

329

10.1 Sequential Equilibrium 10.2 A Reduced-Form Example 10.2.1 Pure Strategies 10.2.2 Public Correlation 10.2.3 Mixed Public Strategies 10.2.4 Private Strategies 10.3 Two-Period Examples 10.3.1 Equilibrium Punishments Need Not Be Equilibria 10.3.2 Payoffs by Correlation 10.3.3 Inconsistent Beliefs

329 331 331 332 332 333 334 334 337 338

xiii

Contents 10.4 An Inﬁnitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma 10.4.1 Public Transitions 10.4.2 An Inﬁnitely Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma: Indifference

11 Applications 11.1 Oligopoly with Imperfect Monitoring 11.1.1 The Game 11.1.2 Optimal Collusion 11.1.3 Which News Is Bad News? 11.1.4 Imperfect Collusion 11.2 Repeated Adverse Selection 11.2.1 General Structure 11.2.2 An Oligopoly with Private Costs: The Game 11.2.3 A Uniform-Price Equilibrium 11.2.4 A Stationary-Outcome Separating Equilibrium 11.2.5 Efﬁciency 11.2.6 Nonstationary-Outcome Equilibria 11.3 Risk Sharing 11.4 Principal-Agent Problems 11.4.1 Hidden Actions 11.4.2 Incomplete Contracts: The Stage Game 11.4.3 Incomplete Contracts: The Repeated Game 11.4.4 Risk Aversion: The Stage Game 11.4.5 Risk Aversion: Review Strategies in the Repeated Game

Part III

340 340 343 347 347 347 348 350 352 354 354 355 356 357 359 360 365 370 370 371 372 374 375

Games with Private Monitoring 12 Private Monitoring 12.1 A Two-Period Example 12.1.1 Almost Public Monitoring 12.1.2 Conditionally Independent Monitoring 12.1.3 Intertemporal Incentives from Second-Period 12.2 12.3

12.4 12.5

Randomization Private Monitoring Games: Basic Structure Almost Public Monitoring: Robustness in the Inﬁnitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma 12.3.1 The Forgiving Proﬁle 12.3.2 Grim Trigger Independent Monitoring: A Belief-Based Equilibrium for the Inﬁnitely Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma A Belief-Free Example

13 Almost Public Monitoring Games 13.1 When Is Monitoring Almost Public? 13.2 Nearby Games with Almost Public Monitoring

385 385 387 389 392 394 397 398 400 404 410 415 415 418

xiv

Contents 13.2.1 Payoffs 13.2.2 Continuation Values 13.2.3 Best Responses 13.2.4 Equilibrium 13.3 Public Proﬁles with Bounded Recall 13.4 Failure of Coordination under Unbounded Recall 13.4.1 Examples 13.4.2 Incentives to Deviate 13.4.3 Separating Proﬁles 13.4.4 Rich Monitoring 13.4.5 Coordination Failure 13.5 Patient Players 13.5.1 Patient Strictness 13.5.2 Equilibria in Nearby Games 13.6 A Folk Theorem

14 Belief-Free Equilibria in Private Monitoring Games 14.1 Deﬁnition and Examples 14.1.1 Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma with Perfect Monitoring 14.1.2 Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma with Private Monitoring 14.2 Strong Self-Generation

Part IV

418 419 421 421 423 425 425 427 428 432 434 434 435 437 441 445 445 447 451 453

Reputations 15 Reputations with Short-Lived Players 15.1 The Adverse Selection Approach to Reputations 15.2 Commitment Types 15.3 Perfect Monitoring Games 15.3.1 Building a Reputation 15.3.2 The Reputation Bound 15.3.3 An Example: Time Consistency 15.4 Imperfect Monitoring Games 15.4.1 Stackelberg Payoffs 15.4.2 The Reputation Bound 15.4.3 Small Players with Idiosyncratic Signals 15.5 Temporary Reputations 15.5.1 Asymptotic Beliefs 15.5.2 Uniformly Disappearing Reputations 15.5.3 Asymptotic Equilibrium Play 15.6 Temporary Reputations: The Proof of Proposition 15.5.1 15.6.1 Player 2’s Posterior Beliefs 15.6.2 Player 2’s Beliefs about Her Future Behavior

459 459 463 466 470 474 477 478 480 484 492 493 494 496 497 500 500 502

xv

Contents 15.6.3 Player 1’s Beliefs about Player 2’s Future Behavior 15.6.4 Proof of Proposition 15.5.1

16 Reputations with Long-Lived Players 16.1 The Basic Issue 16.2 Perfect Monitoring and Minmax-Action Reputations 16.2.1 Minmax-Action Types and Conﬂicting Interests 16.2.2 Examples 16.2.3 Two-Sided Incomplete Information 16.3 Weaker Reputations for Any Action 16.4 Imperfect Public Monitoring 16.5 Commitment Types Who Punish 16.6 Equal Discount Factors 16.6.1 Example 1: Common Interests 16.6.2 Example 2: Conﬂicting Interests 16.6.3 Example 3: Strictly Dominant Action Games 16.6.4 Example 4: Strictly Conﬂicting Interests 16.6.5 Bounded Recall 16.6.6 Reputations and Bargaining 16.7 Temporary Reputations

17 Finitely Repeated Games 17.1 The Chain Store Game 17.2 The Prisoners’ Dilemma 17.3 The Product-Choice Game 17.3.1 The Last Period 17.3.2 The First Period, Player 1 17.3.3 The First Period, Player 2

18 Modeling Reputations 18.1 An Alternative Model of Reputations 18.1.1 Modeling Reputations 18.1.2 The Market 18.1.3 Reputation with Replacements 18.1.4 How Different Is It? 18.2 The Role of Replacements 18.3 Good Types and Bad Types 18.3.1 Bad Types 18.3.2 Good Types 18.4 Reputations with Common Consumers 18.4.1 Belief-Free Equilibria with Idiosyncratic Consumers 18.4.2 Common Consumers 18.4.3 Reputations 18.4.4 Replacements 18.4.5 Continuity at the Boundary and Markov Equilibria 18.4.6 Competitive Markets

503 509 511 511 515 515 518 520 521 524 531 533 534 537 540 541 544 546 547 549 550 554 560 562 562 565 567 568 568 570 573 576 576 580 580 581 584 585 586 587 588 590 594

xvi

Contents 18.5 Discrete Choices 18.6 Lost Consumers 18.6.1 The Purchase Game 18.6.2 Bad Reputations: The Stage Game 18.6.3 The Repeated Game 18.6.4 Incomplete Information 18.6.5 Good Firms 18.6.6 Captive Consumers 18.7 Markets for Reputations 18.7.1 Reputations Have Value 18.7.2 Buying Reputations

596 599 599 600 601 603 607 608 610 610 613

Bibliography

619

Symbols

629

Index

631

Repeated Games and Reputations

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1 Introduction

1.1

Intertemporal Incentives

In Puccini’s opera Gianni Schicchi, the deceased Buoso Donati has left his estate to a monastery, much to the consternation of his family.1 Before anyone outside the family learns of the death, Donati’s relatives engage the services of the actor Gianni Schicchi, who is to impersonate Buoso Donati as living but near death, to write a new will leaving the fortune to the family, and then die. Anxious that Schicchi do nothing to risk exposing the plot, the family explains that there are severe penalties for tampering with a will and that any misstep puts Schicchi at risk. All goes well until Schicchi (acting as Buoso Donati) writes the new will, at which point he instructs that the entire estate be left to the great actor Gianni Schicchi. The dumbstruck relatives watch in horror, afraid to object lest their plot be exposed and they pay the penalties with which they had threatened Schicchi. Ron Luciano, who worked in professional baseball as an umpire, occasionally did not feel well enough to umpire. In his memoir, Luciano writes,2 Over a period of time I learned to trust certain catchers so much that I actually let them umpire for me on bad days. The bad days usually followed the good nights. . . . On those days there wasn’t much I could do but take two aspirins and call as little as possible. If someone I trusted was catching . . . I’d tell them, “Look, it’s a bad day. You’d better take it for me. If it’s a strike, hold your glove in place for an extra second. If it’s a ball, throw it right back. And please, don’t yell.” . . . No one I worked with ever took advantage of the situation. In each case, the prospect for opportunistic behavior arises. Gianni Schicchi sees a chance to grab a fortune and does so. Any of Luciano’s catchers could have tipped the game in their favor by making the appropriate calls, secure in the knowledge that Luciano would not expose them for doing his job, but none did so. What is the 1. Our description of Gianni Schicchi is taken from Hamermesh (2004, p. 164) who uses it to illustrate the incentives that arise in isolated interactions. 2. The use of this passage (originally from Luciano and Fisher 1982, p. 166) as an illustration of the importance of repeated interactions is due to Axelrod (1984, p. 178), who quotes and discusses it.

1

2

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

2

1

A

B

C

A

5, 5

0, 0

12, 0

B

0, 0

2, 2

0, 0

C

0, 12

0, 0

10, 10

Figure 1.1.1 A modiﬁed coordination game. Pure-strategy Nash equilibria include AA and BB but not CC.

difference between the two situations? Schicchi anticipates no further dealings with the family of Buoso Donati. In the language of game theory, theirs is a one-shot game. Luciano’s catchers know there is a good chance they will again play games umpired by Luciano and that opportunistic behavior may have adverse future consequences, even if currently unexposed. Theirs is a repeated game. These two stories illustrate the basic principle that motivates interest in repeated games: Repeated interactions give rise to incentives that differ fundamentally from those of isolated interactions. As a simple illustration, consider the game in ﬁgure 1.1.1. This game has two strict Nash equilibria, AA and BB. When this game is played once, players can do no better than to play AA for a payoff of 5. If the game is played twice, with payoffs summed over the two periods, there is an equilibrium with a higher average payoff. The key is to use ﬁrst-period play to coordinate equilibrium play in the second period. The players choose CC in the ﬁrst period and AA in the second. Any other ﬁrst-period outcome leads to BB in the second period. Should one player attempt to exploit the other by playing A in the ﬁrst period, he gains 2 in the ﬁrst period but loses 3 in the second. The deviation is unproﬁtable, and so we have an equilibrium with a total payoff of 15 to each player. We see these differences between repeated and isolated interactions throughout our daily lives. Suppose, on taking your car for a routine oil change, you are told that an engine problem has been discovered and requires an immediate and costly repair. Would your conﬁdence that this diagnosis is accurate depend on whether you regularly do business with the service provider or whether you are passing through on vacation? Would you be more willing to buy a watch in a jewelry store than on the street corner? Would you be more or less inclined to monitor the quality of work done by a provider who is going out of business after doing your job? Repeated games are the primary tool for understanding such situations. This preliminary chapter presents four examples illustrating the issues that arise in repeated games.

1.2

■

3

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

2 E

1

S

E

2, 2

S

3, −1

−1, 3 0, 0

Figure 1.2.1 The prisoners’ dilemma.

1.2

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

The prisoners’ dilemma is perhaps the best known and most studied (and most abused) of games.3 We will frequently use the example given in ﬁgure 1.2.1. We interpret the prisoners’ dilemma as a partnership game in which each player can either exert effort (E) or shirk (S).4 Shirking is strictly dominant, while higher payoffs for both players are achieved if both exert effort. In an isolated interaction, there is no escape from this “dilemma.” We must either change the game so that it is not a prisoners’ dilemma or must accept the inefﬁcient outcome. Any argument in defense of effort must ultimately be an argument that either the numbers in the matrix do not represent the players preferences, or that some other aspect of the game is not really descriptive of the actual interaction. Things change considerably if the game is repeated. Suppose the game is played in periods 0, 1, 2, . . . . The players make their choices simultaneously in each period, and then observe that period’s outcome before proceeding to the next. Let ait and ajt be the actions (exert effort or shirk) chosen by players i and j in period t and let ui be player i’s utility function, as given in ﬁgure 1.2.1. Player i maximizes the normalized discounted sum of payoffs

(1 − δ)

∞

δ t ui (ait , ajt ),

t=0

where δ ∈ [0, 1) is the common discount factor. Suppose that the strategy of each player is to exert effort in the ﬁrst period and to continue to do so in every subsequent period as long as both players have previously exerted effort, while shirking in all other circumstances. Suppose ﬁnally that period τ has been reached, and no one has 3. Binmore (1994, chapter 3) discusses the many (unsuccessful) attempts to extract cooperation from the prisoners’ dilemma. 4. Traditionally, the dominant action is called defect and the dominated action cooperate. In our view, the words cooperate and defect are too useful to restrict their usage to actions in a single (even if important) game.

4

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

yet shirked. What should player i do? One possibility is to continue to exert effort, and in fact to do so forever. Given the strategy of the other player, this yields a (normalized, discounted) payoff of 2. The only other candidate for an optimal strategy is to shirk in period τ (if one is ever going to shirk, one might as well do it now), after which one can do no better than shirk in all subsequent periods (since player j will do so), to t−τ 0 = 3(1 − δ). Continued effort is optimal if δ for a payoff of (1 − δ) 3 + ∞ t=τ +1 2 ≥ 3(1 − δ), or δ ≥ 13 . By making future play depend on current actions, we can thus alter the incentives that shape these current actions, in this case allowing equilibria in which the players exert effort. For these new incentives to have an effect on behavior, the players must be sufﬁciently patient, and hence future payoffs sufﬁciently important. This is not the only equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma. It is also an equilibrium for each player to relentlessly shirk, regardless of past play. Indeed, for any payoffs that are feasible in the stage game and strictly individually rational (i.e., give each player a positive payoff), there is an equilibrium of the repeated game producing those payoffs, if the players are sufﬁciently patient. This is an example of the folk theorem for repeated games.

1.3

Oligopoly

We can recast this result in an economic context. Consider the Cournot oligopoly model. There are n ﬁrms, denoted by i = 1, . . . , n, who costlessly produce an identical product. The ﬁrms simultaneously choose quantities of output, with ﬁrm i’s output denoted by ai ∈ R+ and with the market price then given by 1 − ni=1 ai . Given these choices, the proﬁts of ﬁrm j are given by uj (a1 , . . . , an ) = n aj 1 − i=1 ai . For any number of ﬁrms n, this game has a unique Nash equilibrium, which is symmetric and calls for each ﬁrm i to produce output a N and earn proﬁts ui (a N , . . . , a N ), where5 1 , n+1 2 1 ui (a N , . . . , a N ) = . n+1 aN =

and

When n = 1, this is a monopoly market. As the number of ﬁrms n grows arbitrarily large, the equilibrium outcome approaches that of a competitive market, with zero price and total quantity equal to one, while the consumer surplus increases and the welfare loss prompted by imperfect competition decreases. 5. Firm j ’s ﬁrst-order condition for proﬁt maximization is 1 − 2aj − i=j ai = 0 or aj = 1 − A, where A is the total quantity produced in the market. It is then immediate that the equilibrium must be symmetric, giving a ﬁrst-order condition of 1 − (n + 1)a N = 0.

1.4

■

Imperfect Monitoring

5

The analysis of imperfectly competitive markets has advanced far beyond this simple model. However, the intuition remains that less concentrated markets are more competitive and yield higher consumer welfare, providing the organizing theme for many discussions of merger and antitrust policy. It may instead be reasonable to view the interaction between a handful of ﬁrms as a repeated game.6 The welfare effects of market concentration and the forces behind these effects are now much less clear. Much like the case of the prisoners’ dilemma, consider strategies in which each ﬁrm produces 1/2n as long as every ﬁrm has done so in every previous period, and otherwise produces output 1/(n + 1). The former output allows the ﬁrms to jointly reproduce the monopoly outcome in this market, splitting the proﬁts equally, whereas the latter is the Nash equilibrium of the stage game. As long as the discount factor is sufﬁciently high, these strategies are a subgame-perfect equilibrium.7 Total monopoly proﬁts are 1/4 and the proﬁts of each ﬁrm are given by 1/4n in each period of this equilibrium. The increased payoffs available to a ﬁrm who cheats on the implicit agreement to produce the monopoly output are overwhelmed by the future losses involved in switching to the stagegame equilibrium. If these “collusive” strategies are the equilibrium realized in the repeated game, then reductions in the number of ﬁrms may have no effect on consumer welfare at all. No longer can we regard less concentrated markets as more competitive.

1.4

The Prisoners’ Dilemma under Imperfect Monitoring

Our ﬁrst two examples have been games of perfect monitoring, in the sense that the players can observe each others’ actions. Consider again the prisoners’ dilemma of section 1.2, but now suppose a player can observe the outcome of the joint venture but cannot observe whether his partner has exerted effort. In addition, the outcome is either a success or a failure and is a random function of the partners’ actions. A success appears with probability p if both partners exert effort, with probability q if one exerts effort and one shirks, and probability r if both shirk, where p > q > r > 0. This is now a game of imperfect public monitoring. It is clear that the strategies presented in section 1.2 for sustaining effort as an equilibrium outcome in the repeated game—exert effort in the absence of any shirking, and shirk otherwise—will no longer 6. To evaluate whether the stage game or the repeated game is a more likely candidate for usefully examining a market, one might reasonably begin with questions about the qualitative nature of behavior in that market. When ﬁrm i sets its current quantity or price, does it consider the effect that this quantity and price might have on the future behavior of its rivals? For example, does an airline wonder whether a fare cut will prompt similar cuts on the part of its competitors? Does an auto manufacturer ask whether rebates and ﬁnancial incentives will prompt similar initiatives on the part of other auto manufacturers? If so, then a repeated game is the obvious tool for modelling the interaction. 7. After some algebra, the condition is that 1 1 1 n+1 2 1 −δ ≤ . 16 n 1 − δ 4n (n + 1)2

6

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

work, because players cannot tell when someone has shirked. However, all is not lost. Suppose the players begin by exerting effort and do so as long as the venture is successful, switching to permanent shirking as soon as a failure is observed. For sufﬁciently patient players, this is an equilibrium (section 7.2.1 derives the necessary condition δ ≥ 1/[3p − 2q]). The equilibrium embodies a rather bleak future, in the sense that a failure will eventually occur and the players will shirk thereafter, but supports at least some effort. The difﬁculty here is that the “punishment” supporting the incentives to exert effort, consisting of permanent shirking after the ﬁrst failure, is often more severe than necessary. This was no problem in the perfect-monitoring case, where the punishment was safely off the equilibrium path and hence need never be carried out. Here, the imperfect monitoring ensures that punishments will occur. The players would thus prefer the punishments be as lenient as possible, consistent with creating the appropriate incentives for exerting effort. Chapter 7 explains how equilibria can be constructed with less severe punishments. Imperfect monitoring fundamentally changes the nature of the equilibrium. If nontrivial intertemporal incentives are to be created, then over the course of equilibrium play the players will ﬁnd themselves in a punishment phase inﬁnitely often. This happens despite the fact that the players know, when the punishment is triggered by a failure, that both have in fact followed the equilibrium prescription of exerting effort. Then why do they carry through the punishment? Given that the other players are entering the punishment phase, it is a best response to do likewise. But why would equilibria arise that routinely punish players for offenses not committed? Because the expected payoffs in such equilibria can be higher than those produced by simply playing a Nash equilibrium of the stage game. Given the inevitability of punishments, one might suspect that the set of feasible outcomes in games of imperfect monitoring is rather limited. In particular, it appears as if the inevitability of some periods in which players shirk makes efﬁcient outcomes impossible. However, chapter 9 establishes conditions under which we again have a folk theorem result. The key is to work with asymmetric punishments, sliding along the frontier of efﬁcient payoffs so as to reward some players as others are penalized.8 There may thus be a premium on asymmetric strategies, despite the lack of any asymmetry in the game. The players in this example at least have the advantage that the information they receive is public. Either both observe a success or both a failure. This ensures that they can coordinate their future behavior, as a function of current outcomes, so as to create the appropriate current incentives. Chapters 12–14 consider the case of private monitoring, in which the players potentially receive different private information about what has transpired. It now appears as if the ability to coordinate future behavior in response to current events has evaporated completely, and with it the ability to support any outcome other than persistent shirking. Perhaps surprisingly, there is still considerable latitude for equilibria featuring effort. 8. This requires that the imperfect monitoring give players (noisy) indications not only that a deviation from equilibrium play has occurred but also who might have been the deviator. The two-signal example in this section fails this condition.

1.5

■

7

The Product-Choice Game

2 h

H

2, 3

0, 2

L

3, 0

1, 1

1

Figure 1.5.1 The product-choice game.

1.5

The Product-Choice Game

Consider the game shown in ﬁgure 1.5.1. Think of player 1 as a ﬁrm who can exert either high effort (H ) or low effort (L) in the production of its output. Player 2 is a consumer who can buy either a high-priced product, h, or a low-priced product, . For example, we might think of player 1 as a restaurant whose menu features both elegant dinners and hamburgers, or as a surgeon who treats respiratory problems with either heart surgery or folk remedies. Player 2 prefers the high-priced product if the ﬁrm has exerted high effort, but prefers the low-priced product if the ﬁrm has not. One might prefer a ﬁne dinner or heart surgery from a chef or doctor who exerts high effort, while preferring fast food or an ineffective but unobtrusive treatment from a shirker. The ﬁrm prefers that consumers purchase the high-priced product and is willing to commit to high effort to induce that choice by the consumer. In a simultaneous move game, however, the ﬁrm cannot observably choose effort before the consumer chooses the product. Because high effort is costly, the ﬁrm prefers low effort, no matter the choice of the consumer. The stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium, in which the ﬁrm exerts low effort and the consumer purchases the low-priced product. Suppose the game is played inﬁnitely often, with perfect monitoring. In doing so, we will often interpret player 2 not as a single player but as a succession of short-lived players, each of whom plays the game only once. We assume that each new short-lived player can observe signals about the ﬁrm’s previous choices.9 As long as the ﬁrm is sufﬁciently patient, there is an equilibrium in the repeated game in which the ﬁrm exerts high effort and consumers purchase the high-priced product. The ﬁrm is deterred from taking the immediate payoff boost accompanying low effort by the prospect of future consumers then purchasing the low-priced product.10 Again, however, there are other equilibria, including one in which low effort is exerted and the low priced product purchased in every period.

9. If this is not the case, we have a large collection of effectively unrelated single-shot games that happen to have a common player on one side, rather than a repeated game. 10. Purchasing the high-priced product is a best response for the consumer to high effort, so that no incentive issues arise concerning player 2’s behavior. When consumers are short-lived, there is no prospect for using future play to alter current incentives.

8

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

Now suppose that consumers are not entirely certain of the characteristics of the ﬁrm. They may attach high probability to the ﬁrm’s being “normal,” meaning that it has the payoffs just given, but they also entertain some (possibly very small) probability that they face a ﬁrm who fortuitously has a technology or some other characteristic that ensures high effort. Refer to the latter as the “commitment” type of ﬁrm. This is now a game of incomplete information, with the consumers uncertain of the ﬁrm’s type. As long as the ﬁrm is sufﬁciently patient, then in any Nash equilibrium of the repeated game, the ﬁrm’s payoff must be arbitrarily close to 2. This result holds no matter how unlikely consumers think the commitment type, though increasing patience is required from the normal ﬁrm as the commitment type becomes less likely. To see the intuition behind this result, suppose that we have a candidate equilibrium in which the normal ﬁrm receives a payoff less than 2 − ε. Then the normal and commitment types must be making different choices over the course of the repeated game, because an equilibrium in which they behave identically would induce consumers to choose h and would yield a payoff of 2. Now, one option open to the normal ﬁrm is to mimic the behavior of the commitment type. If the normal ﬁrm does so over a sufﬁciently long period of time, then the short-run players (who expect the normal type of ﬁrm to behave differently) will become convinced that the ﬁrm is actually the commitment type and will play their best response of h. Once this happens, the normal ﬁrm thereafter earns a payoff of 2. Of course, it may take a while for this to happen, and the ﬁrm may have to endure much lower payoffs in the meantime, but these initial payoffs are not very important if the ﬁrm is patient. If the ﬁrm is patient enough, it thus has a strategy available that ensures a payoff arbitrarily close to 2. Our initial hypothesis, that the ﬁrm’s equilibrium payoff fell short of 2 − ε, must then have been incorrect. Any equilibrium must give the (sufﬁciently patient) normal type of ﬁrm a payoff above 2 − ε. The common interpretation of this argument is that the normal ﬁrm can acquire and maintain a reputation for behaving like the commitment type. This reputationbuilding possibility, which excludes many of the equilibrium outcomes of the completeinformation game, may appear to be quite special. Why should consumers’ uncertainty about the ﬁrm take precisely the form we have assumed? What happens if there is a single buyer who reappears in each period, so that the buyer also faces intertemporal incentive considerations and may also consider building a reputation? However, the result generalizes far beyond the special structure of this example (chapter 15).

1.6

Discussion

The unifying theme of work in repeated games is that links between current and future behavior can create incentives that would not be apparent if one examined a current interaction in isolation. We routinely rely on the importance of such links in our daily lives. Markets create boundaries within which a vast variety of behavior is possible. These markets can function effectively only if there is a shared understanding of what constitutes appropriate behavior. Trade in many markets involves goods and services

1.6

■

Discussion

9

whose characteristics are sufﬁciently difﬁcult to verify as to make legal enforcement a hopelessly clumsy tool. This is an especially important consideration in markets involving expert providers, with the markets for medical care and a host of maintenance and repair services being the most prominent examples, in which the party providing the service is also best positioned to assess the service. More generally, legal sanctions cannot explain why people routinely refrain from opportunistic behavior, such as attempting to renegotiate prices, taking advantage of sunk costs, or cheating on a transaction. But if such behavior reigned unchecked, our markets would collapse. The common force organizing market transactions is the prospect of future interactions. We decline opportunities to renege on deals or turn them to our advantage because we expect to have future dealings with the other party. The development of trading practices that transferred enough information to create effective intertemporal incentives was a turning point in the development of our modern market economy (e.g., Greif 1997, 2005; Greif, Milgrom, and Weingast 1994). Despite economists’ emphasis on markets, many of the most critical activities in our lives take place outside of markets. We readily cede power and authority to some people, either formally through a political process or through informal acquiesence. We have social norms governing when one is allowed to take advantage of another and when one should refrain from doing so. We have conventions for how families are formed, including who is likely to mate with whom, and how they are organized, including who has an obligation to support whom and who can expect resources from whom. Our society relies on institutions to perform some functions, whereas other quite similar functions are performed outside of institutions—the helpless elderly are routinely institutionalized, but not infants. A unifying view of these observations is that they reﬂect equilibria of the repeated game that we implicitly play with one another.11 It is then no surprise, given the tendency for repeated games to have multiple equilibria, that we see great variation across the world in how societies and cultures are organized. This same multiplicity opens the door to the possibility that we might think about designing our society to function more effectively. The theory of repeated games provides the tools for this task. The best known results in the theory of repeated games, the folk theorems, focus attention on the multiplicity of equilibria in such games, a source of great consternation for some. We consider multiple equilibria a virtue—how else can one hope to explain the richness of behavior that we observe around us? It is also important to note that the folk theorem characterizes the payoffs available to arbitrarily patient players. Much of our interest and much of the work in this book concerns cases in which players are patient enough for intertemporal incentives to have some effect, but not arbitrarily patient. In addition, we are concerned with the properties of equilibrium behavior as well as payoffs. 11. Ellickson (1991) provides a discussion of how neighbors habitually rely on informal intertemporal arrangements to mediate their interactions rather than relying exclusively on current incentives, even when the latter are readily available. Binmore (1994, 1998) views an understanding of the incentives created by repeated interactions as being sufﬁciently common as to appropriately replace previous notions, such as the categorical imperative, as the foundation for theories of social justice.

10

Chapter 1

1.7

■

Introduction

A Reader’s Guide

Chapter 2 is the obvious point of departure, introducing the basic tools for working with repeated games, including the “dynamic programming” approach to repeated games. The reader then faces a choice. One can proceed through the chapters in part I of the book, treating games of perfect monitoring. Chapter 3 uses constructive arguments to prove the folk theorem. Chapter 4 examines a number of issues, such as what we should make of an inﬁnite horizon, that arise in interpreting repeated games, while chapter 5 pushes the analysis beyond the conﬁnes of the canonical repeated game. Chapter 6 illustrates the techniques with a collection of economic applications. Alternatively, one can jump directly to part II. Here, chapters 7 and 8 present more powerful (though initially seemingly more abstract) techniques that allow a uniﬁed treatment of games of perfect and imperfect monitoring. These allow us to work with the limiting case of perfectly patient players as well as cases in which players may be less patient and in which the sufﬁcient conditions for a folk theorem fail. Chapter 9 presents the public monitoring folk theorem, and chapter 10 explores features that arise out of imperfections in the monitoring process. Chapter 11 again provides economic illustrations. The reader now faces another choice. Part III (chapters 12–14) considers the case of private monitoring. Here, we expect a familiarity with the material in chapter 7. Alternatively, the reader can proceed to part IV, on reputations, whether arriving from part I or part II. Chapters 15 and 16 form the core here, presenting the classical reputation results for games with a single long-lived player and for games with multiple long-lived players, with the remaining chapters exploring extensions and alternative formulations. For an epilogue, see Samuelson (2006, section 6).

1.8

The Scope of the Book

The analysis of long-run relationships is relevant for virtually every area of economics. The literature on intertemporal incentives is vast. If a treatment of the subject is to be kept manageable, some things must be excluded. We have not attempted a comprehensive survey or history of the literature. Our canonical setting is one in which a ﬁxed stage game is played in each of an inﬁnite number of time periods by players who maximize the average discounted payoffs. We concentrate on cases in which players have the same discount factor (see remark 2.1.4) or on cases in which long-lived players with common discount factors are joined by myopic short-lived players. We are sometimes interested in cases in which the players are quite patient, typically captured by examining the limit as their discount factors approach 1, because intertemporal incentives are most effective with patient players. An alternative is to work directly with arbitrarily patient players, using criteria such as the limit-ofthe-means payoffs or the overtaking criteria to evaluate payoffs. We touch on this subject brieﬂy (section 3.2.2), but otherwise restrict attention to discounted games.

1.8

■

The Scope of the Book

11

In particular, we are also often interested in cases with nontrivial intertemporal incentives, but sufﬁcient impatience to impose constraints on equilibrium behavior. In addition, the no-discounting case is more useful for studying payoffs than behavior. We are interested not only in players’ payoffs but also in the strategies that deliver these payoffs. We discuss ﬁnitely repeated games (section 4.4 and chapter 17) only enough to argue that there is in general no fundamental discontinuity when passing from ﬁnite to inﬁnitely repeated games. The analyses of ﬁnite and inﬁnite horizon games are governed by the same conceptual issues. We then concentrate on inﬁnitely repeated games, where a more convenient body of recursive techniques generally allows a more powerful analysis. We concentrate on cases in which the stage game is identical across periods. In a dynamic game, the stage game evolves over the course of the repeated interaction in response to actions taken by the players.12 Dynamic games are also referred to as stochastic games, emphasizing the potential randomness in the evolution of the state. We offer an introduction to such issues in sections 5.5–5.7, suggesting Mertens (2002), Sorin (2002), and Vieille (2002) as introductions to the literature. A literature in its own right has grown around the study of differential games, or perfect-monitoring dynamic games played in continuous time, much of it in engineering and mathematics. As a result of the continuous time setting, the techniques for working with such games resemble those of control theory, whereas those of repeated games more readily prompt analogies to dynamic programming. We say nothing about such games, suggesting Friedman (1994) and Clemhout and Wan (1994) for introductions to the topic. The ﬁrst three parts of this book consider games of complete information, where players share identical information about the structure of the game. In contrast, many economic applications are concerned with cases of incomplete information. A seller may not know the buyer’s utility function. A buyer may not know whether a ﬁrm plans to continue in business or is on the verge of absconding. A potential entrant may not know whether the existing ﬁrm can wage a price war with impunity or stands to lose tremendously from doing so. In the ﬁnal part of this book, we consider a special class of games of incomplete information whose study has been particularly fruitful, namely, reputation games. A more general treatment of games of incomplete information is given by Zamir (1992) and Forges (1992). The key to the incentives that arise in repeated games is the ability to establish a link between current and future play. If this is to be done, players must be able to observe or monitor current play. Much of our work is organized around assumptions about players’ abilities to monitor others’ behavior. Imperfections in monitoring can impose constraints on equilibrium payoffs. A number of publications have shown that 12. For example, the oligopolists in section 1.3 might also have the opportunity to invest in costreducing research and development in each period. Each period then brings a new stage game, characterized by the cost levels relevant for the period, along with a new opportunity to affect future stage games as well as secure a payoff in the current game. Inventory levels for a ﬁrm, debt levels for a government, education levels for a worker, or weapons stocks for a country may all be sources of similar intertemporal evolution in a stage game. Somewhat further aﬁeld, a bargaining game is a dynamic game, with the stage game undergoing a rather dramatic transformation to becoming a trivial game in which nothing happens once an agreement is reached.

12

Chapter 1

■

Introduction

these constraints can be relaxed if players have the ability to communicate with one another (e.g., Compte 1998 and Kandori and Matsushima 1998). We do not consider such possibilities. We say nothing here about the reputations of expert advisors. An expert may have preferences about the actions of a decision maker whom he advises, but the advice itself is cheap talk, in the sense that it affects the expert’s payoff only through its effect on the decision maker’s action. If this interaction occurs once, then we have a straightforward cheap talk game whose study was pioneered by Crawford and Sobel (1982). If the interaction is repeated, then the expert’s recommendations have an effect not only on current actions but also possibly on how much inﬂuence the expert will have in the future. The expert may then prefer to hedge the current recommendation in an attempt to be more inﬂuential in the future (e.g., Morris 2001). Finally, the concept of a reputation has appeared in a number of contexts, some of them quite different from those that appear in this book, in both the academic literature and popular use. Firms offering warranties are often said to be cultivating reputations for high quality, advertising campaigns are designed to create a reputation for trendiness, forecasters are said to have reputations for accuracy, or advisors for giving useful counsel. These concepts of reputation touch on ideas similar to those with which we work in a number of places. We have no doubt that the issues surrounding reputations are much richer than those we capture here. We regard this area as a particularly important one for further work.

Part I Games with Perfect Monitoring

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2 The Basic Structure of Repeated Games with Perfect Monitoring

2.1

The Canonical Repeated Game

2.1.1 The Stage Game The construction of the repeated game begins with a stage game. There are n players, numbered 1, . . . , n. We refer to choices in the stage game as actions, reserving strategy for behavior in the repeated game. The set of pure actions available to player i in the stage game is denoted Ai , with typical element ai . The set of pure action proﬁles is given by A ≡ i Ai . We assume each Ai is a compact subset of the Euclidean space Rk for some k. Some of the results further assume each Ai is ﬁnite. Stage game payoffs are given by a continuous function,

u: Ai → R n . i

The set of mixed actions for player i is denoted by (Ai ), with typical element αi , and the set of mixed proﬁles by i (Ai ). The payoff function is extended to mixed actions by taking expectations. The set of stage-game payoffs generated by the pure action proﬁles in A is F ≡ {v ∈ Rn : ∃a ∈ A s.t. v = u(a)}. The set of feasible payoffs, F † ≡ coF , is the convex hull of the set of payoffs F .1 As we will see, for sufﬁciently patient players, intertemporal averaging allows us to obtain payoffs in F † \F . A payoff v ∈ F † is inefﬁcient if there exists another payoff v ∈ F † with vi > vi for all i; the payoff v strictly dominates v. A payoff is efﬁcient (or Pareto efﬁcient) if it is not inefﬁcient. If, for v, v ∈ F † , vi ≥ vi for all i with a strict inequality for some i, then v weakly dominates v. A feasible payoff is strongly efﬁcient if it is efﬁcient and not weakly dominated by any other feasible payoff. By Nash’s (1951) existence theorem, if the stage game is ﬁnite, then it has a (possibly mixed) Nash equilibrium. In general, because payoffs are given by contin uous functions on the compact set i Ai , it follows from Glicksberg’s (1952) ﬁxed point theorem that the inﬁnite stage games we consider also have Nash equilibria. It 1. The convex hull of a set A ⊂ Rn , denoted coA , is the smallest convex set containing A .

15

16

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

is common when working with inﬁnite action stage games to additionally require that the action spaces be convex and ui quasi-concave in ai , so that pure-strategy Nash equilibria exist (Fudenberg and Tirole 1991, section 1.3.3). For ease of reference, we list the maintained assumptions on the stage game. Assumption 1. Ai is either ﬁnite, or a compact and convex subset of the Euclidean space Rk

2.1.1

for some k. We refer to compact and convex action spaces as continuum action spaces. 2. If Ai is a continuum action space, then u : A → Rn is continuous, and ui is quasiconcave in ai .

Remark Pure strategies given continuum action spaces When action spaces are continua,

2.1.1 to avoid some tedious measurability details, we only consider pure strategies. Because the basic analysis of ﬁnite action games (with pure or mixed actions) and continuum action games (with pure actions) is identical, we use αi to both denote pure or mixed strategies in ﬁnite games, and pure strategies only in continuum action games. ◆ Much of the work in repeated games is concerned with characterizing the payoffs consistent with equilibrium behavior in the repeated game. This characterization in turn often begins by identifying the worst payoff consistent with individual optimization. Player i always has the option of playing a best response to the (mixed) actions chosen by the other players. In the case of pure strategies, the worst outcome in the stage game for player i, consistent with i behaving optimally, is then that the other players choose the proﬁle a−i ∈ A−i ≡ j =i Aj that minimizes the payoff i earns when i plays a best response to a−i . This bound, player i’s (pure action) minmax payoff, is given by p

vi ≡ min max ui (ai , a−i ). a−i ∈A−i ai ∈Ai

p

The compactness of A and continuity of ui ensure vi is well deﬁned. A (pure action) i ) with minmax proﬁle (which may not be unique) for player i is a proﬁle aˆ i = (aˆ ii , aˆ −i p i i i ). the properties that aˆ i is a stage-game best response for i to aˆ −i and vi = ui (aˆ ii , aˆ −i Hence, player i’s minmax action proﬁle gives i his minmax payoff and ensures that no alternative action on i’s part can raise his payoff. In general, the other players will not be choosing best responses in proﬁle aˆ i , and hence aˆ i will not be a Nash equilibrium of the stage game.2 A payoff vector v = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is weakly (pure action) individually rational if p p vi ≥ vi for all i, and is strictly (pure action) individually rational if vi > vi for all i. The set of feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs is given by p

F †p ≡ {v ∈ F † : vi > vi , i = 1, . . . , n}. The set of strictly individually rational payoffs generated by pure action proﬁles is given by p F p ≡ {v ∈ F : vi > vi , i = 1, . . . , n}. 2. An exception is the prisoners’ dilemma, where mutual shirking is both the unique Nash equilibrium of the stage game and the minmax action proﬁle for both players. Many of the special properties of the prisoners’ dilemma arise out of this coincidence.

2.1

■

17

The Canonical Repeated Game

H H T

1, −1 −1, 1

T −1, 1 1, −1

Figure 2.1.1 Matching pennies.

Remark Mixed-action individual rationality In ﬁnite games, lower payoffs can sometimes

2.1.2 be enforced when we allow players to randomize. In particular, allowing the players other than player i to randomize yields the mixed-action minmax payoff, vi ≡

min

max ui (ai , α−i ),

(2.1.1)

α−i ∈j =i (Aj ) ai ∈Ai

p

which can be lower than the pure action minmax payoff, vi .3 A (mixed) action i ) with the properties that α ˆ ii minmax proﬁle for player i is a proﬁle αˆ i = (αˆ ii , αˆ −i i and v = u (α i ˆ i ). is a stage-game best response for i to αˆ −i i i ˆi , α −i In matching pennies (ﬁgure 2.1.1), for example, player 1’s pure minmax payoff is 1, because for any of player 2’s pure strategies, player 1 has a best response giving a payoff of 1. Pure minmax action proﬁles for player 1 are given by (H, H ) and (T , T ). In contrast, player 1’s mixed minmax payoff is 0, implied by player 2’s mixed action of 12 ◦ H + 12 ◦ T .4 p We use the same term, individual rationality, to indicate both vi ≥ vi and vi ≥ vi , with the context indicating the appropriate choice. We denote the set of feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs (relative to the mixed minmax utility, vi ) by F ∗ ≡ {v ∈ F † : vi > vi , i = 1, . . . , n}. ◆ 2.1.2 Public Correlation It is sometimes natural to allow players to use a public correlating device. Such a device captures a variety of public events that players might use to coordinate their actions. Perhaps the best known example is an agreement in the electrical equipment industry in the 1950s to condition bids in procurement auctions on the current phase of the moon.5 3. Allowing player i to mix will not change i’s minmax payoff, because every action in the support of a mixed best reply is also a best reply for player i. 4. We denote the mixture that assigns probability αi (ai ) to action ai by ai αi (ai ) ◦ ai . 5. A small body of literature has studied this case. See Carlton and Perloff (1992, pp. 213–216) for a brief introduction.

18

Chapter 2

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Perfect Monitoring

Definition A public correlating device is a probability space ([0, 1], B, λ), where B is the

2.1.1 Borel σ -algebra and λ is Lebesgue measure. In the stage game with public correlation, a realization ω ∈ [0, 1] of a public random variable is ﬁrst drawn, which is observed by all players, and then each player i chooses an action ai ∈ Ai . A stage-game action for player i in the stage game with public correlation is a (measurable) function ai : [0, 1] → (Ai ). If ai : [0, 1] → Ai , then ai is a pure action. When actions depend nontrivially on the outcome of the public correlating device, we calculate player i’s expected payoff in the obvious manner, by taking expectations over the outcome ω ∈ [0, 1]. Any strategy proﬁle a ≡ (a1 , . . . , an ) induces a joint distribution over i (Ai ). When evaluating the proﬁtability of a deviation from a, because the realization of the correlating device is public, the calculation is ex post, that is, conditional on the realization of ω. If a is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game with public correlation, then every α in the support of a is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game without public correlation; in particular, most correlated equilibria (Aumann 1974) are not equilibria of the stage game with public correlation. It is possible to replace the public correlating device with communication, by using jointly controlled lotteries, introduced by Aumann, Maschler, and Stearns (1968). For example, for two players, suppose they simultaneously announce a number from [0, 1]. Let ω equal their sum, if the sum is less than 1, and equal their sum minus 1 otherwise. It is easy to verify that if one player uniformly randomizes over his selection, then ω is uniformly distributed on [0, 1] for any choice by the other player. Consequently, neither player can inﬂuence the probability distribution. We will not discuss communication in this book, so we use public correlating devices rather than jointly controlled lotteries. Trivially, every payoff in F † can be achieved in pure actions using public correlation. On the other hand, not all payoffs in F † can be achieved in mixed actions without public correlation. For example, consider the game in ﬁgure 2.1.2. The set F is given by F = {(2, 2), (5, 1), (1, 5), (0, 0)}. The set F † is the set of all convex combinations of these four payoff vectors. Some of the payoffs that are in F † but not F can be obtained via independent mixtures, ignoring the correlating device, over the sets {T , B} and {L, R}. For example, F † contains (20/9, 20/9), obtained by independent mixtures that place probability 2/3 on T (or L) and 1/3 on B (or R). A pure strategy that uses the public correlation device to place probability 4/9 on (T , L), 2/9 on each of (T , R) and (B, L), and 1/9 on (B, R) achieves the same payoff. In addition, the public correlating device allows the players to achieve some payoffs in F † that cannot be obtained from independent

L

R

T

2, 2

1, 5

B

5, 1

0, 0

Figure 2.1.2 The game of “chicken.”

2.1

■

19

The Canonical Repeated Game

mixtures. For example, the players can attach probability 1/2 to each of the outcomes (T , R) and (B, L), giving payoffs (3, 3). No independent mixtures can achieve such payoffs, because any such mixtures must attach positive probability to payoffs (2, 2) and (0, 0), ensuring that the sum of the two players’ average payoffs falls below 6. 2.1.3 The Repeated Game In the repeated game,6 the stage game is played in each of the periods t ∈ {0, 1, . . .}. In formulating the notation for this game, we use subscripts to refer to players, typically identifying the element of a proﬁle of actions, strategies, or payoffs corresponding to a particular player. Superscripts will either refer to periods or denote particular proﬁles of interest, with the use being clear from the context. This chapter introduces repeated games of perfect monitoring. At the end of each period, all players observe the action proﬁle chosen. In other words, the actions of every player are perfectly monitored by all other players. If a player is randomizing, only the realized choice is observed. The set of period t ≥ 0 histories is given by H t ≡ At , where we deﬁne the initial history to be the null set, A0 ≡ {∅}, and At to be the t-fold product of A. A history ht ∈ H t is thus a list of t action proﬁles, identifying the actions played in periods 0 through t − 1. The addition of a period t action proﬁle then yields a period t + 1 history ht+1 , an element of the set H t+1 = H t × A. The set of all possible histories is ∞ H ≡ H t. t=0

A pure strategy for player i is a mapping from the set of all possible histories into the set of pure actions,7 σ i : H → Ai . A mixed strategy for player i is a mixture over the set of all pure strategies. Without loss of generality, we typically ﬁnd it more convenient to work with behavior strategies rather than mixed strategies.8 A behavior strategy for player i is a mapping σi : H → (Ai ). Because a pure strategy is trivially a special case of a behavior strategy, we use the same notation σi for both pure and behavior strategies. Unless indicating otherwise, 6. The early literature often used the term supergame for the repeated game. 7. Because there is a natural bijection (one-to-one and onto mapping) between H and each player’s collection of information sets, this is the standard notion of an extensive-form strategy. 8. Two strategies for a player i are realization equivalent if, ﬁxing the strategies of the other players, the two strategies of player i induce the same distribution over outcomes. It is a standard result for ﬁnite extensive form games that every mixed strategy has a realization equivalent behavior strategy (Kuhn’s theorem, see Ritzberger 2002, theorem 3.3, p. 127), and the same is true here. See Mertens, Sorin, and Zamir 1994, theorem 1.6, p. 66 for a proof (though the proof is conceptually identical to the ﬁnite case, the inﬁnite horizon introduces some technical issues).

20

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

we then use the word strategy to denote a behavior strategy, which may happen to be pure. Recall from remark 2.1.1 that we consider only pure strategies for a player whose action space is a continuum (even though for notational simplicity we sometimes use αi to denote the stage game action). For any history ht ∈ H , we deﬁne the continuation game to be the inﬁnitely repeated game that begins in period t, following history ht . For any strategy proﬁle σ , player i’s continuation strategy induced by ht , denoted σi |ht , is given by σi |ht (hτ ) = σi (ht hτ ),

∀hτ ∈ H ,

where ht hτ is the concatenation of the history ht followed by the history hτ . This is the behavior implied by the strategy σi in the continuation game that follows history ht . We write σ |ht for (σ1 |ht , . . . , σn |ht ). Because for each history ht , σi |ht is a strategy in the original repeated game, that is, σi |ht : H → (Ai ), the continuation game associated with each history is a subgame that is strategically identical to the original repeated game. Thus, repeated games have a recursive structure, and this plays an important role in their study. An outcome path (or more simply, outcome) in the inﬁnitely repeated game is an inﬁnite sequence of action proﬁles a ≡ (a 0 , a 1 , a 2 , . . .) ∈ A∞ . Notice that an outcome is distinct from a history. Outcomes are inﬁnite sequences of action proﬁles, whereas histories are ﬁnite-length sequences (whose length identiﬁes the period for which the history is relevant). We denote the ﬁrst t periods of an outcome a by at = (a 0 , a 1 , . . . , a t−1 ). Thus, at is the history in H t corresponding to the outcome a. The pure strategy proﬁle σ ≡ (σ1 , . . . , σn ) induces the outcome a(σ ) ≡ (a 0 (σ ), a 1 (σ ), a 2 (σ ), . . .) recursively as follows. In the ﬁrst period, the action proﬁle a 0 (σ ) ≡ (σ1 (∅), . . . , σn (∅)) is played. In the second period, the history a 0 (σ ) implies that action proﬁle a 1 (σ ) ≡ (σ1 (a 0 (σ )), . . . , σn (a 0 (σ ))) is played. In the third period, the history (a 0 (σ ), a 1 (σ )) is observed, implying the action proﬁle a 2 (σ ) ≡ (σ1 (a 0 (σ ), a 1 (σ )), . . . , σn (a 0 (σ ), a 1 (σ ))) is played, and so on. Analogously, a behavior strategy proﬁle σ induces a path of play. In the ﬁrst period, σ (∅) is the initial mixed action proﬁle α 0 ∈ i (Ai ). In the second period, for each history a 0 in the support of α 0 , σ (a 0 ) is the mixed action proﬁle α 1 (a 0 ), and so on. For a pure strategy proﬁle, the induced path of play and induced outcome are the same. If the proﬁle has some mixing, however, then the proﬁle induces a path of play that speciﬁes, for each period t, a probability distribution over the histories at . The underlying behavior strategy speciﬁes a period t proﬁle of mixed stage-game actions for each such history at , in turn inducing a probability distribution α t+1 (at ) over period t+1 action proﬁles a t+1 , and hence a probability distribution over period t+1 histories at+1 .

2.1

■

21

The Canonical Repeated Game

Suppose σ is a pure strategy proﬁle. In period t, the induced pure action proﬁle a t (σ ) yields a ﬂow payoff of ui (a t (σ )) to player i. An outcome a(σ ) thus implies an inﬁnite stream of stage-game payoffs for each player i, given by (ui (a 0 (σ )), ui (a 1 (σ )), ui (a 2 (σ )), . . .) ∈ R∞ . Each player discounts these payoffs with the discount factor δ ∈ [0, 1), so that the average discounted payoff to player i from the inﬁnite sequence of payoffs (u0i , u1i , u2i , . . .) is given by (1 − δ)

∞

δ t uti .

t=0

The payoff from a pure strategy proﬁle σ is then given by Ui (σ ) = (1 − δ)

∞

δ t ui (a t (σ )).

(2.1.2)

t=0

As usual, the payoff to player i from a proﬁle of mixed or behavior strategies σ is the expected value of the payoffs of the realized outcomes, also denoted Ui (σ ). Observe that we normalize the payoffs in (2.1.2) (and throughout) by the factor (1 − δ). This ensures that U (σ ) = (U1 (σ ), . . . , Un (σ )) ∈ F † for all repeated-game strategy proﬁles σ . We can then readily compare payoffs in the repeated game and the stage game, and compare repeated-game payoffs for different (common) discount factors. Remark Public correlation notation In the repeated game with public correlation, a

2.1.3 t-period history is a list of t action proﬁles and t realizations of the public correlating device, (ω0 , a 0 ; ω1 , a 1 ; . . . ; ωt−1 , a t−1 ). In period t, as a measurable function of the period t history and the period t realization ωt , a behavior strategy speciﬁes αi ∈ (Ai ). As for games without public correlation, every t-period history induces a subgame that is strategically equivalent to the original game. In addition, there are subgames corresponding to the period t realizations ωt . Rather than explicitly describing the correlating device and the players’ actions as a function of its realization, strategy proﬁles are sometimes described by simply specifying a correlated action in each period. Such a strategy proﬁle in the repeated game with public monitoring speciﬁes in each period t, as a function of history ht−1 ∈ H t−1 , a correlated action proﬁle, that is, a joint distribution over the action proﬁles α ∈ i Ai . We also denote the reduction of the compound lottery induced by the public correlating device and subsequent individual randomization by α. The precise meaning will be clear from context. ◆ Remark Common discount factors With the exception of the discussion of reputations in

2.1.4 chapter 16, we assume that long-lived players share a common discount factor δ. This assumption is substantive. Consider the battle of the sexes in ﬁgure 2.1.3. The set of feasible payoffs F † is the convex hull of the set {(3, 1), (0, 0), (1, 3)}. For any common discount factor δ ∈ [0, 1), the set of feasible repeated-game payoffs is also the convex hull of {(3, 1), (0, 0), (1, 3)}. Suppose, however, players 1 and 2 have discount factors δ1 and δ2 with δ1 > δ2 , so that player 1 is more patient than player 2. Then any repeated-game strategy that calls for (B, L) to be played

22

Chapter 2

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Perfect Monitoring

L

R

T

0, 0

3, 1

B

1, 3

0, 0

Figure 2.1.3 A battle-of-the-sexes game.

in periods 0, . . . , T − 1 and (T , R) to be played in subsequent periods yields a repeated game vector outside the convex hull of {(3, 1), (0, 0), (1, 3)}, being in particular above the line segment joining payoffs (3, 1) and (1, 3). This outcome averages over the payoffs (3, 1) and (1, 3), but places relatively high player 2 payoffs in early periods and relatively high player 1 payoffs in later periods, giving repeated-game payoffs to the two players of player 1 : and player 2 :

(1 − δ1T ) + 3δ1T 3(1 − δ2T ) + δ2T .

Because δ1 > δ2 , each player’s convex combination is pushed in the direction of the outcome that is relatively lucrative for that player. This arrangement capitalizes on the differences in the two players’ discount factors, with the impatient player 2 essentially borrowing payoffs from the more patient player 1 in early periods to be repaid in later periods, to expand the set of feasible repeated-game payoffs beyond those of the stage game. Lehrer and Pauzner (1999) examine repeated games with differing discount factors. ◆ 2.1.4 Subgame-Perfect Equilibrium of the Repeated Game As usual, a Nash equilibrium is a strategy proﬁle in which each player is best responding to the strategies of the other players: Definition The strategy proﬁle σ is a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game if for all players

2.1.2 i and strategies σi ,

Ui (σ ) ≥ Ui (σi , σ−i ).

We have the following formalization of the discussion in section 2.1.1 and remark 2.1.2 on minmax utilities: p

Lemma If σ is a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium, then for all i, Ui (σ ) ≥ vi . If σ is a

2.1.1 (possibly mixed) Nash equilibrium, then for all i, Ui (σ ) ≥ vi .

Proof Consider a Nash equilibrium. Player i can always play the strategy that speciﬁes

a best reply to σ−i (ht ) after every history ht . In each period, i’s payoff is thus at p least vi if σ−i is pure (vi if σ−i is mixed), and so i’s payoff in the equilibrium p must be at least vi (vi , respectively). ■

2.1

■

The Canonical Repeated Game

23

We frequently make implicit use of the observation that a strategy of the repeated game with public correlation is a Nash equilibrium if and only if for almost all realizations of the public correlating device, the induced strategy proﬁle is a Nash equilibrium. In games with a nontrivial dynamic structure, Nash equilibrium is too permissive— there are Nash equilibrium outcomes that violate basic notions of optimality by specifying irrational behavior at out-of-equilibrium information sets. Similar considerations arise from the dynamic structure of a repeated game, even if actions are chosen simultaneously in the stage game. Consider a Nash equilibrium of an inﬁnitely repeated game with perfect monitoring. Associated with each history that cannot occur in equilibrium is a subgame. The notion of a Nash equilibrium imposes no optimality conditions in these subgames, opening the door to violations of sequential rationality. Subgame perfection strengthens Nash equilibrium by imposing the sequential rationality requirement that behavior be optimal in all circumstances, both those that arise in equilibrium (as required by Nash equilibrium) and those that arise out of equilibrium. In ﬁnite horizon games of perfect information, such sequential rationality is conveniently captured by requiring backward induction. We cannot appeal to backward induction in an inﬁnitely repeated game, which has no last period. We instead appeal to the underlying deﬁnition of sequential rationality as requiring equilibrium behavior in every subgame, where we exploit the strategic equivalence of the repeated game and the continuation game induced by history ht . Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game if for

2.1.3 all histories ht ∈ H , σ |ht is a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. The existence of subgame-perfect equilibria in a repeated game is immediate: Any proﬁle of strategies that induces the same Nash equilibrium of the stage game after every history of the repeated game is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the latter. For example, strategies that specify shirking after every history are a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated prisoners’ dilemma, as are strategies that specify low effort and the low-priced choice in every period (and after every history) of the productchoice game. If the stage game has more than one Nash equilibrium, strategies that assign any stage-game Nash equilibrium to each period t, independently of the history leading to period t, constitute a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Playing one’s part of a Nash equilibrium is always a best response in the stage game, and hence, as long as future play is independent of current actions, doing so is a best response in each period of a repeated game, regardless of the history of play. Although the notion of subgame perfection is intuitively appealing, it raises some potentially formidable technical difﬁculties. In principle, checking for subgame perfection involves checking whether an inﬁnite number of strategy proﬁles are Nash equilibria—the set H of histories is countably inﬁnite even if the stage-game action spaces are ﬁnite. Moreover, checking whether a proﬁle σ is a Nash equilibrium involves checking that player i’s strategy σi is no worse than an inﬁnite number of potential deviations (because player i could deviate in any period, or indeed in any combination of periods). The following sections show that we can simplify this task immensely, ﬁrst by limiting the number of alternative strategies that must be examined, then by organizing the subgames that must be checked for Nash equilibria into equivalence

24

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

classes, and ﬁnally by identifying a simple constructive method for characterizing equilibrium payoffs.

2.2

The One-Shot Deviation Principle

This section describes a critical insight from dynamic programming that allows us to restrict attention to a simple class of deviations when checking for subgame perfection. A one-shot deviation for player i from strategy σi is a strategy σˆ i = σi with the property that there exists a unique history h˜ t ∈ H such that for all hτ = h˜ t , σi (hτ ) = σˆ i (hτ ). Under public correlation, the history h˜ t includes the period t realization of the public correlating device. The strategy σˆ i plays identically to strategy σi in every period other than t and plays identically in period t if the latter is reached with some history other than h˜ t . A one-shot deviation thus agrees with the original strategy everywhere except at one history where the one-shot deviation occurs. However, a one-shot deviation can have a substantial effect on the resulting outcome. Example Consider the grim trigger strategy proﬁle in the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’

2.2.1 dilemma of section 1.2. The equilibrium outcome when two players each choose grim trigger is that both players exert effort in every period. Now consider the one-shot deviation σˆ 1 under which 1 plays as in grim trigger, with the exception of shirking in period 4 if there has been no previous shirking, that is, with the exception of shirking after the history (EE, EE, EE, EE). The deviating strategy shirks in every period after period 4, as does grim trigger, and hence we have an outcome that differs from the mutual play of grim trigger in inﬁnitely many periods. However, once the deviation has occurred, it is a prescription of grim trigger that one shirk thereafter. The only deviation from the original strategy hence occurs after the history (EE, EE, EE, EE). ●

Definition Fix a proﬁle of opponents’ strategies σ−i . A one-shot deviation σˆ i from strategy

2.2.1 σi is proﬁtable if, at the history h˜ t for which σˆ i (h˜ t ) = σi (h˜ t ), Ui (σˆ i |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t ) > Ui (σ |h˜ t ).

Notice that proﬁtability of σˆ i is deﬁned conditional on the history h˜ t being reached, though h˜ t may not be reached in equilibrium. Hence, a Nash equilibrium can have proﬁtable one-shot deviations. Example Consider again the prisoners’ dilemma. Suppose that strategies σ1 and σ2 both

2.2.2 specify effort in the ﬁrst period and effort as long as there has been no previous shirking, with any shirking prompting players to alternate between 10 periods of shirking and 1 of effort, regardless of any subsequent actions. For sufﬁciently

2.2

■

The One-Shot Deviation Principle

25

large discount factors, these strategies constitute a Nash equilibrium, inducing an outcome of mutual effort in every period. However, there are proﬁtable one-shot deviations. In particular, consider a history ht featuring mutual effort in every period except t − 11, at which point one player shirked, and periods t − 10, . . . , t − 1, in which both players shirked. The equilibrium strategy calls for both players to exert effort in period t, and then continue alternating 10 periods of shirking with a period of effort. A proﬁtable one-shot deviation for player 1 is to shirk after history ht , otherwise adhering to the equilibrium strategy. There are other proﬁtable one-shot deviations, as well as proﬁtable deviations that alter play after more than just a single history. However, all of these deviations increase proﬁts only after histories that do not occur along the equilibrium path, and hence none of them increases equilibrium proﬁts or vitiates the fact that the proposed strategies are a Nash equilibrium. ●

Proposition The one-shot deviation principle A strategy proﬁle σ is subgame perfect if and

2.2.1 only if there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations. To conﬁrm that a strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, we thus need only consider alternative strategies that deviate from the action proposed by σ once and then return to the prescriptions of the equilibrium strategy. As our prisoners’ dilemma example illustrates, this does not imply that the path of generated actions will differ from the equilibrium strategies in only one period. The deviation prompts a different history than does the equilibrium, and the equilibrium strategies may respond to this history by making different subsequent prescriptions. The importance of the one-shot deviation principle lies in the implied reduction in the space of deviations that need to be considered. In particular, we do not have to worry about alternative strategies that might deviate from the equilibrium strategy in period t, and then again in period t > t, and again in period t > t , and so on. For example, we need not consider a strategy that deviates from grim trigger in the prisoners’ dilemma by shirking in period 0, and then deviates from the equilibrium path (now featuring mutual shirking) in period 3, and perhaps again in period 6, and so on. Although this is obvious when examining such simple candidate equilibria in the prisoners’ dilemma, it is less clear in general. Proof We give the proof only for pure-strategy equilibria in the game without public

correlation. The extensions to mixed strategies and public correlation, though conceptually identical, are notationally cumbersome. If a proﬁle is subgame perfect, then clearly there can be no proﬁtable one-shot deviations. Conversely, we suppose that a proﬁle σ is not subgame perfect and show there must then be a proﬁtable one-shot deviation. Because the proﬁle is not subgame perfect, there exists a history h˜ t , player i, and a strategy σ˜ i , such that Ui (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t ) < Ui (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t ).

26

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

Let ε = Ui (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t ) − Ui (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t ). Let m = mini,a ui (a) and M = maxi,a ui (a). Let T be large enough that δ T (M − m) < ε/2. Then,

(1 − δ)

T −1

δ ui (a (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t )) + (1 − δ) τ

τ

∞

δ τ ui (a τ (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t ))

τ =T

τ =0

= (1 − δ)

T −1

δ ui (a (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t )) + (1 − δ) τ

τ

∞

δ τ ui (a τ (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t )) − ε,

τ =T

τ =0

so

(1 − δ)

T −1

δ τ ui (a τ (σi |h˜ t , σ−i |h˜ t )) < (1 − δ)

τ =0

T −1 τ =0

ε δ τ ui (a τ (σ˜ i , σ−i |h˜ t )) − , 2 (2.2.1)

because δ T (M − m) < ε/2 ensures that regardless of how the deviation in question affects play in period t + T and beyond, these variations in play have an effect on player i’s period t continuation payoff of strictly less than ε/2. This in turn implies that the strategy σˆ i , deﬁned by

σ˜ i (hτ ),

σˆ i (h ) = τ

σi |h˜ t σ˜ i (hτ ), = σi (h˜ t hτ ),

(hτ ),

if τ < T , if τ ≥ T , if τ < T , if τ ≥ T ,

is a proﬁtable deviation. In particular, strategy σˆ i agrees with σ˜ i over the ﬁrst T periods, and hence captures the payoff gains of ε/2 promised by (2.2.1). The strategy σˆ only differs from σi |h˜ t in the ﬁrst T periods. We have thus shown that if an equilibrium is not subgame perfect, there must be a proﬁtable T period deviation. The proof is now completed by arguing recursively on the value of T . Let hˆ T −1 ≡ (aˆ 0 , . . . , aˆ T −2 ) denote the T − 1 period history induced by (σˆ i , σ−i |h˜ t ). There are two possibilities: 1. Suppose Ui (σi |h˜ t hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ) < Ui (σˆ i |hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ). In this case, we have a proﬁtable one-shot deviation, after the history h˜ t hˆ T −1 (note that σˆ i |hˆ T −1 agrees with σi in period T and every period after T ). 2. Alternatively, suppose Ui (σi |h˜ t hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ) ≥ Ui (σˆ i |hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ). In this case, we deﬁne a new strategy, σ¯ i as follows: σ¯ i (h ) = τ

σˆ i (hτ ),

if τ < T − 1,

σi |h˜ t

if τ ≥ T − 1.

(hτ ),

2.2

■

The One-Shot Deviation Principle

27

Now, Ui (σˆ i |hˆ T −2 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −2 ) = (1 − δ)ui (aˆ T −1 ) + δUi (σˆ i |hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ) ≤ (1 − δ)ui (aˆ T −1 ) + δUi (σi |h˜ t hˆ T −1 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −1 ) = Ui (σ¯ i |hˆ T −2 , σ−i |h˜ t hˆ T −2 ), which implies Ui (σˆ i , σ−i |h˜ t ) ≤ Ui (σ¯ i , σ−i |h˜ t ), and so σ¯ i is a proﬁtable deviation at h˜ t that only differs from σi |h˜ t in the ﬁrst T − 1 periods. Proceeding in this way, we must ﬁnd a proﬁtable one-shot deviation. ■

A key step in the proof is the observation that because payoffs are discounted, any strategy that offers a higher payoff than an equilibrium strategy must do so within a ﬁnite number of periods. A backward induction argument then allows us to show that if there is a proﬁtable deviation, there is a proﬁtable one-shot deviation. Fudenberg and Tirole (1991, section 4.2) show the one-shot deviation principle holds for a more general class of games with perfect monitoring, those with payoffs that are continuous at inﬁnity (a condition that essentially requires that actions in the far future have a negligible impact on current payoffs). In addition, the principle holds for sequential equilibria in any ﬁnite extensive form game (Osborne and Rubinstein 1994, exercise 227.1), as well as for perfect public equilibria of repeated games with public monitoring (proposition 7.1.1) and sequential equilibria of private-monitoring games with no observable deviations (proposition 12.2.2). Suppose we have a Nash equilibrium σ that is not subgame perfect. Then, from proposition 2.2.1, there must be a proﬁtable one-shot deviation from the strategy proﬁle σ . However, because σ is a Nash equilibrium, no deviation can increase either player’s equilibrium payoff. The proﬁtable one-shot deviation must then occur after a history that is not reached in the course of the Nash equilibrium. Example 2.2.2 provided an illustration. In light of this last observation, do we have a corresponding one-shot deviation principle for Nash equilibria? Is a strategy proﬁle σ a Nash equilibrium if and only if there are no one-shot deviations whose differences from σ occur after histories that arise along the equilibrium path? The answer is no. It is immediate from the deﬁnition of Nash equilibrium that there can be no proﬁtable one-shot deviations along the equilibrium path. However, their absence does not sufﬁce for Nash equilibrium, as we now show. Example Consider the prisoners’ dilemma, but with payoffs given in ﬁgure 2.2.1.9 Consider

2.2.3 the strategy proﬁle in which both players play tit-for-tat, exerting effort in the ﬁrst period and thereafter mimicking in each period the action chosen by the opponent 9. With the payoffs of ﬁgure 2.2.1, the incentives to shirk are independent of the action of the partner, and so the set of discount factors for which tit-for-tat is a Nash equilibrium coincides with the set for which there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations on histories that appear along the equilibrium path.

28

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

E

S −1, 4

E

3, 3

S

4, −1

1, 1

Figure 2.2.1 The prisoners’ dilemma with incentives

to shirk that depend on the opponent’s action.

in the previous period. The induced outcome is mutual effort in every period, yielding an equilibrium payoff of 3. To ensure that there are no proﬁtable oneshot deviations whose differences appear after equilibrium histories, we need only consider a strategy for player 1 that shirks in the ﬁrst period and otherwise plays as does tit-for-tat. Such a strategy induces a cyclic outcome of the form SE, ES, SE, ES, . . . , for a payoff of 4−δ

. (1 − δ) 4(1 + δ 2 + δ 4 + · · · ) − 1(δ + δ 3 + δ 5 + · · · ) = 1+δ There are then no proﬁtable one-shot deviations whose differences from the equilibrium strategy appear after equilibrium histories if and only if δ ≥ 14 . However, when δ = 1/4, the most attractive deviation from tit-for-tat in this game is perpetual shirking, which is not a one-shot deviation. For this deviation to be unproﬁtable, it must be that 3 ≥ (1 − δ)4 + δ = 4 − 3δ, and hence δ ≥ 13 . For δ ∈ [1/4, 1/3) tit-for-tat is thus not a Nash equilibrium, despite the absence of proﬁtable one-shot deviations that differ from tit-for-tat only after equilibrium histories. ●

What goes wrong if we mimic the proof of proposition 2.2.1 in an effort to show that if there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations from equilibrium histories, then we have a Nash equilibrium? Proceeding again with the contrapositive, we would begin with a strategy proﬁle that is not a Nash equilibrium. A proﬁtable deviation may involve a deviation on the equilibrium path, as well as subsequent deviations off-the-equilibrium path. Beginning with a proﬁtable deviation, and following the argument of the proof of proposition 2.2.1, we ﬁnd a proﬁtable one-shot deviation. The difﬁculty is that this one-shot deviation may occur off the equilibrium path. Although this is immaterial for subgame perfection, this difﬁculty scuttles the relationship between Nash equilibrium and proﬁtable one-shot deviations along the equilibrium path.

2.3

2.3

■

Automaton Representations

29

Automaton Representations of Strategy Proﬁles

The one-shot deviation principle simpliﬁes the set of alternative strategies we must check when evaluating subgame perfection. However, there still remains a potentially daunting number of histories to be evaluated. This evaluation can often be simpliﬁed by grouping histories into equivalence classes, where each member of an equivalence class induces an identical continuation strategy. We achieve this grouping by representing repeated-game strategies as automata, where the states of the automata represent equivalence classes of histories. An automaton (or machine) (W , w0 , f, τ ) consists of a set of states W , an initial state w0 ∈ W , an output (or decision) function f : W → i (Ai ) associating mixed action proﬁles with states, and a transition function, τ : W × A → W . The transition function identiﬁes the next state of the automaton, given its current state and the realized stage-game pure action proﬁle. If the function f speciﬁes a pure output at state w, we write f (w) for the resulting action proﬁle. If a mixture is speciﬁed by f at w, f w (a) denotes the probability attached to proﬁle a, so that a∈A f w (a) = 1 (recall that we only consider mixtures over ﬁnite action spaces, see remark 2.1.1). We emphasize that even if two automata only differ in their initial state, they nonetheless are different automata. Any automaton (W , w0 , f, τ ) with f specifying a pure action at every state induces an outcome {a 0 , a 1 , . . .} as follows: a 0 = σ (∅) = f (w 0 ), a 1 = σ (a 0 ) = f (τ (w 0 , a 0 )), a 2 = σ (a 0 , a 1 ) = f (τ (τ (w 0 , a 0 ), a 1 )), .. . We extend this to identify the strategy induced by an automaton. First, extend the transition function from the domain W × A to the domain W × H \{∅} by recursively deﬁning τ (w, ht ) = τ (τ (w, h t−1 ), a t−1 ). With this deﬁnition, we have the strategy σ described by σ (∅) = f (w 0 ) and σ (ht ) = f (τ (w0 , ht )). Similarly, an automaton for which f sometimes speciﬁes mixed actions induces a path of play and a strategy. Conversely, it is straightforward that any strategy proﬁle can be represented by an automaton. Take the set of histories H as the set of states, the null history ∅ as the initial state, f (ht ) = σ (ht ), and τ (ht , a) = ht+1 , where ht+1 ≡ (ht , a) is the concatenation of the history ht with the action proﬁle a. This representation leaves us in the position of working with the full set of histories H . However, strategy proﬁles can often be represented by automata with ﬁnite sets W . The set W is then a partition on H , grouping together those histories that prompt identical continuation strategies.

30

Chapter 2

■

Perfect Monitoring

We say that a state w ∈ W is accessible from another state w ∈ W if there exists a sequence of action proﬁles such that beginning at w, the automaton eventually reaches w . More formally, there exists ht such that w = τ (w, ht ). Accessibility is not symmetric. Consequently, in an automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ), even if every state in W is accessible from the initial state w0 , this may not be true if some other state replaced w 0 as the initial state (see example 2.3.1). Remark Individual automata For most of parts I and II, it is sufﬁcient to use a single

2.3.1 automaton to represent strategy proﬁles. We can also represent a single strategy σi by an automaton (Wi , wi0 , fi , τi ). However, because every mixed strategy has a realization equivalent behavior strategy, we can always choose the automaton to have deterministic transitions, and so for any strategy proﬁle represented by a collection of individual automata (one for each player), we can deﬁne a single “grand” automaton to represent the proﬁle in the obvious way. The same is true for public strategies in public-monitoring games (the topic of much of part II), but is not true more generally (we will see examples in sections 5.1.2, 10.4.2, and 14.1.1). Our use of automata (following Osborne and Rubinstein 1994) is also to be distinguished from a well-developed body of work, beginning with such publications as Neyman (1985), Rubinstein (1986), Abreu and Rubinstein (1988), and Kalai and Stanford (1988), that uses automata to both represent and impose restrictions on the complexity of strategies in repeated games. The technique in such studies is to represent each player’s strategy as an automaton, replacing the repeated game with an automaton-choice game in which players choose the automata that will then implement their strategies. In particular, players in that work have preferences over the nature of the automaton, typically preferring automata with fewer states. In this book, players only have preferences over payoff streams and automata solely represent behavior. ◆ Remark Continuation profiles When a strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automa-

2.3.2 ton (W , w 0 , f, τ ), the continuation strategy proﬁle after the history ht , σ |ht , is described by the automaton obtained by using τ (w0 , ht ) as the initial state, that is, (W , τ (w 0 , ht ), f, τ ). If every state in W is accessible from w 0 , then the collection of all continuation strategy proﬁles is described by the collection of automata {(W , w, f, τ ) : w ∈ W }. ◆ Example We illustrate these ideas by presenting the automaton representation of a pair of

2.3.1 players using grim trigger in the prisoners’ dilemma (see ﬁgure 2.3.1). The set of states is W = {wEE , wSS }, with output function f (wEE ) = EE and f (wSS ) = SS. We thus have one state in which both players exert effort and one in which they both shirk. The initial state is wEE . The transition function is given by wEE , if w = wEE and a = EE, τ (w, a) = (2.3.1) wSS , otherwise. Grim trigger is described by the automaton (W , wEE , f, τ ), whereas the continuation strategy proﬁle after any history in which EE is not played in at least one

2.3

■

31

Automaton Representations

EE

EE , ES , SE , SS ES , SE , SS

wEE

wSS

w0 Figure 2.3.1 Automaton representation of grim trigger. Circles are states and arrows transitions, labeled by the proﬁles leading to the transitions. The subscript on a state indicates the action proﬁle to be taken at that state.

period is described by (W , wSS , f, τ ). Note that although every state in W is accessible from wEE , the state wEE is not accessible from wSS . ●

The advantage of the automaton representation is that we need only verify the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w, f, τ ) is a Nash equilibrium, for each w ∈ W , to conﬁrm that the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w0 , f, τ ) is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. The following result is immediate from remark 2.3.2 (and its proof omitted). Proposition The strategy proﬁle with representing automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ) is a subgame-

2.3.1 perfect equilibrium if and only if, for all w ∈ W accessible from w0 , the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w, f, τ ) is a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. Each state of the automaton identiﬁes an equivalence class of histories after which the strategies prescribe identical continuation play. The requirement that the strategy proﬁle induced by each state of the automaton (i.e., by taking that state to be the initial state) corresponds to a Nash equilibrium is then equivalent to the requirement that we have Nash equilibrium continuation play after every history. This result simpliﬁes matters by transferring our concern from the set of histories H to the set of states of the automaton representation of a strategy. If W is simply the set of all histories H , little has been gained. However, it is often the case that W is considerably smaller than the set of histories, with many histories associated with each state of (W , w, f, τ ), as example 2.3.1 shows is the case with grim trigger. Verifying that each state induces a Nash equilibrium is then much simpler than checking every history. Remark Public correlation The automaton representation of a pure strategy proﬁle in

2.3.3 the game with public correlation, (W , µ0 , f, τ ) changes the description only in that the initial state is now randomly determined by a distribution µ0 ∈ (W ) and the transition function maps into probability distributions over states, that is, τ : W × A → (W ); τw (w, a) is the probability that next period’s state is w when the current state is w and current pure action proﬁle is a. A state w ∈ W is accessible from µ ∈ (W ) if there exists a sequence of action proﬁles such that beginning at some state in the support of µ, the automaton eventually reaches w with positive probability. Proposition 2.3.1 holds as stated, with µ0 replacing w 0 , under public correlation. ◆

32

Chapter 2

2.4

■

Perfect Monitoring

Credible Continuation Promises

This section uses the one-shot deviation principle to transform the task of checking that each state induces a Nash equilibrium in the repeated game to one of checking that each state induces a Nash equilibrium in an associated simultaneous move, or “one-shot” game. Fix an automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ) where all w ∈ W are accessible from w 0 , and let Vi (w) be player i’s average discounted value from play that begins in state w. That is, if play in the game follows the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w, f, τ ), then Vi (w) is player i’s average discounted payoff from the resulting outcome path. Although Vi can be calculated directly from the inﬁnite sum, it is often easier to work with a recursive formulation, noting that at any state w, Vi (w) is the average of current payoffs ui (with weight (1 − δ)) and continuation payoffs (with weight δ). If the output function f is pure at w, then current payoffs are simply ui (f (w)), whereas the continuation payoffs are Vi (τ (w, f (w))), because the current action proﬁle f (w) causes a transition from w to τ (w, f (w)). This extends to mixed-action proﬁles when A is ﬁnite. Payoffs are the expected value of ﬂow payoffs under f , given by

ui (a)f w (a),

a

and continuation payoffs are the expected value of the different states that are reached from the current realized action proﬁle,

Vi (τ (w, a))f w (a).

a

Consequently, Vi satisﬁes the system of linear equations, Vi (w) = (1 − δ)

a

ui (a)f w (a) + δ

Vi (τ (w, a))f w (a),

∀w ∈ W ,

(2.4.1)

a

which has a unique solution in the space of bounded functions on W .10 If an automaton with deterministic outputs is currently in state w, whether on the equilibrium path or as the result of a deviation, and if player i expects the other players to subsequently follow the strategy proﬁle described by the automaton, then player i expects to receive a ﬂow payoff of ui (ai , f−i (w)) from playing ai . The resulting action proﬁle (ai , f−i (w)) then implies a transition to a new state w = τ (w, (ai , f−i (w))). If all players follow the strategy proﬁle in subsequent periods (a circumstance the one-shot deviation principle makes of interest), then player i expects a continuation value of Vi (w ). Accordingly, we interpret Vi (w ) as a continuation promise and view the proﬁle as making such promises. Intuitively, a subgame-perfect equilibrium strategy proﬁle is one whose continuation promises are credible. Given the continuation promise Vi (w ) for player i at 10. The mapping described by the right side of (2.4.1) is a contraction on the space of bounded functions on W , and so has a unique ﬁxed point.

2.4

■

33

Credible Continuation Promises

each state w , player i is willing to choose an action ai in the support of fi (w) if, for all ai ∈ Ai , (1 − δ)

ui (ai , a−i )f w (a−i ) + δ

a−i

≥ (1 − δ)

Vi (τ (w, (ai , a−i )))f w (a−i )

a−i

ui (ai , a−i )f (a−i ) + δ w

a−i

Vi (τ (w, (ai , a−i )))f w (a−i ),

a−i

or, equivalently, if for all ai ∈ Ai , ui (ai , a−i )f w (a−i ) + δ Vi (τ (w, (ai , a−i )))f w (a−i ). Vi (w) ≥ (1 − δ) a−i

a−i

We say that continuation promises are credible if the corresponding inequality holds for each player and state. Let V (w) = (V1 (w), . . . , Vn (w)). Proposition Suppose the strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ). The

2.4.1 strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from w0 , f (w) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal form game described by the payoff function g w : A → Rn , where g w (a) = (1 − δ)u(a) + δV (τ (w, a)).

(2.4.2)

Proof We give the argument for automata with deterministic output functions. The

extension to mixtures is immediate but notationally cumbersome. Let σ be the strategy proﬁle induced by (W , w 0 , f, τ ). We ﬁrst show that if f (w) is a Nash equilibrium in the normal-form game g w , for every w ∈ W , then there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations from σ . By proposition 2.2.1, this sufﬁces to show that σ is subgame perfect. To do this, let σˆ i be a one-shot deviation, hˆ t be the history for which σi (hˆ t ) = σˆ i (hˆ t ), and wˆ be the state reached by the history hˆ t , that is, wˆ = τ (w0 , hˆ t ). Finally, let ai = σˆ i (hˆ t ). Then, ˆ Ui (σi |hˆ t , σ−i |hˆ t ) = Vi (w), and, because σˆ i is a one-shot deviation, ˆ (ai , σ−i |hˆ t (∅)) Ui (σˆ i |hˆ t , σ−i |hˆ t ) = (1 − δ)ui ai , σ−i |hˆ t (∅) + δVi τ w, ˆ + δVi (τ (w, ˆ (ai , f−i (w)))). ˆ = (1 − δ)ui (ai , f−i (w)) Thus, if for all wˆ ∈ W , f (w) ˆ is a Nash equilibrium of the game g wˆ , then no one-shot deviation is proﬁtable. Conversely, suppose there is some wˆ ∈ W accessible from w 0 and ai such that (1 − δ)ui (ai , f−i (w)) ˆ + δVi (τ (w, ˆ (ai , f−i (w)))) ˆ > Vi (w), ˆ

(2.4.3)

so f (w) ˆ is not a Nash equilibrium of the game induced by g wˆ . Again, by proposition 2.2.1, it sufﬁces to show that there is a proﬁtable one-shot deviation from σ .

34

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E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 2.4.1 The prisoners’ dilemma from ﬁgure 1.2.1.

Because wˆ is accessible from w 0 , there is a history hˆ t such that wˆ = τ (w 0 , hˆ t ). Let σˆ i be the strategy deﬁned by ai , if hτ = hˆ t , τ σˆ i (h ) = σi (hτ ), if hτ = hˆ t . Then, σˆ i is a one-shot deviation from σi , and it is proﬁtable (from (2.4.3)). ■

Public correlation does not introduce any complications, and so an essentially identical argument yields the following proposition (the notation is explained in remark 2.3.3). Proposition In the game with public correlation, the strategy proﬁle (W , µ0 , f, τ ) is a

2.4.2 subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from µ0 , f (w) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal form game described by the payoff function g w : A → Rn , where V (w )τw (w, a). g w (a) = (1 − δ)u(a) + δ w ∈W

Example Consider the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma with the stage game of

2.4.1 ﬁgure 1.2.1, reproduced in ﬁgure 2.4.1. We argued in section 1.2 that grim trigger is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if δ ≥ 1/3, and in example 2.3.1 that the proﬁle has an automaton representation (given in ﬁgure 2.3.1). It is straightforward to calculate V (wEE ) = (2, 2) and V (wSS ) = (0, 0). We can thus view the strategy proﬁle as “promising” 2 if EE is played, and “promising” (or “threatening”) 0 if not. We now illustrate proposition 2.4.1. There are two one-shot games to be analyzed, one for each state. The game for w = wEE has payoffs (1 − δ)ui (a) + δVi (τ (wEE , a)). The associated payoff matrix is given in ﬁgure 2.4.2. If δ < 1/3, SS is the only Nash equilibrium of the one-shot game, and so grim trigger cannot be a subgame-perfect equilibrium. On the other hand, if δ ≥ 1/3, both EE and SS are Nash equilibria. Hence, f (wEE ) = EE is a Nash equilibrium, as required by proposition 2.4.1.11 11. There is no requirement that f (w) be the only Nash equilibrium of the one-shot game.

2.4

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35

Credible Continuation Promises

E

S

E

2, 2

−(1 − δ), 3(1 − δ)

S

3(1 − δ), −(1 − δ)

0, 0

Figure 2.4.2 The payoff matrix for w = wEE .

E

S

E

2(1 − δ), 2(1 − δ)

−(1 − δ), 3(1 − δ)

S

3(1 − δ), −(1 − δ)

0, 0

Figure 2.4.3 The payoff matrix for w = wSS .

The payoff matrix of the one-shot game associated with wSS is displayed in ﬁgure 2.4.3. For any value δ ∈ [0, 1), the only Nash equilibrium is SS, which is the action proﬁle speciﬁed by f in the state wSS . Putting these results together with proposition 2.4.1, grim trigger is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if δ ≥ 1/3. ●

Just as there is no corresponding version of the one-shot deviation principle for Nash equilibrium, there is no result corresponding to proposition 2.4.1 for Nash equilibrium. We illustrate this in the ﬁnal paragraph of example 2.4.2. Example We now consider tit-for-tat in the prisoners’dilemma of ﬁgure 2.2.1. An automaton

2.4.2 representation of tit-for-tat is W = {wEE , wSS , wES , wSE }, w 0 = wEE , f (wa1 a2 ) = a1 a2 , and τ (wa , a1 a2 ) = wa2 a1 . The induced outcome is that both players exert effort in every period, and the only state reached is wEE . The linear equations used to deﬁne the payoff function g w for the associated one-shot games (see (2.4.2)), are V1 (wEE ) = 3, V1 (wSS ) = 1, V1 (wES ) = −(1 − δ) + δV1 (wSE ), and V1 (wSE ) = 4(1 − δ) + δV1 (wES ).

36

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Solving the last two equations gives V1 (wES ) =

4δ − 1 1+δ

V1 (wSE ) =

4−δ . 1+δ

and

Now, EE is a Nash equilibrium of the game for w = wEE if 3 ≥ (1 − δ)4 + δV1 (wES ) = (1 − δ)4 +

δ(4δ − 1) , 1+δ

which is equivalent to δ ≥ 14 . Turning to the states wES and wSE , E is a best response if 4δ − 1 ≥ (1 − δ)1 + δ1 = 1, 1+δ giving δ ≥ 23 . Finally, S is a best response if 4−δ ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ3 = 3, 1+δ or δ ≤ 14 . Given the obvious inability to ﬁnd a discount factor satisfying these various restrictions, we conclude that tit-for-tat is not subgame perfect. The failure of a one-shot deviation principle for Nash equilibrium that we discussed earlier is also reﬂected here. For δ ≥ 1/4, the action proﬁle EE is a Nash equilibrium of the game for state wEE , the only state reached along the equilibrium path. This does not imply that tit-for-tat is a Nash equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated game. Tit-for-tat is a Nash equilibrium only if a deviation to always defecting is unproﬁtable, or 3 ≥ (1 − δ)4 + δ = 4 − 3δ ⇒ δ ≥ 13 , a more severe constraint than δ ≥ 1/4. We thus do not have a counterpart of proposition 2.4.1 for Nash equilibria (that would characterize Nash equilibria as corresponding to automata that generate Nash equilibria of the repeated game in every state reached in equilibrium). ●

2.5

2.5

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37

Generating Equilibria

Generating Equilibria

Many arguments in repeated games are based on constructive proofs. We are often interested in equilibria with certain properties, such as equilibria featuring the highest or lowest payoffs for some players, and the argument proceeds by exhibiting an equilibrium with the desired properties. When reasoning in this way, we are faced with the prospect of searching through a prohibitively immense set of possible equilibria. In the next two sections, we describe two complementary approaches for ﬁnding equilibria. This section, based on Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990), introduces and illustrates the ideas of a self-generating set of equilibrium payoffs. Section 2.6, based on Abreu (1986, 1988), uses these results to introduce “simple” strategies and show that any subgame-perfect equilibrium can be obtained via such strategies. For expositional clarity, we restrict attention to pure strategies in the next two sections. The notions of enforceability and pure-action decomposability, introduced in section 2.5.1, extend in an obvious way to mixed actions (and we do this in chapter 7), as do the notions of penal codes and optimal penal codes of section 2.6. 2.5.1 Constructing Equilibria: Self-Generation We begin with a simple observation that has important implications. Denote the set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs by E p ⊂ Rn . For each v ∈ E p , σ v denotes a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium yielding the payoff v. Suppose that for some action proﬁle a ∗ ∈ A there is a function, γ : A → E p , with the property that, for all players i, and all ai ∈ Ai , ∗ ∗ ) + δγi (ai , a−i ). (1 − δ)ui (a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i

Consider the strategy proﬁle that speciﬁes the action proﬁle a ∗ in the initial period, and after any action proﬁle a ∈ A plays according to σ γ (a) . Proposition 2.4.1 implies that this proﬁle is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, with a value of (1 − δ)ui (a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ) ∈ E p . Suppose now that instead of taking E p as the range for γ , we take instead some arbitrary subset W of the set of feasible payoffs, F † . Definition A pure action proﬁle a ∗ is enforceable on W if there exists some speciﬁcation of

2.5.1 (not necessarily credible) continuation promises γ : A → W such that, for all players i, and all ai ∈ Ai , ∗ ∗ ) + δγi (ai , a−i ). (1 − δ)ui (a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i

In other words, when the other players play their part of an enforceable proﬁle a ∗ , the continuation promises γi make (enforce) the choice of ai∗ optimal (incentive compatible) for i. Definition A payoff v ∈ F † is pure-action decomposable on W if there exists a pure action

2.5.2 proﬁle a ∗ enforceable on W such that

vi = (1 − δ)ui (a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ), where γ is a function enforcing a ∗ .

38

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If a payoff vector is pure-action decomposable on W , then it is “one-period credible” with respect to promises in the set W . If those promises are themselves pure-action decomposable on W , then the original payoff vector is “two-period credible.” If a set of payoffs W is pure-action decomposable on itself, then each such payoff has “inﬁnite-period credibility.” One might expect such a payoff vector to be a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff, and indeed this is correct. Proposition Any set of payoffs W ⊂ F † with the property that every payoff in W is pure-

2.5.1 action decomposable on W is a set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs. The proof views W as the set of states for an automaton. Pure-action decomposability allows us to associate an action proﬁle and a transition function describing continuation values to each payoff proﬁle in W . Proof For each payoff proﬁle v ∈ W , let a(v) ˜ and γ v : A → W be the decomposing

pure-action proﬁle and its enforcing continuation promise. Consider the collection of automata {(W , v, f, τ ) : v ∈ W }, where the common set of states is given by W , the common decision function by f (v) = a(v) ˜ for all v ∈ W , and the common transition function by τ (v, a) = γ v (a), for all a ∈ A. These automata differ only in their initial state v ∈ W . We need to show that for each v ∈ W , the automaton (W , v, f, τ ) describes a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoff v. This will be an implication of proposition 2.4.1 and the pure-action decomposability of each v ∈ W , once we have shown that vi = Vi (v), where Vi (v) is the value to player i of being in state v. Because each v ∈ W is decomposable by a pure action proﬁle, for any v we can 0 deﬁne a sequence of payoff-action proﬁle pairs {(v k , a k )}∞ k=0 as follows: v = v, k−1 0 0 k v k−1 k k ˜ ), v = γ (a ), and a = a(v ˜ ). We then have a = a(v vi = (1 − δ)ui (a 0 ) + δvi1 = (1 − δ)ui (a 0 ) + δ{(1 − δ)ui (a 1 ) + δvi2 } = (1 − δ)

t−1

δ s ui (a s ) + δ t vit .

s=0

Since

vit

∈

F †,

{vit }

is a bounded sequence, and taking t → ∞ yields vi = (1 − δ)

∞

δ s ui (a s )

s=0

and so vi = Vi (v). ■

2.5

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39

Generating Equilibria

Definition A set W is pure-action self-generating if every payoff in W is pure-action

2.5.3 decomposable on W .

An immediate implication of this result is the following important result. Corollary The set E p of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs is the largest

2.5.1 pure-action self-generating set. In particular, it is clear that any pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff is pure-action decomposable on the set E p , because this is simply the statement that every history must give rise to continuation play that is itself a pure-strategy subgameperfect equilibrium. The set E P is thus pure-action self-generating. Proposition 2.5.1 implies that any other pure-action self-generating set is also a set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibria, and hence must be a subset of E p . Remark Fixed point characterization of self-generation For any set W ⊂ F † , let Ba (W )

2.5.1 be the set of payoffs v ∈ F † decomposed by a ∈ A and continuations in W . Corollary 2.5.1 can then be written as: The set E p is the largest set W satisfying W = ∪a∈A Ba (W ). When players have access to a public correlating device, a payoff v is decomposed by a distribution over action proﬁles α and continuation values. Hence the set of payoffs that can be decomposed on a set W using public correlation is co(∪a∈A Ba (coW )), where coW denotes the convex hull of W . Hence, the set of equilibrium payoffs under public correlation is the largest convex set W satisfying W = co(∪a∈A Ba (W )). ◆ We then have the following useful result (a similar proof shows that the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs is compact).

Proposition The set E p ⊂ Rn of pure-strategy subgame-equilibrium payoffs is compact.

2.5.2 Proof Because E p is a bounded subset of a Euclidean space, it sufﬁces (from corol-

lary 2.5.1) to show that its closure E p is pure-action self-generating. Let v be a payoff proﬁle in E p , and suppose {v () }∞ =0 is a sequence of purestrategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs, converging to v, with each v () decomposable via the action proﬁle a () and continuation promise γ () . If every Ai is ﬁnite, {(a () , γ () )} lies in the compact set A × (E p )A , and so there is a subsequence converging to (a ∞ , γ ∞ ), with a ∞ ∈ A and γ ∞ (a) ∈ E p for all a ∈ A. Moreover, it is immediate that (a ∞ , γ ∞ ) decomposes v on E p . Suppose now that Ai is a continuum action space for some i. Although (E p )A is not sequentially compact, we can proceed as follows. For each and i, let v (),i ∈ E p such that

40

Chapter 2

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Perfect Monitoring (),i

vi

= inf γi (ai , a−i ) ()

()

ai =ai

()

and γˆ

()

(a) =

v (),i ,

()

if ai = ai

γ () (a () ),

()

and a−i = a−i for some i,

otherwise.

Clearly, each v () is decomposed by a () and γˆ () . Let A () denote the ﬁnite partition of A given by {A(),k : k = 0, . . . , n}, where A(),i = {a ∈ A : ai = () () ai , a−i = a−i } and A(),0 = A \ ∪i A(),i . Because γˆ () is measurable with respect to A () , which has n + 1 elements, we can treat γˆ () as a function from the ﬁnite set {0, . . . , n} into E p , and so there is a convergent subsequence, and the argument is completed as for ﬁnite Ai . ■

2.5.2 Example: Mutual Effort This and the following two subsections illustrate decomposability and self-generation. We work with the prisoners’ dilemma shown in ﬁgure 2.5.1. We ﬁrst identify the set of discount factors for which there exists a subgameperfect equilibrium in which both players exert effort in every period. In light of proposition 2.5.1, this is equivalent to identifying the discount factors for which there is a self-generating set of payoffs W containing (2, 2). If such a set W is to exist, then the action proﬁle EE is enforceable on W , or, (1 − δ)2 + δγ1 (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)b + δγ1 (SE) and (1 − δ)2 + δγ2 (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)b + δγ2 (ES), for γ (EE), γ (SE) and γ (ES) in W ⊂ F † . These inequalities are least restrictive when γ1 (SE) = γ2 (ES) = 0. Because the singleton set of payoffs {(0, 0)} is itself self-generating, we sacriﬁce no generality by assuming the self-generating set contains (0, 0). We can then set γ1 (SE) = γ2 (ES) = 0. Similarly, the pair of inequalities is least restrictive when γi (EE) = 2 for i = 1, 2. Taking this to the case, the inequalities hold when

E E

2, 2

S

b, −c

S −c, b 0, 0

Figure 2.5.1 Prisoners’ dilemma, where b > 2, c > 0, and b − c < 4.

2.5

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41

Generating Equilibria

δ≥

b−2 b .

(2.5.1)

The inequality given by (2.5.1) is thus necessary for the existence of a subgame-perfect equilibrium giving payoff (2, 2). The inequality is sufﬁcient as well, because it implies that the set {(0, 0), (2, 2)} is self-generating. For the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 2.4.1, we have the familiar result that δ ≥ 1/3. 2.5.3 Example: The Folk Theorem We next identify the set of discount factors under which a pure-strategy folk theorem result holds, in the sense that the set of pure strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs E P contains the set of feasible, strictly individually rational payoffs F †p , which equals F ∗ for the prisoners’ dilemma. Hence, we seek a pure-action selfgenerating set W containing F ∗ . Because the set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs is compact, if F ∗ is pure-action self-generating, then so is its closure F ∗ . The payoff proﬁles in F ∗ are feasible and weakly individually rational, differing from those in F ∗ by including proﬁles in which one or both players receive their minmax payoff of 0. Because the set of pure-action subgame-perfect equilibria is the largest pure-action self-generating set, our candidate for the pure-action selfgenerating set W must be F ∗ . If F ∗ is pure-action self-generating, then every v ∈ F ∗ is precisely the payoff of some pure strategy equilibrium. Note that this includes those v that are convex combinations of payoffs in F p with irrational weights (reﬂecting the denseness of the rationals in the reals). We begin by identifying the sets of payoffs that are pure-action decomposable using the four pure action proﬁles EE, ES, SE, and SS, and continuation payoffs in F ∗ . Consider ﬁrst EE. This action proﬁle is enforced by γ on F ∗ if (1 − δ)2 + δγ1 (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)b + δγ1 (SE) and (1 − δ)2 + δγ2 (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)b + δγ2 (ES). We are interested in the set of payoffs that can be decomposed using the action proﬁle EE. The ﬁrst step in ﬁnding this set is to identify the continuation payoffs γ (EE) that are consistent with enforcing EE. Because vi ≥ 0 for all v ∈ F ∗ and (0, 0) ∈ F ∗ , the largest set of values of γ (EE) consistent with enforcing EE is found by setting γ1 (SE) = γ2 (ES) = 0 (which minimizes the right side). The set AEE of continuation payoffs γ (EE) consistent with enforcing EE is, then, (b − 2)(1 − δ) AEE = γ ∈ F ∗ : γi ≥ , δ and the set of payoffs that are decomposable using EE and F ∗ is BEE = {γ ∈ F ∗ : γ = (1 − δ)(2, 2) + δγ (EE), γ (EE) ∈ AEE }. This set is simply BEE (F ∗ ) (see remark 2.5.1).

42

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The incentive constraints for the action proﬁle ES are −(1 − δ)c + δγ1 (ES) ≥ δγ1 (SS) and (1 − δ)b + δγ2 (ES) ≥ (1 − δ)2 + δγ2 (EE). We are again interested in the largest set of continuation values, in this case values γ (ES), consistent with the incentive constraints. The second inequality can be ignored, because we can set γ (EE) = γ (ES), implying γ2 (EE) = γ2 (ES). As before, we minimize the right side of the ﬁrst inequality by setting γ1 (SS) = 0 (which we can do by taking γ (SS) = (0, 0)). Hence, the set of continuation payoffs γ (ES) consistent with enforcing the proﬁle ES is c(1 − δ) ∗ AES = γ ∈ F : γ1 ≥ δ and the set of payoffs decomposable using ES and F ∗ is BES = {γ ∈ F ∗ : γ = (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δγ (ES), γ (ES) ∈ AES }. A similar argument shows that the set of continuation payoffs consistent with enforcing the proﬁle SE is c(1 − δ) , ASE = γ ∈ F ∗ : γ2 ≥ δ and the set of payoffs decomposable using SE and F ∗ is BSE = {γ ∈ F ∗ : γ = (1 − δ)(b, −c) + δγ (SE), γ (SE) ∈ ASE }. Finally, because SS is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, and hence no appeal to continuation payoffs need be made when constructing current incentives to play SS, the set of continuation payoffs consistent with enforcing SS as an initial period action proﬁle is the set ASS = F ∗ , and the set of payoffs decomposable using SS and F ∗ is BSS = {γ ∈ F ∗ : γ = δγ (SS), γ (SS) ∈ F ∗ }. A geometric representation of the sets Ba1 a2 is helpful. We can write them as: BEE = {v ∈ (1 − δ)(2, 2) + δF ∗ : vi ≥ (1 − δ)b, i = 1, 2}, BES = {v ∈ (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δF ∗ : v1 ≥ 0}, BSE = {v ∈ (1 − δ)(b, −c) + δF ∗ : v2 ≥ 0}, and BSS = δF ∗ . Each set is a subset of the convex combination of the ﬂow payoffs implied by the relevant pure action proﬁle and F ∗ , with the appropriate restriction implied by incentive compatibility. For example, the restriction in AEE that γi (EE) ≥ (b − 2)(1 − δ)/δ implies

2.5

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43

Generating Equilibria

vi = (1 − δ)2 + δγi (EE) ≥ (1 − δ)2 + δ

(b − 2)(1 − δ) δ

= (1 − δ)b.

Similarly, the restriction in AES that γ1 (ES) ≥ c(1 − δ)/δ implies v1 ≥ (1 − δ)(−c) + δ

c(1 − δ) = 0. δ

Figure 2.5.2 illustrates these sets for a case in which they are nonempty and do not intersect. The set BEE is nonempty when (2.5.1) holds (i.e., δ ≥ (b − 2)/b) and includes all those payoff proﬁles in F ∗ whose components both exceed (1 − δ)b. Hence, when nonempty, BEE includes the upper right corner of the set F ∗ . The set BSS is necessarily nonempty and reproduces F ∗ in miniature, anchored at the origin. The set BES is in the upper left, if it is nonempty, consisting of a shape with either three or four sides, one of which is the line γ2 = (1 − δ)b and one of which is the vertical axis, with the remaining two sides (or single side) being parallel to the efﬁcient frontier (parallel to the efﬁcient frontier between (2, 2) and the horizontal axis). Whether this shape has three or four sides depends on whether (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δ(2, 2), the payoff generated by (2, 2), lies to the left (three sides) or right (four sides) of the vertical axis. When do the sets BEE , BES , BSE , and BSS have F ∗ as their union? If they do, then ∗ F is self-generating, and hence we can support any payoff in F ∗ as a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. From ﬁgure 2.5.2 we can derive a pair of simple necessary and sufﬁcient conditions for this to be the case. First, the point (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δ(2, 2), the top right corner of BES , must lie to the right of the top-left corner of BEE . This requires (1 − δ)(−c) + δ2 ≥ (1 − δ)b. Applying symmetric reasoning to BSE , this condition will sufﬁce to ensure that any payoff in F ∗ with at least one component above (1 − δ)b is contained in either BEE ,

( −c , b )

(1 − δ )( −c, b) + δ ( 2,2)

(1 − δ )(−c, b)

(2, 2)

BES

BEE (1 − δ )( −c, b) + δ (v ,0)

δ ( 2,2) BSS

BSE

(v ,0)

(0,0) (1 − δ )(b,0)

(b,−c)

Figure 2.5.2 Illustration of the sets BEE , BES , BSE , and BSS . This is drawn for δ = 1/2 and the payoffs from ﬁgure 2.4.1. Because b = c + 2, the right edge of BES is a continuation of the right edge of BSS ; a similar comment applies to the top edges of BSS and BSE .

44

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Perfect Monitoring

BES , or BSE . To ensure that BSS contains the rest, it sufﬁces that the top right corner of BSS lie above the bottom left boundary of BEE , which is δ2 ≥ (1 − δ)b. Solving these two inequalities, we have12 b+c b+c b δ ≥ max , = . b+c+2 b+2 b+c+2 For the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 2.4.1, we have δ ≥ 2/3. The previous section showed that when δ ≥ 1/3, there exist equilibria supporting mutual effort in every period. When δ ≥ 2/3, there are also equilibria in which every other feasible weakly individually rational payoff proﬁle is an equilibrium outcome. 2.5.4 Example: Constructing Equilibria for Low δ We now return to the prisoners’ dilemma in ﬁgure 2.4.1. We examine the set of subgame-perfect equilibria in which player 2 always plays E. Mailath, Obara, and Sekiguchi (2002) provide a detailed analysis. We proceed just far enough to illustrate how equilibria can be constructed using decomposability. Deviations from the candidate equilibrium outcome path trigger a switch to perpetual shirking, the most severe punishment available. It is immediate that if player 2’s incentive constraint is satisﬁed, then so is player 1’s, so we focus on player 2. Let γ2t denote the normalized discounted value to player 2 of the continuation outcome path {(a1τ , E)}∞ τ =t beginning in period t. Given the punishment of persistent defection, the condition that it be optimal for player 2 to continue with the equilibrium action of effort in period t ≥ 0 is (1 − δ)u2 (a1t , E) + δγ2t+1 ≥ (1 − δ)u2 (a1t , S) + δ × 0, which holds if and only if γ2t+1 ≥

1−δ . δ

(2.5.2)

Thus, player 2’s continuation value is always at least (1 − δ)/δ in any equilibrium in which 2 currently exerts effort. Denote by W2EE the set of payoffs for player 2 that can be decomposed through a combination of mutual effort (EE) in the current period coupled with a payoff γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2]. Then we have v2 ∈ W2EE ⇐⇒ ∃γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2] s.t. v2 = (1 − δ)u2 (EE) + δγ2 = (1 − δ)2 + δγ2 . Hence, W2EE = [3 − 3δ, 2]. 12. Notice that if this condition is satisﬁed, we automatically have δ > (b − 2)/b, ensuring that BEE is nonempty.

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Similarly, denote by W2SE the set of payoffs for player 2 that can be decomposed using current play of SE and a continuation payoff γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2]: v2 ∈ W2SE ⇐⇒ ∃γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2] s.t. v2 = (1 − δ)u2 (SE) + δγ2 = (1 − δ)(−1) + δγ2 . This yields W2SE = [0, 3δ − 1]. Collecting these results, we have W2EE = [3 − 3δ, 2]

(2.5.3)

W2SE = [0, 3δ − 1].

(2.5.4)

and

We now consider several possible values of the discount factor. First, suppose δ < 1/3. Then it is immediate from (2.5.3)–(2.5.4) that W2EE and W2SE are both empty. Hence, there are no continuation payoffs available that can induce player 2 to exert effort in the current period, regardless of player 1’s behavior. Applying an analogous argument to player 1, the only possible equilibrium payoff for this case (δ < 1/3) is (0, 0), obtained by perpetual shirking. Suppose instead that δ ≥ 2/3. Then (2.5.3)–(2.5.4) imply that W2EE ∪ W2SE = [0, 2]. In this case, proposition 2.5.1 implies that every payoff on the segment {(v1 , v2 ): v1 = 83 − v32 , v2 ∈ [0, 2]} (including irrational values) can be supported as an equilibrium payoff in the ﬁrst period. This case is illustrated in ﬁgure 2.5.3. The line SE is given by the equation γ2 = (1 − δ)/δ + v2 /δ for v2 ∈ W2SE . The line EE is given by the equation γ2 = −2(1 − δ)/δ + v2 /δ for v2 ∈ W2EE . For any payoff in [0, 2], either v2 ∈ W2EE or W2SE . If v2 ∈ W2EE , then the payoff v2 can be achieved by coupling

γ2 2

SE EE

1− δ

δ

SE

EE

2

0

2

3 − 3δ

3δ − 1

2

υ2

Figure 2.5.3 The case where W2EE ∪ W2SE = [0, 2]; this is drawn for

δ = 3/4. The equation for the line labeled SE is γ2 = (1 − δ)/δ + v2 /δ, and for the line EE is γ2 = −2(1 − δ)/δ + v2 /δ.

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γ2 2

SE EE 1 4 2

0 5

1− δ

3

δ

3 − 3δ

υˆ2

3δ − 1

2

υ2

Figure 2.5.4 An illustration of the recursion (2.5.5) and (2.5.6) for an equilibrium with player 2 payoff vˆ2 , for δ = 3/4. The outcome path is (SE, (SE, EE, EE, SE, EE)∞ ), with the path after the initial period corresponding to the labeled cycle 12345.

current play of EE with a continuation payoff γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2] (yielding a point (v2 , γ2 ) on the line labeled EE). If v2 ∈ W2SE , then v2 can be achieved by coupling current play of SE with a continuation payoff γ2 ∈ [(1 − δ)/δ, 2] (yielding a point (v2 , γ2 ) on the line SE) . To construct an equilibrium with payoff to player 2 of v2 ∈ [0, 1], we proceed recursively as follows: Set γ20 = v2 . Then,13 γ2t+1

=

−2(1 − δ)/δ + γ2t /δ, if γ2t ∈ W2EE , (1 − δ)/δ + γ2t /δ,

if γ2t ∈ [0, 3 − 3δ).

(2.5.5)

An outcome path yielding payoff v2 to player 2 is then given by a = t

EE,

if γ2t ∈ W2EE ,

SE,

if γ2t ∈ [0, 3 − 3δ).

(2.5.6)

This recursion is illustrated in ﬁgure 2.5.4. 2.5.5 Example: Failure of Monotonicity The analysis of the previous subsection suggests that the set of pure-strategy equilibrium payoffs is a monotonic function of the discount factor. When δ is less than 1/3, the set of equilibrium payoffs is a singleton, containing only (0, 0). At δ = 1/3, we add the payoff (8/3, 0) (from the equilibrium outcome path (SE, EE ∞ )). For δ in the interval 13. There are potentially many equilibria with player 2 payoff v2 , arising from the possibility that a continuation falls into both W2EE and W2SE . We construct the equilibrium corresponding to decomposing the continuation on W2EE whenever possible.

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[2/3, 1), we have all the payoffs in the set {(v1 , v2 ) : v1 = 83 − v32 , v2 ∈ [0, 2]}. The next lemma, however, implies that the set of pure-strategy equilibrium payoffs is not monotonic. Lemma For δ ∈ [1/3, 0.45), in every pure subgame-perfect outcome, if a player plays E

2.5.1 in period t, then the opponent must play E in period t + 1. Consequently, the equilibrium payoff to player 1 (consistent with player 2 always exerting effort) is maximized by the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ). Player 1’s maximum payoff over the set of all subgame-perfect equilibria is decreasing in δ in this range.

Proof Consider an outcome path in which a player (say, 2) is supposed to play E in

period t and the other player is supposed to play S in period t + 1. As we saw from (2.5.2), we need player 2’s period t+1 continuation value to be at least (1 − δ)/δ to support such actions as part of equilibrium behavior. However, the continuation value is given by (1 − δ)u2 (Sa2t+1 ) + δγ2t+2 ≤ (1 − δ) × 0 + δ 83 =

8δ 3,

and 8δ/3 ≥ (1 − δ)/δ requires δ > 0.45, a contradiction. Hence, if a player exerts effort, the opponent must exert effort in the next period. Player 1’s stage-game payoff is maximized by playing S while 2 plays E. Hence, player 1’s equilibrium payoff is maximized, subject to 2 always exerting effort, by either the outcome path EE ∞ or (SE, EE ∞ ). If there is to be any profitable one-shot deviation from the latter, it must be proﬁtable for player 2 to defect in the ﬁrst period or player 1 to defect in the second period. Acalculation shows that because δ ∈ [1/3, 0.45), neither deviation is proﬁtable. Hence, the latter path is an equilibrium outcome path, supported by punishments of mutual perpetual shirking. Moreover, player 1’s payoff from this equilibrium is a decreasing function of the discount factor, maximized at δ = 1/3. Finally, we need to show that, when δ ∈ [1/3, 0.45), the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) yields a higher payoff to player 1 than any other equilibrium outcome. Because δ < 0.8, the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) yields a higher player 1 payoff than (ES, SE ∞ ), and so the outcome path a that maximizes 1’s payoff must have SE in period 0, and by the ﬁrst claim in the lemma, 1 must play E in period 1. If player 2 plays E as well, then the resulting outcome path is (SE, EE ∞ ). Suppose a = (SE, EE ∞ ), so that player 2 plays S in period 1. But the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) yields a higher player 1 payoff than (SE, ES, SE ∞ ), a contradiction. ■

Lemma 2.5.1 is an instance of an important general phenomenon. For the outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) and δ ∈ (1/3, 0.45), player 2’s incentive constraint holds strictly in every period. In other words, player 2’s incentive constraint is still satisﬁed when 2’s equilibrium continuation value is reduced by a small amount. This suggests that we should be able to increase player 1’s total payoff by a corresponding small amount. However, there is a discreteness in incentives: The only way to increase player 1’s total payoff is for him to play S in some future period, and, as lemma 2.5.1 reveals, for δ < 0.45, this is inconsistent with player 2 playing E in the previous period. That is, the effect on payoffs of having player 1 choose S in some future period is sufﬁciently

48

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Perfect Monitoring

large to violate 2’s incentive constraints. It is not possible to increase player 1’s value by a small enough amount that player 2’s incentive constraint is preserved. There remains the possibility of mixing: Could we produce a smaller increase in player 1’s value while preserving player 2’s incentives by having player 1 choose S in some future period with a probability less than 1? Such a randomization will preserve player 2’s incentives. However, it will not increase player 1’s value, because in equilibrium, player 1 must be indifferent between E and S in any period in which he is supposed to randomize. A public correlating device allows an escape from these constraints by allowing 1 to play S and E with positive probability in the same period, conditioning on the public signal, without indifference between S and E. In particular, player 1 can now be punished for not playing the action appropriate for the realization of the public signal, allowing incentives for mixing without indifference. Section 2.5.6 develops this possibility (see also the discussion just before proposition 7.3.4). We conclude this subsection with some ﬁnal comments on the structure of equilibpath that maximizes rium. The outcome path (SE, EE ∞ ) is the equilibrium outcome √ 1’s payoff, when √ 2 always chooses E, for δ ∈ [1/3, 1/ 3). The critical implication of δ < 1/ 3 ≈ 0.577 is (1 − δ)/δ > 3δ − 1 (see ﬁgure 2.5.5), so that player 2’s payoff from (SE, SE, EE ∞ ) is negative, and applying (2.5.5) to any γ2 ∈ W2EE t EE SE with γ2 < 2 eventually yields a value √ γ2 ∈ W2 ∪ W2 . Figure 2.5.5 illustrates the recursion (2.5.5)–(2.5.6)√for δ = 1/ 3. Finally, for δ ∈ [1/ 3, 2/3), although W2SE is disjoint from W2EE (and so [0, 2] is not self-generating), there are nontrivial self-generating sets and so subgame-perfect equilibria. The smallest value of δ with efﬁcient equilibrium√outcome paths in which 2 always chooses E and 1 chooses S more than once is δ = 1/ 3. Figure 2.5.5 illustrates this for the critical value of δ. The value v < 3δ − 1 in the ﬁgure is the value of the

γ2 2

SE

EE

1− δ

δ SE

EE

2

v′′

2

v′

3δ − 1

3 − 3δ

2

υ2

Figure 2.5.5 An illustration of the recursion for an equilibrium with player 2 √ payoff v , for δ = 1/ 3. The outcome path of this equilibrium is (SE, EE, EE, EE, SE, EE ∞ ). Any strictly positive player 2 payoff strictly less than v is not an equilibrium payoff.

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49

Generating Equilibria

outcome path (SE, EE 3 , SE, EE ∞ ). For this value of δ, there are a countable number of efﬁcient equilibrium payoffs, associated with outcome paths (SE x , EE t , SE, EE ∞ ), where x ∈ {0, 1} and t is a nonnegative integer. 2.5.6 Example: Public Correlation In this section, we illustrate the impact of allowing players to use a public correlating device. In particular, we will show that for the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 2.5.1, the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs (with public correlation) is increasing in δ. We consider the case in which c < b − 2 (retaining, of course, the assumption b − c < 4). This moves us away from the c = b − 2 case of ﬁgure 2.4.1, on which we comment shortly. With public correlation, it sufﬁces for E p (δ) = F ∗ that each of the four sets in ﬁgure 2.5.2 be nonempty, and their union contains the extreme points {(0, 0), (v, ¯ 0), (0, v), ¯ (2, 2)} of F ∗ . We have noted that (2, 2) ∈ BEE when δ ≥ (b − 2)/b. From ﬁgure 2.5.2, it is clear that (0, v) ¯ ∈ BES when δ ≥ c/(c + 2). Hence, p ∗ E (δ) = F when b−2 c δ ≥ max b−2 b , c+2 = b . (The equality is implied by our assumption that c < b − 2.) In this case, public correlation allows the players to achieve any payoff in F ∗ (recall remark 2.5.1): First observe that each extreme point can be decomposed using one of the action proﬁles EE, ES, SE, or SS and continuations in F ∗ . Any payoff v ∈ F ∗ can be written as ¯ 0) + α3 (0, v) ¯ + α4 (2, 2), where α is a correlated action proﬁle. v = α1 (0, 0) + α2 (v, The payoff v is decomposed by α and continuations in F ∗ , where the continuations depend on the realized action proﬁle under α. We now turn to values of δ < (b − 2)/b. Because BEE is empty, EE cannot be enforced on F ∗ , even using public correlation. Hence, only the action proﬁles SS, SE, and ES can be taken in equilibrium. Recalling remark 2.5.1 again, the set E p is the largest convex set W satisfying W = co(BSS (W ) ∪ BES (W ) ∪ BSE (W )).

(2.5.7)

Because every payoff in E p is decomposed by an action proﬁle ES, SE, or SS and a payoff in E p , it is the discounted average value of the ﬂow payoffs from ES, SE, and SS. Consequently, E p must be a subset of the convex hull of (−c, b), (b, −c), and 2 and the convex (0, 0) (the triangle in ﬁgure 2.5.6). Let W denote the intersection of R+ hull of (−c, b), (b, −c), and (0, 0), that is, W = {(v : vi ≥ 0, v1 + v2 ≤ b − c}. The set W satisﬁes (2.5.7) if and only if the extreme points of W can be decomposed on W . Because (0, 0) can be trivially decomposed, symmetry allows us to focus on the decomposition of (0, b − c). Decomposing this point requires continuations γ ∈ W to satisfy (0, b − c) = (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δγ

(2.5.8)

and player 1’s incentive constraint, γ1 ≥

c(1 − δ) . δ

(2.5.9)

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( −c , b )

BES

( 0, b − c )

(2,2)

(1 − δ )(−c, b)

BSS

BSE

(0,0) (b, −c) Figure 2.5.6 The sets Ba = Ba (W ) for a ∈ {ES, SE, SS} and 2 ∩ co({(−c, b), (b, −c), (0, 0)}), where c < b − 2 W = R+ and δ < (b − 2)/b.

Equation (2.5.8) implies γ1 = c(1 − δ)/δ, that is, (2.5.9) holds. The requirement that γ ∈ W is then equivalent to 0 ≤ γ2 ≤ b − c − γ1 c(1 − δ) =b−c− δ δb − c , = δ that is, δb ≥ c. Finally, suppose δb < c, so that W does not satisfy (2.5.7). We now argue that the only set that can is {(0, 0)}, and so always SS is the only equilibrium. We derive a contradiction from the assumption that v = (0, 0) can be decomposed by ES. Because v = (1 − δ)(−c, b) + δγ , γ1 = [v1 + (1 − δ)c]/δ ≥ (1 − δ)c/δ, and so γ2 ≤ (b − c) − γ1 ≤ (δb − c)/δ. But δb < c implies γ2 < 0, which is impossible. This completes the characterization of the prisoners’ dilemma for this case. The set of equilibrium payoffs is: ∗ if δ ≥ b−2 , F , cb b−2 p 2 E = R+ ∩ co({(−c, b), (b, −c), (0, 0)}), if δ ∈ b , b , {(0, 0)}, otherwise. The critical value of δ, (b − 2)/b, is less than (b + c)/(b + c + 2), the critical value for a folk theorem without public correlation. The set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs is monotonic, in the sense that the set of equilibrium payoffs at least weakly expands as the discount factor increases. However, the relationship is neither strictly monotonic nor smooth. Instead, we take two discontinuous jumps in the set of payoffs that can be supported, one (at δ = c/b) from the trivial equilibrium to a subset of the set of feasible, weakly individually rational payoffs, and one (at δ = (b − 2)/b) to the set of all feasible and weakly individually rational payoffs. Stahl (1991) shows that the monotonicity property is

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Constructing Equilibria

preserved for other speciﬁcations of the parameters b and c consistent with the game being a prisoners’ dilemma, though the details of the solutions differ. For example, when c = b − 2, as in ﬁgure 2.4.1, there is a single jump from the trivial equilibrium to being able to support the entire set of feasible, weakly individually rational payoffs.

2.6

Constructing Equilibria: Simple Strategies and Penal Codes

As in the previous section, we restrict attention to pure strategies (the analysis can be extended to mixed strategies at a signiﬁcant cost of increased notation). By corollary 2.5.1, any action proﬁle appearing on a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium path is decomposable on the set E p of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs. By compactness of E p , there is a collection of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium proﬁles {σ 1 , . . . , σ n }, with σ i yielding the lowest possible pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff for player i. In this section, we will show that out-of-equilibrium behavior in any pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium can be decomposed on the set {U (σ 1 ), . . . , U (σ n )}. This in turn leads to a simple recipe for constructing equilibria. 2.6.1 Simple Strategies and Penal Codes We begin with the concept of a simple strategy proﬁle:14 Definition Given (n + 1) outcomes {a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)}, the associated simple strategy

2.6.1 proﬁle σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)) is given by the automaton: W = {0, 1, . . . , n} × {0, 1, 2, . . .}, w0 = (0, 0), f (j, t) = a t (j ), and τ ((j, t), a) =

(i, 0),

t (j ), if ai = ait (j ) and a−i = a−i

(j, t + 1), otherwise.

A simple strategy consists of a prescribed outcome a(0) and a “punishment” outcome a(i) for each player i. Under the proﬁle, play continues according to the outcome a(0). Players respond to any deviation by player i with a switch to the player i punishment outcome path a(i). If player i deviates from the path a(i), then a(i) starts again from the beginning. If some other player j deviates, then a switch is made to the player j punishment outcome a(j ). A critical feature of simple strategy proﬁles is that the punishment for a deviation by player i is independent of when the deviation occurs and of the nature of the deviation. The proﬁles used to prove the folk theorem for perfect-monitoring repeated games (in sections 3.3 and 3.4) are simple. 14. Recall that a is an outcome path (a 0 , a 1 , . . .) with a t ∈ A an action proﬁle.

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We can use the one-shot deviation principle to identify necessary and sufﬁcient conditions for a simple strategy proﬁle to be a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Let Uit (a) = (1 − δ)

∞

δ τ −t ui (a τ )

τ =t

be the payoff to player i from the outcome path (a t , a t+1 , . . .) (note that for any strategy proﬁle σ , Ui (σ ) = Ui0 (a(σ ))). Lemma The simple strategy proﬁle σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)) is a subgame-perfect equilib-

2.6.1 rium if and only if t (j )) + δUi0 (a(i)), Uit (a(j )) ≥ max (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i ai ∈Ai

(2.6.1)

for all i = 1, . . . , n, j = 0, 1, . . . , n, and t = 0, 1, . . . Proof The right side of (2.6.1) is the payoff to player i from deviating from outcome

path a(j ) in the tth period, and the left side is the payoff from continuing with the outcome. If this condition holds, then no player will ﬁnd it proﬁtable to deviate from any of the outcomes (a(0), . . . , a(n)). Condition 2.6.1 thus sufﬁces for subgame perfection. Because a player might be called on (in a suitable out-of-equilibrium event) to play any period t of any outcome a(j ) in a simple strategy proﬁle, condition (2.6.1) is also necessary for subgame perfection. ■

Remark Nash reversion and trigger strategies A particularly simple simple strategy pro-

2.6.1 ﬁle has, for all i = 1, . . . , n, a(i) being a constant sequence of the same static Nash equilibrium. Such a simple strategy proﬁle uses Nash reversion to provide incentives. We also refer to such Nash reversion proﬁles as trigger strategy proﬁles or trigger proﬁles. A trigger proﬁle is a grim trigger proﬁle if the Nash equilibrium minmaxes the deviator. If the trigger proﬁle uses the same Nash equilibrium to punish all deviators, grim trigger mutually minmaxes the players. ◆ A simple strategy proﬁle speciﬁes an equilibrium path a(0) and a penal code {a(1), . . . , a(n)} describing responses to deviations from equilibrium play. We are interested in optimal penal codes, embodying the most severe such punishments. Let vi∗ = min{Ui (σ ) : σ ∈ E p } be the smallest pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff for player i (which is well deﬁned by the compactness of E p ). Then: Definition Let {a(i) : i = 1, . . . , n} be n outcome paths satisfying

2.6.2 Ui0 (a(i)) = vi∗ , i = 1, . . . , n.

(2.6.2)

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The collection of n simple strategy proﬁles {σ (i) : i = 1, . . . , n}, σ (i) = σ (a(i), a(1), . . . , a(n)), is an optimal penal code if σ (i) ∈ E p ,

i = 1, . . . , n.

Do optimal penal codes exist? Compactness of E p yields the subgame-perfect outcome paths a(i) satisfying (2.6.2). The remaining question is whether the associated simple strategy proﬁles constitute equilibria. The ﬁrst statement of the following proposition shows that optimal penal codes exist. The second, reproducing the key result of Abreu (1988, theorem 5), is the punchline of the characterization of subgame-perfect equilibria: Simple strategies sufﬁce to achieve any feasible subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. Proposition 1. Let {a(i)}ni=1 be n outcome paths of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilib-

2.6.1

ria {σˆ (i)}ni=1 satisfying Ui (σˆ (i)) = vi∗ , i = 1, . . . , n. The simple strategy proﬁle σ (i) = σ (a(i), a(1), . . . , a(n)) is a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium, for i = 1, . . . , n, and hence {σ (i)}ni=1 is an optimal penal code. 2. The pure outcome path a(0) can be supported as an outcome of a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if there exist pure outcome paths {a(1), . . . , a(n)} such that the simple strategy proﬁle σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)) is a subgame-perfect equilibrium.

Hence, anything that can be accomplished with a subgame-perfect equilibrium in terms of payoffs can be accomplished with simple strategies. As a result, we need never consider complex hierarchies of punishments when constructing subgame-perfect equilibria, nor do we need to tailor punishments to the deviations that prompted them (beyond the identity of the deviator). It sufﬁces to associate one punishment with each player, to be applied whenever needed. Proof The “if” direction of statement 2 is immediate.

To prove statement 1 and the “only if” direction of statement 2, let a(0) be the outcome of a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Let (a(1), . . . , a(n)) be outcomes of subgame-perfect equilibria (σˆ (1), . . . , σˆ (n)), with Ui (σˆ i ) = vi∗ . Now consider the simple strategy proﬁle given by σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)). We claim that this strategy proﬁle constitutes a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Considering arbitrary a(0), this argument establishes statement 2. For a(0) ∈ {a(1), . . . , a(n)}, it establishes statement 1. From lemma 2.6.1, it sufﬁces to ﬁx a player i, an index j ∈ {0, 1, . . . , n}, a time t, and action ai ∈ Ai , and show t Uit (a(j )) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i (j )) + δUi0 (a(i)).

(2.6.3)

Now, by construction, a(j ) is the outcome of a subgame-perfect equilibrium— the outcome a(0) is by assumption produced by a subgame-perfect equilibrium, whereas each of a(1), . . . , a(n) is part of an optimal penal code. This ensures that for any t and ai ∈ Ai ,

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Uit (a(j )) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i (j )) + δUid (a(j ), t, ai ),

(2.6.4)

where Uid (a(j ), t, ai ) is the continuation payoff received by player i in equilibrium σ (j ) after the deviation to ai in period t. Because σ (j ) is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, the payoff Uid (a(j ), t, ai ) must itself be a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. Hence, Uid (a(j ), t, ai ) ≥ Ui0 (a(i)) = vi∗ , which with (2.6.4), implies (2.6.3), giving the result. ■

It is an immediate corollary that not only can we restrict attention to simple strategies but we can also take the penal codes involved in these strategies to be optimal. Corollary Suppose a(0) is the outcome path of some subgame-perfect equilibrium. Then

2.6.1 the simple strategy σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)), where each a(i) yields the lowest possible subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff vi∗ to player i, is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. 2.6.2 Example: Oligopoly We now present an example, based on Abreu (1986), of how simple strategies can be used in the characterization of equilibria. We do this in the context of a highly parameterized oligopoly problem, using the special structure of the latter to simplify calculations. There are n ﬁrms, indexed by i. In the stage game, each ﬁrm i chooses a quantity ai ∈ R+ (notice that in this example, action spaces are not compact). Given outputs, market price is given by 1 − ni=1 ai , when this number is nonnegative, and 0 otherwise. Each ﬁrm has a constant marginal and average cost of c < 1. The payoff of ﬁrm i from outputs a1 , . . . , an is then given by

n ui (a1 , . . . , an ) = ai max 1 − aj , 0 − c . j =1

The stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium, denoted by a1N , . . . , anN , where aiN =

1−c , n+1

i = 1, . . . , n.

Firm payoffs in this Nash equilibrium are given by, for i = 1, . . . , n, ui (a1N , . . . , anN ) =

1−c n+1

2 .

In contrast, the symmetric allocation that maximizes joint proﬁts, denoted by a1m , . . . , anm , is 1−c . aim = 2n

2.6

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Constructing Equilibria

55

Firm payoffs at this allocation are given by, for i = 1, . . . , n, 1 1−c 2 m m . ui (a1 , . . . , an ) = n 2 As usual, this stage game is inﬁnitely repeated with each ﬁrm characterized by the discount factor δ ∈ (0, 1). We restrict attention to strongly symmetric equilibria of the repeated game, that is, equilibria in which, after each history, the same quantity is chosen by every ﬁrm. We can use the restriction to strongly symmetric equilibria to economize on notation. Let q ∈ R+ denote a quantity of output and µ : R+ → R be deﬁned by µ(q) = q(max{1 − nq, 0} − c).

(2.6.5)

Hence, µ(q) is the stage-game payoff obtained by each of the n ﬁrms when they each produce output level q ∈ R+ . The function µ is essentially the function u, conﬁned to the equal-output diagonal. The shift from u(a) to µ(q) allows us to distinguish the n from the (commonly chosen) output (potentially asymmetric) action proﬁle a ∈ R+ level q ∈ R+ . In keeping with the elimination of subscripts, we let a N ∈ R+ and a m ∈ R+ denote the output chosen by each ﬁrm in the stage-game Nash equilibrium and symmetric joint-proﬁt maximizing proﬁle, respectively. Let µd (q) be the payoff to a single ﬁrm when every other ﬁrm produces output q and the ﬁrm in question maximizes its stage-game payoff. Hence (exploiting the symmetry to focus on 1’s payoff), µd (q) = max u1 (a1 , q, . . . , q) a1 ∈[0,1] 1 (1 − (n − 1)q − c)2 , if 1 − (n − 1)q − c ≥ 0 = 4 0, otherwise.

(2.6.6)

These functions exhibit the convenient structure of the oligopoly problem. The function (2.6.5) is concave, whereas (2.6.6) is convex in the relevant range, with the two being equal at the output corresponding to the unique Nash equilibrium. Figure 2.6.1 illustrates these functions. Notice that as q becomes arbitrarily large, the payoff µ(q) becomes arbitrarily small, as ﬁrms incur ever larger costs to produce so much output that they must give it away. This is an important feature of the example. The ability to impose arbitrarily large losses in a single period ensures that we can work with single-period punishments. If we had assumed an upper bound on quantities, punishments may require several periods. When turning to the folk theorem for more general games in the next chapter, the inability to impose large losses forces us to work with multiperiod punishments. As is typically the case, our characterization of the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs begins with the lowest such payoff. A symmetric subgame-perfect equilibrium is an optimal punishment if it achieves the minimum payoff, for each player, possible under a (strongly symmetric) subgame-perfect equilibrium. We cannot assume the set of subgame-perfect equilibria is compact, because the action spaces are unbounded. Instead, we let v ∗ denote the inﬁmum of the common payoff received in any subgame-perfect equilibrium and prove that the inﬁmum can be achieved.

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µ d (q) µ (q )

am

aN

q0

q

Figure 2.6.1 Illustration of the functions µ(q) = q(1 − nq − c), identifying

the payoff of each ﬁrm when each chooses an output of q, and µd (q) = (1 − (n − 1)q − c)2 /4, identifying the largest proﬁt available to one ﬁrm, given that the n − 1 other ﬁrms produce output q.

To construct a simple equilibrium giving payoff v ∗ , we begin with the largest payoff that can be achieved in a (strongly symmetric) subgame-perfect equilibrium. Let q¯ be the most collusive output level that can be enforced by v ∗ , that is,15 q¯ = arg max µ(q) = arg 1−cmax q(1 − nq − c) m N 1−c q∈[a ,a ]

q∈

2n

, n+1

subject to the constraint µ(q) ≥ (1 − δ)µd (q) + δv ∗ .

(2.6.7)

The left side of the constraint is the payoff achieved from playing q¯ in every period, and the right side is the payoff received from an optimal deviation from q, ¯ followed by a switch to the continuation payoff v ∗ . Note that q¯ ≥ a m . Because a m is the joint-proﬁt maximizing quantity, if q = a m satisﬁes (2.6.7), then the most collusive equilibrium output is q¯ = a m . If (2.6.7) is not satisﬁed at q = a m , then (noting that µ(q) is decreasing in q > a m and (2.6.7) holds strictly for q = a N ), the most collusive equilibrium output is the smallest q¯ < a N satisfying µ(q) ¯ = (1 − δ)µd (q) ¯ + δv ∗ . We now ﬁnd a particularly simple optimal punishment. For any two quantities of output (q, ¯ q), ˜ deﬁne a carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ to be strategies in which all ﬁrms play q˜ in the ﬁrst period and thereafter play q, ¯ with any deviation from these 15. We drop the nonnegativity constraint on prices in the following calculations because it is not binding. It is also clear from ﬁgure 2.6.1 that we lose nothing in excluding outputs in the interval [0, a m ) from consideration. In particular, any payoff achieved by outputs in the interval [0, a m ) can also be achieved by outputs larger than a m , with the payoff from deviating from the former output being larger than from the latter. Any equilibrium featuring the former output thus remains an equilibrium when the latter is substituted. This restriction in turn implies that µ(q) and µd (q) are both decreasing functions, a property we use repeatedly.

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Constructing Equilibria

strategies causing this prescription to be repeated. Intuitively, q˜ is the “stick” and q¯ the “carrot.” The punishment speciﬁes a single-period penalty followed by repeated play of the carrot. Deviations from the punishment simply cause it to begin again. The basic result is that carrot-and-stick punishments are optimal. Note in particular that (2.6.8) implies q˜ > a N . ¯ q) ˜ is Proposition 1. There exists an output q˜ such that the carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q, 2.6.2

an optimal punishment. 2. The optimal carrot-and-stick punishment satisﬁes ˜ = (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ = v∗, µd (q)

(2.6.8)

µ (q) ¯ = µ(q) ¯ + δ(µ(q) ¯ − µ(q)) ˜ if q¯ > a ,

(2.6.9)

¯ ≤ µ(q) ¯ + δ(µ(q) ¯ − µ(q)) ˜ if q¯ = a m . µd (q)

(2.6.10)

d

m

and

3. Let v be a symmetric subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff with µ(q) = v. Then v is the outcome of a subgame-perfect equilibrium consisting of simple strategies {a0 , σ (q, ¯ q), ˜ . . . , σ (q, ¯ q)}, ˜ where a0 plays q in every period. Because σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ is an optimal punishment and q¯ is the most collusive output, the best (strongly symmetric) subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff is given by an equilibrium that plays q¯ in every period, with any deviation prompting a switch to the optimal punishment σ (q, ¯ q). ˜ Any other symmetric equilibrium payoff can be achieved by playing an appropriate quantity q in every period, enforced by the optimal punishment σ (q, ¯ q). ˜ The implication of this result is that solving (the symmetric version of) this oligopoly problem is quite simple. If we are concerned with either the best or the worst subgame-perfect equilibrium, we need consider only two output levels, the carrot q¯ and the stick q. ˜ Having found these two, every other subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff can be attained through consideration of only three outputs, one characterizing the equilibrium path and the other two involved in the optimal punishment. In addition, calculating q¯ and q˜ is straightforward. We can ﬁrst take q¯ = a m , checking whether the most collusive output can be supported in a subgame-perfect equilibrium. To complete this check, we ﬁnd the value of q˜ satisfying (2.6.8), given q¯ = a m . At this point, we can conclude that the most collusive output a m can indeed be supported ˜ if and in a subgame-perfect equilibrium and that we have identiﬁed q¯ = a m and q, m only if the inequality (2.6.10) is also satisﬁed. If it is not, then the output a cannot be supported in equilibrium, and we solve the equalities (2.6.8)–(2.6.9) for q¯ and q. ˜ Proof Statement 1. Given v ∗ , the inﬁmum of symmetric subgame perfect equilibrium

payoffs, and hence q, ¯ choose q˜ so that (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ = v∗. We now argue that the carrot-and-stick punishment deﬁned by σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. By construction, this punishment has value v ∗ . Because deviations from q¯ would (also by construction) be unproﬁtable when

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punished by v ∗ , they are unproﬁtable when punished by σ (q, ¯ q). ˜ We need only argue that deviations from q˜ are unproﬁtable, or (1 − δ)µd (q) ˜ + δv ∗ ≤ (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ = v∗. Suppose this inequality fails. Then, because v ∗ is the inﬁmum of strongly symmetric subgame-perfect payoffs, there exists a strongly symmetric equilibrium σ ∗ such that ˜ + δv ∗ > (1 − δ)µ(q ∗ ) + U (σ ∗ |q ∗ ), (1 − δ)µd (q) where q ∗ is the ﬁrst-period output under σ ∗ and U (σ ∗ |q ∗ ) is the continuation value (from symmetry, to any ﬁrm) under σ ∗ after q ∗ has been chosen by all ﬁrms. Because σ ∗ is an equilibrium, (1 − δ)µd (q) ˜ + δv ∗ > (1 − δ)µd (q ∗ ) + δv ∗ . Because µd (q) is decreasing in q, it thus sufﬁces for the contradiction to show ¯ because the latter is q˜ ≥ q ∗ . But σ ∗ can never prescribe an output lower than q, the most collusive output supported by the (most severe) punishment v ∗ . Hence, the carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ features higher payoffs than σ ∗ in every ∗ period beyond the ﬁrst. Because v , the value of the carrot-and-stick punishment, is no larger than the value of σ ∗ , it must be that the carrot-and-stick punishment ¯ q) ˜ generates a lower ﬁrst-period payoff, and hence q˜ ≥ q ∗ . This ensures that σ (q, is an optimal punishment. Statement 2. Suppose σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ is an optimal carrot-and-stick punishment. The

requirement that ﬁrms not deviate from the stick output q˜ is given by (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ ≥ (1 − δ)µd (q) ˜ + δ(1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δ 2 µ(q). ¯ Similarly, the requirement that agents not deviate from the carrot output q¯ is µ(q) ¯ ≥ (1 − δ)µd (q) ¯ + (1 − δ)δµ(q) ˜ + δ 2 µ(q). ¯ Rearranging these two inequalities gives µd (q) ˜ ≤ (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ = v∗

(2.6.11)

µd (q) ¯ ≤ µ(q) ¯ + δ(µ(q) ¯ − µ(q)), ˜

(2.6.12)

and

where the right side of (2.6.11) is the value of the punishment. If (2.6.11) holds strictly, we can increase q˜ and hence reduce µ(q), ˜ 16 while preserving (2.6.12), because µ(q) ˜ appears only on the right side of the latter (i.e., a more severe punishment cannot make deviations from the equilibrium path more attractive). This yields a lower punishment value, a contradiction. Hence, under an optimal carrot-and-stick punishment, (2.6.11) must hold with equality, which is (2.6.8). It remains only to argue that if q¯ > a m , then (2.6.12) holds with equality (which is (2.6.9)). Suppose not. Although unilateral adjustments in either q¯ or q˜ 16. Recall that we can restrict attention to q ≥ a m .

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59

Constructing Equilibria

will violate (2.6.8), we can increase q˜ while simultaneously reducing q¯ to preserve (2.6.8). From (2.6.8), the punishment value must fall (because µd is decreasing in q). Moreover, a small increase in q˜ in this manner will not violate (2.6.12), so we have identiﬁed a carrot-and-stick punishment with a lower value, a contradiction. Statement 3. This follows immediately from the optimality of the carrot-and-stick

punishment and proposition 2.6.1. ■

Has anything been lost by our restriction to strongly symmetric equilibria? There are two possibilities. One is that, on calculating the optimal carrot-and-stick punishment, we ﬁnd that its value is 0. The minmax values of the players are 0, implying that a 0 punishment is the most severe possible. A carrot-and-stick punishment whose value is 0 is thus the most severe possible, and nothing is lost by restricting attention to strongly symmetric punishments. However, if the optimal carrot-and-stick punishment has a positive expected value, then there are more severe, asymmetric punishments available.17 When will optimal symmetric carrot-and-stick punishments be optimal overall, that is, have a value of 0? Because 0 is the minmax value for the players, the subgameperfect equilibrium given by the carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q, ¯ q) ˜ can have a value of 0 only if µd (q) ˜ = 0, that is, only if 0 is the largest payoff one can obtain by deviating from the stick phase ˜ > 0 with a punishment value of 0, a current deviation of the equilibrium. (If µd (q) followed by perpetual payoffs of 0 is proﬁtable, a contradiction.) Hence, the stick must involve sufﬁciently large production that the best response for any single ﬁrm is simply to shut down and produce nothing. ˜ = 0 requires that q˜ be sufﬁciently large, and hence µ(q) ˜ The condition µd (q) sufﬁciently negative (indeed, as δ → 1, q˜ → ∞). To preserve the 0 equilibrium value, this negative initial payoff must be balanced by subsequent positive payoffs. For this to be possible, the discount factor must be sufﬁciently large. Let (q(δ), ¯ q(δ)) ˜ be the ∗ optimal carrot-and-stick punishment quantities given discount factor δ, and v (δ) the corresponding punishment value. Then: ¯ and v ∗ (δ) are decreasing and q(δ) Lemma 1. The functions q(δ) ˜ is increasing in δ.

2.6.2 2. There exists δ < 1, such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), the optimal strongly symmetric carrot-and-stick punishment gives a value of 0 and hence is optimal overall.

Proof Suppose ﬁrst that q(δ) ¯ = a m . Then the output q(δ) ˜ and value v ∗ (δ) satisfy (from

(2.6.8)) ˜ − µ(q(δ)) ˜ = δ µ(a m ) − µ(q(δ)) ˜ µd (q(δ))

(2.6.13)

µd (q(δ)) ˜ = v ∗ (δ),

(2.6.14)

and

17. Abreu (1986) shows that if the optimal carrot-and-stick punishment gives a positive payoff, then it is the only strongly symmetric equilibrium yielding this payoff. If it yields a 0 payoff, there may be other symmetric equilibria yielding the same payoff.

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while subgame perfection requires the incentive constraint ˜ µd (a m ) ≤ µ(a m ) + δ(µ(a m ) − µ(q(δ)). The function h(q) = µd (q) − (1 − δ)µ(q) is convex and differentiable everywhere. From (2.6.13), q(δ) ˜ N h(a ) + h (q)dq = δµ(a m ), aN

and because q(δ) ˜ > a N , h(a N ) = δµ(a N ) implies h (q(δ)) ˜ > 0. It then follows that an increase in δ increases q˜ (to preserve (2.6.13)), thus decreasing v ∗ (from (2.6.14)) and preserving the incentive constraint. In addition, it is immediate that there exists δ < 1 such that q(δ) ¯ = a m .18 As a result, we have established that there ∗ ¯ = a m if and only if δ ≥ δ ∗ , and that the comparative exists δ < 1 such that q(δ) statics in lemma 2.6.2(1) hold on [δ ∗ , 1). Now consider δ < δ ∗ . Here, the carrot-and-stick punishment is characterized by ˜ − µ(q(δ)) ˜ = δ µ(q(δ)) ¯ − µ(q(δ)) ˜ (2.6.15) µd (q(δ)) and ¯ − µ(q(δ)) ¯ = δ µ(q(δ)) ¯ − µ(q(δ)) ˜ , µd (q(δ))

(2.6.16)

with the value of the punishment again given by v ∗ (δ) = µd (q(δ)). ˜ This implies that the outputs q¯ < a N < q˜ must be such that the payoff increment from deviating from the carrot must equal that of deviating from the stick. Now ﬁx δ and its corresponding optimal punishment quantities q(δ), ¯ q(δ) ˜ and payoff v ∗ (δ), and consider δ > δ (but δ < δ ∗ ). We then have ˜ < (1 − δ )µ(q(δ)) ˜ + δ µ(q(δ)). ¯ µd (q(δ)) Because dµd (q)/dq > dµ(q)/dq for q > a N (because the ﬁrst function is convex and the second concave, and the two are tangent at a N ), there exists a value ˜ > a N at which q > q(δ) ¯ µd (q ) = (1 − δ )µ(q ) + δ µ(q(δ)). The carrot-and-stick punishment σ (q(δ), ¯ q ) is thus a subgame-perfect equilibd ∗ rium giving value v = µ (q ) < v (δ), ensuring that v ∗ (δ ) < v ∗ (δ). This in turn ¯ which, from (2.6.15)–(2.6.16), gives q(δ ˜ ) > q(δ). ˜ This ensures that q(δ ¯ ) < q(δ), completes the proof of statement 1. ˜ + δµ(q) ¯ to equal 0, we need µ(q) ˜ < 0 and (as disFor v ∗ = (1 − δ)µ(q) ˜ = 0. For sufﬁciently large cussed just before the statement of the lemma) µd (q) ¯ = a m and (because q(δ) ˜ > a N ) δµ(a m ) − µd (q(δ)) ˜ > δµ(a m ) − δ ≥ δ ∗ , q(δ) ˜ → −∞ as δ → 1 and so eventually q(δ) ˜ > µ(a N ) > 0. From (2.6.13), µ(q(δ)) (1 − c)/(n − 1). ■

18. For δ sufﬁciently close to 1, permanent reversion to the stage-game Nash equilibrium sufﬁces to support a m as a subgame-perfect equilibrium outcome, and hence so must the optimal punishment.

2.7

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61

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

We now consider games in which some of the players are short-lived. There are n long-lived players, numbered 1, . . . , n, and N − n short-lived players numbered n + 1, . . . , N.19 As usual, Ai is the set of player i’s pure stage-game actions, and A ≡ N i=1 Ai the set of pure stage-game action proﬁles. A long-lived player i plays the game in every period and maximizes, as before, the average discounted payoff of the payoff sequence (u0i , u1i , u2i , . . .), given by (1 − δ)

∞

δ t ui (a t ).

t=0

Short-lived players are concerned only with their payoffs in the current period and hence are often referred to as myopic. One interpretation is that in each period, a new collection of short-lived players n + 1, . . . , N enters the game, is active for only that period, and then leaves the game. An example of such a scenario is one in which the long-lived players are ﬁrms and the short-lived players customers. Another example has a single long-lived player, representing a government agency or court, with the short-lived players being a succession of clients or disputants who appear before it. A common interpretation of the product-choice game is that player 2 is a sequence of customers, with a new customer in each period. An alternative interpretation is that each so-called short-lived player represents a continuum of long-lived agents, such as a long-lived ﬁrm facing a competitive market in each period, or a government facing a large electorate in each period. Under this interpretation, members of the continuum are sometimes referred to as small players and the long-lived players as large. Each player’s payoff depends on his own action, the actions of the large players, and the average of the small players’ actions.20 All players maximize the average discounted sum of payoffs. In addition to the plays of the long-lived players, histories of play are assumed to include only the distribution of play produced by the small players. Because each small player is a negligible part of the continuum, a change in the behavior of a member of the continuum does not affect the distribution of play, and so does not inﬂuence future behavior of any (small or large) player. For this reason, players whose individual behavior is unobserved are also called anonymous. As there is no link between current play of a small anonymous player and her future treatment, such a player can do no better than myopically optimize. Remark The anonymity assumption The assumption that small players are anonymous is

2.7.1 critical for the conclusion that small players necessarily myopically optimize. Consider the repeated prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 2.4.1, with player 1 being a large 19. The literature also uses the terms long-run for long-lived, and short-run for short-lived. 20. Under this interpretation of the model described above, if N = n + 1, a small player’s payoff depends only on her own action (in addition to the long-lived players’ actions), not the average of the other small players’ actions. Allowing the payoffs of each small player to also depend on the average of the other players’ actions in this case does not introduce any new issues. We follow the literature in assuming that small players make choices so that the distribution over actions is well deﬁned (i.e., the set of small players choosing any action is assumed measurable). Because we will be concerned with equilibria and with deviations from equilibria on the part of a single player, this will not pose a constraint.

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player and player 2 a continuum of small players. Each of the small players receives the payoff given by the prisoners’ dilemma, given her action and player 1’s action. Player 1’s payoff depends only on the aggregate play of the player 2’s, which is equivalent to the payoff received against a single opponent playing a mixed strategy with probability of E given by the proportion of player 2’s choosing E. If, as described, the distribution of player 2’s actions is public (but individual player 2 actions are private), then all player 2’s myopically optimize, playing S in every period, and so the equilibrium is unique, and in this equilibrium, all players choose S in every period. On the other hand, if all players observe the precise details of every player 2’s choice, then if δ ≥ 1/3, an equilibrium exists in which effort is exerted after every history devoid of shirking, with any instance of shirking triggering a punishment phase of persistent shirking thereafter. It thus takes more than a continuum of players to ensure that the players are anonymous and behavior is myopic. Consider now the same game but with a ﬁnite number of player 2s. Perfect monitoring requires that each player 2’s action be publicly observed and so, for any ﬁnite number of player 2s and δ ≥ 1/3, always exerting effort is an equilibrium outcome. Consequently, there is a potentially troubling discontinuity as we increase the number of player 2s. Suppose δ ≥ 1/3. For a ﬁnite number (no matter how large) of player 2s, always exerting effort is an equilibrium outcome, whereas for a continuum of anonymous player 2s, it is not. Section 7.8 discusses one resolution: If actions are only imperfectly observed, then the behavior of a large but ﬁnite population of player 2s is similar to that of a continuum of anonymous player 2s. ◆ We present the formal development for short-lived players. Restricting attention to pure strategies for the short-lived players, the model can be reinterpreted as one with small anonymous players who play identical pure equilibrium strategies. The usual intertemporal considerations come into play in shaping the behavior of longlived players. As might be expected, the special case of a single long-lived player is often of interest and is the typical example. Again as usual, a period t history is an element of the set H t ≡ At . The set of all t 0 histories is given by H = ∪∞ t=0 H , where H = {∅}. A behavior strategy for player i, i = 1, . . . , n, is a function σi : H → (Ai ). The role of player i, for i = n + 1, . . . , N is ﬁlled by a countable sequence of players, denoted i0 , i1 , . . . A behavior strategy for player it is a function σit : H t → (Ai ). We then let σi = (σi0 , σi1 , σi2 , . . .) denote the sequence of such strategies. We will often simply refer to a short-lived player i, rather than explicitly referring to the sequence of player i’s. Note that each player it observes the history ht ∈ H t . As usual, σ |ht is the continuation strategy proﬁle after the history ht ∈ H . Given a strategy proﬁle σ , Ui (σ ) denotes the long-lived player i’s payoff in the repeated game, that is, the average discounted value of {ui (a t (σ ))}. Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a Nash equilibrium if,

2.7.1

1. for i = 1, . . . , n, σi maximizes Ui (·, σ−i ) over player i’s repeated game strategies, and

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Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

2. for i = n + 1, . . . , N, all t ≥ 0, and all ht ∈ H t that have positive probability under σ , ui (σit (ht ), σ−i (ht )) = max ui (ai , σ−i (ht )). ai ∈Ai

A strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if, for all histories ht ∈ H , σ |ht is a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. The notion of a one-shot deviation for a long-lived player is identical to that discussed in section 2.2 and applies in an obvious manner to short-lived players. Hence, we immediately have a one-shot deviation principle for games with long- and shortlived players (the proof is the same as that for proposition 2.2.1). Proposition The one-shot deviation principle A strategy proﬁle σ is subgame perfect if and

2.7.1 only if there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations. 2.7.1 Minmax Payoffs Because the short-lived players play myopic best replies, given the actions of the longlived players, the short-lived players must play a Nash equilibrium of the induced stage game. Let B : ni=1 (Ai ) ⇒ N i=n+1 (Ai ) be the correspondence that maps any mixed-action proﬁle for the long-lived players to the corresponding set of static Nash equilibria for the short-lived players. The graph of B is denoted by B ⊂ N i=1 Ai , so that B is the set of the proﬁles of mixed actions with the property that, for each player i = n + 1, . . . , N, αi is a best response to α−i . Note that under assumption 2.1.1, for all αLL ∈ ni=1 (Ai ), there exists αSL ∈ N i=n+1 (Ai ) such that (αLL , αSLL ) ∈ B. It will be useful for the notation to cover the case of no short-lived players, in which case, B = ni=1 (Ai ). (If a player has a continuum action space, then that player does not randomize; see remark 2.1.1.) For each of the long-lived players i = 1, . . . , n, deﬁne vi = min max ui (ai , α−i ), α∈B ai ∈Ai

(2.7.1)

and let αˆ i ∈ B be an action proﬁle satisfying αˆ i = arg min max ui (ai , α−i ) . α∈B

ai ∈Ai

The payoff vi , player i’s (mixed-action) minmax payoff with short-lived players, is a lower bound on the payoff that player i can obtain in an equilibrium of the repeated game.21 Notice that this payoff is calculated subject to the constraint that short-lived i minmax player i, subject to the players choose best responses: The strategies αˆ −i i ) ∈ B, that is, constraint that there exists some choice αˆ ii for player i that gives (αˆ ii , αˆ −i that makes the choices of the short-lived players a Nash equilibrium. Lower payoffs for player i might be possible if the short-lived players were not constrained to behave myopically (as when they are long-lived). In particular, reducing i’s payoffs below vi 21. Restricting the long-lived players to pure actions gives player i’s pure-action minmax payoff with short-lived players. We discuss pure-action minmaxing in detail when all players are long-lived and therefore restrict attention to mixed-action minmax when some players are short-lived.

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h

H

2, 3

0, 2

L

3, 0

1, 1

h

H

2, 3

1, 2

L

3, 0

0, 1

Figure 2.7.1 The left game is the product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1.

Player 1’s action L is a best reply to 2’s choice of in the left game, but not in the right.

requires actions on the part of the short-lived players that cannot be best responses or part of a stage-game Nash equilibrium but that long-lived players potentially could be induced to play via the use of appropriate intertemporal incentives. We use the same notation for minmax payoffs and strategies, vi and αˆ i , as for the case in which all players were long-lived, because they are the appropriate generalization in the presence of short-lived players. i . When α ˆ ii is It is noteworthy that αˆ ii need not be a best response for player i to αˆ −i i not a best response, ui (αˆ ) is strictly smaller than vi . Hence, minmaxing player i may require i to incur a cost, in the sense of not playing a best response, to ensure that αˆ i speciﬁes stage-game best responses for the short-lived players.22 If we are to punish player i through the play of αˆ i , player i will have to be subsequently compensated for any costs incurred, introducing a complication not found when all players are long-lived.23 Example Consider the product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1,where player 1 is a long-lived

2.7.1 and player 2 a short-lived player, reproduced as the left game in ﬁgure 2.7.1. Every pure or mixed action for player 2 is a myopic best reply to some player 1 action. Hence, the constraint α ∈ B on the minimization in (2.7.1) imposes no constraints on the action α2 appearing in player 1’s utility function. We have v1 = 1 and αˆ 1 = L, as would be the case with two long-lived players. In addition, L is a best response for player 1 to player 2’s play of . There is then no discrepancy here between player 1’s best response to the player 2 action that minmaxes player 1 and the player 1 action that makes such behavior a best response for player 2. It is also straightforward to verify, as a consequence, that the trigger-strategy proﬁle in which play begins with H h, and remains there until the ﬁrst deviation, after which play is perpetual L, is a subgame-perfect equilibrium for δ ≥ 1/2. Now consider a modiﬁed version of this game, displayed on the right in ﬁgure 2.7.1. Once again, every pure or mixed action for player 2 is a myopic best 22. Formally, given any α ∈ B that solves the minimization in (2.7.1), the subsequent maximization does not impose ai = αi . 23. With long-lived players, we can typically assume that player 1 plays a stage-game best response when being minmaxed, using future play to create the incentives for the other players to do the minmaxing. Here the short-lived players must ﬁnd minmaxing a stage-game best response, potentially requiring player 1 to not play a best response, being induced to do so by incentives created by future play.

2.7

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65

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

h

r

H

2, 3

1, 2

0, 0

L

3, 0

0, 1

−1, 0

Figure 2.7.2 A further modiﬁcation to the product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1.

reply to some player 1 action, implying no constraints on α2 in (2.7.1). We have v1 = 1 with αˆ 1 = L and u1 (αˆ 1 ) = 0. In this case, however, αˆ 1 does not feature a best response for player 1, who would rather choose H . If player 1 is to be minmaxed, 1 will have to choose L to create the appropriate incentives for player 2, and 1 will have to be compensated for doing so. Because L is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, there is no pure-strategy equilibrium in trigger strategies. However, (H h)∞ can still be supported as a subgame-perfect equilibrium-outcome path for δ ≥ 1/2, using a carrot-and-stick approach: The proﬁle speciﬁes H h on the outcome path and after any deviation one period of L, after which play returns to H h; in particular, if player 1 does not play L when required, L is speciﬁed in the subsequent period. The set of equilibrium payoffs for this example is discussed in detail in section 7.6. Consider a further modiﬁcation, displayed in ﬁgure 2.7.2. When player 2 is long-lived, then we have v1 = 0 and αˆ 1 = H r. When player 2 is short-lived, the restriction that player 2 always choose best responses makes action r irrelevant, because it is strictly dominated by . We then again have v1 = 1 and αˆ 1 = L. ●

This example illustrates two features of repeated games with short-lived players. First, converting some players from long-lived to short-lived players imposes restrictions on the payoffs that can be achieved for the remaining long-lived players. In the game of ﬁgure 2.7.2, player 1’s minmax value increases from 0 to 1 when player 2 becomes a short-lived player. Payoffs in the interval (0, 1) are thus possible equilibrium payoffs for player 1 if player 2 is long-lived but not if player 2 is short-lived. As a result, the range of discount factors under which we can support relatively high payoffs for player 1 as equilibrium outcomes may be broader when player 2 is a long-lived rather than short-lived player. As we will see in the next section, the maximum payoff for long-lived players is typically reduced when some players are short-lived rather than long-lived. Second, the presence of short-lived players imposes restrictions on the structure of the equilibrium. To minmax player 1, player 2 must play . To make a best response for player 2, player 1 must put at least probability 1/2 on L, effectively cooperating in the minmaxing. This contrasts with the equilibria that will be constructed in the proof of the folk theorem without short-lived players (proposition 3.4.1), where a player

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being minmaxed is allowed to play her best response to the minmax strategies, and the incentives for the punishing players to do so are created by future play. 2.7.2 Constraints on Payoffs In restricting attention to action proﬁles drawn from the set B, short-lived players impose restrictions on the set of equilibrium payoffs that go beyond the speciﬁcation of minmax payoffs. Example Return to the product-choice game (left game of ﬁgure 2.7.1). Minmax payoffs are

2.7.2 1 for both players, whether player 2 is a long-lived or short-lived player. When player 2 is long-lived, because F ∗ contains (8/3, 1), it follows from proposition 3.3.1 that there are equilibria (for sufﬁciently patient players) with payoffs for player 1 arbitrarily close to 8/3.24 This is impossible, however, when player 2 is short-lived. For player 1 to obtain a payoff close to 8/3, there must be some periods in which the action proﬁle Lh appears with probability at least 2/3. But whether the result of pure independently mixed or correlated actions, this outcome cannot involve a best response for player 2. The largest equilibrium payoff for player 1, even when arbitrarily patient, is bounded away from 8/3. Consider, then, the problem of choosing α ∈ B to maximize player 1’s stagegame payoff. Player 2 is willing to play h as long as the probability that 1 plays H is at least 1/2, and so 1’s payoff is maximized by player 1 mixing equally between H and L and player 2 choosing the myopic best reply of h. The payoff obtained is often called the (mixed-action) Stackelberg payoff, because this is the payoff that player 1 can guarantee himself by publicly committing to his mixed action before player 2 moves.25 However, the mixed-action Stackelberg payoff cannot be achieved in any equilibrium. Indeed, there is no equilibrium of the repeated game in which player 1’s payoff exceeds 2, the pure action Stackelberg payoff, independently of player 1’s discount factor. To see why this is the case, let v¯1 be the largest subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff available to player 1, and assume v¯1 > 2. Any period in which player 2 chooses or player 1 chooses H cannot give player 1 a payoff in excess of 2. If player 1 chooses L, the best response for 2 is , which again gives a payoff short of 2. Informally, there must be some period in which player 2 chooses h with positive probability and player 1 mixes between H and L. Consider the ﬁrst such period, and consider the equilibrium that begins with this period. The payoff for player 1 in this equilibrium must be at least v¯1 , because all previous periods 24. Using Nash reversion as a punishment and an algorithm similar to that in section 2.5.4 to construct an outcome path that switches appropriately between H h and Lh, we can obtain precisely (8/3, 1) as an equilibrium payoff. 25. More precisely, it is the supremum of such payoffs. When player 1 mixes equally between H and L, player 2 has two best replies, only one of which maximizes 1’s payoff. However, by putting ε > 0 higher probability on H , 1 can guarantee that 2 has a unique best reply (see 15.2.2). The pure-action Stackelberg payoff is the payoff that player 1 can guarantee by committing to a public action before player 2 moves (see 15.2.1). It is the subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff of the extensive form where 1 chooses a1 ∈ A1 ﬁrst, and then 2, knowing 1’s choice, chooses a2 ∈ A2 .

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67

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

(if any) must give lower payoffs. However, because player 1 is mixing, he must be indifferent between H and L, and hence the payoff to player 1 when choosing H must be at least as large as v¯1 . On the other hand, because 2 bounds the current period payoff from H and v¯1 bounds the continuation payoff by hypothesis, we have the following upper bound on the payoff from playing H , and hence an upper bound on v¯1 , v¯1 ≤ (1 − δ)2 + δ v¯1 . This inequality implies v¯1 ≤ 2, contradicting our assumption that v¯1 > 2. ●

This result generalizes. Let i be a long-lived player in an arbitrary game, and deﬁne v¯i = sup

min

α∈B ai ∈supp(αi )

ui (ai , α−i ),

(2.7.2)

where supp(αi ) denotes the support of the (possibly mixed) action αi . Hence, we associate with any proﬁle of stage-game actions, the minimum payoff that we can construct by adjusting player i’s behavior within the support of his action. Essentially, we are identifying the least favorable outcome of i’s mixture. We then choose, over the set of proﬁles in which short-lived players choose best responses, the action proﬁle that maximizes this payoff. We have: Proposition Every subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff for player i is less than or equal to v¯i .

2.7.2 Proof The proof is a reformulation of the argument for the product-choice game. Let

vi > v¯i be the largest subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff available to player i and consider an equilibrium σ giving this payoff. Let α 0 be the ﬁrst period action proﬁle. Then,

vi = (1 − δ)ui (α 0 ) + δE σ {U (σ |h1 )} ≤ (1 − δ)v¯i + δvi , where the second inequality follows from the fact that α 0 must lie in B, and player i must be indifferent between all of the pure actions in the support of αi0 if the latter is mixed. We can then rearrange this to give the contradiction, vi ≤ v¯i . ■

As example 2.7.2 demonstrates, the action proﬁle α ∗ = arg maxα∈B ui (α) may require player i to randomize to provide the appropriate incentives for the short-lived players. The upper bound v¯i can then be strictly smaller than ui (α ∗ ). In equilibrium, i must be indifferent over all actions in the support of αi∗ . The payoff from the least lucrative action in this support, given by v¯i , is thus an upper bound on i’s equilibrium payoffs in the repeated game.

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3 The Folk Theorem with Perfect Monitoring

A folk theorem asserts that every feasible and strictly individually rational payoff is the payoff of some subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game, when players are sufﬁciently patient.1 The ideas underlying the folk theorem are best understood by ﬁrst considering the simpler pure-action folk theorem for inﬁnitely repeated games of perfect monitoring: For every pure-action proﬁle whose payoff strictly dominates the pure-action minmax, provided players are sufﬁciently patient, there is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game in which that action proﬁle is played in every period. Because every feasible payoff can be achieved in a single period using a correlated action proﬁle, identical arguments show that the payoff folk theorem holds in the following form:2 Every feasible and strictly pure-action individually rational payoff is the payoff of some equilibrium with public correlation when players are sufﬁciently patient. Although simplifying the argument (and strategy proﬁles) signiﬁcantly, public correlation is not needed for a payoff folk theorem. We have already seen an example for the repeated prisoners’ dilemma in section 2.5.3. As demonstrated there and in section 2.5.4, when players are sufﬁciently patient even payoffs that cannot be written as a rational convex combination of pure-action payoffs are exactly the average payoff of a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium without public correlation, giving a payoff folk theorem without public correlation. Of course, this requires a complicated nonstationary sequence of actions (and the required bound on the discount factor may be higher). As in section 2.5.3, the techniques of self-generation provide an indirect technique for constructing such sequences of actions. Those techniques are critical in proving the folk theorem for ﬁnite games with imperfect public monitoring and immediately yield (proposition 9.3.1) a perfect monitoring payoff folk theorem without public correlation. An alternative more direct approach is described in section 3.7. The notion of individual rationality implicitly used in the last paragraph was relative to the pure-action minmax. The difﬁculty in proving the folk theorem, when individual rationality is deﬁned relative to the mixed-action minmax, is that the imposition of punishments requires the punishing players to randomize (and so be indifferent over all the actions in the minmax proﬁle). Early versions of the folk theorem provided 1. The term folk arose because its earliest versions were part of the informal tradition of the game theory community for some time before appearing in a publication. 2. The ﬁrst folk theorems proved for our setting (subgame-perfect equilibria in discounted repeated games with perfect monitoring; Fudenberg and Maskin 1986) are of this form.

69

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appropriate incentives for randomization by making the unconventional assumption that each player’s choice of probability distribution over his action space was observable (this was referred to as the case of observable mixtures), so that indifference was not required. We never make such an assumption. The techniques of self-generation also allow a simple proof of the payoff folk theorem when individual rationality is deﬁned relative to the mixed-action minmax (again, proposition 9.3.1). An alternative more direct approach is described in section 3.8.

3.1

Examples

We ﬁrst illustrate the folk theorem for the examples presented in chapter 1. Figure 3.1.1 shows the feasible payoff space for the prisoners’ dilemma. The proﬁle of pure and mixed minmax payoffs for this game is (0, 0)—because shirking ensures a payoff of at least 0, no player who chooses best responses can ever receive a payoff less than 0. The folk theorem then asserts (and we have already veriﬁed in section 2.5.3) that for any strictly positive proﬁle in the shaded area of ﬁgure 3.1.1, there is a subgame-perfect equilibrium yielding that payoff proﬁle for sufﬁciently high discount factors. This includes the payoffs (2, 2) that arise from persistent mutual effort, as well as the payoffs very close to (0, 0) (the payoff arising from relentless shirking), and a host of other payoffs, including asymmetric outcomes in which one player gets nearly 0 and the other nearly 8/3. The quantiﬁer on the discount factor in this statement is worth noting. The folk theorem implies that for any candidate (feasible, strictly individually rational) payoff, there exists a sufﬁciently high discount factor to support that payoff as a subgameperfect equilibrium. Equivalently, the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs converges to the set of feasible, strictly individually rational payoffs as the discount factor approaches unity. There may not be a single discount factor for which the entire

u(E, S ) u( E, E )

u(S , S ) u(S , E ) Figure 3.1.1 Feasible payoffs (the polygon and its interior) and folk theorem outcomes (the shaded area, minus its lower boundary) for the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma.

3.1

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71

Examples

u ( H , h)

u ( H , ᐉ)

u ( L, ᐉ) u ( L, h )

Figure 3.1.2 Feasible payoffs (the polygon and its interior) and folk theorem outcomes (the shaded area, minus its lower boundary) for the inﬁnitely repeated product-choice game with two long-run players.

set appears as equilibrium payoffs, though, as we saw in section 2.5.3, this is the case for the prisoners’ dilemma (see remark 3.3.1). Chapter 1 introduced the product-choice game with the interpretation that the role of player 2 is ﬁlled by a sequence of short-lived players. However, let us consider the case in which the game is played by two long-lived players. Figure 3.1.2 illustrates the feasible payoffs. The pure and mixed minmax payoff is 1 for each player, with player 1 or 2 able to ensure a payoff of 1 by choosing L or , respectively. The folk theorem ensures that any payoff proﬁle in the shaded area, except the lower boundary (to ensure strict individual rationality), can be achieved as a subgame-perfect payoff proﬁle for sufﬁciently high discount factors. Once again, the minmax payoff proﬁle (1, 1) corresponds to a stage-game Nash equilibrium and hence is a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff proﬁle, though this is not an implication of the folk theorem. The folk theorem implies that the highest payoff available to player 1 in a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game is (nearly) 8/3, corresponding to an outcome in which player 2 always buys the high-priced choice but player 1 chooses high effort with a probability only slightly exceeding 1/3. The highest available payoff to player 2 in a subgame-perfect equilibrium is 3, produced by an outcome in which player 2 buys the high-priced product and player 2 exerts high effort. For our ﬁnal example, consider the oligopoly game of section 2.6.2. In contrast to our earlier examples, the action spaces are uncountable; unlike the discussion in section 2.6.2, we make the spaces compact (as we do throughout our general development) by restricting actions to the set [0, q], ¯ where q¯ is large. The set of payoffs implied by some pure action proﬁle is illustrated in ﬁgure 3.1.3. The shaded region is F , not its convex hull (in particular, note that all ﬁrms’ proﬁts must have the same sign, which is determined by the sign of the price-cost margin). The stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium, with payoffs ui (a N ) = [(1 − c)/(n + 1)]2 , and minmax payoffs are p vi = vi = 0 (player i chooses ai = 0 in best response to the other players ﬂooding the market, i.e., choosing q). ¯ The folk theorem shows that in fact every feasible payoff

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u2 u (a m ) u2 ( a N )

− qc u1 (a N )

u1

(v1p , v 2p ) Figure 3.1.3 Payoffs implied by some pure-action proﬁle in the two-ﬁrm oligopoly example of section 2.6.2. Stage-game Nash equilibrium payoffs p (given by ui (a N ) = (1 − c)2 /9) and minmax payoffs (vi = 0) are indicated by two dots. The efﬁcient frontier of the payoff set is given by u1 + u2 = (1 − c)2 /4, where (1 − c)2 /4 is the level of monopoly proﬁts. The point u(a m ) is equal division of monopoly proﬁts, obtained by each ﬁrm producing half monopoly output.

in which all ﬁrms earn strictly positive proﬁts can be achieved as a subgame perfect equilibrium outcome.

3.2

Interpreting the Folk Theorem

3.2.1 Implications The folk theorem asserts that “anything can be an equilibrium.” Once we allow repeated play and sufﬁcient patience, we can exclude as candidates for equilibrium payoffs only those that are obviously uninteresting, being either infeasible or offering some player less than his minmax payoff. This result is sometimes viewed as an indictment of the repeated games literature, implying that game theory has no empirical content. The common way of expressing this is that “a theory that predicts everything predicts nothing.” Multiple equilibria are common in settings that range far beyond repeated games. Coordination games, bargaining problems, auctions, Arrow-Debreu economies, mechanism design problems, and signaling games (among many others) are notorious for multiple equilibria. Moreover, a model with a unique equilibrium would be quite useless for many purposes. Behavioral conventions differ across societies and cities, ﬁrms, and families. Only a theory with multiple equilibria can capture this richness. If there is a problem with repeated games, it cannot be that there are multiple equilibria but that there are “too many” multiple equilibria. This indictment is unconvincing on three counts. First, a theory need not make precise predictions to be useful. Even when the folk theorem applies, the game-theoretic

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73

Interpreting the Folk Theorem

study of long-run relationships deepens our understanding of the incentives for opportunistic behavior and the institutional responses that might discourage such behavior. Repeated games help us understand why we might see asymmetric and nonstationary behavior in stationary symmetric settings, why some noisy signals may be more valuable than other seemingly just as noisy ones, why efﬁciency might hinge on the ability to punish some players while rewarding others, and why seemingly irrelevant details of an interaction may have tremendous effects on behavior. Without such an understanding, a useful model of behavior is beyond our grasp. Second, we are often interested in cases in which the conditions for the folk theorem fail. The players may be insufﬁciently patient, the monitoring technology may be insufﬁciently informative, or some of the players may be short-lived (see section 2.7). There is much to be learned from studying the set of equilibrium payoffs in such cases. The techniques developed in chapters 7 and 8 allow us to characterize equilibrium payoffs when the folk theorem holds and when it fails. Third, the folk theorem places bounds on payoffs but says nothing about behavior. The strategy proﬁles used in proving folk theorems are chosen for analytical ease, not for any putative positive content, and make no claims to be descriptions of what players are likely to do. Instead, the repeated game is a model of an underlying strategic interaction. Choosing an equilibrium is an integral part of the modeling process. Depending on the nature of the interaction, one might be interested in equilibria that are efﬁcient or satisfy the stronger efﬁciency notion of renegotiation proofness (section 4.6), that make use of only certain types of (perhaps “payoff relevant”) information (section 5.6), that are in some sense simple (remark 2.3.1), or that have some other properties. One of the great challenges facing repeated games is that the conceptual foundations of such equilibrium selection criteria are not well understood. Whether the folk theorem holds or fails, it is (only) the point of departure for the study of behavior.

3.2.2 Patient Players There are two distinct approaches to capturing the idea that players are patient. Like much of the work inspired by economic applications, we consider players who discount payoff streams, with discount factors close to 1. Another approach is to consider preferences over the inﬁnite stream of payoffs that directly capture patience. Indeed, the folk theorem imposing perfection was ﬁrst proved for such preferences, by Aumann and Shapley (1976) for the limit-of-means preference LM and by Rubinstein (1977, 1979a) for the limit-of-means and overtaking preferences O , where3 {uti } LM {uˆ ti } ⇔ lim inf T →∞

T uti − uˆ ti >0 T t=0

and {uti } O {uˆ ti } ⇔ lim inf T →∞

T

uti − uˆ ti > 0.

t=0

3. Because there is no guarantee that the inﬁnite sum is well deﬁned, the lim inf is used.

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See Osborne and Rubinstein (1994) for an insightful discussion of these preferences and the associated folk theorems. Because a player who evaluates payoffs using limitof-means is indifferent between two payoff streams that only differ in a ﬁnite number of periods, the perfection requirement is easy to satisfy in that case. Consider, for example, the following proﬁle in the repeated oligopoly of section 2.6.2: The candidate outcome ˜ . . . , q) ˜ for L periods is (a m , . . . , a m ) in every period; if a player deviates, then play (q, (ignoring deviations during these L periods), and return to (a m , . . . , a m ) (until the next deviation from (a m , . . . , a m )), where L satisﬁes4 µd (a m ) + Lµ(q) ˜ < (L + 1)µ(a m ). This proﬁle is a Nash equilibrium under limit-of-means and overtaking (as well as for discounting, if δ is sufﬁciently close to 1). Moreover, under limit-of-means, because the punishment is only imposed for a ﬁnite number of periods, it is costless to impose, and so the proﬁle is perfect. Overtaking is a more discriminating preference order than limit-of-means. In particular, a player who evaluates payoffs using overtaking strictly prefers the stream u0i , u1i , u2i , . . . to the stream u0i − 1, u1i , u2i , . . . Consequently, though perfection is not a signiﬁcant constraint with limit-of-means, it is with overtaking. In particular, the proﬁle just described is not perfect with the overtaking criterion. A perfect equilibrium for overtaking requires sequences of increasingly severe punishments: Because minmaxing player i for L periods may require player j to suffer signiﬁcantly in those L periods, the threatened punishment of j , if j does not punish i, may need to be signiﬁcantly longer than the original punishment. And providing for that punishment may require even longer punishments. Both overtaking and limit-of-means preferences suffer from two shortcomings: They are incomplete (not all payoff streams are comparable) and they do not respect mixtures, because lim inf is not a linear operator. Much of the more recent mathematical literature in repeated games has instead used Banach limits, which do respect mixtures and yield complete preferences.5 The tradition in economics has been to work with discounted payoffs, whereas the more mathematical literature is inclined to work with limit payoffs that directly capture patience. One motivation for the latter is the observation that many of the most powerful results in game theory—most notably the various folk theorems—are statements about patient players. If this is one’s interest, then one might as well replace the technicalities involved in taking limits with the convenience of limit payoffs. If one 4. Recall that µ(q) is the stage-game payoff when all ﬁrms produce the same output q, and µd (q) is the payoff to a ﬁrm from myopically optimizing when all the other ﬁrms produce q. 5. Let ∞ denote the set of bounded sequences of real numbers (the set of possible payoff streams). A Banach limit is a linear function : ∞ → R satisfying, for all u = {ut } ∈ ∞ , lim inf ut ≤ (u) ≤ lim sup ut t→∞

t→∞

and displaying patience, in the sense that, if u and v are elements of ∞ with v t = ut+1 for t = 0, . . . , then (u) = (v).

3.2

■

Interpreting the Folk Theorem

75

knows what happens with limit payoffs, then it seems that one knows what happens with arbitrarily patient players. Many results in repeated games are indeed established for arbitrarily patient players, and patience often makes arguments easier. However, we are also often interested in what can be accomplished for ﬁxed discount factors, discounting that may not be arbitrarily close to 1. In addition, although it is generally accepted that limit payoff results are a good guide to results for players with high discount factors, the details of this relationship are not completely known. We conﬁne our attention to the case of discounting. 3.2.3 Patience and Incentives The fundamental idea behind work in repeated games is the trade-off between current and future incentives. This balance appears most starkly in the criterion for an action to be enforceable (sections 2.5 and 7.3), which focuses attention on total payoffs as a convex combination of current and future payoffs. The folk theorems are variations on the theme that there is considerable latitude for the current behavior that might appear in an equilibrium if the future is sufﬁciently important. The common approach to enhancing the impact of future incentives concentrates on making players more patient, increasing the weight on future payoffs. For example, player 1 can potentially be induced to choose high effort in the product-choice game if and only if the future consequences of this action are sufﬁciently important. This increased patience can be interpreted as either a change in preferences or as a shortening of the length of a period of play. This latter interpretation arises as follows: If players discount time continuously at rate r and a period is of length > 0, then the effective discount factor is δ = e−r . In this latter interpretation, is a parameter describing the environment in which the repeated game is embedded, and the effective discount factor δ goes to 1 as the length of the period goes to 0.6 For perfect-monitoring repeated games, the preferred interpretation is one of taste, because the model does not distinguish between patience and short period length. However, as we discuss in section 9.8, this is not true with public monitoring. An alternative approach to enhancing the importance of future incentives is to ﬁx the discount factor and reduce the impact on current payoffs from different current actions. For example, we could reformulate the product-choice game as one in which player 1’s payoff difference between high and low effort is given by a value c > 0 (taken to be 1 in our usual formulation) that reﬂects the cost of high effort. We could then examine the consequences for repeated-game payoffs of allowing c to shrink, for a ﬁxed discount factor. As c gets small, so does the temptation to defect from an equilibrium prescription of high effort, making it likely that the incentives created by continuation payoffs will be powerful enough to induce high effort. 6. The latter interpretation is particularly popular in the bargaining literature (beginning with Rubinstein 1982). The fundamental insight in that literature is that the division of the surplus reﬂects the relative impatience of the two bargainers. At the same time, the absolute impatience of a bargainer arises from the delay imposed by the bargaining technology should a proposed agreement be rejected. On the strength of the intuition that in practice there is virtually nothing preventing parties from very rapidly making offers and counteroffers, interest has focused on the case in which bargainers become arbitrarily patient (while preserving relative rates of impatience).

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These two approaches reﬂect different ways of organizing the collection of repeated games. The common approach ﬁxes a stage game and then constructs a collection of repeated games corresponding to different discount factors. One then asks which of the games in this collection allow certain equilibrium outcomes, such as high effort in the product-choice game. The folk theorem tells us that patience is a virtue in this quest. Alternatively, we could ﬁx a discount factor and look at the collection of repeated games induced by a collection of stage games, such as the collection of product-choice games parameterized by the cost of high effort c. We could then again ask which of the games in this collection allow high effort. In this case, being relatively amenable to high effort (having a low value of c) will be a virtue. Our development of repeated games in parts I–III follows the standard approach of focusing on the discount factor. We return to this distinction in chapter 15, where we ﬁnd a ﬁrst indication that focusing on families of stage games for a ﬁxed discount factor may be of interest, and then in chapter 18, where this approach will play an important role. 3.2.4 Observable Mixtures Many early treatments of the folk theorem assumed players’ mixed strategies are observable and that public correlating devices are available. We are interested in cases with public correlation, as well as those without. However, we follow the now standard practice of assuming that mixed strategies are not observable. The set of equilibrium payoffs for arbitrarily patient players is unaffected by the presence of a public correlating device or an assumption that mixed strategies are observable. However, public correlation may have implications for the strategies that produce these payoffs, potentially allowing an equilibrium payoff to be supported by the repeated play of a single correlated mixture rather than a possibly more complicated sequence of pure action proﬁles. Similarly, if players’ mixtures themselves (rather than simply their realized actions) were observable, then we could design punishments using mixed minmax action proﬁles without having to compensate players for their lack of indifference over the actions in the support of these mixtures. In addition, we have seen in sections 2.5.3 and 2.5.6 that public correlation may allow us to attain a particular equilibrium payoff with a smaller discount factor. Observable mixtures can also have this effect.

3.3

The Pure-Action Folk Theorem for Two Players

The simplest nontrivial subgame-perfect equilibria in repeated games use Nash reversion as a threat. Any deviation from equilibrium play is met with permanent reversion to a static Nash equilibrium (automatically ensuring that the punishments are credible, see remark 2.6.1).7 Because of their simplicity, such Nash-reversion equilibria are commonly studied, especially in applications. In the prisoners’ dilemma or the product-choice game, the study of Nash-reversion equilibria could be the end of the 7. The seminal work of Friedman (1971) followed this approach.

3.3

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The Folk Theorem for Two Players

77

story. In each game, there is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game whose payoffs coincide with the minmax payoffs. Nash reversion is then the most severe punishment available, in the sense that any outcome that can be supported by any subgame-perfect equilibrium can be supported by Nash-reversion strategies. As the oligopoly game makes clear, however, not all games have this property. Nash reversion is not the most severe punishment in such games, and the set of Nash-reversion equilibria excludes some equilibrium outcomes. Recall from lemma 2.1.1 that the payoff in any pure-strategy Nash equilibrium canp i ). not be less than the pure-action minmax, vi = mina−i maxai ui (ai , a−i ) ≡ ui (aˆ ii , aˆ −i The folk theorem for two players uses the threat of mutual minmaxing to deter deviaˆ It is worth noting that player i’s tions. Denote the mutual minmax proﬁle (aˆ 12 , aˆ 21 ) by a. p payoff from the mutual minmax proﬁle may be strictly less than vi , that is, carrying out the punishment may be costly. Accordingly, the proﬁle must provide sufﬁcient incentives to carry out any punishments necessary, and so is reminiscent of the proﬁle in example 2.7.1. Proposition Two-player folk theorem with perfect monitoring Suppose n = 2.

3.3.1

1. For all strictly pure-action individually rational action proﬁles a, ˜ that is, p ˜ > vi for all i, there is a δ ∈ (0, 1) such that for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), there ui (a) exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated game with discount factor δ in which a˜ is played in every period. 2. For all v ∈ F †p , there is a δ ∈ (0, 1) such that for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium, with payoff v, of the inﬁnitely repeated game with public correlation and discount factor δ.

Remark The order of quantiﬁers in the proposition is important, with the bound on the

3.3.1 discount factor depending on the action proﬁle. Only when A is ﬁnite and there is no public correlation is it necessarily true there is a single discount factor δ for which every strictly pure-action individually rational action proﬁle is played in every period in some subgame-perfect equilibrium. Similarly, there need be no single discount factor for which every payoff v ∈ F †p can be achieved as an equilibrium payoff in the game with public correlation. The folk theorem result in section 2.5.3 for the prisoners’ dilemma is the stronger uniform result, because a single discount factor sufﬁces for all payoffs in F †p . The following two properties of the prisoners’ dilemma sufﬁce for the result: (1) The pure-action minmax strategy proﬁle is a Nash equilibrium of the p stage game; and (2) for any action proﬁle a and player i satisfying ui (a) < vi , if p ai is a best reply for i to a−i , then ui (ai , a−i ) ≤ vi . Because the set of equilibrium payoffs is compact, this uniformity also implies that all weakly individually rational payoffs are equilibrium payoffs for large δ. Figure 3.3.1 presents a game for which such a uniform result does not hold. Each player has a minmax value of 0. Consider the payoff (1/2, 0), which maximizes player 1’s payoff subject to the constraint that player 2 receive at least her minmax payoff. Any outcome path generating this payoff must consist exclusively of the action proﬁles TL and TR. There is no equilibrium, for any δ < 1, yielding such an outcome path. If TR appears in the ﬁrst period, then 2’s equilibrium payoff is

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The Folk Theorem

L

R

T

0, −1

1, 1

B

−1, −1

−1, 0

Figure 3.3.1 A game in which some weakly individually rational payoff proﬁles cannot be obtained as equilibrium payoffs, for any δ < 1.

at least (1 − δ) + δ × 0 > 0, because 2 can be assured of at least her minmax payoff in the future. If TL appears in the ﬁrst period, a deviation by player 2 to R again ensures a positive payoff. ◆ p

Proof Statement 1. Fix an action proﬁle a˜ satisfying ui (a) ˜ > vi for all i, and (as usual)

let M = maxi,a∈A ui (a), so that M is the largest payoff available to any player i in the stage game. The desired proﬁle is the simple strategy proﬁle (deﬁnition 2.6.1) given by σ (a(0), a(1), a(2)), where a(0) is the constant outcome path in which a˜ is played in every period, and a(i), i = 1, 2, is the common punishment outcome path of L periods of mutual minmax aˆ followed by a return to a˜ in every period (where L is to be determined). The strategy proﬁle is described by the automaton with states W = {w() : = 0, . . . , L}, initial state w0 = w(0), output function f (w()) =

a, ˜

if = 0,

a, ˆ

if = 1, . . . , L,

and transition rule if = 0 and a = a, ˜ or = L and a = a, ˆ w(0), τ (w(), a) = w( + 1), if 0 < < L and a = a, ˆ w(1), otherwise. p

Because ui (a) ˆ ≤ vi < ui (a), ˜ there exists L > 0 such that L mini (ui (a) ˜ − ui (a)) ˆ > M − mini ui (a). ˜

(3.3.1)

If L satisﬁes (3.3.1), then a sufﬁciently patient player i strictly prefers L + 1 ˜ to deviating, receiving at most M in the current period and then periods of ui (a) ˆ enduring L periods of ui (a).

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The Folk Theorem for Two Players

We now argue that for sufﬁciently large δ, ui (a) ˜ ≥ (1 − δ)M + δvi∗ ,

(3.3.2)

where ˆ + δ L ui (a). ˜ vi∗ = (1 − δ L )ui (a) The left side of (3.3.2) is the repeated-game payoff from the equilibrium path of a˜ in every period. The right side of (3.3.2) is an upper bound on player i’s payoff from deviating from the equilibrium. The deviation entails an immediate bonus, which is bounded above by M and then, beginning in the next period and hence discounted by δ, a “punishment phase” whose payoff is given by vi∗ . Note that p there is a δ ∗ such that for all i and δ > δ ∗ , vi∗ > vi . Substituting for vi∗ in (3.3.2) and rearranging gives ˜ ≥ (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )ui (a), ˆ (1 − δ L+1 )ui (a) and dividing by (1 − δ) yields L t=0

δ t ui (a) ˜ ≥M +δ

L−1

δ t ui (a). ˆ

t=0

If (3.3.1) holds, there is a δ ≥ δ ∗ such that the above inequality holds for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) and all i. It remains to be veriﬁed that no player has a proﬁtable one-shot deviation from the punishment phase when δ ∈ (δ, 1). This may be less apparent, as it may be costly to minmax the opponent. However, if any deviation from the punishment phase is proﬁtable, it is proﬁtable to do so in w(1), because the payoff of the punishment phase is lowest in the ﬁrst period and every deviation induces the same path of subsequent play. Following the proﬁle in w(1) gives a payoff of p vi∗ , whereas a deviation yields a current payoff of at most vi < vi∗ (because each player is being minmaxed) with a continuation of vi∗ , and hence strictly suboptimal. Statement 2. Let α be the correlated proﬁle achieving payoff v. The second state-

ment is proved in the same manner as the ﬁrst, once we have described the automaton. Recall (from remark 2.3.3) that the automaton representing a pure strategy proﬁle in the game with public correlation is given by (W , µ0 , f, τ ), where µ0 ∈ (W ) is the distribution over initial states and τ : W × A → (W ). The required automaton is a modiﬁcation of the automaton from part 1 of the proof, where the state w(0) is replaced by {w a : a ∈ A} (a collection of states, one for each pure-action proﬁle) and the initial state is replaced by µ0 , a randomization according to α over {wa : a ∈ A}. Finally, f (w a ) = a, and for states w a , the transition rule is α, if a = a, a τ (w , a ) = w(1), otherwise,

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The Folk Theorem

where α is interpreted as the probability distribution over {w a : a ∈ A} assigning probability α(a) to w a . ■

In some games, it is a stage-game Nash equilibrium for each player to choose the action that minmaxes the other player. In this case, Nash-reversion punishments are the most severe possible, and there is no need to consider more intricate punishments. The prisoners’dilemma has this property, again making it a particularly easy game with which to work, though also making it rather special. In other games, mutual minmaxing behavior is not a stage-game Nash equilibrium, with it instead being quite costly to minmax another player. Mutual minmaxing is then a valuable tool, because it provides more severe punishments than Nash reversion, but now we must provide incentives for the players to carry out such a punishment. This gives rise to the temporary period of minmaxing used when constructing the equilibria needed to prove the folk theorem. The minmaxing behavior is sufﬁciently costly to deter deviations from the original equilibrium path, whereas the temporary nature of the punishment and the prospect of a return to the equilibrium path creates the incentives to adhere to the punishment should it ever begin.

3.4

The Folk Theorem with More than Two Players

3.4.1 A Counterexample The proof of the two-player folk theorem involved strategies in which the punishment phase called for the two players to simultaneously minmax one another. This allowed the punishments needed to sustain equilibrium play to be simply constructed. When there are more than two players, there may exist no combination of strategies that simultaneously minmax all players, precluding an approach that generalizes the twoplayer proof. We illustrate with an example taken from Fudenberg and Maskin (1986, example 3). The three-player stage game is given in ﬁgure 3.4.1. In this game, player 1 chooses rows, player 2 chooses columns, and player 3 chooses matrices. Each player’s pure (and mixed) minmax payoff is 0. For example, if player 2 chooses the second column and player 3 the ﬁrst matrix, then player 1 receives a payoff of at most 0. However, there is no combination of actions that simultaneously minmaxes all of the players. For any pure proﬁle a with u(a) = (0, 0, 0), there is a player with a deviation that yields that player a payoff of 1. This ensures that the proof given for the two-player folk theorem does not immediately carry over to the case of more players but leaves the possibility that the result itself generalizes. However, this is not the case. To see this, let v ∗ be the minimum payoff attainable in any subgame-perfect equilibrium, for any player and any discount factor, in this three-player game. Given the symmetry of the game, if one player achieves a given payoff, then all do, obviating the need to consider player-speciﬁc minimum payoffs. We seek a lower bound on v ∗ and will show that this lower bound is at least 1/4, for every discount factor.

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81

More than Two Players

r

T

1, 1, 1

0, 0, 0

B

0, 0, 0

0, 0, 0

r

T

0, 0, 0

0, 0, 0

B

0, 0, 0

1, 1, 1

L

R

Figure 3.4.1 A three-player game in which players cannot be simultaneously

minmaxed.

The ﬁrst thing to note is that given any speciﬁcation of stage-game actions, there is at least one player who, conditional on the actions of the other two players, can achieve a payoff of 1/4 in the stage game. In particular, let αi (1) be the probability attached to the ﬁrst action (i.e., ﬁrst row, column, or matrix) for player i. Then for any speciﬁcation of stage game actions, there must be one player i for whom either αj (1) ≥ 1/2 and αk (1) ≥ 1/2 or (1 − αj (1)) ≥ 1/2 and (1 − αk (1)) ≥ 1/2. In the former case, playing the ﬁrst action gives player i a payoff at least 1/4, whereas in the second case playing the second action does so. Now ﬁx a discount factor δ and an equilibrium, and let player i be the one who, given the ﬁrst-period actions of his competitors, can choose an action giving a payoff at least 1/4 in the ﬁrst period. Then doing so ensures player i a repeated-game payoff of at least (1 − δ) 14 + δv ∗ . If the putative equilibrium is indeed an equilibrium, then it must give an equilibrium payoff at least as high as the payoff (1 − δ) 14 + δv ∗ that player i can obtain. Because this must be true of every equilibrium, the lower bound v ∗ on equilibrium payoffs must also satisfy this inequality, or v ∗ ≥ (1 − δ) 14 + δv ∗ , which we solve for v ∗ ≥ 14 . The folk theorem fails in this case because there are feasible strictly individually rational payoff vectors, namely, those giving some player a payoff in the interval (0, 1/4), that cannot be obtained as the result of any subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game, for any discount factor. It may appear as if not much is lost by the inability to achieve payoffs less than 1/4, because we rarely think of a player striving to achieve low payoffs. However, we could embed this game in a larger one, where it serves as a punishment designed to create incentives not to deviate from an equilibrium path. The inability to secure payoffs lower than 1/4 may then limit the ability to achieve relatively lucrative equilibrium payoffs.

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The Folk Theorem

3.4.2 Player-Specific Punishments The source of difﬁculty in the previous example is that the payoffs of the players are perfectly aligned, so that it is impossible to increase or decrease one player’s payoff without doing so to all other players. In this section, we show that a folk theorem holds when we have the freedom to tailor rewards and punishments to players. Definition A payoff v ∈ F ∗ allows player-speciﬁc punishment if there exists a collection

3.4.1 {v i }ni=1 of payoff proﬁles, v i ∈ F ∗ , such that for all i, vi > vii , and, for all j = i,

j

vi > vii . The collection {v i }ni=1 constitutes a player-speciﬁc punishment for v. If {v i }ni=1 constitutes a player-speciﬁc punishment for v and v i ∈ F , then {v i }ni=1 constitute pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments for v. Hence, we can deﬁne n payoff proﬁles, one proﬁle v i for each player i, with the property that player i fares worst (and fares worse than the candidate equilibrium payoff ) under proﬁle v i . This is the type of construction that is impossible in the preceding example. Recall that p

p

F p ≡ {v ∈ F : vi > vi } = {u(a) : ui (a) > vi , a ∈ A} is the set of payoffs in F †p achievable in pure actions. The existence of pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments for a payoff v ∈ F p or F †p turns out to be sufﬁcient for v to be a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. Proposition 1. Suppose v ∈ F p allows pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments in F p . There

3.4.1

exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v. 2. Suppose v ∈ F †p allows player-speciﬁc punishments in F †p . There exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v of the repeated game with public correlation.

Before proving this proposition, we discuss its implications. Given proposition 3.4.1, obtaining a folk theorem reduces to obtaining conditions under which all feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs allow pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments. For continuum action spaces, F p may well have a nonempty interior, as it does in our oligopoly example. If a payoff vector v is in the interior of F p , we can vary one player’s payoff without moving others’ payoffs in lock-step. Beginning with a payoff v, we can then use variations on a payoff v < v to construct player speciﬁc punishments for v. This provides the sufﬁcient condition that we combine with proposition 3.4.1 to obtain a folk theorem. For ﬁnite games, there is no hope for F p being convex (except the trivial case of a game with a single payoff proﬁle) or having a nonempty interior. One can only assume directly that F p allows player-speciﬁc punishment. However, the set F †p is necessarily convex. The full dimensionality of F †p then provides a sufﬁcient condition for a folk theorem with public correlation.

3.4

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More than Two Players

83

Proposition Pure-minmax perfect monitoring folk theorem

3.4.2

1. Suppose F p is convex and has nonempty interior. Then, for every payoff v in {v˜ ∈ F p : ∃v ∈ F p , vi < v˜i ∀i}, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v. 2. Suppose F †p has nonempty interior. Then, for every payoff v in {v˜ ∈ F †p : ∃v ∈ F †p , vi < v˜i ∀i}, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame perfect equilibrium, with payoffs v, of the repeated game with public correlation.

The set {v˜ ∈ F p : ∃v ∈ F p , vi < v˜i ∀i} equals F p except for its lower boundary. When a set is convex, the condition that it have nonempty interior is equivalent to that of the set having full dimension.8 The assumption that F †p have full dimension is Fudenberg and Maskin’s (1986) full-dimensionality condition.9 Proof of Proposition 3.4.2 We only prove the ﬁrst statement, because the second is proved

mutatis mutandis. Fix v ∈ {v˜ ∈ F p : ∃v ∈ F p , vi < v˜i ∀i}. Because F p is convex and has nonempty interior, there exists v ∈ intF p satisfying vi < vi for √ all i.10 Fix ε > 0 sufﬁciently small that the nε-ball centered at v is contained in intF p . For each player i, let a i denote the proﬁle of stage-game actions that achieves the payoff proﬁle (v1 + ε, . . . , vi−1 + ε, vi , vi+1 + ε, . . . , vn + ε).

By construction, the proﬁles a 1 , . . . , a n generate player-speciﬁc punishments. Now apply proposition 3.4.1. ■

Remark

Dispensability of public correlation The statement of this proposition and the

3.4.1 preceding discussion may give the impression that public correlation plays an indispensable role in the folk theorem for ﬁnite games. Although it simpliﬁes the constructive proof, it is unnecessary. Section 3.7 shows that the perfect monitoring folk theorem (proposition 3.4.2(2)) holds as stated without public correlation. Section 3.8 continues by showing that the proposition also holds (without public correlation) when F †p is replaced by F ∗ , and hence pure minmax utilities replaced by (potentially lower) mixed minmax utilities. ◆ We now turn to the proof of proposition 3.4.1. The argument begins as in the twoplayer case, assuming that players choose a stage-game action proﬁle a ∈ A giving payoff v. A deviation by player i causes the other players to minmax i for a sufﬁciently long period of time as to render the deviation suboptimal. Now, however, it is not obvious that the remaining players will ﬁnd it in their interest to execute this punishment. In the two-player case, the argument that punishments would be optimally executed depended on the fact that the punishing players were themselves being minmaxed. This 8. The dimension of a convex set is the maximum number of linearly independent vectors in the set. 9. Though not usual, it is possible that F †p includes part of its lower boundary. For example, the payoff vector (1/2, 1/2, 1) in the game of ﬁgure 3.4.2 is in F †p and lies on its lower boundary. 10. The interior of a set A is denoted int A .

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L

R

T

1, 1, 1

2, 2, 0

B

2, 0, 2

1, 0, 1

L

R

T

0, 2, 2

1, 1, 0

B

0, 1, 1

2, 2, 2 r

Figure 3.4.2 Impossibility of mutual minmax when player-speciﬁc punishments are possible.

imposed a bound on how much a player could gain by deviating from a punishment that allowed us to ensure that such deviations would be suboptimal. However, the assumption that v allows player-speciﬁc punishments does not ensure that mutual minmaxing is possible when there are more than two players. For example, consider the stage game in ﬁgure 3.4.2, where player 1 chooses rows, player 2 chooses columns, and player 3 matrices. The strictly individually rational payoff proﬁle (1, 1, 1), though not a Nash equilibrium payoff of the stage game, does allow player-speciﬁc punishments (in which v i gives player i a payoff of 0 and a payoff of 2 to the other players). It is, however, impossible to simultaneously minmax all of the players. Instead, minmaxing player 1 requires strategies (·, L, r), minmaxing 2 requires (B, ·, ), and minmaxing 3 requires (T , R, ·). As a result, we must ﬁnd an alternative device to ensure that punishments will be optimally executed. The incentives to do so are created by providing the punishing players with a bonus on the completion of the punishment phase. The second condition for player-speciﬁc punishments ensures that it is possible to do so. Proof of Proposition 3.4.1 Statement 1. Let a 0 be a proﬁle of pure stage-game actions

that achieves payoff v and a 1 , . . . , a n a collection of action proﬁles providing player-speciﬁc punishments. The desired proﬁle is the simple strategy proﬁle (deﬁnition 2.6.1), σ (a(0), a(1), . . . , a(n)), where a(0) is the constant outcome path in which a 0 is played in every period, and a(i), i = 1, . . . , n, is i’s punishment outcome path of L periods of aˆ i followed by a i in every period (where L is to be determined and aˆ i is the proﬁle that minmaxes player i). Under this proﬁle, the stage-game action proﬁle a 0 is played in the ﬁrst period and in every subsequent period as long as it has always been played. If agent i deviates from this behavior, then the proﬁle calls for i to be minmaxed for L periods, followed by perpetual play of a i . Should any player j (including i himself) deviate from either of these latter two prescriptions, then the equilibrium calls for the play of aˆ j for L periods, followed by perpetual play of a j , and so on.11 An automaton for this proﬁle has the set of states W = {w(d) : 0 ≤ d ≤ n} ∪ {w(i, t) : 1 ≤ i ≤ n, 0 ≤ t ≤ L − 1},

11. In each case, simultaneous deviations by two or more players are ignored.

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85

More than Two Players

initial state w 0 = w(0), output function f (w(d)) = a d and f (w(i, t)) = aˆ i , and transition rule τ (w(d), a) =

d , w(j, 0), if aj = ajd , a−j = a−j

otherwise,

w(d),

and τ (w(i, t), a) =

w(j, 0),

i , if aj = aˆ ji , a−j = aˆ −j

w(i, t + 1), otherwise,

where w(i, L) ≡ w(i). We apply proposition 2.4.1 to show that the proﬁle is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. The values in the different states are: V (w(d)) = u(a d ), and V (w(i, t)) = (1 − δ L−t )u(aˆ i ) + δ L−t V (w(i)) = (1 − δ L−t )u(aˆ i ) + δ L−t u(a i ). We begin by verifying optimality in states w = w(d). The one-shot game of proposition 2.4.1 has payoff function g (a) = w

d , (1 − δ)u(a) + δV (w(j, 0)), if aj = ajd , a−j = a−j

(1 − δ)u(a) + δu(a d ),

otherwise.

Setting M ≡ maxi,a ui (a), the action proﬁle a d is a Nash equilibrium of g w if, for all j uj (a d ) ≥ (1 − δ)M + δVj (w(j, 0)) p

= (1 − δ)M + δ[(1 − δ L )vj + δ L uj (a j )]. The left side of this inequality is the payoff from remaining in state wd , whereas the right side is an upper bound on the value of a deviation followed by the accompanying punishment. This constraint can be rewritten as p (1 − δ) M − uj (a d ) ≤ δ(1 − δ L ) uj (a d ) − vj + δ L+1 (uj (a d ) − uj (a j )).

(3.4.1)

As δ → 1, the left side converges to 0, and for d = j , the right side is strictly positive and bounded away from 0. Suppose d = j . Then the inequality can be rewritten as

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The Folk Theorem

M − uj (a j ) ≤

δ(1 − δ L ) p (uj (a j ) − vj ). (1 − δ)

Because δ(1 − δ L ) = lim δ δ t = L, lim δ→1 (1 − δ) δ→1 L−1 t=0

we can choose L sufﬁciently large that p

M − uj (a j ) < L(uj (a j ) − vj ) for all j . Consequently, for δ sufﬁciently close to 1, a d is a Nash equilibrium of g w for w = w(d). We now verify optimality in states w = w(i, t). The one-shot game of proposition 2.4.1 in this case has payoff function g (a) = w

i , if aj = aˆ ji , a−j = aˆ −j

(1 − δ)u(a) + δV (w(j, 0)),

(1 − δ)u(a) + δV (w(i, t + 1)), otherwise.

A sufﬁcient condition for aˆ i to be a Nash equilibrium of g w is that for all j , Vj (w(i, t)) ≥ (1 − δ)M + δVj (w(j, 0)), that is, p

(1 − δ L−t )uj (aˆ i ) + δ L−t uj (a i ) ≥ (1 − δ)M + δ[(1 − δ L )vj + δ L uj (a j )]. (3.4.2) Rearranging, (1 − δ)uj (aˆ i ) + δ(1 − δ L−t−1 )uj (aˆ i ) + δ L−t (1 − δ t+1 )uj (a i ) + δ L+1 uj (a i ) p

p

≥ (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L−t−1 )vj + δ L−t (1 − δ t+1 )vj + δ L+1 uj (a j ), or p δ L+1 uj (a i ) − uj (a j ) ≥ (1 − δ)(M − uj (aˆ i )) + δ(1 − δ L−t−1 )(vj − uj (aˆ i )) p

+ δ L−t (1 − δ t+1 )(vj − uj (a i )). Because L is ﬁxed, this last inequality is clearly satisﬁed for δ close to 1. Statement 2. Let α 0 be the correlated proﬁle that achieves payoff v, and α 1 , . . . , α n

a collection of correlated action proﬁles providing player-speciﬁc punishments. The second statement is proved in the same manner as the ﬁrst, with the correlated action proﬁles α d replacing the pure action proﬁles a d . We need only describe the automaton. Recall (from remark 2.3.3) that the automaton representing a pure

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87

Non-Equivalent Utilities

strategy proﬁle in the game with public correlation is given by (W , µ0 , f, τ ), where µ0 ∈ (W ) is the distribution over initial states and τ : W × A → (W ). The set of states is W = (A × {0, 1, . . . , n}) ∪ {w(i, t) : 1 ≤ i ≤ n, 0 ≤ t ≤ L − 1}, the distribution over initial states is given by µ0 ((a, 0)) = α 0 (a), and the output function is f ((a, d)) = a and f (w(i, t)) = aˆ i . For states w(i, t), t < L − 1, the transition is deterministic and given by the transition rule τ (w(i, t), a) =

i , if aj = aˆ ji , a−j = aˆ −j

w(j, 0),

w(i, t + 1), otherwise.

For states w(i, L − 1) the transition is stochastic, reﬂecting the correlated playerspeciﬁc punishments α i : τ (w(i, L − 1), a) =

w(j, 0),

i , if aj = aˆ ji , a−j = aˆ −j

(α i , i),

otherwise,

where (α i , i) is interpreted as the probability distribution over A × {i} assigning probability α i (a) to (a, i). Finally, for states (a, d), the transition is also stochastic, reﬂecting the correlated actions α d :

τ ((a, d), a ) =

=a , w(j, 0), if aj = aj , a−j −j

(α d , d),

otherwise,

where (α d , d) is interpreted as the probability distribution over A × {d} assigning probability α d (a) to (a, d). ■

3.5

Non-Equivalent Utilities

The game presented in section 3.4.1, in which the folk theorem does not hold, has the property that the three players always receive identical utilities. As a result, one can never reward or punish one player without similarly rewarding or punishing all players. The sufﬁcient condition in proposition 3.4.2 is that the set F p be convex and have a nonempty interior. In the interior of this set, adjusting one player’s payoff has no implications for how the payoffs of the other players might vary. How much stronger is the sufﬁcient condition than the conditions necessary for the folk theorem? Abreu, Dutta, and Smith (1994) show that it sufﬁces for the existence of player-speciﬁc punishments (and so the folk theorem) that no two players have identical preferences over action proﬁles in the stage game. Recognizing that the payoffs in a game are measured in terms of utilities and that afﬁne transformations of utility functions preserve preferences, they offer the following formulation.

88

Chapter 3

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The Folk Theorem

Definition The stage game satisﬁes NEU (nonequivalent utilities) if there are no two players i

3.5.1 and j and constants c and d > 0 such that ui (a) = c + duj (a) for all pure action proﬁles a ∈ A. Notice that a nontrivial symmetric game, in which players have the same utility function, need not violate the NEU condition. In a two-player symmetric game, u1 (x, y) = u2 (y, x), whereas a violation of NEU requires u1 (x, y) = u2 (x, y) for all x and y. Proposition If the stage game satisﬁes NEU, then every v ∈ F †p allows player-speciﬁc pun-

3.5.1 ishments in F †p . Moreover, every v ∈ F ∗ allows player-speciﬁc punishments in F ∗ .

Proof If F †p is nonempty, no player can be indifferent over all action proﬁles in A,

and we will proceed under that assumption. For j = i, denote the projection of † † F † onto the ij -coordinate plane by Fij , and its dimension by dimFij . Clearly, †

dimFij ≤ 2. Because F † is convex and no player is indifferent over all action †

proﬁles, dimFij ≥ 1 for all i = j . †

†

Claim 3.5.1. For all players i, either dimFik = 2 for all k = i, or dimFij = 1 †

for some j = i and dimFik = 2 for all k = i, j . †

†

Proof. Suppose dimFij = dimFik = 1 for some j = i and k = i, j . NEU

implies that players i and j have payoffs that are perfectly negatively related, as do players i and k. But this implies that j and k have equivalent payoffs, violating NEU. Claim 3.5.2. There exist n payoff proﬁles {v˜ 1 , . . . , v˜ n } ⊂ F † with the property

that for every pair of distinct players i and j , j

v˜ii < v˜i . Note this is the second condition of player-speciﬁc punishments, and there is no assertion that these payoff proﬁles are strictly or weakly individually rational. †

Proof. If dimFij = 1 for some i and j , then i and j ’s payoffs are perfectly neg-

atively related. Consequently, by the ﬁrst claim, for each pair of players j and jk kj k, there exist some feasible payoff vectors v j k and v kj such that vj > vj and kj

jk

vk > vk . Let {θh : h = 1, . . . , n(n − 1)} be a collection of weights satisfying θh > θh+1 > 0 and h θh = 1. For each player i, order the n(n − 1) payoff jk vectors v j k in increasing size according to vi (break ties arbitrarily), and let v h (i) be the hth vector in the order. Deﬁne θh v h (i). v˜ i = h

From convexity, v˜ i ∈ F † . The construction of the vectors v h (i) ensures that for i = j , we have h≤h vih (i) ≤ h≤h vih (j ) for all h and strict inequality for at least one h . Therefore,

3.5

0>

■

n(n−1)−1

(θ − θ h

h +1

)

h =1

=

89

Non-Equivalent Utilities h

vih (i) − vih (j )

h=1

n(n−1)−1

θh vih (i) − vih (j ) + −

θh +1

h =1 n(n−1)−1

h

−1 h

vih (i) − vih (j )

h=1

n(n−1) vih (i) − vih (j ) + θn(n−1) vih (i) − vih (j )

h=1

h=1

θh vih (i) − vih (j ) − θn(n−1)

n(n−1)−1

h vi (i) − vih (j )

h=1

+ θn(n−1) =

vih (i) − vih (j )

h =1

θh

h =2 n(n−1)−1

h=1 n(n−1)−1

h =1

=

+ θn(n−1)

n(n−1)

n(n−1)

vih (i) − vih (j )

h=1

θh vih (i) − vih (j )

j

= v˜ii − v˜i ,

h

and {v˜ i }i is the desired collection of payoffs.

It only remains to use the payoff vectors from this claim to construct playerspeciﬁc punishments, for any v ∈ F †p . Let w i ∈ F † be a feasible payoff vector minimizing i’s payoff (because F † is compact, the payoff w i solves min{vi : v ∈ F † }). Fix v ∈ F †p and consider the collection of payoff vectors {v i }i , where v i = ε(1 − η)w i + ηε v˜ i + (1 − ε)v (the constants η > 0 and ε > 0 are independent of i and to be determined). From j j convexity, v i ∈ F † . For any η > 0 and ε > 0, vii − vi = ε(1 − η) wii − wi + j p p ηε v˜ii − v˜i < 0.12 For sufﬁciently small ε, because vj > vj , we have vji > vj and so v i ∈ F †p . Finally, for ﬁxed ε, because wii < vi , for sufﬁciently small η, vii < vi , and {v i }i is a player-speciﬁc punishment for v. The second statement follows from the observation that for v ∈ F ∗ , vj > vj and so v i ∈ F ∗ . ■

Using proposition 3.4.1, proposition 3.5.1 allows us to improve on proposition 3.4.2 in two ways. It weakens the full-dimensionality condition to NEU and includes any part of the lower boundary of F p in the set of payoffs covered (see note 9 on page 83).

j

12. NEU is important here, since there is no guarantee that wii < wi . We could not use u(aˆ i ) in place of wi , because as we have argued, minmaxing player i may be very costly for j .

90

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

L

R

T

0, −1

1, 0

B

0, −1

2, 1

Figure 3.5.1 A game with minimal attainable payoffs that are strictly individually rational.

Corollary

3.5.1

Pure-minmax perfect monitoring folk theorem NEU

1. Suppose F p is convex and the stage game satisﬁes NEU. Then, for every payoff v in F p , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v. 2. Suppose the stage game satisﬁes NEU. Then, for every payoff v in F †p , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium, with payoffs v, of the repeated game with public correlation.

Could an even weaker condition sufﬁce? Abreu, Dutta, and Smith (1994) note that Benoit and Krishna (1985) offer a ﬁnite-horizon example that can be adapted to inﬁnite-horizon games in which two out of three players have identical payoffs and the folk theorem fails. Hence, it appears unlikely that we can ﬁnd a much weaker sufﬁcient condition than NEU. Indeed, Abreu, Dutta, and Smith show that the NEU condition is very nearly necessary for the folk theorem. Deﬁne for each player i the payoff fi = min{vi |v ∈ F , vj ≥ vj , j = 1, . . . , n}. Hence, fi is i’s minimal attainable payoff, the worst payoff that can be achieved for player i while restricting attention to payoff vectors that are (weakly) individually rational. If there is a stage-game action proﬁle that gives every player their minmax payoff, as in the prisoners’ dilemma, then fi = vi for all i. Even in the absence of such a proﬁle, every player’s minimal attainable payoff may be the minmax value, as long as for each player i there is some proﬁle yielding the minmax payoff for i without forcing other players below their minmax value. However, it is possible that fi is strictly higher than the minmax payoff. For example, consider the game in ﬁgure 3.5.1. Then the minmax value for each of players 1 and 2 is 0. However, f1 = 1 (while f2 = 0), because the lowest payoff available to player 1 that is contained in a payoff vector with only nonnegative elements is 1.13 Abreu, Dutta, and Smith (1994) then establish the following results. If for every mixed action proﬁle α there is at most one player i whose best response to α gives a payoff no higher than fi , then the NEU condition is necessary (as well as sufﬁcient) for the folk theorem to hold. Notice that one circumstance in which there exists a strategy proﬁle α to which every player i’s best response to α gives a payoff no larger than fi is 13. Minmaxing player 1 requires player 2 to endure a negative payoff.

3.6

■

91

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

that in which all players can be simultaneously minmaxed, as in two-player games. It is then no surprise that the folk theorem holds for such games without requiring NEU.14

3.6

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

This section presents a direct characterization of the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs of the game with one patient long-lived player and one or more short-lived players. We defer the general perfect-monitoring characterization result for games with long-lived and short-lived players to proposition 9.3.2. From section 2.7.2, the presence of short-lived players imposes constraints on long-lived players’ payoffs. Accordingly, there is no folk theorem in this case. Because there is only one long-lived player, the convexiﬁcation we earlier obtained by public correlation is easily replaced by nonstationary sequences of outcomes.15 As we will see in section 3.7, this is true in general but signiﬁcantly complicated by the presence of multiple long-lived players. The argument in this section is also of interest because it presages critical features of the argument in section 3.8 dealing with mixed-action individual rationality. For later reference, we ﬁrst describe the set of feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs for n long-lived players. The payoff of a long-lived player i must be drawn from the interval [vi , v¯i ], where (recalling (2.7.1) and (2.7.2)), vi = min max ui (ai , α−i )

(3.6.1)

v¯i = max

(3.6.2)

α∈B ai ∈Ai

and min

α∈B ai ∈supp(αi )

ui (ai , α−i ).

Deﬁne F ≡ {v ∈ Rn : ∃α ∈ B s.t. vi = ui (α), i = 1, . . . , n}, F † ≡ co(F ), and F ∗ ≡ {v ∈ F † : vi > vi , i = 1, . . . , n}. We have thus deﬁned the set of stage-game payoffs F , its convex hull F † , and the subset of these payoffs that are strictly individually rational, all for n long-lived players. These differ from their counterparts for a game with only long-lived players in the restriction to best-response behavior for the short-lived players. As has been our custom, we do not introduce new notation to denote these sets of payoffs, trusting the context to keep things clear. 14. Wen (1994) characterizes the set of equilibrium payoffs for games that fail NEU. 15. Unsurprisingly, public correlation allows a simpler argument; see Fudenberg, Kreps, and Maskin (1990). The argument presented here is also based on Fudenberg, Kreps, and Maskin (1990).

92

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

L

C

R

T

1, 3

0, 0

6, 2

B

0, 0

2, 3

6, 2

Figure 3.6.1 The game for example 3.6.1.

We have deﬁned F as the set of stage-game payoffs produced by proﬁles of mixed actions. When working with long-lived players, our ﬁrst step was to deﬁne F as the set of pure-action stage-game payoffs. Why the difference? When working only with long-lived players, all of the extreme points of the set of stage-game payoffs produced by pure or mixed actions correspond to pure action proﬁles. It then makes no difference whether we begin by examining pure or mixed stage-game proﬁles, as the two sets yield the same convex hull F † . When some players are short-lived, this equivalence no longer holds. The restriction to stage-game payoffs produced by proﬁles in the set B raises the possibility that some of the extreme points of the set of stage-game payoffs may be produced by mixtures. It is thus important to deﬁne F in terms of mixed action proﬁles. Example 3.6.1 illustrates. Example Consider the stage game in ﬁgure 3.6.1. The pure action proﬁles in the set B are

3.6.1 (T , L) and (B, C). Denote a mixed action for player 1 by α1T , the probability attached to T . Then the set B includes

(α1T , L) : α1T ≥

2 3

∪ (α1T , R) :

1 3

≤ α1T ≤

2 3

∪ (α1T , C) : α1T ≤ 13 .

Hence, v1 = 1 and v¯1 = 6. If we had deﬁned F as the set of payoffs produced by pure action proﬁles in B, we would have F = {1, 2} and F † = F ∗ = [1, 2], concluding that the set of equilibrium payoffs for player 1 in the repeated game is [1, 2]. Allowing F to include mixed action proﬁles gives F ⊃ [2/3, 1] ∪ [4/3, 2] ∪ {6}. For any v1 ∈ [1, 6], there is then an equilibrium of the repeated game, for sufﬁciently patient player 1, with a player 1 payoff of v1 .16 ●

Proposition Suppose there is one long-lived player, and v1 < v¯1 . For every v1 ∈ (v1 , v¯1 ], there

3.6.1 exists δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game with value v1 .

Proof Let α be a stage-game Nash equilibrium with payoff v1 for player 1 (this equi-

librium is pure if the stage game has continuum action spaces for all players). Note that v1 ∈ [v1 , v¯1 ]. Repeating the stage-game Nash equilibrium immediately gives a repeated-game payoff of v1 . We separately consider payoffs below and 16. Proposition 3.6.1 ensures only that we can obtain payoffs in the interval (1, 6]. In this case, the lower endpoint corresponds to a stage-game Nash equilibrium and hence is easily obtained as an equilibrium payoff in the repeated game.

3.6

■

93

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

above v1 . Because we always require α ∈ B, the short-lived players’ incentive constraints are always satisﬁed. Case 1. v1 ∈ (v1 , v¯1 ].

Let α¯ ∈ B be a stage-game action proﬁle that solves the maximization problem in (3.6.2) (and hence u1 (a1 , α¯ −1 ) ≥ v¯1 for all a1 ∈ supp α¯ 1 ).17 Suppose the discount factor is sufﬁciently large that the following inequality holds: (1 − δ)(M − v1 ) ≤ δ(v1 − v1 ),

(3.6.3)

where M is the largest stage-game payoff. The idea behind the equilibrium strategies is to reward player 1 with the relatively large payoff from α¯ when a discounted average of the payoffs he has so far received are “behind schedule,” and to punish player 1 with the low payoff v1 when it is “ahead of schedule.” To do this, we recursively deﬁne a set of histories H˜ t , a measure of the running total of player 1 expected payoffs ζ t (ht ), and the equilibrium strategy proﬁle σ . We begin with H˜ 0 = {∅} and ζ 0 = 0. Given H˜ t and ζ t (ht ), the strategy proﬁle in period t is given by α , if ζ t (ht ) ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ) and ht ∈ H˜ t , or if ht ∈ H˜ t , t σ (h ) = α, ¯ if ζ t (ht ) < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v ) and ht ∈ H˜ t . 1

The next period set of histories is H˜ t+1 = ht+1 ∈ H t+1 : ht ∈ H˜ t and a t ∈ supp σ (ht ) , and the updated running total is ζ t+1 (ht+1 ) = ζ t (ht ) + (1 − δ)δ t u1 a1t , σ−1 (ht ) − v1 . Note that on H˜ t , σ and ζ t only depend on the history of player 1 actions. Hence, other than the speciﬁcation of Nash reversion after an observable deviation by the short-lived players, the actions of the short-lived players do not affect ζ t . Because ζ t (ht ) = (1 − δ)

t−1

δ τ u1 (a1τ , σ−1 (hτ )) − (1 − δ t )v1 ,

τ =0

ζ t (ht ) would equal (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) if player 1 expected to received a payoff of precisely v1 in each of periods 0, . . . , t − 1 under σ−1 and his realized behavior. As a result, ζ t (ht ) > (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) implies that player 1 is ahead of schedule on ht in terms of accumulating a “notional” repeated game payoff of v1 , whereas ζ t (ht ) < (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) indicates that player 1 is behind schedule.18 It is 17. Note that when A−1 is ﬁnite, α¯ −1 may be mixed. The short-lived players play a Nash equilibrium of the stage game induced by 1’s behavior. This stage game need not have a pure strategy Nash equilibrium (unless there is only one short-lived player). 18. The term (1 − δ t+1 ) cannot be replaced by (1 − δ t ) in the speciﬁcation of σ . Under that speciﬁcation, the ﬁrst action proﬁle is α for all v1 ∈ (v1 , v¯1 ]. It may then be impossible to achieve v1 for v1 close to v¯1 .

94

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

important to remember in the following argument that for histories ht in which the short-lived players do not follow σ−1 , player 1’s actual accumulated payoff does not equal (1 − δ t )v1 + ζ (ht ). On the other hand, for any strategy for player 1, σ˜ 1 , player 1’s payoffs from the proﬁle (σ˜ 1 , σ−1 ) is U1 (σ˜ 1 , σ−1 ) = v1 + E limt→∞ ζ t (ht ) ≡ v1 + Eζ ∞ (h),

(3.6.4)

where expectations are taken over the outcomes h ∈ A∞ . We ﬁrst argue that ζ t (ht ) < v1 − v1 for all ht ∈ H t . The proof is by induction. We have ζ 0 = 0 < v1 − v1 . For the induction step, assume ζ t < v1 − v1 and consider ζ t+1 . We break this into two cases. If ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ) or ) − v ) ≤ ζ t < v − v . If ht ∈ H˜ t , then ζ t+1 = ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (u1 (a1t , α−1 1 1 1 t t+1 t t t+1 ˜ ≤ ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (M − v1 ) < ζ < (1 − δ )(v1 − v1 ) and h ∈ H , then ζ (1−δ t+1 )(v1 −v1 )+δ t+1 (v1 −v1 ) = v1 −v1 , where the ﬁnal inequality uses (3.6.3). We now argue thatif player 1 does not observably deviate from σ1 (i.e., for all a1t ∈ supp σ1 ht , t = 0, . . . , t − 1) then ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ). We again proceed via an induction argument, beginning with the observation that ζ 0 = 0 = (1 − δ 0 )(v1 − v1 ), as required. Now suppose ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) and consider ζ t+1 . If ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then ζ t+1 = ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), the desired result. If ζ t < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then ζ t+1 = ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (u1 (a1t , α¯ 2 ) − v1 ) ≥ ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (v¯1 − v1 ) ≥ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) + (1 − δ)δ t (v1 − v1 ) = (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), as required, where the ﬁrst inequality notes that α¯ is played when ζ t < (1−δ t+1 )× (v1 − v1 ) and applies (3.6.2), the next inequality uses the induction hypothesis that ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ), and the ﬁnal equality collects terms. Hence, if in every period t, player 1 plays any action in the support of σ1 (ht ), then limt→∞ ζ t (ht ) = v1 − v1 , and so from (3.6.4) player 1 is indifferent over all such strategies, and the payoff is v1 . Because play reverts to the stage-game Nash equilibrium α after an observable deviation, to complete the argument that the proﬁle is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, it sufﬁces to argue that after a history ht ∈ H˜ t , player 1 does not have an incentive to choose an action a1 ∈ supp σ1 (ht ). That is, it sufﬁces to argue that the proﬁle is Nash. But the expected value of v1 + limt→∞ ζ (ht ) gives the period 0 value for any strategy of player 1 against σ−1 , and we have already argued that lim supt→∞ ζ t (ht ) ≤ v1 − v1 . Case 2. v1 ∈ (v1 , v1 ).

This case is similar to case 1, though permanent Nash reversion can no longer be easily used to punish observable deviations because the payoff from the stagegame Nash equilibrium is more attractive than the target, v1 . Let αˆ solve (3.6.1) (and hence u1 (a1 , αˆ −1 ) ≤ v1 for all a1 ). Choose δ sufﬁciently large that δ(v1 − v1 ) < (1 − δ)(m − v1 ), where m is the smallest stage-game payoff.

(3.6.5)

3.6

■

Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players

95

The strategies we deﬁne will only depend on the history of player 1 actions, and so the measure of the running total of player 1 expected payoffs ζ t will also depend only on the history of player 1 actions. For any history ht ∈ H t , ht1 ∈ At1 denotes the history of player 1 actions. We begin with H˜ 0 = {∅} and ζ 0 = 0. The equilibrium strategy proﬁle σ is deﬁned as follows. Set ζ 0 = 0, and given ζ t (ht1 ), the strategy proﬁle in period t is given by σ (h ) = t

α , α, ˆ

if ζ t (ht1 ) < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), if ζ t (ht1 ) ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ).

Because period t behavior under σ depends only on the history of player 1 actions, we write σ (ht1 ) rather than σ (ht ). The updated running total is given by t t t t t ζ t+1 (ht+1 1 ) = ζ (h1 ) + (1 − δ)δ u1 (a1 , σ−1 (h1 )) − v1 . Again, only the actions of the long-lived player affect ζ t . We ﬁrst argue that ζ t (ht1 ) ≤ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) < 0 for t ≥ 1 for all ht1 ∈ At1 . 0 = α ˆ −1 , ensuring ζ 1 ≤ To do this, we ﬁrst note that ζ 0 = 0 and hence α−1 (1 − δ)(v1 − v1 ) < (1 − δ)(v1 − v1 ). We then proceed via induction. Suppose ζ t ≤ (1−δ t )(v1 −v1 ). If ζ t < (1−δ t+1 )(v1 −v1 ), then ζ t+1 ≤ ζ t < (1−δ t+1 )(v1 −v1 ). t =α ˆ −1 , and hence Suppose instead that ζ t ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ). Then α−1 ζ t+1 ≤ ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (v1 − v1 ) ≤ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ) + (1 − δ)δ t (v1 − v1 ) = (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), where the second inequality uses the induction hypothesis. We now argue that for any history ht , if ζ t (ht1 ) ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then for all a1 ∈ A1 , ζ t+1 (ht1 a1 ) ≥ ζ t + (1 − δ)δ t (m − v1 ) > (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ) + δ t+1 (v1 − v1 ) = v1 − v1 , where the strict inequality uses (3.6.5). Finally, for any history ht , if v1 − v1 < ζ t (ht1 ) < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ) and player 1 chooses an action a1t ∈ supp σ1 (ht ), then ζ t+1 (ht1 a1t ) = ζ t (ht1 ) > (v1 − v1 ). Consider now a history ht1 satisfying ζ t (ht1 ) > v1 − v1 (note that ζ 0 is one such history). If player 1 chooses a1t ∈ supp σ1 (ht ), for all t ≥ t, then ζ t (ht1 ) > v1 −v1 for all t ≥ t. Because ζ t (ht1 ) ≤ (1−δ t )(v1 −v1 ) for all ht1 , we then have that on any outcome h ∈ A∞ in which ζ t (ht1 ) > v1 − v1 for some t and for all t ≥ t, player 1 does not observably deviate, ζ ∞ (h1 ) ≡ limt→∞ ζ t (ht1 ) = v1 −v1 . We now apply the one-shot deviation principle (proposition 2.7.1) to complete the argument that the proﬁle is an equilibrium. Fix an arbitrary history ht and associated ζ t (ht1 ). We ﬁrst eliminate a straightforward case. If ζ t (ht1 ) ≤ v1 − v1 ,

96

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

then σ (ht ) = α and so ζ t+1 (ht1 a1 ) ≤ ζ t (ht1 ) ≤ v1 − v1 for all a1 . Consequently, at such a history, α is speciﬁed in every subsequent period independent of history, and sequential rationality is trivially satisﬁed. Suppose then ζ t (ht1 ) > v1 − v1 . Consider an action a1 for which ζ t+1 (ht1 a1 ) > v1 − v1 .

(3.6.6)

Then, [ζ t (ht1 ) + (1 − δ t )v1 ] + δ t [(1 − δ)u1 (a1 , αˆ −1 ) + δ Uˆ 1 (ht1 a1 )] = v1 ,

(3.6.7)

where Uˆ 1 (ht1 a1 ) is the expected continuation from following σ after the history ht a1 (this follows from v1 − v1 < ζ t (ht ) ≤ (1 − δ t )(v1 − v1 ), where ht is a continuation of ht a1 and 1 follows σ1 after ht a1t ). This implies that the payoff from a one-shot deviation at ht , (1 − δ)u1 (a1 , αˆ −1 ) + δ Uˆ 1 (ht1 a1 ), is independent of a1 satisfying (3.6.6), and player 1 is indifferent over all such a1 . ˆ and all a1 satisfy (3.6.6). On If ζ t (ht1 ) ≥ (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then σ (ht ) = α, the other hand, if ζ t (ht1 ) < (1 − δ t+1 )(v1 − v1 ), then σ (ht ) = α , and there is a possibility that for some action a1 , (3.6.6) fails. That is, ζ t (ht1 ) + (1 − δ)δ t (u1 (a1 , α−1 ) − v1 ) ≤ v1 − v1 .

(3.6.8)

The history (ht1 a1 ) is the straightforward case above, so that Uˆ 1 (ht1 a1 ) = v1 and ) + δv . Equation (3.6.7) the continuation payoff from a1 is (1 − δ)u1 (a1 , α−1 1 t t holds for a1 ∈ supp σ1 (h ), and so ζ t (ht1 ) + (1 − δ t )v1 + δ t (1 − δ)v1 + δ t+1 Uˆ 1 = v1 .

(3.6.9)

Using (3.6.9) to eliminate ζ t (ht1 ) in (3.6.8) and rearranging yields (1 − δ)δ t u1 (a1 , α−1 ) + δ t+1 v1 ≤ (1 − δ)δ t v1 + δ t+1 Uˆ 1 ,

and so the deviation to a1 is unproﬁtable. ■

3.7

Convexifying the Equilibrium Payoff Set Without Public Correlation

Section 3.4 established a folk theorem using public correlation for payoffs in the set F †p rather than F p . This expansion of the payoff set is important because the former is more likely to satisfy the sufﬁcient condition for player-speciﬁc punishments embedded in proposition 3.4.2, namely, that the set of payoffs has a nonempty interior. This is most obviously the case for ﬁnite games, where F p necessarily has an empty interior.

3.7

■

97

Convexifying the Equilibrium Payoff Set

In this section, we establish a folk theorem for payoffs in F †p as in proposition 3.4.2, but without public correlation. We have already seen two examples. Section 3.6 illustrates how nonstationary sequences of outcomes can precisely duplicate the convexiﬁcation of public correlation for the case of one long-lived player. Example 2.5.3 shows that when players are sufﬁciently patient, even payoffs that cannot be written as a rational convex combination of pure-action payoffs can be exactly the average payoff of a pure-strategy subgame perfect equilibrium, without public correlation. This ability to achieve exact payoffs will be important in the next section, when we consider mixed minmax payoffs. It is an implication of the analysis in chapter 9 (in particular, proposition 9.3.1) that this is true in general (for ﬁnite games), and so the payoff folk theorem holds without public correlation. This section and the next (on punishing using mixed-action minmax) gives an independent treatment of this result. The results achieved using these techniques are slightly stronger than that of proposition 9.3.1 because they include the efﬁcient frontier of F ∗ and cover continuum action spaces. We ﬁrst follow Sorin (1986) in arguing that for any payoff vector v in F † , there is a sequence of pure actions whose average payoffs is precisely v. For ease of future reference, we state the result in terms of payoffs. Lemma Suppose v ∈ Rn is a convex combination of {v(1), v(2), . . . , v(θ )}. Then, for all t 3.7.1 δ ∈ (1 − 1/θ, 1), there exists a sequence {v t }∞ t=0 , v ∈ {v(1), v(2), . . . , v(θ )}, such that ∞ δt vt . v = (1 − δ) t=0

Proof By hypothesis, there exist θ nonnegative numbers λ1 , . . . , λθ with

such that v=

θ

θ

k=1 λ

k

=1

λk v(k).

k=1

Now we recursively construct a payoff path {v t }∞ t=0 whose average payoff is v as follows. The ﬁrst payoff proﬁle is v 0 = v(k), where k is an index for which λk is maximized. Now, suppose we have determined (v 0 , . . . , v t−1 ), the ﬁrst t periods of the payoff path. Let I τ (k) be the indicator function for the τ th element in the sequence: 1 if v τ = v(k), τ I (k) = 0 otherwise, and let N t (k) count the discounted occurrences of proﬁle v(k) in the ﬁrst t periods, N t (k) =

t−1 (1 − δ)δ τ I τ (k), τ =0

with N 0 (k) ≡ 0. Set v t = v(k ), where k = arg max{λk − N t (k)}, k=1,...,θ

(3.7.1)

98

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The Folk Theorem

■

breaking ties arbitrarily. Intuitively, maxk=1,...,θ {λk − N t (k)} identiﬁes the proﬁle that is currently “most underrepresented” in the sequence, and the trick is to choose that proﬁle to be the next element. We now argue that as long as δ > 1 − 1/θ , the resulting sequence generates precisely the payoffs v. Because ∞ θ θ ∞ (1 − δ)δ t v t = (1 − δ)δ t I t (k)v(k) = lim N t (k)v(k), t→∞

t=0

k=1 t=0

k=1

we need only show that limt→∞ N t (k) = λk foreach k. A sufﬁcient condition for this equality is that for all k and all t, N t (k) ≤ λk because limt→∞ θk=1 N t (k) = θ 1 = k=1 λk . We prove N t (k) ≤ λk by induction. Let k(t) denote the k for which v t = v(k). Consider t = 0. There must be at least one proﬁle k for which λk ≥ 1/θ and hence λk > 1 − δ (from the lower bound on δ), ensuring N 1 (k(0))(= 1 − δ) ≤ λk(0) . For all values k = k(0), we trivially have N 1 (k) = 0 ≤ λk . Suppose now t > 0 and N τ (k) ≤ λk for all τ < t and all k. We have t N (k(t − 1)) = N t−1 (k(t − 1)) + (1 − δ)δ t−1 and N t (k) = N t−1 (k) for k = k(t − 1). From the deﬁnitions, we have k

λk −

k

N t−1 (k) = 1 −

N t−1 (k) = 1 − (1 − δ)

k

t−2

δ τ = δ t−1 .

τ =0

Thus δ t−1 /θ ≤ maxk {λk − N t−1 (k)}. Hence (from (3.7.1)) N t (k(t − 1)) = N t−1 (k(t − 1)) + (1 − δ)δ t−1 ≤ N t−1 (k(t − 1)) + (1 − δ)θ [λk(t−1) − N t−1 (k(t − 1))], or N t (k(t − 1)) ≤ [1 − θ (1 − δ)]N t−1 (k(t − 1)) + θ (1 − δ)λk(t−1) . Because 0 < θ (1 − δ) < 1 and N t−1 (k(t − 1)) ≤ λk(t−1) , we have N t (k(t − 1)) ≤ λk(t−1) . Hence N t (k) ≤ λk for all k (because, for k = k(t − 1), the values N t (k) remain unchanged at N t−1 (k) ≤ λk [by the induction hypothesis]). ■

We can thus construct deterministic sequences of action proﬁles that hit any target payoffs in F † exactly. However, dispensing with public correlation by inserting these sequences as continuation outcome paths wherever needed in the folk theorem strategies does not yet give us an equilibrium. The difﬁculty is that some of the continuation values generated by these sequences may fail to be even weakly individually rational. Hence, although the sequences may generate the required initial average payoffs, they may also generate irresistible temptations to deviate as they are played.

3.7

■

99

Convexifying the Equilibrium Payoff Set

The key to resolving this difﬁculty is provided by the following, due to Fudenberg and Maskin (1991). Lemma For all ε > 0, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) and all v ∈ F † , there

3.7.2 exists a sequence of pure action proﬁles whose discounted average payoffs are v and whose continuation payoffs at any time t are within ε of v. Proof Fix ε > 0 and v ∈ F † . Set ε = ε/5, and let Bε (v) be the open ball of radius ε

centered at v, relative to F † .19 Finally, let v 1 , . . . , v θ be payoff proﬁles with the properties that 1. Bε (v) is a subset of the interior of the convex hull of {v 1 , . . . , v θ }; 2. v ∈ B2ε (v), = 1, . . . , θ; and 3. each v is a rational convex combination of the same K pure-action payoff proﬁles u(a(1)), . . . , u(a(K)), with some proﬁles possibly receiving zero weight. The proﬁle v is a rational convex combination of u(a(1)), . . . , u(a(K)) if there are nonnegative rationals, summing to unity, λ (1), . . . , λ (K) with v = K k=1 λ (k)u(a(k)). Because these are rationals, we can express each λ (k) as the ratio of integers r (k)/d, where d does not depend on . Associate with each v the cycle of d action proﬁles

(a(1), . . . , a(1), a(2), . . . , a(2), . . . , a(K), . . . , a(K)). r (1)

r (2)

times

r (K)

times

(3.7.2)

times

Let v (δ) be the average payoff of this sequence, that is, 1−δ v (δ) = 1 − δd

1 − δ r (1) 1 − δ r (2) u(a(1)) + δ r (1) u(a(2)) 1−δ 1−δ +··· + δ

d−r (K) 1 − δ

r (K)

1−δ

u(a(K)) .

Because limδ→1 (1 − δ r (k) )/(1 − δ d ) = r (k)/d, limδ→1 v (δ) = v . Hence, because Bε (v) is in the interior of the convex hull of the v , for sufﬁciently large δ, Bε (v) is a subset of the convex hull of {v 1 (δ), . . . , v θ (δ)}. Moreover, again for sufﬁciently large δ, v (δ) ∈ B3ε (v). Let δ be the implied lower bound on δ. Let δ > δ satisfy (δ )d > 1 − 1/θ. From lemma 3.7.1, if δ > δ , for τ 1 θ each v ∈ Bε (v), there is a sequence {v τ }∞ τ =0 , with v ∈ {v (δ), . . . , v (δ)}, d whose average discounted value using the discount factor δ is exactly v . We now construct another sequence by replacing each v τ = v (δ) in the original sequence with its corresponding cycle, given in (3.7.2). The average 19. Note that we are not assuming F † has nonempty interior (the full-dimension assumption).

100

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The Folk Theorem

discounted value of the resulting outcome path {a(kt )} using the discount factor δ is precisely v : (τ ) ∞ ∞ (1 − δ)δ dτ 1 − δ r (1) t d (1 − δ) u(a(1)) δ u(a(kt )) = (1 − δ ) 1 − δd 1−δ τ =0

t=0

(τ )

+ δr

(τ ) (1)

1 − δ r (2) u(a(2)) 1−δ (τ )

+ · · · + δ d−r = (1 − δ d )

∞

(τ ) (K)

1 − δ r (K) u(a(K)) 1−δ

δ dτ v τ = v .

τ =0

At the beginning of each period 0, d, 2d, 3d, . . . , the continuation payoff must lie in B3ε (v), because the continuation is a convex combination of v (δ)’s, each of which lies in B3ε (v). An upper bound on the distance that the continuation can be from v is then |u(a) − u(a )| + δ d 3ε . (1 − δ d ) max a,a ∈A

There exists δ > δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), (1 − δ d ) max |u(a) − u(a )| < ε , and so the continuations are always within 4ε of v, and so within 5ε = ε of v . We have thus shown that for ﬁxed ε, for every v ∈ F † there is a δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), for every v ∈ Bε (v), we can ﬁnd a sequence of pure actions whose payoff is v and whose continuation payoffs lie within ε of v . Now cover F † with the collection of sets {Bε (v) : v ∈ F † }. Taking a ﬁnite subcover and then taking the maximum of the δ over this ﬁnite collection of sets yields the result. ■

This allows us to establish: Proposition Suppose F †p has nonempty interior. Then, for every payoff v in {v˜ ∈ F †p : ∃v ∈

3.7.1 F †p , vi < v˜i ∀i}, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs v. The idea of the proof is to proceed as in the proof of proposition 3.4.1, applied to F † , choosing a discount factor large enough that each of the optimality conditions holds as a strict inequality by at least some ε > 0. For each payoff v d , d = 0, . . . , n, we then construct an inﬁnite sequence of pure action proﬁles giving the same payoff and with continuation values within some ε of this payoff. The strategies of proposition 3.4.1 can now be modiﬁed so that each state w d is replaced by the inﬁnite sequence of states implementing the payoff u(a d ), with play continuing along the sequence in the absence of a deviation and otherwise triggering a punishment as prescribed in the original strategies. We must then argue that the slack in the optimality conditions (3.4.1)–(3.4.2) ensures that they continue to hold once the potential ε error in continuation payoffs is introduced. Though conceptually straightforward, the details of this

3.8

■

Mixed-Action Individual Rationality

101

argument are tedious and so omitted. For ﬁnite games, this result is a special case of proposition 3.8.1 (which is proved in detail).

3.8

Mixed-Action Individual Rationality

Proposition 3.4.2 is a folk theorem for payoff proﬁles that strictly dominate players’ pure-action minmax utilities. In this section, we extend this result for ﬁnite stage games to payoff proﬁles that strictly dominate players’ mixed-action minmax utilities (recall that in many games, a player’s mixed-action minmax utility is strictly less than his pure-action minmax utility). At the same time, using the results of the previous section, we dispense with public correlation. The difﬁculty in using mixed minmax actions as punishments is that the punishment phase may produce quite low payoffs for the punishers. If the minmax actions are pure, the incentive problems produced by these small payoffs are straightforward. Deviations from the prescribed minmax proﬁle can themselves be punished. The situation is more complicated when the minmax actions are mixed. There is no reason to expect player j to be myopically indifferent over the various actions in the support of the mixture required to minmax player i. Consequently, the continuations after the various actions in the support must be such that j is indifferent over these actions. In other words, strategies will need to adjust postpunishment payoffs to ensure that players are indifferent over any pure actions involved in a mixed-action minmax. This link between realized play during the punishment period and postpunishment play will make an automaton description of the strategies rather cumbersome. We use the techniques outlined in the previous section to avoid the use of public correlation.20 A more complicated argument shows that any payoff in F ∗ is an equilibrium payoff for patient players under NEU (see Abreu, Dutta, and Smith 1994). The following version of the full folk theorem sufﬁces for most contexts. Proposition Mixed-minmax perfect monitoring folk theorem Suppose Ai is ﬁnite for all i

3.8.1 and F ∗ has nonempty interior. For any v ∈ {v˜ ∈ F ∗ : ∃v ∈ F ∗ , vi < v˜i ∀i}, there exists δ ∈ (0, 1) such that for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgameperfect equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated game (without public correlation) with discount factor δ giving payoffs v.

Proof Fix v ∈ {v˜ ∈ F ∗ : ∃v ∈ F ∗ , vi < v˜i ∀i}. Because F ∗ is convex and has a

nonempty interior, there exists v ∈ F ∗ and ε > 0 such that B2nε (v ) ⊂ F ∗ and for every player i,

20. The presence of a public correlation device has no effect on player i’s minmax utility. Given a minmax action proﬁle with public correlation, select an outcome of the randomization for which player i’s payoff is minimized, and then note that the accompanying action proﬁle is a minmax proﬁle giving player i the same payoff. In some games with more than two players, player i’s minmax payoff can be pushed lower than vi if the other players have access to a device that allows them to play a correlated action proﬁle, where this device is not available to player i. This is an immediate consequence of the observation that not all correlated distributions over action proﬁles can be obtained through independent randomization.

102

Chapter 3

■

The Folk Theorem

vi − vi ≥ 2ε.

(3.8.1)

Let κ ≡ mini vi − vi , and for each ∈ N ≡ {1, 2, . . .}, let L (δ) be the integer satisfying 2 2 − 1 < L (δ) ≤ . (1 − δ)κ (1 − δ)κ

(3.8.2)

For each , there is δ † () such that L (δ) ≥ 1 for all δ ∈ (δ † (), 1). Moreover, an application of l’Hôpital’s rule shows that 2

lim δ L (δ) = e− κ ,

δ→1

and hence lim lim δ L (δ) = 1.

→∞ δ→1

Consequently, for all η > 0, there exists and δ : N → (0, 1), δ () ≥ δ † () such that for all > and δ > δ (), 1 − η < δ L (δ) < 1. We typically suppress the dependence of L on and δ in our notation. j Denote the proﬁle minmaxing player j by αˆ −j , and suppose player j is to be minmaxed for L periods. Denote player i’s realized average payoff over these L periods by j

pi ≡

L 1 − δ τ −1 δ ui (a(τ )), 1 − δL τ =1

where a(τ ) is the realized action proﬁle in period τ . If the minmax actions are mixed, this average payoff is a random variable, depending on the particular sequence of actions realized in the course of minmaxing player j . Deﬁne j

zi ≡ j

j

1 − δL j pi . δL j

Like pi , zi depends on the realized history of play. Because pi is bounded by the smallest and largest stage-game payoff for player i, we can now choose 1 and δ1 : N → (0, 1), δ1 () ≥ δ † () for all , such that for all > 1 and δ > δ1 (), j δ L (δ) is sufﬁciently close to one that |zi | < ε/2, for all i and j and all realizations of the sequence of minmaxing actions. Deviations from minmax behavior outside the support of the minmax actions present no new difﬁculties because such deviations are detected. Deviations that only involve actions in the support, on the other hand, are not detected. Player j i is only willing to randomize according to the mixture αˆ i if he is indifferent over the pure actions in the support of the mixture. The technique is to specify j continuation play as a function of zi , following the L periods of punishment, to create the required indifference.

3.8

■

103

Mixed-Action Individual Rationality

Deﬁne the payoff v (zj ) = (v1 +ε −z1 , . . . , vj −1 +ε −zj −1 , vj , vj +1 +ε −zj +1 , . . . , vn +ε −zn ). j

j

j

j

Given B2nε (v ) ⊂ F ∗ and our restriction that |zi | < ε/2, we know that Bε (v (zj )) ⊂ F ∗ and vi (zj ) − vi > 2nε. From lemma 3.7.2, there exists δ2 : N → (0, 1), δ2 () ≥ δ1 () for all , such that for any payoff v ∈ F † , there is a sequence of pure action proﬁles, a(v ), whose average discounted payoff is v and whose continuation payoff at any point is within 1/ of v . We now describe the strategies in terms of phases: j

Phase 0: Play a(v), Phase i, i = 1, . . . , n: Play L periods of αˆ i , followed by a(v (zi )). The equilibrium is speciﬁed by the following recursive rules for combining these phases. Play begins in phase 0 and remains there along the equilibrium path. Any unilateral deviation by player i causes play to switch to the beginning of phase i. Any unilateral deviation by player j = k while in phase k causes play to switch to the beginning of phase j . A deviation from a mixed strategy is interpreted throughout as a choice of an action outside the support of the mixture. Mixtures appear only in the ﬁrst L periods of phases 1, . . . , n, when one player is being minmaxed. Simultaneous deviations are ignored throughout. We now verify that for some sufﬁciently large and δ, for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), these strategies (which depend on δ through L (δ)) are an equilibrium. Consider ﬁrst phase 0. A sufﬁcient equilibrium condition for player i to not ﬁnd a deviation proﬁtable is that for i = 1, . . . , n 1 (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )vi + δ L+1 vi ≤ vi − , where the left side is an upper bound on the value of a deviation and the right side a lower bound on the equilibrium continuation value, with (from lemma 3.7.2) the −1/ term reﬂecting the maximum shortfall from the payoff vi of any continuation payoff in a(v). This inequality can be rearranged to give 1 (1 − δ)(M − vi ) ≤ δ(1 − δ L )(vi − vi ) + δ L+1 (vi − vi ) − .

(3.8.3)

From (3.8.1), if > 1/ε, (vi − vi ) − 1/ > 2ε − 1/ > ε > 0. Hence, there exists δ3 : N → (0, 1), δ3 () ≥ δ2 () for all , such that, for all > 1/ε and all δ ≥ δ3 (), δ L (δ) is sufﬁciently close to 1 that (3.8.3) is satisﬁed. Now consider phase j ≥ 1, and suppose at least L periods of this phase have already passed, so that play falls somewhere in the sequence a(v (zj )). If > 1 and δ > δ2 (), a sufﬁcient condition for player i to not ﬁnd a deviation proﬁtable is 1 (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )vi + δ L+1 vi ≤ vi − , with the −1/ term appearing on the right side because i’s continuation value j under a(v (zj )) must be within 1/ of vi (if i = j ) or within 1/ of vi + ε − zi

104

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The Folk Theorem

(otherwise), and hence must be at least vi − 1/. Using (3.8.2), a sufﬁcient condition for this inequality is (1 − δ)(M

− vi )

≤δ 1−δ

2 −1 (1−δ)κ

1 (vi − vi ) − .

(3.8.4)

We now note that as δ approaches 1, the right side converges to 2 1 1 − e− κ (vi − vi ) − .

(3.8.5)

Now, an application of l’Hôpital’s rule, and using κ ≤ vi − vi , shows that " ! 2 1 ≥ 1. lim 1 − e− κ (vi − vi ) − →∞ Fix η > 0 small. There exists 4 ≥ max{1 , 1/ε} such that for all > 4 , the expression in (3.8.5) is no smaller than (1 − η)/. Consequently, there exists δ4 : N → (0, 1), δ4 () ≥ δ3 () for all , such that (3.8.4) holds for all > 4 and δ > δ4 (). Now consider phase j ≥ 1, and suppose we are in the ﬁrst L periods, when player j is to be minmaxed. Player j has no incentive to deviate from the prescribed behavior and prompt the phase to start again, because j is earning j ’s minmax payoff and can do no better during each of the L periods, whereas subsequent play gives j a higher continuation payoff that does not depend on j ’s actions. Player i’s realized payoff while minmaxing player j is given by ! " 1 − δL j j L p (1 − δ L )pi + δ L vi + ε − i = δ (vi + ε), δL which is independent of the actions i takes while minmaxing j . A similar characterization applies to any subset of the L periods during which j is to be minmaxed. j Player i thus has no proﬁtable deviation that remains within the support of aˆ i . Suppose player i deviates outside this support. If > 1 and δ > δ1 (), a deviation in period τ ∈ {1, . . . , L} is unproﬁtable if (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )vi + δ L+1 vi ≤ (1 − δ L−τ +1 )ui (αˆ j ) + δ L−τ +1 (vi + ε/2) because vi (zj ) = vi + ε − zi > vi + ε/2. As δ L (and so δ L−τ +1 for all τ ) approaches 1, this inequality becomes vi ≤ vi + ε/2. Consequently, there exists 5 ≥ 4 and δ5 : N → (0, 1), δ5 () ≥ δ4 () for all , such that for all > 5 and δ > δ5 (), the above displayed inequality is satisﬁed. We now ﬁx a value > 5 and take δ = δ5 (). For any δ ∈ (δ, 1), letting L = L (δ) as deﬁned by (3.8.2) then gives a subgame-perfect equilibrium strategy proﬁle with the desired payoffs. j

■

4 How Long Is Forever?

4.1

Is the Horizon Ever Inﬁnite?

A common complaint about inﬁnitely repeated games is that very few relationships have truly inﬁnite horizons. Moreover, modeling a relationship as a seemingly more realistic ﬁnitely repeated game can make quite a difference. For example, in the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma, the only Nash equilibrium outcome plays SS in every period.1 Should we worry that important aspects of the results rest on unrealistic features of the model? In response, we can do no better than the following from Osborne and Rubinstein (1994, p. 135, emphasis in original): In our view a model should attempt to capture the features of reality that the players perceive . . . the fact that a situation has a horizon that is in some physical sense ﬁnite (or inﬁnite) does not necessarily imply that the best model of the situation has a ﬁnite (or inﬁnite) horizon. . . . If they play a game so frequently that the horizon approaches only very slowly then they may ignore the existence of the horizon entirely until its arrival is imminent, and until this point their strategic thinking may be better captured by a game with an inﬁnite horizon. The key consideration in evaluating a model is not whether it is a literal description of the strategic interaction of interest, nor whether it captures the behavior of perfectly rational players in the actual strategic interaction. Rather, the question is whether the model captures the behavior we observe in the situation of interest. For example, ﬁnitehorizon models predict that ﬁat money should be worthless. Because its value stems only from its ability to purchase consumption goods in the future, it will be worthless in the ﬁnal period of the economy. A standard backward-induction argument then allows us to conclude that it will be worthless in the penultimate period, and the one before that, and so on. Nonetheless, most people are willing to accept money, even those who argue that there is no such thing as an interaction with an inﬁnite horizon. The point 1. A standard backward induction argument shows that SS in every period is the only subgameperfect outcome, because the stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium. The stronger conclusion that this is the only Nash equilibrium outcome follows from the observation that the stagegame Nash equilibrium yields each player his minmax utility. This latter property ensures that “incredible threats” (i.e., a non-Nash continuations) cannot yield payoffs below those of the stage-game Nash equilibrium, precluding the use of future play to create incentives for choosing any current actions other than the stage-game Nash equilibrium.

105

106

Chapter 4

■

How Long Is Forever?

is that whether ﬁnite or inﬁnite, the end of the horizon is sufﬁciently distant that it does not enter people’s strategic calculations. Inﬁnite-horizon models may then be an unrealistic literal description of the world but a useful model of how people behave in that world.

4.2

Uncertain Horizons

An alternative interpretation of inﬁnitely repeated games begins by interpreting players’ preferences for early payoffs as arising out of the possibility that the game may end before later payoffs can be collected. Suppose that in each period t, the game ends with probability 1 − δ > 0, and continues with probability δ > 0. Players maximize the sum of realized payoffs (normalized by 1 − δ). Player i’s expected payoff is then (1 − δ)

∞

δ t ui (a t ).

t=0

Because the probability that the game reaches period t is δ t , and δ t → 0 as t → ∞, the game has a ﬁnite horizon with probability 1. However, once the players have reached any period t, they assign probability δ to play continuing, allowing intertemporal incentives to be maintained despite the certainty of a ﬁnite termination. Viewing the horizon as uncertain in this way allows the model to capture some seemingly realistic features. One readily imagines knowing that a relationship will not last forever, while at the same time never being certain of when it will end. Observe, however, that under this interpretation the distribution over possible lengths of the game has unbounded support. One does not have to believe that the game will last forever but must believe that it could last an arbitrarily long time. Moreover, the hazard rate is constant. No matter how old the relationship is, the expected number of additional periods before the relationship ends is unchanged. The potential for the relationship’s lasting forever has thus been disguised but not eliminated. If the stage game has more than one Nash equilibrium, then intertemporal incentives can be constructed even without the inﬁnite-repetition possibility embedded in a constant continuation probability. Indeed, as we saw in the discussion of the game in ﬁgure 1.1.1 and return to in section 4.4, the prospect of future play can have an effect even if the continuation probability falls to 0 after the second period, that is, even if the game is played only twice. However, if the stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium, such as the prisoners’ dilemma, then the possibility of an inﬁnite horizon is crucial for constructing intertemporal incentives. To see this, suppose that the horizon may be uncertain, but it is commonly known that the game will certainly end no later than after T + 1 periods (where T is some possibly very large but ﬁnite number). Then we again face a backward-induction argument. The game may not last so long, but should period T ever be reached, the players will know it is the ﬁnal period, and there is only one possible equilibrium action proﬁle. Hence, if the game reaches period T − 1, the players will know that their current behavior has no effect on the future, either because the game ends and there is no future play or because the game continues for (only) one more round of play, in which case the unique stage-game Nash equilibrium again

4.3

■

107

Declining Discount Factors

appears. The argument continues, allowing us to conclude that only the stage-game Nash equilibrium can appear in any period. The assumption in the last paragraph that it is commonly known that the game will end by some T is critical. Suppose for example, that although both players know the game must end by period T , player 1 does not know that player 2 knows this. In that case, if period T − 1 were to be reached, player 1 may now place signiﬁcant probability on player 2 not knowing that the next period is the last possible period, and so 1 may exert effort rather than shirk. This argument can be extended, so that even if both players know the game will end by T , and both players know that both know, if it is not commonly known (i.e., at some level of iteration, statements of the form “i knows that j knows that i knows . . . that the game will end by T ” fails), then it may be possible to support effort in the repeated prisoners’ dilemma (see Neyman 1999). To do so, however, requires that, for any arbitrarily large T , player i believes that j believes that i believes . . . that the game could last longer than T periods. In the presence of a unique stage-game Nash equilibrium, nontrivial outcomes in the repeated game thus hinge on at least the possibility of an inﬁnite horizon. However, one might then seek to soften the role of the inﬁnite horizon by allowing the continuation probability to decline as the game is played. We may never be certain that a particular period will be the last but may think it more likely to be the last if the game has already continued for a long time. In the next section, we construct nontrivial intertemporal incentives for stage games with a unique Nash equilibrium, when the continuation probability (discount factor) converges to 0, as long as the rate at which this occurs is not too fast.

4.3

Declining Discount Factors

Suppose players share a sequence of one-period discount factors {δt }∞ t=0 , where δt is the rate applied to period t + 1 payoffs in period t. Hence, payoffs in period t are discounted to the beginning of the game at rate t−1

δτ .

τ =0

We can interpret these discount factors as representing either time preferences or uncertainty as to the length of the game. In the latter case, δτ is the probability that play continues to period τ + 1, conditional on play having reached period τ . We are interested in the case where limτ →∞ δτ = 0. In terms of continuation probabilities, this implies that as τ gets large, the game ends after the current period with probability approaching 1. One natural measure for evaluating payoffs is the average discounted value of the payoff stream {uti }∞ t=0 , ∞

t−1 δτ (1 − δt )uti , t=0

τ =0

where −1 τ =0 δτ ≡ 1. When the discount factor is constant, this coincides with the average discounted value. However, unlike with a constant discount factor, the

108

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How Long Is Forever?

implied intertemporal preferences are different from the preferences without averaging, given by ∞

t−1 δτ uti . τ =0

t=0

We view the unnormalized payoffs uti as the true payoffs and, because the factor (1 − δt ) is here not simply a normalization, we work without it. We assume the players do discount, in the sense that ∞

t−1 τ =0

t=0

δτ ≡ < ∞.

(4.3.1)

When (4.3.1) is satisﬁed, a constant payoff stream uti = ui for all t has a well-deﬁned value in the repeated game, ui . Condition (4.3.1) is trivially satisﬁed if δt → 0. Our interest in the case limτ →0 δτ = 0 imposes some limitations. Intuitively, intertemporal incentives work whenever the myopic incentive to deviate is less than the size of the discounted future cost incurred by the deviation. For small δ, the intertemporal incentives are necessarily weak, and so can only work if the myopic incentive to deviate is also small, such as would arise for action proﬁles close to a stage-game Nash equilibrium. The most natural setting for considering weak myopic incentives to deviate is found in inﬁnite games, such as the oligopoly example of section 2.6.2. Assumption Each player’s action space Ai is an interval [ai , a¯ i ] ⊂ R. The stage game has

4.3.1 a Nash equilibrium proﬁle a N contained in the interior of the set of action proﬁles A. Each payoff function ui is twice continuously differentiable in a and strictly quasi-concave in ai , and each player’s best reply function φi : −i Aj → Ai is continuously differentiable in a neighborhood of a N .2 The Jacobian matrix of partial derivatives Du(a N ) has full rank. This assumption is satisﬁed, for example, in the oligopoly model of section 2.6.2, with an upper bound on quantities of output so as to make the strategy sets compact. We now describe, following Bernheim and Dasgupta (1995), how to construct nontrivial intertemporal incentives. Though the discount factors can converge to 0, intertemporal incentives require that this not occur too quickly. We assume that there exist constants c, > 0 such that, τ

−1

δk2

τ −1−k

τ

≥ c 2 , ∀τ ≥ 1.

(4.3.2)

k=0

This condition holds for a constant discount factor δ (take c = 1/δ and = δ). By taking logs and rearranging, (4.3.2) can be seen to be equivalent to τ −1 1 ln δk > −∞, τ →∞ 2k+1

lim

(4.3.3)

k=0

implying that 2k must grow faster than | ln δk | (if δk → 0, then ln δk → −∞). 2. Because ui is assumed strictly quasi-concave in ai , φi (a−i ) ≡ arg maxai ui (ai , a−i ) is unique, for all a−i .

4.3

■

109

Declining Discount Factors

Proposition Suppose {δk }∞ k=0 is a sequence of discount factors satisfying (4.3.1) and (4.3.2),

4.3.1 but possibly converging to 0. There exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game in which in every period, every player receives a higher payoff than that produced by playing the (possibly unique) stage-game Nash equilibrium, a N . Proof Because Du(a N ) has full rank, and a N is interior, there exists a constant η > 0, a

vector z ∈ RN and an ε > 0 such that, for all ε < ε and all i, ui (a N + εz) − ui (a N ) ≥ ηε.

(4.3.4)

Letting udi (a) denote player i’s maximal deviation payoff, udi (a) = max ui (ai , a−i ), ai ∈Ai

N ), a N ). Because ∂u (a N )/∂a = 0, we have udi (a N ) = ui (φi (a−i i i i −i N ), a N ) ∂φ (a N ) N ), a N ) ∂ui (φi (a−i ∂ui (φi (a−i ∂udi (a N ) i −i −i −i = + ∂aj ∂ai ∂aj ∂aj

=

N ), a N ) ∂ui (φi (a−i −i

∂aj

=

∂ui (a N ) . ∂aj

(This is an instance of the envelope theorem.) By Taylor’s formula, there exists a β > 0 and ε such that, for all i and ε < ε , udi (a N + εz)−ui (a N + εz) ≤ udi (a N ) − ui (a N ) + ε

n j =1

= βε . 2

# zj

∂udi (a N ) ∂ui (a N ) − ∂aj ∂aj

$ + ε2 β (4.3.5)

In the oligopoly example of section 2.6.2, this is the observation that the payoff increment from the optimal deviation from proposed output levels, as a function of those levels, has a zero slope at the stage-game Nash equilibrium (in ﬁgure 2.6.1, µd is tangential to µ at q = a N ). As we have noted, this is an envelope theorem result. The most one can gain by deviating from the stage-game equilibrium strategies is 0, and the most one can gain by deviating from nearby strategies is nearly 0. Summarizing, moving actions away from the stage-game Nash equilibrium in the direction z yields ﬁrst-order payoff gains (4.3.4) while prompting only secondorder increases in the temptation to defect (4.3.5). This suggests that the threat of Nash reversion should support the non-Nash candidate actions as an equilibrium, if these actions are sufﬁciently close to the Nash proﬁle. The discount factor will determine the effectiveness of the threat, and so how close the candidate actions must be to the Nash point. As the discount factor gets lower, the punishment becomes relatively less severe. As a result, the proposed actions may have to move closer to the stage-game equilibrium to reinforce the weight of the punishment compared to the temptation of a deviation.

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Consider, then, the following strategies. We construct a sequence εt for t = 0, . . . , and let the period t equilibrium outputs be a N + εt z, with any deviation prompting Nash reversion (i.e., subsequent, permanent play of a N ). These strategies will be an equilibrium if every εt is less than min{ε , ε } and if, for all t, βεt2 ≤ δt ηεt+1 .

(4.3.6)

The left side of this inequality is an upper bound on the immediate payoff gain produced by deviating from the proposed equilibrium sequence, and the right side is a lower bound on the discounted value of next period’s payoff loss from reverting to Nash equilibrium play. To establish the existence of an equilibrium, we then need only verify that we can construct a sequence {εt }∞ t=0 satisfying (4.3.6) while remaining below the bounds ε and ε for which (4.3.4) and (4.3.5) hold. To do this, ﬁx ε0 and recursively deﬁne a sequence {εt }∞ t=0 by setting εt+1 =

βεt2 . ηδt

This leads to the sequence, for t ≥ 1, # t−1 $−1 2t −1

t−1−k β 2t 2 (ε0 ) δk . εt = η k=0

By construction, this sequence satisﬁes (4.3.6). We need only verify that the sequence can be constructed so that no term exceeds min{ε , ε }. To do this, notice that, from (4.3.2), we have, for all t ≥ 1, t η β ε0 2 εt ≤ . βc η It now remains only to choose ε0 sufﬁciently small that ε0 < min{ε , ε }, that βε02 /[ηc 2 ] < min{ε , ε } (ensuring ε1 < min{ε , ε }), and that βε0 /η ≤ 1 (so that εt+1 ≤ εt for t ≥ 1). ■

It is important to note that the above result covers the case where the stage game has a unique equilibrium. Multiple stage game equilibria only make it easier to construct nontrivial intertemporal incentives. Bernheim and Dasgupta (1995) provide conditions under which (4.3.3) is necessary as well as sufﬁcient for there to exist any subgame-perfect equilibrium other than the continuous play of a unique stage-game Nash equilibrium. This necessity result is not intuitively obvious. The optimality condition given by (4.3.6) assumes that deviations are punished by Nash reversion and makes use only of the ﬁrst period of such a punishment when verifying the optimality of equilibrium behavior. Observe, however, that as the discount factors tend to 0, eventually all punishments are effectively single-period punishments. From the viewpoint of period t, period t + 1 is discounted

4.3

■

111

Declining Discount Factors

at rate δt , and period t + 2 is discounted at rate δt δt+1 . Because lim

t→∞

δt δt+1 = lim δt+1 = 0, t→∞ δt

it is eventually the case that any payoffs occurring two periods in the future are discounted arbitrarily heavily compared to next period’s payoffs, ensuring that effectively only the next period matters in any punishment. There may well be more severe punishments than Nash reversion, and much of the proof of the necessity of (4.3.3) is concerned with such punishments. The intuition is straightforward. Equation (4.3.6) is the optimality condition for punishments by Nash reversion. The prospect of a more serious punishment allows us to replace (4.3.6) with a counterpart that has a larger penalty on the right side. But if (4.3.6) holds for some η and this large penalty, then it must also hold for some larger value η and the penalty of Nash reversion (then proportionately reducing both η and β, if needed, so that (4.3.4) and (4.3.5) hold). In a sense, the Nash reversion and optimal punishment cases differ only by a constant. Translating (4.3.3) into the equivalent (4.3.2), the existence of nontrivial subgame-perfect equilibria based on either Nash reversion or optimal punishments both imply the existence of a (possibly different) constant for which (4.3.2) holds. This result shows that nontrivial subgame-perfect equilibria can be supported with discount factors that decline to 0. However, it only establishes that we can support some equilibrium path of outcomes that does not always coincide with the stage-game Nash equilibrium, leaving open the possibility that the equilibrium path is very close to continual play of the stage-game Nash equilibrium. We can apply the insights from ﬁnitely repeated games (discussed in the next section) to construct additional equilibria that are “far” from the Nash equilibrium, as long as there is an initial sequence of sufﬁciently large discount factors. Proposition Suppose the set of feasible payoffs F has full dimension and {δ˜t }∞ t=0 is a sequence

4.3.2 of discount factors satisfying (4.3.1) and (4.3.2). Suppose the action proﬁle a is strictly individually rational with u(a) in the interior of F . Then there exist a δ¯ ∈ (0, 1) and an integer T ∗ such that for all T ≥ T ∗ , if δt ≥ δ¯ for all t ≤ T and δt ≥ δ˜t−T −1 for all t > T , then there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium ∗ of the game with discount factors {δt }∞ t=0 in which a is played in the ﬁrst T − T periods. ¯ where δt ≥ δ¯ > δ˜0 for all t ≤ T Proof Consider a repeated game characterized by (T , δ),

and δt ≥ δ˜t−T −1 for all t ≥ T + 1. The subgame beginning in period T + 1 of the repeated game has (at least) two subgame-perfect equilibria, the inﬁnite repetition of a N and an equilibrium σ from proposition 4.3.1 with payoffs v¯ satisfying v¯i > ui (a N ) for all i (recall (4.3.1)). ¯ − Let a¯ be the action proﬁle in the ﬁrst period of σ , and note that mini ui (a) ui (a N ) > 0. Suppose u(a) strictly dominates u(a N ), and deﬁne ε ≡ min{ui (a) − ∗ ¯ − ui (a N )} > 0. For T ∗ < T , let σ T be the proﬁle that speciﬁes ui (a N ), ui (a) a in every period t < T − T ∗ , a¯ in periods T − T ∗ ≤ t ≤ T , and then σ as the continuation proﬁle in period T + 1. A deviation in any period results in Nash reversion. Because δt ≥ δ˜0 for t ≤ T , and σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of

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How Long Is Forever?

the subgame beginning in period T + 1, no player wishes to deviate in any period t ≥ T − T ∗ . If player i deviates in a period t < T − T ∗ , there is a one-period gain of udi (a) − ui (a), which must be compared to the ﬂow losses of ui (a) − ¯ − ui (a N ) ≥ ε in periods ui (a N ) ≥ ε in periods t + 1, . . . , T − T ∗ − 1, and ui (a) ∗ T − T , . . . , T , as well as the continuation value loss of v¯i − ui (a N ) > 0 in period T + 1. By choosing T ∗ large enough and δ¯ close enough to 1, the discounted value of a loss of at least ε for at least T ∗ periods dominates the one-period gain. Constructing equilibria for a with payoffs that do not strictly dominate u(a N ) is more complicated and is accomplished using the techniques of Benoit and Krishna (1985), discussed in section 4.4. ■

These results depend on the assumption that the stage-game strategy sets are compact intervals of the reals, rather than ﬁnite, so that actions can eventually become arbitrarily close to stage-game Nash equilibrium actions. They do not hold for ﬁnite stage games. In particular, if the stage game is ﬁnite, then there is a lower bound on the amount that can be gained by at least some player by deviating from any pure-strategy outcome that is not a Nash equilibrium. As a result, if the stage-game has a unique strict Nash equilibrium, then when discount factors decline to 0, the only subgame-perfect equilibria of the repeated game will feature perpetual play of the stage-game Nash equilibrium.

4.4

Finitely Repeated Games

This section shows that the unique equilibrium of the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma is not typical of ﬁnitely repeated games in general. The discussion of ﬁgure 1.1.1 provides a preview of the results presented here. If the stage game has multiple Nash equilibrium payoffs, then it is possible to construct effective intertemporal incentives. Consequently, sufﬁciently long but ﬁnitely repeated games feature sets of equilibrium payoffs very much like those of inﬁnitely repeated games. In contrast, a straightforward backward-induction argument shows that the only subgameperfect equilibrium of a ﬁnitely repeated stage game with a unique stage-game Nash equilibrium has this equilibrium action proﬁle played in every period. We assume that players in the ﬁnitely repeated game maximize average payoffs over the ﬁnite horizon, that is, if the stage game characterized by payoff function u : i Ai → Rn is played T times, then the payoff to player i from the outcome (a 0 , a 1 , . . . , a T −1 ) is T −1 1 ui (a t ). T

(4.4.1)

t=0

It is perhaps more natural to retain the discount factor δ, and use the discounted ﬁnite sum T −1 1−δ t δ ui (a t ) 1 − δT t=0

(4.4.2)

4.4

■

113

Finitely Repeated Games

A

B

C

A

4, 4

0, 0

0, 0

B

0, 0

3, 1

0, 0

C

2, 2

0, 0

1, 3

Figure 4.4.1 The game for example 4.4.1. The game has three strict Nash equilibria, AA, BB, and CC.

as the T period payoff. However, this payoff converges to the average given by (4.4.1) as δ → 1, and it is simpler to work with (4.4.1) and concentrate on the limit as T gets large than to work with (4.4.2) and the limits as both T gets large and δ gets sufﬁciently close to 1. One difﬁculty in working with ﬁnitely repeated games is that they obviously do not have the same recursive structure as inﬁnitely repeated games. The horizons of the continuation subgame become shorter after longer histories. We begin with an example to illustrate that even in some short games, it can be easy to construct player-speciﬁc punishments. Example The stage game is given in ﬁgure 4.4.1. The two action proﬁles BB and CC are

4.4.1 player speciﬁc punishments, in the sense that BB minimizes player 2’s payoffs over the Nash equilibria of the stage game, and CC does for player 1. If the game is played twice, then it is possible to support the proﬁle CA in the ﬁrst period in a subgame-perfect equilibrium: If CA is played in the ﬁrst period, play AA in the second period; if AA is played in the ﬁrst period (i.e., 1 deviated to A), play CC in the second; if CC is played in the ﬁrst period (i.e., 2 deviated to C), play BB in the second; and after all other ﬁrst-period action proﬁles, play AA in the second period. The second-period Nash equilibrium speciﬁed by this proﬁle depends on the identity of the ﬁrst period deviator. If the game is played T times, then the proﬁle can be extended, maintaining subgame perfection, so that CA is played in the ﬁrst T − 1 periods, with any unilateral deviation by player i being immediately followed by CC if i = 1 and BB if i = 2 till the end of the game. It is important for this proﬁle that CA yields higher payoffs to both players than their respective punishing Nash equilibria of the stage game. If the payoff proﬁle from CA were (0, 0) rather than (2, 2), then player 1, for example, prefers to trigger the punishment (which gives him 1 in each period) than to play CA (which gives him 0).3 Finally, note that the “rewarding” Nash proﬁle of AA is not needed. Suppose the payoff proﬁle from AA were (3, −2) rather than (4, 4). Player 1 still has a 3. When the payoff to CA is (0, 0), player 1 prefers the outcome CA, CA, AA, AA to the outcome AA, CC, CC, CC. For T = 3, 4, it is easily seen that there is then a subgame-perfect equilibrium with AA played in the last two periods and CA played in the ﬁrst one or two periods.

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How Long Is Forever?

myopic incentive to play A rather than C, when 2 is playing A. Because AA is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, it cannot be used in the last periods to reward players for playing CA in earlier periods. However, observe that each player prefers an outcome that alternates between BB and CC to perpetual play of their punishment proﬁle. Hence, for T = 3, the following proﬁle is a subgameperfect equilibrium: Play CA in the ﬁrst period; if CA is played in the ﬁrst period, play BB in the second period and CC in the third period; if AA is played in the ﬁrst period, play CC in the second and third periods; if CC is played in the ﬁrst period, play BB in the second and third periods; and after all other ﬁrst-period action proﬁles, play BB in the second period and CC in the third period. ●

Let N be set of Nash equilibria of the stage game. For each player i, deﬁne wi ≡ min {ui (α)}, α∈N

player i’s worst Nash equilibrium payoff in the stage game. We ﬁrst state and prove a Nash-reversion folk theorem, due to Friedman (1985). Proposition Suppose there exists a payoff v ∈ co(N ) with wi < vi for all i. For all a ∗ ∈ A

4.4.1 satisfying ui (a ∗ ) > wi for all i, for any ε > 0, there exists Tε such that for every T > Tε , the T period repeated game has a subgame-perfect equilibrium with payoffs within ε of u(a ∗ ).

Proof Because the inequality wi < vi is strict, there exists a rational convex combination

of Nash equilibria, v˜ ∈ co(N ), with v˜i > wi . That is, there are m equilibria {α k ∈ N : k = 1, . . . , m} and m positive integers, {λk }, such that, for all i, 1 k λ ui (α k ), L m

wi < v˜i =

k=1

∗ )− where L = λk . Set η ≡ mini v˜i − wi > 0, and ≡ maxi,ai |ui (ai , a−i ∗ ∗ ∗ ui (a )| ≥ 0. Let t be the smallest multiple of L larger than /η, so that t = L for some positive integer , and consider games of length T at least t ∗ . The strategy proﬁle speciﬁes a ∗ in the ﬁrst T − t ∗ periods, provided that there has been no deviation from such behavior. In periods T − t ∗ , . . . , T , the equilibrium α k is played λk times (the order is irrelevant because payoffs are averaged). After the ﬁrst unilateral deviation by player i, the stage-game equilibrium yielding payoffs wi is played in every subsequent period. It is straightforward to verify that this is a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Finally, by choosing T sufﬁciently large, the payoffs from the ﬁrst T − t ∗ periods will dominate. There is then a length Tε such that for any T > Tε , the payoffs from the constructed equilibrium strategy proﬁle are within ε of u(a ∗ ).

■

This construction uses the ability to switch between stage-game Nash equilibria near the end of the game to create incentives supporting a target action proﬁle a ∗ in earlier periods that is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game. As we discussed in

4.4

■

115

Finitely Repeated Games

A

B

C

D

A

4, 4

0, 0

18, 0

1, 1

B

0, 0

6, 6

0, 0

1, 1

C

0, 18

0, 0

13, 13

1, 1

D

1, 1

1, 1

1, 1

0, 0

Figure 4.4.2 A game with repeated-game payoffs below 4.

example 4.4.1, it is essential for this construction that for each player i, there exists a Nash equilibrium of the stage game giving i a lower payoff than does the target action a ∗ . If this were not the case, players would be eager to trigger the punishments supposedly providing the incentives to play a ∗ . With somewhat more complicated strategies, we can construct equilibria of a repeated game with payoffs lower than the payoffs in any stage-game Nash equilibrium. Example In the stage game of ﬁgure 4.4.2, there are two stage-game Nash equilibria, AA

4.4.2 and BB. The lowest payoff in any stage-game pure-strategy Nash equilibrium is 4. Suppose this game is played twice. There is an equilibrium with an average payoff of 3 for each player: Play DD in the ﬁrst period, followed by BB in the second, and after any deviation play AA in the second period. We can now use this two-period equilibrium to support outcomes in the threeperiod game. Observe ﬁrst that in the three-period game, CC cannot be supported in the ﬁrst period using the threat of two periods of AA rather than two periods of BB, because the myopic incentive to deviate is 5, and the total size of the punishment is 4 (to get the repeated-game payoffs, divide everything by 3). On the other hand, we can support CC in the three-period game as follows: The equilibrium outcome is (CC, BB, BB); after any ﬁrst period proﬁle a 0 = CC, play the two-period equilibrium outcome (DD, BB). ●

If aˆ is a subgame-perfect outcome path of the Tˆ period game, and a˜ is a subgameperfect outcome path of the T˜ period game, then by “restarting” the game after the ﬁrst Tˆ periods, it is clear that aˆ a˜ is a subgame-perfect outcome path of the Tˆ + T˜ period game. Hence, i’s worst punishment (equilibrium) payoff in the Tˆ + T˜ period game is at least as low as the average of his punishment payoffs in the Tˆ period game and the T˜ period game. Typically, it will be strictly lower. In example 4.4.2, the worst twoperiod punishment (with outcome path (DD, BB)) is strictly worse than the repetition of the worst one-period punishment (of AA). This subadditivity allows us to construct equilibria with increasingly severe punishments as the length of the game increases, in turn allowing us to achieve larger sets of equilibrium payoffs. Benoit and Krishna (1985) prove the following proposition.

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Proposition Suppose for every player i, there is a stage-game Nash equilibrium α i such that

4.4.2 ui (α i ) > wi , and that F ∗ has full dimension. Then for any payoff vector v ∈ F †p and any ε > 0, there exists T ∗ such that, for all T ≥ T ∗ , there exists a perfect equilibrium path (a 0 , a 1 , . . . , a T −1 ) with % T −1 % %1 % % % t u(a ) − v % < ε. % %T % t=0

We omit the involved proof, conﬁning ourselves to some comments and an example. The full-dimensionality assumption appears for the same reason as it does in the case of inﬁnitely repeated games. It allows us the freedom to construct punishments that treat players differently. The key insight is Benoit and Krishna’s (1985) lemma 3.5. This lemma essentially demonstrates that given punishments in a T period game, for sufﬁciently larger T , it is possible to construct for each player a punishment with a lower average payoff. The punishment shares some similarities to those used in the proof of proposition 3.4.1 and uses three phases. In the ﬁrst phase of player i’s punishment, player i is pure-action minmaxed.4 In the second phase, players j = i are rewarded (relative to the T period punishments that could be imposed) for minmaxing i during the ﬁrst phase, whereas i is held to his T period punishment level. Finally, in the last phase, stage-game Nash equilibria are played, so that the average payoff in this phase exceeds wi for all i. This last phase is chosen sufﬁciently long that no player has an incentive to deviate in the second phase. The lengths of the ﬁrst two phases are simultaneously determined to maintain the remaining incentives, and to ensure that i’s average payoff over the three phases is less than his T -period punishment. Example As in the inﬁnitely repeated game (see section 3.3), the ability to mutually min-

4.4.3 max in the two-player case can allow a more transparent approach. We illustrate taking advantage of the particular structure of the game in ﬁgure 4.4.2. The pure (and mixed) minmax payoff for this game is 1 for each player, with proﬁle DD minmaxing each player. We deﬁne a player 1 punishment lasting T periods, for any T ≥ 0. This punishment gives player 1 a payoff very close to his minmax level (for large T ) while using mutual minmaxing behavior to sustain the optimality of the behavior producing this punishment payoff. First, we deﬁne the outcome for the punishment. Fix Q and S, satisfying conditions to be determined. First, for any T > Q + S, deﬁne the outcome path a(T ) ≡ (DD, DD, . . . , DD, AD, AD, . . . , AD, BB, BB, . . . , BB). Q times

T −Q−S times

S times

For T satisfying S < T ≤ Q + S, deﬁne a(T ) ≡ (DD, DD, . . . , DD, BB, BB, . . . , BB), T −S times

S times

4. It seems difﬁcult (if not impossible) to replicate the arguments from section 3.8, extending the analysis to mixed minmax payoffs, for the ﬁnite horizon case. However, there is a mixed minmax folk theorem (proved using different techniques), see Gossner (1995).

4.4

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117

Finitely Repeated Games

and for T ≤ S, a(T ) ≡ (BB, BB, . . . , BB). T times

Observe that for large T , most of the periods involve action proﬁle AD and hence player 1’s minmax payoff of 1. This will play a key role in allowing us to push the average player 1 payoff over the course of the punishment close to the minmax payoff of 1. We must specify a punishment for all values of T , not simply large values of T , because the shorter punishments will play a role in ensuring that we can obtain the longer punishment outcomes as outcomes of equilibrium strategies. We now describe a strategy proﬁle σ T with outcome path a(T ), and then provide conditions on Q and S that guarantee that σ T is subgame perfect. We proceed recursively, as a function of T . Suppose ﬁrst that T ≤ S. Because the punishment outcome a(T ) speciﬁes a stage-game Nash equilibrium in each of the last T periods for any T ≤ S, no player has a myopic incentive to deviate. The strategy σ T then ignores all deviations, specifying BB after every history. For T satisfying S < T ≤ 2Q + S, σ T speciﬁes that after the ﬁrst unilateral deviation from a(T ) in a period t ≤ T − S − 1, AA is played in every subsequent period (with further deviations ignored). Deviations from the stage-game action proﬁle in the ﬁnal S periods are ignored. For T > 2Q + S, any unilateral deviation from a(T ) in any period t results in the continuation proﬁle σ T −t−1 . The critical feature of this proﬁle is that for short horizons, a switch from BB to AA provides incentives. For longer horizons, however, the incentive to carry on with the punishment is provided by the fact that a deviation triggers Q new periods of mutual minmax. In an inﬁnite horizon game, this would be the only punishment needed. In a ﬁnite horizon, we cannot continue with the threat of Q new periods of minmaxing forever, and so the use of this threat early in the game must be coupled with a transition to other threats in later periods. In establishing conditions under which these strategies constitute an equilibrium, it is important that both players’ payoffs under the outcome a(T ) are identical, and that under the candidate proﬁle, player 2’s incentives to deviate are always at least as large as those of player 1. These properties appear because the stage game features the action proﬁle AD, under which both players earn their minmax payoffs (though this is not a mutual-minmax action proﬁle). For S < T ≤ Q + S, the most proﬁtable deviation is in the ﬁrst period, and this is not proﬁtable if 1 + (T − 1)4 ≤ 6S, that is, if 4T − 3 ≤ 6S. The constraint is most severe if T = Q + S, and so the deviation is not proﬁtable if 4Q − 3 ≤ 2S. Suppose Q + S < T ≤ 2Q + S. There are two classes of deviations we need to worry about, deviations in the ﬁrst Q periods, and those after the ﬁrst Q periods but before the last S periods. The most proﬁtable deviation in the ﬁrst class occurs in the ﬁrst period, and is not proﬁtable if (where R = T − Q − S), 1 + (Q − 1 + R + S)4 ≤ R + 6S. This constraint is most severe when R = Q, and so is satisﬁed if 7Q − 3 ≤ 2S. Because the payoff from AD is less than that of AA, the most proﬁtable deviation in the second class is in period Q + 1, and is not proﬁtable if (because player 2 has the greater incentive to deviate)

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4 + (R − 1 + S)4 ≤ R + 6S, which is most severe when R = Q. For Q ≥ 1, this constraint is implied by 7Q − 3 ≤ 2S. Suppose now T > 2Q + S. Observe ﬁrst that deviating in a period t ≤ Q results in the deviator being minmaxed, and so at best reorders payoffs, but brings no increase. The only remaining deviations are from AD by player 2, and the most proﬁtable is in period Q + 1. Such a deviation yields a total payoff of 4 + Q × 0 + (R − 1 − Q) × 1 + 6S, whereas the total payoff from not deviating is R × 1 + 6S. The deviation is not proﬁtable if 4 + (R − 1 − Q) + 6S ≤ R + 6S, that is, 3 ≤ Q. Hence, if Q ≥ 3 and S ≥ (7Q − 3)/2, the strategy proﬁle σ T is a subgameperfect equilibrium for any T . We can then ﬁx Q and S and, by choosing T sufﬁciently large, make player 1’s punishment payoff arbitrarily close to 1. The same can be done for player 2. These punishments can then be used to construct equilibria sustaining any strictly individually rational outcome path, in a ﬁnitely repeated game of sufﬁcient length. ●

4.5

Approximate Equilibria

We have noted that the sole Nash equilibrium of the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’dilemma features mutual shirking in every period. For example, there is no Nash-equilibrium outcome in which both players exert effort in every period, because it is a superior response to exert effort until the last period and then shirk. However, this opportunity to shirk may have a tiny impact on payoffs compared to the total stakes of the game. What if we weakened our equilibrium concept by asking only for approximate best responses? Let h be a history and let σ h be the strategy proﬁle σ modiﬁed at (only) histories preceding h to ensure that σ h generates history h. Notice that σ |h is the continuation strategy induced by σ and history h, which may or may not appear under strategy σ , while σ h is a potentially different strategy, in the original game, under which history h certainly occurs. The strategies σ |h and σ h |h are identical. Definition A strategy proﬁle σˆ is an ε-Nash equilibrium if, for each player i and strategy σi ,

4.5.1 we have Ui (σˆ ) ≥ Ui (σi , σˆ −i ) − ε. A strategy proﬁle σˆ is an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium if, for each player i, history h and strategy σi , we have h ) − ε. Ui (σˆ h ) ≥ Ui (σih , σˆ −i

If we set ε = 0 in the ﬁrst deﬁnition, we have the deﬁnition of a Nash equilibrium of the repeated game. Setting ε equal to 0 in the second gives the deﬁnition of subgame perfection. Any ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium must be an ε-Nash equilibrium.

4.5

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Approximate Equilibria

119

Example Consider the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 1.2.1, with horizon T

T −1 4.5.1 and payoffs evaluated according to the average-payoff criterion T1 t=0 u(a t ). For every ε > 0, there is a ﬁnite Tε such that for every T ≥ Tε , there is an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium in which the players exert effort in every period (Radner 1980).5 The veriﬁcation of this statement is a simple calculation. Let the equilibrium strategies be given by grim trigger, prescribing effort after every history featuring no shirking and prescribing shirking otherwise. The best response to such a strategy is to exert effort until the ﬁnal period and then shirk. The equilibrium strategy is then an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium if 2 ≥ T1 [2(T − 1) + 3] − ε, or T1 ≤ ε. For any ε, the proposed strategies are thus an ε-equilibrium in any game of length at least Tε = 1/ε. ●

Consistent mutual effort is an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium because the ﬁnal-period deviation to shirking generates a payoff increment that averaged over Tε periods is less than ε. If ε = 0, of course, then the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma admits only shirking as a Nash-equilibrium outcome. These statements are reconciled by noting the order of the quantiﬁers in example 4.5.1. If we ﬁx the length of the game T , then, for sufﬁciently small values of ε, the only ε-Nash equilibrium calls for universal shirking. However, for any ﬁxed value of ε, we can ﬁnd a value of T sufﬁciently large as to support effort as an ε-equilibrium. Remark The payoff increment to ﬁnal-period shirking may be small in the context of a T

4.5.1 period average, but may also loom large in the ﬁnal period. A strategy proﬁle σ ∗ is a contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium if, for each player i, history h and ∗ | ) − ε. A contemporaneous perfect strategy σi , we have Ui (σ ∗ |h ) ≥ Ui (σi |h , σ−i h ∗h ε-equilibrium thus evaluates the strategy σ not in the original game but in the continuation game induced by h.6 Radner (1980) shows that for every ε > 0, there is a ﬁnite Tε such that there is a contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium of the T -period prisoners’ dilemma with −1 u(a t ), for any T ≥ Tε , in which players the average-payoff criterion T1 Tt=0 exert effort in all but the ﬁnal Tε periods. As T increases, we can thus sustain effort for an arbitrarily large proportion of the periods. The strategies prescribe effort in the initial period and effort in every subsequent period that is preceded by no shirking and that occurs no later than period T − Tε − 1 (for some Tε to be determined), with shirking otherwise. The best response to such a strategy exerts effort through period T − Tε − 2 and then shirks. The proﬁle is a contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium if 2/(Tε + 1) ≥ 3/(Tε + 1) − ε, or Tε ≥ 1/ε − 1. The key to this result is that the average payoff criterion can cause payoff differences in distant periods to appear small in the current period, and can also cause payoff 5. While Radner (1980) examines ﬁnitely repeated oligopoly games, the issues can be more parsimoniously presented in the context of the prisoners’ dilemma. Radner (1981) explores analogous equilibria in the context of a repeated principal-agent game, where the construction is complicated by the inability of the principal to perfectly monitor the agent’s actions. 6. Lehrer and Sorin (1998) and Watson (1994) consider concepts that require contemporaneous ε-optimality conditional only on those histories that are reached along the equilibrium path.

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differences in the current period to appear small, as long as there are enough periods left in the continuation game. Mailath, Postlewaite, and Samuelson (2005) note that if payoffs are discounted instead of simply averaged, then for sufﬁciently small ε, the only contemporaneous perfect equilibrium outcome is to always shirk, no matter how long the game. In this respect, the average and discounted payoff criteria of (4.4.1) and (4.4.2) have different implications. ◆ Proposition 4.4.2 shows that the set of equilibrium payoffs, for very long ﬁnitely repeated games with multiple stage-game Nash equilibria, is close to its counterpart in inﬁnitely repeated games. Considering ε-equilibria allows us to establish a continuity result that also applies to stage games with a unique Nash equilibrium. Fix a ﬁnite stage game G and let GT be its T -fold repetition, with G∞ being the corresponding inﬁnitely repeated game. Let payoffs be discounted, and hence given by (4.4.2). Let σ ∞ and σ T denote strategy proﬁles for G∞ and GT . We would like ∞ to speak of a sequence of strategy proﬁles {σ T }∞ T =0 as converging to σ . To do so, T T ∞ ﬁrst convert each strategy σ to a strategy σˆ in game G by concatenating σ T ∞ if the with an arbitrary strategy for G∞ . We then say that {σ T }∞ T =0 converges to σ ∞ T ∞ sequence {σˆ }T =0 converges to σ in the product topology (i.e., for any history ht , σˆ T (ht ) converges to σ ∞ (ht ) as T → ∞). Fudenberg and Levine’s (1983) theorem 3.3 implies: Proposition The strategy proﬁle σ ∞ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of G∞ if and only if

4.5.1 there exist sequences ε(n), T (n), and σ T (n) , n = 1, 2, . . . , with σ T (n) an ex ante perfect ε-equilibrium of GT (n) and with limn→∞ ε(n) = 0, limn→∞ T (n) = ∞, and limn→∞ σ T (n) = σ ∞ . Fudenberg and Levine (1983) establish this result for games that are continuous at inﬁnity, a class of games that includes repeated games with discounted payoffs as a common example. Intuitively, a game is continuous at inﬁnity if two strategy proﬁles yield nearly the same payoff proﬁle whenever they generate identical behavior on a sufﬁciently long initial string of periods. Hence, behavior differences that occur sufﬁciently far in the future must have a sufﬁciently small impact on payoffs. At the cost of a more complicated topology on strategies (simpliﬁed by Harris 1985), Fudenberg and Levine (1983) extend the result beyond ﬁnite games (see also Fudenberg and Levine 1986 and Börgers 1989). Mailath, Postlewaite, and Samuelson’s (2005) observation that the ﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma with discounting has a unique contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium for sufﬁciently small ε and for any length, shows that a counterpart of proposition 4.5.1 does not hold for contemporaneous perfect ε-equilibrium.

4.6

Renegotiation

For sufﬁciently high discount factors, it is an equilibrium outcome for the players in a repeated prisoners’ dilemma to exert effort in every period with the temptation to shirk deterred by a subsequent switch to perpetual, mutual shirking. This equilibrium

4.6

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Renegotiation

L

R

T

9, 9

0, 8

B

8, 0

7, 7

Figure 4.6.1 Coordination game in which efﬁciency and risk dominance conﬂict.

is subgame perfect, so that carrying out the punishment is itself an equilibrium of the continuation game facing the players after someone has shirked. Suppose the punishment phase has been triggered. Why doesn’t one player approach the other and say, “Let’s just forget about carrying on with this punishment and start over with a new equilibrium, in which we exert effort. It’s an equilibrium to do so, just as it’s an equilibrium to continue with the punishment, but starting over gives us a better equilibrium.” If the other player is convinced, the punishment path is not implemented. Renegotiation-proof equilibria limit attention to equilibria that survive this type of renegotiation credibility test. However, if the punishment path indeed fails this renegotiation test, then it is no longer obvious that we can support the original equilibrium in which effort was exerted, in which case the renegotiation challenge to the punishment may not be convincing, in which case the punishment is again available, and so on. Any notion of renegotiation proofness must resolve such self-references. Renegotiation is a compelling consideration for credibility to the extent that the restriction to efﬁciency is persuasive. There is a large body of research centered on the premise that economic systems do not always yield efﬁcient outcomes, to the extent that events such as bank failures (Diamond and Dybvig 1983), discrimination (Coate and Loury 1993), or economic depressions (Cooper and John 1988) are explained as events in which players have coordinated on an inefﬁcient equilibrium. At the same time, it is frequently argued that we should restrict attention to efﬁcient equilibria of games. The study of equilibrium is commonly justiﬁed by a belief that there is some process resulting in equilibrium behavior. The argument then continues that this same process should be expected to produce not only an equilibrium but an efﬁcient one. Suppose, for example, the process is thought to involve (nonbinding) communication among the players in which they agree on a plan of play before the game is actually played. If this communcation leads the players to agree on an equilibrium, why not an efﬁcient one? This case for efﬁciency is not always obvious. Consider the game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.1, taken from Aumann (1990). The efﬁcient outcome is TL, for payoffs of (9, 9). However, equilibrium BR is less risky, in the sense that B and R are best responses unless one is virtually certain that L and T will be played.7 Even staunch believers in efﬁciency might entertain sufﬁcient doubt about their opponents as to give rise to BR. Suppose now that we put some preliminary communication into the mix in an attempt 7. Formally, (B, R) is the risk-dominant equilibrium (Harsanyi and Selten 1988).

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to banish these doubts. One can then view player 2 as urging 1 to play T , as part of equilibrium TL, with player 1 all the while thinking, “Player 2 is better off if I choose T no matter what she plays, so there is nothing to be learned from her advocacy of T . In addition, if she entertains doubts as to whether she has convinced me to play T , she will optimally play R, suggesting that I should protect myself by playing B.” The same holds in reverse, suggesting that the players may still choose BR, despite their protests to the contrary. The concept of a renegotiation-proof equilibrium pushes the belief in efﬁciency further. We are asked to think of the players being able to coordinate on an efﬁcient equilibrium not only at the beginning of the game but also at any time during the game. Hence, should they ever ﬁnd themselves facing an inefﬁcient continuation equilibrium, whether on or off the equilibrium path, they can renegotiate to achieve an efﬁcient equilibrium.

4.6.1 Finitely Repeated Games The logic of renegotiation proofness seems straightforward: Agents should not settle for a continuation equilibrium if it is strictly dominated by some other equilibrium. However, we should presumably exclude an equilibrium only if it gives rise to a continuation equilibrium that is strictly dominated by some other renegotiation-proof equilibrium. This self-reference in the deﬁnition makes an obvious formulation of renegotiation proofness elusive. Many of the attendant difﬁculties are eliminated in ﬁnitely repeated games, where backward induction allows us to avoid the ambiguity. We accordingly start with a discussion of ﬁnitely repeated games (based on Benoit and Krishna 1993). We consider a normal-form two-player game G that is played T times, to yield the game GT .8 Normalized payoffs are given by (4.4.1). As in section 4.4, it simpliﬁes the analysis to work with the limiting case of no discounting. We work throughout without public correlation. Fixing a stage game G, let E t be the set of unnormalized subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff proﬁles for game Gt .9 Given any set W t of unnormalized payoff proﬁles, let G (W t ) be the subset consisting of those proﬁles in W t that are not strictly dominated by any other payoff proﬁle in W t . We refer to such payoffs throughout as efﬁcient in W t , or often simply as efﬁcient, with the context providing the reference set. Finally, given a set of (unnormalized) payoff proﬁles W t for game Gt , let Q(W t ) be the set of unnormalized payoff proﬁles for game Gt+1 that can be decomposed on W t . Hence, the payoff proﬁle v lies in Q(W t ) if there exists an action proﬁle α and a function γ : A → W t such that, for all i and ai ∈ Ai , vi = ui (α) + γi (a)α(a) a∈A

≥ u(ai , α−i ) +

γ (ai , a−i )α−i (a−i ),

a−i ∈A−i

8. Wen (1996) extends the analysis to more than two players. τ 9. Hence, E t consists of payoffs of the form τt−1 =0 u .

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A

B

C

A

0, 0

4, 1

0, 0

B

1, 4

0, 0

5, 3

C

0, 0

3, 5

0, 0

Figure 4.6.2 Stage game with two inefﬁcient pure-strategy Nash equilibria.

with a corresponding deﬁnition restricted to pure strategies for inﬁnite games. We will be especially interested in this function in the case in which W t is a subset of E t . The set Q(W t ) will then identify subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs in Gt+1 . Definition Let

4.6.1

Q1 = E 1 and W 1 = G (Q1 ), and deﬁne, for t = 2, . . . , T , Qt = Q(W t−1 ) and W t = G (Qt ). Then R T ≡ T1 W T is the set of renegotiation-proof subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs in the repeated game of length T .

This construction begins at the end of the game by choosing the set of efﬁcient stage-game Nash equilibria as candidates for play in the ﬁnal period. These are the renegotiation-proof equilibria in the ﬁnal period. In the penultimate period, the renegotiation-proof equilibria are those subgame-perfect equilibria that are efﬁcient in the set of equilibria whose ﬁnal-period continuation paths are renegotiation-proof. Continuing, in any period t, the renegotiation-proof equilibria are those subgame-perfect equilibria that are efﬁcient in the set of equilibria whose next-period continuation paths are renegotiation-proof. Working our way back to the beginning of the T period game, we obtain the set R T of normalized renegotiation-proof equilibrium payoffs. We are interested in the limit (under the Hausdorff metric) of R T as T → ∞, if it exists.10 Denote the limit by R ∞ ; this set is closed and nonempty by deﬁnition. Example Consider the stage game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.2. We restrict attention in this example

4.6.1 to pure strategies. Pure-strategy minmax payoffs are 1, imposed by playing A. Proposition 4.4.1 then tells us that the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs approaches F †p = co{(0, 0), (1, 4), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 1)} ∩ {v ∈ R2 : vi > 1, i = 1, 2}

10. The Hausdorff distance between two nonempty compact sets, A and A is given by |a − a |, max min |a − a | . d(A , A ) = max max min a∈A a ∈A

a ∈A a∈A

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u2

u (C , B ) R∞

u ( B, A)

u ( B, C )

u ( A, B) u1 Figure 4.6.3 The set F †p (shaded) for the game in ﬁgure 4.6.2,

along with the limiting set limT →∞ T1 W T = R ∞ of renegotiation-proof equilibrium payoff proﬁles.

for sufﬁciently long ﬁnitely repeated games. Figure 4.6.3 shows the sets F †p and R ∞ . We now examine renegotiation-proof equilibria. We have Q1 = {(1, 4), (4, 1)} and

W 1 = {(1, 4), (4, 1)}.

The set Q2 includes equilibria constructed by preceding either of the elements of W 1 with ﬁrst-period action proﬁles that yield either (1, 4) or (4, 1). In addition, we can play BC in the ﬁrst period followed by BA in the second, with ﬁrst-period deviations followed by AB, or can reverse the roles in this construction. We thus have Q2 = {(2, 8), (6, 7), (5, 5), (7, 6), (8, 2)} and

W 2 = {(2, 8), (6, 7), (7, 6), (8, 2)}.

The sets Qt+1 quickly grow large, and it is helpful to note the following shortcuts in calculating W t+1 . First, W t+1 will never include an element whose ﬁrst-period payoff is (0, 0) (even though Qt+1 may), because this is strictly dominated by an equilibrium whose ﬁrst-period action proﬁle gives payoff (1, 4) or (4, 1), with play then continuing as in the candidate equilibrium. We can thus restrict attention to elements of Qt+1 whose ﬁrst-period payoffs are drawn from the set {(1, 4), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 1)}. Second, there is an equilibrium in Qt+1 whose ﬁrst period payoff is (5, 3) and whose continuation payoff is any element of W t other than the one that minimizes player 2’s payoff, because the latter leaves no opportunity to create the incentives for player 2 to choose C in period 1. Similarly, there is an equilibrium in Qt+1 whose ﬁrst period payoff is (3, 5) and whose

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continuation payoff is any element of W t other than the one that minimizes player 1’s payoff. Third, this in turn indicates that any element of Qt+1 that begins with payoff (4, 1) and continues with a payoff in W t that does not maximize player 1’s payoff will not appear in W t+1 , being strictly dominated by an element of Qt+1 with initial payoff (5, 3) and identical continuation. A similar observation holds for payoffs beginning with (1, 4). Hence, we can simplify the presentation by restricting attention to elements of Qt+1 that begin with payoff (4, 1) only if they continue with the element W t that maximizes player 1’s payoff and similarly to equilibria beginning with (1, 4) only if the continuations maximize player 2’s ˆ t+1 be the subset these three rules identify, we have payoff. Letting Q ˆ 3 = {(3, 12), (9, 12), (10, 11), (11, 7), (7, 11), (11, 10), (12, 9), (12, 3)}, Q and so W 3 = {(3, 12), (9, 12), (10, 11), (11, 10), (12, 9), (12, 3)}. The next iteration gives W 4 = {(12, 17), (13, 16), (14, 15), (15, 14), (16, 13), (17, 12)}. None of these equilibrium payoffs have been achieved by preceding an element of W 3 with either payoff (1, 4) or (4, 1). Instead, the equilibrium payoffs constructed by beginning with these payoffs are inefﬁcient, and are excluded from W 4 . We next calculate W 5 = {(13, 21), (16, 21), (17, 20), (18, 19), (19, 18), (20, 17), (21, 16), (21, 13)}. In this case, the equilibrium payoffs (13, 21) and (21, 13) are obtained by preceding continuation payoffs (12, 17) and (17, 12) with (1, 4) and (4, 1). At our next iteration, we have W 6 = {(19, 26), (20, 25), (21, 24), (22, 23), (23, 22), (24, 21), (25, 20), (26, 19)}. ˆ 6 constructed by beginning with payoffs (1, 4) Here again, all of the equilibria in Q or (4, 1) are strictly dominated. Continuing in this fashion, we ﬁnd that for even values of t ≥ 4, W t = {(v t , v¯ t ), (v t + 1, v¯ t − 1), (v t + 2, v¯ t − 2), . . . , (v¯ t − 1, v t + 1), (v¯ t , v t )}, where v t = 12 + 7 t−4 2

and

v¯ t = 17 + 9 t−4 2 ,

whereas for odd values of t ≥ 4 we have W t = {(v t−1 + 1, v¯ t ), (v t , v¯ t ), (v t + 1, v¯ t − 1), (v t + 2, v¯ t − 2), . . . , (v¯ t − 1, v t + 1), (v¯ t , v t ), (v¯ t , v t−1 + 1)},

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where v t = v t−1 + 4

and v¯ t = v¯ t−1 + 4.

In particular, it is straightforward to verify that for each t ≥ 4, W t+1 is obtained from W t by constructing equilibria that precede the continuation payoff proﬁle from W t that minimizes player 1’s payoff with payoff (1, 4), that precede every other continuation proﬁle with (3, 5), that precede the proﬁle that minimizes player 2’s payoff with (4, 1), and that precede every other with (5, 3), and then eliminating inefﬁcient proﬁles. It is then apparent that we have lim R T = co 72 , 92 , 92 , 72 .

T →∞

Hence, the set of renegotiation-proof equilibrium payoffs converges to a subset of the set of efﬁcient payoffs. ●

Example Consider the game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.4. We again consider pure-strategy equi-

4.6.2 libria. The ﬁrst step in the construction of renegotiation-proof equilibria is straightforward: Q1 = {(2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2)} and

W 1 = {(2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2)}.

We now note that no element of Q2 can begin with a ﬁrst-period payoff of (0, 0). Every such outcome either presents at least one player with a deviation that increases his ﬁrst-period payoff by at least 3 or presents both players with deviations that increase their ﬁrst-period payoffs by at least 2. The continuation payoffs presented by W 1 cannot be arranged to deter all such deviations (nor, as will be apparent from (4.6.1)–(4.6.2), will the continuation payoffs contained in any W t be able to do so). However, Q2 does contain an equilibrium in which the payoffs (7, 7) are attained in the ﬁrst period, followed by (3, 3) in the second,

A

B

C

D

A

0, 0

2, 4

0, 0

8, 0

B

4, 2

0, 0

0, 0

0, 0

C

0, 0

0, 0

3, 3

0, 0

D

0, 8

0, 0

0, 0

7, 7

Figure 4.6.4 Game whose renegotiation-proof payoffs exhibit an oscillating pattern, converging to a single inefﬁcient payoff as the horizon gets large.

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with any ﬁrst-period deviation deterred by a switch to a second-period payoff of (2, 4) or (4, 2), allocating the lower payoff to the ﬁrst-period miscreant. This just sufﬁces to deter such deviations. We then have Q2 = {(4, 8), (5, 7), (6, 6), (7, 5), (8, 4), (10, 10)} and

W 2 = {(10, 10)}.

The ﬁnding that W 2 is a singleton ensures that in the three-period game, ﬁrstperiod play must constitute a stage-game Nash equilibrium, because there is no opportunity to arrange continuation payoffs to punish deviations. Hence, Q3 = {(12, 14), (13, 13), (14, 12)} and

W 3 = {(12, 14), (13, 13), (14, 12)}.

This again opens the possibility for a ﬁrst-period payoff of (7, 7) in the four-period game, giving Q4 = {(14, 18), (15, 17), (16, 16), (17, 15), (18, 14), (20, 20)} and

W 4 = {(20, 20)}.

It should now be apparent that we have an oscillating structure, with W 2t = {(10t, 10t)}

(4.6.1)

and W 2t+1 = {(10t + 2, 10t + 4), (10t + 3, 10t + 3), (10t + 4, 10t + 2)}.

(4.6.2)

It is then immediate that lim R T = {(5, 5)}.

T →∞

●

This last example shows that the set of renegotiation-proof payoffs can be quite sensitive to precisely how many periods remain until the end of the game. Hence, although the backward-induction argument renders the concept of renegotiation proofness unambiguous, it raises just the sort of end-game effects that often motivate a preference for inﬁnite horizon games. When will renegotiation-proof equilibria be efﬁcient? Let bi1 be the largest stagegame equilibrium payoff for player i. Proposition If (b11 , b21 ) ∈ F † and R ∞ exists, then each element of R ∞ is efﬁcient.

4.6.1 Remark Proposition 4.6.1 provides sufﬁcient but not necessary conditions for the set of

4.6.1 renegotiation-proof equilibrium payoffs R T to be nearly efﬁcient for large T . We have not offered conditions ensuring that R ∞ exists, which remains in general an open question. The condition (b11 , b21 ) ∈ F † is not necessary: The coordination game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.5 satisﬁes (b11 , b21 ) = (2, 2) ∈ F † , thus failing the

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L

R

T

2, 2

0, 0

B

0, 0

1, 1

Figure 4.6.5 A coordination game.

conditions of proposition 4.6.1, but R ∞ nonetheless uniquely contains the efﬁcient payoff (2, 2). ◆ The proof requires several lemmas, maintaining the hypotheses of proposition 4.6.1 throughout. Let biT be the best payoff for player i in the set R T . Lemma For player i ∈ {1, 2} and length T ≥ 1,

4.6.1

biT ≥ bi1 . Hence, as the game gets longer, each player’s best renegotiation-proof outcome can never dip below the payoff produced by repeating his best equilibrium payoff in the one-shot game.

Proof Let wiT be the worst payoff for player i in the set R T . We proceed by induction.

When T = 1, we have the tautological bi1 ≥ bi1 . Hence, suppose that biT −1 ≥ bi1 , and consider a game of length T . For convenience, consider player 1. We ﬁrst note that (b11 , w21 ) + (T − 1)(b1T −1 , w2T −1 ) ∈ QT . This statement follows from two observations. First, because no two elements of R t can be strictly ranked (i.e., neither strictly dominates the other), there is an equilibrium payoff in R t giving player 1 his best payoff and player 2 her worst payoff, or (b1t , w2t ), for any t. Second, we can construct an equilibrium of the T period game by playing the stage-game equilibrium featuring payoffs b11 , w21 in the ﬁrst period, followed by the continuation equilibrium of the T − 1 period remaining game that gives payoffs b1T −1 , w2T −1 . Then, because R T consists of the normalized undominated elements of QT , we have T b1T ≥ b11 + (T − 1)b1T −1 ≥ b11 + (T − 1)b11 = T b11 , where the second inequality follows from the induction hypothesis. ■

Let bi and wi be the best and worst payoff for player i in R ∞ . The fact that R ∞ is closed ensures existence. Then the primary intuition behind proposition 4.6.1 is contained in the following.

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Lemma If b1 > w1 and b2 > w2 , then each payoff v ∈ R ∞ with vi > wi , i = 1, 2, is

4.6.2 efﬁcient. The idea behind this proof is that if there is a feasible payoff proﬁle v that strictly dominates one of the payoffs v in R ∞ , then we can append this payoff to the beginning of an “equilibrium” in R ∞ with payoff v , using the worst equilibria in R ∞ for the two players to deter deviations. But this yields a new equilibrium that strictly dominates v , a contradiction. The conclusion is then that there must be no such v and v , that is, that the payoffs in R ∞ must be efﬁcient. To turn this intuition into a proof, we must recognize that R ∞ is the limit of sets of equilibria in ﬁnitely repeated games, and make the translation from “an equilibrium in R ∞ ” to equilibria along this sequence. Proof Observe ﬁrst that the payoff proﬁles (w1 , b2 ) ≡ v 2 and (b1 , w2 ) ≡ v 1 are both

contained in R ∞ . Suppose there is a payoff proﬁle v ∈ R ∞ , with vi > wi , and with another payoff proﬁle v ∈ F † with v strictly dominating v . We now seek a contradiction. Because v ∈ F † strictly dominates v , v must also be strictly dominated by some payoff proﬁle in F † close to v (for which we retain the notation v ) for which there exists a ﬁnite K and (not necessarily distinct) pure-action proﬁles k a 1 , . . . , a K such that K1 K k=1 u(a ) = v . Fix ε > 0 so that vi + ε < vi , j

i, j = 1, 2, j = i,

(4.6.3)

and, for any such ε, ﬁx a length Tε for the ﬁnitely repeated game and an equilibrium σ v (Tε ) such that for i = 1, 2, % % %Ui (σ v (Tε )) − v % < ε , and (4.6.4) i 3 ε Tε > K(M − m) (4.6.5) 3 (where, as usual, Ui (σ ) is the average payoff in Gt of the Gt -proﬁle σ and M (m, respectively) is the maximum (minimum, respectively) stage game payoff), and there is a pair of sequences of equilibria {σ j (T )}T ≥Tε , j = 1, 2, such that, for any T ≥ Tε , i = j , ε j Ui (σ j (T )) < vi + . 3

(4.6.6)

We now recursively deﬁne a sequence of equilibria. The idea is to build a sequence of equilibria for ever longer games, appending in turn each of the actions a 1 , . . . , a K to the beginning of the equilibrium, starting the cycle anew every K periods. Deviations by player i are punished by switching to the equilibrium σ j (T ). We begin with the equilibrium for GTε +1 , which plays a 1 in period 1, followed by σ v (Tε ), with a ﬁrst-period deviation by player i followed by play of σ j (Tε ). Checking that this is a subgame-perfect equilibrium requires showing that ﬁrstperiod deviations are not optimal, for which it sufﬁces that

ε ε j ≥ M + T ε vi + , m + Tε vi − 3 3

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or

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How Long Is Forever?

j Tε vi − vi − 23 ε ≥ M − m,

which is implied by (4.6.3) and (4.6.5). We thus have an equilibrium payoff in QTε +1 , which is either itself contained in R Tε +1 or is strictly dominated by some equilibrium payoff proﬁle in R Tε +1 . Denote by σ (Tε + 1) the equilibrium with payoff proﬁle in R Tε +1 . Note that (Tε + 1)Ui (σ (Tε + 1)) ≥ ui (a 1 ) + Tε Ui (σ v (Tε )). Given an equilibrium σ (Tε + k) with payoffs in R Tε +k for k = 1, . . . , K − 1, consider the proﬁle that plays a k+1 in the ﬁrst period, with deviations by player i punished by continuing with σ j (Tε + k), and with σ (Tε + k) played in the absence of a deviation. To verify that the proﬁle is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, it is enough to show that there are no ﬁrst-period proﬁtable deviations. In doing so, however, we are faced with the difﬁculty that we have little information about the payoff ui (a k+1 ) or the potential beneﬁt from a deviation. We do know that each complete cycle a 1 , . . . , a K has average payoff v (which will prove useful for periods T > Tε + K). Accordingly, we proceed by ﬁrst noting that a lower bound on i’s equilibrium payoff is

ε , (k + 1)m + Tε vi − 3

(4.6.7)

obtained by placing no control on payoffs during the ﬁrst k + 1 periods and then using (4.6.4). Conditions (4.6.3) and (4.6.5) give the ﬁrst inequality in the following, the second follows from the deﬁnition of M, and the third from (4.6.6),

ε ε j (k + 1)m + Tε vi − ≥ (k + 1)M + Tε vi + 3 3

ε j ≥ M + (Tε + k) vi + 3 j > M + (Tε + k)Ui (σ (Tε + k)). Because the ﬁrst term is a lower bound on i’s equilibrium payoff, ﬁrst-period deviations are suboptimal. We thus have an equilibrium payoff proﬁle in QT (ε)+k+1 , which is again either contained in or strictly dominated by some proﬁle in R Tε +k+1 . Denote by σ (Tε + k + 1) the equilibrium with payoff proﬁle in R Tε +k+1 . Note that (Tε + k + 1)Ui (σ (Tε + k + 1)) ≥ ui (a k+1 ) + (Tε + k)Ui (σ v (Tε + k)). This argument yields an equilibrium for T = Tε + K, σ (Tε + K) with payoffs in R Tε +K , and satisfying (Tε + K)Ui (σ (Tε + K)) ≥ Tε Ui (σ v (Tε )) + u(a k ) ≥

Tε vi

−

ε 3

k + Kvi .

Suppose T = Tε + K + k for some ∈ {1, 2, . . . } and k ∈ {1, . . . , K − 1}, and σ (T − 1) is an equilibrium with payoffs in R T −1 , and satisfying k−1 (T − 1)Ui (σ (T − 1)) ≥ Tε vi − 3ε + Kvi + ui (a h ). h=1

(4.6.8)

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Consider the proﬁle that plays a k in the ﬁrst period, with deviations by player i punished by continuing with σ j (T − 1), and with σ (T − 1) played in the absence of a deviation. As before, deviations in the ﬁrst period are unproﬁtable: T Ui (σ (T )) ≥ km + Kvi + Tε vi − 3ε j ≥ M + (T − 1) vi + 3ε > M + (T − 1)Ui (σ j (T − 1)). We thus have an equilibrium payoff proﬁle in QT , which is again either contained in or strictly dominated by some proﬁle in R T . Denote by σ (T ) the equilibrium with payoff proﬁle in R T . Note also that σ (T ) satisﬁes (4.6.8). We thus have two sequences of equilibria, σ v (T ) and σ (T ), each yielding payoffs contained in R T . The average payoff of each element of the former sequence lies within ε/3 of v , whereas the average payoff of the latter eventually strictly dominates v − ε/3. For sufﬁciently small ε, the latter eventually strictly dominates the former, a contradiction. ■

Proving proposition 4.6.1 requires extending lemma 4.6.2 to the boundary cases in which vi = wi . We begin with an intermediate result. Let Mi be the largest stage-game payoff for player i. Lemma Suppose v 1 and v 2 are two proﬁles in R ∞ with vi2 < vi1 and with no v ∈ R ∞

4.6.3 satisfying vi2 < vi < vi1 . Then max{vj : (vi , vj ) ∈ R ∞ } = Mj for = 1, 2.

Proof Without loss of generality, we take i = 1. Under the hypothesis of the lemma, the

set R ∞ has a gap between two equilibria. Because v11 > v12 , max{v2 : (v11 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ } ≤ max{v2 : (v12 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ }. We let a be an action proﬁle with u2 (a) = M2 and derive a contradiction from the assumption that max{v2 : (v11 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ } < M2 . Without loss of generality, we assume v21 = max{v2 : (v11 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ }. Let ε = 14 (v11 − v12 ) and choose Tε so that for all T ≥ Tε , M + T (v12 + ε) < m + T (v11 − 2ε).

(4.6.9)

We consider two cases. First, suppose u1 (a) < v11 − ε, and let λ ∈ (0, 1) and the payoff proﬁle v˜ solve v˜1 = v11 − ε, and

v˜ = λu(a) + (1 − λ)v 1 .

Let η < min{ε, (v˜2 − v21 )/2}. Because v21 = max{v2 : (v1 , v2 ) ∈ R ∞ , v1 ≥ v11 }, R ∞ ∩ V = ∅, where V ≡ {v : v1 ≥ v11 − 2ε, v2 ≥ v21 + η}. Note that v˜ ∈ V . The proof proceeds by showing that, for large T , R T ∩ V = ∅, which sufﬁces for the contradiction in the ﬁrst case. ˜ < η/2. Choose For every v with v 1 − v < η/2,11 λu(a) + (1 − λ)v − v a game length Tη > Tε such that for all T > Tη , the Hausdorff distance between 11. We use · to denote the max or sup norm, reserving | · | for Euclidean distance.

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R T and R ∞ is less than η/2. Hence, for each T > Tη , there are equilibria σ 1 (T ) and σ 2 (T ) with payoffs in R T , such that U (σ i (T )) − v i < η/2. Moreover, there are sequences of game lengths T (n) and integers K(n) < T (n) − Tη , such that & & & & 1 1 & & & T (n) K(n)u(a) + (T (n) − K(n))v − v˜ & < η. For each T (n) in the sequence, we construct an equilibrium with payoffs in R T (n) ∩ V (which is the desired contradiction), using a payoff obtained from playing u(a) for K(n) periods and (approximately) v 1 for the remaining T − K(n) periods. Notice that K(n)/T (n) will be approximately λ, so there is no difﬁculty in requiring T (n) − K(n) > Tη . For each T (n), we recursively construct a sequence of equilibria, beginning with the game of length T (n) − K(n) + 1. In the ﬁrst period, proﬁle a is played, followed by the continuation equilibrium σ 1 (T (n) − K(n)). Player 1 deviations in the ﬁrst period are punished by continuation equilibrium σ 2 (T (n) − K(n)). Player 2 has no incentive to deviate in the ﬁrst period, because a gives her the maximum stage-game payoff M2 , and so can be ignored. This strategy proﬁle is subgame perfect if 1 has no incentive to deviate, which is ensured by (4.6.9). We denote by σ (T (n) − K(n) + 1) an equilibrium whose payoff proﬁle is in R T (n)−K(n)+1 and which either equals or strictly dominates the equilibrium payoff we have just constructed. Given such an equilibrium σ (T (n) − K(n) + m) for some m = 1, . . . , K(n) − 1, construct a proﬁle for GT (n)−K(n)+m+1 by prescribing play of a in the ﬁrst period, followed by σ (T (n) − K(n) + m), with player 1 deviations punished by σ 2 (T (n) − K(n) + m). Condition (4.6.9) again provides the necessary condition for this to be an equilibrium with payoffs in QT (n)−K(n)+m+1 . Denote by σ (T (n) − K(n) + m + 1) an equilibrium with payoffs in R T (n)−K(n)+m+1 that equal or strictly dominate those of the equilibrium we have constructed. Proceeding in this fashion until reaching length T (n) provides an equilibrium with payoffs in R T (n) ; it is straightforward to verify that the payoffs also lie in V . The remaining case, u1 (a) > v11 − ε, is easier to handle, because adding payoff u(a) to an equilibrium increases rather than decreases 1’s payoff and hence makes it less likely to raise incentive problems for player 1. In this case, we can take v˜ to be an arbitrary nontrivial convex combination of M and v 1 and then proceed as before. ■

We now extend lemma 4.6.2 to the boundary cases in which vi = wi . Lemma Let b1 > w1 and b2 > w2 . Then each payoff in v ∈ R ∞ is efﬁcient.

4.6.4 Proof Lemma 4.6.2 establishes the result for any proﬁle that does not give one player

the worst payoff in R ∞ . By hypothesis, R ∞ contains at least two points. Suppose (w1 , w2 ) ∈ R ∞ , and let vj > wj be the smallest player j playoff for which (wi , vj ) ∈ R ∞ . If vj = Mj , then (wi , vj ) is efﬁcient. Suppose vj < Mj . Then, by lemma 4.6.3, there is path in R ∞ between (wi , vj ) and (bi , vj ), for ∞ some vj ≥ wj . Hence, there is a sequence of payoff proﬁles {v n }∞ n=0 in R that

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Renegotiation

converges to (wi , vj ) and, by the deﬁnition of vj , vin > wi and vjn > wj for all sufﬁciently large n. By lemma 4.6.2, each v n is efﬁcient, and hence so is (wi , vj ), as are all points (wi , vj ) ∈ R ∞ with vj > vj . It remains to rule out the possibility that (w1 , w2 ) ∈ R ∞ . We suppose (w1 , w2 ) ∈ R ∞ and argue to a contradiction. Lemma 4.6.3, coupled with the observation that R ∞ can contain no proﬁle that strictly dominates another, ensures that R ∞ consists of two line segments, one joining (w1 , b2 ) with (w1 , w2 ), and one joining (w1 , w2 ) with (b1 , w2 ). Let a be an action proﬁle with u2 (a) = M2 , and ﬁx λ ∈ (0, 1) so that w1 < v˜1 ≡ λu1 (a) + (1 − λ)b1 , and

w2 < v˜2 ≡ λM2 + (1 − λ)w2 .

Let ε = min{v˜1 − w1 , v˜2 − w2 }/4 > 0 and choose Tε so that for all T ≥ Tε , M + T (w1 + ε) < m + T (b1 − 2ε). The proof proceeds by showing that for large T , there are payoffs in R T within ε of v, ˜ contradicting the assumption that (w1 , w2 ) ∈ R ∞ . Because the details of the rest of the argument are almost identical to the proof of lemma 4.6.3, they are omitted. ■

Proof of Proposition 4.6.1 Suppose that (b11 , b21 ) ∈ F † . Lemma 4.6.1 ensures that R ∞

contains one proﬁle whose payoff to player 1 is at least b11 and one whose payoff to player 2 is at least b22 . Because it is impossible to do both simultaneously, it must be that b1 > w1 and b2 > w2 . But then lemma 4.6.4 implies that R ∞ consists of efﬁcient equilibria. ■

The payoffs b11 and b21 are the best stage-game Nash equilibrium payoffs for players 1 and 2. The criterion provided by proposition 4.6.1 is then to ask whether it is feasible (though not necessarily an equilibrium) to simultaneously obtain these payoffs in the stage game. If not, then renegotiation-proof equilibria must be nearly efﬁcient. The payoff proﬁle (b11 , b21 ) is infeasible in example 4.6.1, and hence the limiting renegotiation-proof equilibria are efﬁcient. Example 4.6.2 accommodates such payoffs, thus failing the sufﬁcient condition for efﬁciency, and featuring inefﬁcient limiting payoffs. Remark Benoit and Krishna (1993) extend lemma 4.6.4 to allow one of the inequalities

4.6.2 b1 > w1 and b2 > w2 to be weak. By doing so, they obtain the result that either the set R ∞ is a singleton or it is efﬁcient. The only case that is not covered by our proof is that in which R ∞ is either a vertical or horizontal line segment, to which analogous arguments apply. Example 4.6.2 illustrates the case in which R ∞ is inefﬁcient and is hence a singleton. Example 4.6.1 illustrates a case in which R ∞ contains only efﬁcient proﬁles and contains an interval of such payoffs. There remains the possibility that R ∞ may contain only a single payoff which is efﬁcient. This is the case for the coordination game of ﬁgure 4.6.5. ◆

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E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 4.6.6 The prisoners’ dilemma.

4.6.2 Infinitely Repeated Games We now consider inﬁnite horizon games.12 The point of departure is that a continuation equilibrium is not “credible” if it is strictly dominated by an alternative continuation equilibrium. In making this determination, however, one is not interested in all alternative equilibria, but only in those that themselves survive the credibility test. Definition A subgame-perfect equilibrium (W , w 0 , f, τ ) of the inﬁnitely repeated game is

4.6.2 weakly renegotiation proof if the payoffs at any pair of states are not strictly ranked (i.e., if for all w , w ∈ W , if Vi (w ) > Vi (w ) for some i, then Vj (w ) ≤ Vj (w ) for some j ). Intuitively, if the payoffs beginning with the initial state w strictly dominate the payoffs beginning with the initial state w , then the latter are vulnerable to renegotiation, because the strategy proﬁle (W , w , f, τ ) is both unanimously preferred and part of equilibrium behavior. Weakly renegotiation proof equilibria always exist, because for any stage-game Nash equilibrium, the repeated-game proﬁle that plays this equilibrium after every history is weakly renegotiation proof. Example Consider the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 1.2.1, reproduced in ﬁgure 4.6.6. Grim

4.6.3 trigger is not a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. The strategies following the null history feature effort throughout the remainder of the equilibrium path. The resulting payoffs strictly dominate those produced by the strategies following a history featuring an instance of shirking, which call for perpetual shirking. This may suggest that perpetual defection is the only renegotiation-proof equilibrium of the repeated prisoners’ dilemma, because any other equilibrium must involve a punishment that will be strictly dominated by the original equilibrium. This is the case for strongly symmetric strategy proﬁles, that is, proﬁles in which the two players always choose the same actions, because any punishment must then 12. We illustrate the issues by ﬁrst presenting some results taken from Evans and Maskin (1989) and Farrell and Maskin (1989), followed by an alternative perspective due to Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1993). Bernheim and Ray (1989) comtemporaneously presented closely related work. Similar issues appear in the idea of a coalition-proof equilibrium (Bernheim, Peleg, and Whinston 1987; Bernheim and Whinston 1987), where one seeks equilibria that are robust to alternative choices that are jointly coordinated by the members of a coalition. Here again, one seeks robustness to deviations that are themselves robust, introducing the self-reference that makes an obvious deﬁnition elusive.

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Renegotiation

SE, EE

wSE

ES wEE SE

w0

wES

ES, EE

Figure 4.6.7 Weakly renegotiation-proof strategy proﬁle supporting mutual effort in every period, in the prisoners’ dilemma. Unspeciﬁed transitions leave the state unchanged.

push both players below their original equilibrium payoff. However, asymmetric punishments open other possibilities. Consider the strategy proﬁle in ﬁgure 4.6.7 (and taken from van Damme 1989). Intuitively, these strategies begin with both players choosing effort. If player i shirks, then he must pay a penance of exerting effort while player j shirks. Once i has done so, all is forgiven and the players return to mutual effort. This is a renegotiation-proof subgame-perfect equilibrium, for sufﬁciently high discount factors. Beginning with subgame perfection, we require that neither player prefer to shirk in the ﬁrst period of the game, or the ﬁrst period of a punishment phase. The accompanying incentive constraints are 2 ≥ (1 − δ)[3 + δ(−1)] + δ 2 2, and

(1 − δ)(−1) + δ2 ≥ δ[(1 − δ)(−1) + δ2].

Both are satisﬁed for δ ≥ 1/3. Our next task is to check renegotiation proofness. Continuation payoff proﬁles are (2, 2), (3δ − 1, 3 − δ), and (3 − δ, 3δ − 1). For δ ∈ [1/3, 1), no pair of these proﬁles is strictly ranked. ●

This result extends. The key to constructing nontrivial renegotiation-proof equilibria is to select punishments that reward the player doing the punishing, ensuring that the punisher is not tempted by the prospect of renegotiating. We consider repeated games with two players.13 Proposition Suppose the game has two players and a˜ ∈ A is a strictly individually rational

4.6.2 pure action proﬁle, with v = u(a). ˜ If there exist pure-action proﬁles a 1 and a 2 such that, for i = 1, 2, max ui (ai , aji ) < vi ,

(4.6.10)

uj (a i ) ≥ vj ,

(4.6.11)

ai ∈Ai

and

then, for sufﬁciently large δ, there exists a pure-strategy weakly renegotiationproof equilibrium with payoffs v. If v is the payoff of a pure-strategy weakly 13. An extension to more than two players remains to be done.

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renegotiation-proof equilibrium, then there exist pure actions a 1 and a 2 satisfying the weak inequality version of (4.6.10) and satisfying (4.6.11). The action proﬁles a 1 and a 2 allow us to punish one player while rewarding the other. In the case of the prisoners’dilemma of ﬁgure 4.6.6, letting a 1 = ES and a 2 = SE ensures that for any payoff vector v ∈ F ∗ , we have, for i = 1 in (4.6.10)–(4.6.11) max u1 (a1 , S) = 0 < v1

a1 ∈{E,S}

u2 (E, S) = 3 ≥ v2 .

and

Hence, any feasible, strictly individually rational payoff vector can be supported by a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium in the prisoners’ dilemma. Notice that in the case of the prisoners’ dilemma, a single pair of action proﬁles a 1 and a 2 provide the punishments needed to support any payoff v ∈ F ∗ . In general, this need not be the case, with different equilibrium payoffs requiring different punishments. Proof of Proposition 4.6.2 We prove the sufﬁciency of (4.6.10)–(4.6.11). For necessity,

see Farrell and Maskin (1989), whose proof of necessity in their theorem 1 holds for our class of equilibria and games (i.e., pure-strategy equilibria in games with unobservable mixtures). The equilibrium strategy proﬁle is a simple strategy proﬁle (deﬁnition 2.6.1), σ (a(0), a(1), a(2)), where a(0) is the constant outcome path in which a˜ is played in every period, and a(i), i = 1, 2, is i’s punishment outcome path of L periods of a i followed by a return to a˜ in every period (where L is to be determined). An automaton for this proﬁle has a set of states {w(0)} ∪ {w(i, k), i = 1, 2, k = 1, . . . , L}, initial state w(0), output function a, ˜ if w = w(0), f (w) = i a , if w = w(i, k), k = 1, . . . , L, and transitions τ (w(0), a) =

w(i, 1), if ai = a˜ i , a−i = a˜ −i ,

w(0),

otherwise,

and τ (w(i, k), a) =

w(j, 1),

i , if aj = aji , a−j = a−j

w(i, k + 1), otherwise,

where we take w(i, L + 1) to be w(0). Choose L so that L mini (vi − ui (a i )) ≥ M − mini vi , where M is, as usual, the largest stage game payoff.

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h

H

2, 3

0, 2

L

3, 0

1, 1

Figure 4.6.8 The product-choice game.

Standard arguments show that for sufﬁciently high δ, no one-shot deviations are proﬁtable from w(0) nor by player i in any state w(i, k) (see the proof of proposition 3.3.1). It is immediate that player i has no incentive to deviate from punishing player j , because i is rewarded for punishing j . It is also straightforward to verify Vi (w(i, k)) < Vi (w(i, k + 1)) < vi ≤ Vi (w(j, k + 1)) ≤ Vi (w(j, k)), and so the proﬁle is weakly renegotiation proof. ■

Example Consider the product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1, reproduced in ﬁgure 4.6.8.

4.6.4 Suppose both players are long-lived. For sufﬁciently large discount factors, we have seen that equilibria exist in which Hh is played in every period. However, it is clear that no such equilibrium can be renegotiation proof. In particular, this equilibrium gives player 2 the largest feasible payoff in the stage game. There is then no way to punish player 1, who faces the equilibrium incentive problem, without also punishing player 2. If there exists an equilibrium in which Hh is always played, then this equilibrium path must yield payoffs strictly dominating some of its own punishments, precluding renegotiation proofness. ●

Remark Public correlation In the presence of a public correlating device, there is an ex ante

4.6.3 and an ex post notion of weak renegotiation proofness. In the latter, renegotiation is possible after the realization of the correlating device, whereas in the former, renegotiation is only possible before the realization. The analysis easily extends to ex ante (but not to ex post) weak renegotiation proofness with public correlation and allows a weakening of the sufﬁcient conditions (4.6.10)–(4.6.11) by replacing a, ˜ a 1 and a 2 with correlated action proﬁles. In doing so, we require (4.6.10) to hold for every realization of the public correlating device, whereas (4.6.11) is required only in expectation. Farrell and Maskin (1989) allow a 1 and a 2 to be (independent) mixtures and allow v to be the payoff of any publicly correlated action proﬁle. They then show that payoff v can be obtained from a deterministic sequence of (possibly mixed but uncorrelated) proﬁles, using an argument similar to that of section 3.7 but assuming observable mixed strategies and complicated by the need to show weak renegotiation proofness. ◆ Every feasible, strictly individually rational payoff in the prisoners’ dilemma can be supported as the outcome of a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium, including

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A

B

C

D

A

4, 2

z, z

z, 0

z, z

B

z, z

0, 3

z, 0

z, z

C

5, z

0, z

3, 0

0, z

D

z, z

z, z

z, 5

2, 4

Figure 4.6.9 Stage game for repeated game in which a strongly renegotiation proof equilibrium does not exist, where z is negative and large in absolute value.

the payoffs provided by persistent shirking and the payoff provided by persistent effort. Why isn’t the former equilibrium disrupted by the opportunity to renegotiate to the latter? The difﬁculty is that weak renegotiation proofness ensures that no two continutation paths, that potentially arise as part of a single equilibrium, are strictly ranked. However, our intuition is that renegotiation-proofness should also restrict attention to a set of equilibria with the property that no two equilibria in the set are strictly ranked. Toward this end, Farrell and Maskin (1989) offer: Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is strongly renegotiation proof if it is weakly renegotiation

4.6.3 proof and no continuation payoff is strictly dominated by the payoff in another weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. The strategy proﬁle shown in ﬁgure 4.6.7 is strongly renegotiation proof. The following example, adapted from Bernheim and Ray (1989), shows that strongly renegotiation-proof equilibria need not exist. Example We consider the game shown in ﬁgure 4.6.9. We let δ = 1/5 and consider only

4.6.5 pure-strategy equilibria. When doing so, it sufﬁces for nonexistence that z < −5/4.14 The minmax values for each agent are 0. The ﬁrst observation is that no pure-strategy equilibrium can ever play an action proﬁle that does not lie on the diagonal of the stage game. Equivalently, any pure equilibrium must be strongly symmetric. Off the diagonal, at least one player receives a stage-game payoff of z and hence a repeated game payoff at most (1 − δ)z + δ5. Given δ = 1/5 and z < −5/4, this is less than the minmax value of 0, a contradiction. The strategy proﬁle that speciﬁes BB after every history is weakly renegotiation proof, as is the proﬁle that speciﬁes CC after each history, with payoffs (0, 3) and 14. Bernheim and Ray (1989) note that the argument extends to mixed equilibria if z is sufﬁciently large and negative. The key is that in that case, any equilibrium mixtures must place only very small probability on outcomes off the diagonal, allowing reasoning similar to that of the pure-strategy case to apply.

4.6

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139

Renegotiation

(3, 0) respectively. Similarly, paths that vary between BB and CC can generate convex combinations of (0, 3) and (3, 0) as outcomes of weakly renegotiationproof equilibria. We now consider an equilibrium in which AA is played. Such an equilibrium exists only if we can ﬁnd continuation payoffs γ (AA) and γ (CA) from the interval [0, 4] such that (1 − δ)4 + δγ1 (AA) ≥ (1 − δ)5 + δγ1 (CA). Given δ = 1/5, this inequality can be satisﬁed only if γ1 (AA) = 4 and γ1 (CA) = 0. Hence, there exists a unique equilibrium outcome in which AA is played, which features AA in every period and with deviations followed by a continuation value (0, 3). Similarly, there exists an equilibrium in which DD is played in every period, with deviations followed by continuation values (3, 0). Both equilibria are weakly renegotiation proof. It is now immediate that there are no strongly renegotiation-proof equilibria. Any equilibrium that features only actions BB and CC is strictly dominated either by the equilibrium that always plays AA or the one that always plays DD. However, each of the latter includes a punishment phase that always plays either BB or CC, ensuring that the latter equilibria are also not strongly renegotiation proof. ●

Strongly renegotiation-proof equilibria fail to exist because of a lack of efﬁcient punishments. Sufﬁcient conditions for existence are straightforward when F = F † , as is often (but not always, see ﬁgure 3.1.3) the case when actions sets are continua.15 First, note that taking a˜ in proposition 4.6.2 to be efﬁcient gives sufﬁcient conditions for the existence of an efﬁcient weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium.16 Proposition Suppose F = F † and an efﬁcient (in F † ) pure-strategy weakly renegotiation-

4.6.3 proof equilibrium exists. Let v i be the payoff of the efﬁcient weakly renegotiationproof equilibrium that minimizes player i’s payoff over the set of such equilibria. If there are multiple such equilibria, choose the one maximizing j ’s payoff. For each i, assume there is an action proﬁle a i satisfying max ui (ai , aji ) < vii ai

and

uj (a i ) ≥ vji .

Then for every efﬁcient action proﬁle a ∗ with ui (a ∗ ) ≥ vii for each i, there is a δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) there is a pure-strategy strongly renegotiation-proof equilibrium yielding payoffs u(a ∗ ). 15. In the presence of public correlation and ex ante weak renegotiation proofness (remark 4.6.3), we can drop the assumption that F = F † . Farrell and Maskin (1989) do not assume F = F † or the existence of public correlation (but see remark 4.6.3). 16. Evans and Maskin (1989) show that efﬁcient weakly renegotiation-proof equlibria generically exist, though again assuming observable mixtures.

140

Chapter 4

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How Long Is Forever?

Proof Let aˇ i be a pure-action proﬁle with u(aˇ i ) = v i (recall F = F † ). The equi-

librium strategy proﬁle is, again, a simple strategy proﬁle (deﬁnition 2.6.1), σ (a(0), a(1), a(2)), where a(0) is the constant outcome path in which a ∗ is played in every period, and a(i), i = 1, 2, is i’s punishment outcome path of L periods of a i followed by the perpetual play of aˇ i , where L satisﬁes L mini (ui (a ∗ ) − ui (a i )) ≥ M − mini ui (a ∗ ), and M is the largest stage game payoff. As in the proof of proposition 4.6.2, standard arguments show that for sufﬁciently high δ, no one-shot deviations are proﬁtable (see the proof of proposition 3.3.1). It thus remains to show that none of the continuation equilibria induced by this strategy proﬁle are strictly dominated by other weakly renegotiation-proof equilibria. There are ﬁve types of continuation path to consider. Three of these are immediate. The continuation paths consisting of repeated stage-game action proﬁles with payoffs u(a ∗ ) and v i cannot be strictly dominated, because each of these payoff proﬁles is by construction efﬁcient. The remaining two cases are symmetric, and we present the argument for only one of them. Consider a continuation path in which player 1 is being punished, consisting of between 1 and L initial periods in which a 1 is played, followed by the perpetual play of aˇ 1 . Let v˜ be the payoff from this path. Given the properties of a 1 , we know that v˜1 < v11

and

v˜2 ≥ v21 .

Suppose vˆ is a weakly renegotiation-proof payoff proﬁle dominating v. ˜ Then, of course, we must have vˆ2 > v˜2 ≥ v21 . Now suppose vˆ1 > v11 . Then vˆ strictly dominates v 1 , contradicting the assumption that v 1 is an efﬁcient weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. Suppose next vˆ1 = v11 . Then vˆ must be efﬁcient and, because vˆ2 > v21 , this contradicts the deﬁnition of v 1 . Suppose ﬁnally that vˆ1 < v11 (and hence is inefﬁcient, because we otherwise have a contradiction to the choice of v 1 as the efﬁcient weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium that minimizes player 1’s payoff). Let (v1 , vˆ2 ) be efﬁcient. Then applying the necessity portion of proposition 4.6.2 to v, ˆ using † 1 2 F = F to obtain aˆ , and recalling the properties of a , we have max u1 (a1 , aˆ 21 ) ≤ vˆ1 < v1 ,

a1 ∈A1

u2 (aˆ 1 ) ≥ vˆ2 , max u2 (a12 , a2 ) ≤ v22 < vˆ2 ,

a2 ∈A2

and

u1 (a 2 ) ≥ v12 ≥ v1 .

Then aˆ 1 , a 2 and (v1 , vˆ2 ) satisfy the sufﬁcient conditions from proposition 4.6.2 for there to exist a pure-strategy weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium with payoff (v1 , vˆ2 ). By construction, this payoff is efﬁcient. This contradicts the efﬁciency of v 1 (if v1 > v11 ) or the other elements of the deﬁnition of v 1 (if v1 ≤ v11 ). ■

4.6

■

141

Renegotiation

Renegotiation-proof equilibria are so named because they purportedly survive any attempt by the players to switch to another equilibrium. In general, the players will have different preferences over the possible alternative equilibria, giving rise to a bargaining problem. The emphasis on efﬁciency in renegotiation proofness reﬂects a presumption that the players could agree on replacing an equilibrium with another that gives everyone a higher payoff. However, given the potential conﬂicts of interest, this belief in agreement may be optimistic. Might not a deal on a superior equilibrium be scuttled by player i’s attempt to secure an equilibrium that is yet better for him? It is not clear we can answer without knowing more about how bargaining proceeds. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1993) take an alternative approach to renegotiation proofness that focuses on the implied bargaining. Their view is that if player i can point to an alternative equilibrium in which every player (including i) earns a higher payoff after every history than i currently earns, then i can make a compelling case for switching to the alternative equilibrium. For an equilibrium σ deﬁne vi (σ ) = inf {Ui (σ |ht ) : ht ∈ H }. Definition An equilibrium σ ∗ is a consistent bargaining equilibrium if there is no alternative

4.6.4 subgame-perfect equilibrium σ with mini {vi (σ )} > mini {vi (σ ∗ )}.

Hence, the consistent bargaining criterion rejects an equilibrium if it could reach a continuation game with one player whose continuation payoff is lower than every continuation payoff in some alternative equilibrium. Notice the comparisons embedded in this notion are no longer based on dominance. It sufﬁces to reject an equilibrium that it fails the test for one player, though this player must make comparisons with every other player’s payoffs in the proposed alternative equilibrium. A player for whom there is such an alternative equilibrium promising a higher payoff in every circumstance is viewed as having a winning case for abandoning the current one. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1993) apply this concept only to symmetric games. Symmetry is not required for this concept to be well deﬁned or to exist, but helps in interpreting the payoff comparisons across players as natural comparisons the players might make. Example Consider the battle of the sexes game of ﬁgure 4.6.10. With the help of a public

4.6.6 correlating device, we can construct an equilibrium in which TL and BR are each played with equal probability in each period, for expected payoffs of (2, 2). It is also clear that there is no equilibrium with a higher total payoff, so this equilibrium is the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium. We use this game to explain the need for a comparison across players’ payoffs in this notion. Suppose that we suggested that an equilibrium σ ∗ should

L

R

T

1, 3

0, 0

B

0, 0

3, 1

Figure 4.6.10 A battle-of-the-sexes game.

142

Chapter 4

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How Long Is Forever?

be a consistent bargaining equilibrium if there is no alternative subgame-perfect equilibrium σ and player i with vi (σ ) > vi (σ ∗ ). Then notice that there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium σ 1 in which BR is played after every history, and hence v1 (σ 1 ) = 3. There exists another equilibrium σ 2 that features TL after every history and hence v2 (σ 2 ) = 3. Given the infeasibility of payoffs (3, 3), this ensures that there would be no consistent bargaining equilibrium. This result illustrates the intuition surrounding a consistent bargaining equilibrium. A player i has a persuasive objection to an equilibrium, not simply when there is an alternative equilibrium under which that player invariably fares better, but when there is an alternative under which every player invariably fares better than i currently does. In the former case, the player is arguing that he would prefer an equilibrium in which things work out better for him, whereas in the latter he can argue that he is being asked to endure an outcome that no one need endure. ●

Example We consider the three versions of the prisoners’ dilemmas, shown in ﬁgure 4.6.11.

4.6.7 The ﬁrst two are familiar, and the third makes it most attractive to shirk when the opponent is exerting effort. Consider an equilibrium path with a value vi to player i. We use the possibility of public correlation to assume that this value is received in every period, simplifying the calculations. Let i be the increase in player i’s current payoff that can be achieved by deviating from equilibrium play. Restrict attention to simple strategies, and let v˜i be the value of the resulting punishment. We can further assume that this punishment takes the form of a ﬁnite number of periods of mutual shirking, followed by a return to the equilibrium path. This ensures that the continuation payoff provided by the punishment is lowest in its initial period, and that the only nontrivial incentive constraint is the condition that play along the equilibrium path be optimal, which can be rearranged to give v˜i ≤ vi −

1−δ i . δ

Let us focus on the case of δ = 1/2, so that the incentive constraint becomes v˜i ≤ vi − i .

E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

E

S −1, 3

E

3, 3

0, 0

S

4, −1

S

E

−1, 4

E

2, 2

1, 1

S

4, −1

S −1, 4 0, 0

Figure 4.6.11 Three prisoners’ dilemma games. In the left game, the

incentives to shirk rather than exert effort are independent of the opponent’s action. The incentive to shirk is strongest when the opponent shirks in the middle game, and strongest when the opponent exerts effort in the right game.

4.6

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143

Renegotiation

The search for a consistent bargaining equilibrium thus becomes the search for an equilibrium featuring a pair of values (vi , v˜i ) with the property that (because v˜i ≤ vi ) no other equilibrium features continuation values that all exceed v˜i . Now consider the prisoners’ dilemma in the left panel of ﬁgure 4.6.11. Here, i is ﬁxed at 1, independently of the opponents’ actions. This ﬁxes the relationship between vi and v˜i , for any equilibrium. Finding a consistent bargaining equilibrium now becomes a matter of ﬁnding the equilibrium with the largest value of v˜i . Given the ﬁxed relationship between vi and v˜i , this is equivalent to ﬁnding the equilibrium that maximizes vi . This calls for permanent effort and equilibrium payoffs (2, 2). This is the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium outcome in this game. In the middle game, the incentives to shirk now depend on the equilibrium actions, so that i is no longer ﬁxed. Finding a consistent bargaining equilibrium again requires ﬁnding the equilibrium with the largest value of v˜i . Moreover, i is larger the more likely one’s opponent is to shirk. This reinforces the fact that maximizing v˜i calls for maximizing vi . As a result, a consistent bargaining equilibrium again requires that vi be maximized, and hence the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium again calls for payoffs (2, 2). In the right game, the incentives to shirk are strongest when the opponent exerts effort. Hence, i becomes smaller the more likely is the opponent to shirk. It is then no longer the case that the equilibrium maximizing v˜i , and hence providing our candidate for a consistent bargaining equilibrium, is also the equilibrium that maximizes vi . Instead, the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium here calls for the two players to attach equal probability (again, with the help of a public correlating device) to ES and SE. Notice that equilibrium is inefﬁcient, with expected payoffs of 3/2 rather than the expected payoffs (2, 2) provided by mutual effort. To see that this is the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium, notice that the incentive constraint for the proposed equilibrium must deter shirking when the public correlation has selected the agent in question to exert effort and the opponent to shirk. A deviation to shirking under these circumstances brings a payoff gain of 1, so that the punishment value v˜i must satisfy v˜i ≤ vi − i =

3 2

− 1 = 12 .

The proposed equilibrium thus has continuation values of 3/2 and 1/2. Any equilibrium featuring higher continuation values must sometimes exhibit mutual effort. Here, the incentive constraint is v˜i ≤ vi − i = vi − 2. Because this incentive constraint must hold for both players, at least one player must face a continuation payoff of 0. This ensures that no such equilibrium can yield a collection of continuation values which are all strictly larger than 1/2. As a result, the equilibrium that mixes over outcomes SE and ES is the unique consistent bargaining equilibrium. ●

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5 Variations on the Game

An important motivation for work with repeated games, as with all economic models, is that the repeated game is an analytically convenient model of a more complicated reality. This chapter explores some variations of the canonical repeated-game model in which the strategic interactions are not literally identical from period to period.

5.1

Random Matching

We begin with a setting in which every player shares some of the characteristics of a short-lived player and some of a long-lived player.1 Our analysis is based on the familiar prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 1.2.1, reproduced in ﬁgure 5.1.1. The phrase “repeated prisoners’ dilemma” refers to a single pair of long-lived players who face each other in each period. Here, we study a model with an even number M ≥ 4 of players. In each period, the M players are matched into M/2 pairs to play the game. Matchings are independent across periods, with each possible conﬁguration of pairs equally likely in each period. Each matched pair then plays the prisoners’ dilemma, at which point we move to the next period with current matches dissolved and the players entered into a new matching process. We refer to such a game as a matching game. A common interpretation is a market where people are matched to complete bilateral trades in which they may either act in good faith or cheat. Players in the matching game discount their payoffs at rate δ and maximize the average discounted value of payoffs. In any given match, both players appear to be effectively short-lived, in the sense that they play one another once and then depart. Were this literally the end of the story, we would have a collection of ordinary prisoners’ dilemma stage games with the obvious (and only) equilibrium outcome of shirking at every opportunity. However, the individual interactions in the matching game are not perfectly isolated. With positive probability, each pair of matched players has a subsequent rematch. Given enough time, the matching process will almost certainly bring them together again. But if the population is sufﬁciently large, the probability of a rematch in the near future will be sufﬁciently small as to have a negligible effect on current incentives. In that event, mutual shirking appears to be the only equilibrium outcome. 1. The basic model is due to Kandori (1992a). Our elaboration is due to Ellison (1994), which allows for a public correlating device.

145

146

Chapter 5

■

Variations on the Game

E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 5.1.1 Prisoners’ dilemma.

5.1.1 Public Histories There may still be hope for outcomes other than mutual shirking. Much hinges on the information players have about others’ past play. We ﬁrst consider the public-history matching game, in which in every period each player observes the actions played in every match. A period t history is then a t-tuple of outcomes, each of which consists of an (M/2)-tuple of pairs of actions. Because histories are public, just as in the standard perfect-monitoring repeated game, every history leads to a subgame. Consequently, the appropriate equilibrium concept is, again, subgame perfection. Proposition An outcome a = (a 0 , a 1 , . . .) ∈ A∞ is an equilibrium outcome in the repeated

5.1.1 prisoners’ dilemma if and only if there is an equilibrium in the public-history matching game in which action proﬁle a t is played by every pair of matched players in period t. The idea of the proof is that any deviation from a in the public-history matching game can prompt the most severe punishments possible from the repeated game. This can be done despite the fact that partners are scrambled each period, because histories are public. Because deviations from outcome a are deterred by the punishments of the equilibrium supporting outcome a in the repeated game, they are also deterred by the (possibly more severe) punishments of the matching game. This is essentially the argument lying behind optimal penal codes (section 2.6.1). Though interest often focuses on the prisoners’ dilemma, the argument holds in general for two-player games. Proof Let a be an equilibrium outcome in the repeated prisoners’ dilemma and σ the

corresponding equilibrium proﬁle. Let σ be a strategy proﬁle that duplicates σ except that at any history ht = at , σ prescribes that every player shirk. Because perpetual mutual shirking is an optimal punishment in the prisoners’ dilemma, from Corollary 2.6.1, σ is also a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game with outcome a. We now deﬁne a strategy proﬁle σ for the public-history matching game. Apair of players matched in period t chooses action proﬁle a t if every pair of matched players in every period τ < t has chosen proﬁle a τ . Otherwise, the players shirk. Notice that the publicness of the histories in the public-history matching game makes this strategy proﬁle feasible. Notice also that these strategies accomplish the goal of producing proﬁle a t in each match in each period t. It remains to show that the proposed strategies are a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the public-history matching game.

5.1

■

Random Matching

147

Consider a player in the public-history matching game, in period t, with a τ having been played in every match in every period τ < t. Let the resulting history be called hˆ t and let ht be the corresponding history (i.e., at ), in the repeated game. Then we need only note that the optimality of action proﬁle a t in the matching game is equivalent to Ui (σ |ht ) ≥ Ui (σi , σ−i |ht ), for all repeated-game strategies σi , where Ui is the repeated-game payoff function. This is simply the observation that the player faces precisely the same future play, with or without a deviation, in the matching game as in the repeated game. The optimality conditions for the repeated game thus imply the corresponding optimality conditions for the full-information matching game. Similar reasoning gives the converse. ■

There is thus nothing special about having the same players matched with each other in each period of a repeated game, as long as sufﬁcient information about previous play is available. What matters in the matching game is that player i be punished in the future for current deviations, regardless of whether the punishment is done by the current partner or someone else. In the equilibrium we have constructed, a deviation from the equilibrium path is observed by all and trips everyone over to the punishment. Having one’s partner enter the punishment sufﬁces to deter the deviation in the repeated game, and having the remainder of the population do so sufﬁces in the matching game. Why would someone against whom a player has never played punish the player? Because it is an equilibrium to do so, and failing to do so brings its own punishment. 5.1.2 Personal Histories We now consider the personal-history game. We consider the extreme case in which at the beginning of period t, player i’s history consists only of the actions played in each of the previous t matches in which i has been involved. Player i does not know the identities of the partners in the earlier matches, nor does he know what has transpired in any other match.2 Hence, a period t personal history is an element of At , where A = {EE, SE, ES, SS}. In analyzing this game, we cannot simply study subgame-perfect equilibria, because there are no nontrivial subgames, and so subgame perfection is no more restrictive than Nash. The appropriate notion of sequential rationality in this setting is sequential equilibrium. Though originally introduced for ﬁnite extensive form games by Kreps and Wilson (1982b), the notion has a straightforward intuitive description in this setting: A strategy proﬁle is a sequential equilibrium if, after every personal history, player i is best responding to the behavior of the other players, given beliefs over the personal histories of the other players that are “consistent” with the personal history that player i has observed. We are interested in the possible existence of a sequential equilibrium of the personal-history game in which players always exert effort. Figure 5.1.2 displays the candidate equilibrium strategies, where q ∈ [0, 1] is to be determined; denote the 2. In particular, player i does not know if he has been previously matched with his current partner.

148

Chapter 5

■

Variations on the Game

EE

ES , SE , SS

wE w

(q ) (1 − q )

wS

0

(1 − q ) (q)

Figure 5.1.2 The individual automaton describing a single player i’s strategy σˆ i

for the personal history game. Transitions not labeled by a strategy proﬁle occur for all strategy proﬁles. Transitions labeled by (·) are random and are conditioned on ω, the realization of a public random variable, returning the automaton to state wE if ω > q; the probability of that transition is 1 − q.

strategy proﬁle by σˆ . In contrast to the other automata we use in part I but in a preview of our work with private strategies and private-monitoring games, an automaton here describes the strategy of a single player rather than a strategy proﬁle, with one such automaton associated with each player (see remark 2.3.1). The actions governing the transitions in the automaton are those of the player and the partner in the current stage game. The transitions are also affected by a public random variable, which allows the players in the population to make perfectly correlated transitions. Each player’s automaton begins in state wE , where the player exerts effort. If the player or the player’s partner shirks, then a transition is made to state wS , and to shirking, unless the realization ω ∈ [0, 1] of the uniformly distributed public random variable is larger than q, in which case no transition is made. The automaton remains in state wS until at some future date ω > q. The public randomization thus ensures that in every period, there is probability 1 − q that every player returns to state wE of their automaton. With probability q, every player proceeds with a transition based on his personal history. Under these strategies, any deviation to shirking sets off a contagion of further shirking. In the initial stages of this contagion, the number of shirkers approximately doubles every period (as long as ω < q), as the relatively small number of shirkers tend to meet primarily partners who have not yet been contaminated by shirking. We think of the public correlation device as occasionally (and randomly) pushing a “reset button” that ends the contagion. Consider ﬁrst a player who has observed only mutual effort. Then, he is in state wE . Because he does not observe the personal history of his current match, he also does not know her current state. However, the only belief about her personal history that is consistent with his personal history and the proﬁle σˆ is that she also has observed only mutual effort and so is in state wE . Suppose now that a player has observed his partner in the last period play S, and ω > q. Then again, because ω is public, player i must believe that every other players’ current state is wE . On the other hand, if ω ≤ q, then the player’s current state is wS . If the previous period was the initial period, sequentiality requires player i to believe that his period 0 partner unilaterally deviated, and at the end of the period 0, all players except player i and his period 0 partner are in state wE , whereas the remaining two

5.1

■

149

Random Matching

players are in state wS . Consequently, in period 1, he is rematched with his previous partner with probability 1/(M − 1), and with complementary probability, is matched with a player in state wE . However, if this observation occurs much later in the game, sequentiality would allow player i to believe that the original deviation occurred in period 0 and had spread throughout most of the population. At the same time, if in every period after observing S, ω ≤ q, player i must believe that at least one other player has observed a personal history leaving that player in state wS . As will be clear from the proof, the most difﬁcult incentive constraint to satisfy is that player i, in state wS , shirk when he believes that exactly one other player is in state wS . Proposition There exists δ < 1 such that, for any δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a value of q = q(δ)

5.1.2 such that σˆ (the proﬁle of strategies in ﬁgure 5.1.2) is a sequential equilibrium of the personal-history matching game. Proof Let V (S , δ, q) be the expected value of a player i ∈ S ⊂ {1, . . . , M} when the

players in S are in state wS and the remaining players are in state wE , given discount factor δ and probability q(δ) = q. Given the uniformity of the matching process, this value depends only on the number of players in state wS and is independent of their identities and the identity of player i ∈ S . We take i to be player 1 unless otherwise speciﬁed and often take S to be Sk ≡ {1, . . . , k}. We begin by identifying two sufﬁcient conditions for the proposed strategy proﬁle to be an equilibrium. The ﬁrst condition is that player 1 prefer not to shirk when in state wE . Player 1 then believes every other player (including his partner) to also be in state wE , as speciﬁed by the equilibrium strategies, either because no shirking has yet occurred or because no shirking has occurred since the last realization ω > q. This gives an incentive constraint of 2 ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ[(1 − q)2 + qV (S2 , δ, q)], or 1≤

δq [2 − V (S2 , δ, q)]. 1−δ

(5.1.1)

The second condition is that player 1 must prefer not to exert effort while in state wS . Because exerting effort increases the likelihood of effort from future partners, this constraint is not trivial. In this case, player 1 cannot be certain of the state of his partner and may be uncertain as to how many other players are in state wS of their automata. Notice, however, that if player 1’s partner shirks in the current interaction, then exerting effort only reduces player 1’s current payoff without retarding the contagion to shirking and hence is suboptimal. If there are to be any gains from exerting effort when called on to shirk, they must come against a partner who exerts effort. If player 1 shirks against a partner who exerts effort, the number of players in state wS next period (conditional on ω < q) is larger by 1 (player 1’s partner) than it would be if player 1 exerts effort. Because we are concerned with the situation in which player 1 is in state wS and meets a partner in state wE , there must be at least two players in the population in state wS (player

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Chapter 5

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Variations on the Game

1 and his previous partner). Hence, it sufﬁces for shirking to be optimal that, for all k ≥ 2,3 (1 − δ)3 + δ[(1 − q)2 + qV (Sk+1 , δ, q)] ≥ (1 − δ)2 + δ[(1 − q)2 + qV (Sk , δ, q)], where Sk is the set of players in state wS next period if player 1 exerts effort, and Sk+1 is the set in state wS if player 1 shirks. Rearranging, this is 1≥

δq [V (Sk , δ, q) − V (Sk+1 , δ, q)]. 1−δ

(5.1.2)

We now proceed in two steps. We ﬁrst show that there exists δ such that for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), we can ﬁnd a q(δ) ∈ [0, 1] such that (5.1.1) holds with equality, that is, players are indifferent between shirking and exerting effort on the induced path. Note that in that case, (5.1.2) holds for k = 1, because V (S1 , δ, q) = 2 is the value to a player when all other players are in state wE , and the player deviates to S. We then show that if (5.1.2) holds for any value k, it also holds strictly for any larger value k . In particular, when a player is indifferent between shirking and exerting effort on the induced path, after deviating, that player now strictly prefers to shirk because the earlier deviation has triggered the contagion. Step 1. Fix q = 1 and consider how the right side of (5.1.1) varies in the discount

factor, δ [2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)] = 0, δ→0 (1 − δ) δ [2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)] = ∞. lim δ→1 (1 − δ) lim

and

The ﬁrst equality follows from noting that V (S2 , δ, 1) ∈ [0, 3] for all δ. The second follows from noting that V (S2 , δ, 1) approaches 0 as δ approaches 1, because under σˆ with q = 1, eventually every player is in state wS , and hence the expected stage-game payoffs converge to 0, at a rate independent of δ. Because δ (1−δ) [2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)] is continuous, there is then (by the intermediate value δ [2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)] = 1, and hence at which theorem) a value of δ at which 1−δ (5.1.1) holds with equality when q = 1. Denote this value by δ, and then take q(δ) = 1. Summarizing, 1=

δ q(δ)[2 − V (S2 , δ, 1)]. (1 − δ)

(5.1.3)

We now show that (5.1.1) holds for every δ ∈ (δ, 1), for suitable q(δ). We ﬁrst acquire the tools for summarizing key aspects of a history of play. Fix a period and a history of play, and consider the continuation game induced by that history. Let ξ be a speciﬁcation of which players are matched in the period 0 (of the continuation 3. In fact, it would sufﬁce to have k ≥ 3 because there are at least three players in state wS next period (including the current partner of the other shirker). However, as will become clear, it is convenient to work with the stronger requirement, k ≥ 2.

5.1

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151

Random Matching

game) and in each future period. Let i(j, t, ξ ) denote the partner of player j in period t under the matching ξ . We now recursively construct a sequence of sets, beginning with an arbitrary set S ⊂ {1, . . . , M}. For any set of players S , let T0 (S , ξ ) = {1, . . . , M} \ S Tt+1 (S , ξ ) = {j ∈ Tt (S , ξ ) | i(j, t, ξ ) ∈ Tt (S , ξ )}.

and

In our use of this construction, S is the set of players who enter the continuation game in state wS , with the remaining players in state wE . The state Tt (S , ξ ) then identiﬁes the players that are still in state wE of their automata in period t, given that the public reset to state wE has not occurred. Deﬁne V (S , δ, q | ξ ) to be the continuation value of player i ∈ S when the players in set S (only) are in state wS , given matching realization ξ . Hence, V (S , δ, q) is the expectation over ξ of V (S , δ, q | ξ ). Let Sk = {1, . . . , k} denote the ﬁrst k players, and suppose we are calculating player 1’s (∈ S ) value in V (Sk , δ, q | ξ ). Then, V (Sk , δ, q | ξ ) − V (Sk+1 , δ, q | ξ ) =

∞ (1 − δ)q t δ t 3χ{τ :i(1,τ,ξ )∈Tτ (Sk ,ξ )\Tτ (Sk+1 ,ξ )} (t),

(5.1.4)

t=0

where χC is the indicator function, χC (t) = 1 if t ∈ C and 0 otherwise. Equation (5.1.4) gives the loss in continuation value to player 1, when entering a continuation game in state wS , from having k + 1 players rather than k players in state wS . δ q(δ)[V (S1 , δ, q) − V (S2 , δ, q)] It is immediate from (5.1.4) that (1−δ) depends only on the product qδ. For every δ ∈ [δ, 1), we can then deﬁne q(δ) = δ/δ. This ensures that (5.1.3) holds for every δ ∈ (δ, 1) and q(δ), and hence that (5.1.1) holds for every such pair. This completes our ﬁrst step. Step 2. We ﬁnish the argument by showing that (5.1.2) holds for all values k ≥ 2,

for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) and q = q(δ). For this, it sufﬁces to show that for all k ≥ 2 and s = 1, . . . , M − k − 1,

V (Sk , δ, q | ξ ) − V (Sk+1 , δ, q | ξ ) > V (Sk+s , δ, q | ξ ) − V (Sk+s+1 , δ, q | ξ ), for any realization ξ , that is, slowing the contagion to shirking is more valuable when fewer people are currently shirking. This statement follows immediately from (5.1.4) and the observation that, with strict containment for some t, Tt (Sk+s , ξ ) \ Tt (Sk+s+1 , ξ ) ⊂ Tt (Sk , ξ ) \ Tt (Sk+1 , ξ ). ■

Kandori (1992a) works without a public correlating device, thus examining the special case of this strategy proﬁle in which q = 1 and punishments are therefore permanent. As Ellison (1994) notes, the purpose of the reset button is to make punishments less severe, and hence make it less tempting for a player who has observed an incidence

152

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Variations on the Game

of shirking to continue exerting effort in an attempt to retard the contagion to shirking. Without public correlation, a condition on payoffs is needed to ensure that such an attempt to slow the contagion is not too tempting (Kandori 1992a, theorem 1). This condition requires that the payoff lost by exerting effort (instead of shirking) against a shirking partner be sufﬁciently large and requires this loss to grow without bound as the population size grows. If this payoff is ﬁxed, then effort will become impossible to sustain, no matter how patient the players, when the population is sufﬁciently large. In contrast, public correlation allows us to establish a lower bound δ for the discount factor that increases as does the size of the population, but with the property that for any population size there exist discount factors sufﬁciently large (but short of unity) that support equilibrium effort. Remark Although we have assumed that players cannot remember the identities of earlier

5.1.1 partners, the strategy proﬁle σˆ is still a sequential equilibrium when players are not so forgetful, with essentially the same proof. Harrington (1995) considers this extension as well as more general matching technologies. Okuno-Fujiwara and Postlewaite (1995) examine a related model in which each player is characterized by a history-dependent status that allows direct but partial transfer of information across encounters. Ahn and Suominen (2001) examine a model with indirect information transmission. ◆

5.2

Relationships in Context

In many situations, players are neither tied permanently to one another (as in a repeated game) nor destined to part at ﬁrst opportunity (as in the matching games of section 5.1). In addition, players often have some control over how long their relationship lasts and have views about the desirability of continuing that depend on the context in which the relationship is embedded. One may learn about one’s partner over the course of a relationship, making it either more or less attractive to continue the relationship. One might be quite willing to leave one’s job or partner if it is easy to ﬁnd another, but not if alternatives are scarce. One may also pause to reﬂect that alternative partners may be available because they have come from relationships whose continuation was not proﬁtable. This section presents some simple models that allow us to explore some of these issues. These models share the feature that in each period, players have the opportunity to terminate their relationship. Although many of the models in this section are not games (because there is no initial node), the notions of strategy and equilibrium apply in the obvious manner. The ability to end a relationship raises issues related to the study of renegotiation in section 4.6. Renegotiating to a new and better equilibrium may not be the only recourse available to players who ﬁnd themselves facing an undesirable continuation equilibrium. What if, instead, the players have the option of quitting the game? This possibility becomes more interesting if there is a relationship between the value of quitting a game and play in the game itself. Suppose, for example, that quitting

5.2

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Relationships in Context

153

a game allows one to begin again with a new partner. We must then jointly examine the equilibrium of the game and the implications of this equilibrium for the environment in which the game is played.

5.2.1 A Frictionless Market As our point of departure, we consider a market in which the stage game is the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 5.1.1 and players who terminate one relationship encounter no obstacles in forming a new one. We can view this model as a version of the personal-history matching model of section 5.1 with three modiﬁcations. First, we assume that there is an inﬁnite number of players, most commonly taken to correspond to a continuum such as the unit interval, with individual behavior unobserved (see remark 2.7.1). This precludes any possibility of using the types of contagion arguments explored in section 5.1 to support nontrivial equilibrium outcomes. Second, at the end of each period the players in each match simultaneously decide whether to continue or terminate their match. If both continue, they proceed to the next period. If either decides to terminate, then both enter a pool of unmatched players where they are paired with a new partner to begin play in the next period. The prospect for continuing play restores some hope of creating intertemporal incentives. Third, similar to section 4.2, at the end of each period (either before or after making their continuation decisions), each pair of matched players either “dies” (with probability 1 − δ) or survives until the next period (with probability δ).4 Agents who die are replaced by new players who join the pool of unmatched players.5 We assume that players do not discount, with the specter of death ﬁlling the role of discounting (section 4.2), though it costs only extra notation to add discounting as well. At the beginning of each period, each player is either matched or unmatched. Unmatched players are matched into pairs, and each (new or continuing) pair plays the prisoners’ dilemma. Agents in a continuing match observe the history of play in their own match, but players receive no information about new partners they meet in the matching pool. In particular, they cannot observe whether a partner is a new entrant to the unmatched pool or has come from a previous relationship. The ﬂow of new players into the pool of unmatched players ensures that this pool is never empty, and hence players who terminate a match can always anonymously rematch. Otherwise, the possibility arises that no player terminates a match in equilibrium, because there would be no possibility of ﬁnding a new match (because the matching pool is empty . . .). In this market, players who leave a match can wipe away any record of their past behavior and instantly ﬁnd a new partner. What effect does this have on equilibrium play? 4. It simpliﬁes the calculations to assume that if one player in a pair dies, so does the other. At the cost of somewhat more complicated expressions, we could allow the possibility that one player in a pair leaves the market while the other remains, entering the matching pool, without affecting the conclusions. 5. From the point of view of an individual player, the probability of death is random, but we exploit the continuum of players to assume that there is no aggregate uncertainty.

154

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Variations on the Game

We begin with two immediate observations. First, there exists an equilibrium in which every player shirks at every opportunity. Second, there is no equilibrium in which the equilibrium path of play features only effort. Suppose that there were such an equilibrium. A player could then increase his payoff by shirking in the current period. This shirking results in a lower continuation if the player remained matched with his current partner, but the player can instead terminate the current match, immediately ﬁnd a new partner, and begin play anew with a clean history and with a continuation equilibrium that prescribes continued effort. Consequently, shirking is a proﬁtable deviation. The difﬁculty here is that punishments can be carried out only within a match, whereas there is no penalty attached to abandoning a match to seek a new one. The public-history matching model of section 5.1 avoids this difﬁculty by allowing a player’s past to follow the player into the matching pool. The personal-history matching game provides players with less information about past play but exploits the ﬁniteness of the set of players to allow enough information transmission to support effort (with sufﬁcient patience). In the current model, no information survives the termination of a match, and there are no punishments that can sustain effort. 5.2.2 Future Benefits Players may be less inclined to shirk and run if new matches are not as valuable as current ones. Moreover, these differences in value may arise endogenously as a product of equilibrium play. In the simplest version of this, consider equilibrium strategies in which matched players shirk during periods 0, . . . , T − 1, begin to exert effort in period T , and exert thereafter. Any deviation from these strategies prompts both players to abandon the match and enter the matching pool. If a deviation from such strategies is ever to be optimal, it must be optimal in period T , the ﬁrst period of effort. It then sufﬁces that it is optimal to exert effort in period T (for a continuation payoff 2) instead of shirking, which requires: 2 ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ T +1 2, which we can solve for

1−δ 3. 1 − δ T +1 For δ > 1/2, the inequality is satisﬁed for T ≥ 1. Taking the limit as T → ∞, we ﬁnd that this inequality can be satisﬁed for ﬁnite T if the familiar inequality δ > 1/3 holds. Hence, as long as the effective continuation probability is sufﬁciently large to support the strict optimality of effort in the ordinary repeated prisoners’ dilemma, we can make the introductory shirking phase sufﬁciently long to support some effort when an exit option is added to the repeated game. Moreover, as the continuation probability δ approaches 1, we can set T = 1 and still preserve incentives. Hence, in the limit as δ → 1, the equilibrium value of δ2 converges to 2. Very patient players can come arbitrarily close to the payoff they could obtain by always exerting effort. An alternative interpretation is that the introductory phase may take place outside of the current relationship. Suppose that whenever a player returns to the matching pool, he must wait some number of periods T before beginning another match. Then 2≥

5.2

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155

Relationships in Context

the previous calculations apply immediately, indicating that effort can be supported within a match as long as T is sufﬁciently long relative to the incentives to shirk. This trade-off is the heart of the efﬁciency wage model of Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984). Efﬁciency wages, in the form of wages that offer a matched worker a continuation value higher than the expected continuation value of entering the pool of unemployed workers, create the incentives to exert effort rather than accept the risk of terminating the relationship that accompanies shirking. In Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984), the counterparts of the value of T as well as the payoffs in the prisoners’ dilemma are determined as part of a market equilibrium. Carmichael and MacLeod (1997) note that any technology for paying sunk costs can take the place of the initial T periods of shirking. Suppose players can burn a sum of money θ . Consider strategies prescribing that matched players initially exert effort if both have burned the requisite sum θ , with any deviation prompting termination to enter the matching pool. Once a pair of players have matched and burned their money, continued effort is optimal if 2 ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ(2 − (1 − δ)θ ), or θ≥

1 . δ

Hence, the sum to be burned must exceed the payoff premium to be earned by shirking rather than exerting effort against a cooperator. For these strategies to be an equilibrium, it must in turn be the case that the amount of money to be burned is less than the beneﬁts of the resulting effort, or (1 − δ)θ ≤ 2. These two constraints on θ can be simultaneously satisﬁed if δ ≥ 1/3. Notice that the efﬁciency loss of burning the money can be as small as (1 − δ)/δ, which becomes arbitrarily small as the continuation probability approaches 1. We seldom think of people literally burning money. Instead, this is a metaphor for an activity that is costly but creates no value. In some contexts, advertising is offered as an example. In the case of people being matched to form partnerships, it sufﬁces for the players to exchange gifts that are costly to give but have no value (other than sentimental) to the recipient. Wedding rings are often mentioned as an example. 5.2.3 Adverse Selection Ghosh and Ray (1996) offer a model in which returning to the matching pool is costly because it exposes players to adverse selection. We consider a simpliﬁed version of their argument. We now assume that players discount as well as face a probability that the game does not continue. There are two types of players, “impatient” players characterized by a discount factor of 0 and “patient” players characterized by a discount factor δ > 0. The pool of unmatched players will contain a mixture of patient and impatient players. Matching is random, with players able to neither affect the type of partner with whom they are matched nor observe this type. Once matched, their partners’ plays may allow

156

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Variations on the Game

them to draw inferences about their partner that will affect the relative payoffs of continuing or abandoning the match. Denote the continuation probability by ρ. The effective discount factor is then δρ, and we normalize accordingly payoffs by the factor (1 − δρ). We begin by assuming that the proportion of impatient types in the matching pool is exogenously ﬁxed at λ. Players who enter the matching pool are matched with a new partner in the next period. As usual, one conﬁguration of equilibrium strategies is that every player shirks at every opportunity, coupled with any conﬁguration of decisions about continuing or abandoning matches. We are interested in an alternative equilibrium in which impatient players again invariably shirk but patient players initially exert effort, continuing to do so as long as they are matched with a partner who exerts effort. Patient players respond to any shirking by terminating the match. Patient players thus screen their partners, abandoning impatient ones to seek new partners while remaining and exerting effort with patient ones. The temptation to shirk against a patient partner is deterred by the fact that such shirking requires a return to the matching pool, where one may have to sort through a number of impatient players before ﬁnding another patient partner. The incentive facing the impatient players in this equilibrium are trivial, and they must always shirk in any equilibrium. Suppose a patient player is in the middle of a match with a partner who is exerting effort and hence who is also patient. Equilibrium requires that continued effort be optimal, rather than shirking and then returning to the matching pool. Let V be the value of entering the pool of unmatched players. Then the optimality of effort requires: 2 ≥ (1 − δρ)3 + δρV .

(5.2.1)

Now consider a patient player at the beginning of a match with a partner of unknown type, being impatient with probability λ. If it is to be optimal for the patient player to exert effort, we must have (1 − λ)2 + λ[(1 − δρ)(−1) + δρV ] ≥ (1 − λ)[(1 − δρ)3 + δρV ] + λδρV , or

λ (1 − δρ) ≥ (1 − δρ)3 + δρV . 1−λ The latter constraint is clearly more stringent than that given by (5.2.1), for exerting effort in a continuing relationship. Hence, if it is optimal to exert in the ﬁrst period, continued effort against a patient partner is optimal. We thus need only investigate initial effort. Let VE and VS be the expected payoff to a player who exerts effort and shirks, respectively, in the initial period of a match. Then we have 2−

VE = 2(1 − λ) + λ[(1 − δρ)(−1) + δρV ]

(5.2.2)

VS = (1 − λ)[(1 − δρ)3 + δρV ] + λδρV .

(5.2.3)

and

5.2

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157

Relationships in Context

If we are to have an equilibrium in which patient players exert effort in the initial period, then VE = V , and we can solve (5.2.2) to ﬁnd VE =

2 − 3λ + δρλ . 1 − δρλ

(5.2.4)

A necessary and sufﬁcient condition for the optimality of exerting effort is obtained by inserting V = VE in (5.2.2)–(5.2.3) to write VE ≥ VS as VE ≥ (1 − λ)[(1 − δρ)3 + δρVE ] + λδρVE , and then using (5.2.4) to solve for 3δρλ2 − 4δρλ + 1 ≤ 0. If δρ < 3/4, there are no real values of λ that satisfy this inequality. Effort cannot be sustained without sufﬁcient patience. If δρ ≥ 3/4, then this condition is satisﬁed, and ¯ for some effort is optimal, for values of λ ∈ [λ, λ], 0 < λ < λ¯ < 1. Hence, if effort is to be optimal, the proportion of impatient players λ must be neither too high nor too low. If λ is low, and hence almost every player is patient, then there is little cost to entering the matching pool in search of a new partner, making it optimal to shirk in the ﬁrst round of a match and then abandon the match. If λ is very high, so that almost all players are impatient, then the probability that one’s new partner is patient is so low as to not make it worthwhile risking initial effort, no matter how bleak the matching pool. What ﬁxes the value of λ, the proportion of impatient types in the matching pool? We illustrate one possibility here. First, we assume that departing players are replaced by new players of whom φ are impatient and 1 − φ patient.6 Let and h be the mass of players in the unmatched pool in each period who are impatient and patient, respectively. We then seek values of and h, and hence λ = /( + h), for which we have a steady state, in the sense that the values and h remain unchanged from period to period, given the candidate equilibrium strategies.7 Let zHH , zHL , and zLL be the mass of matches in each period that are between two patient players, one patient and one impatient player, or between two impatient players. Notice that these must sum to 1/2 because there are half as many matches as players. In a steady state, = φ(1 − ρ) + ρ(zHL + 2zLL )

(5.2.5)

h = (1 − φ)(1 − ρ) + ρzHL ,

(5.2.6)

and

6. Recall that there is a continuum of players, of mass 1, and we assume there is no aggregate uncertainty. 7. A more ambitious analysis would ﬁx and h at arbitrary initial values and allow them to evolve. This is signiﬁcantly more difﬁcult, because the value of λ is then no longer constant, and hence our preceding analysis inapplicable.

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Variations on the Game

reﬂecting the ﬂow of players into the unmatched pool from replacing departing players (the ﬁrst term in each case) or from terminating matches (the second term). In each period, surviving matches between patient players as well as newly formed matches from players in the unmatched pool form matches in proportions, h2 1 , zHH = ρzHH + (h + ) 2 (h + )2 1 2h , zHL = (h + ) 2 (h + )2 and zLL =

2 1 (h + ) . 2 (h + )2

Substituting into (5.2.5), we obtain = φ(1 − ρ) + ρ =⇒ = φ, whereas substituting into (5.2.6), we obtain h h+ hφ = (1 − φ)(1 − ρ) + ρ ≡ f (h). h+φ

h = (1 − φ)(1 − ρ) + ρ

Because f (0) > 0, f (1 − φ) < 1 − φ, and f (h) ∈ (0, 1), f has a unique ﬁxed point, ¯ that and this point is strictly smaller than 1 − φ. It remains to verify that λ ∈ [λ, λ], is, that the steady state is indeed an equilibrium. As for the exogenous λ case, extreme values of φ preclude equilibrium. Fix ρ and δ so that δρ > 3/4. As φ → 0, → 0 while h → 1 − ρ and so λ → 0. On the other hand, as φ → 1, → 1 while h → 0 and so λ → 1. From continuity, there will be intermediate values of φ for which the implied steady-state values of h and are consistent with equilibrium. In equilibrium, the proportion of patient players in the unmatched pool falls short of the proportion of new entrants who are patient, ensuring that the unmatched pool is biased toward impatient players (λ > φ). This reﬂects adverse selection in the process by which players reach the unmatched pool. Patient players tend to lock themselves into partnerships that keep them out of the unmatched pool, whereas impatient players continually ﬂow back into the pool. 5.2.4 Starting Small In section 5.2.2, we saw that patient players have an incentive to not behave opportunistically in the presence of attractive outside options when the value of the relationship increases over time. In addition, the possibility that potential partners may be impatient can reduce the value of the outside option sufﬁciently to again provide patient players with an incentive to not behave opportunistically (section 5.2.3). Here we explore an adverse selection motivation, studied by Watson (1999, 2002), for “starting small.”8 8. Similar ideas appear in Diamond (1989).

5.2

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159

Relationships in Context

We continue with the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 5.1.1. As in section 5.2.3, we assume that players can come in two types, impatient and patient. The impatient type has a discount factor δ < 1/3, and the patient type has a discount factor δ¯ > 1/3. Because our focus is on the players’ response to this adverse selection within a relationship (rather than how their behavior responds to the adverse selection within the population), we assume each player is impatient with exogenous probability λ. Each player knows his own type. Similarly, at the end of each period, each player has the option of abandoning the relationship and, on doing so, receives an exogenous outside option. The impatient type’s option is worth 0, and a patient type’s is worth V¯ ∈ (0, 2). As in section 5.1.2, the relevant equilibrium notion is sequential equilibrium. Because δ < 1/3, even if an impatient player knows he is facing a patient player playing grim trigger, the impatient player’s unique best reply is to shirk immediately. In other words, the immediate reward from shirking is too tempting for the impatient player. Consequently, the only equilibrium outcome of the repeated prisoner’s dilemma of ﬁgure 5.1.1, when one player is known to be impatient, is perpetual shirking. Thus, if the probability of the impatient type is sufﬁciently large, the only equilibrium outcome is again perpetual shirking. The new aspect considered in this section is that the scale of the relationship may change over time. Early periods involve conﬁdence building, whereas in later periods the players hope to reap the rewards of the relationship. To capture this, we study the game in ﬁgure 5.2.1. This partnership game extends the prisoners’dilemma by adding a moderate effort choice that lowers the cost from having a partner shirk while lowering the beneﬁt from effort. We consider separating strategies of the following form. Patient players choose M for T periods, and then exert effort E as long as their partner also does so, abandoning the match after any shirking. Impatient players always shirk and terminate play after the ﬁrst period of any game. What is required for these strategies to be optimal? There are two strategies that could be optimal for an impatient player. He could shirk in the ﬁrst period of a match, thereafter abandoning the match, or he could choose M until period T (if the partner does, abandoning the match otherwise), and then shirk in period T . Under the latter strategy, the player shirks at high stakes against a patient opponent, at the cost of

E

M

S

E

2, 2

0, 1

−1, 3

M

1, 0

2z, 2z

−z, 3z

S

3, −1

3z, −z

0, 0

Figure 5.2.1 A partnership game extending the prisoners’ dilemma, where z ∈ [0, 1].

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Variations on the Game

delaying the shirking and the risk of being exploited by an impatient partner. The incentive constraint is given by (1 − λ)(1 − δ)3z ≥ (1 − λ)(1 − δ)

#T −1

$ δ 2z + δ 3 + λ(1 − δ)(−z). t

T

t=0

The left side is the payoff produced by immediate shirking. If z = 1, then the impatient player will always shirk immediately. There is then no gain from waiting for the chance to shirk at higher stakes. Alternatively, if z = 0, then the impatient player will surely wait until period T to shirk, because this is the only opportunity available to secure a positive payoff. For the patient player, the relevant choices are either to shirk immediately and then abandon the match or follow the equilibrium strategy, for an incentive constraint of ¯ (1 − λ)[(1 − δ)3z + δ¯V¯ ] + λδ¯V¯ T −1 t T ¯ ¯ + δ¯V¯ ]. δ¯ 2z + δ¯ 2 + λ[(1 − δ)(−z) ≤ (1 − λ) (1 − δ) t=0

The left side is again the payoff from immediate shirking. For any T , if δ¯ is sufﬁciently large, this incentive constraint will hold for any z ∈ (0, 1). Suppose δ¯ is sufﬁciently large that it holds for T = 1. We now evaluate the impact of varying z and T on the payoff of the patient player. In doing so, we view z as a characteristic of the partnership (perhaps one that could be designed in an effort to nurture the relationship), whereas T , of course, is a parameter describing the strategy proﬁle. We are thus asking what relationship the patient type prefers, noting that the answer depends on the attendant equilibrium. The derivative of the patient player’s payoff under the candidate equilibrium proﬁle with respect to z is given by " ! (1 − δ¯T ) ¯ −λ . (1 − δ) 2(1 − λ) ¯ (1 − δ) If λ < 2/3, then this derivative is positive, for any T . Patient players then prefer z to be as large as possible, leading to an optimum of z = 1 or T = 0 (and reinforcing the incentives of impatient players in the process). In this case, impatient players are sufﬁciently rare that it is optimal to simply bear the consequences of meeting such players, rather than taking steps to minimize the losses they inﬂict that also reduce the gains earned against impatient players. As a result, patient players would prefer that the interaction start at full size. If λ > 2/3, the derivative is negative for T = 1. In this case, an impatient player is sufﬁciently likely that the patient player prefers a smaller value of z and T = 1 to T = 0 to minimize the losses imposed by meeting an impatient type. The difﬁculty is that a small value of z, with T = 1, may violate the incentive constraint for the impatient player. Because the constraint holds strictly with z = 1, there will exist an interval [z1 , 1) for which the constraint holds. The patient player will prefer the equilibrium

5.3

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161

Multimarket Interactions

E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S

E

−1, 3

E

3, 3

0, 0

S

4, −1

S −1, 4 0, 0

Figure 5.3.1 Prisoners’ dilemma stage games for two repeated games between players 1 and 2.

T = 1 for any z ∈ [z1 , 1) to the equilibrium with T = 0. We thus have a basis for starting small.9

5.3

Multimarket Interactions

Suppose that players 1 and 2 are engaged in more than one repeated game. The players may be ﬁrms who produce a variety of products and hence repeatedly compete in several markets. They may be agents who repeatedly bargain with one another on behalf of a variety of clients. How does this multitude of interactions affect the set of equilibrium payoffs? For example, if the players are ﬁrms, does the multimarket interaction enhance the prospects for collusion? One possibility is to view the games in isolation, conditioning behavior in each game only on the history of play in that game. In this case, any payoff that can be sustained as an equilibrium in one of the constituent repeated games can also be sustained as the equilibrium outcome of that game in the combined interaction. Putting the games together can thus never decrease the set of equilibrium payoffs. An alternative is to treat the constituent games as a single metagame, now allowing behavior in one game to be conditioned on actions in another game. It initially appears as if this must enlarge the set of possible payoffs. A deviation in one game can be punished in each of the other games, allowing the construction of more severe punishments that should seemingly increase the set of equilibrium payoffs. At the same time, however, the prospect arises of simultaneously deviating from equilibrium play in each of the constituent games, making deviations harder to deter. It is immediate that if the constituent games are identical, then the set of equilibrium payoffs in the metagame, averaged across constituent games, is precisely that of any single constituent game. If the constituent games differ, then the opportunity for crosssubsidization arises. We illustrate these points with an example. Consider the pair of prisoner’s dilemmas in ﬁgure 5.3.1. It is a familiar calculation that an expected payoff of (2, 2) can be achieved in the left game, featuring an equilibrium path of persistent effort, whenever δ ≥ 1/3, and that otherwise a payoff of (0, 0) is the only equilibrium possibility 9. There may exist yet better combinations of z and T > 1 for the patient player.

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(see section 2.5.2). A payoff of (3, 3), the result of persistent effort, is available in the right game if and only if δ ≥ 1/4. Suppose now that δ = 3/10. If the games are played separately, the largest symmetric equilibrium payoff, summed across the two games, is (3, 3), reﬂecting the fact that the left game features only mutual shirking as an equilibrium outcome, whereas effort can be supported in the right game. Now suppose that the two games are combined, with an equilibrium strategy of exerting effort in both games as long as no prior shirking in either game has occurred, and shirking in both games otherwise. To verify these are equilibrium strategies, we need only show that the most lucrative deviation, to simultaneously shirking in both games, is unproﬁtable. The equilibrium payoff from the two games is 5, and the deviation brings an immediate payoff of 7 followed by a future of zero payoffs, for an incentive constraint of 5 ≥ (1 − δ)7, which we solve for δ ≥ 2/7 ( 0, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), every subgame-perfect equilibrium of the continuation game induced by history ht gives an equilibrium payoff in excess of v ∗ − ε. If ht is the null history, this statement holds for ε = 0. Proof We proceed in three steps.

First, let ht be a history ending in a choice of ai∗ for player i (and hence t ≥ 1), with player j now called on to make a choice in period t. We show that continuation payoffs are at least v ∗ for each player. To establish this result, let v˜ be the inﬁmum over the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs, in a continuation game beginning in a period t ≥ 1, in which player j must choose a

5.4

■

171

Repeated Extensive Forms

current action and player i’s period t−1 choice is ai∗ . Because the game is one of pure coordination, this value must be the same for both players. One option open to player j is to choose aj∗ in the current period, earning a payoff of v ∗ in the current period, followed by a continuation payoff no lower than v. ˜ We thus have v˜ ≥ (1 − δ)v ∗ + δ v, ˜ allowing us to solve for

v˜ ≥ v ∗ .

Hence, if the action ai∗ or aj∗ is ever played, then the continuation payoffs to both players must be v ∗ . Second, we ﬁx an arbitrary history ht , including possibly the null history, with player j called on to move (or, in the case of the null history, with j being player 2, who does not move in the next period) and with no restriction on player i’s previous move (or on player 1’s concurrent move, in the case of the null history). Then one possibility is for player j to choose aj∗ . We have shown that this brings a continuation payoff, beginning in period t + 1, of v ∗ . Hence, the payoff to this action must be at least (1 − δ)m + δv ∗ , where m is the smallest stage-game payoff. Choosing δ=

v∗ − m − ε v∗ − m

then ensures that every subgame-perfect contniuation equilibrium gives a payoff at least v ∗ − ε. Third, we consider the null history. We show that player 2 prefers to choose a2∗ in the ﬁrst period, regardless of 1’s ﬁrst-period action, given subgame-perfect continuation play. The initial choice of a2∗ ensures that payoff v ∗ will be received in every period except the ﬁrst, for a payoff of at least (1 − δ)m + δv ∗ . Choosing any other action can give a payoff at most (1 − δ)[v + δv ] + δ 2 v ∗ , where v is the second-largest stage-game payoff. Choosing δ=

v − m v∗ − v

then sufﬁces for the optimality of player 2’s initial choice of a2∗ . Given that player 1 makes a new choice in period 1, it is immediate that 1 ﬁnds a1∗ optimal in the ﬁrst period. This sufﬁces for the result. ■

This ﬁnding contrasts with chapter 3’s folk theorem for repeated normal-form games. The key to the result is again the appearance of histories in which player i can choose an action, knowing that player j will not be able to make another choice until

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after observing i’s current choice. This allows player i to lead player j to coordination on the efﬁcient outcome. The asynchronous games considered here are a special case of the dynamic games examined in section 5.5. There, we developed a folk theorem for dynamic games. Why do we ﬁnd a different result here? The folk theorem for dynamic games makes use of player-speciﬁc punishments that are not available in the asynchronous games considered here. Given that there are only two players, why not rely on mutual minmaxing, rather than player-speciﬁc punishments, to create incentives? In the asynchronous game, player i’s current choice of ai∗ ensures future play of a ∗ . This in turn implies that player i will invariably choose ai∗ rather than minmax player j . Our only hope for inducing i to do otherwise would be to arrange future play to punish i for not minmaxing j , and the coordination game does not allow sufﬁcient ﬂexibility to do so. Conversely, the efﬁciency result obtained here is tied to the special structure of the coordination game, with the folk theorem for dynamic games appearing once one has the ability to impose player-speciﬁc punishments. 5.4.6 Simple Strategies We are often interested in characterizing equilibrium behavior as well as payoffs. Mailath, Nocke, and White (2004) note that simple strategies may no longer sufﬁce in extensive-form games. Instead, punishments may have to be tailored not only to the identity of a deviator but to the nature of the deviation as well. We must ﬁrst revisit what it means for a strategy to be simple. Deﬁnition 2.6.1, for normal-form games, deﬁned simple strategies in terms of outcome paths, consisting of an equilibrium outcome path and a punishment path for each player. The essence of the deﬁnition is that any unilateral deviation by player i, whether from the equilibrium path or one of the punishments, triggered the same player i punishment. Punishments thus depend on the identity of the transgressor, but neither the circumstances nor the nature of the transgression. As we saw in section 5.4.1, repeated extensive-form games have more information sets than repeated normal-form games, and so there are two candidates for the notion of simplicity. First observe that we cannot simply apply deﬁnition 2.6.1 because action proﬁles are not observed. We can still refer to an inﬁnite sequence of actions a as a (potential) punishment path for i. Let Y d (a) be the set of terminal nodes reached by (potentially a sequence of) unilateral deviations from the action proﬁle a, and let i(y) be the last player who deviated on the path (within the extensive form) to y ∈ Y d (a) (there is a unique last player by the deﬁnition of Y d (a)). Then, we say that a strategy proﬁle is uniformly simple if i’s punishment path after nodes y ∈ Y d (a) is constant on Yid (a) ≡ {y : i(y ) = i, y ∈ Y d (a)}. This notion requires that i’s intertemporal punishments not be tailored to either when the deviation occurred or the nature of the deviation. A weaker notion requires that the intertemporal punishments not be tailored to the nature of the deviation but can depend on when the deviation occurred. The set Yid (a) can be partitioned by the information sets h at which i’s deviation occurs; let Yhd (a) denote a typical member of the partition. We say that a strategy proﬁle is agent simple if i’s punishment path after nodes y ∈ Y d (a) is constant on Yhd (a) for all h.16 In other 16. The term is chosen by analogy with the agent-normal form, where each information set of an extensive form is associated with a distinct agent.

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173

Repeated Extensive Forms

1 A B 1 5 5

Y

N

Y 10,9,1 10,0,9 N 10,0,1 0,0,0

Y

C

D

N

Y

E N

Y

N

10, 2,8 10,2,0 10,1,9 10,1,0 0,0,0 10,0,8 0,0,0 10,0,9 0,0,0

10,8,2 10,8,0 10,0, 2

Figure 5.4.8 Representation of an extensive-form game. Each normal-form game represents a simultaneous move subgame played by players 2 and 3.

words, the punishment path is independent of the nature of the deviation at h but can depend on h. We now describe an extensive form, illustrated in ﬁgure 5.4.8, and a subgameperfect equilibrium outcome of its repetition that cannot be supported using agentsimple strategy proﬁles. Player 1 moves ﬁrst. If player 1 chooses either B, C, D, or E, then players 2 and 3 play a simultaneous-move subgame, each choosing Y or N . We are interested in equilibria in which player 1 chooses A in the ﬁrst period. One such equilibrium calls for players 2 and 3 to both choose N after choices of B, C, D, or E. These choices make player 1’s ﬁrst-period choice of A a best response in the stage game, but are not a stage-game subgame-perfect equilibrium. To support A in period 0 as a choice for player 1, we proceed as follows. In period 0, player 1 chooses A and players 2 and 3 respond to any other choice with NN . From period 1 on, a single stagegame subgame-perfect equilibrium is played in each period, whose identity depends on ﬁrst-period play. Let “equilibrium x” for x ∈ {B, C, D, E} call for player 1 to choose x and players 2 and 3 to choose Y in each period. The continuation play as a function of ﬁrst-period actions is given in ﬁgure 5.4.9. Because A is a best response for player 1 in the ﬁrst period, and because every ﬁrst-period history leads to a continuation path consisting of stage-game subgame-perfect equilibria, verifying subgame perfection in the repeated game requires only ensuring that players 2 and 3 behave optimally out of equilibrium in the ﬁrst period. This is ensured by punishing player 2 and 3 for deviations, by selecting the relatively unattractive continuation equilibria B and E, respectively. If player 2 and 3 behave as prescribed in period 1, after a choice of B, C, D or E, then the relatively low-payoff player is rewarded by the selection from continuation equilibria C or D that is relatively lucrative for that player. If δ = 2/3, these strategies are a subgame-perfect equilibrium. However, the strategy proﬁle is not agent-simple because 1’s punishment path depends on the nature of 1’s deviation. Deviations by player 1 to either B or C are followed, given equilibrium play by players 2 and 3, by continuation equilibrium C. Deviations to D or E are followed by continuation equilibrium D. This absence of simplicity is necessary to obtain the payoffs provided by this equilibrium. Consider a deviation by player 1 to B, and consider player 2’s incentives. Choosing Y produces a payoff of 9 in the current period, followed by an equilibrium giving player 2 her minmax value of 1, and hence imposing the most severe possible punishment on player 2. If 2’s choice of N , for a current payoff of 0, is to be optimal, the resulting continuation payoff v2 must satisfy δv2 ≥ (1 − δ)9 + δ,

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First-period proﬁle

Continuation

First-period proﬁle

Continuation

A

B

BNN, BYY

C

DNN, DYY

D

BYN

E

DYN

E

BNY

B

DNY

B

CNN, CYY

C

ENN, EYY

D

CYN

E

EYN

E

CNY

B

ENY

B

Figure 5.4.9 The continuation play of the equilibrium for the repeated game.

or v2 ≥

11 2.

Player 1’s deviation to B must then be followed by a continuation path giving player 2 a payoff of at least 11/2. A symmetric argument shows that the same must be true for player 3 after 1’s deviation to E. However, there is no stage-game action proﬁle that gives players 2 and 3 both at least 11/2. Hence, if player 1 is ever to play A, then deviations to B and E must lead to different continuation paths—the equilibrium strategy cannot be agent simple. Finally, player 1’s choice of A gives payoffs of (1, 5, 5), a feat that is impossible if 1 conﬁnes himself to choices in {B, C, D, E}. The payoffs provided by this equilibrium can thus be achieved only via strategies that are not agent simple.

5.5

Dynamic Games: Introduction

This section allows the possibility that the stage game changes from period to period for a ﬁxed set of players, possibly randomly and possibly as a function of the history of play. Such games are referred to as dynamic games or, when stressing that the stage game may be a random function of the game’s history, stochastic games. The analysis of a dynamic game typically revolves around a set of game states that describe how the stage game varies from period to period. Unless we need to distinguish between game states and states of an automaton (automaton states), we refer to game states simply as states (see remark 5.5.2). Each state determines a stage game, captured by writing payoffs as a function of states and actions. The speciﬁcation of the game is completed by a rule for how the state changes over the course of play. In many applications, the context in which the game arises suggests what appears to be a natural candidate for the set of states. It is accordingly common to treat

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Dynamic Games: Introduction

175

the set of states as an exogenously speciﬁed feature of the environment. This section proceeds in this way. However, the appropriate formulation of the set of states is not always obvious. Moreover, the notion of a state is an intermediate convention that is not required for the analysis of dynamic games. Instead, we can deﬁne payoffs directly as functions of current and past actions, viewing states as tools for describing this function. This suggests that instead of inspecting the environment and asking which of its features appear to deﬁne states, we begin with the payoff function and identify the states that implicitly lie behind its structure. Section 5.6 pursues this approach. With these tools in hand, section 5.7 examines equilibria in dynamic games.

5.5.1 The Game There are n players, numbered 1, . . . , n. There is a set of states S, with typical state s. Player i has the compact set of actions Ai ⊂ Rk , for some k. Player i’s payoffs are given by the continuous function ui : S × A → R. Because payoffs are state dependent, the assumption that Ai is state independent is without loss of generality: If state s has action set Asi , deﬁne Ai ≡ s Asi and set u˜ i (s, a) = ui (s, a s ). Players discount at the common rate δ. The evolution of the state is given by a continuous transition function q : S × A ∪ {∅} → (S), associating with each current state and action proﬁle a probability distribution from which the next state is drawn; q(∅) is the distribution over initial states. This formulation captures a number of possibilities. If S is a singleton, then we are back to the case of a repeated game. If q(s, a) is nondegenerate but constant in a, then we have a game in which payoffs are random variables whose distribution is constant across periods. If S = {0, 1, 2, . . .} and q(s , a) puts probability one on s+1 , we have a game in which the payoff function varies deterministically across periods, independently of behavior. We focus on two common cases. In one, the set of states S is ﬁnite. We then let q(s | s, a) denote the probability that the state s is realized, given that the previous state was s and the players chose action proﬁle a (the initial state can be random in this case). We allow equilibria to be either pure or, if the action sets are ﬁnite, mixed. In the other case, Ai and S are inﬁnite, in which case S ⊂ Rm for some m. We then take the transition function to be deterministic, so that for every s and a, there exists s with q(s | s, a) = 1 and q(s | s, a) = 0 for all s = s (the initial state is deterministic and given by s 0 in this case). As is common, we then restrict attention to pure-strategy equilibria. In each period of the game, the state is ﬁrst drawn and revealed to the players, who then simultaneously choose their actions. The set of period t ex ante histories H t is the set (S × A)t , identifying the state and the action proﬁle in each period.17 The set of period t ex post histories is the set H˜ t = (S × A)t × S, giving state and 17. Under the state transition rule q, many of the histories in this set may be impossible. If so, the speciﬁcation of behavior at these histories will have no effect on payoffs.

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action realizations for each previous period and identifying the current state. Let 0 ∞ be the set of outcomes. ˜t ˜0 H˜ = ∪∞ t=0 H ; we set H = {∅}, so that H = S. Let H A pure strategy for player i is a mapping σi : H˜ → Ai , associating an action with each ex post history. A pure strategy proﬁle σ , together with the transition function q, induces a probability measure over H ∞ . Player i’s expected payoff is then Ui (σ ) = E

(1 − δ)

σ

∞

δ t ui (s t , a t ) ,

t=0

where the expectation is taken with respect to the measure over H ∞ induced by q(∅) and σ . Note that the expectation may be nontrivial, even for a pure strategy proﬁle, because the transition function q may be random. As usual, this formulation has a straightforward extension to behavior strategies. For histories other than the null history, we let Ui (σ | h˜ t ) denote i’s expected payoffs induced by the strategy proﬁle σ in the continuation game that follows the ex post history h˜ t . An ex ante history ending in (s, a) gives rise to a continuation game matching the original game but with q(∅) replaced by q(· | s, a) and the transition function otherwise unchanged. An ex post history h˜ t , ending with state s, gives rise to the continuation game again matching the original game but with the initial distribution over states now attaching probability 1 to state s. It will be convenient to denote this game by G(s). Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a Nash equilibrium if Ui (σ ) ≥ Ui (σi , σ−i ) for all σi and

5.5.1 for all players i. A strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if, for any ex post history h˜ t ∈ H˜ ending in state s, the continuation strategy σ |h˜ t is a Nash equilibrium of the continuation game G(s). Example Suppose there are two equally likely states, independently drawn in each period,

5.5.1 with payoffs given in ﬁgure 5.5.1. It is a quick calculation that strategies specifying effort after every ex post history in which there has been no previous shirking (and specifying shirking otherwise) are a subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if δ ≥ 2/7. Strategies specifying effort after any ex post history ending in state 2 while calling for shirking in state 1 (as long as there have been no deviations from this prescription, and shirking otherwise) are an equilibrium if and only if δ ≥ 2/5. The deviation incentives are the same in both games, whereas exerting

E

E

S

E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S

−1, 3

E

3, 3

0, 0

S

4, −1

State 1

−1, 4 0, 0

State 2

Figure 5.5.1 Payoff functions for states 1 and 2 of a dynamic game.

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Dynamic Games: Introduction

177

effort in only one state reduces the equilibrium continuation value, and hence requires more patience to sustain effort in the other state.18 ●

Remark Repeated games with random states The previous example illustrates the special

5.5.1 case in which the probability of the current state is independent of the previous state and the players’ actions, that is, q(s | s , a ) = q(s | s , a ) ≡ q(s). We refer to such dynamic games as repeated games with random states. These games are a particularly simple repeated game with imperfect public monitoring (section 7.1.1). Player i’s pure action set in the stage game is given by the set of functions from S into Ai , and players simultaneously choose such actions. The pure-action proﬁle σ then gives rise to the signal (s, σ1 (s), . . . , σn (s)) with probability q(s), for each s ∈ S. Player i’s payoff ui (s, a) can then be written as ui ((s, σ−i (s)), ai (s)), giving i’s payoff as a function of i’s action and the public signal. We describe a simpler approach in remark 5.7.1. ◆ 5.5.2 Markov Equilibrium In principle, strategies in a dynamic game could specify each period’s action as a complicated function of the preceding history. It is common, though by no means universal, to restrict attention to Markov strategies: ˜t Definition 1. The strategy proﬁle σ is a Markov strategy if for any two ex post histories h and h˜ τ of the same length and terminating in the same state, σ (h˜ t ) = σ (h˜ τ ). 5.5.2 The strategy proﬁle σ is a Markov equilibrium if σ is a Markov strategy proﬁle and a subgame-perfect equilibrium. 2. The strategy proﬁle σ is a stationary Markov strategy if for any two ex post histories h˜ t and h˜ τ (of equal or different lengths) terminating in the same state, σ (h˜ t ) = σ (h˜ τ ). The strategy proﬁle σ is a stationary Markov equilibrium if σ is a stationary Markov strategy proﬁle and a subgame-perfect equilibrium. It is sometimes useful to reinforce the requirement of subgame perfection by referring to a Markov equilibrium as a Markov perfect equilibrium. Some researchers also refer to game states as Markov states when using Markov equilibrium (but see remark 5.5.2). Markov strategies ignore all of the details of a history except its length and the current state. Stationary Markov strategies ignore all details except the current state. Three advantages for such equilibria are variously cited. First, Markov equilibria appear to be simple, in the sense that behavior depends on a relatively small set of variables, often being the simplest strategies consistent with rationality. To some, this simplicity is appealing for its own sake, whereas for others it is an analytical or computational advantage. Markov equilibria are especially common in applied work.19 18. In contrast to section 5.3, we face here one randomly drawn game in each period, instead of both games. 19. It is not true, however, that Markov equilibria are always simpler than non-Markov equilibria. The proof of proposition 18.4.4 goes to great lengths to construct a Markov equilibrium featuring high effort, in a version of the product choice game, that would be a straightforward calculation in non-Markov strategies.

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Second, the set of Markov equilibrium outcomes is often considerably smaller than the set of all equilibrium outcomes. This is a virtue for some and a vice for others, but again contributes to the popularity of Markov equilibria in applied work. Third, Markov equilibria are often viewed as having some intuitive appeal for their own sake. The source of this appeal is the idea that only things that are “payoff relevant” should matter in determining behavior. Because the only aspect of a history that affects current payoff functions is the current state, then a ﬁrst step in imposing payoff relevance is to assume that current behavior should depend only on the current state.20 Notice, however, that there is no reason to limit this logic to dynamic games. It could just as well be applied in a repeated game, where it is unreasonably restrictive, because nothing is payoff relevant in the sense typically used when discussing dynamic games. Insisting on Markov equilibria in the repeated prisoners’dilemma, for example, dooms the players to perpetual shirking. More generally, a Markov equilibrium in a repeated game must play a stage-game Nash equilibrium in every period, and a stationary Markov equilibrium must play the same one in every period. Remark Three types of state We now have three notions of a state to juggle. One is Markov

5.5.2 state, an equivalence class of histories in which distinctions are payoff irrelevant. The second is game state, an element of the set S of states determining the stage game in a dynamic game. Though it is often taken for granted that the set of Markov states can be identiﬁed with the set of game states, as we will see in section 5.6, these are distinct concepts. Game states may not always be payoff relevant and, more important, we can identify Markov states without any a priori speciﬁcation of a game state. Finally, we have automaton states, states in an automaton representing a strategy proﬁle. Because continuation payoffs in a repeated game depend on the current automaton state, and only on this state, some researchers take the set of automata states as the set of Markov states. This practice unfortunately robs the Markov notion and payoff relevance of any independent meaning. The particular notion of payoff relevance inherent in labeling automaton states Markov is much less restrictive than that often intended to be captured by Markov perfection. For example, Markov perfection then imposes no restrictions beyond subgame perfection in repeated games, because any subgame-perfect equilibrium proﬁle has an automaton representation, in contrast to the trivial equilibria that appear if we at least equate Markov states with game states. ◆ 5.5.3 Examples Example Suppose that players 1 and 2 draw ﬁsh from a common pool. In each period

5.5.2 t, the pool contains a stock of ﬁsh of size s t ∈ R+ . In period t, player i extracts ait ≥ 0 units of ﬁsh, and derives payoff ln(ait ) from extracting ait .21 The remaining 20. If the function u(s, a) is constant over some values of s, then we could impose yet further restrictions. 21. We must have a1t + a2t ≤ s t . We can model this by allowing the players to choose extraction levels a¯ 1t and a¯ 2t , with these levels realized if feasible and with a rationing rule otherwise determining realized extraction levels. This constraint will not play a role in the equilibrium, and so we leave the rationing rule unspeciﬁed and treat ait and a¯ it as identical.

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Dynamic Games: Introduction

(depleted) stock of ﬁsh doubles before the next period. This gives a dynamic game with actions and states drawn from the inﬁnite set [0, ∞), identifying the current quantity of ﬁsh extracted (actions) and the current stock of ﬁsh (states), and with the deterministic transition function s t+1 = 2(s t − a1t − a2t ). The initial stock is ﬁxed at some value s 0 . We ﬁrst calculate a stationary Markov equilibrium of this game, in which the players choose identical strategies. That is, although we assume that the players choose Markov strategies in equilibrium, the result is a strategy proﬁle that is optimal in the full strategy set—there are no superior strategies, Markov or otherwise. We are thus calculating not an equilibrium in the game in which players are restricted to Markov strategies but Markov strategies that are an equilibrium of the full game. The restriction to Markov strategies allows us to introduce a function V (s) identifying the equilibrium value (conditional on the equilibrium strategy proﬁle) in any continuation game induced by an ex post history ending in state s. Let g t (s 0 ) be the amount of ﬁsh extracted by each player at time t, given the period 0 stock s 0 and the (suppressed, in the notation) equilibrium strategies. The function V (s 0 ) identiﬁes equilibrium utilities, and hence must satisfy

V (s 0 ) = (1 − δ)

∞

δ t ln(g t (s 0 )).

(5.5.1)

t=0

Imposing the Markov restriction that current actions depend only on the current state, let each player’s strategy be given by a function a(s) identifying the amount of ﬁsh to extract given that the current stock is s. We then solve jointly for the function V (s) and the equilibrium strategy a(s). First, the one-shot deviation principle (which we describe in section 5.7.1) allows us to characterize the function a(s) as solving, for any s ∈ S and for each player i, the Bellman equation, ˜ + δV (2(s − a˜ − a(s))), a(s) ∈ arg max(1 − δ) ln(a) a∈A ˜ i

where a˜ is player i’s consumption and the a(s) in the ﬁnal term captures the assumption that player j adheres to the candidate equilibrium strategy. If the value function V is differentiable, the implied ﬁrst-order condition is (1 − δ) = 2δV (2(s − 2a(s))). a(s) To ﬁnd an equilibrium, suppose that a(s) is given by a linear function, so that a(s) = ks. Then we have s t+1 = 2(s t − 2ks t ) = 2(1 − 2k)s t . Using this and a(s) = ks to recursively replace g t (s) in (5.5.1), we have V (s) = (1 − δ)

∞ t=0

δ t ln[k(2(1 − 2k))t s],

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and so V is differentiable with V (s) = 1/s. Solving the ﬁrst-order condition, k = (1 − δ)/(2 − δ), and so a(s) = and

1−δ s 2−δ

V (s) = (1 − δ)

∞ t=0

1−δ s δ ln 2−δ

t

2δ 2−δ

t .

We interpret this expression by noting that in each period, proportion 1 − 2a(s) = 1 − 2

δ 1−δ = 2−δ 2−δ

of the stock is preserved until the next period, where it is doubled, so that the stock grows at rate 2δ/(2 − δ). In each period, each player consumes fraction (1 − δ)/(2 − δ) of this stock. Notice that in this solution, the stock of resource grows without bound if the players are sufﬁciently patient (δ > 2/3), though payoffs remain bounded, and declines to extinction if δ < 2/3. As is expected from these types of common pool resource problems, this equilibrium is inefﬁcient. Failing to take into account the externality that their extraction imposes on their partner’s future consumption, each player extracts too much (from an efﬁciency point of view) in each period. This stationary Markov equilibrium is not the only equilibrium of this game. To construct another equilibrium, we ﬁrst calculate the largest symmetric payoff proﬁle that can be achieved when the ﬁrms choose identical Markov strategies. Again representing the solution as a linear function a = ks, we can write the appropriate Bellman equation as ˜ + δ(1 − δ) a(s) = argmax 2(1 − δ) ln(a) a∈A ˜ i

∞

δ t 2 ln(k(2(1 − 2k))t (s − 2a)). ˜

t=0

Taking a derivative with respect to a˜ and simplifying, we ﬁnd that the efﬁcient solution is given by 1−δ s. a(s) = 2 As expected, the efﬁcient solution extracts less than does the Markov equilibrium. The efﬁcient solution internalizes the externality that player i’s extraction imposes on player j , through its effect on future stocks of ﬁsh. Under the efﬁcient solution, we have 1−δ = 2δs t , s t+1 = 2s t 1 − 2 2 and hence s t = (2δ)t s 0 . The stock of the resource grows without bound if δ > 1/2. Notice also that just as we earlier solved for Markov strategies that are an equilibrium in the complete strategy set, we have now found Markov strategies that maximize total expected payoffs over the set of all strategies.

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Dynamic Games: Introduction

181

We can support the efﬁcient solution as a (non-Markov) equilibrium of the repeated game, if the players are sufﬁciently patient. Let strategies prescribe the efﬁcient extraction after every history in which the quantity extracted has been efﬁcient in each previous period, and prescribe the Markov equilibrium extraction a(s) = [(1 − δ)/(2 − δ)]s otherwise. Then for sufﬁciently large δ, we have an equilibrium. ●

Example Consider a market with a single good, produced by a monopoly ﬁrm facing a

5.5.3 continuum of small, anonymous consumers.22 We think of the ﬁrm as a long-lived player and interpret the consumers as short-lived players. The good produced by the ﬁrm is durable. The good lasts forever, subject to continuous depreciation at rate η, so that 1 unit of the good purchased at time 0 depreciates to e−ηt units of the good at time t. This durability makes this a dynamic rather than repeated game. Time is divided into discrete periods of length , with the ﬁrm making a new production choice at the beginning of each period. We will subsequently be interested in the limiting case as becomes very short. The players in the model discount at the continuously compounded rate r. For a period of length , the discount factor is thus e−r . The stock of the good in period t is denoted x(t). The stock includes the quantity that the ﬁrm has newly produced in period t, as well as the depreciated remnants of past production. Though the ﬁrm’s period t action is the period t quantity of production, it is more convenient to treat the ﬁrm as choosing the stock x(t). The ﬁrm thus chooses a sequence of stocks {x(0), x(1), . . .}, subject to x(t) ≥ e−η x(t − 1).23 Producing a unit of the good incurs a constant marginal cost of c. Consumers take the price path as given, believing that their own consumption decisions cannot inﬂuence future prices. Rather than modeling consumers’ maximization behavior directly, we represent it with the inverse demand curve f (x) = 1 − x. We interpret f (x) as the instantaneous valuation consumers attach to x units of the durable good. We must now translate this into our setting with periods of length . The value per unit a consumer assigns to acquiring a quantity x at the beginning of a period and used only throughout that period, with no previous or further purchases, is

F (x) =

f (xe−ηs )e−(r+η)s ds

0

=

1 1 (1 − e−(r+η) ) − x (1 − e−(r+2η) ) r +η r + 2η

≡ θ − βx. 22. For a discussion of durable goods monopoly problems, see Ausubel, Cramton, and Deneckere (2002). The example in this section is taken from Bond and Samuelson (1984, 1987). The introduction of depreciation simpliﬁes the example, but is not essential to the results (Ausubel and Deneckere 1989). 23. Because this constraint does not bind in the equilibrium we construct, we can ignore it.

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Because the good does not disappear at the end of the period, the period t price (reflecting current and future values) given the sequence x(t) ≡ {x(t), x(t + 1), . . .} of period t and future stocks of the good, is given by p(t, x(t)) =

∞

e−(r+η)s F (x(t + s)).

s=0

The ﬁrm’s expected payoff in period t, given the sequence of actions x(t − 1) and x(t), is given by24 ∞

(x(τ ) − x(τ − 1)e−η )(p(τ, x(τ )) − c)e−r(τ −t) .

τ =t

If the good were perishable, this would be a relatively straightforward intertemporal price discrimination problem. The durability of the good complicates the relationship between current prices and future actions. We begin by seeking a stationary Markov equilibrium. The state variable in period t is the stock x(t − 1) chosen in the previous period. The ﬁrm’s strategy is described by a function x(t) = g(x(t − 1)), giving the period t stock as a function of the previous period’s stock. However, a more ﬂexible description of the ﬁrm’s strategy is more helpful. We consider a function g(s, t, x), identifying the period s stock, given that the stock in period t ≤ s is x. Hence, we build into our description of the Markov strategy the observation that if period t’s stock is a function of period t − 1’s, then so is period t + 2’s stock a (different) function of x(t − 1), and so is x(t + 3), and so on. To ensure this representation of the ﬁrm’s strategy is coherent, we impose the consistency condition that g(s , t, x) = g(s , s, g(s, t, x)) for s ≥ s ≥ t. In addition, g(s + τ, s, x) must equal g(t + τ, t, x) for s = t, so that the same state variable produces identical continuation behavior, regardless of how it is reached and regardless of when it is reached. The ﬁrm’s proﬁt maximization problem, in any period t, is to choose the sequence of stocks {x(t), x(t + 1), . . . , } to maximize V (x(t), t | x(t − 1)) ∞ [x(τ ) − x(τ − 1)e−η ](p(τ, x(τ )) − c)e−r(τ −t) =

=

(5.5.2)

τ =t ∞

[x(τ ) − x(τ − 1)e−η ]

τ =t

×

∞

e−(r+η)s (θ − βg(s + τ, τ, x(τ ))) − c e−r(τ −t) .

(5.5.3)

s=0

In making the substitution for p(τ, x(τ )) that brings us from (5.5.2) to (5.5.3), g(s + τ, τ, x(τ )) describes consumers’expectations of the ﬁrm’s future stocks and 24. Notice that we must specify the stock in period t − 1 because this combines with x(t) to determine the quantity produced and sold in period t.

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so their own future valuations. To ﬁnd an optimal strategy for the ﬁrm, we differentiate V (x(t), t | x(t − 1)) with respect to x(t ) for t ≥ t to obtain a ﬁrst-order condition for the latter. In doing so, we hold the values x(τ ) for τ = t ﬁxed, so that the ﬁrm chooses x(τ ) and x(t ) independently. However, consumer expectations are given by the function g(s + τ, τ, x(τ )), which builds in a relationship between the current stock and anticipated future stocks that determines current prices. Fix t ≥ t ≥ 0. The ﬁrst-order condition dV (x(t), t | x(t − 1))/dx(t ) = 0 is, from (5.5.3), [θ − βx(t ) − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] − β[x(t ) − e−η x(t − 1)]

∞

e−(r+η)s

s=0

Using

x(t )

=

g(t , t, x(t)),

% dg(t + s, t , x) %% = 0. % dx x=x(t )

we rewrite this as

[θ − βg(t , t, x(t)) − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] − β[g(t , t, x(t)) − e−η g(t − 1, t, x(t))] ∞ −(r+η)s dg(t + s, t , g(t , t, x(t))) × e = 0. dx s=0

As is typically the case, this difference equation is solved with the help of some informed guesswork. We posit g(s, t, x) takes the form ¯ g(s, t, x) = x¯ + µs−t (x − x), where we interpret x¯ as a limiting stock of the good and µ as identifying the rate at which the stock adjusts to this limit. With this form for g, it is immediate that the ﬁrst-order conditions characterize the optimal value of x(t ). Substituting this expression into our ﬁrst-order condition gives, 1 − e−η θ − c(1 − e−(r+η) ) − β x¯ 1 + 1 − e−(r+η) µ µ − e−η − βµt −t−1 (x − x) ¯ µ+ = 0. 1 − e−(r+η) µ Because this equation must hold for all t , we conclude that each expression in braces must be 0. We can solve the second for µ and then insert in the ﬁrst to solve for x, ¯ yielding √ 1 − 1 − e−(r+2η) µ= e−(r+η) and √ 1 − e−(r+2η) [θ − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] . x¯ = √ β ( 1 − e−(r+2η) + 1 − e−η ) Notice ﬁrst that µ < 1. The stock of good produced by the monopoly thus converges monotonically to the limiting stock x. ¯ In the expression for the limit x, ¯ [θ − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] β

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is the competitive stock. Maintaining the stock at this level in every period gives p(t, x) = c, and hence equality of price and marginal cost. The term √

1 − e−(r+2η) ≡ γ (, η) √ ( 1 − e−(r+2η) + 1 − e−η )

(5.5.4)

then gives the ratio between the monopoly’s limiting stock of good and the competitive stock. The following properties follow immediately from (5.5.4): γ (, η) < 1, lim γ (, η) =

(5.5.5)

1 2,

(5.5.6)

γ (, 0) = 1,

(5.5.7)

lim γ (, η) = 1.

(5.5.8)

η→∞

and

→0

Condition (5.5.5) indicates that the monopoly’s limiting stock is less than that of a competitive market. Condition (5.5.6) shows that as the depreciation rate becomes arbitrarily large, the limiting monopoly quantity is half that of the competitive market, recovering the familiar result for perishable goods. Condition (5.5.7) indicates that if the good is perfectly durable, then the limiting monopoly quantity approaches that of the competitive market. As the competitive stock is approached, the price-cost margin collapses to 0. With a positive depreciation rate, it pays to keep this margin permanently away from 0, so that positive proﬁts can be earned on selling replacement goods to compensate for the continual deprecation. As the rate of depreciation goes to 0, however, this source of proﬁts evaporates and proﬁts are made only on new sales. It is then optimal to extract these proﬁts, to the extent that the price-cost margin is pushed to 0. Condition (5.5.8) shows that as the period length goes to 0, the stock again approaches the competitive stock. If the stock stops short of the competitive stock, every period brings the monopoly a choice between simply satisfying the replacement demand, for a proﬁt that is proportional to the length of the period, or pushing the price lower to sell new units to additional consumers. The latter proﬁt is proportional to the price and hence must overwhelm the replacement demand for short time periods, leading to the competitive quantity as the length of a period becomes arbitrarily short. More important, because the adjustment factor µ is also a function of , by applying l’Hôpital’s rule to −1 ln µ, one can show that 1

lim µ = 0.

→0

Hence, as the period length shrinks to 0, the monopoly’s output path comes arbitrarily close to an instantaneous jump to the competitive quantity.25 Consumers 25. At calender time T , T / periods have elapsed, and so, as → 0, x(T /) → x. ¯

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build this behavior into their pricing behavior, ensuring that prices collapse to marginal cost and the ﬁrm’s proﬁts collapse to 0. This is the Coase conjecture in action.26 How should we think about the Markov restriction that lies behind this equilibrium? The key question facing a consumer, when evaluating a price, concerns how rapidly the ﬁrm is likely to expand the stock and depress the price in the future. The ﬁrm will ﬁrmly insist that there is nary a price reduction in sight, a claim that the consumer would do well to treat with some skepticism. One obvious place for the consumer to look in assessing this claim is the ﬁrm’s past behavior. Has the price been sitting at nearly its current level for a long time? Or has the ﬁrm been racing down the demand curve, having charged ten times as much only periods ago? Markov strategies insist that consumers ignore such information. If consumers ﬁnd the information relevant, then we have moved beyond Markov equilibria. To construct an alternative equilibrium with quite different properties, let xR =

[θ − c(1 − e−(r+η) )] . 2β

This is half the quantity produced in a competitive market. Choosing this stock in every period maximizes the ﬁrm’s proﬁts over the set of Nash equilibria of the repeated game.27 Now let H ∗ be the set of histories in which the stock xR has been produced in every previous period. Notice that this includes the null history. Then consider the ﬁrm’s strategy x(ht ), giving the current stock as a function of the history ht , given by x(h ) = t

if ht ∈ H ∗ ,

xR ,

g(t, t − 1, x(t − 1)), otherwise,

where g(·) is the Markov equilibrium strategy calculated earlier. In effect, the ﬁrm “commits” to produce the proﬁt-maximizing quantity xR , with any misstep prompting a switch to continuing with the Markov equilibrium. Let σ R denote this strategy and the attendant best response for consumers. It is now straightforward that σ R is a subgame-perfect equilibrium, as long as the length of a period is sufﬁciently short. To see this, let U (σ R | x) be the monopoly’s continuation payoff from this strategy, given that the current stock is x ≤ xR . We are interested in the continuation payoffs given stock xR , or U (σ

R

| xR ) =

∞ τ =0

=

e

−rτ

(1 − e

−η

)xR − c +

∞

e

−(r+η)s

s=0 −(r+η) ) − c(1 − e )]

(1 − e−η )[F (xR (1 − e−r )(1 − e−(r+η) )

F (xR )

xR .

26. Notice that in examining the limiting case of short time periods, depreciation has added nothing other than extra terms to the model. 27. This quantity maximizes [θ − βx − c(1 − e−(r+η) )]x, and hence is the quantity that would be produced in each period by a ﬁrm that retained ownership of the good and rented its services to the customers. A ﬁrm who sells the good can earn no higher proﬁts.

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The key observation now is that lim U (σ R | xR ) > 0.

→∞

Even as time periods become arbitrarily short, there are positive payoffs to be made by continually replacing the depreciated portion of the proﬁt-maximizing quantity xR . In contrast, as we have seen, as time periods shorten, the continuation payoff of the Markov equilibrium, from any initial stock, approaches 0. This immediately yields: Proposition There exists ∗ such that, if < ∗ , then strategies σ R are a subgame-perfect

5.5.1 equilibrium. This example illustrates that a Markov restriction can make a great difference in equilibrium outcomes. One may or may not be convinced that a focus on Markov equilibria is appropriate, but one cannot rationalize the restriction simply as an analytical convenience. ●

5.6

Dynamic Games: Foundations

What determines the set S of states for a dynamic game? At ﬁrst the answer seems obvious—states are things that affect payoffs, such as the stock of ﬁsh in example 5.5.2 or the stock of durable good in example 5.5.3. However, matters are not always so clear. For example, our formulation of repeated games in chapter 2 allows players to condition their actions on a public random variable. Are these realizations states, in the sense of a dynamic game, and does Markov equilibrium allow behavior to be conditioned on such realizations? Alternatively, consider the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma. It initially appears as if there are no payoff-relevant states, so that Markov equilibria must feature identical behavior after every history and hence must feature perpetual shirking. Suppose, however, that we deﬁned two states, an effort state and a shirk state. Let the game begin in the effort state, and remain there as along as there has been no shirking, being otherwise in the shirk state. Now let players’ strategies prescribe effort in the effort state and shirking in the shirk state. We now have a Markov equilibrium (for sufﬁciently patient players) featuring effort. Are these states real, or are they a sleight of hand? In general, we can deﬁne payoffs for a dynamic game as functions of current and past actions, without resorting to the idea of a state. As a result, it can be misleading to think of the set of states as being exogenously given. Instead, if we would like to work with the notions of payoff relevance and Markov equilibrium, we must endogenously infer the appropriate set of states from the structure of payoffs. This section pursues this notion of a state, following Maskin and Tirole (2001). We examine a game with players 1, . . . , n. Each player i has the set Ai of stage-game actions available in each period. Hence, the set of feasible actions is again independent

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of history.28 Player i’s payoff is a function of the outcome path a ∈ A∞ . This formulation is sufﬁciently general to cover the dynamic games of section 5.6. Deterministic transitions are immediately covered because the history of actions ht determines the state s reached in period t. For stochastic transitions, such as example 5.5.1, introduce an artiﬁcial player 0, nature, with action space A0 = S and constant payoffs; random state transitions correspond to the appropriate ﬁxed behavior strategy for player 0. In what follows, the term players refers to players i ≥ 1, and histories include nature’s moves. Let σ be a pure strategy proﬁle and ht a history. Then we write Ui∗ (σ | ht ) for player i’s payoffs given history ht and the subsequent continuation strategy proﬁle σ |ht . This is in general an expected value because future utilities may depend randomly on past play, for the same reason that the current state in a model with exogenously speciﬁed states may depend randomly on past actions. Note that Ui∗ (σ | ht ) is not, in general, the continuation payoff from σ |ht . For example, for a repeated game in the class of chapter 2, Ui∗ (σ

| (a , a , . . . , a 0

1

t−1

)) =

t−1

δ τ ui (a τ ) + δ t Ui (σ |(a 0 ,a 1 ,...,a t−1 ) ),

τ =0

where ui is the stage game payoff and Ui is given by (2.1.2). In this case, Ui∗ (σ | ht ) and Ui∗ (σ | hˆ t ) differ by only a constant if the continuation strategies σ |ht and σ |hˆ t are identical, and history is important only for its role in coordinating future behavior. This dual role of histories in a dynamic game gives rise to ambiguity in deﬁning states. Suppose two histories induce different continuation payoffs. Do these differences arise because differences in future play are induced, in which case the histories would not satisfy the usual notion of being payoff relevant (though it can still be critical to take note of the difference), or because identical continuation play gives rise to different payoffs? Can we always tell the difference? 5.6.1 Consistent Partitions Let H t be the set of period t histories. Notice that we have no notion of a state in this context, and hence no distinction between ex ante and ex post histories. A period t history is an element of At . A partition of H t is denoted Ht , and Ht (ht ) is the partition element containing history ht . t A sequence of partitions {Ht }∞ t=0 is denoted H; viewed as ∪t H , H is a partition of the set of all histories H = ∪t H t . We often ﬁnd it convenient to work with several such sequences, one associated with each player, denoting them by H1 , . . . , Hn . Given such a collection of partitions, we say that two histories ht and hˆ t are i-equivalent if ht ∈ Hit (hˆ t ). A strategy σi is measurable with respect to Hi if, for every pair of histories ht and ˆht with ht ∈ Ht (hˆ t ), the continuation strategy σi |ht equals σi | ˆ t . Let i (H) denote the i h set of pure strategies for player i that are measurable with respect to the partition H. 28. If this were not the case, then we would ﬁrst partition the set of period t histories H t into subsets that feature the same feasible choices for each player i in period t and then work throughout with reﬁnements of this partition, to ensure that our subsequent measurability requirements were feasible.

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A collection of partitions {H1t , . . . , Hnt }∞ t=0 is consistent if for every player i, whenever other players’ strategies σ−i are measurable with respect to their partition, then for any pair of i-equivalent period t histories ht and hˆ t , player i has the same preferences over i’s continuation strategies. Hence, consistency requires that for any player i, pure strategies σj ∈ j (Hj ) for all j = i, and i-equivalent histories ht and hˆ t , there exist constants θ and β > 0 such that Ui∗ ((σi , σ−i ) | ht ) = θ + βUi∗ ((σi , σ−i ) | hˆ t ). If this relationship holds, conditional on the (measurable) strategies of the other players, i’s utilities after histories ht and hˆ t are afﬁne transformations of one another. We represent this by writing Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | ht ) ∼ Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | hˆ t ).

(5.6.1)

We say that two histories ht and hˆ t , with the property that player i has the same preferences over continuation payoffs given these histories (as just deﬁned) are ipayoff equivalent. Consistency of a partition is thus the condition that equivalence (under the partition) implies payoff equivalence. The idea now is to deﬁne a Markov equilibrium as a subgame-perfect equilibrium that is measurable with respect to a consistent collection of partitions. To follow this program through, two additional steps are required. First, we establish conditions under which consistent partitions have some intuitively appealing properties. Second, there may be many consistent partitions, some of them more interesting than others. We show that a maximal consistent partition exists, and use this one to deﬁne Markov equilibria.

5.6.2 Coherent Consistency One might expect a consistent partition to have two properties. First, we might expect players to share the same partition. Second, we might expect the elements of the period t partition to be subsets of partition in period t − 1, so that the partition is continually reﬁned. Without some additional mild conditions, both of these properties can fail. Lemma Suppose that for any players i and j , any period t, and any i-equivalent histories

5.6.1 ht and hˆ t , there exists a repeated-game strategy proﬁle σ and stage-game actions aj and aj such that Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | (ht , aj )) ∼ Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | (hˆ t , aj )).

(5.6.2)

Then if (H1 , . . . , Hn ) is a consistent collection of partitions, then in every period t and for all players i and j , Hit = Hjt . The expression Ui∗ ((σi , σ−i ) | (ht , aj )) gives player i’s payoffs, given that ht has occurred and given that player j chooses aj in period t, with behavior otherwise speciﬁed by (σi , σ−i ). Condition (5.6.2) then requires that player i’s preferences, given (ht , aj ) and (hˆ t , aj ), not be afﬁne transformations of one another.

5.6

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Dynamic Games: Foundations

189

Proof Let ht and hˆ t be i-equivalent. Choose a player j and suppose the strategy proﬁle

σ and actions aj and aj satisfy (5.6.2). We suppose ht and hˆ t are not j -equivalent (and derive a contradiction). Then player j ’s strategy of playing as in σ , except playing aj after histories in Hj (ht ) and aj after histories in Hj (hˆ t ) is measurable with respect to Hj . But then (5.6.2) contradicts (5.6.1): Player i’s partition is not consistent (condition (5.6.2)), as assumed (condition (5.6.1)). ■

To see the argument behind this proof, suppose that a period t arrives in which player i and j partition their histories differently. We exploit this difference to construct a measurable strategy for player j that differs across histories within a single element of player i’s partition, in a way that affects player i’s preferences over continuation play. This contradicts the consistency of player i’s partition. There are two circumstances under which such a contradiction may not arise. One is that all players have the same partition, precluding the construction of such a strategy. This leads to the conclusion of the theorem. The other possibility is that we may not be able to ﬁnd the required actions on the part of player j that affect i’s preferences. In this case, we have reached a point at which, given a player i history ht ∈ Hi (ht ), there is nothing player j can do in period t that can have any effect on how player i evaluates continuation play. Such degeneracies are possible (Maskin and Tirole, 2001, provide an example), but we hereafter exclude them, assuming that the sufﬁcient conditions of lemma 5.6.1 hold throughout. We can thus work with a single consistent partition H and can refer to histories as being “equivalent” and “payoff equivalent” rather than i-equivalent and i-payoff equivalent. We are now interested in a similar link between periods. Lemma Suppose that for any players i and j , and period t, any equivalent histories ht and

5.6.2 hˆ t , and any stage-game action proﬁle a t , there exists a repeated-game strategy proﬁle σ and player j actions ajt+1 and a˜ jt+1 such that t t Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | (ht , a−i , ajt+1 )) ∼ Ui∗ ((·, σ−i ) | (hˆ t , a−i , a˜ jt+1 )).

(5.6.3)

If (H1 , . . . , Hn ) is a consistent collection of partitions under which ht and hˆ t are equivalent histories, then for any action proﬁle a t , (ht , a t ) and (hˆ t , a t ) are equivalent. Proof Fix a consistent collection H = (H1 , . . . , Hn ) and an action proﬁle a t . Suppose

ht and hˆ t are equivalent, and the action proﬁle a t , strategy σ , and player j actions ajt+1 and a˜ jt+1 satisfy (5.6.3). The strategy for every player k other than i and j that plays according to σk , except for playing akt in period t, is measurable with respect to H. We now suppose that (ht , a t ) and (hˆ t , a t ) are not equivalent and derive a contradiction. In particular, the player j strategy of playing ajt+1 and then playing

according to σj , after any history ht+1 ∈ H((ht , a t )), and otherwise playing a˜ jt+1 (followed by σj ) is then measurable with respect to H and from (5.6.3), allows us to conclude that ht and hˆ t are not equivalent (recall (5.6.1)), the contradiction. ■

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The conditions of this lemma preclude cases in which player j ’s behavior in period t + 1 has no effect on player i’s period t continuation payoffs. If the absence of such an effect, the set of payoff-relevant states in period t + 1 can be coarser than the set in period t.29 We say that games satisfying the conditions of lemmas 5.6.1 and 5.6.2 are nondegenerate and hereafter restrict attention to such games. 5.6.3 Markov Equilibrium There are typically many consistent partitions. The trivial partition, in which every history constitutes an element, is automatically consistent. There is clearly nothing to be gained in deﬁning a Markov equilibrium to be measurable with respect to this collection of partitions, because every strategy would then be Markov. Even if we restrict attention to nontrivial partitions, how do we know which one to pick? The obvious response is to examine the maximally coarse consistent partition, meaning a consistent partition that is coarser than any other consistent partition.30 This will impose the strictest version of the condition that payoff-irrelevant events should not matter. Does such a partition exist? Proposition Suppose the game is nondegenerate (i.e., satisﬁes the hypotheses of lemmas 5.6.1

5.6.1 and 5.6.2). A maximally coarse consistent partition exists. If the stage game is ﬁnite, then this maximally coarse consistent partition is unique. Proof Let be the set of all consistent partitions of histories. Endow this set with the

ˆ ≺ H if H is a coarsening of H. ˆ We show that there partial order ≺ deﬁned by H exists a maximal element under this partial order, unique for ﬁnite games. This argument proceeds in two steps. The ﬁrst is to show that there exist maximal elements. This in turn follows from Zorn’s lemma (Hrbacek and Jech 1984, p. 171), if we can show that every chain (i.e., totally ordered subset) C = {H(m) }∞ m=1 admits an upper bound. Let H(∞) denote the ﬁnest common coarsening (or meet) of C , that is, for each element h ∈ H , H(∞) (h) = ∪∞ m=1 H(m) (h). Because C is a chain, H(m) (h) ⊂ H(m+1) (h), and so H(∞) is a partition that is coarser than every partition in C . It remains to show that H(∞) is consistent. To do this, suppose that two histories ht and hˆ t are contained in a common element of H(∞) . Then they must be contained in some common element of H(m) for some m, and hence must satisfy (5.6.1). This ensures that H(∞) is consistent, and so is an upper bound for the chain. Hence by Zorn’s lemma, there is a maximally coarse consistent partition. The second step is to show that there is a unique maximal element for ﬁnite stage games. To do this, it sufﬁces to show that for any two consistent partitions, ˆ be contheir meet (i.e., ﬁnest common coarsening) is consistent. Let H and H t t ¯ be their meet. Suppose h and hˆ are contained in a sistent partitions, and let H ˆ t are both ﬁnite ¯ Because the stage game is ﬁnite, Ht and H single element of H. partitions. Then, by the deﬁnition of meet, there is a ﬁnite sequence of histories

29. Again, Maskin and Tirole (2001) provide an example. 30. A partition H is a coarsening of another partition H if for all H ∈ H there exists H ∈ H such that H ⊂ H .

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{ht , ht (1), . . . , ht (n), hˆ t } such that each adjacent pair is contained in either the ˆ t , and hence satisfy payoff equivasame element of Ht or the same element of H t t lence. But then h and hˆ must be payoff equivalent, which sufﬁces to conclude ¯ is consistent. that H ■

Denote the maximally coarse consistent partition by

H∗ .

Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a Markov strategy proﬁle if it is measurable with respect

5.6.1 to the maximally coarse consistent partition H∗ . A strategy proﬁle is a Markov equilibrium if it is a subgame-perfect equilibrium and it is Markov. Elements of the partition H∗ are called Markov states or payoff-relevant histories. No difﬁculty arises in ﬁnding a Markov equilibrium in a repeated game, because one can always simply repeat the Nash equilibrium of the stage game, making history completely irrelevant. This is a reﬂection of the fact that in a repeated game, the maximally coarse partition is the set of all histories. Indeed, all Markov equilibria feature a Nash equilibrium of the stage game in every period. Repeated games have the additional property that every history gives rise to an identical continuation game. As we noted in section 5.5.2, the Markov condition on strategies is commonly supplemented with the additional requirement that identical continuation games feature identical continuation strategies. Such strategies are said to be stationary. A stationary Markov equilibria in a repeated game must feature the same stage-game Nash equilibrium in every period. More generally, it is straightforward to establish the existence of Markov equilibria in dynamic games with ﬁnite stage games and without private information. A backward induction argument ensures that ﬁnite horizon versions of the game have Markov equilibria, and discounting ensures that the limit of such equilibria, as the horizon approaches inﬁnity, is a Markov equilibrium of the inﬁnitely repeated game (Fudenberg and Levine 1983). Now consider dynamic games G in the class described in section 5.5. The set S induces a partition on the set of ex post histories in a natural manner, with two ex post histories being equivalent under this partition if they are histories of the same length and end with the same state s ∈ S. Refer to this partition as HS . Because the continuation G(s) is identical, regardless of the history terminating in s, the following is immediate:

Proposition Suppose G is a dynamic game in the class described in section 5.5. Suppose HS

5.6.2 is the partition of H with h ∈ HS (h ) if h and h are of the same length and both result in the same state s ∈ S. Then, HS is ﬁner than H∗ . If for every pair of states s, s ∈ S, there is at least one player i for which ui (s, a) and ui (s , a) are not afﬁne transformations of one another, then H∗ = HS . The outcomes ω and ω of a public correlating device have no effect on players’ preferences and hence fail the condition that there exist a player i for whom ui (ω, a) and ui (ω , a) are not afﬁne transformations of one another. Therefore, the outcomes of a public correlating device in a repeated game do not constitute states. Markov equilibrium precludes the use of public correlation in repeated games and restricts the players in the prisoners’ dilemma to consistent shirking. Alternatively,

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much of the interest in repeated games focuses on non-Markov equilibria.31 In our view, the choice of an equilibrium is part of the construction of the model. Different choices, including whether Markov or not, may be appropriate in different circumstances, with the choice of equilibrium to be defended not within the conﬁnes of the model but in terms of the strategic interaction being modeled. Remark Games of incomplete information The notion of Markov strategy also plays an

5.6.1 important role in incomplete information games, where the beliefs of uninformed players are often treated as Markov states (see, for example, section 18.4.4). At an intuitive level, this is the appropriate extension of the ideas in this section. However, determining equivalence classes of histories that are payoff-equivalent is now a signiﬁcantly more subtle question. For example, because the inferences that players draw from histories depend on the beliefs that players have about past play, the equivalence classes now must satisfy a complicated ﬁxed point property. Moreover, Markov equilibria (as just deﬁned) need not exist, and this has led to the notion of a weak Markov equilibrium in the literature on bargaining under incomplete information (see, for example, Fudenberg, Levine, and Tirole, 1985). We provide a simple example of a similar phenomenon in section 17.3. ◆

5.7

Dynamic Games: Equilibrium

5.7.1 The Structure of Equilibria This section explores some of the common ground between ordinary repeated games and dynamic games. Recall that we assume either that the set of states S is ﬁnite, or that the transition function is deterministic. The proofs of the various propositions we offer are straightforward rewritings of their counterparts for repeated games in chapter 2 and hence are omitted. We say that strategy σˆ i is a one-shot deviation for player i from strategy σi if there is a unique ex post history h˜ t such that σˆ i (h˜ t ) = σi (h˜ t ). It is then a straightforward modiﬁcation of proposition 2.2.1, substituting ex post histories for histories and replacing payoffs with expected payoffs to account for the potential randomness of the state transition function, to establish a one-shot deviation principle for dynamic games: Proposition A strategy proﬁle σ is subgame perfect in a dynamic game if and only if there are

5.7.1 no proﬁtable one-shot deviations. Given a dynamic game, an automaton is (W , w0 , τ, f ), where W is the set of automaton states, w0 : S → W gives the initial automaton state as a function of the initial game state, τ : W × A × S → W is the transition function giving the automaton 31. This contrast may not be so stark. Maskin and Tirole (2001) show that most non-Markov equilibria of repeated games are limits of Markov equilibria in nearby dynamic games.

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state in the next period as a function of the current automaton state, the current action proﬁle, and the next draw of the game state. Finally, f : W → i (Ai ) is the output function. (Note that this description agrees with remark 2.3.3 when S is the space of realizations of the public correlating device.) The initial automaton state is determined by the initial game state, through the function w0 . We will often be interested in the strategy induced by the automaton beginning with an automaton state w. As in the case of repeated games, we write this as (W , w, τ, f ).32 Let τ (h˜ t ) denote the automaton state reached under the ex post history h˜ t ∈ H˜ t = (S × A)t × S. Hence, for a history {s} that identiﬁes the initial game-state s, we have τ ({s}) = w0 (s) and for any ex post history h˜ t = (h˜ t−1 , a, s), τ (h˜ t ) = τ (τ (h˜ t−1 ), a, s). Given an ex post history h˜ t ∈ H˜ , let s(h˜ t ) denote the current game state in h˜ t . Given a game state s ∈ S, the set of automaton states accessible in game state s is W (s) = {w ∈ W : ∃h˜ t ∈ H˜ , w = τ (h˜ t ), s = s(h˜ t )}.33 Proposition Suppose the strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automaton {W , w0 , τ, f }. Then

5.7.2 σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the dynamic game if and only if for any game state s ∈ S and automaton state w accessible in game state s, the strategy proﬁle induced by {W , w, τ, f }, is a Nash equilibrium of the dynamic game G(s). Our next task is to develop the counterpart for dynamic games of the recursive methods for generating equilibria introduced in section 2.5 for repeated games. Restrict attention to ﬁnite sets of signals (with |S| = m) and pure strategies. For each game state s ∈ S, and each state w ∈ W (s), associate the proﬁle of values Vs (w), deﬁned by Vs (τ (w, f (w), s ))q(s | s, f (w)). Vs (w) = (1 − δ)u(s, f (w)) + δ s ∈S

As is the case with repeated games, Vs (w) is the proﬁle of expected payoffs when beginning the game in game state s and automaton state w. Associate with each game state s ∈ S, and each state w ∈ W (s), the function g (s,w) (a) : A → Rn , where Vs (τ (w, a, s ))q(s | s, a). g (s,w) (a) = (1 − δ)u(s, a) + δ s ∈S

Proposition Suppose the strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automaton (W , w0 , τ, f ). Then

5.7.3 σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if and only if for all game states s ∈ S and all w ∈ W (s), f (w) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoff function g (s,w) . 32. Hence, (W , w0 , τ, f ) is an automaton whose initial state is speciﬁed as a function of the game state, (W , w0 (s), τ, f ) is the automaton whose initial state is given by w0 (s), and (W , w, τ, f ) is the automaton whose initial state is ﬁxed at an arbitrary w ∈ W . 33. Note that w0 (s) is thus accessible in game state s, even if game state s does not have positive probability under q(· | ∅).

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Let W s be a subset of Rn , for s = 1, . . . , m. We interpret this set as a set of feasible payoffs in dynamic game G(s). We say that the pure action proﬁle a ∗ is pure-action enforceable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) given s ∈ S if there exists a function γ : A × S → W 1 ∪ . . . ∪ W m with γ (a, s ) ∈ W s such that for all players i and all ai ∈ Ai , γi (a ∗ , s )q(s | s, a ∗ ) (1 − δ)ui (s, a ∗ ) + δ s ∈S ∗ ≥ (1 − δ)ui (s, ai , a−i )+δ

s ∈S

∗ ∗ γi (ai , a−i , s )q(s | s, ai , a−i ).

We say that the payoff proﬁle v ∈ Rn is pure-action decomposable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) given s ∈ S if there exists a pure action proﬁle a ∗ that is pure-action enforceable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) given s, with the enforcing function γ satisfying, for all players i, γi (a ∗ , s )q(s | s, a ∗ ). vi = (1 − δ)ui (s, a ∗ ) + δ s ∈S

A vector of payoff proﬁles v ≡ (v(1), . . . , v(m)) ∈ Rnm , with v(s) interpreted as a payoff proﬁle in game G(s), is pure-action decomposable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) if for all s ∈ S, v(s) is pure-action decomposable on (W 1 , . . . , W m ) given s. Finally, (W 1 , . . . , W m ) is pure-action self-generating if every vector of payoff proﬁles in s 1 m 34 s∈S W is pure-action decomposable on (W , . . . , W ). We then have: Proposition Any self-generating set of payoffs (W 1 , . . . , W m ) is a set of pure-strategy

5.7.4 subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs. As before, we have the corollary: Corollary The set (W 1∗ , . . . , W m∗ ) of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff

5.7.1 proﬁles is the largest pure-action self-generating collection (W 1 , . . . , W m ). Remark Repeated games with random states For these games (see remark 5.5.1), the set

5.7.1 of ex ante feasible payoffs is independent of last period’s state and action proﬁle. Consequently, it is simpler to work with ex ante continuations in the notions of enforceability, decomposability, and pure-action self-generation. A pure action proﬁle a ∗ is pure-action enforceable in state s ∈ S on W ⊂ Rn if there exists a function γ : A → W with such that for all players i and all ai ∈ Ai , ∗ ∗ ) + δγi (ai , a−i ). (1 − δ)ui (s, a ∗ ) + δγi (a ∗ ) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (s, ai , a−i

The ex post payoff proﬁle v s ∈ Rn is pure-action decomposable in state s on W if there exists a pure-action proﬁle a ∗ that is pure-action enforceable in s on W with the enforcing function γ satisfying v s = (1 − δ)u(s, a ∗ ) + δγ (a ∗ ). An ex ante payoff proﬁle v ∈ Rn is pure-action decomposable on W if there exist ex post payoffs {v s : s ∈ S}, v s pure-action decomposable in s on W , such that v = s s v q(s). Finally, W is pure-action self-generating if every payoff proﬁle in W is pure-action decomposable on W . As usual, any self-generating set of ex ante 34. See section 9.7 on games of symmetric incomplete information (in particular, proposition 9.7.1 and lemma 9.7.1) for an application.

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payoffs is a set of subgame-perfect equilibrium ex ante payoffs, with the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium ex ante payoffs being the largest such set. Section 6.3 analyzes a repeated game with random states in which players have an opportunity to insure one another against endowment shocks. Interestingly, this game is an example in which the efﬁcient symmetric equilibrium outcome is sometimes necessarily nonstationary. It is no surprise that the equilibrium itself might not be stationary, that is, that efﬁciency might call for nontrivial intertemporal incentives and their attendant punishments. However, we have the stronger result that efﬁciency cannot be obtained with a stationary-outcome equilibrium. ◆ 5.7.2 A Folk Theorem This section presents a folk theorem for dynamic games. We assume that the action spaces and the set of states are ﬁnite. Let be the set of pure strategies in the dynamic game and let M be the set of pure Markov strategies. For any σ ∈ , let ∞ U δ (σ ) = E σ (1 − δ) δ t u(s t , a t ) t=0

be the expected payoff proﬁle under strategy σ , given discount factor δ. The expectation accounts not only for the possibility of private randomization and public correlation but also for randomness in state transitions, including the determination of the initial state. We let ∞ δ t σ,ht τ −t τ τ δ u(a , s ) U (σ | h ) = E (1 − δ) τ =t

be the analogous expectation conditioned on having observed the history ht , where continuation play is given by σ |ht . As a special case of this, we have the expected payoff U δ (σ | s), which conditions on the initial state realization s. Let F (δ) = {v ∈ Rnm : ∃σ ∈ M s.t. U δ (σ | s) = v(s) ∀s}. This is our counterpart of the set of payoff proﬁles produced by pure stage-game actions in a repeated game. There are two differences here. First, we identify functions that map from initial states to expected payoff proﬁles. Second, we now work directly with the collection of repeated-game payoffs rather than with stage-game payoffs because we have no single underlying stage game. In doing so, we have restricted attention only to payoffs produced by pure Markov strategies. We comment shortly on the reasons for doing so, and in the penultimate paragraph of this section on the sense in which this assumption is not restrictive. We let F = lim F (δ). δ→1

(5.7.1)

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This is our candidate for the set of feasible pure-strategy payoffs available to patient players. We similarly require a notion of minmax payoffs, which we deﬁne contingent on the current state, viδ (s) = inf sup Uiδ (σ | s) σ−i ∈−i σi ∈i

with vi (s) = lim viδ (s). δ→1

(5.7.2)

Dutta (1995, lemma 2, lemma 4) shows that the limits in (5.7.1) and (5.7.2) exist. The restriction to Markov strategies in deﬁning F (δ) is useful here, as it is relatively easy to show that the payoffs to a pure Markov strategy, in the presence of ﬁnite sets of actions and states, are continuous as δ → 1. Finally, we say that the collection of pure strategies {σ 1 , . . . , σ n } is a playerspeciﬁc punishment for v if the limits U (σ i | s) = limδ→1 U δ (σ i | s) exist and the following hold for all s, s , and s in S: Ui (σ i | s ) < vi (s)

(5.7.3)

vi (s ) < Ui (σ i | s ) < Ui (σ j | s).

(5.7.4)

and

We do not require the player-speciﬁc punishments to be Markov. The inequalities in conditions for player-speciﬁc punishments are required to hold uniformly across states. This imposes a tremendous amount of structure on the payoffs involved in these punishments. We comment in the ﬁnal paragraph of this section on sufﬁcient conditions for the existence of such punishments. We then have the pure-strategy folk theorem. Proposition Let v ∈ F be strictly individually rational, in the sense that for all players i and

5.7.5 pairs of states s and s we have

vi (s) > vi (s ), let v admit a player speciﬁc punishment, and suppose that the players have access to a public correlating device. Then, for any ε > 0, there exists δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium σ whose payoffs U (σ | s) are within ε of v(s) for all s ∈ S. The proof of this proposition follows lines that are familiar from proposition 3.4.1 for repeated games. The additional complication introduced by the dynamic game is that there may now be two reasons to deviate from an equilibrium strategy. One is to obtain a higher current payoff. The other, not found in repeated games, is to affect the transitions of the state. In addition, this latter incentive potentially becomes more powerful as the players become more patient, and hence the beneﬁts of affecting the future state become more important. We describe the basic structure of the proof. Dutta (1995) can be consulted for more details.

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Proof We ﬁx a sequence of values of δ approaching 1 and corresponding strategy proﬁles

σ (δ) with the properties that lim U δ (σ (δ) | s) = v(s).

δ→1

This sequence allows us to approach the desired equilibrium payoffs. Moreover, Dutta (1995, proposition 3) shows that there exists a strategy proﬁle σˆ such that for any η > 0, there exists an integer L(η) such that for all T ≥ L(η) and s ∈ S, E

T −1 1 η ui (s t , a t ) ≤ viδ (s) + , T 2

σˆ ,s

t=0

and hence a value δ1 < 1 such that for δ ∈ (δ1 , 1), E σˆ ,s

T −1 1 ui (s t , a t ) ≤ vi (s) + η. T t=0

Let {σ 1 , . . . , σ n } be the player-speciﬁc punishment for v. Conditions (5.7.3) and (5.7.4) ensure that we can ﬁx δ2 ∈ (δ1 , 1), vi ≡ maxs∈S vi (s) and η sufﬁciently small that, for all δ ∈ (δ2 , 1), all i, and for any states s, s and s , vi (s) + η ≤ vi + η < Uiδ (σ i | s ) < vi (s ) and Uiδ (σ i | s) < Uiδ (σ j | s ). We now note that we can assume, for each player i, that the player-speciﬁc punishment σ i has the property that there exists a length of time Ti such that for each t, t = 0, Ti , 2Ti , . . . , and for all ex ante histories ht and ht and states s, σ i |{ht ,s} = σ i |{ht ,s} . Hence, σ i has a cyclical structure, erasing its history and starting from the beginning every Ti periods.35 We can also assume that σ i provides a payoff to player i that is independent of its initial state.36 We hereafter retain these properties for the player speciﬁc punishments. The strategy proﬁle now mimics that used to prove proposition 3.4.1, the corresponding result for repeated games. It begins with play following the strategy proﬁle σ (δ); any deviation by player i from σ (δ), and indeed any deviation from any subsequent equilibrium prescription other than deviations from being 35. Suppose σ i does not have this property. Because each inequality in (5.7.3) and (5.7.4) holds by at least ε, for some ε, we need only choose Ti sufﬁciently large that the average payoff from any strategy proﬁle over its ﬁrst Ti periods is within at least ε/3 of its payoff. Now construct a new strategy by repeatedly playing the ﬁrst Ti periods of σ i , beginning each time with the null history. This new strategy has the desired cyclic structure and satisﬁes (5.7.3) and (5.7.4). Dutta (1995, section 6.2) provides details. 36. Suppose this is not the case. Let s maximize Ui (σ i | s). Deﬁne a new strategy as follows: In each period 0, Ti , 2Ti , . . . , conduct a state-contingent public correlation that mixes between σ i and a strategy that maximizes player i’s repeated-game payoff, with the correlation set so as to equate the continuation payoff for each state s with Ui (σ i | s). The uniform inequalities of the player-speciﬁc punishments ensure this is possible.

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minmaxed, which are ignored, prompts the ﬁrst L periods of the corresponding minmax strategy σˆ i (δ), followed by the play of the player-speciﬁc punishment σ i . Our task now is to show that these strategies constitute a subgame-perfect equilibrium, given the freedom to restrict attention to large discount factors and choose L ≥ L(η). As usual, let M and m be the maximum and minimum stage-game payoffs. The condition for deviations from the equilibrium path to be unproﬁtable is that, for any state s ∈ S (suppressing the dependence of strategies on δ) (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )(vi + η) + δ L+1 Uiδ (σ i ) ≤ Uiδ (σ | s), which, as δ converges to one for ﬁxed L, becomes Ui (σ i ) ≤ vi (s), which holds with strict inequality by virtue of our assumption that v admits player-speciﬁc punishments. There is then a value δ3 ∈ [δ2 , 1) such that this constraint holds for any δ ∈ (δ3 , 1) and L ≥ L(η). For player j to be unwilling to deviate while minmaxing i, the condition is (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L )(vj + η) + δ L+1 Ujδ (σ j ) ≤ (1 − δ L )m + δ L Ujδ (σ i ). Rewrite this condition as (1 − δ)M + (1 − δ L )(δ(vj + η) − m) + δ L [δUjδ (σ j ) − Ujδ (σ i )] ≤ 0. The term [δUjδ (σ j ) − Ujδ (σ i )] converges to Uj (σ j ) − Uj (σ i ) < 0 as δ → 1. We can then ﬁnd a value δ4 ∈ [δ3 , 1) and an increasing function L(δ) (≥ L(η)) such that this constraint holds for any δ ∈ (δ4 , 1) and the associated L(δ), and such that δ L(δ) < 1 − γ , for some γ > 0. We hereafter take L to be given by L(δ). Now consider the postminmaxing rewards. For player i to be willing to play i σ , a sufﬁcient condition is that for any ex post history h˜ t under which current play is governed by σ i , (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L(δ) )(vi + η) + δ L(δ)+1 Uiδ (σ i ) ≤ Uiδ (σ i | h˜ t ). This inequality is not obvious. The difﬁculty here is that we cannot exclude the possibility that Uiδ (σ i ) > Uiδ (σ i | h˜ t ). There is no reason to believe that player i’s payoff from strategy σ i is constant across time or states. Should player i ﬁnd himself at an ex post history (ht , s) in which this strategy proﬁle gives a particularly low payoff, i may ﬁnd it optimal to deviate, enduring the resulting minmaxing to return to the relatively high payoff of beginning σ i from the beginning. This is the incentive to deviate to affect the state that does not appear in an ordinary repeated game. In addition, this incentive seemingly only becomes stronger as the player gets more patient, and hence the intervening minmaxing becomes less costly. A similar issue arises in the proof of proposition 3.8.1, the folk theorem for repeated games without public correlation, where we faced the fact that the deterministic sequences of payoffs designed to converge to a target payoff may feature continuation values that differ from the target. In the case of proposition 3.8.1,

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199

the response involved a careful balancing of the relative sizes of δ and L. Here, we can use the cyclical nature of the strategy σ i to rewrite this constraint as (1 − δ)M + δ(1 − δ L(δ) )(vi + η) + δ L(δ)+1 Uiδ (σ i ) ≤ (1 − δ Ti )m + δ Ti Uiδ (σ i ), where (1 − δ Ti )m is a lower bound on player i’s payoff from σ i over Ti periods, and then the strategy reverts to payoff Uiδ (σ i ). The key to ensuring this inequality is satisﬁed is to note that Ti is ﬁxed as part of the speciﬁcation of σ i . As a result, limδ→1 δ Ti = 1 while δ L(δ) remains bounded away from 1. A similar argument establishes that a sufﬁciently patient player i has no incentive to deviate when in the middle of strategy σ j . This argument beneﬁts from the fact that a deviation trades a single-period gain for L periods of being minmaxed followed by a return to the less attractive payoff Uiδ (σ i ). Letting δ5 ∈ (δ4 , 1) be the bound on the discount factor to emerge from these two arguments, these strategies constitute a subgame-perfect equilibrium for all δ ∈ (δ5 , 1). ■

We have worked throughout with pure strategies and with pure Markov strategies when deﬁning feasible payoffs. Notice ﬁrst that these are pure strategies in the dynamic game. We are thus not restricting ourselves to the set of payoffs that can be achieved in pure stage-game actions. This makes the pure strategy restriction less severe than it may ﬁrst appear. In addition, any feasible payoff can be achieved by publicly mixing over pure Markov strategies (Dutta 1995, lemma 1), so that the Markov restriction is also not restrictive in the presence of public correlation (which we used in modifying the player-speciﬁc punishments in the proof). Another aspect of this proposition can be more directly traced to the dynamic structure of the game. We have worked with a function v that speciﬁes a payoff proﬁle for each state. Suppose instead we deﬁned, for each s ∈ S, F (δ, s) = {v ∈ Rn : ∃σ ∈ M s.t. U δ (σ | s) = v}, the set of feasible payoffs (in pure Markov strategies) given initial state s, with F (s) = limδ→1 F (δ, s). Let us say that a stochastic game is communicating if for any pair of states s and s , there is a strategy σ and a time t such that if the game begins in state s, there is positive probability under strategy σ that the game is in state s in period t. Dutta (1995, lemma 12) shows that in communicating games, F (s) is independent of s. If the game communicates independently of the actions of player i, for each i, then minmax values will also be independent of the state. In this case, we can formulate the folk theorem for stochastic games in terms of payoff proﬁles v ∈ Rn and minmax proﬁles vi that do not depend on the initial state. In addition, full dimensionality of the convex hull of F then sufﬁces for the existence of player-speciﬁc punishments for interior v. We can establish a similar result in games in which F (δ, s) depends on s (and hence which are not communicating), in terms of payoffs that do not depend on the initial state by concentrating on those payoffs in the set ∩s∈S F (s).

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6 Applications

This chapter offers three examples of how repeated games of perfect monitoring have been used to address questions of economic behavior.

6.1

Price Wars

More stage-game outcomes can be supported as repeated-game equilibrium actions in some circumstances than in others. This section exploits this insight in a simple model of collusion between imperfectly competitive ﬁrms. We are interested in whether successful collusion is likely to be procyclical or countercyclical.1 6.1.1 Independent Price Shocks We consider a market with n ﬁrms who costlessly produce a homogeneous output. In each period of the inﬁnitely repeated game, a state s is ﬁrst drawn from the ﬁnite set S and revealed to the ﬁrms. The state s is independently drawn in each period, with q(s) being the probability of state s. We thus have a repeated game with random states (remarks 5.5.1 and 5.7.1). After observing the states, the ﬁrms simultaneously choose prices for that period. If the state is s and the ﬁrms set prices p1 , . . . , pn , then the quantity demanded is given by s − min{p1 , . . . , pn }. This quantity is split evenly among those ﬁrms who set the minimum price.2 The stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium outcome in which the minimum price is set at 0 in every period and each ﬁrm earns a 0 payoff. This is the mutual minmax payoff for this game. In contrast, the myopic monopoly price in state s is s/2, for a total payoff of (s/2)2 . Higher states feature higher monopoly proﬁts—it is more valuable to (perfectly) collude when demand is high. However, it is also more lucrative to undercut the market price slightly, capturing the entire market at only a slightly smaller price, when demand is high. 1. This example is motivated by Rotemberg and Saloner (1986), who establish conditions under which oligopolistic ﬁrms will behave more competitively when demand is high rather than low. 2. This game violates assumption 2.1.1, because action sets are continua while the payoff function has discontinuities. The existence of a stage-game Nash equilibrium is immediate, so the discontinuity poses no difﬁculties.

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Applications

In the repeated game, the ﬁrms have a common discount factor δ. We consider the strongly symmetric equilibrium that maximizes the ﬁrms’ expected payoffs, which we refer to as the most collusive equilibrium. Along the equilibrium path, the ﬁrms set a price denoted by p(s) whenever the state is s. Given our interest in an equilibrium that maximizes the ﬁrms’ expected payoffs, we can immediately assume that p(s) ≤ s/2, and can assume that deviations from equilibrium play are punished by perpetual minmaxing. Let v ∗ be the expected payoff from such a strategy proﬁle. Necessary and sufﬁcient conditions for the strategy proﬁle to be an equilibrium are, for each state s, 1 (1 − δ)p(s)(s − p(s)) + δv ∗ ≥ (1 − δ)p(s)(s − p(s)), n

(6.1.1)

where v∗ =

1 p(ˆs )(ˆs − p(ˆs ))q(ˆs ). n

(6.1.2)

sˆ ∈S

Condition (6.1.1) ensures that the ﬁrm would prefer to set the prescribed price p(s) and receive the continuation value v ∗ rather than deviate to a slightly smaller price (where the right side is the supremum over such prices) followed by subsequent minmaxing. Condition (6.1.2) gives the continuation value v ∗ , which is independent of the current state. We are interested in the function p(s) that maximizes v ∗ , among those that satisfy (6.1.1)–(6.1.2). For sufﬁciently large δ, the expected payoff v ∗ is maximized by setting p(s) = s/2, the myopic proﬁt maximizing price, for every state s. This reﬂects the fact that the current state of demand fades into insigniﬁcance for high discount factors. Suppose that the discount factor is too low for this to be an equilibrium. In the most collusive equilibrium, the constraint (6.1.1) can be rewritten as nδv ∗ ≥ p(s)(s − p(s)). (n − 1)(1 − δ)

(6.1.3)

Hence, there exists s¯ < max S such that for all s > s¯ , p(s) is the smaller of the two roots solving, from (6.1.3),3 p(s)(s − p(s)) =

nδv ∗ , (n − 1)(1 − δ)

(6.1.4)

and if s¯ ∈ S, then for all s ≤ s¯ , p(s) is the myopic monopoly price p(s) = 2s . It is immediate from (6.1.4) that for s > s¯ , p(s) is decreasing in s, giving countercyclical collusion in high states. The most proﬁtable deviation open to a ﬁrm is to 3. One of the solutions to (6.1.4) is larger than the myopic monopoly price and one smaller, with the latter being the root of interest. Deviations from any price higher than the monopoly price are as proﬁtable as deviations from the monopoly price, so that the inability to enforce the monopoly price ensures that no higher price can be enforced.

6.1

■

203

Price Wars

undercut the equilibrium price by a minuscule margin, jumping from a 1/n share of the market to the entire market, at essentially the current price. The higher the state, the more tempting this deviation. For states s > s¯ , this deviation is proﬁtable if ﬁrms set the monopoly price. They must accordingly set a price lower than the monopoly price, reducing the value of the market and hence the temptation to capture the entire market. The higher the state, and hence the higher the quantity demanded at any given price, the lower must the equilibrium price be to render this deviation unproﬁtable. The function p(s) is thus decreasing for s > s¯ .4 In periods of relatively high demand, colluding ﬁrms set lower prices. 6.1.2 Correlated Price Shocks The demand shocks in section 6.1.1 are independently and identically distributed over time. Future values of the equilibrium path are then independent of the current realization of the demand shock, simplifying the incentive constraint given by (6.1.1). However, this assumption creates some tension with the interpretation of the model as describing how price wars might arise during economic booms or how pricing policies might change over the course of a business cycle. Instead of independent distributions, one might expect the shock describing a business cycle to exhibit some persistence. If this persistence is sufﬁciently strong, then collusion may no longer be countercyclical. It is still especially proﬁtable to cheat on a collusive agreement when demand is high, but continuation payoffs are now also especially lucrative in such states, making cheating more costly. We illustrate these issues with a simple example. Let there be two ﬁrms. Demand can be either high (s = 2) or low (s = 1). The ﬁrms have discount factor δ = 11/20. When demand is low, joint proﬁt maximization requires that each ﬁrm set a price of 1/2, earning a payoff of 1/8. When demand is high, joint proﬁt maximization calls for a price of 1, with accompanying payoff of 1/2. Consider the most collusive equilibrium with independent equally likely shocks. When demand is low, each ﬁrm sets price 1/2. When demand is high, each ﬁrm sets price p, ˜ the highest price for which the high-demand incentive constraint, ˜ − p) ˜ + δ 12 18 + 12 12 p(2 ˜ − p) ˜ , sup [(1 − δ)p(2 − p)] ≤ (1 − δ) 12 p(2 p s¯ . Section 6.1.2 presents an example.

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Applications

Now suppose that the state is given by a Markov process. The prior distribution makes high and low demand equally likely in the ﬁrst period, and thereafter the period t state is identical to the period t−1 state with probability 1 − φ and switches to the other state with probability φ. Suppose φ is quite small, so that rather than being almost independent draws, we have persistent states. Consider a strategy proﬁle in which the myopic monopoly price is set in each period, with deviations again prompting perpetual minmaxing. As φ approaches 0, the continuation value under this proﬁle approaches 1/8 when the current state is low and 1/2 when the current state is high, each reﬂecting the value of receiving half of the monopoly proﬁts in every future period, with the state held ﬁxed at its current value. The incentive constraints for equilibrium approach sup (1 − δ)p(1 − p) ≤ p< 12

1 8

and sup (1 − δ)p(2 − p) ≤ 12 .

p 0 such that if φ ≤ φ ∗ , there exists an equilibrium in which ﬁrms set the myopic monopoly price in each period. Collusion is now procyclical in the sense that higher prices and proﬁts appear when demand is high.5 Repeated games can thus serve as a framework for assessing patterns of collusion over the business cycle, but the conclusions depend importantly on the nature of the cycle.

6.2

Time Consistency

6.2.1 The Stage Game The stage game is a simple model of an economy. Player 1 is a government. The role of player 2 is played by a unit continuum of small and anonymous investor/consumers. As we have noted in section 2.7 (in particular in remark 2.7.1), this has the effect of ensuring that player 2 is a short-lived player when we consider the repeated game. Each consumer is endowed with one unit of a consumption good. The consumer divides this unit between consumption c and capital 1 − c. Capital earns a gross return of R, so that the consumer amasses R(1 − c) units of capital. The government sets a tax rate t on capital, collecting revenue tR(1 − c), with which it produces a public good. One unit of revenue produces γ > 1 of the public good, where R − 1 < γ < R. Untaxed capital is consumed.6 5. Bagwell and Staiger (1997), Haltiwanger and Harrington (1991), and Kandori (1991b) examine variations on this model with correlated shocks, establishing conditions under which collusive behavior is either more or less likely to occur during booms or recessions. 6. In a richer economic environment, period t untaxed capital is the period t+1 endowment, and so investors face a nontrivial intertemporal optimization problem. The essentials of the analysis are unchanged, because small and anonymous investors (while intertemporally optimizing) assume their individual behavior will not affect the government’s behavior. Small and anonymous players who intertemporally optimize appear in example 5.5.3.

6.2

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205

Time Consistency

t 1

A t (c )

γ R

B

R −1 R

C c (t )

1

c

Figure 6.2.1 Consumer best response c(t) as a function of the tax rate t, and government best response t (c) as a function of the consumption c. The unique stage-game equilibrium outcome features c = 1, as at A, whereas the efﬁcient allocation is B and the constrained (by consumer best responses) efﬁcient allocation is C.

The consumer’s utility is given by

√ c + (1 − t)R(1 − c) + 2 G,

(6.2.1)

where G is the quantity of public good. The government chooses its tax rates to maximize the representative consumer’s utility (i.e., the government is benevolent). We examine equilibria in which the consumers choose identical strategies. Each individual consumer makes a negligible contribution to the government’s tax revenues, and accordingly treats G as ﬁxed. The consumer thus chooses c to maximize c + (1 − t)R(1 − c). The consumer’s optimal behavior, as a function of the government’s tax rate t, is then given by: 0, if t < R−1 , R c= 1, if t > R−1 . R When every consumer chooses consumption level c, the government’s best response is to choose the tax rate maximizing ' c + (1 − t)R(1 − c) + 2 γ tR(1 − c), where the government recognizes that the quantity of the public good depends on its tax rate. The government’s optimal tax rate as a function of c is γ ,1 . t = min (6.2.2) R(1 − c) Figure 6.2.1 illustrates the best responses of consumers and the government.7 7. We omit in ﬁgure 6.2.1 the fact that if consumers set c = 1, investing none of their endowment, then the government is indifferent over all tax rates, because all raise a revenue of 0.

206

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Applications

Because the government’s objective is to maximize the consumers’ utilities, it appears as if there should be no conﬂict of interest in this economy. The efﬁcient outcome calls for consumers to set c = 0. Because R > 1, investing in capital is productive, and because the option remains of using the accumulated capital for either consumption or the public good, this ensures that it is efﬁcient to invest all of the endowment. The optimal tax rate (from (6.2.2)) is t = γ /R. This gives the allocation B in ﬁgure 6.2.1.

6.2.2 Equilibrium, Commitment, and Time Consistency It is apparent from ﬁgure 6.2.1 that the stage game has a unique Nash equilibrium outcome in which consumers invest none of their endowment (c = 1) and the government tax rate is set sufﬁciently high as to make investments suboptimal. Outcome A in ﬁgure 6.2.1 is an example.8 No matter what consumers do, the government’s best response is a tax rate above (R − 1)/R, the maximum rate at which consumers ﬁnd it optimal to invest. No equilibrium can then feature positive investment by consumers. Notice that the stage-game equilibrium minmaxes both the consumer and the government. It is impossible to obtain the efﬁcient allocation (B in ﬁgure 6.2.1) as an equilibrium outcome, even in a repeated game. The consumers are not choosing best responses at B, whereas small and anonymous players must play best responses either in a stagegame equilibrium or in each period of a repeated-game equilibrium (section 2.7). Constraining consumers to choose best responses, the allocation that maximizes the government’s (and hence also the consumers’) payoffs is C in ﬁgure 6.2.1. The government sets the highest tax rate consistent with consumers’ investing, given by (R − 1)/R, and the latter invest all of their endowment. Let v¯1 denote the resulting payoff proﬁle for the government (this is the pure-action Stackelberg payoff of section 2.7.2). If the government could choose its tax rate ﬁrst with this choice observed by consumers before they make their investment decisions, then it can guarantee a payoff (arbitrarily close to) v¯1 . In the absence of the ability to do so, we can say that the government has a commitment problem—its payoff could be increased by the ability to commit to a tax rate before consumers make their choices. Alternatively, this is often described as a time consistency problem, or the government is described as having a tax rate ((R − 1)/R) that is optimal but time inconsistent (Kydland and Prescott, 1977). In keeping with the temporal connotation of the phrase, it is common to present the game with a sequential structure. For example, we might let consumers choose their allocations ﬁrst, to be observed by the government, who then chooses a tax rate. The unique subgame-perfect equilibrium of this sequential stage game again features no investment, whereas a better outcome could be obtained if the government could commit to the time-inconsistent tax rate of (R − 1)/R. Alternatively, we might precede either the simultaneous or sequential stage game with a stage at which the government makes a cheap-talk announcement of what its tax rate 8. There are other Nash equilibria in which the government sets a tax rate less than 1 (because the government is indifferent over all tax rates when c = 1), but they all involve c = 1.

6.2

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207

Time Consistency

tc

t *c t ≠ t*

wL

wH

w0 Figure 6.2.2 Candidate equilibrium for repeated game. In the low-tax/ investment state wL , the government chooses t = t ∗ and consumers invest everything, and in the high-tax/no-investment state wH , the government chooses t = 1 and consumers invest nothing.

is going to be. Here, time inconsistency appears in the fact that the government would then prefer an announcement that would induce investment, if there were any, but any such announcement would be followed by an optimal tax rate that rendered the investment suboptimal. Again, this is ultimately the observation that the government’s payoff could be increased by the ability to commit to an action. 6.2.3 The Infinitely Repeated Game Now suppose that the stage game is inﬁnitely repeated, with the government discounting at rate δ.9 As expected, repeated play potentially allows the government to effectively commit to more moderate tax rates. Let t ∗ ≡ (R − 1)/R be the optimal tax rate and consider the strategy proﬁle described by the automaton (W , wL , f, τ ), with states W = {wL , wH }, output function f (w) =

(t ∗ , 0),

if w = wL ,

(1, 1),

if w = wH ,

and transition function (where c is the average consumption), τ (w, (t, c)) =

wL ,

if w = wL and t = t ∗ ,

wH ,

otherwise.

This is a grim-trigger proﬁle with a low-tax/investment state wL and a high-tax/noinvestment state wH . The proﬁle is illustrated in ﬁgure 6.2.2. The government begins with tax rate t ∗ = (R − 1)/R and consumers begin by investing all of their endowment. These actions are repeated, in the absence of deviations, and any deviation prompts a reversion to the permanent play of the (minmaxing) stage-game equilibrium. Because it involves the play of stage-game Nash equilibrium, reversion to perpetual minmaxing is a continuation equilibrium of the repeated game and is also the most severe punishment that can be inﬂicted in the repeated game. The government is not playing a best response along the proposed equilibrium path but refrains from setting higher tax rates to avoid triggering the punishment. 9. The stage game is unchanged, so that in each period capital is either taxed away to support the public good or consumed but cannot be transferred across periods.

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Applications

Proposition There exists δ such that, for all δ ∈ [δ, 1), the strategy proﬁle (W , wL , f, τ ) of

6.2.1 ﬁgure 6.2.2 is a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game in which the constrained efﬁcient allocation (C in ﬁgure 6.2.1) is obtained in every period. Proof Given c = 0, the most proﬁtable deviation by the government is to the optimal

tax rate of γ /R, for a payoff gain of

' R−1 γ + 2γ − R 1 − + 2 γ (R − 1) ≡ > 0. R 1− R R We then need only note that the strategy presented in ﬁgure 6.2.2 is an equilibrium if (1 − δ) ≤ δ(v¯1 − v1 ), where v1 is the government’s minmax payoffs. This inequality holds for sufﬁciently large δ. ■

The tax policy of the government described by the automaton of ﬁgure 6.2.2 is sometimes called a sustainable plan (Chari and Kehoe, 1990). We have presented the simplest possible economic environment consistent with time consistency being an issue. Similar issues arise in more complicated economic environments, where agents (both private and the government) may have contracting opportunities, investment decisions may have intertemporal consequences, and markets may be incomplete. In such settings, the model will not be a repeated game. However, the model typically shares some critical features with the example here: The government is a large longlived player, whereas the private agents are small and anonymous. The literature on sustainable plans exploits the strategic similarity between such economic models and repeated games.10

6.3

Risk Sharing

We now examine consumption dynamics in a simpliﬁcation of a model introduced by Kocherlakota (1996) (and discussed by Ljungqvist and Sargent, 2004, chapters 19–20).11 10. For example, Chari and Kehoe (1993a,b) examine the question of why governments repay their debts and why governments are able to issue debt in the ﬁrst place, given the risk that they will not repay. Domestic debt can be effectively repudiated by inﬂation or taxation, but there is seemingly no obstacle to an outright repudiation of foreign debt. Why is debt repaid? The common explanation is that its repudiation would preclude access to future borrowing. Although intuitive, a number of subtleties arise in making this explanation precise. Chari and Kehoe (1993b) show that a government can commit to issuing and repaying debt, on the strength of default triggering a reversion to a balanced budget continuation equilibrium, only if the government cannot enforce contracts in which it lends to its citizens. Such contracts can be enforced in Chari and Kehoe (1993a), and hence simple trigger strategies will not sustain equilibria with government debt. More complicated strategies do allow equilibria with debt. These include a case in which multiple balanced budget equilibria can be used to sustain equilibria with debt in ﬁnite horizon games. 11. Thomas and Worrall (1988) and Ligon, Thomas, and Worrall (2002) present related models. Koeppl (2003) qualiﬁes Kocherlakota’s (1996) analysis, see note 14 on page 219.

6.3

■

Risk Sharing

209

Interest in consumption dynamics stems from the following stylized facts: Conditional on the level of aggregate consumption, individual consumption is positively correlated with current and lagged values of individual income. People consume more when they earn more, and people consume more when they have earned more in the past. At ﬁrst glance, nothing could seem more natural—the rich consume more than the poor. On closer inspection, however, the observation is more challenging. The pattern observed in the data is not simply that the rich consume more than the poor but that the consumption levels of the poor and rich alike are sensitive to their current and past income levels (controlling for a variety of factors, such as aggregate consumption, so that we are not simply making the observation that everyone consumes more when more is available). If a risk-averse agent’s income varies, there are gains to be had from smoothing the resulting consumption stream by insuring against the income ﬂuctuations. Why aren’t consumption ﬂuctuations perfectly insured? One common answer, to which we return in chapter 11, is based on the adverse selection that arises naturally in games of imperfect monitoring. It can be difﬁcult to insure an agent against income shocks if only that agent observes the shocks. Here, we examine an alternative possibility based on moral hazard constraints that arise even in the presence of perfectly monitored shocks to income. We work with a model in which agents are subject to perfectly observed income shocks. In the absence of any impediments to contracting on these shocks, the agents should enter into insurance contracts with one another, with each agent i making transfers to others when i’s income is relatively high and receiving transfers when i’s income is relatively low. In the simple examples we consider here, featuring no ﬂuctuations in aggregate income, each agent’s equilibrium consumption would be constant across states (though perhaps with some agents consuming more than others). We refer to this as a full insurance allocation. The conventional wisdom is that consumption ﬂuctuates more than is warranted under a full insurance allocation. This excess consumption sensitivity must represent some difﬁculties in conditioning consumption on income. We focus here on one such difﬁculty, an inability to write contracts committing to future payments. In particular, in each period, and after observing the current state, each agent is free to abandon the current insurance contract.12 As a result, any dependence of current behavior on current income must satisfy incentive constraints. The dynamics of consumption and income arise out of this restriction. 6.3.1 The Economy The stage game features two consumers, 1 and 2. There is a single consumption good. A random draw ﬁrst determines the players’ endowments of the consumption good to 12. Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004, chapter 19) examine a variation on this model in which one side of the insurance contract can be bound to the contract, whereas the other is free to abandon the contract at any time. Such a case would arise if an insurance company can commit to insurance policies with its customers, who can terminate their policies at will. We follow Kocherlakota (1996), Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004, chapter 20), and Thomas and Worrall (1988) in examining a model in which either party to an insurance contract has the ability to abandon the contract at will.

210

Chapter 6

■

Applications

be either e(1) ≡ (y, ¯ y) or e(2) ≡ (y, y), ¯ with player 1’s endowment listed ﬁrst in each case and with y¯ = 1 − y ∈ (1/2, 1). Player i thus fares relatively well in state i. Each state is equally likely. After observing the endowment e(i), players 1 and 2 simultaneously transfer nonnegative quantities of the consumption good to one another and then consume the resulting net quantities c1 (i) and c2 (i), evaluated according to the utility function u(·). The function u is strictly increasing and strictly concave, so that players are risk averse. This stage game obviously has a unique Nash equilibrium outcome in which no transfers are made. Because the consumers are risk averse, this outcome is inefﬁcient. Suppose now that the consumers are inﬁnitely lived, playing the game in each period t = 0, 1, . . . The endowment draws are independent across periods, with the two endowments equally likely in each period. We thus again have a repeated game with random states (remarks 5.5.1 and 5.7.1). Players discount at the common rate δ. An ex ante period t history is a sequence identifying the endowment and the transfers in each previous period. However, smaller transfers pose less stringent incentive constraints than do larger ones, and hence we need never consider cases in which the agents make simultaneous transfers, replacing them with an equivalent outcome in which one agent makes the net transfer and the other agent makes none. We accordingly take an ex ante period t history to be a sequence ((e0 , c10 , c20 ), . . . , (et−1 , c1t−1 , c2t−1 )) identifying the endowment and the consumption levels of the two agents in each previous period. An ex post period t history is the combination of an ex ante history and a selection of the period t state. We let H˜ t denote the set of period t ex post histories, with typical element h˜ t . Let H˜ denote the set of ex post histories. A pure strategy for player i is a function σi : H˜ → [0, 1], identifying the amount player i transfers after each ex post history (i.e., after each ex ante history and realized endowment). Transfers must satisfy the feasibility requirement of not exceeding the agent’s endowment, that is, σi (ht , e) ≤ yi where yi is i’s endowment in e. When convenient, we describe strategy proﬁles in terms of the consumption levels rather than transfers that are associated with a history. We consider pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibria of the repeated game.

6.3.2 Full Insurance Allocations The consumers in this economy can increase their payoffs by insuring each other against the endowment risk. An ex post history is a consistent history under a strategy proﬁle σ if, given the implied endowment history, in each period the transfers in the history are those speciﬁed by σ . Definition A strategy proﬁle σ features full insurance if there is a quantity c such that

6.3.1 after every consistent ex post history under σ , player 1 consumes c and 2 consumes 1 − c. As the name suggests, player 1’s (and hence player 2’s) consumption does not vary across histories in a full insurance outcome. Note that under this outcome, we have full intertemporal consumption smoothing as well as full insurance with respect to the uncertain realization of endowments. Risk-averse players strictly prefer smooth consumption proﬁles over time as well as states. We refer to the resulting payoffs as

6.3

■

211

Risk Sharing

u (c2 )

(u ( y ), u ( y ))

u ( 12) v

(u ( y ), u ( y )) u( y) u( y)

v

u ( 12 )

u (c1 )

Figure 6.3.1 The set F ∗ of feasible, strictly individually rational

payoffs consists of those payoff pairs (weakly) below the frontier connecting (u(y), u(y)) ¯ and (u(y), ¯ u(y)), and giving each player a payoff in excess of v.

full insurance payoffs. There are many full insurance proﬁles that differ in how they distribute payoffs across the two agents. When can full insurance strategy proﬁles be subgame-perfect equilibria? As usual, we start by examining the punishments that can be used to construct an equilibrium. The minmax payoff for each agent i is given by v = 12 u(y) ¯ + 12 u(y). The players have identical minmax payoffs, and hence no subscript is required. Each player i can ensure at least this payoff simply by never making any transfers to player j . Figure 6.3.1 illustrates the set F ∗ of feasible, strictly individually rational payoffs for this game. Any of the payoff proﬁles along the frontier of F ∗ is a potential full insurance payoff, characterized by different allocations of the surplus between the two players. The unique Nash equilibrium of the stage game features no transfers, and hence strategies that never make transfers are a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game. Because this equilibrium produces the minmax payoffs, it is the most severe punishment that can be imposed. We refer to this as the autarkic equilibrium. Now ﬁx a full insurance strategy proﬁle and let (c1 , c2 ) be the corresponding consumption of agents 1 and 2 after any (and every) history. Let the strategy proﬁle specify play of the autarkic equilibrium after any nonequilibrium history. For this strategy proﬁle to be a subgame-perfect equilibrium, it must satisfy the incentive constraints given by ¯ + δv u(c1 ) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y) and

¯ + δv. u(c2 ) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y)

These ensure that deviating from the equilibrium to keep the entire relatively high endowment y, ¯ when faced with the opportunity to do so, does not dominate the equilibrium payoff for either player. These constraints are most easily satisﬁed

212

Chapter 6

■

Applications

(i.e., are satisﬁed for the largest set of discount factors, if any) when c1 = c2 = 1/2. Hence, there exists at least one full-insurance equilibrium as long as u 12 − v 1−δ ≤ . δ u(y) ¯ − u 12 Let δ ∗ denote the value of the discount factor that solves this relationship with equality, and hence the minimum discount factor for supporting a full insurance equilibrium. When δ = δ ∗ , this equal-payoff equilibrium is the only full insurance equilibrium outcome. Full insurance outcomes with asymmetric payoffs create stronger incentives for deviation on the part of the player receiving the relatively small payoff and hence require larger discount factors. The set of full insurance outcomes expands as the discount factor increases above δ ∗ , encompassing in the limit as δ → 1 any full insurance payoff that gives each player a payoff strictly larger than v. 6.3.3 Partial Insurance Suppose that δ falls short of δ ∗ , so that full insurance is impossible. If δ is not too small, we can nonetheless support equilibrium outcomes that do not simply repeat the stage-game Nash equilibrium in each period. To show this, we consider a class of equilibria with stationary outcomes in which the agents consume (y¯ − ε, y + ε) after any ex post history ending in endowment e(1) and (y + ε, y¯ − ε) in endowment e(2). Hence, the high-income player transfers ε of his endowment to the other player. In the full insurance equilibrium ε = y¯ − 12 = 12 − y ≡ ε ∗ . The incentive constraint for the high-endowment agent to ﬁnd this transfer optimal is 1 (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv ≤ (1 − δ)u(y¯ − ε) + δ [u(y¯ − ε) + u(y + ε)], 2 or 1−δ ≤ δ

(6.3.1)

1 2 [u(y¯

− ε) + u(y + ε)] − v . u(y) ¯ − u(y¯ − ε)

Now consider the derivative of the right side of this expression in ε, evaluated at ε = ε ∗ . The derivative has the same sign as − u 12 − v u 12 < 0. Hence, reducing ε below ε∗ increases the upper bound on (1 − δ)/δ for satisfying the incentive constraint, thereby decreasing the bound on values of δ for which the incentive constraint can be satisﬁed. This implies that there are values of the discount factor that will not support full insurance but will support stationary-outcome equilibria featuring partial insurance. For a ﬁxed value of δ < δ ∗ , with δ sufﬁciently large, there is a largest value of ε for which the incentive constraint given by (6.3.1) holds with equality. This value of ε describes the efﬁcient, (ex ante) strongly symmetric, stationary-outcome equilibrium

6.3

■

213

Risk Sharing

given δ, in which consumption is (y¯ − ε, y + ε) in endowment 1 and (y + ε, y¯ − ε) in endowment 2. It will be helpful to refer to this largest value of ε as εˆ and to refer to the associated equilibrium as σˆ . There is a collection of additional stationary-outcome equilibria in which the high-endowment agent makes transfer ε to the low-endowment agent for any ε ∈ [0, εˆ ). These equilibria give symmetric payoffs that are strictly dominated by the payoffs produced by σˆ . There also exist equilibria with stationary outcomes that give asymmetric payoffs, with agent i making a transfer εi to agent j whenever i has a high endowment, and with ε1 = ε2 . 6.3.4 Consumption Dynamics We continue to suppose that δ < δ ∗ , so that players are too impatient to support a full insurance outcome, but that the discount factor nonetheless allows them to support a nontrivial subgame-perfect equilibrium. The equilibrium σˆ is the efﬁcient stationaryoutcome, strongly symmetric equilibrium. We now characterize the frontier of efﬁcient equilibria. Consider an ex ante history that induces equilibrium consumption proﬁles c(1) and c(2) and equilibrium continuation payoff proﬁles γ (1) and γ (2) in states 1 and 2. Then these proﬁles satisfy ¯ + δv, (1 − δ)u(c1 (1)) + δγ1 (1) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y)

(6.3.2)

(1 − δ)u(c1 (2)) + δγ1 (2) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y) + δv,

(6.3.3)

(1 − δ)u(1 − c1 (2)) + δγ2 (2) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv,

(6.3.4)

(1 − δ)u(1 − c1 (1)) + δγ2 (1) ≥ (1 − δ)u(y) + δv.

(6.3.5)

and

These incentive constraints require that each agent in each endowment prefer the equilibrium payoff to the punishment of entering the autarkic equilibrium. As is typically the case with problems of this type, we expect only two of these constraints to bind, namely, those indicating that the high-income agent be willing to make an appropriate transfer to the low-income agent. Fix a pure strategy proﬁle σ . For each endowment history et ≡ (e0 , e1 , . . . , et ), only one period t ex post history is consistent under σ . Accordingly, we can write σ [et ] for the period t transfers after the ex post history consistent under σ with endowment history et . This allows us to construct a useful tool for examining equilibria. Consider two pure strategy proﬁles σ and σˇ . We recursively construct a strategy proﬁle σ¯ as follows. To begin, let σ¯ (e0 ) = 1 σ (e0 ) + 1 σˇ (e0 ). Then ﬁx an ex post history h¯ t 2

2

and let et be the sequence of endowments realized under this history. For each of σ and σˇ , there is a unique consistent ex post history associated with et , denoted by ht and hˇ t . If h¯ t is a consistent history under σ¯ , then let σ¯ (h¯ t ) = 12 σ (ht ) + 12 σˇ (hˇ t ), i.e., σ¯ [et ] = 12 σ [et ] + 12 σˇ [et ] for all et . Otherwise, the autarkic equilibrium actions are played. We refer to σ¯ as the average of σ and σˇ .

214

Chapter 6

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Applications

Lemma If σ and σˇ are equilibrium strategy proﬁles, then so is their average, σ¯ . Moreover,

6.3.1 Ui (σ¯ ) ≥ (Ui (σ ) + Ui (σˇ ))/2 for i = 1, 2.

Proof The average σ¯ speciﬁes the stage-game equilibrium at any history that is not

consistent under σ¯ , so we need only consider histories consistent under σ¯ . We know that σ and σˇ satisfy (6.3.2)–(6.3.5) for every consistent history and must show that σ¯ does so. Notice that the right side of each constraint is independent of the strategy proﬁle, and therefore we need show only that σ¯ gives a left side of each constraint at least as large as the average of the values obtained from σ and σˇ . The critical observation is that for any endowment history, the period t consumption proﬁle under σ¯ is the average of the corresponding consumption proﬁles under σ and σˇ , and so ui (σ¯ [et ]) ≥

ui (σ [et ]) + ui (σˇ [et ]) . 2

Because this observation holds for all endowment histories, and i’s expected payoff from a proﬁle σ is Ui (σ ) = (1 − δ)

∞

δ t E[ui (σ [et ])],

t=0

where the expectation is taken over endowment histories, we then have Ui (σ¯ ) ≥

Ui (σ ) + Ui (σˇ ) . 2

Moreover, similar inequalities hold conditional on any endowment history, and so if σ and σˇ satisfy (6.3.2)–(6.3.5), so does σ¯ . ■

This result allows us to identify one point on the efﬁcient frontier. The stationarity and strong symmetry constraints that we imposed when constructing the equilibrium proﬁle σˆ are not binding: Lemma The efﬁcient, strongly symmetric, stationary-outcome equilibrium strategy proﬁle

6.3.2 σˆ is the strongly efﬁcient, symmetric-payoff equilibrium. Proof Suppose that σ is an equilibrium strategy proﬁle with symmetric payoffs that

strictly dominate those of σˆ . Let σ be the strategy proﬁle obtained from σ that reverses the roles of players 1 and 2. Then, σ also has symmetric payoffs that strictly dominate those of σˆ . Lemma 6.3.1 then implies that σ¯ , the average of σ and σ , is a strongly symmetric strategy proﬁle, whose payoffs strictly dominate those of σˆ . We now construct a stationary-outcome strongly symmetric equilibrium, with payoffs at least as high as σ¯ , by replacing any low-payoff continuation with the highest payoff continuation. Because ci (s) is then the same after each ex ante history, the proﬁle σ¯ is a stationary-outcome, strongly symmetric equilibrium with payoffs higher than those of σˆ , a contradiction. ■

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Risk Sharing

We now characterize efﬁcient equilibria as solutions to a maximization problem. Recall that E p is the set of pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs. The task is to choose current consumption levels c1 (1) and c1 (2), giving agent 1’s consumption in states 1 and 2, and continuation payoffs γ (1) and γ (2) in states 1 and 2, to maximize 1 2 {(1 − δ)[u(c1 (1)) + u(c1 (2))] + δ[γ1 (1) + γ1 (2)]}

subject to (6.3.2)–(6.3.5), 1 2 ((1 − δ)[u(1 − c1 (1)) + u(1 − c1 (2))] + δ[γ2 (1) + γ2 (2)])

≥ v2

and γ (1), γ (2) ∈ E p . We describe this constrained optimization problem as max1. The problem max1 maximizes player 1’s payoff given a ﬁxed payoff for player 2 over the current consumption plan, identiﬁed by c1 (1) and c1 (2), and the continuation payoffs γ (1) and γ (2). Each of the latter is a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff proﬁle, as ensured by the ﬁnal constraint. The ﬁrst displayed constraint ensures that player 2’s target utility is realized. Lemma Fix v2 and suppose that problem max1 has a solution in which (6.3.2)–(6.3.5) do

6.3.3 not bind. Then c1 (1) = c1 (2) and

γ2 (1) = γ2 (2) = v2 .

This in turn implies that there exists an equilibrium featuring c1 (1) = c1 (2) after every history, and hence full insurance. Proof Suppose that we have a solution to the optimization problem max1 in which

none of the incentive constraints bind. Then c1 (1) = c1 (2), that is, consumption does not vary with the endowment. (Suppose this were not the case, so that c1 (1) > c1 (2). Then the current consumption levels can be replaced by a smaller value of c1 (1) and larger c1 (2) while preserving their expected value and the incentive constraints. But given the concavity of the utility function, this increases both players’ utilities, ensuring that the candidate solution was not optimal.) Next, suppose that γ2 (1) = γ2 (2), so that continuation utilities vary with the state. Then states 1 and 2 must be followed by different continuation equilibria. The average of these equilibria is an equilibrium with higher average utility (lemma 6.3.1) and hence yields a contradiction. Finally, suppose that γ2 (1) = γ2 (2) = v2 . Then the equilibrium features a consumption allocation for player 2 that is not constant over equilibrium histories, and the current expected utility v2 is a convex combination of the consumption levels attached to these histories. Let c2∗ solve u(c2 ) = (1 − δ)u(1 − c1 ) + δγ2 , where c1 is 1’s state-independent consumption and γ2 is 2’s stateindependent continuation. Denote by σ ∗ the strategy proﬁle that gives player 2 consumption c2∗ in the current period and after every consistent history and otherwise prescribes the stage-game Nash equilibrium. By construction, (6.3.4) and (6.3.5) are satisﬁed, with γ2∗ = u(c2 ). Because the utility function is concave,

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player 1’s payoff in this newly constructed strategy proﬁle is larger than in the equilibrium under consideration, and so (6.3.2) and (6.3.3) are satisﬁed, with γ1∗ = u(1 − c2∗ ). Finally, because (6.3.2)–(6.3.5) are simply the enforceability constraints for this game, we have just shown that {(v, v), (u(1 − c2∗ ), u(c2∗ ))} is self-generating, and so (u(1 − c2∗ ), u(c2∗ )) ∈ E p (recall remark 5.7.1). We thus have an equilibrium that offers player 1 a higher payoff, a contradiction. Hence, the solution to max1 has state-independent consumption, c1 for player 1, and state-independent continuations for player 2, γ2 = v2 (so that u(1 − c1 ) = v2 ). Hence, as before, the set of payoffs {(v, v), (u(c1 ), u(1 − c1 ))} is self-generating, and so (u(c1 ), u(1 − c1 )) ∈ E p . The proﬁle yielding payoffs (u(c1 ), u(1 − c1 )) is clearly a full insurance equilibrium. ■

The conclusion is that in any efﬁcient equilibrium σ , if the incentive constraints do not bind at some ex ante consistent history under σ , then the continuation equilibrium is a full insurance equilibrium. Because this requires full insurance to be consistent with equilibrium, for the discount factors δ < δ ∗ , after every consistent history at least one incentive constraint must bind. Now let us examine the subgame-perfect equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff. A ﬁrst observation is immediate. Lemma Let σ ∗ be a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Then player 1 receives at least as

6.3.4 high a payoff from an equilibrium that speciﬁes consumption (y, ¯ y) after any ex post history in which only state 1 has been realized, and otherwise speciﬁes equilibrium σ ∗ . As a result, the equilibrium maximizing player 1’s payoff must feature nonstationary outcomes, and must begin with (y, ¯ y) after any ex post history which only state 1 has been realized. Proof We ﬁrst note that consumption bundle (y, ¯ y) is incentive compatible in state 1,

because no transfers are made. As a result, the prescription of playing (y, ¯ y) after any ex post history in which only state 1 has been realized, and otherwise playing equilibrium σ ∗ , is itself a subgame-perfect equilibrium. Because there is no subgame-perfect equilibrium in which player 1 earns u(y), ¯ the constructed equilibrium must give at least as high a payoff as σ ∗ , for any equilibrium σ ∗ , and ¯ y) after any must give a strictly higher payoff if σ ∗ does not itself prescribe (y, ex post history in which only state 1 has been realized. ■

The task of maximizing player 1’s payoff now becomes one of ﬁnding that equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff, conditional on endowment 2 having been drawn in the ﬁrst period. Lemma The equilibrium maximizing player 1’s payoff, conditional on state 2 having been

6.3.5 drawn in the ﬁrst period, is the efﬁcient symmetric-payoff stationary-outcome equilibrium σˆ . This result gives us a complete characterization of the equilibrium maximizing player 1’s (and, reversing the roles, player 2’s) equilibrium payoff. Consumption is

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217

Risk Sharing

given by (y, ¯ y) as long as state 1 is realized, with the ﬁrst draw of state 2 switching play to the efﬁcient, symmetric-payoff stationary-outcome equilibrium. Proof We begin by noting that the payoffs provided by equilibrium σˆ are the equally

weighted convex combination of two continuation payoffs, one following the draw of state 1 and one following the draw of state 2. In the ﬁrst of these continuation equilibria, the incentive constraint for player 1 binds, ¯ + δv, (1 − δ)u(c1 (1)) + δγ1 (1) = (1 − δ)u(y) whereas in the second the incentive constraint for player 2 binds, (1 − δ)u(1 − c1 (2)) + δγ2 (2) = (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv. Refer to these continuation payoffs as U (σˆ | e(1)) and U (σˆ | e(2)), respectively, where player i draws the relatively high share of the endowment in endowment e(i). Figure 6.3.2 illustrates the payoffs U (σˆ | e(1)) and U (σˆ | e(2)). These constraints ensure that in each case, the player drawing the high endowment earns an ¯ Notice also that expected payoff of (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv ≡ v. (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv = v¯ > u 12 , because otherwise the sufﬁcient conditions hold for a full-insurance equilibrium in which consumption is (1/2, 1/2) after every history, contrary to our hypothesis. Now consider the equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff, conditional on state 2. Because we are maximizing player 1’s payoff, the incentive constraint for player 2 to make a transfer to player 1 in state 2 must bind. Player 2 must then earn a continuation payoff of (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv. One equilibrium delivering such a payoff to player 2 is σˆ . Is there another equilibrium that respects player 2’s incentive constraint and provides player 1 a higher payoff than that which he

u (c2 )

(u ( y ), u ( y ))

U (σˆ | e(2))

(u ( 12 ), u ( 12 ))

v U (σˆ ) U (σˆ | e(1)) v

(u ( y ), u ( y )) u( y) u( y)

v

v

u (c1 )

Figure 6.3.2 Representation of efﬁcient, symmetric-payoff equilibrium payoff U (σˆ ) as the equally likely combination of U (σˆ | e(1)) and U (σˆ | e(2)). The utility v¯ equals (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv.

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earns under σˆ ? If so, then we would have an equilibrium that weakly dominates σˆ , conditional on drawing state 2. Reversing the roles of the players, we could also construct an equilibrium weakly dominating σˆ , conditional on endowment 1 having been drawn. Combining these two, we would ﬁnd a symmetric-payoff equilibrium strictly dominating σˆ , yielding a contradiction. ■

We have thus constructed the equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff and can do similarly for player 2, as a convex combination of an initial segment, in which a consumption binge is supported by fortunate endowment draws, followed by continuation paths of the efﬁcient symmetric-payoff equilibrium. Let σ 1 and σ 2 denote these equilibria. Figure 6.3.3 illustrates. Because U (σ 1 ) = 12 U (σˆ | e(2)) + 12 ((1 − δ)(u(y), ¯ u(y)) + δU (σ 1 )), ¯ u(y)). the payoff vector U (σ 1 ) is a convex combination of U (σˆ | e(2)) and (u(y), Moreover, player 2 earns a payoff of v. This follows from the observation that 2 earns u(y) after any initial history featuring only state 1, and on the ﬁrst draw of state 2 earns a continuation payoff equivalent to receiving u(y) ¯ in the current period and v thereafter. Hence, 2’s payoff equals that of receiving y¯ whenever endowment 2 is drawn and y when endowment 1 is drawn, which is v. Similarly, player 1 earns v in equilibrium σ 2 . This argument can be extended to show that every payoff proﬁle on the efﬁcient frontier consists of an initial segment in which the player drawing the high-income endowment does relatively well, with the ﬁrst switch to the other endowment prompting a switch to σˆ , with a continuation payoff of either U (σˆ | e(1)) or U (σˆ | e(2)), as appropriate. The most extreme version of this initial segment allows the high-income player i to consume his entire endowment (generating equilibrium σ i ), and the least extreme simply begins with the play of σˆ . By varying the transfer made from the

u (c2 )

(u ( y ), u ( y ))

U (σˆ | e(2))

(u ( 12 ), u ( 12 ))

v U (σˆ ) U (σ 2 )

U (σˆ | e(1))

v U (σ 1 )

(u ( y ), u ( y )) u( y) u( y)

v

v

u (c1 )

Figure 6.3.3 Illustration of how equilibria σ 1 and σ 2 , maximizing

player 1’s and player 2’s payoffs, respectively, are constructed as convex combinations of (u(y), ¯ u(y)) and U (σˆ | e(2)) in the case of σ 1 and of (u(y), u(y)) ¯ and U (σˆ | e(1)) in the case of σ 2 .

6.3

■

Risk Sharing

219

high-income to the low-income player in this initial segment, we can generate the intervening frontier. To see how the argument works, consider a payoff proﬁle on the efﬁcient frontier in which player 2 earns a payoff v2 larger than v but smaller than U2 (σˆ ). One equilibrium producing a payoff of v2 for player 2 calls for continuation equilibrium σˆ with value U (σˆ | e(2)) on the ﬁrst draw of state 2, with any history in which only state 1 has been drawn prompting a transfer of ε from player 1 to player 2, where ε is calculated so as to give player 2 an expected payoff of v2 .13 Call this equilibrium proﬁle σ . Now let σ be an equilibrium that maximizes player 1’s payoff, subject to player 2 receiving at least v2 . We argue that U1 (σ ) = U1 (σ ). Suppose instead that U1 (σ ) > U1 (σ ). Then equilibrium σ must yield a higher expected continuation payoff for player 1 from histories in which only state 1 has been realized (because σ has the largest payoff for player 1 after state 2 is ﬁrst realized), and hence a lower payoff for player 2. To preserve player 2’s expected payoff of v2 , there must then be some consistent history under σ in which state 2 has been drawn and in which player 2 receives a higher payoff (and hence player 1 a lower payoff ) than under σˆ . This, however, is a contradiction, as the continuation payoff that σ prescribes after the history in question can be replaced by σˆ and payoff U (σˆ | e(2)) without disrupting incentives, thereby increasing both players’ payoffs. This model captures part of the stylized consumption behavior of interest, namely, that current consumption ﬂuctuates in current income more than would be the case if risk could be shared efﬁciently. However, beyond a potential initial segment preceding the ﬁrst change of state, it fails to capture a link between past income and current consumption. The stationarity typiﬁed by σˆ and built into every efﬁcient strategy proﬁle after some initial segment is not completely intuitive. Because the discount factor falls below δ ∗ , complete risk sharing within a period is impossible. However, players face the same expected continuation payoffs at the end of every period. Why not share some of the risk over time by eliciting a somewhat larger transfer from the highincome agent in return for a somewhat lower continuation value? One would expect such a trade-off to appear as a natural feature of the ﬁrst-order conditions used to solve the maximization problem characterizing the efﬁcient solution. The difﬁculty is that the frontier of efﬁcient payoffs is not differentiable at the point U (σˆ ).14 The failure of differentiability sufﬁces to ensure that in no direction is there such a favorable trade-off between current and future risk.

6.3.5 Intertemporal Consumption Sensitivity A richer model (in particular, more possible states) allows links between past income and current consumption to appear. We present an example with three states. We leave many of the details to Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004, chapter 20), who provide an 13. Such an ε exists, because setting ε = 0 produces expected payoff v for player 2, whereas ε = εˆ produces U2 (σˆ ). Notice also that the transfer of ε is incentive compatible for player 1, with deviations punished by reversion to autarky, because the transfer of εˆ is incentive compatible in equilibrium σˆ . 14. The nondifferentiability of the frontier of repeated-game payoffs is demonstrated in Ljungqvist and Sargent (2004, section 20.8.2).

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u2 u (c(2)) u (e(2)) u (c(m)) u (e(m))

u (c (1))

u (e(1)) u1 Figure 6.3.4 The payoff proﬁles for our three-state example and the ﬁrst equilibrium we construct.

analysis of the general case of ﬁnitely many states, ﬁnding properties analogous to those of our three-state example. The three equally likely endowments are e(1), e(m), and e(2), with, as before, ¯ where y¯ ∈ (1/2, 1] and y = 1 − y. ¯ The new endowe(1) = (y, ¯ y), e(2) ≡ (y, y), ment e(m) splits the endowment evenly, e(m) = (1/2, 1/2). Hence, we again have a symmetric model in which player i receives a relatively large endowment in state i. Figure 6.3.4 illustrates these endowments. The most severe punishment available is again an autarkic equilibrium in which no transfers are made, giving each player their minmax value of ¯ + u 12 + u(y) . v = 13 u(y) Incentive constraints are given by the fact that, in state i, player i must receive a payoff at least ¯ + δv. In state m, each player must receive at least v¯ = (1 − δ)u(y) (1 − δ)u 12 + δv. The symmetric-payoff full insurance outcome is straightforward. In state m, no transfers are made (and hence incentive constraints are automatically satisﬁed). In state i, the high-income player i transfers ε∗ = y¯ − 12 to the low-income player. Hence, consumption after every ex post history is (1/2, 1/2). As in the two-state case, if there is any full insurance equilibrium outcome, then the symmetric-payoff full insurance outcome is an equilibrium outcome. If the discount factor is sufﬁciently large, then there also exist other full insurance equilibrium outcomes in which the surplus is split asymmetrically between the two players. We now suppose the discount factor is sufﬁciently large that there exist subgameperfect equilibria that do not simply repeat the autarkic equilibrium but not so large that there are full insurance outcomes. Hence, it must be the case that equilibrium v¯ ≡ (1 − δ)u(y) ¯ + δv > u 12 .

6.3

■

221

Risk Sharing

We examine the efﬁcient, symmetric-payoff equilibrium for this case. We can construct a likely candidate for such an equilibrium by choosing ε to satisfy ¯ (1 − δ)u(y¯ − ε) + δ 13 u(y¯ − ε) + u 12 + u(y + ε) = v. Given our presumption that the discount factor is large enough to support more than the autarky equilibrium but too small to support full insurance, this equation is solved by some ε ∈ (0, ε ∗ ). This equilibrium leaves consumption untouched in state m, while treating states 1 and 2 just as in the two-state case of the previous subsection. We refer to this as equilibrium σ . Figure 6.3.4 illustrates. This equilibrium provides some insurance, but we can provide more. Notice ﬁrst that in state m, there is slack in the incentive constraint of each agent, given by (1 − δ)u 12 + δU (σ ) ≥ (1 − δ)u 12 + δv. 1 ζ, 12 − ζ Now choose some small ζ and let consumption in state m be given 1by 2 + with probability 1/2 (conditional on state m occurring), and by 2 − ζ, 12 + ζ with the complementary probability. The slack in the incentive constraints ensures that this is feasible. The derivative of an agent’s utility, as ζ increases and evaluated at ζ = 0, is signed by u 12 − u 12 = 0. Hence, increasing ζ above 0 has only a second-order effect (a decrease) in expected payoffs. Let us now separate ex ante histories into two categories, category 1 and category 2. A history is in category i if agent i is the most recent one to have drawn a high endowment. Hence, if the last state other than m was state 1, then we have a category 1 history. Now ﬁx ζ > 0, and let the prescription for any ex post history in which the 1 1 + ζ, − ζ if this is a agents ﬁnd themselves in state m prescribe consumption 2 2 category 1 history and consumption 12 − ζ, 12 + ζ if this is a category 2 history. In essence, we are using consumption in state m to reward the last agent who has had a large endowment and transferred part of it to the other agent. This modiﬁcation of proﬁle σ has two effects. We are introducing risk in state m but with a second-order effect on total expected payoffs. However, because we now allocate state m consumption as a function of histories, rather than randomly, this adjustment gives a ﬁrst-order increase in the expected continuation payoff to agent i after a history of category i. This relaxes the incentive constraints facing agents in states 1 and 2. We can thus couple the increase in ζ with an increase in ε, where the latter is calculated to preserve equality in the incentive constraints in states 1 and 2, thereby allowing more insurance in states 1 and 2. The increased volatility of consumption in state m thus buys reduced volatility in states 1 and 2, allowing a ﬁrst-order gain on the latter at a second-order cost on the former. Figure 6.3.5 illustrates the resulting consumption pattern. The remaining task is to calculate optimal values of ζ and ε. For any value of ζ , we choose ε(ζ ) to preserve equality in the incentive constraints in states 1 and 2. The principle here is that insurance is always valuable in states 1 and 2, where income ﬂuctuations are relatively large, and hence we should insure up to the limits imposed by incentive constraints in those states. As ζ increases from 0, this adjustment increases expected payoffs. We can continue increasing ζ , and hence the equilibrium payoffs, until one of two events occurs. First,

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u2 u (c(2)) u (e(2))

u (c(m2 ))

u (e(m))

u (c(m1 ))

u (c(1))

u (e(1)) u1 Figure 6.3.5 Payoff proﬁles for the efﬁcient, symmetric equilibrium. Consumption bundle c(mi ) follows a history in which state m has been drawn, and the last state other than m to be drawn was state i.

the state m incentive constraints may bind. At this point, we have reached the limits of our ability to insure across states m and states 1 and 2, and the optimal value of ζ is that which causes the state m incentive constraints to hold with equality. This gives the consumption pattern illustrated in ﬁgure 6.3.5, with four distinct consumption proﬁles. Second, it may be that the cost of the increased consumption risk in state m overwhelms the gains from increased insurance in states 1 and 2. This will certainly be the case if ζ becomes so large that y¯ − ε(ζ ) =

1 2

+ζ

and y + ε(ζ ) =

1 2

− ζ.

In this last case, the optimal value of ζ is that which satisﬁes these two equalities. We now have a consumption pattern in which volatility in state m consumption matches that of states 1 and 2, and hence there are no further opportunities to smooth risk across states. Then, c(1) = c(m1 ) and c(2) = c(m2 ), and only two consumption bundles arise in equilibrium. Together, these two possibilities ﬁx the value of ζ that gives the efﬁcient symmetric-payoff equilibrium. Notice, however, that this symmetric-payoff equilibrium does not feature stationary outcomes (nor is it strongly symmetric). Current consumption depends on whether the history is in category 1 or category 2, in addition to the realization of the current state. Intuitively, we are now spreading risk across time as well as states within a period, exchanging a relatively large transfer from a high-endowment agent for a relatively lucrative continuation payoff. In terms of consumption dynamics, agents with high endowments in their history are now more likely to have high current consumption.

Part II Games with (Imperfect) Public Monitoring

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7 The Basic Structure of Repeated Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring

The ﬁrst part of the book has focused on games with perfect monitoring. In these games, deviations from the equilibrium path of play can be detected and punished. As we saw, it is then relatively straightforward to provide incentive for players to not myopically optimize (play stage-game best replies). In this chapter, we begin our study of games with imperfect monitoring: games in which players have only noisy information about past play. The link between current actions and future play is now indirect, and in general, deviations cannot be unambiguously detected. However, equilibrium play will affect the distribution of the signals, allowing intertemporal incentives to be created by attaching “punishments” to signals that are especially likely to arise in the event of a deviation. This in turn will allow us to again support behavior in which players do not myopically optimize. Because the direct link between deviations and signals is broken, these punishments may sometimes occur on the equilibrium path. The equilibria we construct will thus involve strategies that are similar in spirit to those we have examined in perfect monitoring games, but signiﬁcantly different in some of their details and implications. Throughout this second part, we maintain the important assumption that any signals of past play, however imprecise and noisy, are invariably observed by all players. This is often stressed by using the phrase imperfect public monitoring to refer to such games. These commonly observed signals allow players to coordinate their actions in a way that is not possible if the signals observed by some players are not observed by others. The latter case, referred to as one of private monitoring, is deferred until chapter 12.

7.1

The Canonical Repeated Game

7.1.1 The Stage Game The speciﬁcation of the stage game follows closely that of perfect monitoring games, allowing for the presence of short-lived players (section 2.7). Players 1, . . . , n are long-lived and players n + 1, . . . , N are short-lived, with player i having a set of pure actions Ai . We explicitly allow n = N , so that there may be no short-lived players. As for perfect monitoring games, we assume each Ai is a compact subset of the Euclidean space Rk for some k. Players choose actions simultaneously. The correspondence mapping any mixed-action proﬁle for the long-lived players to the corresponding set of static Nash equilibria for the short-lived players is denoted 225

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Imperfect Public Monitoring

N B : ni=1 (Ai ) ⇒ N i ), with its graph denoted by B ⊂ i=n+1 (A i=1 Ai . If there are no short-lived players, B = ni=1 (Ai ). At the end of the stage game, players observe a public signal y, drawn from a signal space Y . The signal space Y is ﬁnite (except in section 7.5). The probability that the signal y is realized, given the action proﬁle a ∈ A ≡ i Ai , is denoted by ρ(y | a). The function ρ : Y × A → [0, 1] is continuous (so that ex ante payoffs are continuous functions of actions). We have the obvious extension ρ(y | α) to mixed-action proﬁles. We say ρ has full support if ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y and a. We invoke full support only when needed and are explicit when doing so. The players receive no information about opponents’ play beyond the signal y. If players receive payoffs at the end of each period, player i’s payoff after the realization (y, a) is given by u∗i (y, ai ).1 Ex ante stage game payoffs are then given by ui (a) =

u∗i (y, ai )ρ(y | a).

(7.1.1)

y∈Y

For ease of reference, we now list the maintained assumptions on the stage game. Assumption 1. Ai is either ﬁnite or a compact and convex subset of the Euclidean space Rk

7.1.1

for some k. As in part I, we refer to compact and convex action spaces as continuum action spaces. 2. Y is ﬁnite, and, if Ai is a continuum action space, then ρ : Y × A → [0, 1] is continuous. 3. If Ai is a continuum action space, then u∗i : Y × Ai → R is continuous, and ui is quasiconcave in ai .

Remark Pure strategies As for perfect monitoring games (see remark 2.1.1), when the

7.1.1 action spaces are a continuum, we avoid some tedious measurability details by considering only pure strategies. We use αi to both denote pure or mixed strategies in ﬁnite games and pure strategies only in continuum action games. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990) do allow for a continuum of signals but assume A is ﬁnite and restrict attention to pure strategies. We discuss their bangbang result, which requires a continuum of signals, in section 7.5. ◆ 7.1.2 The Repeated Game In the repeated game, the only public information available in period t is the t-period history of public signals, ht ≡ (y 0 , y 1 , . . . , y t−1 ). The set of public histories is t H ≡ ∪∞ t=0 Y ,

where we set Y 0 ≡ ∅. 1. The representation of ex ante stage-game payoffs as the expected value of ex post payoffs is typically made for interpretation and is not needed for any of the results in this chapter and the next ((7.1.1) is only used in lemma 9.4.1 and those results, propositions 9.4.1 and 9.5.1, that depend on it). An alternative (but less common) assumption is to view discounting as reﬂecting the probability of the end of the game (as discussed in section 4.2), with payoffs, a simple sum of stage-game payoffs, awarded at the end of play (so players cannot infer anything from intermediate stage-game payoffs).

7.1

■

The Canonical Repeated Game

227

A history for a long-lived player i includes both the public history and the history of actions that he has taken, hti ≡ (y 0 , ai0 ; y 1 , ai1 ; . . . ; y t−1 , ait−1 ). The set of histories for player i is t Hi ≡ ∪∞ t=0 (Ai × Y ) . A pure strategy for player i is a mapping from all possible histories into the set of pure actions, σ i : H i → Ai . Amixed strategy is, as usual, a mixture over pure strategies, and a behavior strategy is a mapping σi : Hi → (Ai ). As for perfect-monitoring games, the role of a short-lived player i = n + 1, . . . , N is ﬁlled by a countable sequence of players. We refer simply to a short-lived player i, rather than explicitly referring to the sequence of players. We assume that each short-lived player in period t only observes the public history ht .2 In general, a pure strategy proﬁle does not induce a deterministic outcome path (i.e., an inﬁnite sequence in (A × Y )∞ ), because the public signals may be random. As usual, long-lived players have a common discount factor δ. Following the notation for games with perfect monitoring, the vector of long-lived players’ payoffs from a strategy proﬁle σ is denoted U (σ ). To give a ﬂavor of U (σ ), we write a partial sum for U (σ ) when σ is pure, letting a 0 = σ (∅): Ui (σ ) = (1 − δ)ui (a 0 ) + (1 − δ)δ

ui (σ1 (a10 , y 0 ), . . . , σn (an0 , y 0 ))ρ(y 0 | a 0 ) + · · ·

y 0 ∈Y

Public monitoring games include the following as special cases. 1. Perfect monitoring games. Because we restrict attention to ﬁnite signal spaces (with the exception of section 7.5, which requires A ﬁnite), perfect monitoring games are only immediately covered when A is ﬁnite. In that case, simply set Y = A and ρ(y | a) = 1 if y = a, and 0 otherwise. However, the analysis in this chapter also covers perfect monitoring games with continuum action spaces, given our restriction to pure strategies (see remark 2.1.1).3 2. Games with a nontrivial extensive form. In this case, the signal is the terminal node reached. There is imperfect observability, because only decisions on the path of play are observed. We have already discussed this case in section 5.4 and return to it in section 9.6. 3. Games with noisy monitoring. When the prisoners’ dilemma is interpreted as a partnership game, it is natural to consider an environment where output 2. Although this assumption is natural, the analysis in chapters 7–9 is unchanged when shortlived players observe predecessors’ actions (because the analysis restricts attention to public strategies). 3. While the signal space is a continuum in this case, its cardinality does not present measurability problems because, with pure strategies, all expectations over the signals are trivial, since for any pure action proﬁle only one signal can arise. Compare, for example, the proof of proposition 2.5.1, which restricts attention to pure strategies, and proposition 7.3.1, which does not.

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(the product of the partnership) is a random function of the choices of the partners. Inﬂuential early examples are Radner’s (1985), Rubinstein’s (1979b), and Rubinstein and Yaari’s (1983) repeated principal-agent model with noisy monitoring (discussed in section 11.4.5) and Green and Porter’s (1984) oligopoly with noisy prices (section 11.1). 4. Games of repeated adverse selection. In these games, the moves of players are public information, but moves are taken after players learn some private information. For example, in Athey and Bagwell’s (2001) model of a repeated oligopoly, ﬁrm prices are public, but ﬁrm costs are subject to privately observed i.i.d. shocks. Firm i’s price is a public signal of ﬁrm i’s action, which is the mapping from possible costs into prices. We discuss this in section 11.2. 5. Games with incomplete observability. Games with semi-standard information (Lehrer 1990), where each player’s action space is partitioned and other players only observe the element of the partition containing that action.

7.1.3 Recovering a Recursive Structure: Public Strategies and Perfect Public Equilibria In perfect monitoring games, there is a natural isomorphism between histories and information sets. Consequently, in perfect monitoring games, every history, ht , induces a continuation game that is strategically identical to the original repeated game, and for every strategy σi in the original game, ht induces a well-deﬁned continuation strategy σi |ht . Moreover, any Nash equilibrium induces Nash equilibria on the induced equilibrium outcome path. Unfortunately, none of these observations hold for public monitoring games. Because long-lived players potentially have private information (their own past action choices), a player’s information sets are naturally isomorphic to the set of their own private histories, Hi , not to the set of public histories, H . Thus there is no continuation game induced by any history—a public history is clearly insufﬁcient, and i’s private history will not be known by the other players. There are examples of Nash equilibria in public monitoring games whose continuation play resembles that of a correlated and not Nash equilibrium (see section 10.3). This lack of a recursive structure is a signiﬁcant complication, not just in calculating Nash equilibria but in formulating a tractable notion of sequential rationality.4 A recursive structure does hold, however, on a restricted strategy space. Definition A behavior strategy σi is public if, in every period t, it depends only on the

7.1.1 public history ht ∈ Y t and not on i’s private history: for all hti , hˆ ti ∈ Hi satisfying y τ = yˆ τ for all τ ≤ t − 1, σi (hti ) = σi (hˆ ti ). A behavior strategy σi is private if it is not public. 4. The problem lies not in deﬁning sequential rationality, because the notion of Kreps and Wilson (1982b) is the natural deﬁnition, adjusting for the inﬁnite horizon. Rather, the difﬁculty is in applying the deﬁnition.

7.1

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The Canonical Repeated Game

229

We can thus take H to be the domain of public strategies. Note that short-lived players are necessarily playing public strategies.5 When all players but i are playing public strategies, player i essentially faces a Markov decision problem with states given by the public histories, and so has a Markov best reply. We consequently have the following result. Lemma If all players other than i are playing a public strategy, then player i has a public

7.1.1 strategy as a best reply. Because the result is obvious, we provide some intuition rather than a proof. Let ∈ Hi be a private history for player i. Player i’s actions before t may well be relevant in determining i’s beliefs over the actions chosen by the other players before t. However, because the other players’ continuation behavior in period t is only a function of the public history ht and not their own past behavior, player i’s expected payoffs are independent of i’s beliefs over the past actions of the other players, and so i has a best reply in public strategies. Note that i need not have a public best reply to a nonpublic strategy proﬁle. We provide some examples in chapter 10 illustrating behavior that is ruled out by restricting attention to public strategies. However, to a large extent the restriction to public strategies is not troubling. First, every pure strategy is realization equivalent to a public pure strategy (lemma 7.1.2). Second, as chapter 9 shows, the folk theorem holds under quite general conditions with public strategies. Finally, for games with a product structure (discussed in section 9.5), the set of equilibrium payoffs is unaffected by the restriction to public strategies (proposition 10.1.1). Restricting attention to public strategy proﬁles, every public history ht induces a continuation game that is strategically identical (in terms of public strategies) to the original repeated public monitoring game, and for any public strategy σi in the original game, ht induces a well-deﬁned continuation public strategy σi |ht . Moreover, any Nash equilibrium in public strategies induces Nash equilibria (in public strategies) on the induced equilibrium outcome path. Two strategies, σi and σˆ i , are realization equivalent if, for all strategies for the other players, σ−i , the distributions over outcomes induced by (σi , σ−i ) and (σˆ i , σ−i ) are the same. hti

Lemma Every pure strategy in a public monitoring game is realization equivalent to a

7.1.2 public pure strategy. Proof Let σi be a pure strategy. Let ai0 = σi (∅) be the ﬁrst-period action. In the sec-

ond period, after the signal y 0 , the action ai1 (y 0 ) ≡ σi (y 0 , ai0 ) = σi (y 0 , σi (∅)) is played. Proceeding recursively, in period t after the public history, ht = (y 0 , y 1 , . . . , y t−1 ) = (ht−1 , y t−1 ), the action ait (ht ) ≡ σi (ht ; ai0 , ai1 (y 0 ), . . . , ait−1 (ht−1 )) is played. Hence, for any public outcome h ∈ Y ∞ , the pure strategy σi

5. This is a consequence of our assumption that a period t short-lived player i only observes ht , the public history. We refer to such public monitoring games as canonical public monitoring games. There is no formal difﬁculty in assuming that a period t short-lived player i knows the choices of previous short-lived player i’s, in which case short-lived players could play private strategies. However, in most situations, one would not expect short-lived players to have such private information.

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puts probability one on the action path (a 0 , a 1 (y 0 ), . . . , a t (ht ), . . .). Consequently, the pure strategy σi is realization equivalent to the public strategy that plays ait (ht ), after the public history ht . ■

For example, let there be two actions available to player 1, T and B, and two signals, y and y . Let strategy σ1 specify T in the ﬁrst period, and then in each period t, specify T if (a t−1 , y t−1 ) ∈ {(T , y ), (B, y )}, and B if (a t−1 , y t−1 ) ∈ {(B, y ), (T , y )}. This is a private strategy. However, it is realization equivalent to a public strategy that plays action T in the ﬁrst period and thereafter plays T after any history with an even number of y signals and B after any history with an odd number of y signals. Remark Automata The recursive structure of public strategies is most clearly seen by

7.1.2 observing that a public strategy proﬁle has an automaton representation very similar to that of strategy proﬁles in perfect monitoring games (discussed in section 2.3): Every public behavior strategy proﬁle can be represented by a set of states W , an initial state w 0 , a decision rule f : W → i (Ai ) associating mixed-action proﬁles with states, and a transition function τ : W × Y → W . As for perfect monitoring games, we extend τ to the domain W × H \{∅} by recursively deﬁning τ (w, ht ) = τ (τ (w, ht−1 ), y t−1 ). A state w ∈ W is accessible from another state w ∈ W if there exists a sequence of public signals such that beginning at w, the automaton transits eventually to w , that is, there exists ht such that w = τ (w, ht ). In contrast, the automaton representation is more complicated for private strategies, requiring a separate automaton for each player (recall remark 2.3.1): Each behavior strategy σi can be represented by a set of states Wi , an initial state wi0 , a decision rule fi : Wi → (Ai ) specifying a distribution over action choices for each state, and a transition function τi : Wi × Ai × Y → Wi . Note that the transitions are potentially private because they depend on the realized action choice, which is not public. It is also sometimes convenient to use mixed rather than behavior strategies when calculating examples with private strategies (see section 10.4.2 for an example). A private mixed strategy can also be represented by an automaton (Wi , wi0 , fi , τi ), where fi : Wi → (Ai ) is the decision rule (as usual), but where transitions are potentially random, that is, τi : Wi × Ai × Y → (Wi ). ◆ Remark Minimal automata An automaton (W , w 0 , τ, f ) is minimal if every state w ∈ W

7.1.3 is accessible from w0 ∈ W and, for every pair of states w, wˆ ∈ W , there exists a ˆ ht )). sequence of signals ht such that for some i, fi (τ (w, ht )) = fi (τ (w, Every public proﬁle has a minimal representing automaton. Moreover, this automaton is essentially unique: Suppose (W , w0 , τ, f ) and (W˜ , w˜ 0 , τ˜ , f˜) are two minimal automata representing the same public strategy proﬁle. Deﬁne a mapping ϕ : W → W˜ as follows: Set ϕ(w 0 ) = w˜ 0 . For wˆ ∈ W \{w 0 }, let ht be a pubˆ = τ˜ (w˜ 0 , ht ). Because lic history reaching wˆ (i.e., wˆ = τ (w 0 , ht )), and set ϕ(w) both automata are minimal and represent the same proﬁle, ϕ does not depend on

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The Canonical Repeated Game

231

the choice of public history reaching w. ˆ It is straightforward to verify that ϕ is one˜ y)), and f (w) = f˜(ϕ(w)). to-one and onto. Moreover, τ˜ (w, ˜ y) = ϕ(τ (ϕ −1 (w), ◆ Remark Public correlation If the game has public correlation, the only change in the

7.1.4 automaton representation of public strategy proﬁles is that the initial state is determined by a probability distribution µ0 and the transition function maps into probability distributions over states, that is, τ : W × Y → (W ) (see remark 2.3.3). ◆ Attention in applications is often restricted to strongly symmetric public strategy proﬁles, in which after every history, the same action is chosen by all long-lived players:6 Definition Suppose Ai = Aj for all long-lived i and j . A public proﬁle σ is strongly

7.1.2 symmetric if, for all public histories ht , σi (ht ) = σj (ht ) for all long-lived i and j . Once we restrict attention to public proﬁles, there is an attractive formulation of sequential rationality, because every public history ht does induce a well-deﬁned continuation game (in public strategies). Definition A perfect public equilibrium ( PPE) is a proﬁle of public strategies σ that for any

7.1.3 public history ht , speciﬁes a Nash equilibrium for the repeated game, that is, for all t and all ht ∈ Y t , σ |ht is a Nash equilibrium. A PPE is strict if each player strictly prefers his equilibrium strategy to every other public strategy. When the public monitoring has full support, that is, ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y and a, every public history arises with positive probability, and so every Nash equilibrium in public strategies is a PPE. We denote the set of PPE payoff vectors of the long-lived players by E (δ) ⊂ Rn . The one-shot deviation principle plays as useful a role here as it does for subgameperfect equilibria in perfect monitoring games. A one-shot deviation for player i from the public strategy σi is a strategy σˆ i = σi with the property that there exists a unique public history h˜ t ∈ Y t such that for all hτ = h˜ t , σi (hτ ) = σˆ i (hτ ). The proofs of the next two propositions are straightforward modiﬁcations of their perfect-monitoring analogs (propositions 2.2.1 and 2.4.1), and so are omitted. Proposition The one-shot deviation principle A public strategy proﬁle σ is a PPE if and

7.1.1 only if there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations, that is, if and only if for all public histories ht ∈ Y t , σ (ht ) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs 6. Because it imposes no restriction on short-lived players’ behavior, the concept of strong symmetry is most useful in games without short-lived players. Section 11.2.6 presents a strongly symmetric equilibrium of a game with short-lived players that is most naturally described as asymmetric.

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gi (a) =

(1 − δ)ui (a) + δ

y∈Y

Ui (σ |ht ,y )ρ(y | a), for i = 1, . . . , n, for i = n + 1, . . . , N.

ui (a),

Proposition Suppose the public strategy proﬁle σ is described by the automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ),

7.1.2 and let Vi (w) be the long-lived player i’s average discounted value from play that begins in state w. The strategy proﬁle σ is a PPE if and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from w0 , f (w) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs giw (a)

=

(1 − δ)ui (a) + δ

y∈Y

Vi (τ (w, y))ρ(y | a), for i = 1, . . . , n, for i = n + 1, . . . , N.

ui (a),

(7.1.2)

Equivalently, σ is a PPE if and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from w 0 , f (w) ∈ B and (f1 (w), . . . , fn (w)) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs (g1w , . . . , gnw ), where giw (·, fn+1 (w), . . . , fN (w)) : ni=1 Ai → R, for i = 1, . . . , n, is given by (7.1.2). We also have a simple characterization of strict PPE under full-support public monitoring: Because every public history is realized with positive probability, strictness of a PPE is equivalent to the strictness of the induced Nash equilibria of the normal form games of propositions 7.1.1 and 7.1.2. Corollary Suppose ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y ∈ Y and a ∈ A. The proﬁle σ is a strict PPE if

7.1.1 and only if for all w ∈ W accessible from w 0 , f (w) is a strict Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs g w . Clearly, strict PPE must be in pure strategies, and so we can deﬁne: Definition Suppose ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y ∈ Y and a ∈ A. A pure public strategy proﬁle

7.1.4 described by the automaton (W , w 0 , f, τ ) is a uniformly strict PPE if and only if there exists υ > 0 such that for all w ∈ W accessible from w 0 , for all i, giw (f (w)) ≥ giw (ai , f−i (w)) + υ,

ai = fi (w),

where g w is deﬁned by (7.1.2).

7.2

A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

This section illustrates some key issues that arise in games of imperfect monitoring. We again study the repeated prisoners’ dilemma. The imperfect monitoring is captured by two signals y¯ and y, whose distribution is given by p, ρ(y¯ | a) = q, r,

if a = EE, if a = SE or ES, if a = SS,

(7.2.1)

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A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

y

y

E

E

(3−p−2q) (p−q)

− (p+2q) (p−q)

E

2, 2

S

3(1−r) (q−r)

3r − (q−r)

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 7.2.1 The left matrix describes the ex post payoffs for the prisoners’ dilemma with the public monitoring of (7.2.1). The implied ex ante payoff matrix is on the right and agrees with ﬁgure 1.2.1.

where 0 < q < p < 1 and 0 < r < p. If we interpret the prisoners’ dilemma as a partnership game, then the effort choices of the players stochastically determine whether output is high (y) ¯ or low (y). High output, the “good” signal, has a higher probability when both players exert effort. Output thus provides some noisy information about whether both players exerted effort and may or may not provide information distinguishing the three stage-game outcomes in which at least one player shirks (depending on q and r). The ex post payoffs and implied ex ante payoffs (that agree with the payoffs from ﬁgure 1.2.1) are in ﬁgure 7.2.1. In conducting comparative statics with respect to the monitoring distribution, we ﬁx the ex ante payoffs and so are implicitly adjusting the ex post payoffs as well as the monitoring distribution. Although it is more natural for ex post payoffs to be ﬁxed, with changes in monitoring reﬂected in changes in ex ante payoffs, ﬁxing ex ante payoffs signiﬁcantly simpliﬁes calculations (without altering the substance of the results).

7.2.1 Punishments Happen As with perfect monitoring games, any strategy proﬁle prescribing a stage-game Nash equilibrium in each period, independent of history, constitutes a PPE of the repeated game of imperfect monitoring. In this case, players can simply ignore any signals they see, secure in the knowledge that every player is choosing a best response in every period. In the prisoners’ dilemma, this implies that both shirk in every period. Equilibria in which players exert effort require intertemporal incentives, and a central feature of such incentives is that some realizations of the signal must be followed by low continuation values. As such, they have the ﬂavor of punishments, but unlike the case with perfect monitoring, these low continuation values need not arise from a deviation. As will become clear, they are needed to provide appropriate incentives for players to exert effort. One of the simplest proﬁles in which signals matter calls for the players to exert effort in the ﬁrst period and continue to exert effort until the ﬁrst realization of low output y, after which players shirk forever. We refer to this proﬁle as grim trigger because of its similarity to its perfect monitoring namesake. This strategy has a simple representation as a two-state automaton. The state-space is W = {wEE , wSS }, initial state wEE , output function

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y

y, y

y wSS

wEE

w0 Figure 7.2.2 The grim trigger automaton for the prisoners’ dilemma with public monitoring.

f (wEE ) = EE, and and transition function

f (wSS ) = SS,

τ (w, y) =

¯ wEE , if w = wEE and y = y, wSS , otherwise,

where y is the previous-period signal. The automaton is illustrated in ﬁgure 7.2.2. We associate with each state a value describing the expected payoff when play begins in the state in question. The value function is given by (omitting subscripts, because the setting is symmetric) V (wEE ) = (1 − δ)2 + δ{pV (wEE ) + (1 − p)V (wSS )} and V (wSS ) = (1 − δ) × 0 + δV (wSS ). We immediately have V (wSS ) = 0, so that V (wEE ) =

2(1 − δ) . 1 − δp

(7.2.2)

The strategies will be an equilibrium if and only if in each state, the prescribed actions constitute a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game induced by the current payoffs and continuation values (proposition 7.1.2). Hence, the conditions for equilibrium are V (wEE ) ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ{qV (wEE ) + (1 − q)V (wSS )}

(7.2.3)

and V (wSS ) ≥ (1 − δ)(−1) + δV (wSS ). It is clear that the incentive constraint for defecting in state wSS is trivially satisﬁed, because the state wSS is absorbing. The incentive constraint in the state wEE can be rewritten as 3(1 − δ) , V (wEE ) ≥ 1 − δq

7.2

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A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

235

or using (7.2.2) to substitute for V (wEE ), 2(1 − δ) 3(1 − δ) ≥ , 1 − δp 1 − δq that is, δ(3p − 2q) ≥ 1.

(7.2.4)

If y¯ is a sufﬁciently good signal that both players had exerted effort, in the sense that p>

1 3

+ 23 q,

(7.2.5)

so that 3p − 2q > 1, then grim trigger is an equilibrium, provided the players are sufﬁciently patient. For δ sufﬁciently large (and p > 13 + 23 q), (7.2.3) holds strictly, in which case the equilibrium is strict (in the sense of deﬁnition 7.1.3). If the incentive constraint (7.2.3) holds, then the value of the equilibrium is given by (7.2.2). Notice that as p approaches 1, so that the action proﬁle EE virtually guarantees the signal y, ¯ the equilibrium value approaches 2, the perfect monitoring value. Moreover, if p = 1 and q = 0 (so that y¯ is a perfect signal of effort when the opponent exerts effort), grim trigger here looks very much like grim trigger in the game with perfect monitoring, and (7.2.4) is equivalent to the bound δ ≥ 1/3 obtained in example 2.4.1. As in the case of perfect monitoring, we conclude that grim trigger is an equilibrium strategy proﬁle if the players are sufﬁciently patient. However, there is an important difference. Players are initially willing to exert effort under the grim trigger proﬁle in the presence of imperfect monitoring because shirking triggers the transition to the absorbing state wSS with too high a probability. Unlike the perfect monitoring case, playing EE does not guarantee that wSS will not be reached. Players receive positive payoffs in this equilibrium only from the initial segment of periods in which both exert effort, before the inevitable and irreversible switch to mutual shirking. The timing of this switch is independent of the discount factor. As a result, as the players become more patient and the importance of the initial periods declines, so does their expected payoff (because V (wEE ) → 0 = V (wSS ) as δ → 1 from (7.2.2)). This proﬁle illustrates the interaction between continuation values in their role of providing incentives (where a low continuation value after certain signals, such as y, strengthens incentives) and the contribution such values make to current values. As players become patient, the myopic incentive to deviate to the stage-game best reply is reduced, but at the same time, the impact of the low continuation values may be increased (we return to this issue in remark 7.2.1). 7.2.2 Forgiving Strategies We now consider a proﬁle that provides incentives to exert effort without the use of an absorbing state. Players exert effort after the signal y¯ and shirk after the signal y, and exert effort in the ﬁrst period. The two-state automaton representing this proﬁle

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Imperfect Public Monitoring

y

y

y wSS

wEE

w

0

y

Figure 7.2.3 A simple proﬁle with one-period memory.

has the same state space, initial state, and output function as grim trigger. Only the transition function differs from the previous example. It is given by ¯ wEE , if y = y, τ (w, y) = wSS , if y = y, where y is the previous period signal. The automaton is illustrated in ﬁgure 7.2.3. We can think of the players as rewarding good signals and punishing bad ones. In this proﬁle, punishments are attached to bad signals even though players may know these ¯ signals represent no shirking (such as y following y). The values in each state are given by V (wEE ) = (1 − δ)2 + δ{pV (wEE ) + (1 − p)V (wSS )}

(7.2.6)

V (wSS ) = (1 − δ) × 0 + δ{rV (wEE ) + (1 − r)V (wSS )}.

(7.2.7)

and

Solving (7.2.6)–(7.2.7), ! " ! "−1 ! " V (wEE ) 2 1 − δp −δ(1 − p) = (1 − δ) −δr 1 − δ(1 − r) V (wSS ) 0 ! " 1 2(1 − δ(1 − r)) = . 2δr 1 − δ(p − r)

(7.2.8)

Notice that V (wEE ) and V (wSS ) are both independent of q, because q identiﬁes the signal distribution induced by proﬁles SE and ES, which do not arise in equilibrium. We again have limp→1 V (wEE ) = 2, so that we approach the perfect monitoring value as the signals in state EE become arbitrarily precise. For any speciﬁcation of the parameters, we have 2(1 − δ(1 − r)) 2(1 − δ) < , 1 − δp 1 − δ(p − r) and hence the forgiving strategy of this section yields a higher payoff than the grim trigger strategy of the previous example. As with grim trigger, the strategies will be an equilibrium if and only if in each state, the prescribed actions constitute a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game induced

7.2

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237

A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

by the current payoffs and continuation values. Hence, the proﬁle is an equilibrium if and only if V (wEE ) ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ{qV (wEE ) + (1 − q)V (wSS )}

(7.2.9)

and V (wSS ) ≥ (1 − δ)(−1) + δ{qV (wEE ) + (1 − q)V (wSS )}. Using (7.2.6) to substitute for the equilibrium value V (wEE ) of state wEE , the incentive constraint (7.2.9) can be rewritten as (1 − δ)2 + δ{pV (wEE ) + (1 − p)V (wSS )} ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ{qV (wEE ) + (1 − q)V (wSS )}, which simpliﬁes to δ(p − q){V (wEE ) − V (wSS )} ≥ (1 − δ).

(7.2.10)

From (7.2.8), V (wEE ) − V (wSS ) =

2(1 − δ) . 1 − δ(p − r)

(7.2.11)

From (7.2.10), the incentive constraint for state wEE requires 2δ(p − q) ≥ 1 − δ(p − r) or δ≥

1 . 3p − 2q − r

(7.2.12)

A similar calculation for the incentive constraint in state wSS yields (1 − δ) ≥ δ(q − r){V (wEE ) − V (wSS )}, and substituting from (7.2.11) gives δ≤

1 . p + 2q − 3r

(7.2.13)

Conditions (7.2.12) and (7.2.13) are in tension: For the wEE incentive constraint to be satisﬁed, players must be sufﬁciently patient (δ is sufﬁciently large) and the signals sufﬁciently informative (p − q is sufﬁciently large). This ensures that the myopic incentive to play S is less than the continuation reward from the more favorable distribution induced by EE rather than that induced by SE. At the same time, for the wSS incentive constraint to be satisﬁed, players must not be too patient (δ is not too large) relative to the signals. This ensures that the myopic cost from playing E is more than

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the continuation reward from the more favorable distribution induced by ES rather than that induced by SS. Conditions (7.2.12) and (7.2.13) are consistent as long as p ≥ 2q − r. Moreover, (7.2.13) is trivially satisﬁed if q is sufﬁciently close to r.7 When (7.2.12) and (7.2.13) are satisﬁed, the one-period memory proﬁle supports effort as an equilibrium choice in a period by “promising” players a low continuation after y, which occurs with higher probability after shirking. It is worth emphasizing that the speciﬁcation of S after y is not a punishment of a player for having deviated or shirked. For example, in period 0, under the proﬁle, both players play E. Nonetheless, the players shirk in the next period after observing y. However, if the proﬁle did not specify such a negative repercussion from generating bad signals, players have no incentive to exert effort. The role of SS after y is analogous to that of the deductible in an insurance policy, which encourages due care. It is also worth observing, that when (7.2.12) and (7.2.13) hold strictly, then the PPE is strict: Each player ﬁnds E a strict best reply after y¯ and S a strict best reply after y. In this sense, history is coordinating continuation play (as it commonly does in equilibria of perfect-monitoring games). Remark Patient incentives Suppose q is sufﬁciently close to r that the upper bound on δ,

7.2.1 (7.2.13), is satisﬁed for all δ. Then, the proﬁle of ﬁgure 7.2.3 is a strict PPE for all δ satisfying (7.2.12) strictly. The outcome path produced by these strategies can be described by a Markov chain on the state space {wEE , wSS }, with transition matrix wSS wEE wEE p 1−p r 1 − r. wSS The process is ergodic and the stationary distribution puts probability r/(1 − p + r) on EE and (1 − p)/(1 − p + r) on SS.8 Because p < 1, some shirking must occur in equilibrium. When starting in state wEE , the current payoff is thus higher than the equilibrium payoff, and increasing the discount factor only makes the relatively low-payoff future more important, decreasing the expected payoff from the game. When in state wSS , the current payoff is relatively low, and putting more weight on the future increases expected payoffs. The myopic incentive to play a stage-game best reply becomes small as players become patient. At the same time, as in grim trigger and many other strategy proﬁles,9 the size of the penalty from a disadvantageous signal (V (wEE ) − V (wSS )) also becomes smaller. In the limit, as the players get arbitrarily patient, expected 7. Note that q = r is inconsistent with the assumption that the stage game payoff u1 (a) is the expectation of ex post payoffs (7.1.1), because q = r would imply u1 (SE) = u1 (SS) (see also ﬁgure 7.2.1). A similar comment applies if p = q. We assume q = r or p = q in some examples to ease calculations; the conclusions hold for q − r or p − q close to 0. 8. For grim trigger, the transition matrix effectively has r = 0, so the stationary distribution in that case puts probability one on wSS . 9. More speciﬁcally, this claim holds for proﬁles that are connected, that is, proﬁles with the property that there is a common ﬁnite sequence of signals taking any state into a common state (lemma 13.5.1). We discuss this issue in some detail in section 13.5.

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A Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Example

payoffs are independent of the initial states. For a ﬁxed signal distribution given by p and r, we have lim V (wEE ) = lim V (wSS ) =

δ→1

δ→1

2r . 1−p+r ◆

7.2.3 Strongly Symmetric Behavior Implies Inefficiency We now investigate the most efﬁcient symmetric pure strategy equilibria that the players can support under imperfect monitoring. More precisely, we focus on strongly symmetric pure-strategy equilibria, equilibria in which after every history, the same action is chosen by both players (deﬁnition 7.1.2). It turns out that efﬁciency cannot typically be attained with a strongly symmetric equilibrium under imperfect monitoring (see proposition 8.2.1). Moreover, for this example, if 2p − q < 1 and q > 2r, the best strongly symmetric PPE payoff is strictly smaller than the best symmetric PPE payoff, which is achieved using SE and ES (see remark 7.7.2 and section 8.4.3). As we have seen, imperfect monitoring ensures that punishments will occur along the equilibrium path, whereas symmetry ensures that these punishments reduce the payoffs of both players, precluding efﬁciency. We will subsequently see that asymmetric strategies, in which one player is punished while the other is rewarded, play a crucial role in achieving nearly efﬁcient payoffs. At the same time, it will be important that the monitoring is sufﬁciently “rich” to allow this differential treatment (we return to this issue for this example in section 8.4.3 and in general in chapter 9). We assume here that players can publicly correlate (leaving to section 7.7.1 the analysis without public correlation). As we will see, it sufﬁces to consider strategies implemented by automata with two states, so that W = {wEE , wSS } with f (wEE ) = EE and f (wSS ) = SS. Letting τ (w, y) be the probability of a transition to state wEE , given ¯ y}, calculating the maximum that the current state w ∈ {wEE , wSS } and signal y ∈ {y, payoff from a symmetric equilibrium with public correlation is equivalent to ﬁnding the largest φ for which the following transition function supports an equilibrium: ¯ 1, if w = wEE and y = y, τ (w, y) = φ, if w = wEE and y = y, 0, if w = w . SS

These strategies make use of a public correlating device, because the players perfectly correlate the random movement to state wSS that follows the bad signal. The automaton is illustrated in ﬁgure 7.2.4. The most efﬁcient symmetric outcome is permanent EE, yielding both players a payoff of 2. The imperfection in monitoring precludes this outcome from being an equilibrium outcome. The “punishment” state of wSS is the worst possible state and plays a similar role here as in grim trigger of section 7.2.1, which is captured by φ = 0. For large δ, the incentive constraint in state wEE when φ = 0 (described by (7.2.3)) holds strictly, indicating that the continuation value after y can be slightly increased without disrupting the incentives players have to play E. Moreover, by increasing

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y

(φ ) wEE

y

(1 − φ )

y, y wSS

w0 Figure 7.2.4 The grim trigger proﬁle with public correlation. With

probability φ play remains in wEE after a bad signal, and with probability 1 − φ, play transits to the absorbing state wSS .

that continuation valuation, the value in the previous period has been increased. By appropriately choosing φ, we can maximize the symmetric payoff while still just satisfying the incentive constraint.10 The value V (wSS ) in state wSS equals 0, reﬂecting the fact that state wSS corresponds to permanent shirking. The value for state wEE is given by V (wEE ) = (1 − δ)2 + δ{pV (wEE ) + (1 − p)(φV (wEE ) + (1 − φ)V (wSS ))} = (1 − δ)2 + δ(p + (1 − p)φ)V (wEE ), and solving, V (wEE ) =

2(1 − δ) . 1 − δ(p + (1 − p)φ)

(7.2.14)

Incentives for equilibrium behavior in state wSS are trivial because play then consists of a stage-game Nash equilibrium in every subsequent period. Turning to state wEE , the incentive constraint is (using V (wSS ) = 0): V (wEE ) ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ(q + (1 − q)φ)V (wEE ). As explained, we need the largest value of φ for which this constraint holds. Clearly, such a value must cause the constraint to hold with equality, leading us to solve for V (wEE ) =

3(1 − δ) . 1 − δ(q + (1 − q)φ)

Making the substitution for V (wEE ) from (7.2.14), and solving, φ=

δ(3p − 2q) − 1 . δ(3p − 2q − 1)

(7.2.15)

This expression is nonnegative as long as11 δ(3p − 2q) ≥ 1.

(7.2.16)

Once again, equilibrium requires that players be sufﬁciently patient and that p and q not be too close. It is also worth noting that this condition is the same as (7.2.4), the 10. It is an implication of proposition 7.5.1 that this bang-bang behavior yields the most efﬁcient symmetric pure strategy proﬁle. 11. The expression could also be positive if both numerator and denominator are negative, but then it necessarily exceeds 1, a contradiction.

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lower bound ensuring grim trigger is an equilibrium. If (7.2.16) fails, then even making the punishment as severe as possible, by setting φ = 0, does not create sufﬁciently strong incentives to deter shirking. Conditional on being positive, the expression for φ will necessarily be less than 1. This is simply the observation that one can never create incentives for effort by setting φ = 1, and hence dispensing with all threat of punishment. A value of δ < 1 will exist satisfying inequality (7.2.16) as long as p>

1 3

+ 23 q.

This is (7.2.5) (the necessary condition for grim trigger to be a PPE) and is implied by the necessary condition (7.2.12) for the one-period memory strategy proﬁle of section 7.2.2 to be an equilibrium. If δ = 1/(3p − 2q), then we have φ = 0, and hence grim trigger. In this case, the discount factor is so low as to be just on the boundary of supporting such strategies as an equilibrium, and sufﬁcient incentives can be obtained only by having a bad signal trigger a punishment with certainty. On the other hand, φ → 1 as δ → 1. As the future swamps the present, bad signals need only trigger punishments with an arbitrarily small probability. However, this does not sufﬁce to achieve the efﬁcient outcome. Substituting the value of φ from (7.2.15) in (7.2.14), we ﬁnd, for all δ ∈ (0, 1) satisfying the incentive constraint given by (7.2.16),12 V (wEE ) =

(1 − p) 3p − 2q − 1 =2− < 2. p−q (p − q)

(7.2.17)

Intuitively, punishments can become less likely as the discount factor climbs, but incentives will be preserved only if punishments remain sufﬁciently likely that the expected value of the game following a bad signal falls sufﬁciently short of the expected value following a good signal. Because bad signals occur with positive probability along the equilibrium path, this sufﬁces to bound payoffs away from their efﬁcient levels. It is intuitive that the upper bound for the symmetric equilibrium payoff with public correlation is also an upper bound without public correlation. We will argue in section 7.7.1 that the bound of (7.2.17) is in fact tight (even in the absence of public correlation) for large δ.

7.3

Decomposability and Self-Generation

In this section, we describe a general method (introduced by Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti 1990) for characterizing E (δ), the set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs. We have already seen a preview of this work in section 2.5.1. The essence of this approach is to view a PPE as describing after each history the speciﬁed action to be taken after the history and continuation promises. The continuation promises are themselves of course required to be equilibrium values. The recursive properties of PPE described in section 7.1.3 provide the necessary structure for this approach. 12. Notice that the maximum payoff is independent of δ, once δ is large enough to provide the required incentives.

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The ﬁrst two deﬁnitions are the public monitoring versions of the notions in sec tion 2.5.1. Recall that B ⊂ N i=1 (Ai ) is the set of feasible action proﬁles when players i = n + 1, . . . , N are short-lived. If n = N (there are no short-lived players), then B = ni=1 (Ai ). Definition For any W ⊂ Rn , a mixed action proﬁle α ∈ B is enforceable on W if there exists

7.3.1 a mapping γ : Y → W such that, for all i = 1, . . . , n, and ai ∈ Ai , Vi (α, γ ) ≡ (1 − δ)ui (α) + δ

γi (y)ρ(y | α)

y∈Y

≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , α−i ) + δ

γi (y)ρ(y | ai , α−i ).

(7.3.1)

y∈Y

The function γ enforces α (on W ). Remark Hidden short-lived players The incentive constraints on the short-lived players

7.3.1 are completely captured by the requirement that the action proﬁle be an element of B. We often treat u(α) as the vector of stage-game payoffs for the long-lived players, that is, u(α) = (u1 (α), . . . , un (α)), rather than the vector of payoffs for all players—the appropriate interpretation should be clear from context. ◆ Notice that the function V, introduced in deﬁnition 7.3.1, is continuous. Figure 7.3.1 illustrates the relationship between u(α), γ , and V(α, γ ). We interpret the function γ as describing expected payoffs from future play (“continuation promises”) as a function of the public signal y. Enforceability is then essentially an incentive compatibility requirement. The proﬁle α is enforceable if it is optimal for each player to choose α, given some γ describing the implications of current signals for future payoffs. Phrased differently, the proﬁle α is enforceable if it is a Nash equilibrium of the one-shot game g γ (a) ≡ (1 − δ)u(a) + δE[γ (y) | a] (compare with proposition 7.1.2 and the discussion just before proposition 2.4.1).

Figure 7.3.1 The relationship between u(α), γ , and V(α, γ ). There are three

public signals, Y = {y1 , y2 , y3 }, and E[γ (y) | a] = γ (y )ρ(y | a). Because V(a, γ ) = (1 − δ)u(a) + δE[γ (y) | a], the distance from V(a, γ ) to E[γ | a] is of order 1 − δ.

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243

Definition A payoff vector v ∈ Rn is decomposable on W if there exists a mixed action proﬁle

7.3.2 α ∈ B, enforced by γ on W , such that

vi = Vi (α, γ ). The payoff v is decomposed by the pair (α, γ ) (on W ). It will be convenient to identify for any set W , the set of payoffs that can be decomposed on W , as well as to have a function that identiﬁes the action proﬁle and associated enforcing γ decomposing any value in that set. When there are several enforceable proﬁles and enforcing promises for any decomposable payoff, the selection can be arbitrary. Definition For all W ⊂ Rn , let B(W ) ≡ {v ∈ Rn : v = V (α, γ ) for some α enforced by γ

7.3.3 on W }, and deﬁne the pair Q : B(W ) → B and U : B(W ) → W Y so that Q(v) is enforced by U(v) on W and V(Q(v), U(v)) = v. A payoff v ∈ B(W ) is decomposed by (Q(v), U(v)). We can think of B(W ) as the set of equilibrium payoffs (for the long-lived players), given that W is the set of continuation equilibrium payoffs. In particular, B(W ) contains any payoff vector that can be obtained from (decomposed) using an enforceable choice α in the current period and with the link γ between current signals and future equilibrium payoffs. Although B(W ) depends on δ, we only make that dependence explicit when necessary, writing B(W ; δ). If B(W ) is the set of payoffs that one can support given the set W of continuation payoffs, then a set W for which W ⊂ B(W ) should be of special interest. We have already seen in proposition 2.5.1 and remark 2.5.1 (where ∪a∈A Ba (W ) is the pure-action version of B(W )) that a similar property is sufﬁcient for the payoffs to be pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs in games with perfect monitoring. Because the structure of the game is stationary (for public strategies), the set of equilibrium payoffs and equilibrium continuation payoffs coincide. The function B plays an important role in the investigation of equilibria of the repeated game and is commonly referred to as the generating function for the game. We ﬁrst need the critical notion of self-generation: Definition A set of payoffs W ⊂ Rn is self-generating if W ⊂ B(W ).

7.3.4 Our interest in self-generation is due to the following result (compare with proposition 2.5.1). Proposition Self-generation For any bounded set W ⊂ Rn , if W is self-generating, B(W ) ⊂

7.3.1 E (δ) (and hence W ⊂ E (δ)). Note that no explicit feasibility restrictions are imposed on W (in fact, no restrictions are placed on the set W beyond boundedness).13 As a result, one would think that by 13. The space Rn is trivially self-generating. To generate an arbitrary payoff v ∈ Rn , one need only couple the current play of a Nash equilibrium of the stage game (thus ensuring enforceability),

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choosing a sufﬁciently large set W , payoffs infeasible in the repeated game could be generated. The discipline is imposed by the fact that W must be capable of generating a superset of itself. Coupled with discounting, the assumption that W is bounded and the requirement that the ﬁrst period’s payoffs be given by u(α) for some α ∈ B excludes infeasible payoffs. As in the proof of proposition 2.5.1, the idea is to view B(W ) as the set of states for an automaton, to which we apply proposition 7.1.2. Decomposability allows us to associate an action proﬁle and a transition function describing continuation values to each payoff proﬁle in B(W ). Note that although vectors of continuations for the long-lived players are states for the automaton, the output function speciﬁes actions for both long- and short-lived players. Remark Equilibrium behavior Though self-generation naturally directs attention to the

7.3.2 set of equilibrium payoffs, the proof of proposition 7.3.1 constructs an equilibrium proﬁle. In the course of this construction, however, one often has multiple choices for the decomposing actions and continuations (i.e., Q and U are selections). The resulting equilibrium can depend importantly on the choices one makes. Remark 7.7.1 discusses an example, including proﬁles with Nash reversion and with bounded recall. Chapter 13 gives one reason why this difference is important, showing that proﬁles with permanent punishments are often not robust to the introduction of private monitoring, whereas proﬁles with bounded recall always are. ◆ Proof For v ∈ B(W ), we construct an automaton yielding the payoff vector v and satis-

fying the condition in proposition 7.1.2, so that the implied strategy proﬁle σ is a PPE. Consider the collection of automata {(B(W ), v, f, τ ) : v ∈ B(W )}, where the common set of states is given by B(W ), the common decision function by f (v) = Q(v) for all v ∈ B(W ), and the common transition function by τ (v, y) = U(v)(y) for all y ∈ Y (recall that for U(v) ∈ W Y , so that U(v)(y) ∈ W ). Because W is self-generating, the decision and transition functions are well deﬁned for all v ∈ B(W ). These automata differ only in their initial state v ∈ B(W ). We need to show that for each v ∈ B(W ), the automaton (B(W ), v, f, τ ) describes a PPE with payoff v. This will be an implication of proposition 7.1.2 and the decomposability of v on W , once we have shown that vi = Vi (v),

i = 1, . . . , n,

where Vi (v) is the value to long-lived player i of being in state v. For any v ∈ B(W ), we recursively deﬁne the implied sequence of continut t 0 t t−1 , y t−1 ) = ations {γ t }∞ t=0 , where γ : Y → W , by setting γ = v and γ (h with payoff proﬁle v N , with the function γ (y) = v for all y, where (1 − δ)v N + δv = v. Of course, the unboundedness of the reals plays a key role in this construction.

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Decomposability and Self-Generation

U(γ t−1 (ht−1 ))(y t−1 ). Let σ be the public strategy proﬁle described by the automaton (B(W ), γ 0 , f, τ ), so that σ (∅) = Q(γ 0 ), and for any history, ht , σ (ht ) = Q(γ t (ht )). Then, by construction, v = V(Q(v), U(v)) = V(σ (∅), U(v)) γ 1 (y 0 )ρ(y 0 | σ (∅)) = (1 − δ)u(σ (∅)) + δ y 0 ∈Y

= (1 − δ)u(σ (∅)) + δ

y 0 ∈Y

(1 − δ)u(σ (y 0 ))

+δ

y 1 ∈Y

= (1 − δ)

t−1 s=0

δs

γ 2 (y 0 , y 1 )ρ(y 1 | σ (y 0 )) ρ(y 0 | σ (∅))

u(σ (hs )) Pr σ (hs ) + δ t

hs ∈Y s

γ t (ht ) Pr σ (ht ),

ht ∈Y t

where Pr σ (hs ) is the probability that the sequence of public signals hs arises t t t under σ . Because γ t (ht ) ∈ W and W is bounded, ht ∈Y t γ (h ) Pr σ (h ) is bounded. Taking t → ∞ yields v = (1 − δ)

∞ s=0

δs

u(σ (hs )) Pr σ (hs ),

hs ∈Y s

and so the value of σ is v. Hence, for all v ∈ W and the automaton, (W , v, f, τ ), v = V (v). Let g v : ni=1 Ai → Rn be given by g v (a) = (1 − δ)u(a) + δ

U(v)(y)ρ(y | a)

y∈Y

= (1 − δ)u(a) + δ

V (τ (v, y))ρ(y | a),

y∈Y

where a ∈ A is an action proﬁle with long-lived players’ actions unrestricted and short-lived players’ actions given by (Qn+1 (v), . . . , QN (v)). Because v is enforced by (Q(v), U(v)), Q(v) ∈ B is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game described by the payoff function g v , and so proposition 7.1.2 applies. ■

Proposition 7.3.1 gives us a criterion for identifying subsets of the set of PPE payoffs, because any self-generating set is such a subset. We say that a set of payoffs can be factorized if it is a ﬁxed point of the generating function B. The next proposition indicates that the set of PPE payoffs can be factorized. From proposition 7.3.1, the set of PPE payoffs is the largest such ﬁxed point. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990) refer to the next proposition as factorization.

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Proposition E (δ) = B(E (δ)).

7.3.2 Proof If E (δ) is self-generating (i.e., E (δ) ⊂ B(E (δ))), then (because E (δ) is clearly

bounded, being a subset of F ∗ ) by the previous proposition, B(E (δ)) ⊂ E (δ), and so B(E (δ)) = E (δ). It thus sufﬁces to prove E (δ) ⊂ B(E (δ)). Suppose v ∈ E (δ) and σ is a PPE with value v = U (σ ). Let α ≡ σ (∅) and γ (y) = U (σ |y ). It is enough to show that α is enforced by γ on E (δ) and V(α, γ ) = v. But, V(α, γ ) = (1 − δ)u(α) + δ γ (y)ρ(y | α) y

= (1 − δ)u(α) + δ

U (σ |y )ρ(y | α)

y

= U (σ ) = v. Because σ is a PPE, σ |y is a also a PPE, and so γ : Y → E (δ). Finally, because σ is a PPE, there are no proﬁtable one-shot deviations, and so α is enforced by γ on E (δ), and so v ∈ B(E (δ)). ■

Lemma B is a monotone operator, that is, W ⊂ W =⇒ B(W ) ⊂ B(W ).

7.3.1 Proof Suppose v ∈ B(W ). Then, v = V(α, γ ) for some α enforced by γ : Y → W . But

then γ also decomposes v using α on W , and hence v ∈ B(W ).

■

Lemma If W is compact, B(W ) is closed.

7.3.2 Proof Suppose {v k }k is a sequence in B(W ) converging to v, and (α k , γ k ) is the asso-

ciated sequence of enforceable action proﬁles and enforcing continuations, with v k = V(α k , γ k ). Because (α k , γ k ) ∈ i (Ai ) × W Y and i (Ai ) × W Y is compact,14 without loss of generality (taking a subsequence if necessary), we can assume {(α k , γ k )}k is convergent, with limit (α, γ ). The action proﬁle α is clearly enforced by γ with respect to W . Moreover, V(α, γ ) = v and so v ∈ B(W ). ■

The set of feasible payoffs F † is clearly compact. Moreover, every payoff that can be decomposed on the set of feasible payoffs must itself be feasible, that is, B(F † ) ⊂ F † . Because E (δ) is a ﬁxed point of B and B is monotonic, E (δ) ⊂ B m (F † ) ⊂ F † , ∀m. In fact, {B m (F † )}m is a decreasing sequence. Let + † B m (F † ). F∞ ≡ m

14. Continuing our discussion from note 3 on page 227 when Ai is a continuum action space for some i, W Y is not sequentially compact under perfect monitoring. However, we can proceed as in the second part of the proof of proposition 2.5.2 to nonetheless obtain a convergent subsequence.

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Decomposability and Self-Generation †

Each B m (F † ) is compact and so F∞ is compact and nonempty (because E (δ) ⊂ Therefore, we have

† F∞ ).

†

E (δ) ⊂ F∞ ⊂ · · · ⊂ B 2 (F † ) ⊂ B(F † ) ⊂ F † .

(7.3.2)

The following proposition implies that the algorithm of iteratively calculating B m (F † ) computes the set of PPE payoffs. See Judd, Yeltekin, and Conklin (2003) for an implementation. †

†

Proposition F∞ is self-generating and so F∞ = E (δ).

7.3.3 †

†

†

Proof We need to show F∞ ⊂ B(F∞ ). For all v ∈ F∞ , v ∈ B m (F † ) for all m, and

so there exists (α m , γ m ) such that v = V(α m , γ m ) and γ m (y) ∈ B m−1 (F † ) for all y ∈ Y . By extracting convergent subsequences if necessary, we can assume the sequence {(α m , γ m )}m converges to a limit (α ∗ , γ ∗ ). It remains to show that α ∗ † † is enforced by γ ∗ on F∞ and v = V(α ∗ , γ ∗ ). We only verify that γ ∗ (y) ∈ F∞ for all y ∈ Y (since the other parts are trivial). Suppose then that there is some † † / F∞ . As F∞ is closed, there is an ε > 0 such that y ∈ Y such that γ ∗ (y) ∈ † B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)) ∩ F∞ = ∅,

where B¯ ε (v) is the closed ball of radius ε centered at v. But, there exists m such that for any m > m , γ m (y) ∈ B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)), which implies B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)) ∩ (∩m≤M B m (F † )) = ∅,

∀M > m .

Thus, the collection {B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y))} ∪ {B m (F † )}∞ m=1 has the ﬁnite intersection property, and so (by the compactness of B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)) ∪ F † ), † B¯ ε (γ ∗ (y)) ∩ F∞ = ∅, †

a contradiction. Thus, F∞ is self-generating, and because it is bounded, from † † proposition 7.3.1 F∞ ⊂ E (δ). But from (7.3.2), E (δ) ⊂ F∞ , completing the argument. ■

The proposition immediately implies the compactness of E (δ) (which can also be directly proved along the lines of proposition 2.5.2). Corollary The set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs, E (δ), is compact.

7.3.1 We now turn to the monotonicity of PPE payoffs with respect to the discount factor. Intuitively, as players become more patient, it should be easier to enforce an action proﬁle because myopic incentives to deviate are now less important. Consequently, we should be able to adjust continuation promises so that incentive constraints are still satisﬁed, and yet players’ total payoffs have not been affected by the change in weighting between ﬂow and continuation values. However, as we discussed near the

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end of section 2.5.4, there is a discreteness issue: If the set of available continuations is disconnected, it may not be possible to adjust the continuation value by a sufﬁciently small amount that the incentive constraint is not violated. On the other hand, if continuations can be chosen from a convex set, then the above intuition is valid. In particular, it is often valid for large δ, where the set of available continuations can often be taken to be convex.15 The available continuations are also convex if players use a public correlating device. It will be convenient to denote the set of payoffs that can be decomposed by α on W , when the discount factor is δ, by B(W ; δ, α). Proposition Suppose 0 < δ1 < δ2 < 1, W ⊂ W , and W ⊂ B(W ; δ1 , α) for some α. Then

7.3.4 W ⊂ B(co(W ); δ2 , α). In particular, if W ⊂ W and W ⊂ B(W ; δ1 ), then W ⊂ B(co(W ); δ2 ).

Proof Fix v ∈ W , and suppose v is decomposed by (α, γ ) on W , given δ1 . Then deﬁne:

γ¯ (y) =

δ1 (1 − δ2 ) (δ2 − δ1 ) v+ γ (y), δ2 (1 − δ1 ) δ2 (1 − δ1 )

Because v, γ (y) ∈ W for all y, we have γ¯ (y) ∈ co(W ) for all y. Moreover, γ¯i (y)ρ(y | ai , α−i ) (1 − δ2 )ui (ai , α−i ) + δ2 y

δ1 (1 − δ2 ) (δ2 − δ1 ) v+ γi (y)ρ(y | ai , α−i ) (1 − δ1 ) (1 − δ1 ) y (1 − δ2 ) (δ2 − δ1 ) = v+ γi (y)ρ(y | ai , α−i ) . (1 − δ1 )ui (ai , α−i ) + δ1 (1 − δ1 ) (1 − δ1 ) y

= (1 − δ2 )ui (ai , α−i ) +

Because α is enforced by γ and δ1 with respect to W , it is also enforced by γ¯ with respect to co(W ) and δ2 . Moreover, evaluating the term in {·} at α yields v, and so V (α, γ¯ ; δ2 ) = v. Hence, v ∈ B(co(W ); δ2 , α). ■

Corollary Suppose 0 < δ1 < δ2 < 1, and W ⊂ B(W ; δ1 ). If, in addition, W is bounded and

7.3.2 convex, then W ⊂ E (δ2 ). In particular, if E (δ1 ) is convex, then for any δ2 > δ1 , E (δ1 ) ⊂ E (δ2 ).

Proof W is self-generating, so the result follows from proposition 7.3.1. ■

Remark Pure strategy restriction Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990) restrict attention

7.3.3 to pure strategies but allow for a continuum of signals (see section 7.5). We use a superscript p to denote relevant expressions when we explicitly restrict to pure strategies of the long-lived players (we are already implicitly doing so for continuum action spaces—see remark 7.1.1). In particular, B p (W ) is the set of payoffs that can be decomposed on W using proﬁles in which the long-lived 15. More precisely, for any equilibrium payoff in the interior of E (δ), under a mild condition, the continuations can be chosen from a convex set (proposition 9.1.2).

7.4

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The Impact of Increased Precision

249

players play pure actions, and E p (δ) is the set of PPE payoffs when long-lived players are required to play pure strategies. Clearly, all the results of this section apply under this restriction. In particular, E p (δ) is the largest ﬁxed point of B p (see also remark 2.5.1). With only a slight abuse of language, we call E p (δ) the set of pure-strategy PPE payoffs. We do not require short-lived players to play pure actions, because the static game played by the short-lived players implied by some long-lived player action proﬁles, (a1 , . . . , an ), may not have a pure strategy Nash equilibrium.16 In that event, there is no pure action proﬁle a ∈ B with ai = ai for i = 1, . . . , n. Allowing the short-lived players to randomize guarantees that for all long-lived player action proﬁles, (a1 , . . . , an ), there exists (αn+1 , . . . , αN ) such that (a1 , . . . , an , αn+1 , . . . , αN ) ∈ B. ◆ Proposition 7.3.4 also implies the following important corollary that will play a central role in the next chapter. Definition A set W ⊂ Rn is locally self-generating if for all v ∈ W , there exists δv < 1 and

7.3.5 an open set Uv satisfying v ∈ Uv ∩ W ⊂ B(W ; δv ). Corollary Suppose W ⊂ Rn is compact, convex, and locally self-generating. There exists

7.3.3 δ < 1 such that for δ ∈ (δ , 1),

W ⊂ B(W ; δ) ⊂ E (δ). Proof Because W is compact, the open cover {Uv }v∈W has a ﬁnite subcover. Let δ be

the maximum of the δv ’s on this subcover. Proposition 7.3.4 then implies that for any δ larger than δ , we have W ⊂ E (δ) for δ > δ . ■

7.4

The Impact of Increased Precision

In this section, we present a result, due to Kandori (1992b), showing that improving the precision of the public signals cannot reduce the set of equilibrium payoffs. A natural ranking of the informativeness of the public signals is provided by Blackwell’s (1951) partial ordering of experiments. We can view the realized signal y as the result of an experiment about the underlying space of uncertainty, the space A of pure-action proﬁles. Two different public monitoring distributions (with different signal spaces) can then be viewed as two different experiments. Let R denote the |A| × |Y |-matrix whose ath row corresponds to the probability distribution over Y conditional on the action proﬁle a. We can construct a noisier “experiment” from ρ by assuming that when y is realized under ρ, y is observed with probability 1 − ε and a 16. This requires at least two short-lived players, because a single short-lived player always has a pure best reply.

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uniform draw from Y is observed with probability ε. Denoting this distribution by ρ and the corresponding probability matrix R , we have R = RQ, where (1 − ε) + ε/|Y | ε/|Y | ··· ε/|Y | .. ε/|Y | (1 − ε) + ε/|Y | . . Q= .. .. . . ε/|Y | ε/|Y | ··· ε/|Y | (1 − ε) + ε/|Y | Note that Q is a stochastic matrix, a nonnegative matrix whose rows sum to 1. More generally, we deﬁne Definition The public monitoring distribution (Y , ρ ) is a garbling of (Y, ρ) if there exists a

7.4.1 stochastic matrix Q such that

R = RQ.

Note that there is no requirement that the signal spaces Y and Y bear any particular relationship (in particular, Y may have more or less elements than Y ). The garbling partial order is not strict. For example, if Q is a permutation matrix, then Y is simply a relabeling of Y and ρ and ρ are garblings of each other (the inverse of a stochastic matrix is a stochastic matrix if and only if it is a permutation matrix). It will be convenient to denote the set of payoffs that can be decomposed by α on W , when the discount factor is δ and the public monitoring distribution is ρ, by B(W ; δ, ρ, α). Not surprisingly, the set of payoffs that can be decomposed on W , when the discount factor is δ and the public monitoring distribution is ρ, will be written B(W ; δ, ρ). Proposition Suppose the public monitoring distribution (Y , ρ ) is a garbling of (Y, ρ), and

7.4.1 W ⊂ B(W ; δ, ρ , α) for some α. Then W ⊂ B(co (W ); δ, ρ, α). In particular, if W ⊂ B(W ; δ, ρ ), then W ⊂ B(co(W ); δ, ρ).

For large δ, the set of available continuations can often be taken to be convex (see note 15 on page 248). The available continuations are also convex if players use a public correlating device. Hence, the more precise signal y must give at least as large a set of self-generating payoffs. An immediate corollary is that the set of PPE payoffs is at least weakly increasing as the monitoring becomes more precise. Much of Kandori (1992b) is concerned with establishing conditions under which the monotonicity is strict and characterizing the nature of the increase. Proof For any γ : Y → Rn , write γi : Y → R as the vector in R|Y | describing player i’s

continuation value under γ after different signals. Fix v ∈ W and suppose v is decomposed by (α, γ ) under the public monitoring distribution ρ . For any action proﬁle α , denote the implied vector of probabilities on A also by α . Player i’s expected continuation value under ρ and γ from any action proﬁle α , is then Eρ [γi | α ] = α R γi .

Because (Y , ρ ) is a garbling of (Y, ρ), there exists a stochastic matrix Q so that R = RQ. Deﬁning γi = Qγi , we get Eρ [γi | α ] = α RQγi = α Rγi = Eρ [γi | α ].

7.5

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251

The Bang-Bang Result

In other words, for all action proﬁles α , player i’s expected continuation value under ρ and γ is the same as that under ρ and γ . Hence, α is enforced by γ under ρ. Given the vectors γi ∈ R|Y | for all i, let γ (y) ∈ Rn describe the vector of continuation values for all the players for y ∈ Y . Since Q is independent of i, qyy γ (y ), γ (y) = y ∈Y

where Q = [qyy ]. Finally, because Q is a stochastic matrix, implying γ (y) is a convex combination of the γ (y ), γ (y) ∈ co(W ). ■

7.5

The Bang-Bang Result

The analysis to this point has assumed the set of signals is ﬁnite. The results of the previous sections also hold when there is a continuum of signals, if the signals are continuously distributed, the spaces of stage-game actions are ﬁnite, and we restrict attention to pure strategies. The statements only change by requiring W to be Borel and the mapping γ to be measurable (the proofs are signiﬁcantly complicated by measurability issues; see Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti 1990). We now present the bang-bang result of Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1990, theorem 3). We take Y to be a subset of Rn with positive Lebesgue measure, and work with Lebesgue measurable functions γ : Y → W . A function has the bang-bang property if it takes on only extreme points of the set W . The set of extreme points of W ⊂ Rn is denoted extW ≡ {v ∈ W : ∃v , v ∈ coW , λ ∈ (0, 1), v = λv + (1 − λ)v }. Recall the notation from remark 7.3.3. Definition The measurable function γ : Y → W has the bang-bang property if γ (y) ∈ extW

7.5.1 for almost all y ∈ Y . A pure-strategy PPE σ has the bang-bang property if after almost every public history ht , the value of the continuation proﬁle V (σ |ht ) is in extE p (δ). The assumption of a continuum of signals is necessary for the result (see remark 7.6.3). Under that assumption, we can use Lyapunov’s convexity theorem to guarantee that the range of the extreme points of enforcing continuations of an action proﬁle lies in extW . Lyapunov’s theorem plays a similar role in the formulation of the bang-bang principle of optimal control theory. Proposition Suppose A is ﬁnite. Suppose the signals are distributed absolutely continuously

7.5.1 with respect to Lebesgue measure on a subset of Rk , for some k. Suppose W ⊂ Rn is compact and a ∈ A is enforced by γˆ on the convex hull of W . Then, there exists a measurable function γ¯ : Y → extW such that a is enforced by γ¯ on W and V(a, γˆ ) = V(a, γ¯ ). Proof Let L∞ (Y, Rn ) be the space of bounded Lebesgue measurable functions from Y

into Rn (as usual, we identify functions that agree almost everywhere). Deﬁne

ˆ = {γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) : a is enforced by γ on coW , and V(a, γ ) = V(a, γˆ )}.

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ˆ ˆ is nonempty. It is also immediate that ˆ is convex. If Y were Because γˆ ∈ , ﬁnite, it would also be immediate that ˆ is compact and so contains its extreme points (because it is a subset of a ﬁnite dimensional Euclidean space). We defer the proof that ˆ has an extreme point under the current assumptions till the end of the section (lemma 7.5.1). ˆ For ﬁnite Y , there is no expectation that the Let γ¯ be an extreme point of . range of γ¯ lies in extW (see remark 7.6.3). It is here that the continuum of signals plays a role, because the ﬁniteness of A together with an argument due to Aumann (1965, proposition 6.2) will imply that the range of γ¯ lies in extW . Suppose, en route to a contradiction, that for a positive measure set of signals, γ¯ (y) ∈ extW . Then there exists γ , γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) taking values in coW such that γ¯ = 12 (γ + γ ) and for a positive measure set of signals, γ (y) = γ (y).17 Let γ ∗ ≡ 12 (γ − γ ), so that γ¯ + γ ∗ = γ and γ¯ − γ ∗ = γ . We now deﬁne a vector-valued measure µ by setting, for any measurable set Y ⊂ Y, µ(Y ) =

Y

γi∗ (y)ρ(dy | a )

i=1,...,n;a ∈A

∈ Rn|A| ,

where ρ(· | a) is the probability measure on Y implied by a ∈ A. Because γi∗ is bounded for all i (as W is compact), µ is a vector-valued ﬁnite nonatomic measure. By Lyapunov’s convexity theorem (Aliprantis and Border 1999, theorem 12.33), {µ(Y ) : Y a measurable subset of Y } is convex.18 Hence, there exists Y such that µ(Y ) = 12 µ(Y ), with neither Y nor Y \Y having zero Lebesgue measure. Now deﬁne γ¯ , γ¯ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) by

γ¯ (y) =

γ (y),

y ∈ Y ,

γ (y), y ∈ Y ,

and γ¯ (y) =

γ (y),

y ∈ Y ,

γ (y),

y ∈ Y .

Note that both γ¯i and γ¯i take values in coW . Because

γ¯i (y)ρ(dy | a ) Y = γi (y)ρ(dy | a ) + γi (y)ρ(dy | a ) Y Y \Y = [γ¯i (y) + γi∗ (y)]ρ(dy | a ) + [γ¯i (y) − γi∗ (y)]ρ(dy | a ) Y Y \Y = γ¯i (y)ρ(dy | a ) + γi∗ (y)ρ(dy | a ) − γi∗ (y)ρ(dy | a ) Y Y Y \Y 1 1 γ¯i (y)ρ(dy | a ) + γi∗ (y)ρ(dy | a ) − γ ∗ (y)ρ(dy | a ) = 2 Y 2 Y i Y = γ¯i (y)ρ(dy | a ), Y

17. This step requires an appeal to a measurable selection theorem to ensure that γ and γ can be chosen measurable, that is, in L∞ (Y, Rn ). 18. For an elementary proof of Lyapunov’s theorem based on the intermediate value theorem, see Ross (2005).

7.5

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253

The Bang-Bang Result

ˆ A similar calculation shows that we also have γ¯ ∈ . ˆ Finally, note that γ¯ ∈ . 1 γ¯ = 2 (γ¯ + γ¯ ) and for a positive measure set of signals, y ∈ Y , γ¯ (y) = γ¯ (y). ˆ But this contradicts γ¯ being an extreme point of . ■

Remark Adding a public correlating device to a ﬁnite public monitoring game with a ﬁnite

7.5.1 signal space yields a public monitoring game whose signals satisfy the hypotheses ¯ in the ﬁnite public monitoring game. of proposition 7.5.1. Suppose Y = {y, y} Denoting the realization of the correlating device by ω ∈ [0, 1], a signal is now y˜ =

ω,

if y = y,

ω + 1,

if y = y. ¯

If the distribution of ω is absolutely continuous on [0, 1], such as for the public correlating device described in deﬁnition 2.1.1, then the distribution of y˜ is absolutely continuous on [0, 2]. The analysis in section 7.2.3 provides a convenient illustration of the bang-bang property in a symmetric setting. For δ ≥ 1/(3p − 2q), the two extreme values are 0 and 2 − (1 − p)/(p − q), and the optimal PPE determines a set of values for ω (though the set is not unique, its probability is and is given by φ), which leads to a bang-bang equilibrium with value 2 − (1 − p)/(p − q). More generally, any particular equilibrium payoff can be decomposed using a correlating distribution with ﬁnite support (because, from Carathéodory’s theorem [Rockafellar 1970, theorem 17.1], any point in co W can be written as a ﬁnite convex combination of points in ext W ). To ensure that any equilibrium payoff can be decomposed, however, the correlating device must have a continuum of values, so that any ﬁnite distribution can be constructed. Even in the absence of a public correlating device, a continuously distributed public signal (via Lyapunov’s theorem) effectively allows us to construct any ﬁnite support public randomizing device “for free.” For example, if the support of y is the unit interval, by dividing the interval into small subintervals, and identifying alternating subintervals with Heads and Tails, we obtain a coin ﬂip. ◆ Corollary Under the hypotheses of proposition 7.5.1, if W ⊂ Rn is compact, B p (W ) =

7.5.1 B p (coW ). Proof By monotonicity of B p , we immediately have B p (W ) ⊂ B p (coW ). Proposi-

tion 7.5.1 implies B p (coW ) ⊂ B p (W ). ■

Corollary Under the hypotheses of proposition 7.5.1, if 0 < δ1 < δ2 < 1, E p (δ1 ) ⊂ E p (δ2 ).

7.5.2 Proof Let W = E p (δ1 ). From proposition 7.3.4, W ⊂ B p (coW ; δ2 ). Because W is

compact, corollary 7.5.1 implies W ⊂ B p (W ; δ2 ). Because W is self-generating (with respect to δ2 ), proposition 7.3.1 implies W ⊂ E p (δ2 ). ■

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Remark Symmetric games Recall that an equilibrium of a symmetric game is strongly

7.5.2 symmetric if all players choose the same action after every public history. Proposition 7.5.1 applies to strongly symmetric PPE.19 Consequently, strongly symmetric equilibria have a particulary simple structure in this case, because there are only two extreme points in the convex hull of the set of strongly symmetric PPE payoffs (we discuss an example in detail in section 11.1.1). However, proposition 7.5.1 does not immediately imply a similar simple structure for general PPE. As we will see in chapter 9, we are often interested in self-generating sets that are balls, whose set of extreme points is a circle with two players and the surface of a sphere with three players. Restricting continuations to this set is not a major simpliﬁcation. ◆ We now complete the proof of proposition 7.5.1. Lemma Under the hypotheses of proposition 7.5.1,

7.5.1 ˆ = {γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) : a is enforced by γ on coW , and V(a, γ ) = V(a, γˆ )}, has an extreme point. Proof We denote by L1 (Y, Rm ) the collection of functions f = (f1 , . . . , fm ), with

each fi Lebesgue integrable. Writing ei for the ith standard basis vector (i.e., the vector whose ith coordinate equals 1 and all other coordinates are 0), any function f ∈ L1 (Y, Rm ) can be written as i fi ei , with fi ∈ L1 (Y, R). For any continuous linear functional F on L1 (Y, Rm ), let Fi be the implied linear functional on L1 (Y, R) deﬁned by, for any function h ∈ L1 (Y, R), Fi (h) ≡ F (hei ). From the Riesz representation theorem (Royden 1988, theorem 6.13), there exists 2 gi ∈ L∞ (Y, R), such that for all h ∈ L1 (Y, R), Fi (h) = hgi . Then, F (f ) =

i

F (fi ei ) =

i

Fi (fi ) =

i

fi gi =

f, g,

where g = (g1 , . . . , gm ) ∈ L∞ (Y, Rm ), and ·, · is the standard inner product on Rm . Hence, L∞ (Y, Rm ) is the dual of L1 (Y, Rm ), and so the set of functions g∞ ≤ 1 (the “unit ball”) is weak-* compact (by Alaoglu’s theorem; Aliprantis and Border 1999, theorem 6.25). But this immediately implies the weak-* compactness of ˆ † ≡ {γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ) : γ (y) ∈ coW ∀y ∈ Y }, because for some m ≤ n, it is the image of the unit ball in L∞ (Y, Rm ) under a continuous function. (Because coW is compact and convex, it is homeomorphic to {w ∈ Rm : |w| ≤ 1} for some m; let ϕ : {w ∈ Rm : |w| ≤ 1} → coW denote the homeomorphism. Then, ˆ † is the image of the unit ball in L∞ (Y, Rm ) under the continuous map J , where J (g) = ϕ ◦ g.) 19. Abreu, Pearce, and Stacchetti (1986) develops the argument for strongly symmetric equilibria.

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255

An Example with Short-Lived Players

ˆ and argue that it is a weak-* closed subset of ˆ † . Suppose We now turn to , ∞ n γ ∈ L (Y, R ) is the weak-* limit of a net {γ β }. Hence,

γ β (y), f (y)dy →

γ (y), f (y)dy

∀f ∈ L1 (Y, Rn ),

and, in particular, for all i,

β

γi (y)f (y)dy →

γi (y)f (y)dy

∀f ∈ L1 (Y, R).

Because the signals are distributed absolutely continuously with respect to Lebesgue measure, for each action proﬁle, a ∈ A, there is a Radon-Nikodym derivative dρ(· | a )/dy ∈ L1 (Y, R) with

γi (y)ρ(dy | a ) =

γi (y)

dρ(y | a ) dy, dy

∀i,

∀γ ∈ L∞ (Y, Rn ).

This implies that ˆ is a weak-* closed (and so compact) subset of ˆ † , because the additional constraints on γ that deﬁne ˆ only involve expressions of the 2 form γi (y)ρ(dy | a ). Finally, the Krein-Milman theorem (Aliprantis and Border 1999, theorem 5.117) implies that ˆ has an extreme point. ■

7.6

An Example with Short-Lived Players

We revisit the product-choice example of example 2.7.1. The stage game payoffs are reproduced in ﬁgure 7.6.1. We begin with the game on the left, where player 1 is a long-lived and player 2 a short-lived player. We also begin with perfect monitoring. For a mixed proﬁle α in the stage game, let α H = α1 (H ) and α h = α2 (h). We denote a mixed action for player 1 by α H and for player 2 by α h . Then the relevant set of proﬁles incorporating the myopic behavior of player 2 is B = (α H , ) : α H ≤ 12 ∪ (α H , h) : α H ≥ 12 ∪ ( 12 , α h ) : α h ∈ [0, 1] .

h

H

2, 3

0, 2

L

3, 0

1, 1

h

H

2, 3

1, 2

L

3, 0

0, 1

Figure 7.6.1 The games from ﬁgure 2.7.1. The left game is the

product-choice game of ﬁgure 1.5.1. Player 1’s action L is a best reply to 2’s choice of in the left game, but not in the right.

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Moreover, from section 2.7.2, player 1’s minmax payoff, v1 , equals 1, and the upper bound on his equilibrium payoffs, v¯1 , equals 2. In other words, the set of possible PPE player 1 payoffs is the interval [1, 2]. Because there is only one long-lived player, enforceability and decomposition occur on subsets of R, and we drop the subscript on player 1 payoffs. 7.6.1 Perfect Monitoring With perfect monitoring, the set of signals is simply A1 × A2 . The simplest candidate equilibrium in which Hh is played is the grim trigger proﬁle in which play begins with Hh, and remains there until the ﬁrst deviation, after which play is perpetual L. This proﬁle is described by the doubleton set of payoffs {1, 2}. It is readily veriﬁed that this set is self-generating for δ ≥ 1/2, and so the trigger strategy proﬁle is a PPE, and so a subgame-perfect equilibrium, for δ ≥ 1/2. We now ask when the set [1, 2] is self-generating, and begin with the pure proﬁles in B, namely, Hh and L. Because L is a stage-game Nash equilibrium, L is trivially enforceable using a constant continuation. Player 1’s payoffs must lie in the interval [1, 2], so the set of payoffs decomposed by L on [1, 2], W L , is given by v ∈ W L ⇐⇒ ∃γ ∈ [1, 2] such that v = V(L, γ ) = (1 − δ) + δγ . Hence, W L = [1, 1 + δ]. The enforceability of Hh on [1, 2] is straightforward. The pair of continuations γ = (γ (Lh), γ (Hh)) enforces Hh if (1 − δ)2 + δγ (Hh) ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δγ (Lh), that is, γ (Hh) ≥ γ (Lh) +

(1 − δ) . δ

(7.6.1)

Hence, the set of payoffs decomposed by Hh on [1, 2], W Hh , is given by v ∈ W Hh ⇐⇒ ∃γ (Lh), γ (Hh) ∈ [1, 2] satisfying (7.6.1) such that v = V(Hh, γ ) = (1 − δ)2 + δγ (Hh). Hence, W Hh = [3 − 2δ, 2] if δ ≥ 1/2 (it is empty if δ < 1/2). The set of possible PPE payoffs [1, 2] is self-generating if W L ∪ W Hh ⊃ [1, 2]. Thus, [1, 2] is self-generating, and so every payoff in [1, 2] is a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff, if δ ≥ 2/3. This requirement on δ is tighter than the requirement (δ ≥ 1/2) for grim trigger to be an equilibrium. Just as in section 2.5.4, we could describe the equilibrium-outcome path for any v ∈ [1, 2]. Of course, here player 2’s action is always a myopic best reply to that of player 1. Although W L ∪ W Hh ⊃ [1, 2] is sufﬁcient for the self-generation of [1, 2], it is not necessary, as we now illustrate. In fact, the set [1, 2] is self-generating for δ ∈ [1/2, 2/3) as well as for higher δ once we use mixed strategies. Consider the

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An Example with Short-Lived Players

mixed proﬁle α = (1/2, α h ) for ﬁxed α h ∈ [0, 1]. Because both actions for player 1 are played with strictly positive probability, the continuations γ must satisfy v = α h [(1 − δ)2 + δγ (Hh)] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) × 0 + δγ (H )] = α h [(1 − δ)3 + δγ (Lh)] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) + δγ (L)], where the ﬁrst expression is the expected payoff from H and the second is that from L. Rearranging, we have the requirement δα h [γ (Hh) − γ (H ) − (γ (Lh) − γ (L))] = (1 − δ) + δ(γ (L) − γ (H )). We now try enforcing α with continuations that satisfy γ (Hh) = γ (H ) ≡ γ H and γ (Lh) = γ (L) ≡ γ L . Imposing this constraint yields γH = γL +

(1 − δ) . δ

(7.6.2)

Because we can choose γ H , γ L ∈ [1, 2] to satisfy this constraint as long as δ ≥ 1/2, we conclude that α is enforceable on [1, 2]. Moreover, the set of payoffs decomposed by α = (1/2, α h ) on [1, 2], W α , is given by v ∈ W α ⇐⇒ ∃γ L , γ H ∈ [1, 2] satisfying (7.6.2) such that v = V(α, γ ) = 2α h (1 − δ) + δγ H . Hence, W α = [2α h (1 − δ) + 1, 2α h (1 − δ) + 2δ]. Finally, ∪{α:α h ∈[0,1]} W α = [1, 2]. Hence, the set of payoffs [1, 2] is self-generating, and therefore is the maximal set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs, for all δ ≥ 1/2. The lower bound on δ agrees with that for the trigger strategy proﬁle to be an equilibrium, and is lower than for self-generation of [1, 2] under pure strategies. Moreover, we have shown that for any v ∈ [1, 2], a subgame-perfect equilibrium with that expected payoff has the long-run player randomizing in every period, putting equal probability on H and L, independent of history. The randomizations of the short-lived player, on the other hand, do depend on history. We now ask whether there is a simple strategy of this form. In particular, is the doubleton set {γ L , γ H } ≡ {γ H − (1 − δ)/δ, γ H } self-generating, where the value for γ L was chosen to satisfy (7.6.2)? The payoff γ H is decomposed by α = (1/2, α h (H )) on {γ L , γ H }, with α h (H ) = γ H /2. The payoff γ L is decomposed by α = (1/2, α h (L)) on {γ L , γ H } if γ L = α h (L) 2 (1 − δ) + δγ H .

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Figure 7.6.2 The automaton representing the proﬁle with payoffs {γ L , γ H }. The associated behavior is f (γ H ) = (1/2, α h (H )) and f (γ L ) = (1/2, α h (L)). Building on the intuition of section 7.3, states are labeled with their values. State transitions only depend on player 1’s realized action and player 1 plays identically in the two states, whereas player 2 plays differently.

Solving for the implied α h (L) gives γ H (1 − δ)δ − (1 − δ) γ L − δγ H = 2(1 − δ) 2δ(1 − δ) δγ H − 1 1 = α h (H ) − . = 2δ 2δ

α h (L) =

The quantities α h (H ) and α h (L) are well-deﬁned probabilities for γ H ∈ [1/δ, 2] and δ ≥ 1/2. Note that the implied range for γ L is [1, 2 − (1 − δ)/δ]. Hence, we have a one-dimensional manifold of mixed equilibria. The associated proﬁle is displayed in ﬁgure 7.6.2. Player 1 is indifferent between L, the myopically dominant action, and H , because a play of H is rewarded in the next period by h with probability α H , rather than with the lower probability α L . Remark Because player 1’s behavior in these mixed strategy equilibria is independent of

7.6.1 history, based on such proﬁles, it is possible to construct nontrivial equilibria when signals are private, precluding the use of histories to coordinate continuation play. We construct such an equilibrium in section 12.5. ◆ We turn now to the stage game on the right in ﬁgure 7.6.1, maintaining perfect monitoring and our convention on α H and α h . The relevant set of proﬁles is still given by the set B calculated earlier (since player 2’s payoffs are identical in the two games). Moreover, the bounds on player 1’s equilibrium payoffs are unchanged: Player 1’s payoffs must lie in the interval [1, 2]. The crucial change is that player 1’s choice L (facilitating 2’s minmaxing of 1) is no longer a myopic best reply to that action of . As before, we begin with the pure proﬁles in B, namely, Hh and L. Because L is not a stage-game Nash equilibrium, the enforceability of L must be dealt with similarly to that of Hh. The enforceability of both L and Hh on [1, 2] is, as before, immediate; it is enough that γ (L) − γ (H ), γˆ (Hh) − γˆ (Lh) ≥ (1 − δ)/δ, where γ and γˆ are the continuation functions for L and Hh, respectively. Hence, the set of payoffs decomposed by L is the interval [1, 2δ], whereas the set of payoffs decomposed by Hh is the interval [3 − 2δ, 2]. Thus, [1, 2] is self-generating for δ ≥ 3/4. Because L is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, there are no pure strategy equilibria in trigger strategies. However, as we saw in example 2.7.1, there are simple

7.6

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259

An Example with Short-Lived Players

Figure 7.6.3 The automaton representing the proﬁle with payoffs {2δ, 2}. The associated behavior is f (wa ) = a.

proﬁles in which Hh is played. For example, the doubleton set of payoffs {2δ, 2} is easily seen to be self-generating if δ ≥ 1/2, because in that case 2 − 2δ ≥ (1 − δ)/δ. This self-generating set corresponds to the equilibrium described in example 2.7.1, and illustrated in ﬁgure 7.6.3. We now turn to enforceability of mixed-action proﬁles, α = (1/2, α h ) for ﬁxed h α ∈ [0, 1]. Similarly to before, the continuations γ must satisfy v = α h [(1 − δ)2 + δγ (Hh)] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) + δγ (H )] = α h [(1 − δ)3 + δγ (Lh)] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) × 0 + δγ (L)]. Rearranging, we have α h [(1 − δ)2 + δ(γ (Lh) − γ (L) − (γ (Hh) − γ (H )))] = (1 − δ) + δ(γ (H ) − γ (L)).

(7.6.3)

We now try enforcing α with continuations that satisfy γ (Hh) = γ (H ) ≡ γ H and γ (Lh) = γ (L) ≡ γ L . Imposing this constraint, and rearranging, yields γ H = γ L + (2α h − 1)

(1 − δ) . δ

(7.6.4)

Because for δ ≥ 1/2 and any α h ∈ [0, 1] we can choose γ H , γ L ∈ [1, 2] to satisfy this constraint, α is enforceable on [1, 2]. Note that, unlike for the product choice game, here the continuations depend on the current randomizing behavior of player 2. This is a result of player 1’s myopic incentive to play L depending on the current play of player 2. An alternative would be to choose continuations so that the coefﬁcient of α h equaled 0 in (7.6.3), in which case continuations depend on the realized action of player 2. The set of payoffs decomposed by α = (1/2, α h ) on [1, 2], W α , is given by v ∈ W α ⇐⇒ ∃γ L , γ H ∈ [1, 2] satisfying (7.6.4) such that v = 3α h (1 − δ) + δγ L . Hence, for α h ≥ 1/2, W α = [3α h (1 − δ) + δ, α h (1 − δ) + 1 + δ], and for α h ≤ 1/2, W α = [α h (1 − δ) + 1, 3α h (1 − δ) + 2δ].

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Finally, ∪{α:α h ∈[0,1]} W α = [1, 2]. Hence, the set of payoffs [1, 2] is self-generating for δ ≥ 1/2. Consequently, every payoff in [1, 2] is a subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff for δ ≥ 1/2. 7.6.2 Imperfect Public Monitoring of the Long-Lived Player We now discuss the impact of public monitoring on the product-choice game (the left game in ﬁgure 7.6.1). The actions of the long-lived player are now not public, but there ¯ of his action. We interpret y¯ as high quality and y as low is a public signal y1 ∈ {y, y} quality. The actions of the short-lived player remain public, and so the space of public ¯ × A2 .20 The distribution of y1 is given by signals is Y ≡ {y, y} ρ1 (y¯ | a) =

p, if a1 = H ,

q,

if a1 = L,

(7.6.5)

with 0 < q < p < 1. The joint distribution ρ over Y is given by ρ(y1 y2 | a) = ρ1 (y1 | a) if y2 = a2 , and 0 otherwise. The relevant set of proﬁles continues to be given by the set B calculated earlier. Moreover, the bounds on player 1’s equilibrium payoffs are still valid: Player 1’s payoffs must lie in the interval [1, 2]. Denote player 1’s maximum PPE payoff by v ∗ ≥ 1 (recall that because there is only one long-lived player, we drop the subscript on player 1’s payoff). As before, we begin with the pure proﬁles in B, namely, Hh and L. Because L is a stage-game Nash equilibrium, L is trivially enforceable using a constant continuation. Moreover, we consider ﬁrst only continuations implemented by pure strategy PPE. Let v ∗p denote the maximum pure strategy PPE player 1 payoff. Player 1’s payoffs must lie in the interval [1, v ∗p ], so the set of payoffs decomposed by L on [1, v ∗p ], W L , is given by v ∈ W L ⇐⇒ ∃γ ∈ [1, v ∗p ] such that v = (1 − δ) + δγ . Hence,

W L = [1, 1 + δ(v ∗p − 1)].

It is worth noting that if v ∗p > 1, then v ∗p ∈ W L . ¯ × A2 → [1, v ∗p ] enforce Hh if The continuations γ : {y, y} 2(1 − δ) + δ{pγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − p)γ (yh)} ≥ 3(1 − δ) + δ{qγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − q)γ (yh)}, that is, γ (yh) ¯ ≥ γ (yh) +

(1 − δ) . δ(p − q)

(7.6.6)

Hence, the payoff following the good signal y¯ must exceed that of the bad signal y by the difference (1 − δ)/[δ(p − q)]. This payoff difference shrinks as the discount 20. It is worth noting that the analysis is unchanged when the short-lived players’ actions are not public. This corresponds to taking {y, y} ¯ as the space of public signals.

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261

An Example with Short-Lived Players

factor increases, and hence the temptation of a current deviation diminishes, and as p − q increases, and hence signals become more responsive to actions. Let W Hh denote the set of payoffs that can be decomposed by Hh on [1, v ∗p ]. Then, v ∈ W Hh ⇐⇒ ∃γ (yh), γ (yh) ¯ ∈ [1, v ∗p ] satisfying (7.6.6) such that v = V(Hh, γ ) = (1 − δ)2 + δ{pγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − p)γ (yh)}. The maximum value of W Hh is obtained by setting γ (yh) ¯ = v ∗p and having (7.6.6) hold with equality. We thus have (if v ∗p > 1) v ∗p = max W Hh = (1 − δ)2 −

(1 − δ)(1 − p) + δv ∗p , (p − q)

and solving for v ∗p gives v ∗p = 2 −

(1 − p) < 2 = v. ¯ (p − q)

We need to verify that v ∗p > 1, which is equivalent to (1 − p) < (p − q), that is, 2p − q > 1. If 2p − q ≤ 1, then the only pure strategy PPE is L in every period. Remark Inefficiency due to binding moral hazard Player 1 is subject to binding moral

7.6.2 hazard (deﬁnition 8.3.1). As a result, all PPE are inefﬁcient (proposition 8.3.1). We have just shown that the maximum pure strategy PPE player 1 payoff is strictly less than 2. We next demonstrate that for large δ, all PPE in this example are bounded away from efﬁciency (we return to the general case in section 8.3.2). This is in contrast to both the perfect monitoring version of this example (where we have already seen that for a sufﬁciently patient long-lived player, there are efﬁcient PPE), and the general case of only long-lived players (where, under appropriate regularity conditions and for patient players, there are approximately efﬁcient PPE, proposition 9.2.1). Intuitively, the imperfection in the monitoring implies that on the equilibrium path player 1 must face low continuations with positive probability. Because player 2 is short-lived, it is impossible to use intertemporal transfers of payoffs to maintain efﬁciency while still providing incentives. ◆ The minimum value of W Hh is obtained by setting γ (yh) = 1 and having (7.6.6) hold with equality. We thus have min W Hh = 1 +

(1 − δ)(2p − q) . (p − q)

The set of payoffs [1, v ∗p ] is self-generating using pure strategies if W L ∪ W Hh ⊃ [1, v ∗p ], which is implied by min W Hh ≤ max W L .

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Substituting and solving for the bound on δ gives (2p − q) ≤ δ. (4p − 2q − 1)

(7.6.7)

The bound 2p − q > 1 implies the left side is less than 1. When W L ∪ W Hh ⊃ [1, v ∗p ], v ∗p can be achieved in a pure strategy equilibrium, ¯ decomposing v ∗p using Hh are because the continuation promises γ (yh) and γ (yh) L Hh ¯ elements of W ∪ W , and the continuation promises supporting γ (yh) and γ (yh) are themselves in W L ∪ W Hh , and so on. A strategy proﬁle that achieves the payoff v ∗p can be constructed as follows. First, set γ (v) = (v − (1 − δ))/δ (the constant continuation decomposing v using L), and let γ y¯ , γ y : [0, v ∗p ] → R be the functions solving v = V(Hh, (γ y¯ (v), γ y (v))) when (7.6.6) holds with equality: 2(1 − δ) (1 − p)(1 − δ) v − + , δ δ δ(p − q) 2(1 − δ) p(1 − δ) v γy = − − . δ δ δ(p − q)

γ y¯ = and

Now, deﬁne ζ : H → [1, v ∗p ] as follows: ζ (∅) = v ∗p and for ht ∈ H t , y¯ t t Hh γ (ζ (h )), if y1 = y¯ and ζ (h ) ∈ W , ζ (ht , y1 a2 ) = γ y (ζ (ht )), if y1 = y and ζ (ht ) ∈ W Hh , γ (ζ (ht )), if ζ (ht ) ∈ W L \W Hh . The strategies are then given by σ1 (∅) = H, σ2 (∅) = h, H, if ζ (ht ) ∈ W Hh , t σ1 (h ) = L, if ζ (ht ) ∈ W L \W Hh , and

σ2 (h ) = t

h,

if ζ (ht ) ∈ W Hh ,

,

if ζ (ht ) ∈ W L \W Hh .

We thus associate with every history of signals ht a continuation payoff ζ (ht ). This continuation payoff allows us to associate an action with the history, either Hh or L, depending on whether the continuation payoff lies in the set W Hh or W L \W Hh . We then associate with the signals continuation payoffs that decompose the current continuation payoff into the payoff of the currently prescribed action and a new continuation payoff. If the currently prescribed action is L, this decomposition is trivial, as the current payoff is 1 and there are no incentives to be created. We can then take the continuation payoff to be simply (ζ (ht ) − (1 − δ))/δ. When the currently prescribed action is Hh, we assign continuation payoffs according to the functions γ y¯ and γ y that allow us to enforce payoffs in the set W Hh . There is still the possibility that mixing by the players will allow player 1 to achieve a higher PPE payoff or achieve additional PPE payoffs for lower δ. In what follows,

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263

An Example with Short-Lived Players

recall that v ∗ is the maximum player 1 PPE payoff, allowing for mixed strategies, and so v ∗ ≥ v ∗p . Consider the mixed proﬁle α = (1/2, α h ) for ﬁxed α h ∈ [0, 1]. Because both actions for player 1 are played with strictly positive probability, the continuations γ must satisfy ¯ + (1 − p)γ (yh)}] v = α h [(1 − δ)2 + δ{pγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − p)γ (y)}] + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) × 0 + δ{pγ (y) = α h [(1 − δ)3 + δ{qγ (yh) ¯ + (1 − q)γ (yh)}] ¯ + (1 − q)γ (y)}], + (1 − α h )[(1 − δ) + δ{qγ (y) where the ﬁrst expression is the expected payoff from H and the second is that from L. Rearranging, the continuations must satisfy the requirement δ(p − q)[α h γ (yh) ¯ + (1 − α h )γ (y) ¯ − {α h γ (yh) + (1 − α h )γ (y)}] = (1 − δ). (7.6.8)

Letting

¯ + (1 − α h )γ (y) ¯ γ y¯ (α h ) = α h γ (yh)

and γ y (α h ) = α h γ (yh) + (1 − α h )γ (y), requirement (7.6.8) can be rewritten as γ y¯ (α h ) = γ y (α h ) +

(1 − δ) . δ(p − q)

(7.6.9)

If we can choose γ (y1 a2 ) ∈ [1, v ∗ ] to satisfy this constraint, then α is enforceable on [1, v ∗ ]. A sufﬁcient condition to do so is (1 − δ) ≤ v ∗p − 1 δ(p − q) because v ∗p ≤ v ∗ . The above inequality is implied by 1 ≤ δ. (2p − q)

(7.6.10)

If α is enforceable on [1, v ∗ ], the set of payoffs decomposed by α = (1/2, α h ) on [1, v ∗ ], W α , is given by v ∈ W α ⇐⇒ ∃γ (y1 a2 ) ∈ [1, v ∗ ] satisfying (7.6.9) such that v = V(α, γ ) = 2α h (1 − δ) + δ{pγ y¯ (α h ) + (1 − p)γ y (α h )}. Hence, W

α

" p(1 − δ) (1 − p)(1 − δ) h ∗ , 2α (1 − δ) + δv − , = 2α (1 − δ) + δ + (p − q) (p − q) !

h

which is nonempty if (7.6.10) holds.

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We can now determine v ∗ : Because v ∗ = supα max W α , and the supremum is achieved by α h = 1, it is straightforward to verify v ∗ = v ∗p . Hence, under (7.6.10), ∪{α:α h ∈[0,1]} W α = [1, v ∗ ] = [1, v ∗p ], and the set of payoffs [1, v ∗ ] is self-generating, and so is the maximal set of PPE payoffs, for all δ satisfying (7.6.10). Moreover, this lower bound on δ is lower than that in (7.6.7), the bound for self-generation of [1, v ∗ ] under pure strategies. Remark Failure of bang-bang The payoff v ∗ can only be decomposed by (Hh, γˆ ) on

7.6.3 [1, v ∗ ], where γˆ (y) ¯ = v ∗ and γˆ (y) solves (7.6.6) with equality. Consequently, the set ˆ in the proof of proposition 7.5.1 is the singleton {γˆ }, and so (trivially) γˆ is ˆ Because ext[1, v ∗ ] = {1, v ∗ }, γˆ (y) ∈ ext[1, v ∗ ], and the an extreme point of . bang-bang property fails. The problem is that after the signal y, decomposability of v ∗ requires a lower payoff than v ∗ , but not as low as 1. If there was a public correlating device, then the bang-bang property could trivially be achieved by specifying a public correlation over continuations in {1, v ∗ } whose expected value equaled γˆ (y). ◆

7.7

The Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Redux

7.7.1 Symmetric Inefficiency Revisited Let γ¯ be the largest payoff in any strongly symmetric pure-strategy PPE of the repeated prisoners’ dilemma from section 7.2. From (7.2.17), we know γ¯ ≤ 2 −

(1 − p) . (p − q)

(7.7.1)

We now show that this upper bound can be achieved without the correlating device used in section 7.2.3. The strategy proﬁle in section 7.2.3 used grim trigger, with a bad signal triggering permanent SS with a probability smaller than 1 (using public correlation). Here we show that by appropriately keeping track of the history of signals, we can effectively do the same thing without public correlation. We are interested in strongly symmetric pure-strategy equilibria, so we need only be concerned with the enforceability of EE and SS, and we will be enforcing on diagonal subsets of R2 , that is, subsets where γ1 = γ2 . We treat such subsets as subsets of R. We are interested in constructing a proﬁle similar to grim trigger, but where the ﬁrst observation of y need not trigger the switch to SS. (Two examples of such proﬁles are displayed in ﬁgures 13.4.1 and 13.4.2.) We show that a set W ≡ {0} ∪ [γ , γ¯ ], with γ > 0, is self-generating. Note that W is not an interval. Observe ﬁrst that 0 is trivially decomposed on this set by SS, because SS is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game and no intertemporal considerations are needed to enforce SS. Hence a constant continuation payoff of 0 sufﬁces. We decompose the other payoffs using EE, with two different speciﬁcations of continuations. Let W be the set of payoffs that can be decomposed using EE on W and imposing the continuation value γ y = 0, whereas W will be the set of payoffs that can be decomposed using EE on [γ , γ¯ ] (so that γ y > 0).

7.7

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The Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Redux

265

The pair of values γ = (γ y , γ y¯ ) enforces EE if (1 − δ)2 + δ{pγ y¯ + (1 − p)γ y } ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δ{qγ y¯ + (1 − q)γ y }, that is, γ y¯ ≥ γ y +

(1 − δ) ≡ γ y + . δ(p − q)

(7.7.2)

The set of payoffs that can be decomposed using EE on W and imposing the continuation value γ y = 0 is given by v ∈ W ⇐⇒ ∃γ y¯ ∈ [γ , γ¯ ] satisfying (7.7.2) such that v = V(EE, γ ) = (1 − δ)2 + δpγ y¯ . Observe that if W is self-generating, then the minimum of W must equal γ . To ﬁnd that value, we set γ y¯ = γ , and solve γ = (1 − δ)2 + δpγ to obtain

(1 − δ)2 . 1 − δp To decompose γ in this way, (7.7.2) must be feasible, that is, γ =

γ ≥

(1 − δ) , δ(p − q)

or δ≥

1 ≡ δ0 . (3p − 2q)

(7.7.3)

When this condition holds, the two-point set {0, γ } is self-generating (and corresponds to grim trigger), whereas the set W is empty if (7.7.3) fails. The bound (7.7.3) is the same as that for grim trigger to be an equilibrium without (see (7.2.4)) or with (see (7.2.16)) public correlation. The maximum value of W , γ¯ is obtained by setting γ y¯ = γ¯ , and so we have " ! (1 − δ)2 , 2(1 − δ) + δpγ¯ . W = [γ , γ¯ ] = 1 − δp We now consider W . To ﬁnd the maximum v ∈ W , we set v = γ¯ = γ y¯ and suppose (7.7.2) holds with equality: (1 − δ) γ¯ = (1 − δ)2 + δ p γ¯ + (1 − p) γ¯ − δ(p − q) (1 − p)(1 − δ) , = 2(1 − δ) + δ γ¯ − (p − q) so that γ¯ = 2 −

(1 − p) , (p − q)

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matching the value in (7.7.1). If condition (7.7.3) holds with equality, then γ = γ¯ . We must also verify that (7.7.2) is consistent with decomposing γ¯ on [γ , γ¯ ], which requires γ ≤ γ¯ − = γ¯ −

(1 − δ) . δ(p − q)

(7.7.4)

Because γ¯ is independent of δ, and both and γ converge to 0 as δ → 1, there exists a δ1 < 1 such that for δ > δ1 , (7.7.4) is satisﬁed. Moreover, because γ = γ¯ for δ = δ0 (the lower bound in (7.7.3)), δ1 > δ0 . This implies that for δ ∈ [δ0 , δ1 ), W is empty. To ﬁnd the minimum value γ ≡ min W , we set γ y = γ and again suppose (7.7.2) holds with equality. We thus have " ! (1 − p) W = [γ , γ¯ ] = 2(1 − δ) + δγ + δp, 2 − . (p − q) For self-generation, we need W = {0} ∪ W ∪ W , which is implied by γ ≤ γ¯ . This is equivalent to γ ≤ p(γ¯ − ). Similarly to (7.7.4), there exists δ2 > δ1 such that the above inequality holds for all larger δ. If δ ≥ δ2 , the upper bound γ¯ can be achieved in a pure strategy symmetric equilibrium. The implied strategy proﬁle has a structure similar to grim trigger with public correlation. For all strictly positive continuation values, the players continue to exert effort, but the ﬁrst time a continuation γ y equals 0, SS is played permanently thereafter. Remark Multiple self-generating sets We could instead have determined the conditions

7.7.1 under which the entire interval [0, γ¯ ] is self-generating. Because the analysis for that case is very similar to that in section 7.6.2, we simply observe that [0, γ¯ ] is indeed self-generating if δ≥

3p − 2q . 2(3p − 2q) − 1

(7.7.5)

Notice that the bound δ2 and the bound given by (7.7.5) exceed the bound (7.2.16) for obtaining γ¯ with public correlation. The self-generating sets [0, γ¯ ] and {0} ∪ [γ , γ¯ ] allow Nash reversion (because both include the payoff 0). Because PPE need not rely on Nash reversion (for example, the proﬁle in section 7.2.2 has one-period recall), there are self-generating sets that exclude 0 and indeed that exclude a neighborhood of 0. For example, it is easily veriﬁed that if q < 2r, the set [1, γ¯ ] is self-generating for sufﬁciently large δ. Finally, the set of continuation values generated by a strongly symmetric PPE with bounded recall (see deﬁnition 13.3.1) is a ﬁnite self-generating set and, if EE can be played, excludes 0. ◆

7.7

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The Repeated Prisoners’ Dilemma Redux

267

As p − q → 0, the bounds on δ implied by (7.7.3)–(7.7.5) become increasingly severe and the maximum strongly symmetric PPE payoff converges to 0. This is not surprising, because if p − q is small, it is very difﬁcult to detect a deviation when the opponent is choosing E. In particular, if p − q is sufﬁciently close to 0 that (7.7.2) is violated, even for γ y¯ = 2 and γ y = 0, the pure-action proﬁle EE cannot be enforced. On the other hand, if q − r is large, then the distribution over signals under ES is very different than under SS. Thus, if player i is playing S with positive probability, then E may now be enforceable. (This possibility also underlies the superiority of the private strategy examples of sections 10.2 and 10.4.) Consequently, there may be strongly symmetric mixed equilibria with a payoff strictly larger than 0, a possibility we explore in section 7.7.2. The observation that even though a pure-action proﬁle a is unenforceable, a mixed-action proﬁle that assigns positive probability to a may be enforceable, is more general. Remark Symmetric payoffs from asymmetric profiles If q > 2r, it is possible to achieve

7.7.2 the symmetric payoff of (1, 1) using the asymmetric action proﬁles ES and SE. For sufﬁciently large δ, familiar calculations verify that the largest set of pure-strategy PPE payoffs in which only ES and SE are played in each period is W = {(v ∈ R2 : v1 + v2 = 2, vi ≥ r/(q − r), i = 1, 2} (i.e., W is the largest self-generating set using only ES and SE). Because q > 2r, we have r/(q − r) < 1 < 2 − r/(q − r), and there is an asymmetric pure-strategy PPE in which each player has payoff 1. Hence, for p sufﬁciently close to q, although (1, 1) cannot be achieved in a strongly symmetric PPE, it can be achieved in an asymmetric PPE. Finally, there is an asymmetric equilibrium in which EE is never played, and player 2’s payoff is strictly larger than 2 − r/(q − r) (this PPE uses SS to relax incentive constraints, see note 6 on page 289). ◆

7.7.2 Enforcing a Mixed-Action Profile Let α denote a completely mixed symmetric action proﬁle in the prisoners’ dilemma. We ﬁrst argue that α can in some situations be enforced even when EE cannot. When q is close to p, player 1 still has a (weak) incentive to play E when player 2 is randomizing because with positive probability (the probability that 2 plays S) a change from E to S will substantially change the distribution over signals. To conserve on notation, we denote the probability that each player assigns to E in the symmetric proﬁle by α. Let ¯ The payoff to player 1 from E when γ y , γ y¯ ∈ F † be the continuations after y and y. player 2 is randomizing with probability α on E is y¯ y γ g1 (E, α) = α 2(1 − δ) + δ pγ1 + (1 − p)γ1 y¯ y + (1 − α) (−1)(1 − δ) + δ qγ1 + (1 − q)γ1 y¯ y = (1 − δ)(3α − 1) + δ α pγ1 + (1 − p)γ1 y¯ y + (1 − α) qγ1 + (1 − q)γ1 .

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The payoff from S is y¯ y γ g1 (S, α) = α 3(1 − δ) + δ qγ1 + (1 − q)γ1 y¯ y + (1 − α) δ rγ1 + (1 − r)γ1 . γ

γ

For player 1 to be willing to randomize, we need g1 (E, α) = g1 (S, α), that is,

y y¯ γ1 − γ1 =

(1 − δ) . δ[α(p − q) + (1 − α)(q − r)]

(7.7.6)

We now investigate when there exists a value of α and feasible continuations y¯ solving (7.7.6). Let f (α, γ1 ) be the payoff to player 1 when player 2 puts α weight on E and (7.7.6) is satisﬁed: y¯

f (α, γ1 ) = (1 − δ)(3α − 1) −

(α(1 − p) + (1 − α)(1 − q))(1 − δ) y¯ + δγ1 . (α(p − q) + (1 − α)(q − r))

Self-generation suggests solving γ¯ (α) = f (α, γ¯ (α)), yielding γ¯ (α) = (3α − 1) −

(α(1 − p) + (1 − α)(1 − q)) . (α(p − q) + (1 − α)(q − r))

(7.7.7)

We need to know if there is a value of α ∈ [0, 1] for which γ¯ (α) is sufﬁciently y y¯ large that (7.7.6) can be satisﬁed with γ1 = γ¯ (α) for some α and γ1 ≥ 0. To simplify calculations, we ﬁrst consider p = q.21 In this case, the function γ¯ (α) is maximized at 3 (1 − q) α¯ = 1 − 3(q − r) with a value

3 γ¯ (α) ¯ =2−2

3(1 − q) . (q − r)

From (7.7.6), α is enforceable if γ¯ (α)(1 ¯ − α) ¯ ≥

(1 − δ) . δ(q − r)

(7.7.8)

Inequality (7.7.8) is satisﬁed for δ sufﬁciently close to 1, if γ¯ (α)(1 ¯ − α) ¯ > 0. The payoff γ¯ (α) ¯ is strictly positive if 3 + r < 4q,

(7.7.9)

and this inequality also implies α¯ ∈ (2/3, 1). Given q and r satisfying (7.7.9), let δ be a lower bound on δ so that (7.7.8) holds. 21. As we discuss in note 7 on page 238, assuming p = q is inconsistent with the representation of stage-game payoffs as expected ex post payoffs. We relax the assumption p = q at the end of the example.

7.8

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269

Anonymous Players

Suppose (7.7.9) holds and δ ∈ (δ, 1). Because γ¯ (α)(1 − α) is a continuous function of α, with γ¯ (0) < 0, there exists α(δ) such that γ¯ (α(δ))(1 − α(δ)) =

(1 − δ) . δ(q − r)

Hence, the set of payoffs {(0, 0), (γ¯ (α(δ)), γ¯ (α(δ)))} is self-generating for δ ∈ (δ, 1). The associated PPE is strongly symmetric and begins with each player randomizing with probability α(δ) on E, and continually playing this mixed action until the ﬁrst observation of y. After the ﬁrst observation of y, play switches to permanent S. Indeed, for sufﬁciently high δ, the symmetric set of payoffs described by the interval [0, γ¯ (α)] ¯ is self-generating: Every payoff in the interval [0, δ γ¯ (α)] ¯ can be decomposed by SS and some constant continuation in [0, γ¯ (α)]. ¯ The function f is increasing y y¯ y¯ in γ1 for ﬁxed α, as well as in α for ﬁxed γ1 . Moreover, consistent with γ1 ≥ 0 y¯ and recalling the role of (7.7.6) in the deﬁnition of f , f is minimized at (α, γ1 ) = (0, (1 − δ)/[δ(q − r)]) with a value (1 − δ)r/(q − r). Hence, every payoff in [(1 − δ)r/(q − r), γ¯ (α)] ¯ can be decomposed by some α and continuations in [0, γ¯ (α)]. ¯ 22 We now return to the case p > q. By continuity, for p sufﬁciently close to q, γ¯ (α) will be maximized at some α˜ ∈ (0, 1), with γ¯ (α) ˜ > 0. Hence for δ sufﬁciently close to 1, the set [0, γ¯ (α)] ˜ is self-generating.

7.8

Anonymous Players

In section 2.7, we argued that short-lived players can be interpreted as a continuum of small, anonymous, long-lived players when histories include only aggregate outcomes. Because a small and anonymous player, though long-lived, has no effect on the aggregate outcome and hence on future play, he should choose a myopic best response. As we discussed in remark 2.7.1, this interpretation opens a potentially troubling discontinuity: Equilibrium behavior with a large but ﬁnite number of small players may be very different under perfect monitoring than with small anonymous players. Under imperfect monitoring, this discontinuity disappears. Consider, for example, a version of the prisoners’dilemma with a single long-lived player 1 and a ﬁnite number N − 1 of long-lived players in the role of player 2. Player 1’s actions are perfectly monitored, whereas the actions of the other players are only imperfectly monitored. For each player i, i = 2, . . . , N, there are two signals ei and si , independently distributed according to 1 − ε, ai = E, ρi (ei | ai ) = ε, ai = S, where ε < 1/2. Player 1’s stage game payoff is the average of the payoff from the play with each player i ∈ {2, . . . , N}. Figure 7.8.1 gives the ex post payoffs from a single interaction as a function of player 1’s action E or S and the signal e and s generated 22. For some parameter values (p ≈ q and 13q − r > 12), the best strongly symmetric mixedstrategy proﬁle achieves a higher symmetric payoff than the asymmetric proﬁle of remark 7.7.2, which in turn achieves a higher symmetric payoff than any pure-strategy strongly symmetric PPE.

270

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Imperfect Public Monitoring

ei

si

E

E

2−ε 2−5ε 1−2ε , 1−2ε

3−5ε − (1+ε) 1−2ε , 1−2ε

E

2, 2

S

(1−ε) 3−3ε 1−2ε , − 1−2ε

3ε ε − 1−2ε , 1−2ε

S

3, −1

S −1, 3 0, 0

Figure 7.8.1 Ex post payoffs from a single interaction between player 1 and a player i ∈ {2, . . . , N} (left panel) as a function of player 1’s action E or S and the signal ei or si , and the ex ante payoffs (right panel), the payoffs in ﬁgure 7.2.1.

by player 2’s action, as well as the ex ante payoff (which agrees with our standard prisoners’ dilemma payoff matrix, ﬁgure 7.2.1). We consider a class of automata with two states and public correlation:23 Given a public signal y ∈ {E, S} × i≥2 {ei , si }, we deﬁne #(y) = |{i ≥ 2 : yi = si }|, that is, #(y) is the number of “shirk” signals in y (apart from player 1, who is perfectly monitored). The set of states is W = {wE , wS }, the initial state is w 0 = wE , the output function is fi (wE ) = E and fi (wS ) = S for i = 1, . . . , N, and the transition function τ is given by, where τ (w, y) is the probability of a transition to state wE , 1, if w = wE , y1 = E and #(y) ≤ κ, τ (w, y) = φ, if w = wE , y1 = E and #(y) > κ, 0, otherwise. Any deviation by player 1 (which is detected for sure) triggers immediate permanent shirking, and more than κ signals of si for the other players only randomly triggers permanent shirking. Consequently, whenever the incentive constraints for a player i, i = 2, . . . , N, are satisﬁed, so are player 1’s, and so we focus on player i. The analysis of this proﬁle is identical to that of the proﬁle in section 7.2.3, once we set p equal to the probability of the event that #(y) ≤ κ when no player deviates and q equal to the probability of that event when exactly one player deviates. Thus, p = Pr{#(y) ≤ κ | ai = E, i = 1, . . . , N} =

κ τ =0

(N − 1)! ε τ (1 − ε)N −1−τ τ !(N − 1 − τ )!

and q = Pr{#(y) ≤ κ | aN = S, ai = E, i = 1, . . . , N − 1} = (1 − ε) +ε

κ−1

τ =0 κ τ =0

(N − 2)! ε τ (1 − ε)N−2−τ τ !(N − 2 − τ )!

(N − 2)! ε τ (1 − ε)N −2−τ , τ !(N − 2 − τ )!

23. In sections 7.6.2 and 7.7.1, we saw that public correlation serves only to simplify the calculation of upper bounds on payoffs.

7.8

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271

Anonymous Players

where the ﬁrst sum in the expression for q equals 0 if κ = 0. Because all players play identically under the proﬁle, the payoff to player 1 under the proﬁle equals that of any player i, i = 2, . . . , N. If (7.2.16) is satisﬁed, the proﬁle describes a PPE, and the payoff in state wE is, from (7.2.17), V (wE ) = 2 −

1−p . (p − q)

(7.8.1)

Suppose we ﬁrst ﬁx N . Then, for sufﬁciently small ε, (7.2.16) is only satisﬁed for κ = 0 (if κ ≥ 1, limε→0 q = 1) and limε→0 V (wE ) = 2. In other words, irrespective of the number of players, for arbitrarily accurate monitoring all players essentially receive a payoff of 2 under this proﬁle. Suppose we now ﬁx ε > 0, and consider increasing N. Observe ﬁrst that if κ = 0, then for large N it is too easy to “fail the test,” that is, limN→∞ p = 0. From (7.8.1), we immediately get an upper bound less than 1. By appropriately increasing κ as N increases, one could hope to keep p not too small. However, although that is certainly possible, it turns out that irrespective of how κ is determined, p − q will go to 0. For ﬁxed κ and player i, we have p−q =

κ−1 τ =1

(N − 1) (N − 2)! −1 ε τ (1 − ε)N −1−τ (N − 1 − τ ) τ !(N − 2 − τ )! −

κ+1 τ =1

(N − 2)! ε τ (1 − ε)N−1−τ (τ − 1)!(N − 1 − τ )!

(N − 2)! ε κ (1 − ε)N −2−κ (1 − 2ε) = κ!(N − 2 − κ)! = Pr(player i is pivotal)(1 − 2ε). Observe that Pr(player i is pivotal) is the probability b(κ, N − 2, ε) that there are exactly κ successes under a binomial distribution with N − 2 draws. It is bounded above by maxk b(k, N − 2, ε), and therefore for ﬁxed ε, p − q → 0 as N → ∞. Consequently, for sufﬁciently large N , (7.2.16) fails and the only symmetric equilibrium (of the type considered here) for large N has players choosing S in every period (as predicted by the model with small anonymous players, see remark 2.7.1). Given the imperfection in monitoring, with a large population, even though there is a separate signal for each player, the chance that any single player will be pivotal in determining the transition to permanent shirking is small, and so each imperfectly monitored player can effectively ignore the future and myopically optimizes. We restricted attention to strongly symmetric PPE, but a similar result holds in general. We can thus view short-lived players as a continuum of small, anonymous, long-lived players, recognizing that this is an approximation of a world in which such players are relatively plentiful relative to the imperfection in the monitoring. A more complete discussion can be found in Al-Najjar and Smorodinsky (2001); Fudenberg, Levine, and Pesendorfer (1998); Levine and Pesendorfer (1995); Green (1980); and Sabourian (1990).

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8 Bounding Perfect Public Equilibrium Payoffs

The observation that the set of perfect public equilibrium payoffs E (δ) is the largest self-generating set does not provide a simple technique for characterizing the set. We now describe a technique that allows us to bound, and for large δ completely characterize, the set of PPE payoffs.1

8.1

Decomposing on Half-Spaces

It is helpful to begin with ﬁgure 8.1.1. We have seen in section 7.3 that every payoff v ∈ E (δ) is decomposed by some action proﬁle α (such as the pure-action proﬁle a in the ﬁgure) and continuation payoffs γ (y) ∈ E (δ). Recall from remark 7.3.1 that u(α) will often denote the vector of stage-game payoffs for long-lived players, a practice we follow in this chapter. To bound E (δ), we are clearly interested in the boundary points of E (δ) (unlike the v in the ﬁgure). Consider a boundary point v ∈ E (δ) decomposed by a non–stagegame Nash equilibrium action proﬁle (such as a in the ﬁgure). Moreover, for simplicity, suppose that v is in fact a boundary point of the convex hull of E (δ), coE (δ). Then, the continuations (some of which must differ from v ) lie in a convex set (coE (δ)) that can be separated from both v and u(a) by the supporting hyperplane to v on coE (δ). That is, the continuations lie in a half-space whose boundary is given by the supporting hyperplane. Because F † is the convex hull of F , a compact set, it is the intersection of the closed half-spaces containing F (Rockafellar 1970, corollary 11.5.1 or theorem 18.8). Now, for any direction λ ∈ Rn \ {0}, the smallest half-space containing F † is given by {v : λ · v ≤ maxα∈B λ · u(α)}. In other words, because E (δ) ⊂ F † , E (δ) is contained in the intersection over λ of the half-spaces {v : λ · v ≤ maxα∈B λ · u(α)}. This bound on E (δ) ignores decomposability constraints. The set of payoffs decomposable on a general set W (such as E (δ)) is complicated to describe (as we discuss just before proposition 7.3.4, even the weak property of monotonicity of E (δ) is not guaranteed). On the other hand, the set of payoffs decomposable on a half-space has a particularly simple dependence on δ, allowing us to describe the smallest half-space respecting the decomposability constraints independently of δ. 1. The essentials of the characterization are due to Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin (1994) and Fudenberg and Levine (1994), with a reﬁnement by Kandori and Matsushima (1998). Some similar ideas appear in Matsushima (1989).

273

274

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

E

Figure 8.1.1 The payoff v ∈ E (δ) is decomposable by a on E (δ). There are

three public signals, Y = {y1 , y2 , y3 }, and E[γ (y) | a] = γ (y )ρ(y | a). Note that u(a) ∈ E (δ), and so a is not a Nash equilibrium of the stage game.

Given a direction λ ∈ Rn and constant k ∈ R, H (λ, k) denotes the half-space {v ∈ λ · v ≤ k}. In ﬁgure 8.1.2, we have chosen a direction λ so that v is decomposable on the half-space H (λ, λ · v) using the equilibrium continuations from ﬁgure 8.1.1. In general, of course, when a payoff is decomposed on a half-space there is no guarantee that the continuations are equilibrium, or even feasible, continuations. Recall that B(W ; δ, α) is the set of payoffs that can be decomposed by α on W , when the discount factor is δ. For ﬁxed λ and α, let2 Rn :

k ∗ (α, λ, δ) = maxv λ · v subject to v ∈ B(H (λ, λ · v); δ, α).

(8.1.1)

The pair (v, γ ) illustrated in ﬁgure 8.1.2 does not solve this linear program for the indicated λ and α = a, because moving all quantities toward u(a) would increase λ · v while not losing enforceability. Intuitively, v’s in the interior of E (δ) cannot solve this problem. We will see in section 9.1, in the limit (as δ → 1), boundary points of E (δ) do solve this problem in many cases. The linear programming nature of (8.1.1) can be seen most clearly by noting that the constraint v ∈ B(H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) is equivalent to the existence of γ : Y → Rn satisfying vi = (1 − δ)ui (α) + δE[γi (y) | α],

∀i,

vi ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , α−i ) + δE[γi (y) | (ai , α−i )],

∀ai ∈ Ai , ∀i,

and λ · v ≥ λ · γ (y),

∀y ∈ Y.

2. As usual, if the constraint set is empty, the value is −∞. It is clear from the characterization of B (H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) given by (8.1.2)–(8.1.4) that both B (H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) is closed and {λ · v : v ∈ B (H (λ, λ · v); δ, α)} is bounded above, ensuring the maximum exists.

8.1

■

275

Decomposing on Half-Spaces

H (λ , λ ⋅ v )

E (δ )

u (a )

λ

γ ( y1 ) v

γ ( y2 ) E[γ ( y ) | a ] u (a′)

γ ( y3 )

Figure 8.1.2 Illustration of decomposability on half-spaces. The payoff

v ∈ E (δ) is decomposable with respect to a and the half space H (λ, λ · v).

By setting xi (y) = δ(γi (y)−vi )/(1−δ), we can characterize B(H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) independently of the discount factor δ, that is, v ∈ B(H (λ, λ · v); δ, α) if and only if there exists x : Y → Rn satisfying vi = ui (α) + E[xi (y) | α],

∀i

(8.1.2)

vi ≥ ui (ai , α−i ) + E[xi (y) | (ai , α−i )],

∀ai ∈ Ai , ∀i,

(8.1.3)

and 0 ≥ λ · x(y),

∀y ∈ Y.

(8.1.4)

We call x : Y → Rn the normalized continuations. If x satisﬁes (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) for some v, we say x enforces α, and if, in addition, (8.1.4) is satisﬁed for some λ, we say x enforces α in the direction λ. If x satisﬁes (8.1.2)–(8.1.4) with λ · x(y) = 0 for all y, we say x orthogonally enforces α (in the direction λ). Suppose λi > 0 for all i and α is orthogonally enforced by x. Then for each y, xi (y) cannot be the same sign for all i; if xi (y) > 0, so that i is “rewarded” after signal y, then there must be some other player j who is “punished,” xj (y) < 0. In other words, orthogonal enforceability typically involves a transfer of continuations from some players to other players, with λ determining the “transfer price.” The unnormalized continuations are given by γi (y) = vi + xi (y)(1 − δ)/δ,

∀y ∈ Y,

(8.1.5)

where v = u(α) + E[x | α]. If x enforces α in the direction λ, then the associated γ from (8.1.5) enforces α with respect to the hyperplane H (λ, λ · v). Recall that ej denotes the j th standard basis vector. A direction λ is a coordinate direction if λ = λi ei for some constant λi = 0 and some i. A direction λ is ij -pairwise if there are two players, i = j , such that λ = λi ei + λj ej , λi = 0, λj = 0; denote such a direction by λij .

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Lemma 1. k ∗ (α, λ, δ) is independent of δ, and so can be written as k ∗ (α, λ).

8.1.1 2. k ∗ (α, λ) ≤ λ · u(α), so that u(α) ∈ intH (λ, k ∗ (α, λ)); and 3. k ∗ (α, λ) = λ · u(α) if α is orthogonally enforced in the direction λ. Moreover, when ρ(y | α) > 0 for all y ∈ Y , this sufﬁcient condition is also necessary. 4. If, for all pairwise directions λij , α is orthogonally enforceable in the direction λij , then α is orthogonally enforceable in all noncoordinate directions.

Proof 1. Immediate from the equivalence of the constraint in (8.1.1) and (8.1.2)–(8.1.4).

2. Let v ∗ solve (8.1.1). Then, k ∗ (α, λ) = λ · v ∗ = λ · (u(α) + E[x ∗ (y) | α]), where x ∗ satisﬁes (8.1.2)–(8.1.4), so that in particular, λ · x ∗ (y) ≤ 0. 3. Sufﬁciency is immediate. For necessity, observe that if k ∗ (α, λ) = λ · u(α), then E[λ · x ∗ (y) | α] = 0, where x ∗ is an enforcing normalized continuation solving (8.1.2)–(8.1.4). Necessity then follows from (8.1.4) and ρ(y | α) > 0 for all y ∈ Y . 4. Consider ﬁrst a direction λ with four nonzero coordinates, {i, j, k, }. Let λij ≡ λi ei + λj ej be the pairwise direction reﬂecting the i − j coordinates, and λk the pairwise direction reﬂecting the k − coordinates. Let x ij and x k be the enforcing normalized continuations for the pairwise directions λij and λk . By assumption, λij · x ij = 0 and λk · x k = 0. Let x denote the normalized continuation, ij xm , if m = i, j , k , if m = k, , xm (y) = xm x ij , otherwise. m

Then, (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) are satisﬁed, and λ · x = (λij + λk ) · x = 0. This argument can clearly be extended to cover an even number of nonzero coordinates. Suppose now the direction λ has three nonzero coordinates, {i, j, k}. Now let ij λ = λi ei + 12 λj ej and λjk = 12 λj ej + λk ek . Let x ij and x jk be the enforcing normalized continuations for the pairwise directions λij and λjk . In this case, we let x denote the normalized continuation, ij xi , 1 (x ij + x jk ), j xm (y) = 2 jk j x , k ij xm ,

if m = i, if m = j , if m = k, otherwise.

Then, we again have (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) satisﬁed and λ · x = (λij + λjk ) · x = 0. For a general odd number of nonzero coordinates, we apply this argument for three nonzero coordinates, and the previous argument to the remaining even number of nonzero coordinates. ■

Intuitively, we would like to approximate E (δ) by the half-spaces H (λ, k ∗ (α, λ)). However, as is clear from ﬁgure 8.1.2, we need to choose α appropriately. In particular, we can only move v toward u(a) (and so include more of E (δ)) because u(a) is

8.1

■

Decomposing on Half-Spaces

277

separated from the half-space containing the enforcing continuations γ . The action proﬁle a does not yield an appropriate approximating half-space for the displayed choice of λ, because by lemma 8.1.1(2), the enforcing continuations need to lie in a lower half-space, excluding much of E (δ). Accordingly, for each direction, we use the action proﬁle that maximizes k ∗ (α, λ), that is, set k ∗ (λ) ≡ supα∈B k ∗ (α, λ) and H ∗ (λ) ≡ H (λ, k ∗ (λ)).3 We refer to H ∗ (λ) as the maximal half-space in the direction λ. The coordinate direction λ = −ej corresponds to minimizing player j ’s payoff, because −ej · v = −vj . The next lemma shows that any payoff proﬁle in the half-space H ∗ (−ej ) is weakly individually rational for player j . Note that vj is the minmax payoff of (2.7.1). Lemma For all j ,

k ∗ (−ej ) ≤ −vj = − minα∈B maxaj uj aj , α−j .

8.1.2

Proof For λ = −ej , constraint (8.1.4) becomes xj (y) ≥ 0 for all y ∈ Y . Constraint

(8.1.3) then implies vj ≥ uj (aj , α−j ) for all aj , and so vj ≥ maxaj uj (aj , α−j ). In other words, v ∈ B(H (−ej , −vj ); δ, α) implies vj ≥ maxaj uj (aj , α−j ). Then, k ∗ (−ej ) = supα∈B k ∗ (α, −ej ) = supα∈B maxv {−vj : v ∈ B(H (−ej , −vj ); δ, α)} ≤ − minα∈B maxaj uj (ai , α−i ) = −vj . ■

Proposition For all δ,

8.1.1

E (δ) ⊂ ∩λ H ∗ (λ) ≡ M ⊂ F ∗ .

Proof Suppose the ﬁrst inclusion fails. Then there exists a half-space H (λ, k ∗ (λ)) and a

point v ∈ E (δ) with λ · v > k ∗ (λ). Let v ∗ maximize λ · v over v ∈ E (δ). Because λ · v ≤ λ · v ∗ for all v ∈ E (δ), v ∗ is decomposable on H (λ, λ · v ∗ ), implying k ∗ (λ) ≥ λ · v ∗ , a contradiction. It is a standard result from convex analysis that the convex hull of a compact set is the intersection of the closed half-spaces containing the set (Rockafellar 1970, corollary 11.5.1 or theorem 18.8). The inclusion of M in F ∗ , the set of feasible and weakly individually rational payoffs, is then an immediate implication of lemmas 8.1.1 and 8.1.2, because k ∗ (λ) ≡ supα∈B k ∗ (α, λ) ≤ supα∈B λ · u(α). ■

Each half-space is convex and the arbitrary intersection of convex sets is convex, so M also bounds the convex hull of E (δ). The bound M is crude for small δ, because it is independent of δ. However, as we will see in section 9.1, provided M has non-empty interior, limδ→1 E (δ) = M . 3. As half-spaces are not compact, it is not obvious that k ∗ (α, λ) is upper semicontinuous in α. Note that k ∗ (λ) > −∞, and so H ∗ (λ) = ∅ for all λ: let v ∗ maximize λ · v over v ∈ E (δ). Because λ · v ≤ λ · v ∗ for all v ∈ E (δ), v ∗ is decomposable on H (λ, λ · v ∗ ).

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Remark Interpretation of k ∗ (λ) For a direction λ, we can interpret λ · u as the “average”

8.1.1 utility of all players in the direction λ. Given lemma 8.1.1, we can interpret k ∗ (λ) as a bound on the “average” utility consistent with providing each player appropriate incentives (and section 9.1 shows that this bound is typically achieved for patient players). If k ∗ (λ) = k ∗ (α, λ) for some α orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ, then it is costless to provide the appropriate incentives in aggregate, in the sense that λ · x(y) = 0 for all y (lemma 8.1.1). That is, it is possible to simultaneously provide incentives to all players by appropriately transferring continuations without lowering average utility below λ · u(α). On the other hand, if there is no α orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ for which k ∗ (λ) = k ∗ (α, λ), then it is costly to provide the appropriate incentives in aggregate, in the sense that λ · x(y) < 0 for some y. Moreover, if y has positive probability under α, this cost has an impact in that it is impossible to simultaneously provide incentives to all players without lowering average utility below λ · u(α). ◆

Remark Pure strategy PPE Recall that E p (δ) is the set of pure strategy PPE payoffs

8.1.2 (remark 7.3.3). The analysis in this section applies to pure strategy PPE. In particular, we immediately have the following pure strategy version of lemma 8.1.2 and proposition 8.1.1. Proposition Let k ∗p (λ) ≡ sup{k ∗ (α, λ) : αi is pure for i = 1, . . . , n} and H ∗p ≡ H (λ, k ∗p (λ)).

8.1.2 Then, k ∗p (−ej ) ≤ −vi

p

and, for all δ, E p (δ) ⊂ ∩λ H ∗p (λ) ≡ M p . ◆

8.2

The Inefﬁciency of Strongly Symmetric Equilibria

The bound in proposition 8.1.1 immediately implies the pervasive inefﬁciency of strongly symmetric equilibria in symmetric games with full-support public monitoring. Definition Suppose there are no short-lived players. The stage game is symmetric if all

8.2.1 players have the same action space and same ex post payoff function (Ai = Aj and u∗i = u∗j for all i, j ), and the distribution ρ over the public signal is unaffected by permutation of player indices. From (7.1.1), ex ante payoffs in a symmetric game are also appropriately symmetric. Recall from deﬁnition 7.1.2 that an equilibrium is strongly symmetric if after every public history, each player chooses the same action. In a strongly symmetric PPE, xi (y) = xj (y) for all y ∈ Y . For the remainder of this subsection, we restrict attention to such symmetric normalized continuations. Lemma 8.1.1 and proposition 8.1.1 hold under this restriction (E (δ) is now the set of strongly symmetric PPE payoffs). Because the continuations are symmetric, without loss of generality, we can restrict attention to directions 1 and −1, where 1 is an n-vector with 1 in each coordinate.

8.2

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279

Strongly Symmetric Equilibria

Let u¯ ≡ maxα1 u1 (α1 1) denote the maximum symmetric payoff. Proposition Suppose there are no short-lived players, the stage game is ﬁnite and symmetric,

8.2.1 ρ has full support, and u¯ is not a Nash equilibrium payoff of the ex ante stage game. The maximum strongly symmetric PPE payoff, v(δ), ¯ is bounded away from u, ¯ independently of δ (i.e., ∃ε > 0 such that ∀δ ∈ [0, 1), v(δ) ¯ + ε < u). ¯ The inefﬁciency of strongly symmetric equilibria should not be surprising: If u¯ is not a stage-game equilibrium payoff, for any α¯ satisfying u¯ = u(α), ¯ each player i needs an incentive to play α¯ i , which requires a lower continuation after some signal. But strong symmetry implies that every player must be punished at the same time, and full support that the punishment occurs on the equilibrium path, so inefﬁciency arises. A little more formally, suppose k ∗ (α¯ 1 1, 1) = nu¯ for some α¯ 1 . Inequality (8.1.4) and strong symmetry imply xi (y) ≤ 0 for all y. The deﬁnition of u¯ then implies E[xi (y) | α¯ 1 1] = 0. Full support of ρ ﬁnally implies xi (y) = 0 for all y, implying α¯ 1 is a best reply to α¯ 1 1, contradicting the hypothesis that u¯ is not a Nash equilibrium payoff of the ex ante stage game. The argument just given, though intuitive, relies on supα1 k ∗ (α1 1, 1) being attained by some α1 . The proof must deal with the general possibility that the supremum is not attained (see note 3 on page 277). Proof We now suppose the supremum in the deﬁnition of k ∗ is not achieved, and derive

¯ Because k ∗ (1) = supα1 k ∗ (α1 1, 1), for all ∈ N, a contradiction to k ∗ (1) = nu. ∗ there exists α1 such that k (α1 1, 1) ≥ nu¯ − n/. We write α = α1 1. Because A1 is ﬁnite, by extracting a subsequence if necessary, without loss of generality we can assume {α1 } is a convergent sequence with limit α1∞ . Let a1 be ∞ ) over a ∈ supp(α ∞ ). By the deﬁnition of u, ¯ an action minimizing u1 (a1 , α−1 1 1 ∞ ∞ ¯ For sufﬁciently large , supp(α1∞ ) ⊂ supp(α1 ), so u1 (a1 , α−1 ) ≤ u1 (α1 1) ≤ u. we can also assume a1 is in the support α1 . Finally, by extracting a subsequence ) ≤ u (a , α ∞ ) + 1/. and renumbering if necessary, u1 (a1 , α−1 1 1 −1 Because α1 (a1 ) > 0, u¯ −

1 1 ≤ k ∗ (α1 1, 1) = u1 (a1 , α−1 ) + E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 )], n

(8.2.1)

where x is the normalized enforcing continuation in the direction 1 (so that x1 (y) ≤ 0 for all y). Then, for all , −

2 ≤ E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 )] ≤ 0.

(8.2.2)

For ﬁxed , (8.1.3) is ) + E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 )] u1 (a1 , α−1 ≥ u1 (a1 , α−1 ) + E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 )],

∀a1 ∈ A1 .

(8.2.3)

)] = 0 and (using x (y) ≤ 0), Inequality (8.2.2) implies lim E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 1 for all , 2 ρ(y | (a1 , a−1 ))α−1 (a−1 ) ≤ 0. − ≤ x1 (y) a −1

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As ρ has full support (by hypothesis), and ρ ≡ miny,a {ρ(y | a)} > 0 (by the ﬁniteness of Y and A), we thus have for all and all a1 ∈ A1 , −

2 ≤ x1 (y) ρ(y | (a1 , a−1 ))α−1 (a−1 ) ≤ 0. ρ a −1

)] = 0 for all a ∈ A , and so taking → ∞ in Hence, lim E[x1 (y) | (a1 , α−1 1 1 (8.2.1) and (8.2.3) yields ∞ ∞ ) ≥ u1 (a1 , α−1 ), u¯ = u1 (a1 , α−1

∀a1 ∈ A1 .

Consequently, α1∞ 1 is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, and so u¯ is a Nash equilibrium payoff, contradiction. ■

8.3

Short-Lived Players

8.3.1 The Upper Bound on Payoffs The techniques of this chapter provide an alternative proof of proposition 2.7.2. Lemma For j = 1, . . . , n,

8.3.1

k ∗ (ej ) ≤ v¯j ≡ maxα∈B minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ).

Proof For λ = ej , constraint (8.1.4) becomes xj (y) ≤ 0 for all y ∈ Y . Constraints (8.1.2)

and (8.1.3) imply, for all aj ∈ supp(αj ), vj = uj (aj , α−j ) + E[xj (y) | (aj , α−j )], and so vj ≤ uj (aj , α−j ). Hence, k ∗ (ej ) = sup k ∗ (α, ej ) = sup max{vj : v ∈ B(H (ej , vj ); δ, α)} α∈B

≤ sup

α∈B

min

α∈B aj ∈supp(αj )

uj (aj , α−j ) = max

min

α∈B aj ∈supp(αj )

uj (aj , α−j ). ■

Note that in the absence of short-lived players, B = i (Ai ) and k ∗ (ej ) = maxα∈ i (Ai ) minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ) = maxα∈ i (Ai ) uj (α). Lemma 8.3.1, with proposition 8.1.1 (implying that every PPE equilibrium payoff for a long-lived player j is bounded above by k ∗ (ej )), implies proposition 2.7.2: Because E (δ) ⊂ H ∗ (ej ), in every PPE no long-run player can earn a payoff greater than v¯j . Moreover, in the presence of imperfect public monitoring, the bound v¯i may not be tight. It is straightforward to show for the example of section 7.6.2, that k ∗ (e1 ) = v ∗ < v¯1 , an instance of the next section’s result. It is worth emphasizing that with short-lived players, the case of one long-lived player is interesting and the analysis of this chapter (and the next) applies. In that case, of course, the only directions to be considered are e1 and −e1 .

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Short-Lived Players

8.3.2 Binding Moral Hazard From lemma 8.3.1, the presence of short-lived players constrains the set of longlived players’ payoffs that can be achieved in equilibrium. Moreover, as we saw in section 7.6.2, for the product-choice game with a short-lived player 2 and imperfect public monitoring, the imperfection in the monitoring necessarily further reduced the maximum equilibrium payoff that player 1 could receive. This phenomenon is not special to that example but arises more broadly and for reasons similar to those leading to the inefﬁciency of strongly symmetric equilibria (proposition 8.2.1). We provide a simple sufﬁcient condition implying that player i’s maximum equilibrium payoff for all δ is bounded away from v¯i , the upper bound from lemma 8.3.1. Definition Player i is subject to binding moral hazard if for all a−i , for all ai ,ai ,

8.3.1 suppρ(y | (ai , a−i )) = suppρ(y | (ai , a−i )), and for any α ∈ B satisfying ui (α) = v¯i , αi is not a best reply to α−i .

The ﬁrst condition implies there is no signal that unambiguously indicates that player i has deviated. The second condition then guarantees that player i’s incentive constraint due to moral hazard is binding. Fudenberg and Levine (1994) say a game with short-lived players is a moral-hazard mixing game if it has a product structure (see section 9.5) and all long-lived players are subject to binding moral hazard. Proposition Suppose a long-lived player i is subject to binding moral hazard, and A is ﬁnite.

8.3.1 Then, k ∗ (ei ) < v¯i . Consequently, there exists κ > 0 such that for all δ and all v ∈ E (δ), vi ≤ v¯i − κ.

Proof Though the result is intuitive, the proof must deal with the general possibility that

supα k ∗ (α, ei ) is not attained by any α (see note 3 on page 277). We assume here the supremum is attained; the proof for the more general case is a straightforward modiﬁcation of the proof of proposition 8.2.1. ¯ ei ) = v¯i for some α¯ ∈ B. Let ai minimize ui (ai , α¯ −i ) So, we suppose k ∗ (α, over ai ∈ supp(α¯ i ). Then, by the deﬁnition of v¯i , v¯i ≥ ui (ai , α¯ −i ). Because α¯ is enforced in the direction ei by some x, xi (y) ≤ 0 for all y and ¯ ei ) = ui (ai , α¯ −i ) + E[xi (y) | (ai , α¯ −i )] v¯i = k ∗ (α, ≤ ui (ai , α¯ −i ) ≤ v¯i .

Hence, xi (y) = 0 for all y ∈ suppρ(· | (ai , α¯ −i )). Because suppρ(· | (ai , α¯ −i )) is independent of ai ∈ Ai , α¯ i must be a best reply to α¯ −i , contradicting the hypothesis that player i is subject to binding moral hazard. ■

The inefﬁciency due to binding moral hazard arises for similar reasons to the inefﬁciency of strongly symmetric PPE (indeed, the proofs are very similar). In both cases, in the “target” action proﬁle α, ¯ player i’s action is not a best reply to α¯ −i , and achieving the target payoff requires orthogonal enforceability of the target proﬁle in the relevant direction, a contradiction. Remark Role of short-lived players In the absence of short-lived players, B = i (Ai ), 8.3.1 and v¯i = maxa∈A ui (a), so that player i can never be subject to binding moral

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

E

S

E

2, 2

−c, b

S

b, −c

0, 0

Figure 8.4.1 The prisoners’ dilemma from ﬁgure 2.5.1, where b > 2, c > 0, and 0 < b − c < 4.

hazard. If player i is subject to binding moral hazard, the payoff v¯i can only be achieved if player i is not playing a best reply to the behavior of the other players, and so incentives must be provided. But this involves a lower normalized continuation with positive probability, and so player i’s payoffs in any PPE are bounded away from v¯i . ◆

8.4

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

8.4.1 Bounds on Efficiency: Pure Actions Our ﬁrst application of these tools is to investigate the potential inefﬁciency of PPE in the repeated prisoners’ dilemma. We return to the prisoners’ dilemma from ﬁgure 2.5.1 (reproduced in ﬁgure 8.4.1) and the monitoring distribution (7.2.1), p, ρ(y¯ | a) = q, r,

if a = EE, if a = SE or ES, if a = SS,

where 0 < q < p < 1 and 0 < r < p. An indication of the potential inefﬁciency of PPE can be obtained by considering H ∗ (λ) for λi ≥ 0. From proposition 8.1.1, H ∗ (λ) is a bound on E (δ), and in particular, for all v ∈ E (δ), λ · v ≤ k ∗ (λ). In particular, for λˆ = (1, 1), if k ∗ (λˆ ) < 4, then all PPE are bounded away from the maximum aggregate payoff. Moreover, if k ∗ (λˆ ) < 2(b + c)/(2 + c), then all PPE are necessarily inefﬁcient, and are bounded away from efﬁciency for all δ (see ﬁgure 8.4.2). We ﬁrst consider the pure action proﬁle ES. Equations (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) reduce to ¯ ≥ x1 (y) + x1 (y)

c q −r

x2 (y) ¯ ≤ x2 (y) +

b−2 . p−q

and

Setting x1 (y) ¯ = c/[2(q − r)] and x1 (y) = −c/[2(q − r)], with x2 (y) = −λ1 x1 (y)/λ2 for y = y, y, ¯ yields normalized continuations that orthogonally enforce ES. Hence, k ∗ (ES, λ) = λ2 b − λ1 c. Symmetrically, we also have k ∗ (SE, λ) = λ1 b − λ2 c.

8.4

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283

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

( −c, b) 2(b + c)

(2,2)

( 2 + c)

(0,0) 2( b + c )

( 2 + c)

( b, − c )

Figure 8.4.2 The set of feasible payoffs for the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 8.4.1. If v1 + v2 < 2(b + c)/(2 + c), then v is in the shaded region and is necessarily inefﬁcient.

For EE, (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) imply xi (y) ¯ − xi (y) ≥ (b − 2)/(p − q), and consequently, the proﬁle cannot be orthogonally enforced. Then, ¯ + (1 − p)x(y)) λ · (u(EE) + E[x | EE]) = (λ1 + λ2 )2 + λ · (px(y) ¯ − (1 − p)(x(y) ¯ − x(y))) = (λ1 + λ2 )2 + λ · (x(y) ¯ − x(y)) ≤ (λ1 + λ2 )2 − (1 − p)λ · (x(y) (1 − p)(b − 2) ≤ (λ1 + λ2 ) 2 − (p − q) ¯ ≡ (λ1 + λ2 )v.

(8.4.1)

Setting xi (y) ¯ = 0 and xi (y) = −(b − 2)/(p − q) for i = 1, 2 enforces EE and ¯ achieves the upper bound just calculated. Hence, k ∗ (EE, λ) = (λ1 + λ2 )v. We are now in a position to study the inefﬁciency of pure-strategy PPE. From proposition 8.1.2, for all pure strategy PPE payoffs v, λ · v ≤ k ∗p (λ) = max{k ∗ (EE, λ), k ∗ (ES, λ), k ∗ (SE, λ)} (we omit the action proﬁle SS, because k ∗ (SS, λ) = 0 and this is clearly less than one of the other three expressions for λi > 0). Because k ∗ (ES, λ) ≥ k ∗ (SE, λ) if and only if λ2 ≥ λ1 , we restrict our analysis to λ2 ≥ λ1 and the comparison of k ∗ (ES, λ) with k ∗ (EE, λ) (with symmetry covering the other case). If b−c ≥ v, ¯ 2

(8.4.2)

then for all λ2 ≥ λ1 , k ∗ (ES, λ) ≥ k ∗ (EE, λ), and all pure strategy PPE payoffs must fall into that part of the shaded region below the line connecting (−c, b) and (b, −c), in ﬁgure 8.4.2.

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

(v , v )

(2,2)

( − c, b )

λ′

(0,0) (b,−c) Figure 8.4.3 A bounding set for E p (δ) when (8.4.2) does not hold. Every

pure strategy PPE payoff vector must fall into the shaded region.

On the other hand, if (8.4.2) does not hold, then k ∗ (ES, λˆ ) < k ∗ (EE, λˆ ) for some ˆ Because k ∗ (ES, λ) > k ∗ (EE, λ) for λ1 close to 0, there is a direction λ such that λ. k ∗ (ES, λ ) = k ∗ (EE, λ ), and so all pure strategy PPE must fall into the shaded region in ﬁgure 8.4.3. Clearly, independently of (8.4.2), pure strategy PPE payoffs are bounded away from the Pareto frontier and so are necessarily inefﬁcient. The reason for the failure is intuitive: Note ﬁrst that efﬁciency requires EE be played. With only two signals and a symmetric monitoring structure, it is impossible to distinguish between a deviation to S by player 1 from that of player 2, leading to a failure of orthogonal enforceability. Hence when providing incentives when the target action proﬁle is EE, the continuations are necessarily inefﬁcient. The pure strategy folk theorems for repeated games with public monitoring exclude this example (as they must) by assuming there are sufﬁcient signals to distinguish between deviations of different players. We illustrate this in section 8.4.4. 8.4.2 Bounds on Efficiency: Mixed Actions We now consider mixed-action proﬁles and, for tractability, focus on the direction λˆ = (1, 1). Just like EE, many (but not necessarily all) mixed proﬁles fail to be orthogonally enforceable. The critical feature is whether action choices by 1 can be distinguished from those by 2. Given a mixed action αj for player j , player i’s choice of S implies ρ(y¯ | Sαj ) = αj q + (1 − αj )r, and i’s choice of E implies ρ(y¯ | Eαj ) = αj p + (1 − αj )q. Thus, if ρ(y¯ | Sαj ) < ρ(y¯ | Eαj ), theny is a signal that player i had played S. Suppose that for some αi , we also have ρ(y¯ | Sαi ) > ρ(y¯ | Eαi ) (this is only possible if q < r). Then, y is not also a signal that j had played S, and so it should be possible at α = (αi , αj ) to separately provide incentives for i and j (similar to the discussion for ES).

8.4

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285

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

Let A be the set of mixed-action proﬁles α that have full support and under which the signals distinguish between the players, that is, ρ(y¯ | Sαi ) < ρ(y¯ | Eαi )

and

ρ(y¯ | Sαj ) > ρ(y¯ | Eαj ),

i = j.

(8.4.3)

The action proﬁles in A are asymmetric: The asymmetry in the interpretation of signals, captured by (8.4.3), requires asymmetry in the underlying behavior. The set A is nonempty if and only if q < r. We now argue that some (but not all) α ∈ A can be orthogonally enforced in the direction λˆ . Because α has full support, (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) imply the equations i, j = 1, 2, j = i, ¯ − xi (y)) αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c = [ρ(y¯ | Eαj ) − ρ(y¯ | Sαj )](xi (y) ¯ − xi (y)). = [αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r)](xi (y)

(8.4.4)

The left side is necessarily positive, so the right side must also be positive. Orthogonality implies that xi (y) and xj (y) are either both 0 or of opposite sign. When (8.4.3) holds, it is also possible to choose the normalized continuations so that the sign of ¯ − xi (y) is the reverse of [ρ(y¯ | Eαj ) − ρ(y¯ | Sαj )] for both players. xi (y) Orthogonal enforceability in the direction λˆ requires more than a sign reversal, because it requires x2 (y) = −x1 (y), or α1 (b − 2) + (1 − α1 )c α2 (b − 2) + (1 − α2 )c =− . α1 (p − q) + (1 − α1 )(q − r) α2 (p − q) + (1 − α2 )(q − r)

(8.4.5)

Let g(αi ) be the reciprocal of the term on the left side, that is, g(αi ) =

αi (p − q) + (1 − αi )(q − r) . αi (b − 2) + (1 − αi )c

(8.4.6)

From (8.4.3), q < r, and so g(0) < 0 and g(1) > 0. Therefore there is some value of αi , say αˆ i , for which g(αˆ i ) = 0. Because the denominator is always positive, and the numerator is afﬁne in αi , there is a function h(αi ), h(αˆ i ) = αˆ i , such that for a range of values of αi containing αˆ i , g(h(αi )) = −g(αi ). Hence, (8.4.5) holds for all α ∈ A ∗ ≡ {α ∈ A : h(αi ) = αj }, and so for such α, k ∗ (α, λˆ ) = u1 (α) + u2 (α). Therefore if A = ∅, A ∗ = ∅ and ˆ ≥ sup u1 (α) + u2 (α). k ∗ (λ) α∈A ∗

Section 8.4.5 illustrates the use of this lower bound. On the other hand, we trivially have the upper bound, k ∗ (α, λˆ ) ≤ u1 (α) + u2 (α). For later reference, we deﬁne κ ∗ = sup u1 (α) + u2 (α), α∈A

where (as usual) κ ∗ = −∞ if A is empty.

(8.4.7)

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Example Suppose b = 3 and c = 2, and p − q = r − q > 0. It is easy to calculate that

8.4.1 A = (α1 , α2 ) : 12 − α1 12 − α2 < 0 , αˆ i = 12 , h(αi ) =

4 − 5αi , 5 − 4αi

and A ∗ = {α ∈ A : αj = h(αi )}. While (1/2, 1/2) ∈ A , limαi →1/2 h(αi ) = 1/2, and we have sup u1 (α) + u2 (α) = u1 12 , 12 + u2 12 , 12 = 32 . α∈A ∗

Note that if (8.4.2) holds, then the lower bound on k ∗ (λˆ ) from asymmetric mixing in A ∗ is larger than the bound from any pure action proﬁle. ●

Finally, we consider mixed-action proﬁles not in A . In this case, signals do not distinguish between players, and so intuitively it is impossible to separately provide incentives. More formally, it is not possible to orthogonally enforce such proﬁles (this ¯ − xi (y), is immediate from the discussion following (8.4.4)). Letting xi ≡ xi (y) where j = i, we have {ui (α) + E[xi | α]} = {ui (α) + αi [αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r)]xi i

i

+ (αj q + (1 − αj )r)xi + xi (y)}. From (8.4.4), we thus have for full support α, {ui (α) + αi [αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c] k ∗ (α, λˆ ) = i

+ (αj q + (1 − αj )r)xi + xi (y)} {αj b + (αj q + (1 − αj )r)xi + xi (y)} = i

≤ {αj b − (1 − αj q − (1 − αj )r)xi }, i

¯ − xi } ≤ − i xi . Because where we used the inequality i xi (y) = i {xi (y) ¯ = 0 is a feasible choice for the normalized continuations and (8.4.4) then xi (y) determines xi (y), the inequality is an equality, and we have (1 − αj q − (1 − αj )r)(αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c) ∗ ˆ k (α, λ) = αj b − . αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r) j

ˆ Observe that the expression is separable in α1 and α2 , so that maximizing k ∗ (α, λ) over α ∈ A is equivalent to maximizing the expression, αj b −

(1 − αj q − (1 − αj )r)(αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c) , αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r)

which yields the maximum strongly symmetric payoff. For the case b = 3 and c = 1, this expression reduces to the function γ¯ given in (7.7.7). Let v SSE denote the maximum strongly symmetric payoff,

8.4

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287

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

v SSE = sup αj b − αj

(1 − αj q − (1 − αj )r)(αj (b − 2) + (1 − αj )c) . αj (p − q) + (1 − αj )(q − r)

ˆ = 2v¯ ≤ Evaluating the expression at αj = 1 yields v¯ of (8.4.1), and so k ∗ (EE, λ) SSE SSE > v. ¯ 2v . Section 7.7.2 discusses an example where v Summarizing the foregoing discussion, if v is a PPE payoff, then4 v1 + v2 ≤ max b − c, κ ∗ , 2v SSE ,

(8.4.8)

where κ ∗ is deﬁned in (8.4.7).

8.4.3 A Characterization with Two Signals We return to the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 7.2.1 (i.e., b = 3 and c = 1) with imperfect public monitoring. We now characterize M for the special case p − q = q − r of the monitoring distribution (7.2.1). As we saw in section 8.4.2, mixed actions can play a role in the determination of M . For the special case under study, however, the myopic incentives to shirk are independent of the actions of the other player. Moreover, because p − q = q − r, the impact on the distribution of signals is also independent of the actions of the other player. In terms of the analysis of the previous section, the expression determining v SSE is afﬁne in αi , so the best strongly symmetric equilibrium payoff is achieved in pure actions. In addition, A is empty because q > r. Consequently, we can restrict attention to pure-action proﬁles. Each player’s minmax value is 0, so lemma 8.1.2 implies that k ∗ (−ei ) ≤ 0. Moreover, because (S, S) is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, (0, 0) satisﬁes the 2. constraint in (8.1.1) for α = SS and λ. Consequently, k ∗ (−ei ) = 0, and so M ⊂ R+ By a similar argument, the maximal half-spaces in directions with λ1 , λ2 ≤ 0 impose no further restriction on M . We now consider directions λ with λ2 > 0 > λ1 . If −λ1 ≤ λ2 , the action proﬁle ES can be orthogonally enforced and so, by the third claim in lemma 8.1.1, k ∗ (λ) = λ · (−1, 3) = 3λ2 − λ1 . To obtain the normalized continuations satisfying (8.1.2)– (8.1.4), we ﬁrst solve (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) for player 1 as an equality with E[x1 | ES] = 0, giving ¯ = x1 (y)

(1 − q) , (q − r)

and

x1 (y) =

−q . (q − r)

We then set ¯ = x2 (y)

−λ1 x1 (y) ¯ λ2

and x2 (y) =

−λ1 x1 (y). λ2

4. We have not discussed asymmetric proﬁles in which only one player is randomizing. Observe, however, κ ∗ also bounds any such proﬁles in the closure of A . For any such proﬁles not in the closure of A , 2v SSE is still the relevant bound.

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By construction, λ · x(y) = 0. Finally,

−λ1 (p − q)[x2 (y) ¯ − x2 (y)] = (p − q) λ2

¯ − x1 (y)] [x1 (y)

¯ − x1 (y)] = 1, ≤ (q − r)[x1 (y) (using p − q = q − r and −λ1 ≤ λ2 ), and so (8.1.3) holds for player 2. On the other hand, if −λ1 > λ2 , the action proﬁle ES cannot be orthogonally enforced. In this case, k ∗ (ES, λ) is the maximum value of λ1 v1 + λ2 v2 for v with the property that there exists x satisfying ¯ + (1 − q)x1 (y) ≥ 0 + rx1 (y) ¯ + (1 − r)x1 (y), v1 = −1 + qx1 (y) ¯ + (1 − q)x2 (y) ≥ 2 + px2 (y) ¯ + (1 − p)x2 (y), v2 = 3 + qx2 (y) and 0 ≥ λ1 x1 (y) + λ2 x2 (y) for y = y, ¯ y. The ﬁrst two constraints imply, because λ1 < 0 and using p − q = q − r, ¯ + λ2 x2 (y) ¯ ≤ λ1 x1 (y) + λ2 x2 (y) + (λ1 + λ2 )/(q − r), λ1 x1 (y) so the last constraint implies k ∗ (ES, λ) ≤ −λ1 + 3λ2 + q(λ1 + λ2 )/(q − r).

(8.4.9)

The continuations x1 (y) = x2 (y) = 0 and x1 (y) ¯ = x2 (y) ¯ = 1/(q − r) satisfy the constraints, so the inequality in (8.4.9) is an equality. Because q/(q − r) > 1, k ∗ (ES, λ) < 0 for large |λ1 |, so k ∗ (ES, λ) < k ∗ (SS, λ) = 0. Consequently,5 k ∗ (λ) = max{k ∗ (ES, λ), k ∗ (SS, λ), k ∗ (EE, λ), k ∗ (SE, λ)} 3λ − λ1 , if 0 < −λ1 ≤ λ2 , 2 3λ − λ + q(λ + λ )/(q − r), if 0 < λ < −λ and 2 1 1 2 2 1 = 3λ − λ + q(λ 2 1 1 + λ2 )/(q − r) > 0, 0, otherwise. Hence, the upper left boundary of M is given by the line through (0, 0) perpendicular to the normal λ satisfying 3λ2 − λ1 + q(λ1 + λ2 )/(q − r) = 0, that is, given by x2 = [(4q − 3r)/r]x1 = [(2p − r)/r]x1 (the last equality uses p − q = q − r). Symmetrically, for 0 < −λ2 ≤ λ1 we also have 3λ − λ2 , if 0 < −λ2 ≤ λ1 , 1 3λ − λ + q(λ + λ )/(q − r), if 0 < λ < −λ and 1 2 2 1 1 2 k ∗ (λ) = 3λ − λ + q(λ 1 2 1 + λ2 )/(q − r) > 0, 0, otherwise. 5. It is immediate that k ∗ (EE, λ) ≤ 2(λ1 + λ2 ) < 0 and k ∗ (SE, λ) ≤ 3λ1 − λ2 < 0.

8.4

■

289

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

u(E, S ) u(E, E ) slope = (2 p − r )

slope = r

r

(2 p − r )

u (S , S ) u(S , E ) Figure 8.4.4 The bounding set M when 2p − q ≤ 1.

It remains to solve for k ∗ (λ) when λ1 , λ2 ≥ 0. We apply the analysis from section 8.4.1. Condition (8.4.2) in the current setting reduces to 2p − q ≤ 1, and the maximal half-spaces can then always be obtained by using either ES or SE, that is, k ∗ (λ) = max{3λ2 − λ1 , 3λ1 − λ2 } for all λ. The bounding set M is illustrated in ﬁgure 8.4.4.6 On the other hand, if 2p − q > 1, then some maximal half-spaces (in particular, those with λ1 and λ2 close) require EE. For example, k ∗ (λ) = 2[2 − (1 − p)/(p − q)], when λ1 = λ2 = 1. This possibility is illustrated in ﬁgure 8.4.5. Observe that the symmetric upper bound we obtained here, 2 − (1 − p)/(p − q) on a player’s payoff, agrees with our earlier calculation yielding (7.7.1) in section 7.7.1, as it should. Moreover, for p and q satisfying 2p − q < 1, the best strongly symmetric PPE payoff is strictly smaller than the best symmetric PPE payoff (which is 1) for δ large (applying theorem 9.1.1). 8.4.4 Efficiency with Three Signals We now consider a modiﬁcation of the monitoring structure that does not preclude efﬁciency and (as an implication of theorem 9.1.1), yields all feasible and strictly individually rational payoffs as PPE payoffs for sufﬁciently large δ. ¯ whose distribution is The new monitoring structure has three signals y, y , and y, given by p , if a = EE, p, if a = EE, q , if a = SE, 1 ρ(y¯ | a) = q, if a = SE or ES, ρ(y | a) = q 2 , if a = ES, r, if a = SS, r , if a = SS, with y receiving the complementary probability. We proceed as for the previous monitoring distribution to calculate M . As before, 2 . Consider now directions λ for λ with λ1 , λ2 ≤ 0, we obtain the restriction M ⊂ R+ 6. Proposition 9.1.1 implies that any v ∈ M is a PPE payoff for sufﬁciently high δ. It is worth observing that maxv∈M v2 exceeds 2 − r/(q − r), the maximum payoff player 2 could receive in any PPE in which only ES and SE are played (a similar comment applies to player 1, of course). This is most easily seen by considering the normal λ determining the upper left boundary of M . For such a direction, it is immediate that maxv∈W λ · v = 3λ2 − λ1 + q(λ1 − λ2 )/(q − r) < 0, where W is the set deﬁned in remark 7.7.2. This is an illustration of the general phenomenon that the option of using inefﬁcient actions, such as SS, relaxes incentive constraints.

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u(E, S ) slope = (2 p − r )

u( E, E ) slope = r

r

(2 p − r )

u (S , S ) u(S , E ) 2 − (1 − p )

( p − q)

Figure 8.4.5 The bounding set M when 2p − q > 1.

with λ2 > 0 > λ1 . If −λ1 ≤ λ2 , ES can be orthogonally enforced by setting xi (y ) = xi (y) for i = 1, 2, and arguing as in the previous case. Hence, for such a direction λ, k ∗ (λ) = 3λ2 − λ1 . Consider now directions λ with −λ1 ≥ λ2 (recall that it was not possible to orthogonally enforce ES in these directions under the public monitoring described by (7.2.1)). As above, k ∗ (λ) = 3λ2 − λ1 if ES can be orthogonally enforced. The orthogonal enforceability of ES requires, from equations (8.1.2) and (8.1.3), ¯ + q2 x1 (y ) + (1 − q − q2 )x1 (y) −1 = −1 + qx1 (y)

(8.4.10)

≥ rx1 (y) ¯ + r x1 (y ) + (1 − r − r )x1 (y) and ¯ + q2 x2 (y ) + (1 − q − q2 )x2 (y) 3 = 3 + qx2 (y) ≥ 2 + px2 (y) ¯ + p x2 (y ) + (1 − p − p )x2 (y).

(8.4.11) (8.4.12)

Using λ · x = 0 to eliminate x2 from (8.4.11) and (8.4.12), and writing the inequalities as equalities ((8.4.11) is an implication of (8.4.10) and λ · x = 0), we obtain the matrix equation 0 x1 (y) ¯ q q2 1 − q − q2 r r 1 − r − r x1 (y ) = −1 . p p 1 − p − p −λ2 /λ1 x1 (y) Hence if the matrix of stacked distributions is invertible, then ES is orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ, so k ∗ (EE, λ) = 3λ2 − λ1 . A similar argument shows that k ∗ (SE, λ) = 3λ1 − λ2 . For λ1 , λ2 ≥ 0, both ES and SE can be orthogonally enforced by setting xi (y ) = xi (y) for i = 1, 2 and arguing as in the previous case. Hence, for such λ, k ∗ (ES, λ) = 3λ2 − λ1 and k ∗ (SE, λ) = 3λ1 − λ2 . Finally, we show that invertibility of another matrix of stacked distributions is sufﬁcient for EE to be orthogonally enforced in any direction λ with λ1 , λ2 ≥ 0.

8.4

■

291

The Prisoners’ Dilemma

The orthogonal enforceability of EE requires, from equations (8.1.2) and (8.1.3), for i = 1, 2, ¯ + p xi (y ) + (1 − p − p )xi (y) 2 = 2 + pxi (y) ¯ + qi xi (y ) + (1 − q − qi )xi (y). ≥ 3 + qxi (y)

(8.4.13)

Using λ · x = 0 as above to eliminate x2 from (8.4.13) and writing the inequalities for i = 1, 2 as equalities, we obtain the matrix equation

p q q

p q1 q2

0 x1 (y) 1 − p − p ¯ 1 − q − q1 x1 (y ) = −1 . 1 − q − q2 x1 (y) λ2 /λ1

Hence if the matrix of stacked distributions is invertible, then EE is orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ, and so k ∗ (EE, λ) = (λ1 + λ2 )2. Thus, if 3λ1 ≤ λ2 , 3λ2 − λ1 , ∗ k (λ) = (λ1 + λ2 )2, if λ2 /3 < λ1 < 3λ2 , 3λ − λ , if λ ≥ 3λ , 1

2

1

2

and so M = F ∗ (note that the slope of the line connecting u(E, S) and u(E, E) is −1/3). The requirement that the matrix of stacked distributions be invertible is an example of the property of pairwise full rank, which we explore in section 9.2. 8.4.5 Efficient Asymmetry This section presents an example, based on Kandori and Obara (2003), in which players exploit the asymmetric mixed actions in A (described in section 8.4.2) to attach asymmetric continuations to the public signals. Paradoxically, if the monitoring technology is sufﬁciently noisy, the set of PPE payoffs for patient players is very close to F ∗ .7 We return to the prisoners’ dilemma of ﬁgure 8.4.1 with public monitoring distribution (7.2.1). Fix a closed set C ⊂ intF ∗ , and 1 > r > q ∈ (0, 1). We will show that for sufﬁciently small ε > 0, if q < p < q + ε, then C ⊂ M . From proposition 9.1.2, the set of PPE payoffs then contains C for sufﬁciently large δ. This is not a folk theorem result, because we ﬁrst ﬁx the set C , then choose a monitoring distribution, and then allow δ to approach 1. We ﬁrst dispense with some preliminaries. Suppose p, r satisfy p, r > q and c r −q > p−q b−2

(8.4.14)

(for ﬁxed q and r, (8.4.14) is always satisﬁed for p sufﬁciently close to q). It is straightforward to check that SS is orthogonally enforced in all directions, SE is orthogonally 7. This result is not inconsistent with section 7.4, because the increased noisiness does not come in the form of a less informative signal in the sense of Blackwell.

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Bounding Equilibrium Payoffs

enforced in all directions λ such that λ1 > 0 and λ1 ≥ λ2 , and ES is orthogonally enforced in all directions λ such that λ2 > 0 and λ2 ≥ λ1 . Consequently, M contains D ≡ co{(0, 0), (b, −c), (−c, b)}. Let λ1 be the direction orthogonal to the line connecting (2, 2) and (b, −c), and λ2 the direction orthogonal to the line connecting (2, 2) and (−c, b). Let ∗ ≡ {λ : λi > 0, λ12 /λ11 ≤ λ2 /λ1 ≤ λ22 /λ21 } be the set (cone) of directions “between” λ1 and λ2 . It is immediate that for any direction not in ∗ , k ∗ (λ) = k ∗ (a, λ) for some a ∈ {SS, SE, ES}. Consequently, if M is larger than D , it is because k ∗ (λ) > maxa∈{SS,SE,ES} k ∗ (a, λ) for λ ∈ ∗ . It remains to argue that for p sufﬁciently close to q, M contains any closed set in the interior of the convex hull of (2, 2) and D . This is an implication of the following lemma. Lemma There exists ε > 0 such that if q < p < q + ε, then for all directions λ ∈ ∗

8.4.1 and all η > 0, there is an asymmetric mixed proﬁle α η-close to EE that can be orthogonally enforced in the direction λ. Proof Fix a direction λ ∈ ∗ . We begin by observing that, as for the direction λˆ in

section 8.4.2, orthogonal enforceability in the direction λ requires, from (8.4.4) and (8.4.6), λ2 g(α2 ) = −λ1 g(α1 ).

(8.4.15)

Just as in section 8.4.2, this equation implies a relationship between α1 and α2 for α orthogonally enforceable in the direction λ. In particular, if for α1 = 1, the implied value of α2 from (8.4.15) is a probability, then (1, α2 ) is orthogonally enforced in the direction λ. Setting α1 = 1 in (8.4.15) and solving for α2 gives α2 =

λ2 (r − q)(b − 2) − λ1 (p − q)c . λ2 (p − q − (q − r))(b − 2) + λ1 (p − q)(b − 2 − c)

Because λ2 /λ1 is bounded for λ ∈ ∗ , there exists ε > 0 such that 1 − η < α2 < 1 if p < q + ε, which is what we were required to prove. ■

9 The Folk Theorem with Imperfect Public Monitoring

The previous chapters showed that intertemporal incentives can be constructed even when there is imperfect monitoring. In particular, nonmyopically optimal behavior can be supported as equilibrium behavior by appropriately specifying continuation play, so that a deviation by a player adversely changes the probability distribution over continuation values. This chapter shows that the set M , from proposition 8.1.1, completely describes the set of limit PPE payoffs, and explores conditions under which M is appropriately “large.” As we saw in section 8.4, the nature of the dependence of the signal distribution on actions determines the size of M and so plays a crucial role in obtaining nearly efﬁcient payoffs as PPE payoffs. This analysis leads to several folk theorems. Folk theorems can (and have) given rise to a variety of interpretations. We refer to section 3.2.1 for a discussion.

9.1

Characterizing the Limit Set of PPE Payoffs

In section 8.1, we introduced the notion of decomposability with respect to half-spaces and deﬁned the maximal half-space in the direction λ, H ∗ (λ). Recall that the maximal half-space H ∗ (λ) is the largest H (λ, k) half-space with the property that a boundary point of the half-space can be decomposed with respect to that half-space. In section 8.1, we showed that the set of PPE payoffs is contained in M , the intersection of all the maximal half-spaces, ∩λ H ∗ (λ). In this section, we show that for large δ, the set of PPE payoffs is typically well approximated by M . Proposition Suppose the stage game satisﬁes assumption 7.1.1. If M ⊂ Rn has nonempty

9.1.1 interior (and so dimension n), then for all v ∈ intM , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ), that is, there is a PPE with value v. Hence,1 lim E (δ) = M .

δ→1

This proposition is an implication of proposition 9.1.2, stated independently for ease of reference. Definition A subset W ⊂ Rn is smooth if it is closed and has nonempty interior with respect

9.1.1 to Rn and the boundary of W is a C 2 -submanifold of Rn . 1. More precisely, the Hausdorff distance between E (δ) and M converges to 0 as δ → 1.

293

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The Folk Theorem

The set M is a compact convex set. If it has nonempty interior, it can be approximated arbitrarily closely by a smooth convex set W contained in its interior.2 Moreover, for any ﬁxed v ∈ intM , W can be chosen to contain v. Proposition 9.1.1 is proven once we have shown W ⊂ E (δ) for sufﬁciently large δ. Proposition Suppose the stage game satisﬁes assumption 7.1.1. Suppose W is a smooth convex

9.1.2 subset of the interior of M . There exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), W ⊂ B(W ; δ) ⊂ E (δ).

There are two key insights behind this result. The ﬁrst we have already seen: The quantity k ∗ (λ) measures the maximum “average” utility of all the players in the direction λ consistent with providing each player with appropriate incentives (remark 8.1.1). The second is that because W is smooth, locally its boundary is sufﬁciently ﬂat that the unnormalized continuations γ required to enforce any action proﬁle can be kept inside W by making players patient (thereby making the variation in continuations arbitrarily small, see (8.1.5)). Proof From corollary 7.3.3, it is enough to show that W is locally self-generating, that

is, for all v ∈ W , there exists δv < 1 and an open set Uv such that v ∈ Uv ∩ W ⊂ B(W ; δv ). We begin with a payoff vector v ∈ intW . Because v is interior, there exists an open set Uv s.t. v ∈ Uv ⊂ Uv ⊂ intW . Let α˜ be a Nash equilibrium of the stage game. Consequently, there exists a discount factor δv such that for any v ∈ Uv , there is a payoff v ∈ W such that v = (1 − δv )u(α) ˜ + δv v .

(9.1.1)

Because α˜ is an equilibrium of the stage game, the pair (α, ˜ γ ) decomposes v with respect to W , where γ (y) = v for all y ∈ Y . The interior of W presents a potentially misleading picture of the situation. The argument just presented decomposes payoffs using the myopic Nash equilibrium of the stage game. Consequently, no intertemporal incentives were needed. However, it would be incorrect to conclude from this that nontrivial intertemporal incentives are only required for a negligible set of payoffs. The value of δv satisfying (9.1.1) approaches 1 as v approaches bdW , the boundary of W . Local decomposability on the boundary of W , which requires intertemporal incentives, guarantees that δ can be chosen strictly less than 1. The strategy implicitly constructed through an appeal to corollary 7.3.3 uses intertemporal incentives for payoffs in a neighborhood of the boundary. We turn to the heart of the argument, decomposability of points on the boundary of W , bdW . We now suppress the dependence of the set U and the discount factor δ on v. Fix a point v on the boundary of W . Because W is smooth and convex, there is a unique supporting hyperplane to W at v, with normal λ. Let k = λ · v. Because W ⊂ intH ∗ (λ), k < k ∗ (λ). Moreover, for all v˜ ∈ W , λ · v˜ ≤ k < k ∗ (λ). 2. More precisely, for any ε, there exists a smooth convex W ⊂ int M whose Hausdorff distance from M is less than ε.

9.1

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295

The Limit Set of PPE Payoffs

H (λ , k ) u (a ) H (λ , k − ε (1 − δ ) / δ )

λ

Bη (v)

v E[γ | a]

Figure 9.1.1 The hyperspaces H (λ, k) and H (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ).

Let α ∈ B be an action proﬁle that decomposes a point v ∗ ∈ bdH ∗ (λ) on so that k < λ · v ∗ = k ∗ (λ).3 Let x ∗ denote the associated normalized continuations satisfying (8.1.2)–(8.1.4) for α and v ∗ . In general, all we know is that λ · x ∗ (y) ≤ 0, and it will be useful to decompose points using normalized continuations with a strictly negative value under λ. Accordingly, let v satisfy k = λ · v < λ · v < λ · v ∗ , and let x (y) = x ∗ (y) − v ∗ + v . Because x is x ∗ translated by a constant independent of y, v is decomposed by (α, γ ), where γ = v + x (1 − δ)/δ. Moreover, λ · x = λ · x ∗ (y) − k ∗ (λ) + λ · v = λ · x ∗ (y) − ε ≤ −ε for all y, where ε = k ∗ (λ) − λ · v > 0. Any v˜ ∈ W can be decomposed by (α, γ˜ ), where H ∗ (λ),

˜ γ˜ (y) = v˜ + [x (y) − v + v]

(1 − δ) , δ

∀y ∈ Y.

(9.1.2)

Because λ · v˜ ≤ k < λ · v , λ · γ˜ (y) ≤ k − ε(1 − δ)/δ (see ﬁgure 9.1.1). For v˜ = v, the decomposing continuation is denoted by γ . It remains to show that there exists η > 0 and δ < 1 such that for all v˜ ∈ Bη (v) ∩ W , we have γ˜ (y) ∈ W , for all y. Now, |γ˜ (y) − Eγ | ≤ |γ˜ (y) − E γ˜ | + |E γ˜ − Eγ | 1 (1 − δ) + |v˜ − v| . = |x (y) − Ex | δ δ In other words, by making η small, and δ sufﬁciently close to 1, we can make γ˜ (y) arbitrarily close to E[γ | α]. From lemma 8.1.1(2), for δ sufﬁciently close to 1, E[γ | α] ∈ W . However, at the same time, E[γ | α] approaches the boundary 3. This assumes there exists an α for which k ∗ (λ) = k ∗ (α, λ). If there is no such α (see note 3 on page 277), the remainder of the proof in the text continues to hold with α and v ∗ chosen such that k ∗ (α, λ) is sufﬁciently close to k ∗ (λ), which we can do because k ∗ (λ) = supα∈B k ∗ (α, λ).

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bd H (λ , k ) H (λ , k − ε (1 − δ ) / δ )

Bη (v) v

γ

u (a )

λ′

Figure 9.1.2 Figure 9.1.1 with the new coordinate system. The vector

λ is λ in the new system. Note that Bη (v) is now an ellipse. The disc centered at γ¯ is the ball of radius β mentioned in the proof.

of W . There is therefore no immediate guarantee that points close to E[γ | α] will also be in W . However, as we now argue, the guarantee is an implication of the smoothness of the boundary of W . By construction, all continuations are no closer than ε(1 − δ)/δ to the supporting hyperplane of W at v, that is, the boundary of H (λ, k). We now change bases to {fi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n}, where {fi : 1 ≤ i ≤ n − 1} is a set of spanning vectors for bdH (λ, k) and fn = u(α) − v. This change of basis allows us to apply a Pythagorean identity. Let F : Rn → Rn denote the linear change-of-basis map, and | · |1 denote the norm on Rn that makes F an isometry, that is, for all x, x ∈ Rn , |x − x |1 = |F x − F x |, where |x| is the Euclidean norm. The two norms | · |1 and | · | are equivalent, that is, there exist two constants κ1 , κ2 > 0, so that for all x ∈ Rn , κ1 |x| ≤ |x|1 ≤ κ2 |x|. The image of the boundary of W under F is still a C 2 -submanifold. Hence, for some β , the ball of | · |1 -radius β centered at a point γ¯ on the fn -axis is contained in W and contains v (this is the reason for the new basis—see ﬁgure 9.1.2). Let γ δ denote the convex combination of the vectors v and γ¯ satisfying δ γ ∈ bdH (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ), so that |γ δ − v| = ε(1 − δ)/δ (this is well deﬁned 4 For any point for δ close to 1). Then, |γ¯ − γ δ |1 ≤ β − κ1 ε(1 − δ)/(δ|λ|). √ δ γˆ ∈ bdH (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ) satisfying |γˆ − γ |1 = κ 1 − δ (where κ > 0 is to be determined), we have,5 |γ¯ − γˆ |21 = |γ¯ − γ δ |21 + |γˆ − γ δ |21 ≤ (β − κ1 ε(1 − δ)/(δ|λ|))2 + κ 2 (1 − δ) " ! κ1 ε κ1 ε(1 − δ) 2 2 −κ . = (β ) − (1 − δ) 2β − δ|λ| δ|λ| 4. Letting w = γ δ − v, we have by the deﬁnition of γ δ , ε(1 − δ)/δ = λ · w. Setting η = λ · w/λ · λ, we have |w|1 ≥ κ1 |w| ≥ κ1 η|λ| = κ1 ε(1 − δ)/(δ|λ|). Finally, |γ¯ − γ δ |1 = |γ¯ − v|1 − |w|1 . 5. The ﬁrst equality, a Pythagorean identity, follows from F (γ¯ − γ δ ) · F (γ − γ δ ) = 0.

9.1

■

297

The Limit Set of PPE Payoffs

H (λ , k − ε (1 − δ ) / δ )

bd H (λ , k )

Bκ

1−δ

(γ δ )

γδ v

Bβ ′ (γ )

λ′ γ

Figure 9.1.3 A “zoom-in” of ﬁgure 9.1.2 including the critical set √ {γ˜ : |γ˜ − γ δ |1 < κ 1 − δ} ∩ H (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ) ⊂ W .

There exists a value for κ and a bound δ , such that for all δ > δ , the term in square brackets is strictly positive,6 and so √ γ˜ : |γ˜ − γ δ |1 < κ 1 − δ ∩ H (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ) ⊂ W .

(9.1.3)

This is illustrated in ﬁgure 9.1.3. Note that if W had empty interior, (9.1.3) must fail. From (9.1.2), we already know that γ˜ (y) ∈ H (λ, k − ε(1 − δ)/δ). Now, |γ˜ (y) − γ δ |1 ≤ |γ˜ (y) − Eγ |1 + |Eγ − v|1 + |γ δ − v|1 (1 − δ) 1 + |v˜ − v|κ2 ≤ |x (y) − Ex |κ2 δ δ (1 − δ) (1 − δ) + εκ2 . + |Ex − v + v|1 δ δ There exists κ and δ such that, for δ > δ , the above is bounded above by κ (1 − δ) + 2κ2 |v˜ − v|. √ Choose δ > max{δ , δ } so that 2κ (1 − δ) < κ 1 − δ (this inequality is √ clearly satisﬁed for δ sufﬁciently close to 1). Finally, let η < (κ/4κ2 ) 1 − δ. Then, for all v˜ ∈ Bη (v), the implied γ˜ satisfy √ |γ˜ (y) − γ δ |1 < κ 1 − δ, and so, from (9.1.3), v is locally decomposed, completing the proof. ■

γδ

6. As we will see soon, we need the radius of the ball centered at to be of order strictly greater than O(1 − δ) so that γ˜√will, for large δ, be in the ball. At the same time, if the ball had radius strictly greater than O( 1 − δ), then we could not ensure |γ¯ − γ |1 < β for large δ.

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Remark Pure strategy PPE The above analysis also applies to the case where long-lived

9.1.1 players are restricted to pure strategies. Recalling the notation of remarks 7.3.3 and 8.1.2, we have the following result. Proposition Suppose the game satisﬁes assumption 7.1.1. Suppose M p has nonempty interior,

9.1.3 and W is a smooth convex subset of the interior of M p . Then, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), W ⊂ B p (W ; δ) ⊂ E p (δ). Hence, for all v ∈ intM p , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E p (δ).

Proof The argument is almost identical to that of the proof of proposition 9.1.2, because

every payoff in W can be decomposed using a pure action proﬁle. This is obvious for points on the boundary of W , and for interior points if the stage game has a pure strategy Nash equilibrium. If the stage game does not have a pure strategy Nash equilibrium, decompose points in the interior with respect to some pure action proﬁle and then argue as for the boundary points. ■

◆

9.2

The Rank Conditions and a Public Monitoring Folk Theorem

When all players are long-lived and M has full dimension, from proposition 9.1.1, a folk theorem for games with imperfect public monitoring holds if M = F ∗ . From lemma 8.1.1(3), this would occur if various pure action proﬁles (such as efﬁcient proﬁles) are orthogonally enforced. Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin’s (1994) rank conditions deliver the requisite orthogonal enforceability. We assume action spaces are ﬁnite for the rest of this chapter. If an action proﬁle α is to be enforceable, and it is not an equilibrium of the stage game, then deviations must lead to different expected continuations. That is, the distribution over signals should be different if a player deviates. Asufﬁcient condition is that the distribution over signals induced by α be different from the distribution induced by any proﬁle (αi , α−i ) with αi = αi . This is clearly implied by the following. Definition Suppose A is ﬁnite. The proﬁle α has individual full rank for player i if the

9.2.1 |Ai | × |Y | matrix Ri (α−i ) with elements [Ri (α−i )]ai y ≡ ρ(y | ai , α−i ) has full row rank (i.e., the collection of probability distributions {ρ(· | ai , α−i ) : ai ∈ Ai } is linearly independent). If this holds for all players i, then α has individual full rank. Individual full rank requires |Y | ≥ maxi |Ai |, and ensures that the signals generated by any (possibly mixed) action αi are statistically distinguishable from those of any other mixture αi . Because both αi and αi are convex combinations of pure actions, it would sufﬁce that each ρ(y | α) is a unique convex combination of the distributions in {ρ(y | ai , α−i )}ai ∈Ai (such a condition is discussed in Kandori and Matsushima 1998).

9.2

■

299

Public Monitoring Folk Theorem

If an action proﬁle α has individual full rank, then for arbitrary v, the equations obtained from (8.1.2) and imposing equality in (8.1.3), vi = ui (ai , α−i ) + E[xi (y) | (ai , α−i )],

∀i, ∀ai ∈ Ai

(9.2.1)

can be solved for enforcing normalized continuations x. Writing equation (9.2.1) in matrix form as, for each i, Ri (α−i )xi = [(vi − ui (ai , α−i ))ai ∈Ai ], the coefﬁcient matrix Ri (α−i ) has full row rank, so the equation can be solved for xi (Gale 1960, theorem 2.5). In other words, we choose x so that each player has no incentive to deviate from α. Although each player also has no strict incentive to play α (a necessary property when α is mixed), there are many situations in which strict incentives can be given (see proposition 9.2.2). Without further assumptions, there is no guarantee the enforcing x enforces α in any direction. For example, in the prisoners’ dilemma example of section 8.4.3, α = EE has individual full rank for both players and is enforced by any x satisfying ¯ − xi (y) ≥ 1/(p − q). However, any x satisfying λ · x(y) ¯ > 0 > λ · x(y) fails xi (y) to enforce α in the direction λ. Moreover, if 0 = λ · E[x(y) | α], then necessarily λ · x(y) ¯ > 0 > λ · x(y). Therefore, α = EE cannot be orthogonally enforced in any direction (as we saw in section 8.4.3). The coordinate directions, λ = ei and −ei for some i, impose the least restriction on the continuations, in that xj is unconstrained for j = i. At the same time, λ · x(y) = 0 implies xi (y) = 0, for all y. In other words, only proﬁles in which player i is playing a static (or myopic) best reply to α−i can be orthogonally enforced in the directions −ei or ei . On the other hand, if all players are playing a static best reply (i.e., α is a static Nash equilibrium), xi (y) = 0 for all i and y trivially satisﬁes (8.1.2)– (8.1.4), with vi = ui (α) and (8.1.4) holding with equality for any λ. This discussion implies the following lemma. Lemma 1. If α has individual full rank, then it is enforceable.

9.2.1 2. If α is a static Nash equilibrium, then it can be orthogonally enforced in any direction. 3. If and only if α is enforceable and αi maximizes ui (ai , α−i ) over Ai , then α is orthogonally enforceable in the directions ei and −ei . We turn now to the general conditions that allow orthogonal enforceability in noncoordinate directions. From lemma 8.1.1(4), it will be enough to obtain orthogonal enforceability in all pairwise directions, λij . We begin with a strengthening of the individual full rank condition. Definition Suppose A is ﬁnite. The proﬁle α has pairwise full rank for players i and j if the

9.2.2 (|Ai | + |Aj |) × |Y | matrix ! Rij (α) = has rank |Ai | + |Aj | − 1.

"

Ri (α−i ) Rj (α−j )

300

Chapter 9

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The Folk Theorem

Note that |Ai | + |Aj | − 1 is the maximum feasible rank for Rij (α) because αi Ri (α−i ) = [ρ(y | α)y∈Y ] = αj Rj (α−j ). Moreover, pairwise full rank for i and j implies individual full rank for i and j . Lemma If α has pairwise full rank for players i and j and individual full rank, then it is

9.2.2 orthogonally enforceable in any ij -pairwise direction. Proof Fix an ij -pairwise direction λij and choose v satisfying λij · v = λij · u(α) (a necesij

sary condition for orthogonal enforceability from lemma 8.1.1). Because λj = 0, ij

ij

the constraint λij · x(y) = 0 for all y can be written as xj (y) = −λi xi (y)/λj for all y ∈ Y . Imposing this equality, the equations obtained from (8.1.2) and imposing equality in (8.1.3) for i and j can be written as

(vi − ui (ai , α−i ))ai ∈Ai ij λj Rij (α)xi = − ij {vj − uj (aj , α−j )} λi

.

(9.2.2)

aj ∈Aj

Because αi Ri (α−i ) = αj Rj (α−j ) and Rij (α) has rank |Ai | + |Aj | − 1, this system can be solved for x if (Gale 1960, theorem 2.4) ij

αi [(vi − ui (ai , α−i ))ai ∈Ai ] = −

λj

ij

λi

αj [(vj − uj (aj , α−j ))aj ∈Aj ].

(9.2.3)

ij

The left side equals vi − ui (α), and the right side equals − ·v = · u(α). (9.2.3) is implied by Finally, individual full rank for k = i, j implies λij

λj

ij

λi

(vj − uj (α)), so

λij

Rk (α−k )xk = [(vk − uk (ak , α−k ))ak ∈Ak ], can be solved for xk . ■

Recall from proposition 8.1.1 that ∩λ H ∗ (λ) ⊂ F ∗ ⊂ F † . Corollary Suppose there are no short-lived players and all the pure action proﬁles yielding

9.2.1 the extreme points of F † , the set of feasible payoffs, have pairwise full rank for all pairs of players. Then, if n denotes the set of noncoordinate directions, F † ⊂ ∩λ∈ n H ∗ (λ). Proof Because F † is convex, for any noncoordinate direction λ, there is an extreme

point u(a λ ) of F † such that λ · v ≤ λ · u(a λ ) for all v ∈ F † . The extreme points are orthogonally enforceable in all noncoordinate directions (lemmas 8.1.1 and 9.2.2), so k ∗ (λ) = λ · u(a λ ) ≥ λ · v for all v ∈ F † , that is, F † ⊂ H ∗ (λ). ■

Because F † is the intersection of the closed half-spaces with normals in n , the inclusion in corollary 9.2.1 can be strengthened to equality.

9.2

■

Public Monitoring Folk Theorem

301

The characterization of M is completed by considering coordinate directions. Pairwise full rank implies individual full rank, for all i, so we have k ∗ (ei ) = maxa ui (a), and ei does not further restrict the intersection.7 The coordinate directions −ei can impose new restrictions, despite being in the closure of the set of noncoordinate directions, n , because different constraints are involved: If player i is not best ij responding to α−i , then as λj → 0 (so that λij approaches an i-coordinate direction), the normalized continuations for player j can become arbitrarily large in magnitude ij ij (because xj (y) = −λi xi (y)/λj ). Enforceability in the coordinate directions implies the normalized continuations used in all directions can be taken from a bounded set. Proposition The public monitoring folk theorem Suppose there are no short-lived players, A

9.2.1 is ﬁnite, F † ⊂ Rn has nonempty interior, and all the pure action proﬁles yielding the extreme points of F † , the set of feasible payoffs, have pairwise full rank for all pairs of players. 1. If α˜ is an inefﬁcient Nash equilibrium, then for all v ∈ int{v ∈ F † : vi ≥ ˜ for all i}, there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ). ui (α) 2. If v = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is inefﬁcient and each player’s minmax proﬁle αˆ i has individual full rank, then, for all v ∈ intF ∗ , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ). Proof 1. Because α˜ is a Nash equilibrium, it is orthogonally enforced in all directions,

˜ −ei ) = −ui (α). ˜ Consequently, for any v satisfying and so k ∗ (−ei ) ≥ k ∗ (α, ˜ for all i, we have −vi ≤ −ui (α) ˜ ≤ k ∗ (−ei ), and so v ∈ H ∗ (−ei ). vi ≥ ui (α) † n Because F ⊂ R has nonempty interior, it has full dimension, and the inefﬁciency of u(α) ˜ implies the same for M , and the result follows from proposition 9.1.1. 2. Each player’s minmax proﬁle αˆ i has individual full rank, so from lemma 9.2.1, for all i, k ∗ (−ei ) = −vi , and so M = F ∗ . The inefﬁciency of v implies the full dimensionality of M , and the result again follows from proposition 9.1.1. ■

The conditions given in proposition 9.2.1 are stronger than necessary. Consider ﬁrst the assumption that all pure-action proﬁles yielding the extreme points of F † have pairwise full rank for all players. Many games of interest fail such a condition. In particular, in symmetric games (deﬁnition 8.2.1) such as the oligopoly game of Green and Porter (1984), the distribution over public signals depends only on the number of players choosing different actions, not which players. Consequently, any proﬁle in which all players choose the same action cannot have pairwise full rank: All proﬁles where a single player deviates to the same action induce the same distribution over signals. However, because k ∗ (λ) = supα k ∗ (α, λ), it would clearly be enough to have a dense set of actions within F † , each of which has pairwise full rank. (See section 8.4.5 for an illustration.) Perhaps surprisingly, this seemingly very strong condition is an implication of the existence for each pair of players of just one proﬁle with pairwise full rank for that pair (Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin 1994, lemma 6.2). Similarly, the assumption that each players’ minmax proﬁle has individual full rank can be replaced 7. As we saw in lemma 8.3.1, and return to section 9.3, this is not true in the presence of short-lived players.

302

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

by the assumption that all pure strategy proﬁles have individual full rank (Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin 1994, lemma 6.3). Remark Identifiability and informativeness It is worth emphasizing that the conditions in

9.2.1 proposition 9.2.1 concern the statistical identiﬁability of deviations and make no mention of the informativeness of the signals. Pairwise full rank of a for players i and j asserts simply that the matrix Rij (a) has an invertible square submatrix with |Ai | × |Aj | − 1 rows; there is no bound on how close to singular the matrix can be. For example, consider a sequence of monitoring distributions {ρ } , with all a having pairwise full rank under each ρ and with ρ (y | a) → 1/|Y |, the uniform distribution. In the limit, the public monitoring distribution is uniform on Y for all a, and under that monitoring distribution, all PPE are trivial. On the other hand, for each , proposition 9.2.1 holds. However, the relevant bound on δ becomes increasingly severe (i.e., the bound converges to 1 as → ∞): Because the determinant of any full row rank submatrix of Rij in (9.2.2) converges to 0, the normalized continuations become arbitrarily large (as → ∞) and so in the proof of proposition 9.1.2, the necessary bound on δ to ensure the unnormalized continuations γ are in the appropriate set becomes increasingly severe. ◆ The equilibria implicitly constructed in proposition 9.2.1 are weak: All players are indifferent over all actions. However, for a pure proﬁle a, observe that (8.1.2) and (8.1.3) are implied by, for all i, vi = ui (a) + E[xi (y) | a] = ui (ai , a−i ) + E[xi (y) | (ai , a−i )] − 1,

∀ai ∈ Ai , ai = ai .

(9.2.4)

As with (9.2.1), if a has individual full rank, (9.2.4) can be solved for x. A similar modiﬁcation to (9.2.2) yields, when a has pairwise full rank, continuations with strict incentives. This then gives us the following strengthening of proposition 9.2.1. Let E s (δ) be the set of strict PPE payoffs. Proposition The public monitoring folk theorem in strict PPE Suppose there are no short-lived

9.2.2 players, A is ﬁnite, and ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y ∈ Y and a ∈ A. Suppose F † ⊂ Rn has nonempty interior and all the pure-action proﬁles yielding the extreme points of F † have pairwise full rank for all pairs of players. If each player’s pure-action p p minmax proﬁle aˆ i has individual full rank and v p = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is inefﬁcient, then lim E s (δ) = F ∗p . δ→1

Proof Because strict PPE equilibria are necessarily in pure strategies, we begin, as in

proposition 9.1.3, with a smooth convex set W ⊂ intM p . We argue that W ⊂ E s (δ) for sufﬁciently large δ (the argument is then completed as before). Moreover, observe that if we have local decomposability using continuations that imply strict incentives, then the resulting equilibrium will be strict (corollary 7.1.1). Note ﬁrst that for the case of a point on the boundary of W , the relevant part of the proof of proposition 9.1.2 carries through (with the new deﬁnitions), with the normalized continuations x ∗ chosen so that (9.2.4) holds (this is possible because each pure

9.3

■

Perfect Monitoring Characterizations

303

action proﬁle has individual full rank). Turning to points in the interior of W , if the stage game has a strict Nash equilibrium, then the obvious decomposition of (9.1.1) will give strict incentives, and the argument is completed. If, on the other hand, the stage game does not have a strict Nash equilibrium, we then decompose the point in the interior with respect to some pure-action proﬁle and then argue as for boundary points. ■

9.3

Perfect Monitoring Characterizations

9.3.1 The Folk Theorem with Long-Lived Players Proposition 9.2.1 also implies the mixed-action minmax folk theorem for perfect monitoring repeated games with unobservable randomization. The condition that F † have nonempty interior is called the full-dimensionality condition and is stronger than the assumption of pure-action player-speciﬁc punishments of proposition 3.4.1. Proposition The perfect monitoring folk theorem Suppose there are no short-lived players, A

9.3.1 is ﬁnite, F † has nonempty interior, and v = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is inefﬁcient. For every v ∈ intF ∗ , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgameperfect equilibrium of the repeated game with perfect monitoring with value v. p Moreover, if vi > vi for all i, v is a pure strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium payoff. Proof For perfect-monitoring games, Y = A and ρ(a | a) = 1 if a = a and 0 otherwise.

Hence, every pure action proﬁle has pairwise full rank for all pairs of players, and every action proﬁle has individual full rank.8 The ﬁrst claim then follows from proposition 9.2.1. The second claim follows from lemma 8.1.1(4) and proposition 9.1.3. ■

9.3.2 Long-Lived and Short-Lived Players We can also now easily characterize the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs of the perfect monitoring game with many patient long-lived players and one or more short-lived players. Recall from section 3.6 that for such games, F † denotes the payoffs in the convex hull of {(u1 (α), . . . , un (α)) ∈ Rn : α ∈ B}. Even with this change, corollary 9.2.1 does not hold in the presence of short-lived players, because some of the extreme points of F † may involve randomization by a long-lived player (see example 3.6.1). However, under perfect monitoring, all action proﬁles have pairwise full rank for all pairs of long-lived players: Lemma Suppose A is ﬁnite and there is perfect monitoring (i.e., Y = A and ρ(a | a) = 1

9.3.1 if a = a and 0 otherwise). Then, all action proﬁles have pairwise full rank for all pairs of long-lived players. 8. Indeed, under perfect monitoring, all action proﬁles have pairwise full rank (lemma 9.3.1), but we need only the weaker statement here.

304

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

Proof Fix a mixed proﬁle α, and consider the matrix Rij (α). Every column of this matrix

corresponds to an action proﬁle a and has no, one, or two, nonzero entries: 1. if the action proﬁle a satisﬁes α(a) > 0, then the entries corresponding to the ai and aj rows are α−i (a−i ) and α−j (a−j ) respectively, with every other entry 0; 2. if a satisﬁes α−k (a−k ) > 0 and αk (ak ) = 0 (k = i or j ), then the entry corresponding to the ak -row is α−k (a−k ), with every other entry 0; and 3. if a satisﬁes αi (ai ) = 0 and αj (aj ) = 0, or α−ij (a−ij ) = 0, then every entry is 0. Deleting one row corresponding to an action taken with positive probability by player i, say, ai , yields a (|Ai | + |Aj | − 1) × |A| matrix, R . We claim R has full row rank. Observe that for any a−i ∈ supp(α−i ), the column in R corresponding to ai a−i has exactly one nonzero term (corresponding to aj ). Moreover, every column of R corresponding to a satisfying α−j (a−j ) > 0 and αj (aj ) = 0 also has exactly one nonzero term. Hence for any β ∈ R|Ai |+|Aj |−1 with βR = 0, every entry corresponding to an action for player j equals 0. But this implies β = 0. ■

We now proceed as in the proof of corollary 9.2.1. For any pairwise direction λij , let α maximize λij · u(α) over α ∈ extF † . Then, k ∗ (λij ) = λij · u(α ), and lemmas 9.2.2 and 8.1.1 imply ∩λ∈ n H ∗ (λ) = F † . We now consider the coordinate directions, ej and −ej . Unlike the case of only long-lived players, the direction ej does further restrict the intersection. From lemma 8.3.1 we have for long-lived player j , k ∗ (ej ) ≤ v¯j ≡ maxα∈B minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ). We now argue that we have equality. Fix α ∈ B, and set, for i = 1, . . . , n, vi = minai ∈supp(αi ) ui (ai , α−i ). Let x be the normalized continuations given by xi (ai , a−i ) =

vi − ui (ai , α−i ),

if αi (ai ) > 0,

−2 maxα |ui (α)|,

if αi (ai ) = 0.

Then, for all j = 1, . . . , n, the normalized continuations x, with v, satisfy (8.1.2)– (8.1.4). So, k ∗ (α, ej ) ≥ vj = minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ), and therefore k ∗ (ej ) = supα∈B k ∗ (α, ej ) ≥ supα∈B minaj ∈supp(αj ) uj (aj , α−j ). Finally, we need to argue that k ∗ (−ej ) = −vj . From lemma 8.1.2, k ∗ (−ej ) ≤ j j −vj . We cannot apply lemma 9.2.1, because αˆ j need not be a best reply to αˆ −j , the proﬁle minmaxing j . Fix a long-lived player j and for i = 1, . . . , n, set vi = j maxai ∈Ai ui (ai , αˆ −i ). Let x be the normalized continuations given by, for all a ∈ A,

9.4

■

305

Enforceability and Identiﬁability j

xi (a) = vi − ui (ai , αˆ −i ). Then, the normalized continuations x, with v, satisfy (8.1.2)–(8.1.4). So, k ∗ (αˆ j , −ej ) = −ej · v = − max uj (aj , αˆ −j ), j

aj ∈Aj

and therefore k ∗ (−ej ) = supα∈B k ∗ (α, −ej ) ≥ k ∗ (αˆ j , −ej ) = −vj . Summarizing this discussion, we have the following characterization. Proposition Suppose A is ﬁnite and F † has nonempty interior. For every v ∈ intF ∗ satisfying

9.3.2 vi < v¯i for i = 1, . . . , n, there exists δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated game with perfect monitoring with value v. Because intertemporal incentives need be provided for long-lived players only, it is sufﬁcient that their actions be perfectly monitored. In particular, the foregoing analysis applies if the long-lived players’action spaces are ﬁnite, and the signal structure is given by Y = ni=1 Ai × Y , for some ﬁnite Y , and ρ((a1 , . . . , an , y ) | a) = 0 if for some i = 1, . . . , n, ai = ai . As suggested by the development of the folk theorem for long-lived players in section 3.5, there is scope for weakening the requirement of a nonempty interior.

9.4

Enforceability and Identiﬁability

Individual full rank, which requires |Y | > |Ai |, is violated in some important games. For example, in repeated adverse selection, discussed in section 11.2, the inequality is necessarily reversed. Nonetheless, strongly efﬁcient action proﬁles can still be enforced (lemma 9.4.1)—though not necessarily orthogonally enforced (for example, EE in the prisoners’ dilemma of section 8.4.3). The presence of short-lived players constrains strong efﬁciency in a natural manner: α ∈ B is constrained strongly efﬁcient if, for all α ∈ B satisfying ui (α) < ui (α ) for some i = 1, . . . , n, there is some = 1, . . . , n, for which u (α) > u (α ). In the absence of short-lived players, the notions of constrained strongly efﬁcient and strongly efﬁcient coincide. The enforceability of constrained strongly efﬁcient actions is an implication of the assumption that player i’s ex ante payoff is the expected value of his ex post payoffs (see (7.1.1)), which only depend on the realized signal and his own action. Intuitively, enforceability of a proﬁle α fails if for some player i, there is another action αi such that α and (αi , α−i ) induce the same distribution over signals with (αi , α−i ) yielding higher stage-game payoffs. But the form of ex ante payoffs in (7.1.1) implies that the other players are then indifferent between α and (αi , α−i ), and so α is not constrained strongly efﬁcient.

306

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

Lemma Suppose ui is given by (7.1.1) for some u∗i , i = 1, . . . , n. Any constrained strongly

9.4.1 efﬁcient proﬁle is enforceable in some direction. Proof If α is constrained strongly efﬁcient, then there is a vector λ ∈ Rn , with λi > 0 for

all i, such that α ∈ argmaxα∈B λ · u(α). For all i ≤ n, let Mi = maxy,ai u∗i (y, ai ) and set

xi (y) ≡

λj u∗j (y, αj )/λi − (n − 1)Mi ,

i = 1, . . . , n.

j =1,...,n, j =i

Then, λ · x(y) = over, for any αi ,

i=1,...,n

j =i

λj u∗j (y, αj ) − (n − 1)

i

λi Mi ≤ 0. More-

ui (αi , α−i ) + E[xi (y) | (αi , α−i )] (9.4.1) 1 ∗ λi ui (αi , α−i ) + = λj uj (y, αj )ρ(y | αi , α−i ) − (n − 1)Mi λi y j =1,...,n, j =i

1 = )+ λi ui (αi , α−i λi =

j =i

λj uj (αi , α−i )

− (n − 1)Mi

1 λ · u(αi , α−i ) − (n − 1)Mi . λi

Because α ∈ argmaxα∈B λ · u(α), αi maximizes (9.4.1), and so α is enforceable in the direction λ. ■

We now turn to Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin’s (1994) weakening of pairwise full rank to allow for enforceable proﬁles that fail individual full rank. Definition A proﬁle α is pairwise identiﬁable for players i and j if

9.4.1 rankRij (α) = rankRi (α−i ) + rankRj (α−j ) − 1, where rankR denotes the rank of the matrix R. Note that pairwise full rank is simply individual full rank plus pairwise identiﬁability. Lemma If an action proﬁle with pure long-lived player actions is enforceable and pairwise

9.4.2 identiﬁable for long-lived players i and j , then it is orthogonally enforceable in all ij -pairwise directions, λij . Proof Suppose α † is an action proﬁle with pure long-lived player actions, that is, †

†

†

†

α † = (a1 , . . . , an , αSL ) for some ai ∈ Ai , i = 1, . . . , n. For all ai ∈ Ai , let † † ri (ai ) denote the vector of probabilities [ρ(y | (ai , α−i )]y∈Y and set ui (ai ) ≡

ui (ai , α−i ). Say that the action ai is subordinate to a set A i ⊂ Ai if there exists subordinating scalars {βi (ai )}ai ∈A i with βi (ai ) = 0 such that †

9.4

■

307

Enforceability and Identiﬁability

βi (ai )ri (ai ) = ri (ai )

(9.4.2)

βi (ai )ui (ai ) ≥ ui (ai ).

(9.4.3)

ai ∈A i

and

†

ai ∈A i

From (9.4.2), 1 = a ∈A βi (ai ). i

y

†

ρ(y | (ai , a−i )) =

†

y

ai ∈A i

βi (ai )ρ(y | (ai , a−i )) = †

i

Claim Suppose the set {ri (ai )}a ∈A is linearly dependent for a set of actions A i . Then, i

i

9.4.1 there exists an action ai ∈ A i subordinate to A i .

Proof The linear dependence of {ri (ai )}a ∈A implies the existence of scalars {ζi (ai )}, not

all 0, such that Then,

i

ai ∈A i ζi (ai )ri (ai )

i

= 0. Let ai be an action for which ζi (ai ) = 0.

[−ζi (ai )/ζi (ai )]ri (ai ) = ri (ai ).

(9.4.4)

[−ζi (ai )/ζi (ai )]ui (ai ) < ui (ai ).

(9.4.5)

ai ∈A i \{ai }

Suppose

†

ai ∈A i \{ai }

†

Because all elements of the vectors ri (ai ) are nonnegative, −ζi (ai )/ζi (ai ) > 0 for at least one ai ∈ A i \{ai }; let ai denote such an action. Multiplying (9.4.4) and (9.4.5) by the term ζi (ai )/ζi (ai ), and rearranging, shows that ai is subordinate to A i . On the other hand, if the inequality in (9.4.5) fails, then ai is subordinate to A i . Claim If ai ∈ A i is subordinate to A i and (ai , a−i ) is enforceable, then there exists †

9.4.2

ai

=

ai , ai

∈

A i ,

subordinate to

A i .

Proof Because ai ∈ A i is subordinate to A i , there are subordinating scalars {βi (ai )}

with βi (ai ) = 0 satisfying (9.4.2) and (9.4.3). Suppose (9.4.3) holds strictly. If βi (ai ) ≥ 0 for all ai ∈ A i , then {βi (ai )} corresponds to a mixture over A i (recall † that a ∈A βi (ai ) = 1). Given a−i , this mixture is both statistically indistini

i

†

guishable from ai and yields a higher payoff than ai , so the proﬁle (ai , a−i ) cannot be enforceable. Hence, there is some ai ∈ A i for which βi (ai ) < 0. Dividing both (9.4.2) and (9.4.3) by βi (ai ) < 0 and rearranging shows that ai is subordinate to A i . Suppose now that (9.4.3) holds as an equality. Let ai ∈ A i be an action with βi (ai ) = 0. A familiar rearrangement, after dividing (9.4.2) and (9.4.3) by βi (ai ), shows that ai is subordinate to A i .

308

Chapter 9

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The Folk Theorem

Claim If ai is subordinate to A i and ai is subordinate to A i \{ai }, then ai is subordinate

9.4.3 to A i \{ai }.

Proof Let {βi (ai )} be the scalars subordinating ai to A i , and {βi (ai )} be the scalars

subordinating ai to A i \{ai }. It is straightforward to verify that {β˜i (ai )} given by βi (ai ) + βi (ai )βi (ai ), if ai = ai and ai = ai , ˜ βi (ai ) = 0, otherwise, subordinates ai to A i \{ai }.

We claim that there is a set

† Ai

⊂ Ai containing

† ai

such that

{ri (ai )}a ∈A† i

is

i

linearly independent and each ai ∈ Ai is subordinate to Ai : If {ri (ai )}ai ∈Ai is †

†

†

linearly dependent (i.e., Ri (a−i ) does not have full row rank), then claim 9.4.1 implies there is an action ai1 ∈ Ai subordinate to Ai . By claim 9.4.2, we can † assume ai1 = ai . Trivially, ai1 is subordinate to A1i ≡ Ai \{ai1 }. If {ri (ai )}a ∈A1 is i

i

linearly independent, then A1i is the desired set of actions. If not, then claim 9.4.1 again implies there is an action ai2 ∈ A1i subordinate to A1i . By claim 9.4.2, we † can assume ai2 = ai . By claim 9.4.3, ai1 is subordinate to A2i ≡ A1i \{ai2 }, and 2 trivially, ai is subordinate to A2i . If {ri (ai )}a ∈A2 is linearly independent, then A2i i i is the desired set of actions. If not, then we apply the same argument. Because Ai † is ﬁnite, we must eventually obtain the desired set Ai . † † Let Ri (α−i ) denote the corresponding matrix of probability distributions

{ri (ai )}a ∈A† . Note that Ri (α−i ) has (full row) rank of rankRi (α−i ), and because †

i

†

†

i

every ai ∈ Ai is subordinate to Ai , ri (ai ) is a linear combination of the vectors {ri (ai )}a ∈A† . †

i

†

i

†

By the same argument, there is a corresponding set Aj and matrix of probability †

†

distributions Rj (α−j ) for player j . Pairwise identiﬁability thus implies that the matrix † † Ri (α−i ) †

†

Rj (α−j ) has rank equal to rankRij (α † ). Hence, for all ij -pairwise directions λij , there exists normalized continuations x satisfying λij · x = 0 and, for k = i, j , vk ≡ uk (α † ) + E[xk (y) | α † ] = uk (ak , α−k ) + E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )], †

†

∀ak ∈ Ak , †

(9.4.6)

(by the same argument as in the proof of lemma 9.2.2), as well as for k = i, j , k ≤ n, uk (α † ) + E[xk (y) | α † ] ≥ uk (ak , α−k ) + E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )], †

ij

†

∀ak ∈ Ak

(because α † is enforceable, and λk = 0 for k = i, j implies that our choice of xk is unrestricted).

9.5

■

309

Games with a Product Structure

It remains to show that for k = i, j , and ak ∈ Ak , †

vk ≥ uk (ak , α−k ) + E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )]. †

†

Let {βk (ak )} denote the scalars subordinating ak ∈ Ak to Ak . Then we have, using † β (a ) = 1 and (9.4.6), a ∈A k k †

k

k

vk = = =

ak ∈Ak

†

βk (ak )vk

βk (ak )uk (ak , α−k ) + † † βk (ak )uk (ak ) + †

† ak ∈Ak

†

ak ∈Ak

†

†

ak ∈Ak

βk (ak )E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )] †

ak ∈Ak

βk (ak )xk · rk (ak )

≥ uk (ak ) + xk · rk (ak ) = uk (ak , α−k ) + E[xk (y) | (ak , α−k )]. †

†

†

■

Pairwise identiﬁability allows us to easily weaken pairwise full rank in the “Nashthreat” folk theorem as follows. Proposition A weaker Nash-threat folk theorem Suppose there are no short-lived players, A

9.4.1 is ﬁnite, every pure-action strongly efﬁcient proﬁle is pairwise identiﬁable for all ˜ players, and F † has nonempty interior. Let F˜ denote the convex hull of u(α), where α˜ is an inefﬁcient Nash equilibrium, and the set of pure-action strongly efﬁcient proﬁles. Then, for all v ∈ int{v ∈ F˜ : vi ≥ ui (α)}, ˜ there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ). Proof By lemma 9.2.1(2), α˜ is orthogonally enforceable in any direction, and from

lemmas 9.4.1, 9.4.2, and 8.1.1(4), the pure-action strongly efﬁcient proﬁles are orthogonally enforceable in all noncoordinate directions. Suppose v ∈ int{v ∈ ˜ Because v is in the convex hull F˜ , for any noncoordinate direcF˜ : vi ≥ ui (α)}. tion λ, there is an extreme point u(a) of F˜ such that λ · v ≤ λ · u(a). Because the extreme points are orthogonally enforceable in noncoordinate directions, λ · v ≤ k ∗ (λ), that is, v ∈ H ∗ (λ). The coordinate direction ei does not impose any further restriction, because at least one action proﬁle maximizing ui (a) is strongly efﬁcient, and so enforceable, implying k ∗ (ei ) = maxa ui (a). Finally, for ˜ ≤ k ∗ (−ei ), so v ∈ H ∗ (−ei ). Therethe coordinate direction −ei , −vi ≤ −ui (α) ˜ fore, int F ⊂ M and the proof is then completed by an appeal to proposition 9.1.1. ■

This is a Nash-threat folk theorem, because the equilibrium proﬁles that are implicitly constructed through the appeal to self-generation have the property that every continuation equilibrium has payoffs that dominate the payoffs in the Nash equilibrium α˜ (see proposition 9.1.2). Fudenberg, Levine, and Maskin (1994) discuss minmax versions of the folk theorem under pairwise identiﬁability.

9.5

Games with a Product Structure

In many games of interest (such as games with repeated adverse selection), there is a separate independent public signal for each long-lived player.

310

Chapter 9

The Folk Theorem

■

Definition A game has a product structure if its space of public signals Y can be written as

9.5.1

n

i=1 Yi

× YSL , and

ρ(y | a) = ρ((y1 , . . . , yn , ySL ) | (a1 , . . . , aN )) = ρSL (ySL | an+1 , . . . , aN )

n

ρi (yi | ai , an+1 , . . . , aN ),

i=1

where ρSL is the marginal distribution of the short-lived player’ signal ySL and ρi is the marginal distribution of long-lived player i’s signal yi . As we discuss in section 10.1, every sequential equilibrium payoff of a game with a product structure is also a PPE payoff (proposition 10.1.1). The distribution determining the long-lived player i’s public signal depends only on player i’s action (and the actions of the short-lived players), so it is easy to distinguish between deviations by player i and player j . Lemma If the game has a product structure, every action proﬁle with pure long-lived

9.5.1 player actions is pairwise identiﬁable for all pairs of long-lived players. Proof Suppose α † is an action proﬁle with pure long-lived player actions, that is, α † = †

†

†

†

(a1 , . . . , an , αSL ) for some ai ∈ Ai , i = 1, . . . , n. Fix a pair of long-lived players † i and j . For each k = i, j , there is a set of actions, Ak = {ak (1), . . . , ak (k )} ⊂ Ak † † † such that ak (k ) = ak , |Ak | = k = rankRk (a−k ) and the collection of distri†

butions {ρ(· | ak (h), α−k ) : h = 1, . . . , k } is linearly independent. We need to †

†

argue that the collection {ρ(· | ai (h), α−i ) : h = 1, . . . , i } ∪ {ρ(· | aj (h), α−j ) : h = 1, . . . , j − 1} is linearly independent, because this implies rankRij (α † ) = † † i + j − 1 = rankRi (α−i ) + rankRj (α−j ) − 1. The rank of Rij (α † ) cannot be †

†

larger, because the collections of distributions corresponding to Ai and Aj contain the common distribution, ρ(· | α † ). We argue to a contradiction. Suppose there are scalars {βk (h)} such that for all j −1 i † † βj (h)ρ(y | aj (h), α−j ) = 0. Because y, h=1 βi (h)ρ(y | ai (h), α−i ) + h=1 the collections of distributions for each player are linearly independent, at least one βi (h) and one βj (h) are nonzero. The game has a product structure, so we can sum over y−ij to get, for all yi and yj (where we have suppressed the common αSL term in ρi and ρj ), i

j −1

βi (h)ρi (yi | ai (h))ρj (yj |

† aj ) +

h=1

†

βj (h)ρi (yi | ai )ρj (yj | aj (h)) = 0.

h=1

(9.5.1) †

†

For any pair of signals yi and yj with ρi (yi | ai )ρj (yj | aj ) > 0, dividing by that product gives i h=1

βi (h)

ρi (yi | ai (h)) ρi (yi |

† ai )

j −1

+

h=1

βj (h)

ρj (yj | aj (h)) †

ρj (yj | aj )

= 0.

9.6

■

311

Repeated Extensive-Form Games

If the second summation depends on yj , then we have a contradiction because the ﬁrst does not. So, suppose the second summation is independent of yj , that is, j −1

†

βj (h)ρj (yj | aj (h)) = cρj (yj | aj )

h=1

for some c, for all yj receiving positive probability under a † . Moreover, for yj j −1 receiving zero probability under a † , (9.5.1) implies h=1 βj (h)ρj (yj | aj (h)) † = 0, and so {ρ(· | aj (h), α−j ) : h = 1, . . . , j } is linearly dependent, a contradiction. ■

As an immediate implication of proposition 9.4.1, we thus have the following folk theorem. Proposition Suppose there are no short-lived players, A is ﬁnite, the game has a product

˜ 9.5.1 structure, and F † has nonempty interior. Let F˜ denote the convex hull of u(α), where α˜ is an inefﬁcient Nash equilibrium, and the set of pure-action strongly efﬁcient proﬁles. Then, for all v ∈ int{v ∈ F˜ : vi ≥ ui (α)}, ˜ there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), v ∈ E (δ).

9.6

Repeated Extensive-Form Games

We now consider repeated extensive-form games. In this section, there are no shortlived players. The stage game is a ﬁnite extensive-form game with no moves of nature. We denote the inﬁnite repetition of by ∞ . Because the public signal of play within the stage game is the terminal node reached, the set of terminal nodes is denoted Y with typical element y. An action for player i speciﬁes a move for player i at every information set owned by that player. Given an action proﬁle a, because there are no moves of nature, a unique terminal node y(a) is reached under the moves implied by a. The ex post payoff u∗i (y, ai ) depends only on y (payoffs are assigned to terminal nodes of the extensive form), and ui (a) = u∗i (y(a)) ≡ u∗i (y(a), ai ). A sequence of action proﬁles (a 0 , a 1 , . . . , a t−1 ) induces a public history of terminal nodes ht = (y(a 0 ), y(a 1 ), . . . , y(a t−1 )). As we discuss in section 5.4, there are additional incentive constraints that must be satisﬁed when the stage game is an extensive-form game, arising from behavior at unreached subgames. In particular, a PPE proﬁle need not be a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated extensive-form game. It is immediate that the approach in sections 3.4.2 and 3.7 can be used to prove a folk theorem for repeated extensive-form games.9 Here we modify the tools from chapters 7 9. For example, one modiﬁes the construction in proposition 3.4.1 by prescribing an equilibrium outcome path featuring a stage-game action proﬁle a 0 that attains the desired payoff from F ∗ , with play entering a player i punishment path in any period in which player i was the last player to deviate from equilibrium actions (given the appropriate history) in the previous period’s (extensive-form) stage game. Wen (2002) presents a folk theorem for multistage games with observable actions, replacing the full dimensionality condition with a generalization of NEU.

312

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

and 8 to accommodate the additional incentive constraints raised by extensive-form stage games. There are only minor modiﬁcations to these tools, so we proceed quickly. Let be the collection of initial nodes of the subgames of the extensive form, with ξ 0 being the initial node of the extensive form. We denote the subgame of with initial node ξ ∈ by ξ ; note that ξ 0 = . If the extensive form has no nontrivial subgames, then = {ξ 0 }. Given a node ξ ∈ , ui (a | ξ ) is i’s payoff in ξ given the moves in ξ implied by a. The terminal node reached by a conditional on ξ is denoted y(a | ξ ) (this is a terminal node of ξ ), so that ui (a | ξ ) = u∗i (y(a | ξ )) and ui (a | ξ 0 ) = ui (a). Every subgame of ∞ is reached by some public history of past terminal nodes, h ∈ H (i.e., h ∈ Y t for some t), and a sequence of moves within that reach some node ξ ∈ . For such a history (h, ξ ), the subgame reached is strategically equivalent to the inﬁnite horizon game that begins with ξ , followed by ∞ ; we denote this game by ∞ (ξ ). Note that ∞ (ξ 0 ) = ∞ , the game strategically equivalent to the subgames that are the focus of chapters 2 and 3. Denote the strategy proﬁle induced by σ on ∞ (ξ ) by σ |(h,ξ ) . Definition A strategy proﬁle σ is a subgame-perfect equilibrium if for every public history

9.6.1 h ∈ H and every node ξ ∈ , the proﬁle σ |(h,ξ ) is a Nash equilibrium of ∞ (ξ ). We then have the following analog of propositions 2.2.1 and 7.1.1 (the proof is essentially identical, mutatis mutandis).

Proposition Suppose there are no short-lived players. A strategy proﬁle is a subgame-perfect

9.6.1 equilibrium if and only if for all histories (h, ξ ), σ (h) is a Nash equilibrium of the normal-form game with payoffs g(a) = (1 − δ)u(a | ξ ) + δU (σ |(h,y(a|ξ )) ). We now modify deﬁnitions 7.3.1 and 7.3.2. Definition For any W ⊂ Rn , a pure action proﬁle a ∈ A is subgame enforceable on W if

9.6.2 there exists a mapping γ : Y → W such that, for all initial nodes ξ ∈ , for all i, and ai ∈ Ai , (1 − δ)ui (a | ξ ) + δγi (y(a | ξ )) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i | ξ ) + δγi (y(ai , a−i | ξ )). The function γ subgame enforces a (on W ). Because we only use pure action decomposability in this section, we omit the adjective “pure-action” in the following notions. Definition A payoff vector v ∈ Rn is subgame decomposable on W if there exists an action

9.6.3 proﬁle a ∈ A, subgame enforced by γ on W , such that

vi = (1 − δ)ui (a) + δγi (y(a)). The payoff v is subgame decomposed by the pair (a, γ ) (on W ). A set of payoffs W ⊂ Rn is subgame self-generating if every payoff proﬁle in W is subgame decomposed by some pair (a, γ ) on W .

9.6

■

313

Repeated Extensive-Form Games

We now have an analog to propositions 2.5.1 and 7.3.1 (the proof is identical, apart from the appeal to proposition 9.6.1, rather than proposition 2.2.1 or 7.1.1): Proposition For any bounded set W ⊂ Rn , if W is subgame self-generating, then W ⊂ E E (δ),

9.6.2 that is, W is a set of subgame-perfect equilibrium payoffs.

It is a straightforward veriﬁcation that proposition 7.3.4 and corollaries 7.3.2 and 7.3.3 hold for the current notions (where locally subgame self-generating is the obvious notion). We now consider the analog of (8.1.1) for the current scenario. Let κ ∗ (a, λ, δ) be the maximum value of λ · v over v for which there exists γ : Y → Rn satisfying v = (1 − δ)u(a) + δγ (y(a)), (1 − δ)ui (a | ξ ) + δγi (y(a | ξ )) ≥ (1 − δ)ui (ai , a−i | ξ ) + δγi (y(ai , a−i | ξ )), ∀ξ ∈ , ∀ai ∈ Ai , ∀i, and λ · v ≥ λ · γ (y),

∀y ∈ Y.

As in chapter 8, we can replace γi with xi (y) = δ(γi (y) − vi )/(1 − δ) to obtain constraints independent of the discount factor. It is easy to verify that the subgame version of lemma 8.1.1 holds. Let κ ∗ (λ) = maxa∈A κ ∗ (a, λ, δ) and M E ≡ ∩λ {v : λ · v ≤ κ ∗ (λ)}. We then have the analog of proposition 9.1.2 (which is proved similarly): Proposition Suppose the stage game is a ﬁnite extensive form. Suppose W is a smooth convex

9.6.3 subset of the interior of M E . Then, W is locally subgame self-generating, so there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), W ⊂ E E (δ). We are now in a position to state and prove the folk theorem for repeated extensiveform games. Proposition Suppose there are no short-lived players, and the stage game is a ﬁnite extensive-

9.6.4 form game with no moves of nature. Suppose, moreover, that F † has nonempty p p interior and v p = (v1 , . . . , vn ) is inefﬁcient. For every v ∈ intF †p , there exists δ < 1 such that for all δ ∈ (δ, 1) there exists a subgame-perfect equilibrium of the repeated extensive-form game with value v. Proof Given proposition 9.6.3, we need only prove that F †p ⊂ M E . Step 1. We ﬁrst show that any pure action proﬁle a is subgame enforced, that is,

there exists x : Y → Rn such that, for all ξ ∈ , ui (a | ξ ) + xi (y(a | ξ )) ≥ ui (ai , a−i | ξ ) + xi (y(ai , a−i | ξ )), ∀ai ∈ Ai , ∀i. (9.6.1) As is the set of initial nodes of subgames of , it is partially ordered by precedence, where ξ ≺ ξ if ξ is a node in ξ . Let { }L =0 be a partition of , where 0 = {ξ 0 }, = {ξ ∈ : ξ ≺ ξ , ∃ξ , ξ ≺ ξ ≺ ξ for some ξ ∈ −1 }.

314

Chapter 9

■

The Folk Theorem

Because is ﬁnite, L is ﬁnite. Let Yξ be the set of terminal nodes in ξ . If ξ and ξ are not ordered by ≺, then Yξ ∩ Yξ = ∅, whereas if ξ ≺ ξ then Yξ Yξ (i.e., we have strict inclusion).10 Of course, Yξ 0 = Y . Fix an initial node ξ ∈ L . Any two unilateral deviations from a in ξ that result in a terminal node different from y(a | ξ ) being reached must reach distinct terminal nodes, that is, if y(ai , a−i | ξ ) = y(a | ξ ) and y(aj , a−j | ξ ) = y(a | ξ ), then y(ai , a−i | ξ ) = y(aj , a−j | ξ ). Consequently, for y ∈ Yξ , we can specify x L (y) so that (9.6.1) is satisﬁed using x = x L . We now proceed by induction. Suppose we have speciﬁed, for ≥ 1, x (y) for y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ so that (9.6.1) holds for all ξ ∈ ∪k≥ . Fix an initial node ξ ∈ −1 . If there is no node in following ξ , then x (y) for y ∈ Yξ is undeﬁned. As for the case ξ ∈ L , we can specify x −1 (y) for y ∈ Yξ so that (9.6.1) is satisﬁed using x = x −1 for ξ , without affecting (9.6.1) for ξ ∈ ∪k≥ . Suppose now there is one (or more nodes) in following ξ . If y(a | ξ ) ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ (i.e., none of these nodes are reached under a from ξ ), then set

xi−1 (y) =

M¯ ,

y = y(a | ξ ),

x (y), y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ , i 0, y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ , y = y(a | ξ ),

where M¯ = max ui (a) − min ui (a) + 1 + max xi (y). This choice of x −1 (y) for y ∈ Yξ ensures that (9.6.1) is satisﬁed using x = x −1 for ξ , without affecting (9.6.1) for ξ ∈ ∪k≥ (because the normalized continuations on the subgames are unaffected). If y(a | ξ ) ∈ Yξ for some (necessarily unique) ξ ∈ , set ¯ xi (y) + M , y ∈ Yξ , xi−1 (y) = xi (y), y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ ,ξ =ξ Yξ , 0, y ∈ ∪ξ ∈ Yξ . This choice of x −1 (y) for y ∈ Yξ ensures that (9.6.1) is satisﬁed using x = x −1 for ξ , without affecting (9.6.1) for ξ ∈ ∪k≥ (because the normalized continuations on the subgames are either unaffected, or modiﬁed by a constant). Hence, (9.6.1) holds for all ξ ∈ . Consequently (recall lemma 9.2.1), the pure-action minmax proﬁle aˆ i is orthogonally enforceable in the direction −ei . Step 2. It remains to argue that every pure action proﬁle is orthogonally sub-

game enforced in all noncoordinate directions. Because a “subgame” version of lemma 8.1.1 holds with identical proof, it is enough to show that a is orthogonally subgame enforced in all pairwise directions. Denote by xˆ the normalized continuations just constructed to satisfy (9.6.1). For a ﬁxed ij-pairwise direction λ, 10. Without loss of generality, we assume each node has at least two moves.

9.6

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315

Repeated Extensive-Form Games

we now construct orthogonally enforcing continuations from x. ˆ We ﬁrst deﬁne new continuations that satisfy the orthogonality constraint for y = y(a), that is, x˜k (y) =

xˆk (y),

if k = i, j ,

xˆk (y) − xˆk (y(a)), if k = i or j .

Then, λ · x(y(a)) ˜ = 0. Moreover, because a constant was subtracted from xi independent of y (and similarly for j ), (9.6.1) holds for all ξ ∈ under x. ˜ We ﬁrst iteratively adjust x˜ so that on the outcome path of every subgame of , orthogonality holds. Suppose ξ ∈ 1 and that ξ is reached from ξ 0 by a unilateral deviation by player i (hence, ∃y ∈ Yξ , ∃ai = ai , y = y(ai , a−i )). For y ∈ Yξ , we subtract from each of player j ’s continuations the quantity x˜j (y(a | ξ )) + λi x˜i (y(a | ξ ))/λj . Observe that these new continuations satisfy ˜ (9.6.1) for all ξ ∈ . Moreover, denoting the new continuations also by x, λ · x(y(a ˜ | ξ )) = 0. We proceed analogously for a node ξ ∈ 1 reached from ξ 0 by a unilateral deviation by player j . The only other possibility is that ξ cannot be reached by a unilateral deviation by i or j , in which case we can set x˜i (y) = x˜j (y) = 0 for all y ∈ Yξ without any impact on incentives. Proceeding inductively, we now assume λ · x(y(a ˜ | ξ )) = 0 for all ξ ∈ −1 ∪m=0 m . Suppose ξ ∈ , and denote its immediate predecessor by ξ −1 ∈ ˜ | ξ )) = 0, and no adjustment is −1 . If y(a | ξ −1 ) = y(a | ξ ), then λ · x(y(a −1 necessary. Suppose y(a | ξ ) = y(a | ξ ) and ξ is reached from ξ −1 by a unilateral deviation by either i or j (hence, either ∃y ∈ Yξ , ∃ai , y = y(ai , a−i | ξ −1 ), or ∃y ∈ Yξ , ∃aj , y = y(aj , a−j | ξ −1 )). Suppose it is player i. For y ∈ Yξ , we subtract x˜j (y(a | ξ )) + λi x˜i (y(a | ξ ))/λj from each of player j ’s continuations. These new continuations also satisfy (9.6.1) for all ξ ∈ . Moreover, denoting the new continuations also by x, ˜ λ · x(y(a ˜ | ξ )) = 0. As before, the only other possibility is that ξ cannot be reached from ξ −1 by a unilateral deviation by i or j , in which case we can set x˜i (y) = x˜j (y) = 0 for all y ∈ Yξ without any impact on incentives. Proceeding in this way yields continuations x˜ that satisfy (9.6.1) and for all ξ ∈ , λ · x(y(a ˜ | ξ )) = 0. It remains to adjust x˜ for y = y(a | ξ ) for all ξ . Fix such a y. There is a “last” node ξ ∈ such that y ∈ Yξ (that is, ∃ξ , ξ ≺ ξ , with y ∈ Yξ ). We partition Yξ into three sets, {y(a | ξ )}, Yξ1 , and Yξ2 , where Yξ1 = {y ∈ Yξ : y = y(ai , a−i | ξ ) for some ai = ai , or y = y(aj , a−j | ξ ) for some aj = aj } is the set of nodes reached via a unilateral deviation by either i or j from ξ , and Yξ2 = Yξ \ (Yξ1 ∪ {y(a | ξ )}) are the remaining terminal nodes. If y ∈ Yξ2 , we can redeﬁne x˜i (y) = x˜j (y) = 0 without affecting any incentive constraints, and obtaining λ · x(y) ˜ = 0. Finally, suppose y ∈ Yξ1 and y = y(ai , a−i ) for some ai ∈ Ai . Then, player j cannot unilaterally deviate from a and reach y, so that the value of xj (y) is irrelevant for j ’s incentives, and we can set xj (y(ai , a−i )) = −λi xi (y(ai , a−i ))/λj . ■

316

Chapter 9

9.7

■

The Folk Theorem

Games of Symmetric Incomplete Information

This section examines an important class of dynamic games, games of symmetric incomplete information. Although there is incomplete information about the state of the world, because players have identical beliefs about the state after all histories, decomposability and self-generation are still central concepts. The game begins with the draw of a state ξ from the ﬁnite set of possible states , according to the prior distribution µ0 , with µ0 (ξ ) > 0 for all ξ ∈ . The players know the prior distribution µ0 but receive no further information about the state. Each player i, i = 1, . . . , n, has a ﬁnite set of actions Ai , independent of ξ , with payoffs given by ui : A × → R.11 Every pair of states ξ, ξ ∈ are distinct, in the sense that there is an action proﬁle a for which u(a, ξ ) = u(a, ξ ). As usual, u(α, µ) = ξ a ui (a, ξ )α(a)µ(ξ ). The players share a common discount factor δ. At the end of each period t, each player observes the action proﬁle a t and the realized payoff proﬁle u(a t , ξ ). Observing the action and payoff proﬁles may provide the players with considerable information about the state, but it does not ensure that the state is instantly learned or even eventually learned. For any pair of states ξ and ξ , there may be some action proﬁles that give identical payoffs, so that some observations may give only partial information about the state or may give no information at all. Because the set of states is ﬁnite and every pair of states is distinct, there are repeated-game strategy proﬁles ensuring that the players will learn the state in a ﬁnite number of periods. However, it is not obvious that an equilibrium will feature such behavior. The players in the game face a problem similar to a multiarmed bandit. Learning the payoffs of all the arms requires that they all be pulled. It may be optimal to always pull arm 1, never learning the payoff of arm 2. As players become increasingly patient, experimenting in their action choices to collect information about the state becomes increasingly inexpensive. However, even arbitrarily patient players may optimally never learn the state. The players’bandit problem is interactive. The informativeness of player i’s action depends on j ’s choice, so that i alone cannot ensure that the state is learned. In addition, the outcome that appears once a state is learned is itself an equilibrium phenomenon, raising the possibility that a player may prefer to not learn the state. Example Players need not learn Suppose there are two players and two equally likely

9.7.1 states, with the stage games for the two states given in ﬁgure 9.7.1. Suppose ﬁrst that x = y = 0, and consider an equilibrium in which players 1 and 2 each choose C in each period, regardless of history. These are stage-game best responses for any posterior belief about the state. In addition, no unilateral deviation results in a proﬁle that reveals any information about the state (even though there exist proﬁles that would identify the state). We thus have an equilibrium in which the players never learn the state. There are also equilibria in which players learn the state. One such proﬁle has an outcome path with AA in the initial period, followed by BB in odd periods 11. As in section 5.5.1, this is without loss of generality.

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A

B

C

A

5, 1

0, 0

y, 0

B

0, 0

1, 5

C

0, y

0, x ξ

A

B

C

A

0, 0

1, 5

x, 0

x, 0

B

5, 1

0, 0

y, 0

2, 2

C

0, x

0, y

2, 2

ξ

Figure 9.7.1 Stage games for state ξ and state ξ .

and AA in even periods if payoffs reveal the state is ξ , and by AB in odd periods and BA in even periods if the state is revealed to be ξ . Given the speciﬁcation of AA in the initial period, the state is revealed at the end of period 0 even if a player unilaterally deviates to B. The proﬁle is completed by specifying that any deviation to C in the initial period restarts the proﬁle, that other deviations by player 2 after period 0 and all other deviations by player 1 are ignored, and ﬁnally that a deviation by player 2 in period 0 to B results in permanent AA in ξ and permanent BA in ξ . Player 1 is always playing a stage-game best response. Though A is not a best response for player 2 in period 0 (she is best responding in every subsequent period, given the revelation of the state in period 0), the speciﬁcation ensures that she is optimizing for large δ. Suppose now that x = 6 and y = 7. The proﬁle in which CC is played in every period after every history is clearly no longer an equilibrium. Nonetheless, there is still an equilibrium in which players do not learn the state. In the equilibrium, CC is played after any history featuring only the outcomes CC. After any history in which the state becomes known as a result of a unilateral deviation by player 1 (respectively, 2), continuation play consists of the perpetual play of BB (respectively, AA) in state ξ and AB (respectively, BA) in state ξ . Continuation play thus penalizes the deviating player for learning the state, and sufﬁciently patient players will ﬁnd it optimal to play CC, deliberately not learning the state. ●

Example Learning facilitates punishment Continuing from example 9.7.1, suppose x =

9.7.2 y = 10. We are still interested in the existence of equilibria in which learning does not occur, that is, in equilibria with outcome path CC, CC, CC, . . . . In contrast to example 9.7.1, a deviation (though myopically proﬁtable) does not reveal the state. However, we can use subsequent learning to create appropriate incentives. Consider the following revealing proﬁle, σ 1 . In the initial period, play BB, followed by BB in state ξ and AB in state ξ , in every subsequent period. Deviations to C in period 0 restart the proﬁle, and other deviations are ignored. The actions are a stage-game Nash equilibrium in each period and only an initial deviation to C can affect information about the state, so this proﬁle is an equilibrium, giving player 1 a payoff close to 1. Denote by σ 2 the analogous revealing proﬁle that gives player 2

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a payoff close to 1. Then, for large δ, there exists a pure-strategy nonrevealing equilibrium with outcome path CC, CC, CC, . . . , simultaneous deviations ignored, and continuation play given by σ i after unilateral deviation by player i. ●

Remark Imperfect monitoring Both actions and payoffs are perfectly monitored in the

9.7.1 model just described. The canonical single-agent bandit problem considers the more complicated inference problem in which arms have random payoffs. Wiseman (2005) considers a game of symmetric incomplete information with a similar inference problem. For each action proﬁle a and state ξ , there is a distribution ρ(y | a, ξ ) determining the draw of a public signal y ∈ Y for some ﬁnite Y . Ex ante payoffs, as a function of the action proﬁle and the state, are given by u∗i (y, a)ρ(y | a, ξ ), ui (a, ξ ) = y∈Y

where u∗i : Y × A → R is i’s ex post payoff. After each period, players observe both the actions chosen in that period and the realized payoff proﬁle (or equivalently, the signal y). Our formulation is the special case in which the distribution ρ(y | a, ξ ) is degenerate for each a and ξ . ◆ 9.7.1 Equilibrium p

For each player i and state ξ , we let vi (ξ ) be the pure minmax payoff: p

vi (ξ ) = min max ui (ai , a−i , ξ ). a−i

ai

We then let F (ξ ), F † (ξ ), and F †p (ξ ) be the set of pure stage-game payoffs, the convex hull of this set, and the subset of the latter that is strictly individually rational, for state ξ . We assume that F †p (ξ ) has dimension n, for each ξ . A period t history (ξ, {a τ , uτ }t−1 τ =0 ) contains the state and the action proﬁles and payoffs realized in periods 0 through t − 1. A period t public history ht contains the action proﬁles and payoffs from periods 0 to t − 1. The set of feasible period t public t histories H t is thus a subset of (A × Rn )t , with {a τ , uτ }t−1 τ =0 ∈ H if there exists τ ξ ∈ with the property that, for each period τ = 0, . . . , t − 1, u = u(a τ , ξ ). Given a prior µ ∈ (), an action proﬁle a and a payoff u may rule out some states but otherwise does not alter the odds ratio. That is, the posterior is given by ϕ(µ | a, u)(ξ ) ≡

µ(ξ )/

{ξ :u(a,ξ )=u} µ(ξ

),

if u(a, ξ ) = u, if u(a, ξ ) = u.

0,

We write ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ξ ) for ϕ(µ | a, u(a, ξ )). The period t posterior distribution over , given the period t history ht , is denoted by µ(· | ht ) or µ(ht ). These posteriors are deﬁned recursively, with µ(∅) = µ0

(9.7.1)

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Symmetric Incomplete Information

319

and µ(ht ) = ϕ(µ(ht−1 ) | a, u),

(9.7.2)

where ht = (ht−1 , a, u). Fix a prior distribution µ0 and let K be the set of possible posterior distributions, given prior µ0 . The set K is ﬁnite with 2K − 1 elements, where K is the number of states in . Each posterior is identiﬁed by the states that have not been ruled out, that is, that still command positive probability. It is clear from (9.7.1) and (9.7.2) that for any subset of states, every history under which beliefs attach positive probability to precisely that subset must give the same posterior distribution. A behavior strategy σ for player i is a function mapping from the set of public histories H into (A). We let Ui (σ, µ) be the expected payoff to player i given strategy proﬁle σ and prior distribution over states µ. We can treat this game of symmetric incomplete information as a dynamic game of perfect information by setting the set of game states equal to K , setting the stagegame payoffs equal to the expected payoffs under the current state, and determining game-state transitions by ϕ. Because Bayes’ rule speciﬁes beliefs after every public history, beliefs trivially satisfy the consistency requirement of sequential equilibrium. Definition The strategy proﬁle σ is a sequential equilibrium if, given the beliefs implied by

9.7.1 (9.7.1) and (9.7.2), for all players i, histories h, and alternative strategies σi , Ui (σ |h , µ(h)) ≥ Ui (σi , σ−i |h , µ(h)).

The set of sequential equilibrium proﬁles of the game of symmetric incomplete information clearly coincides with the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium proﬁles of the implied dynamic game. We now provide a self-generating characterization of sets of sequential equilibrium payoffs. Let W ⊂ Rn be a set of payoff proﬁles. A pair (v, µ) ∈ W × K identiﬁes a payoff proﬁle v for the repeated game whose prior probability over is µ. Let WK be a subset of W × K (where WK need not be a product set). A pair (v, µ) is decomposed by the proﬁle α ∈ i (Ai ) on the set WK if there exists a function ˆ µ) ˆ ∈ WK for all a and µˆ ∈ K such that, for each γ : A × K → Rn with (γ (a, µ), player i and action ai , γi (a, ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ξ ))α(a)µ(ξ ) (9.7.3) vi = (1 − δ)ui (α, µ) + δ a∈A

≥

(1 − δ)ui (ai , α−i , µ) + δ

γ (ai , a−i , ϕ ∗ (µ | ai , a−i , ξ ))α−i (a−i )µ(ξ ).

a−i ∈A−i

(9.7.4)

The ﬁrst condition ensures that expected payoffs are given by v, and the second supplies the required incentive compatibility constraints. We cannot in general take the set WK to be the product W × K . There may be payoff proﬁles that can be achieved in games with some prior distributions over states but not in games with other prior distributions. The set WK is self-generating if every pair (v, µ) ∈ WK can be decomposed on WK . The following is a special case of proposition 5.7.4 for dynamic games:

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Proposition Suppose WK is self-generating. Then for every (v, µ) ∈ WK , there is a sequential

9.7.1 equilibrium of the repeated game with prior belief µ whose expected payoff is v. 9.7.2 A Folk Theorem Let U (σ | ξ ) be the repeated-game payoff from strategy proﬁle σ , given that the state is in fact ξ . Let the states in be denoted by {ξ1 , . . . , ξK }. The following is a special case of Wiseman’s (2005) main result (see remark 9.7.1). Proposition Fix a prior µ0 on with µ0 (ξk ) > 0 for all ξk ∈ . For any vector of payoff

9.7.2 proﬁles (v ∗ (ξ1 ), . . . , v ∗ (ξK )), with v ∗ (ξk ) ∈ intF †p (ξk ) for all k, and any ε > 0, there is a discount factor δ such that, for all δ ∈ (δ, 1), there exists a sequential equilibrium σ of the game of incomplete information with prior µ0 such that |U (σ | ξk ) − v ∗ (ξk )| < ε ∀k. We thus have a state-by-state approximate folk theorem. The proﬁle constructed in the proof produces the appropriate payoffs given the state, by ﬁrst inducing the players to learn the state. As we have seen in example 9.7.1, learning need not occur in equilibrium, and so speciﬁc incentives must be provided.

Proof From (9.7.1) and (9.7.2), each posterior in K is identiﬁed by its support. Let

K () be the collection of posteriors in which states receive positive probability. Fix (v ∗ (ξk ))k , a vector of payoff proﬁles, with v ∗ (ξk ) ∈ intF †p (ξk ) for all k. Choose ε < ε/2 sufﬁciently small that B ε (v ∗ (ξk )) is in the interior of F †p (ξk ) for each ξk . For each posterior µ ∈ K (), let Cµ = B ε K−+1 K

v ∗ (ξk )µ(ξk ) .

(9.7.5)

ξk ∈

For each possible posterior distribution µ ∈ K , Cµ is a closed ball of payoffs, centered at the expected value of the target payoffs under µ. The radius decreases in the number of states contained in the support of µ, ranging from a radius of ε /K when no states have been excluded to a radius of ε when probability one is attached to a single state. This behavior of the radius of Cµ is critical in providing sufﬁcient freedom in the choice of continuation values after revealing action proﬁles to provide incentives. Our candidate for a self-generating set is the union of these sets, CK = ∪µ∈K (Cµ × {µ}). The pair (a, µ), consisting of a pure action proﬁle and a belief, is revealing if the belief µ attaches positive probability to two or more states that give different payoffs under a. Hence, a revealing pair (a, µ) ensures that if a is played given posterior µ, then the set of possible states will be reﬁned. In equilibrium, there can only be a ﬁnite number of revealing proﬁles played, at which point beliefs either attach unitary probability to a single state or no further revealing proﬁles are played.

9.7

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321

Symmetric Incomplete Information

The proof relies on two lemmas. First, lemma 9.7.1 shows there exists a discount factor δ such that for all δ ∈ (δ , 1), the set CK is self-generating. This sufﬁces to ensure that CK is a set of sequential equilibrium payoffs (proposition 9.7.1) for such δ. Second, lemma 9.7.2 shows that for all δ ∈ (δ , 1), there exists an equilibrium with every continuation-payoff/posterior pair (v, µ) in CK with the property that in every period, either a revealing proﬁle is played, or µ ∈ K (1). As a result, for all δ ∈ (δ , 1), we are assured of the existence of an equilibrium such that within at most K periods, the continuation payoff lies within ε < ε/2 of v ∗ (ξk ) for the true state ξk . To ensure that payoffs are within ε of v ∗ , it then sufﬁces to restrict the discount factor to be high enough that (1 − δ K )(M − m)

0. Denote by Cµ the set of values v ∈ Cµ satisfying, for each player i, vi ≥ min vˆi + η.

(9.7.6)

v∈C ˆ µ

η

In this step, we show that there exists δη such that every point in Cµ can be decomposed on CK using a revealing action proﬁle, for all δ ∈ (δη , 1). Choose δη ∈ (0, 1) so that for all δ ∈ (δη , 1), ε 1−δ (M − m) < min η, √ ≡ ζ. δ 2 nK

(9.7.7)

Because states are distinct, there is a revealing action proﬁle a that discriminates between at least two of the states receiving positive probability under µ. η Fix v ∈ Cµ , and let v be the payoff satisfying

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The Folk Theorem

v = (1 − δ)u(a, µ) + δv . Rearranging, (9.7.7) implies |vi − vi | < v

− v, we have ||

0}

(9.7.12)

Of the states assigned positive probability by µ, ξ(i, µ) is that state giving player i the lowest minmax payoff, if the state were known. Let aˆ −i (µ) be the associated minmax proﬁle in state ξ(i, µ). This action proﬁle need not minmax player i given posterior µ because it only necessarily minmaxes i in one of the states receiving p positive probability under µ. However, vi (ξ(i, µ)) < vi because vi is the average p (over states) of payoffs which exceed the corresponding minmax payoffs vi (ξ ), p each of which is at least vi (ξ(i, µ)). The idea is to decompose v using the proﬁle a ≡ (aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), where aˆ i maximizes ui (ai , aˆ −i (µ), µ). Suppose the action proﬁle (aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)) is revealing. The analysis in step 2 shows that with the exception of nonrevealing deviations ˜ ξ ) can be a = (ai , aˆ −i (µ)), the continuations after any proﬁle a˜ and payoff u(a, ' √ 12. Inequality (9.7.6) can fail for two players only if 2(r − η)2 < r or η > r(1 − 1/ 2) (where r is the radius of Cµ ). Finally, r ≥ ε /K for all µ ∈ K . 13. If we use a revealing action to decompose v, then the analysis from step 2 can be used to construct continuations that deter any deviations to revealing actions. The difﬁculty arises with a deviation to a nonrevealing action proﬁle a .

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chosen so deviations by i are not proﬁtable and (γ (a, ˜ ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ˜ ξ )), ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ˜ ξ )) ∈ CK . The difﬁculty with nonrevealing action proﬁles a = (ai , aˆ −i (µ)) is that the continuation payoff must now come from the set Cµ and player i’s payoff is already near its minimum in the set Cµ . Consequently, incentives cannot be provided via continuations. However, for the deviation to a not to be proﬁtable, it sufﬁces that ui (a , µ) ≤ ui ((aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), µ). We show that this inequality holds. Player i’s expected payoff from (ai , aˆ −i (µ)) must be the same in every positive probability state (otherwise the proﬁle is revealing). But player i’s payoff from (ai , aˆ −i (µ)) in state ξ(i, µ) can be no larger than p vi (ξ(i, µ)), and hence his payoff in every state can be no larger. The deviation to ai thus brings a smaller current payoff than vi . Choosing v as the continuation payoff then ensures that ai is suboptimal. Hence, combining these last two steps, if µ has nonsingleton support, for all η ∈ (0, η ) and all δ ∈ (δη , 1), every payoff in Cµ is decomposed on CK , apart ˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), µ) nonrevealing. from v ∈ Cµ with vi ≤ minv∈C ˆ µ vˆ i + η and ((a Step 4. It remains to decompose payoffs v ∈ Cµ with vi ≤ minv∈C ˆ µ vˆ i + η and

((aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), µ) nonrevealing, for small η. As we argued in the penultimate p paragraph of step 3, ui (a, µ) ≡ ui ((aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)), µ) = vi (ξ(i, µ)). This value is i strictly less than vi . Let v ∈ Cµ be the unique point for which i’s payoff in Cµ is minimized (the point is unique because Cµ is a strictly convex set). Because vii > ui (a, µ), there is a θ > 1 such that (1 − θ)u(a, µ) + θ v i ∈ intCµ for all θ ∈ (1, θ ). Consequently, there exist η ∈ (0, η ) and θ > 1 such that for all v ∈ Cµ satisfying (9.7.11), (1 − θ )u(a, µ) + θ v ∈ intCµ for all θ ∈ (1, θ ). This implies that for all δ ∈ (1/θ , 1), there exists v in the interior of Cµ such that v = (1 − δ)u(a) + δv .

We decompose v with a proﬁle (aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)) and continuation payoff v after (aˆ i , aˆ −i (µ)). Continuation payoffs for deviations by players other than i or by deviations on the part of player i to revealing actions are constructed as in step 2. Nonrevealing deviations by player i are ignored. Set δµ = max{δη , 1/θ }, where δη is deﬁned in (9.7.7) for η = η . It is now straightforward to verify that the required incentive constraints hold for all δ ∈ (δµ , 1). Summarizing steps 2 through 4, for all µ with nonsingleton support, there exists δµ such that any (v, µ) ∈ CK can be decomposed on CK , for any δ ∈ (δµ , 1). The proof of the lemma is completed by taking δ as the maximum of δµ over all µ ∈ K (a ﬁnite set). ■

Lemma For every δ ∈ (δ , 1), there exists a sequential equilibrium with the properties that

9.7.2 every history gives rise to a pair (v, µ) ∈ CK and that in every period, either a revealing proﬁle is played or µ ∈ K (1).

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325

Proof Because δ satisﬁes (9.7.7) for η = η from step 4 of the proof of lemma 9.7.1, by

step 2 the payoff ξk ∈ v ∗ (ξk )µ0 (ξk ) can be decomposed by a revealing current action proﬁle a and continuation payoffs γ (a, ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ξj )) that lie within ε /2K of ξk ∈ v ∗ (ξk )ϕ ∗ (µ | a, ξj )(ξk ). For any µ = ϕ ∗ (µ0 | a, ξj ), because a is revealing, µ ∈ ∪ η ,

and so satisﬁes (9.7.6). Hence, continuing in this fashion, we construct a proﬁle with a revealing action in each period and with the property that any continuation value on the path of play satisﬁes (9.7.6) (because at each stage, the continuation v is within ε (K − )/(2K) of the center of Cµ ). Consequently, within at most K periods, the posterior probability is in K (1) and continuation payoffs are within K−1 ε ∗ K ε < ε < 2 of v (ξj ) for that (single) state ξj to which the posterior attaches positive probability. Because the set CK is self-generating for δ > δ , and K is ﬁnite, for sufﬁciently large δ, the proﬁle is a sequential equilibrium. ■

There are two key insights in this argument. The ﬁrst is that by choosing the set CK to be the union of sets Cµ × {µ}, where the size of Cµ is increasing in the conﬁdence that players have about the state, revealing action proﬁles can be enforced (step 2 of the proof of lemma 9.7.1). The second is that when a nonrevealing action proﬁle is played, because payoffs are uninformative, continuations are not needed to provide incentives (steps 3 and 4 in the proof of lemma 9.7.1). These insights play a similarly important role in Wiseman’s (2005) argument, which covers mixed minmax payoffs and games of imperfect monitoring (see remark 9.7.1). This noisy monitoring of payoffs poses two difﬁculties. First, the set of posteriors, and hence the set K , is no longer ﬁnite. Second, we no longer have the sharp distinction between a revealing action and a nonrevealing action proﬁle. The argument replaces our ﬁnite union ∪µ∈K (Cµ × {µ}) with a function from the simplex of posteriors into sets of continuation payoffs, with the property that

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the sets of payoffs become larger as beliefs approach certainty. The next step is to replace the idea of a revealing proﬁle with a proﬁle that maximizes expected learning, that is, maximizes the expected distance between the current posterior and the future posterior. One then argues that every payoff/belief pair (v, µ) can be decomposed with a current action that maximizes expected learning, except those that minimize a player’s payoff, which can be decomposed by forcing the player in question to choose an action that either induces some learning or yields a low payoff. The argument concludes by showing that there is a ﬁnite number of periods with the property that with very high probability, within this collection of periods the posterior converges to very near the truth and stays there forever.

9.8

Short Period Length

In section 3.2.3, we introduced the interpretation of patience as short period length. For perfect monitoring games, it is purely a question of taste whether one views high δ as patient players or short-period length. This is not the case, however, for public monitoring. Although interpreting payoffs on a ﬂow basis poses no difﬁculty as period length goes to 0, the same is not true for imperfect public signals. Consider, for example, the imperfect monitoring prisoners’dilemma of section 7.2. We embed this game in continuous time, interpreting the discount factor δ as e−r , where r is the players’ common discount rate and is the length of the period. In each period of length , a signal is generated according to the distribution 7.2.1. In a unit length of time, there are −1 realizations of the public signal. For small , the signals over the unit length of time thus become arbitrarily informative in distinguishing between the events that the players had always exerted effort in that time interval, or one player had always shirked.14 Once the repeated game is embedded in continuous time, the monitoring distribution should reﬂect this embedding. In this section, we illustrate using an example motivated by Abreu, Milgrom, and Pearce (1991). We consider two possibilities. First, assume the public monitoring distribution is parameterized by as ρ(y¯ | a) =

e−β ,

if a = EE,

e−µ ,

otherwise,

with 0 < β < µ. When the period length is small, we can view the probability distribution as approximating a Poisson process, where the signal y constitutes an arrival (and signal y¯ denotes the absence of an arrival) of a “bad” signal, and where the instantaneous arrival rate is β if both players exert effort and µ otherwise. Observe that although taking → 0 does make players more patient in the sense that δ → 1, this limit also makes the signals uninformative (both p and q converge to 1), and so 14. This can be interpreted as an intuition for the observation in remark 9.2.1 that the sufﬁcient conditions for the public monitoring folk theorem concern only the statistical identiﬁability of deviations. There are no conditions on the informativeness of the signals.

9.8

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327

Short Period Length

the structural aspects of the model have changed. On the other hand, players unambiguously become patient as the preference parameter r goes to 0, because in this case δ → 1 whereas no other aspect of the model is affected. We saw in section 7.7.1 that a necessary and sufﬁcient condition for mutual effort to be played in a strongly symmetric equilibrium is (7.7.3), that is, δ[3ρ(y¯ | EE) − 2ρ(y¯ | SE)] ≥ 1, which becomes e−r (3e−β − 2e−µ ) > 1.

(9.8.1)

Taking r → 0 yields 3e−β − 2e−µ > 1, which is simply 3p − 2q > 1 (see (7.2.5)). Suppose we now make the period length arbitrarily small, ﬁxing the players’ discount rate r. The left side of (9.8.1) equals 1 and its derivative equals 2µ − 3β − r for = 0, so (9.8.1) holds for small > 0 if r < 2µ − 3β.

(9.8.2)

If players are sufﬁciently patient that (9.8.2) is satisﬁed, then from (7.7.1), the largest strongly symmetric PPE payoff converges to lim 2 −

→0

1 − e−β β > 0. =2− −β −µ e −e µ−β

Hence, in the “bad news” case, even for arbitrarily short period lengths, it is possible to support some effort in equilibrium. Consider now the “good news” case, where the public monitoring distribution is parameterized by as ρ(y¯ | a) =

1 − e−β ,

if a = EE,

1 − e−µ ,

otherwise,

with 0 < µ < β. The probability distribution approximates a Poisson process where the signal y¯ constitutes an arrival (and signal y denotes the absence of an arrival) of a “good” signal, and where the instantaneous arrival rate is β if both players exert effort and µ otherwise. In the current context, (7.7.3) becomes e−r (1 − 3e−β + 2e−µ ) > 1. Suppose we now make the period length arbitrarily small, ﬁxing the players’ discount rate r. Then, lim e−r (1 − 3e−β + 2e−µ ) = 0,

→0

implying that there is no strongly symmetric perfect public equilibrium with strictly positive payoffs.

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We see then a striking contrast between the “good news” and “bad news” cases. This contrast is exaggerated by the failure of pairwise identiﬁability. If, for example, the game has a product structure, with player i’s signal yi ∈ {yi , y¯i }, distributed as ρ(y¯i | ai ) =

1 − e−β ,

if ai = E,

1 − e−µ ,

if ai = S,

then it is possible to support some effort for small even in the “good news” case. An alternative to considering short period length is to directly analyze continuous time games with public monitoring. We content ourselves with the comment that there are appropriate analogs to many of the ideas in chapter 7 (see Sannikov 2004).

10 Private Strategies in Games with Imperfect Public Monitoring

The techniques presented in chapters 7–9 provide the tools for examining perfect public equilibria. It is common to restrict attention to such equilibria, and doing so is without loss of generality in many cases. For example, the public-monitoring folk theorem (proposition 9.2.1) only relies on public strategies. Moreover, if games have a product structure, all sequential equilibrium outcomes are PPE outcomes (proposition 10.1.1). In this chapter, we explore the impact of allowing for private strategies, that is, strategies that are nontrivial functions of private (rather than public) histories.

10.1

Sequential Equilibrium

The appropriate equilibrium notion when players use private strategies is sequential equilibrium, which we deﬁne at the end of this section. This equilibrium notion combines sequential rationality with consistency conditions on each player’s beliefs over the private histories of other players. Any PPE is a sequential equilibrium. Because any pure strategy is realization equivalent to a public strategy (lemma 7.1.2), any pure strategy sequential equilibrium outcome is also a PPE outcome. Moreover, every mixed strategy is clearly realization equivalent to a mixture over public pure strategies. Thus every Nash equilibrium is realization equivalent to a Nash equilibrium in which each player’s mixture has only public pure strategies in its support. If the analysis could be restricted to either pure strategies or Nash equilibria, there is no need to consider private strategies. However, sequential rationality with mixing requires us to work with behavior strategies. A mixture over pure strategies need not be realization equivalent to any public behavior strategy. For example, consider the twice-played prisoners’ dilemma with imperfect monitoring and with the set of signals ¯ as in section 7.2. Let σˆ 1 and σ˜ 1 be the following pure strategies: {y, y}, σˆ 1 (∅) = σˆ 1 (y) ¯ = E,

σˆ 1 (y) = S,

and ¯ = σ˜ 1 (y) = S. σ˜ 1 (∅) = σ˜ 1 (y) Each of these strategies is obviously public, because behavior is speciﬁed only as a function of the public signal. Now consider a mixed strategy that assigns probability 329

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Private Strategies

1/2 to each of these public pure strategies. This is by construction a mixture over public strategies. However, the corresponding behavior strategy, denoted by σ1 , is given by σ1 (∅) = and

1 2

◦E+

1 2

◦ S,

σ1 (a1 , y) =

E, if (a1 , y) = (E, y), ¯

S,

otherwise.

This is a private strategy, as the second-period action following signal y¯ depends on the player’s (private) period 1 action. Notice in particular that it does not sufﬁce to specify the second period action as a half/half mixture following signal y. ¯ Doing so assigns positive probability to player 1 histories of the form (E, y, ¯ S, ·) or (S, y, ¯ E, ·), which the half-half mixture of σˆ 1 and σ˜ 1 does not allow. As a consequence, there are mixed strategy Nash equilibria that are not realization equivalent to any Nash equilibrium in public behavior strategies. Restricting attention to public behavior strategies may then exclude some equilibrium outcomes that can be achieved with private strategies. Sequential equilibrium, originally deﬁned for ﬁnite extensive form games (Kreps and Wilson 1982b), has a straightforward deﬁnition in games of public monitoring if the distribution of public signals generated by every action proﬁle has full support. After any private history hti , player i’s belief over the private histories of the other players is then necessarily given by Bayes’ rule (even if player i had deviated in the history hti ). Let σ−i |ht = (σ1 |ht , . . . , σi−1 |ht , σi+1 |ht , . . . , σn |htn ). −i

1

i−1

i+1

Definition Suppose ρ(y | a) > 0 for all y ∈ Y and all a ∈ A. A strategy proﬁle σ is a sequen-

10.1.1 tial equilibrium of the repeated game with public % t monitoring if, for all private t t t histories hi , σi |h is a best reply to E[σ−i |h % hi ]. i

−i

A sequential equilibrium outcome can fail to be a PPE outcome only if players are randomizing and at least one player’s choice is a nontrivial function of his own realized actions as well as his signals. Conditioning on his period t−1 action is of value to player i (because that action itself is private) only if player i’s prediction of others’ period t continuation play depends on i’s action. Even if player i’s best responses are independent of his beliefs about others’ continuation play, appropriately specifying his period t best response as a function of his past actions may create new incentives beyond those achievable in public strategies. Both possibilities require the informativeness of the period t−1 public signal about others’ period t−1 actions to depend on player i’s period t−1 action. This is not the case in games with a product structure (section 9.5), suggesting the following result (Fudenberg and Levine 1994, theorem 5.2):1 Proposition Suppose A is ﬁnite, the game has a product structure, and the short-lived players’

10.1.1 actions are observable. The set of sequential equilibrium payoffs is given by E (δ), the set of PPE payoffs. 1. Intuitively, a sequential equilibrium in a public monitoring game without full-support monitoring is a proﬁle such that after every private history, player i is best responding to the behavior of the other players, given beliefs over the private histories of the other players that are minimally consistent with his own private history.

10.2

10.2

■

331

A Reduced-Form Example

A Reduced-Form Example

We ﬁrst illustrate the potential advantages of private strategies in a two-period game. The ﬁrst-period stage game is (yet again) the prisoners’ dilemma stage game from ﬁgure 1.2.1, reproduced on the left in ﬁgure 10.2.1, and the second period game is given on the right. We think of the second-period game as representing the equilibrium continuation payoffs in an inﬁnitely repeated game, here collapsed into a stage game to simplify the analysis and focus attention on the effects of private strategies. As the labeling and payoffs suggest, we will think of R as a rewarding action and P as a punishing action. The payoff ties in the second-period subgame are necessary for the type of equilibrium we construct. Section 10.4 shows that we can obtain such a pattern of continuation payoffs in the inﬁnitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma. In keeping with this interpretation, we let payoffs in the two-period game, given period 1 and period 2 payoff proﬁles u1 and u2 , be given by (1 − δ)u1 + δu2 . The public monitoring distribution is given by (7.2.1), where the signals {y, y} ¯ are distributed according to p, ρ(y¯ | a) = q, r,

if a = EE, if a = ES or SE,

(10.2.1)

if a = SS.

We assume p=

9 10 ,

q = 45 ,

r = 15 ,

and

δ=

25 27 .

(10.2.2)

Observe that p − q is small, so that any incentives based on shifting the distribution of signals from p ◦ y¯ + (1 − p) ◦ y to q ◦ y¯ + (1 − q) ◦ y are weak. 10.2.1 Pure Strategies Suppose ﬁrst that the players do not have access to a public correlating device. Then the best pure-strategy symmetric perfect public equilibrium payoff is obtained by playing

E E

2, 2

S

3, −1

S

R

P

−1, 3

R

8 8 5, 5

0, 85

0, 0

P

8 5, 0

0, 0

Figure 10.2.1 The two-period game for section 10.2, with the ﬁrst-period game on the left, and the second period on the right.

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EE in the ﬁrst period, followed by RR in the second if the ﬁrst-period signal is y¯ and 2 40 9 8 (2) + 25 PP otherwise. This provides an expected payoff of 27 27 10 5 = 27 . The ﬁrst-period incentive constraint in the equilibrium we have just presented, that players prefer effort to shirking, is (1 − δ)2 + δp 85 ≥ (1 − δ)3 + δq 85 . Given the values from (10.2.2), this incentive constraint holds with strict inequality (40/27 > 38/27). There is then a sense in which too much of the potential expected payoff in the game is expended in creating incentives, suggesting that a higher payoff could be achieved if incentives could be more ﬁnely tuned. 10.2.2 Public Correlation Suppose now players have access to a public correlating device, allowing for a ﬁner tuning of incentives. The best pure-strategy strongly symmetric PPE payoff is now given by strategies that prescribe E in the ﬁrst period, R in the second period following signal y, ¯ and R with probability φ (with P otherwise) in the second period following signal y. The largest possible payoff is given by setting φ equal to the value that just satisﬁes the incentive constraint for effort in the ﬁrst period, or (1 − δ)(2) + δ p 85 + (1 − p)φ 85 = (1 − δ)(3) + δ q 85 + (1 − q)φ 85 . Under (10.2.2), this equality is solved by φ = 1/2 and the corresponding expected payoff is 42/27. Note that this exceeds the payoff 40/27 achieved without the correlating device. 10.2.3 Mixed Public Strategies The signals in this game are more informative about player 1’s action when player 2 shirks than when she exerts effort. As a result, shirking with positive probability in the ﬁrst period can improve incentives. We have seen examples of this possibility in sections 7.7.2, 8.4.1, and 8.4.5. Let α be the probability that each player i plays E in the ﬁrst period. Assume that RR is played in the second period after the ﬁrst-period signal y, ¯ and that φ is again the probability of playing RR after signal y. Then the incentive constraint for the ﬁrst-period mixture between effort and shirking is α (1 − δ)2 + δ p 85 + (1 − p)φ 85 + (1 − α) (1 − δ)(−1) + δ q 85 + (1 − q)φ 85 = α (1 − δ)(3) + δ q 85 + (1 − q)φ 85 + (1 − α) δ r 85 + (1 − r)φ 85 .

(10.2.3)

The left side of this equality is the payoff to E and the right side the payoff to S, where α and (1 − α) are the probabilities that the opponent exerts effort and shirks.

10.2

■

333

A Reduced-Form Example

We can solve for φ=

11 − 10α . 2(6 − 5α)

(10.2.4)

This fraction exceeds 1/2 whenever α < 1. Hence, ﬁrst-period mixtures allow incentives to be created with a smaller threat of second-period punishment, reﬂecting the more informative monitoring. This increased informativeness is purchased at the cost of some shirking in the ﬁrst period. Substituting (10.2.4) into (10.2.3) to obtain expected payoffs gives 224 − 152α − 30α 2 . 27(6 − 5α) √ 2 For α ∈ [0, 1], this is maximized at α = 65 − 15 3 = 0.969, with a value 1.5566 > 42/27. The beneﬁts of better monitoring outweigh the costs of shirking, and mixed strategies thus allow a (slightly) higher payoff than is possible under pure strategies. 10.2.4 Private Strategies Because the signals about player 1 are particularly informative when 2 shirks, it is natural to ask whether we could do even better by punishing 1 only after a bad signal was observed when 2 shirked. This is a private strategy proﬁle. Each player not only mixes but conditions future behavior on the outcome of the mixture. Suppose players mix between E and S in the ﬁrst period. After observing the signal y, ¯ R is played in the second period. After signal y, a player potentially mixes between R and P , but attaches positive probability to the punishment action P only if that player played S in the ﬁrst period. Let α again be the probability placed on E in the ﬁrst period, and now let ξ denote the probability that a player chooses R in the second period after having chosen S in the ﬁrst period and observed signal y. Players choose R for sure after E in the ﬁrst period, regardless of signal, or after S but observing signal y. ¯ Figure 10.2.2 illustrates these strategies with an automaton. The automaton does not describe the strategy proﬁle; rather, each players’ behavior is described by an automaton (see remark 2.3.1). The proﬁle we describe is symmetric, so the automaton description is common. However, because the strategy described is private, players may end up in different states.

Sy

wξ

wα w0

E y , Ey , Sy

wR

Figure 10.2.2 The automaton of the private strategy described in section 10.2.4. Subscripts on states indicate the speciﬁed behavior.

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Private Strategies

The incentive constraint for the ﬁrst-period mixture is α (1 − δ)2 + δ 85 + (1 − α) (1 − δ)(−1) + δ q 85 + (1 − q)ξ 85 = α (1 − δ)(3) + δ 85 + (1 − α) δ r 85 + (1 − r)ξ 85 . Solving for ξ gives

11 − 12α , 12(1 − α) which we use to calculate the expected payoff as 29 α + 56 9 . Maximizing α subject 11 to + the constraint ξ ∈ [0, 1] gives α = 11/12 (and ξ = 0), with expected payoff 29 12 56 = 1.5864. We thus have the following ranking of payoffs: 9 ξ=

1.4815 pure strategies

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